Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2046
Nathan P. Jones, Irina A. Chindea, Daniel Weisz Argomedo, John Sullivan
This article assesses Mexico’s organized crime alliance and subgroup network structures. Through social network analysis (SNA) of data from Lantia Consultores, a consulting firm in Mexico that specializes in the analysis of public policies, it demonstrates differential alliance structures within Mexico’s bipolar illicit network system. The Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación’s (CJNG) alliance structure is top-down and hierarchical, while the Sinaloa Cartel is denser, particularly in the broader Tierra Caliente region. Additionally, our analysis found a sparse overall network with many isolates (groups with no relations to other groups) and disconnected components. Further, we identified organized crime networks that might fill future power vacuums based on their network positions, following state or rival high-value targeting of major cartels. The implications of these findings are discussed, and policy recommendations are provided.
{"title":"A Social Network Analysis of Mexico’s Dark Network Alliance Structure","authors":"Nathan P. Jones, Irina A. Chindea, Daniel Weisz Argomedo, John Sullivan","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2046","url":null,"abstract":"This article assesses Mexico’s organized crime alliance and subgroup network structures. Through social network analysis (SNA) of data from Lantia Consultores, a consulting firm in Mexico that specializes in the analysis of public policies, it demonstrates differential alliance structures within Mexico’s bipolar illicit network system. The Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación’s (CJNG) alliance structure is top-down and hierarchical, while the Sinaloa Cartel is denser, particularly in the broader Tierra Caliente region. Additionally, our analysis found a sparse overall network with many isolates (groups with no relations to other groups) and disconnected components. Further, we identified organized crime networks that might fill future power vacuums based on their network positions, following state or rival high-value targeting of major cartels. The implications of these findings are discussed, and policy recommendations are provided.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44460001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2088
Tricia Bacon
{"title":"Asal, Victor, Brian J. Phillips, and R. Karl Rethemeyer. Insurgent Terrorism: Intergroup Relationships and the Killing of Civilians. Oxford University Press, 2022","authors":"Tricia Bacon","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2088","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45108019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2087
J. Torrence
{"title":"Technology, Data, & The Future of Warfare: A Review Essay by James Torrence","authors":"J. Torrence","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2087","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41435516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2034
Randell Yi
This article tests two competing candidate theories of security cooperation provision contained in the literature against a subset of stated strategic objectives by assessing whether the amount of aid spent over time correlates with intended outcomes. One is based on the principal-agent problem, while the other derives from the organizational behavior model. The focus is solely on fragile states since they represent the most policy-relevant and challenging cases. Quantitative analysis utilizes existing datasets to provide proxy measures for neopatrimonialism, praetorianism, and combat effectiveness, corresponding to political, political/military, and military dimensions of security cooperation efficacy, respectively. The results challenge the conventional wisdom that increasing foreign aid merely feeds corruption and that to bolster foreign militaries is to beg for a coup. Controlling for economic aid and GDP per capita, both small and large military assistance packages strongly correlate with a reduction in neopatrimonialism and deaths due to violent conflict and terrorism in recipient nations. While small aid programs appear to temper the risk of a coup, this relationship does not hold for large ones. This research also calls into question the oft-assumed degree to which principal-agent problems and organizational behavior hamper effective aid provision.
