Pub Date : 2020-05-03DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2019.1700541
Joshua D. Freilich, V. Bejan, William S. Parkin, S. Chermak, Jeff Gruenewald
ABSTRACT This research examines the efficacy of 15 policy interventions and high-profile events on fatal violence committed by far-right extremists in the United States through the theoretical frameworks of deterrence, situational crime prevention, backlash, and political encouragement. We use a multivariate structural vector autoregressive process to analyse monthly time-series data to investigate the impact of these interventions on fatal far-right violence over a 25-year period. Controlling for variation in the national homicide rate, there was a decrease in far-right ideologically motivated homicide events after 9/11 and the passing of the Patriot Act. We also found an increase in non-ideological homicides after 9/11 and the Patriot Act, and a decrease after the Hate Crimes Act, Fort Hood Shooting and the Boston Bombing. Overall, it appears that most federal legislation, civil lawsuits, and changes to federal investigative guidelines, have no significant impact on far-right ideological violence and a limited impact on non-ideological violence.
{"title":"An intervention analysis of fatal far-right extremist violence within a vector-autoregressive framework","authors":"Joshua D. Freilich, V. Bejan, William S. Parkin, S. Chermak, Jeff Gruenewald","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1700541","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1700541","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This research examines the efficacy of 15 policy interventions and high-profile events on fatal violence committed by far-right extremists in the United States through the theoretical frameworks of deterrence, situational crime prevention, backlash, and political encouragement. We use a multivariate structural vector autoregressive process to analyse monthly time-series data to investigate the impact of these interventions on fatal far-right violence over a 25-year period. Controlling for variation in the national homicide rate, there was a decrease in far-right ideologically motivated homicide events after 9/11 and the passing of the Patriot Act. We also found an increase in non-ideological homicides after 9/11 and the Patriot Act, and a decrease after the Hate Crimes Act, Fort Hood Shooting and the Boston Bombing. Overall, it appears that most federal legislation, civil lawsuits, and changes to federal investigative guidelines, have no significant impact on far-right ideological violence and a limited impact on non-ideological violence.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"13 1","pages":"143 - 171"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1700541","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42415001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-05-03DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2019.1700540
S. Fahey, Victor Asal
ABSTRACT The purpose of this research was to investigate whether terrorist attacks against schools and other educational institutions were more common in states with little respect for human rights for a sample of 75 countries from 1981–2010 using the Global Terrorism Database. Specifically, we examined whether religious repression by governments, state terrorism against civilians and female political and economic empowerment would influence attacks against schools and terrorist attacks against any targets. We found that government oppression of religious expression was associated with increased terrorist attacks against educational targets and that some levels of government violence against its citizens was associated with both increased terrorist attacks against educational targets and, to a lesser degree, all targets. Greater political empowerment of women was associated with increased terrorist attacks against educational targets. On the contrary, increased economic rights for women was associated with some decreases in terrorist attacks against educational targets and to a lesser degree, against any type of target. We concluded that government behaviour at the state level can affect terrorist behaviour and targeting by terrorist individuals or organizations when governments manufacture grievance by denying civilians human rights, including rights to religious expression, safety and security, and political and economic rights for women.
