Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2023.2187072
S. Moskalenko, Joshua D. Freilich, S. Chermak, Jeff Gruenewald, C. McCauley
ABSTRACT This paper identifies what we see as opportunities to improve data collection, analysis, and interpretation of findings in American and British terrorism research. We suggest seven directions that we see as promising. These include: 1) interview methods and reporting, 2) source reporting in database studies, prioritizing available court records, 3) more comparison groups, including non-offender activists for the same cause and non-political offenders, 4) comparison of cases with and without confidential informants, 5) extremist ideas and extremist violence studied as separate problems, 6) more attention to grievances, avoiding controversies over defining ideology and narrative, and 7) more attention to emotions of terrorists, their supporters, and their victims.
{"title":"Growth opportunities in American and British terrorism research","authors":"S. Moskalenko, Joshua D. Freilich, S. Chermak, Jeff Gruenewald, C. McCauley","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2023.2187072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2023.2187072","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper identifies what we see as opportunities to improve data collection, analysis, and interpretation of findings in American and British terrorism research. We suggest seven directions that we see as promising. These include: 1) interview methods and reporting, 2) source reporting in database studies, prioritizing available court records, 3) more comparison groups, including non-offender activists for the same cause and non-political offenders, 4) comparison of cases with and without confidential informants, 5) extremist ideas and extremist violence studied as separate problems, 6) more attention to grievances, avoiding controversies over defining ideology and narrative, and 7) more attention to emotions of terrorists, their supporters, and their victims.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"16 1","pages":"44 - 69"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42674902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2022.2150782
Wesley S. McCann
ABSTRACT This study uses a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to examine the radicalization pathways of Islamic extremists in the United States from 1980 to 2018. This study draws on the Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS) database to examine the role of individual-, experiential-, contextual-, and familial-level conditions – or push and pull factors- on the radicalization process. More specifically, this study looks at radicalization to violent behaviour. Using fsQCA, this study found that the radicalization pathway for Islamic extremists is extremely difficult to reduce to a simple conditional pattern, and that the combination of conditions for the presence of radical violent behaviour is very similar for the absence of radical violent behaviour. More specifically, being married and holding a deep commitment to radical beliefs were individually and collectively sufficient conditions for explaining the presence and absence of radical violence, as was group membership. Having radical friends, being unemployed, and having a college degree each has less consistency, but predictable relationships with these outcomes, based on their conjoinment with other conditions. Implications and areas for future inquiry are discussed within.
{"title":"Assessing equifinality in Islamic extremist pathways using fsQCA","authors":"Wesley S. McCann","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2022.2150782","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2022.2150782","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study uses a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to examine the radicalization pathways of Islamic extremists in the United States from 1980 to 2018. This study draws on the Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS) database to examine the role of individual-, experiential-, contextual-, and familial-level conditions – or push and pull factors- on the radicalization process. More specifically, this study looks at radicalization to violent behaviour. Using fsQCA, this study found that the radicalization pathway for Islamic extremists is extremely difficult to reduce to a simple conditional pattern, and that the combination of conditions for the presence of radical violent behaviour is very similar for the absence of radical violent behaviour. More specifically, being married and holding a deep commitment to radical beliefs were individually and collectively sufficient conditions for explaining the presence and absence of radical violence, as was group membership. Having radical friends, being unemployed, and having a college degree each has less consistency, but predictable relationships with these outcomes, based on their conjoinment with other conditions. Implications and areas for future inquiry are discussed within.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"15 1","pages":"224 - 254"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46684590","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2022.2160690
A. Lemieux
Dear Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Readers: Welcome to the fifteenth volume, third issue of Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide. This issue features three articles that cover topics of great interest to our readership. Chen et al. present an interesting and novel approach to integrating machine learning and content analysis related to the spread of misand disinformation in the wake of terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia. Fink et al. examine drivers of violent collective action, anger and humiliation in the Palestinian Territories. Finally, McCann’s application of fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis to radicalization pathways to violent behavior. Taken together, this collection of articles represents how our field moves forward: Through the design, implementation, evaluation, and dissemination of compelling research. As I often like to point out, it is this work – the hard work – of research and writing that brings us all new perspective and insight. Our multi and interdisciplinary field is deeply enriched through this research, and the process of peer review that improves the quality and impact of papers that we are able to publish at DAC. My sincere gratitude to all who are part of this shared endeavor authors, reviewers, and readers alike. As always, thank you!
{"title":"Letter from the Editor","authors":"A. Lemieux","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2022.2160690","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2022.2160690","url":null,"abstract":"Dear Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Readers: Welcome to the fifteenth volume, third issue of Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide. This issue features three articles that cover topics of great interest to our readership. Chen et al. present an interesting and novel approach to integrating machine learning and content analysis related to the spread of misand disinformation in the wake of terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia. Fink et al. examine drivers of violent collective action, anger and humiliation in the Palestinian Territories. Finally, McCann’s application of fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis to radicalization pathways to violent behavior. Taken together, this collection of articles represents how our field moves forward: Through the design, implementation, evaluation, and dissemination of compelling research. As I often like to point out, it is this work – the hard work – of research and writing that brings us all new perspective and insight. Our multi and interdisciplinary field is deeply enriched through this research, and the process of peer review that improves the quality and impact of papers that we are able to publish at DAC. My sincere gratitude to all who are part of this shared endeavor authors, reviewers, and readers alike. As always, thank you!","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"15 1","pages":"189 - 189"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42334800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-24DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2022.2112408
Oliver Fink, O. A. Leshem, E. Halperin
ABSTRACT What are the emotional antecedences of support for violent resistance among low-power groups living in conditions of hardship and oppression? Previous studies suggest that emotions such as anger and humiliation can elicit support for violent actions against the oppressor. However, the exact circumstances that make these emotions trigger support for violence within asymmetric conflict remain unclear. To better understand when anger and humiliation experienced by oppressed groups evoke violent political resistance, we conducted a two-wave survey in the Palestinian Territories during relative calm and immediately after a public provocative move made by Israel. Results revealed that for citizens living under oppression, intergroup anger and humiliation are present at relatively high levels even during relative calm. In these day-to-day conditions of oppression, anger, but not humiliation was associated with citizens’ support for violent means of resistance. As anticipated, levels of anger and humiliation surged after Israel’s public conflict aggravation, but the context moderated their effect on support for violence. After the provocation, humiliation elicited support for violence while anger was not associated with such support. Theoretical and applied implications of the detrimental consequences of humiliation are discussed.