{"title":"Go Big or Go Home? Right-Sizing Security Cooperation to Fragile States","authors":"Randell Yi","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2034","url":null,"abstract":"This article tests two competing candidate theories of security cooperation provision contained in the literature against a subset of stated strategic objectives by assessing whether the amount of aid spent over time correlates with intended outcomes. One is based on the principal-agent problem, while the other derives from the organizational behavior model. The focus is solely on fragile states since they represent the most policy-relevant and challenging cases. Quantitative analysis utilizes existing datasets to provide proxy measures for neopatrimonialism, praetorianism, and combat effectiveness, corresponding to political, political/military, and military dimensions of security cooperation efficacy, respectively. The results challenge the conventional wisdom that increasing foreign aid merely feeds corruption and that to bolster foreign militaries is to beg for a coup. Controlling for economic aid and GDP per capita, both small and large military assistance packages strongly correlate with a reduction in neopatrimonialism and deaths due to violent conflict and terrorism in recipient nations. While small aid programs appear to temper the risk of a coup, this relationship does not hold for large ones. This research also calls into question the oft-assumed degree to which principal-agent problems and organizational behavior hamper effective aid provision.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41356349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2044
Haim Yogev, R. Cohen, Eyal Lewin
Morris Janowitz believed that for an army to be victorious it needs to be led by as many intellectual forces as possible, just as any organization needs organizational intellectualism to prosper. It is agreed in scholarly literature that the intellectual must author various articles and manifestos to express their viewpoints, mindset, and philosophy in the public sphere. Based on Janowitz’s belief and using the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) as a case study, this research offers a model for a generic research methodology that can be practiced elsewhere. The mission was to find the extent to which the higher echelons of the Israeli military engage in writing academic articles concerning matters of strategy and army professionalism. Among other conclusions, the authors point out that, with certain reservations considered, the number of articles authored by the IDF’s senior officers proved to be low. If publication indeed reflects intellectualism, the few articles produced over seven decades by the IDF’s leading echelon ought to sound a warning for Israel’s military decision-makers.
{"title":"Military Leadership by Intellectual Officers: A Case Study of the IDF","authors":"Haim Yogev, R. Cohen, Eyal Lewin","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2044","url":null,"abstract":"Morris Janowitz believed that for an army to be victorious it needs to be led by as many intellectual forces as possible, just as any organization needs organizational intellectualism to prosper. It is agreed in scholarly literature that the intellectual must author various articles and manifestos to express their viewpoints, mindset, and philosophy in the public sphere. Based on Janowitz’s belief and using the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) as a case study, this research offers a model for a generic research methodology that can be practiced elsewhere. The mission was to find the extent to which the higher echelons of the Israeli military engage in writing academic articles concerning matters of strategy and army professionalism. Among other conclusions, the authors point out that, with certain reservations considered, the number of articles authored by the IDF’s senior officers proved to be low. If publication indeed reflects intellectualism, the few articles produced over seven decades by the IDF’s leading echelon ought to sound a warning for Israel’s military decision-makers.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43475792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2033
İrem Işık, Ömer Bi̇ldi̇k, Tayanç Molla
According to the U.S. Department of Justice, in 2014, the Russian government-connected Internet Research Agency (IRA) initiated an information operation on social media platforms to manipulate the U.S. population concerning the 2016 U.S. presidential elections. This has revealed that social media platforms enable the spread of fake news among the masses globally and can thus become a means of disrupting the electoral process for foreign actors. This article addresses state-sponsored disinformation operations on social media that target foreign voters. It considers it crucial to counter such operations to protect the security and integrity of the elections in the digital age, which is a vital national interest. Despite some mitigation efforts given after 2016, social media platforms continued to be exploited by the States seeking to influence the outcome of foreign elections through the dissemination of false information. This article argues that international law could play an essential role in combating state-sponsored disinformation operations. In this regard, it elaborates on sovereignty and non-intervention principles, and the right to self-determination.
{"title":"Securing Elections Through International Law: A Tool for Combatting Disinformation Operations?","authors":"İrem Işık, Ömer Bi̇ldi̇k, Tayanç Molla","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.15.4.2033","url":null,"abstract":"According to the U.S. Department of Justice, in 2014, the Russian government-connected Internet Research Agency (IRA) initiated an information operation on social media platforms to manipulate the U.S. population concerning the 2016 U.S. presidential elections. This has revealed that social media platforms enable the spread of fake news among the masses globally and can thus become a means of disrupting the electoral process for foreign actors. This article addresses state-sponsored disinformation operations on social media that target foreign voters. It considers it crucial to counter such operations to protect the security and integrity of the elections in the digital age, which is a vital national interest. Despite some mitigation efforts given after 2016, social media platforms continued to be exploited by the States seeking to influence the outcome of foreign elections through the dissemination of false information. This article argues that international law could play an essential role in combating state-sponsored disinformation operations. In this regard, it elaborates on sovereignty and non-intervention principles, and the right to self-determination.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46786786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1975
Edward J. Hagerty
{"title":"1939: A People’s History of the Coming of the Second World War. By Frederick Taylor. New York: W. W. Norton & Company. 2019.","authors":"Edward J. Hagerty","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1975","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1975","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47759210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1934
Y. Karimi, A. Kholi, Anne Hesselink, Johannes H Prinsloo, Stella Bhawanie, J. Andreu, Adekunle G. Ahmed, Wagdy Loza
The Assessment and Treatment of Radicalization Scale (ATRS) is designed to quantitatively measure Muslim extremists’ ideologies regarding risk areas that are reported in the literature. Utilizing the scale, in this study, using a convenience sample of 1769 from 10 countries (Australia, Canada, Egypt, India, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Spain, and South Africa) responded to the ATRS. Results supported previous findings about the reliability and validity of the Assessment and Treatment of Radicalization Scale (ATRS, formerly known as Belief Diversity Scale BDS, Loza, 2007) for assessing Muslim extremists. Suggested cut off scores to use for identifying possible extremists are provided.