{"title":"Lowest of the low: why some countries suffer terrorist attacks against schools","authors":"S. Fahey, Victor Asal","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1700540","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1700540","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The purpose of this research was to investigate whether terrorist attacks against schools and other educational institutions were more common in states with little respect for human rights for a sample of 75 countries from 1981–2010 using the Global Terrorism Database. Specifically, we examined whether religious repression by governments, state terrorism against civilians and female political and economic empowerment would influence attacks against schools and terrorist attacks against any targets. We found that government oppression of religious expression was associated with increased terrorist attacks against educational targets and that some levels of government violence against its citizens was associated with both increased terrorist attacks against educational targets and, to a lesser degree, all targets. Greater political empowerment of women was associated with increased terrorist attacks against educational targets. On the contrary, increased economic rights for women was associated with some decreases in terrorist attacks against educational targets and to a lesser degree, against any type of target. We concluded that government behaviour at the state level can affect terrorist behaviour and targeting by terrorist individuals or organizations when governments manufacture grievance by denying civilians human rights, including rights to religious expression, safety and security, and political and economic rights for women.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"13 1","pages":"101 - 124"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1700540","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49632016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-05-03DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2019.1680853
Matthew M. Sweeney, Meghan Kubit
ABSTRACT The Islamic State captured the world’s attention with the declaration of a global caliphate in 2014. In the subsequent 3 years, the Islamic State showed significant success at attracting foreign fighters, inspiring international terrorist attacks, and maintaining geographic control over portions of Iraq and Syria. The Islamic State’s vibrant online presence amplified this success via a sophisticated social media campaign and a robust propaganda output through imagery and visual multimedia. We expand on the prior work on Islamic State propaganda by asking, how does the Islamic State frame its violent video propaganda in the presence or absence of religious verses? We will answer this question using the SITE Intelligence Group’s terrorist video database. We applied framing theory and developed a theoretical framework built on the scholarly literature on violence in video propaganda and religious marketing. We find that the Islamic State intermixes violence and religion for the same purposes within its propaganda; namely, in seeking to legitimize itself, recruit from a broader audience, and intimidate its opponents. We further find specific differences between the perceived problems, solutions, and motivations in Islamic State propaganda and how the Islamic State uses religion and violence to address particular demographics.
{"title":"Blood and scripture: how the Islamic State frames religion in violent video propaganda","authors":"Matthew M. Sweeney, Meghan Kubit","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1680853","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1680853","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The Islamic State captured the world’s attention with the declaration of a global caliphate in 2014. In the subsequent 3 years, the Islamic State showed significant success at attracting foreign fighters, inspiring international terrorist attacks, and maintaining geographic control over portions of Iraq and Syria. The Islamic State’s vibrant online presence amplified this success via a sophisticated social media campaign and a robust propaganda output through imagery and visual multimedia. We expand on the prior work on Islamic State propaganda by asking, how does the Islamic State frame its violent video propaganda in the presence or absence of religious verses? We will answer this question using the SITE Intelligence Group’s terrorist video database. We applied framing theory and developed a theoretical framework built on the scholarly literature on violence in video propaganda and religious marketing. We find that the Islamic State intermixes violence and religion for the same purposes within its propaganda; namely, in seeking to legitimize itself, recruit from a broader audience, and intimidate its opponents. We further find specific differences between the perceived problems, solutions, and motivations in Islamic State propaganda and how the Islamic State uses religion and violence to address particular demographics.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"13 1","pages":"172 - 190"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1680853","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43563581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-05-03DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2020.1776965
G. Ligon
Welcome to the thirteenth volume, second issue of the Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways towards Terrorism and Genocide Journal. We have four data-heavy articles to share with you in this Issue, from Matthew Sweeney and Meghan Kubit’s analysis of the Islamic State’s framing of religion amongst its violent propaganda to Gary Uzonyi’s investigation of the relationship between the quality of a country’s bureaucracy and the severity of mass violence carried out by the state. True to DAC’s mission of outstanding scholarship across disciplines, the authors vary in academic specializations and contributed new knowledge for our field using a variety of methods. In the first article, Susan Fahey and Victor Asal explore the factors that influence terrorist attacks on schools and other educational institutions. Using Global Terrorism Database data from 75 countries from 1981 to 2010, Drs. Fahey and Asal find that restrictions of human rights by the state, such as dampening religious expression and limiting women’s rights, is associated with increased attacks on education targets. The second article by Gary Uzonyi examined the relationship between bureaucratic quality and state violence to contrast the differences in thinking between firstand second-generation genocide scholars. Dr Uzonyi’s findings support arguments from the first-generation scholar camp that the quality of the bureaucracy is important to the ability of a government to commit mass violence and its severity. The findings apply to cases of genocide and politicide in less developed states as well. In the third article, Dr Joshua Freilich and an All-Star Collaborator Team examine the effect of policy on far-right extremist homicides in the United States. Using a monthly time series over 25 years, the authors find that there is no significant impact on far-right fatal violence from existing policy interventions. Overall, they observe that current federal legislation, civil lawsuits, and changes to federal investigative guidelines, have no significant impact on far-right ideological violence and a limited impact on non-ideological violence. Our final article focuses on the use of religion in non-state actor propaganda. Matthew Sweeney and Meghan Kubit expand on prior work of the Islamic State’s propaganda by examining how the group mixed violence with religion in its video propaganda, pulling from SITE Intelligence Group as a unique data source. Drs. Sweeney and Kubit found that the Islamic State leveraged this combination for legitimization and intimidation, and specifically for justifying the use of violence against specific demographics. Finally, I need to recognize our outgoing Editorial Assistant Michael Logan, who will join Kennesaw State University as an Assistant Professor of Criminal Justice. Logan has worked tirelessly over the past year to improve your journal, and he has raised our DYNAMICS OF ASYMMETRIC CONFLICT 2020, VOL. 13, NO. 2, 99–100 https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.202
{"title":"Letter from the editor","authors":"G. Ligon","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2020.1776965","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2020.1776965","url":null,"abstract":"Welcome to the thirteenth volume, second issue of the Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways towards Terrorism and Genocide Journal. We have four data-heavy articles to share with you in this Issue, from Matthew Sweeney and Meghan Kubit’s analysis of the Islamic State’s framing of religion amongst its violent propaganda to Gary Uzonyi’s investigation of the relationship between the quality of a country’s bureaucracy and the severity of mass violence carried out by the state. True to DAC’s mission of outstanding scholarship across disciplines, the authors vary in academic specializations and contributed new knowledge for our field using a variety of methods. In the first article, Susan Fahey and Victor Asal explore the factors that influence terrorist attacks on schools and other educational institutions. Using Global Terrorism Database data from 75 countries from 1981 to 2010, Drs. Fahey and Asal find that restrictions of human rights by the state, such as dampening religious expression and limiting women’s rights, is associated with increased attacks on education targets. The second article by Gary Uzonyi examined the relationship between bureaucratic quality and state violence to contrast the differences in thinking between firstand second-generation genocide scholars. Dr Uzonyi’s findings support arguments from the first-generation scholar camp that the quality of the bureaucracy is important to the ability of a government to commit mass violence and its severity. The findings apply to cases of genocide and politicide in less developed states as well. In the third article, Dr Joshua Freilich and an All-Star Collaborator Team examine the effect of policy on far-right extremist homicides in the United States. Using a monthly time series over 25 years, the authors find that there is no significant impact on far-right fatal violence from existing policy interventions. Overall, they observe that current federal legislation, civil lawsuits, and changes to federal investigative guidelines, have no significant impact on far-right ideological violence and a limited impact on non-ideological violence. Our final article focuses on the use of religion in non-state actor propaganda. Matthew Sweeney and Meghan Kubit expand on prior work of the Islamic State’s propaganda by examining how the group mixed violence with religion in its video propaganda, pulling from SITE Intelligence Group as a unique data source. Drs. Sweeney and Kubit found that the Islamic State leveraged this combination for legitimization and intimidation, and specifically for justifying the use of violence against specific demographics. Finally, I need to recognize our outgoing Editorial Assistant Michael Logan, who will join Kennesaw State University as an Assistant Professor of Criminal Justice. Logan has worked tirelessly over the past year to improve your journal, and he has raised our DYNAMICS OF ASYMMETRIC CONFLICT 2020, VOL. 13, NO. 2, 99–100 https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.202","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"13 1","pages":"100 - 99"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2020.1776965","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44833394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2019.1630744
Carol K. Winkler, Kareem el-Damanhoury, Aaron Dicker, Y. Luu, W. Kaczkowski, Nagham El-Karhili
ABSTRACT To address if and how militant, non-state actors in the online environment react to on-the-ground military pressures facing their competitors, this study explores AQAP’s visual media campaign during the 2016–2017 military operations to retake Mosul and Raqqa from ISIS control. Using chi-square analyses and content analysis, we analyzed 4027 images from Inspire, Jihad Recollections, and al-Masra to reveal how the onset of the ISIS battles corresponded to changes in AQAP’s strategic use of visual content, presentational form, and language-based audience targeting. Significant changes in visual content related to the display of institutional power structures rather than identity markers. Shifts in presentational elements involved image positioning (foreground/background) and viewer distance (intimate/personal vs. social public). Language-based targeting strategies between English and Arabic publications, however, demonstrated the most substantial change from before to during the battles. The study concludes that a complete understanding of the military-media nexus of militant, non-state groups requires consideration of military pressure on competing groups.