{"title":"The Validity of the Assessment and Treatment of Radicalization Scale: A Psychometric Instrument for Measuring Severity of Extremist Muslim Beliefs","authors":"Y. Karimi, A. Kholi, Anne Hesselink, Johannes H Prinsloo, Stella Bhawanie, J. Andreu, Adekunle G. Ahmed, Wagdy Loza","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1934","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1934","url":null,"abstract":"The Assessment and Treatment of Radicalization Scale (ATRS) is designed to quantitatively measure Muslim extremists’ ideologies regarding risk areas that are reported in the literature. Utilizing the scale, in this study, using a convenience sample of 1769 from 10 countries (Australia, Canada, Egypt, India, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Spain, and South Africa) responded to the ATRS. Results supported previous findings about the reliability and validity of the Assessment and Treatment of Radicalization Scale (ATRS, formerly known as Belief Diversity Scale BDS, Loza, 2007) for assessing Muslim extremists. Suggested cut off scores to use for identifying possible extremists are provided.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41406554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1884
Charles J. Koch
This article tests the power transition theory using relative military power within a dyad pair. The author hypothesizes that when a dyad pair achieves relative military power parity, the two states are likely to initiate war. Furthermore, when a dyad pair no longer maintains relative military power parity, the probability of war between the two states decreases. Although the sample population used to test this hypothesis is small (n=3), the mixed-method analysis indicates support to the power transition theory. Furthermore, results are more substantial when using military expenditure and surplus domestic when compared to results using military personnel and surplus domestic product. No statistically significant difference exists (p=.99) when comparing military expenditure and surplus domestic product with a combination of military expenditure, military personnel, and surplus domestic product. These results indicate that relative military power possesses the potential to provide researchers an additional quantitative measure to test the power transition theory. Although these initial results are promising, further research is required to test a larger sample population of dyads.
{"title":"Testing the Power Transition Theory with Relative Military Power","authors":"Charles J. Koch","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1884","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1884","url":null,"abstract":"This article tests the power transition theory using relative military power within a dyad pair. The author hypothesizes that when a dyad pair achieves relative military power parity, the two states are likely to initiate war. Furthermore, when a dyad pair no longer maintains relative military power parity, the probability of war between the two states decreases. Although the sample population used to test this hypothesis is small (n=3), the mixed-method analysis indicates support to the power transition theory. Furthermore, results are more substantial when using military expenditure and surplus domestic when compared to results using military personnel and surplus domestic product. No statistically significant difference exists (p=.99) when comparing military expenditure and surplus domestic product with a combination of military expenditure, military personnel, and surplus domestic product. These results indicate that relative military power possesses the potential to provide researchers an additional quantitative measure to test the power transition theory. Although these initial results are promising, further research is required to test a larger sample population of dyads.","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46010253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-01DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1978
Pamela Ruiz
{"title":"MS-13: The Making of America’s Most Notorious Gang. By Steven Dudley. Toronto, Canada: Hanover Square Press, 2020.","authors":"Pamela Ruiz","doi":"10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1978","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.14.3.1978","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37950,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Strategic Security","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44015331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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