{"title":"Considering the military-media nexus from the perspective of competing groups: the case of ISIS and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula","authors":"Carol K. Winkler, Kareem el-Damanhoury, Aaron Dicker, Y. Luu, W. Kaczkowski, Nagham El-Karhili","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1630744","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1630744","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT To address if and how militant, non-state actors in the online environment react to on-the-ground military pressures facing their competitors, this study explores AQAP’s visual media campaign during the 2016–2017 military operations to retake Mosul and Raqqa from ISIS control. Using chi-square analyses and content analysis, we analyzed 4027 images from Inspire, Jihad Recollections, and al-Masra to reveal how the onset of the ISIS battles corresponded to changes in AQAP’s strategic use of visual content, presentational form, and language-based audience targeting. Significant changes in visual content related to the display of institutional power structures rather than identity markers. Shifts in presentational elements involved image positioning (foreground/background) and viewer distance (intimate/personal vs. social public). Language-based targeting strategies between English and Arabic publications, however, demonstrated the most substantial change from before to during the battles. The study concludes that a complete understanding of the military-media nexus of militant, non-state groups requires consideration of military pressure on competing groups.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"13 1","pages":"23 - 3"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1630744","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48646857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2019.1650385
Michael Burch, Leslie Ochreiter
ABSTRACT Why do some rebel groups fractionalize during intrastate conflict? The focus of this article is on understanding a particular phenomenon within fragmentation during civil war: the emergence of viable splinter factions. Splinter factions are when a new rebel group emerges from an ongoing violent challenge against the state and concurrently launches their own violent campaign rather than continue to pool resources to mount a more effective fight. In this article, we outline how the organizational characteristics of the original rebel movement can create several conditions in which splinter factions will emerge. Organizational decisions regarding, mobilization, central command, and territorial control creates opportunities for aggrieved members within the coalition to strike out on their own. Support for the theory is found through statistical tests on the internal characteristics of rebel groups demonstrating the importance of rebel group structure in understanding contemporary conflict processes.
{"title":"The emergence of splinter factions in intrastate conflict","authors":"Michael Burch, Leslie Ochreiter","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1650385","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1650385","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Why do some rebel groups fractionalize during intrastate conflict? The focus of this article is on understanding a particular phenomenon within fragmentation during civil war: the emergence of viable splinter factions. Splinter factions are when a new rebel group emerges from an ongoing violent challenge against the state and concurrently launches their own violent campaign rather than continue to pool resources to mount a more effective fight. In this article, we outline how the organizational characteristics of the original rebel movement can create several conditions in which splinter factions will emerge. Organizational decisions regarding, mobilization, central command, and territorial control creates opportunities for aggrieved members within the coalition to strike out on their own. Support for the theory is found through statistical tests on the internal characteristics of rebel groups demonstrating the importance of rebel group structure in understanding contemporary conflict processes.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"13 1","pages":"47 - 66"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1650385","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46342720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2019.1680855
Christofer Berglund, E. Souleimanov
ABSTRACT In the second half of the 1990s, the label “asymmetric” conflict rose to prominence among scholars and strategists, as a term for capturing the rising challenge that violent non-state actors posed to the liberal world order. However, the concept soon became a catch-phrase for a range of disparate phenomena, and other buzzwords arose to describe the threats of concern to decision-makers. Conceptual confusion beset the field. This article dissects the notion of asymmetric conflicts, and distinguishes between asymmetries involving differences in (1) status, (2) capabilities, or (3) strategies between belligerents. It argues that “asymmetric” conflicts can take numerous forms depending on the combination of differences present, and offers a blue-print for keeping track of the meaning of this concept in the hope of bringing greater precision to future debates.
{"title":"What is (not) asymmetric conflict? From conceptual stretching to conceptual structuring","authors":"Christofer Berglund, E. Souleimanov","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1680855","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1680855","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In the second half of the 1990s, the label “asymmetric” conflict rose to prominence among scholars and strategists, as a term for capturing the rising challenge that violent non-state actors posed to the liberal world order. However, the concept soon became a catch-phrase for a range of disparate phenomena, and other buzzwords arose to describe the threats of concern to decision-makers. Conceptual confusion beset the field. This article dissects the notion of asymmetric conflicts, and distinguishes between asymmetries involving differences in (1) status, (2) capabilities, or (3) strategies between belligerents. It argues that “asymmetric” conflicts can take numerous forms depending on the combination of differences present, and offers a blue-print for keeping track of the meaning of this concept in the hope of bringing greater precision to future debates.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"13 1","pages":"87 - 98"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1680855","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44914771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2019.1650384
Kyle Kattelman
ABSTRACT Do states contributing military forces to the Global War on Terror leave their citizens vulnerable to retaliatory terrorist attacks? Despite the vast amount of coverage dedicated to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, few studies have empirically tested whether this is the case. Taking a country-specific approach, this research investigates the military success of the Global War on Terror on a very specific objective − reducing the frequency of terrorist attacks from Al-Qaeda and its affiliates against the citizens of coalition states − to determine if military participation makes a state a target for retaliatory attacks via a backlash effect. Examining terrorist attack data against 53 contributing nations from 1998–2011, this study constructs a general framework for terrorist vulnerability from transnational attacks at the state level and tests whether military contributions to the GWOT, specifically boots on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq, result in a greater frequency of terrorist attacks from Al-Qaeda and Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations. The results show evidence of a backlash effect from Al-Qaeda core and affiliates, casting doubt on the effectiveness of military interventions to reduce transnational terrorism.
{"title":"Assessing success of the Global War on Terror: terrorist attack frequency and the backlash effect","authors":"Kyle Kattelman","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1650384","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1650384","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Do states contributing military forces to the Global War on Terror leave their citizens vulnerable to retaliatory terrorist attacks? Despite the vast amount of coverage dedicated to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, few studies have empirically tested whether this is the case. Taking a country-specific approach, this research investigates the military success of the Global War on Terror on a very specific objective − reducing the frequency of terrorist attacks from Al-Qaeda and its affiliates against the citizens of coalition states − to determine if military participation makes a state a target for retaliatory attacks via a backlash effect. Examining terrorist attack data against 53 contributing nations from 1998–2011, this study constructs a general framework for terrorist vulnerability from transnational attacks at the state level and tests whether military contributions to the GWOT, specifically boots on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq, result in a greater frequency of terrorist attacks from Al-Qaeda and Al-Qaeda-affiliated organizations. The results show evidence of a backlash effect from Al-Qaeda core and affiliates, casting doubt on the effectiveness of military interventions to reduce transnational terrorism.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"13 1","pages":"67 - 86"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1650384","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47509928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2019.1630745
Muhammad Feyyaz
ABSTRACT The central hypothesis of this article is that there are a large number of terrorist groups which prolifically employ strategic communication (stratcom), while paradoxically, there are others who markedly underutilize it, and therefore, fail to mobilize support for the professed cause. The decisive determinant for either of the two ends, it is argued, obtains in the intellectual endowment or its banality among the conspiratorial groupings. A case of stratcom by two leading Pakistani Taliban groups – Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and TTP – Jammat ul Ahrar – is systematically investigated. The analysis clearly engenders that these terrorist organizations are communication un-savvy, because, they are not only religiously and secularly less informed and increasingly rhetorical but are intellectually far less creative to articulate a people inspired rhetorical vision. The brutalization of the civilians further trivializes their discourses. They have thus largely failed to evoke meaningful social mobilization. Besides further elaborating on the findings, the conclusion reflects on a few limitations of the research, offers input for broadening the research scope of some of the key dimensions of terrorism literature and ends with the discussion on some policy implications.
本文的中心假设是，有大量的恐怖组织大量使用战略沟通(stratcom)，而矛盾的是，还有其他恐怖组织明显没有充分利用它，因此，未能动员支持公开宣称的事业。这两种目的的决定性的决定因素，在阴谋集团的智力禀赋或平庸中获得。两个主要的巴基斯坦塔利班组织-巴基斯坦塔利班运动(TTP)和TTP - Jammat ul Ahrar -的战略案件被系统地调查。分析清楚地表明，这些恐怖组织缺乏沟通能力，因为他们不仅在宗教上和世俗上缺乏信息，而且越来越多地修辞，而且在智力上也缺乏创造性，无法表达一个受人民启发的修辞愿景。对平民的残酷对待使他们的言论更加庸俗。因此，它们在很大程度上未能唤起有意义的社会动员。除了进一步阐述研究结果外，结论部分还反映了研究的一些局限性，为扩大恐怖主义文献的一些关键维度的研究范围提供了输入，并以讨论一些政策含义结束。
{"title":"Communication (un)savviness and the failure of terrorism: a case of Pakistani terrorist organizations","authors":"Muhammad Feyyaz","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2019.1630745","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1630745","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The central hypothesis of this article is that there are a large number of terrorist groups which prolifically employ strategic communication (stratcom), while paradoxically, there are others who markedly underutilize it, and therefore, fail to mobilize support for the professed cause. The decisive determinant for either of the two ends, it is argued, obtains in the intellectual endowment or its banality among the conspiratorial groupings. A case of stratcom by two leading Pakistani Taliban groups – Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and TTP – Jammat ul Ahrar – is systematically investigated. The analysis clearly engenders that these terrorist organizations are communication un-savvy, because, they are not only religiously and secularly less informed and increasingly rhetorical but are intellectually far less creative to articulate a people inspired rhetorical vision. The brutalization of the civilians further trivializes their discourses. They have thus largely failed to evoke meaningful social mobilization. Besides further elaborating on the findings, the conclusion reflects on a few limitations of the research, offers input for broadening the research scope of some of the key dimensions of terrorism literature and ends with the discussion on some policy implications.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"13 1","pages":"24 - 46"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2019.1630745","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45826964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2020.1726044
Gina Scott Logan, Michael K. Logan
Dear Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Readers: Welcome to the thirteenth volume, first issue of the Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways towards Terrorism and Genocide Journal. We have five exceptional articles to share with you in this Issue, ranging from Carol Winkler and colleagues’ analysis of alQaeda in the Arabian Peninsula visual media campaign to Kyle Kattelman’s research on the relationship between the Global War on Terror and terrorist attack frequency. While the authors vary in academic specializations, there are three themes across the articles in this Issue. The first theme is the focus on communication and media usage among violent nonstate actors. For example, in the first article, Carol Winkler and colleagues examine changes in al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s visual media campaign during the 2016–2017 military operations to retake Mosul and Raqqa from the Islamic State. After analysing over 4000 images from Inspire, Jihad Recollections, and al-Masra, the authors found that significant changes in the visual content related to institutional power structures as opposed to identity markers. Authors also found significant changes in languagebased strategies between English and Arabic before to during battles. The second article by Muhammad Feyyaz also touched on the theme of communication and media usage among violent non-state actors. More specifically, his research explores the strategic communication by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Jammat ul Ahrar. He finds that both terrorist organizations are communication un-savvy due to their increasingly rhetorical nature and emphasis on religious and secular claims. In addition, the brutalization of civilians lessens the influence of their strategic communication. The second theme in this Issue focuses on the factors that enhance asymmetric conflict. More specifically, in the third article, Michael Burch and Leslie Ochreiter examine why rebel groups fractionalize during intrastate conflict. In other words, their study focuses on why rebel groups fragment and engage in their own violent campaign as opposed to continuing to share resources within a larger group. The authors find that the organizational characteristics related to mobilization, central command, and territorial control drive the decision to fractionalize among rebel groups. The fourth article by Kyle T. Kattelman also emphasizes the second research theme underlying this Issue. This study uses terrorist attack data from 53 countries to examine how the Global War on Terror has influenced terrorist attacks perpetrated by Al-Qaeda and its affiliates against the citizens of coalition states. His findings suggest that military contributions to the Global War on Terror increase the frequency of terrorist attacks from Al-Qaeda and its affiliates suggestive of a backlash effect. The final theme in this Issue focuses on defining what is (not) asymmetric conflict. In particular, research by Christofer Berglund and Emil Aslan Souleima
亲爱的非对称冲突动力学读者:欢迎阅读《非对称冲突动力学:通往恐怖主义和种族灭绝的道路》杂志第13卷第一期。本期我们有五篇特别的文章与您分享，从Carol Winkler及其同事对基地组织在阿拉伯半岛的视觉媒体活动的分析，到Kyle Kattelman对全球反恐战争与恐怖袭击频率之间关系的研究。虽然作者的学术专业各不相同，但这期的文章有三个主题。第一个主题是关注暴力非国家行为者之间的沟通和媒体使用。例如，在第一篇文章中，Carol Winkler及其同事研究了2016-2017年从伊斯兰国手中夺回摩苏尔和拉卡的军事行动期间，基地组织在阿拉伯半岛的视觉媒体活动的变化。在分析了来自Inspire、Jihad memoections和al-Masra的4000多张图片后，作者发现，与身份标记相反，与机构权力结构相关的视觉内容发生了重大变化。作者还发现，在战争之前和战争期间，英语和阿拉伯语在基于语言的策略上发生了重大变化。Muhammad Feyyaz撰写的第二篇文章也触及暴力非国家行动者之间的沟通与媒体使用主题。更具体地说，他的研究探讨了巴基斯坦塔利班运动(Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan)和Jammat ul Ahrar的战略沟通。他发现这两个恐怖组织都缺乏沟通能力，因为他们越来越多地使用修辞手法，强调宗教和世俗的主张。此外，对平民的残酷对待削弱了他们战略沟通的影响力。本期的第二个主题侧重于加剧不对称冲突的因素。更具体地说，在第三篇文章中，Michael Burch和Leslie Ochreiter研究了叛乱组织在国内冲突中分裂的原因。换句话说，他们的研究重点是为什么反叛组织分裂并参与自己的暴力活动，而不是继续在一个更大的组织内分享资源。作者发现，与动员、中央指挥和领土控制相关的组织特征驱动了反叛组织之间分化的决定。Kyle T. Kattelman的第四篇文章也强调了这个问题背后的第二个研究主题。本研究使用来自53个国家的恐怖袭击数据来研究全球反恐战争如何影响基地组织及其附属组织对联盟国家公民实施的恐怖袭击。他的研究结果表明，军事力量对全球反恐战争的贡献增加了基地组织及其附属组织发动恐怖袭击的频率，这表明了一种反作用。本期的最后一个主题是定义什么是(不是)不对称冲突。特别是，克里斯托弗·伯格伦德和埃米尔·阿斯兰·苏莱马诺夫的研究追踪了不对称冲突概念的含义及其在学术界和《不对称冲突动力学》2020年第13卷第1期的使用。1,1 - 2 https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2020.1726044
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