{"title":"Oppression and resistance – uncovering the relations between anger, humiliation and violent collective action in asymmetric intergroup conflict","authors":"Oliver Fink, O. A. Leshem, E. Halperin","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2022.2112408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2022.2112408","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT What are the emotional antecedences of support for violent resistance among low-power groups living in conditions of hardship and oppression? Previous studies suggest that emotions such as anger and humiliation can elicit support for violent actions against the oppressor. However, the exact circumstances that make these emotions trigger support for violence within asymmetric conflict remain unclear. To better understand when anger and humiliation experienced by oppressed groups evoke violent political resistance, we conducted a two-wave survey in the Palestinian Territories during relative calm and immediately after a public provocative move made by Israel. Results revealed that for citizens living under oppression, intergroup anger and humiliation are present at relatively high levels even during relative calm. In these day-to-day conditions of oppression, anger, but not humiliation was associated with citizens’ support for violent means of resistance. As anticipated, levels of anger and humiliation surged after Israel’s public conflict aggravation, but the context moderated their effect on support for violence. After the provocation, humiliation elicited support for violence while anger was not associated with such support. Theoretical and applied implications of the detrimental consequences of humiliation are discussed.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"15 1","pages":"210 - 223"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48624707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-04DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2022.2101208
A. Lemieux
Dear Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Readers: Welcome to the fifteenth volume, second issue of Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide. This issue features several articles that provide innovative methodological and analytic perspectives from a range of disciplines: Mathematical approaches and statistical analyses that speak to measures of activism and radicalism, along with global and regional statistical models of the drivers of terrorism. Additionally, we have a paper that focuses on empirical analyses of the impacts of unmanned aerial vehicle based attacks, and another that dives deep into the relationship between mental health, psychological resilience, and involvement in terrorism. Taken together, these five papers provide a breadth and depth that our readers and authors expect and appreciate. The work that goes into the research and writing process, along with the rigor and quality of the peer review process, makes this all possible. Special thanks to those authors who choose to publish with DAC, and to the reviewers and valued members of the editorial board whose support are critical to the continued success of the journal. As always to you, the reader, thank you! – Anthony F. Lemieux, Editor, Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Journal
{"title":"Letter from the Editor","authors":"A. Lemieux","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2022.2101208","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2022.2101208","url":null,"abstract":"Dear Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Readers: Welcome to the fifteenth volume, second issue of Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide. This issue features several articles that provide innovative methodological and analytic perspectives from a range of disciplines: Mathematical approaches and statistical analyses that speak to measures of activism and radicalism, along with global and regional statistical models of the drivers of terrorism. Additionally, we have a paper that focuses on empirical analyses of the impacts of unmanned aerial vehicle based attacks, and another that dives deep into the relationship between mental health, psychological resilience, and involvement in terrorism. Taken together, these five papers provide a breadth and depth that our readers and authors expect and appreciate. The work that goes into the research and writing process, along with the rigor and quality of the peer review process, makes this all possible. Special thanks to those authors who choose to publish with DAC, and to the reviewers and valued members of the editorial board whose support are critical to the continued success of the journal. As always to you, the reader, thank you! – Anthony F. Lemieux, Editor, Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Journal","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"15 1","pages":"95 - 95"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44652470","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-30DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2022.2055097
X. Chen, Loo Seng Neo, A. Ang, Jing Yi Lee, Gabriel Ong, Majeed Khader
ABSTRACT A surge in the spread of fake news after a terror attack such as the 2018 Surabaya bombings has been observed in recent times. It was clear that the spread of fake news (i.e., information disorder [ID]) can amplify the social impact and consequences of a terror attack on the local community. However, research on the prevalence of ID in connection to a terror incident is not well-studied in Southeast Asia (SEA). To address this gap systematically, this study describes an approach taken to study this nexus between the spread of ID in connection to a terror attack. By drawing on the Global Terrorism Database and manual searches, a case study bank of 39 terror incidents with instances of ID in SEA from 2015 to 2019 was created through the use of a mix of automated and human workflows. This exploratory study sought to document the kinds of ID that emerged in English language media after a terror incident in SEA and to identify implications for the field of ID as well as terrorism
{"title":"The nexus between information disorder and terrorism: a mix of machine learning approach and content analysis on 39 terror attacks","authors":"X. Chen, Loo Seng Neo, A. Ang, Jing Yi Lee, Gabriel Ong, Majeed Khader","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2022.2055097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2022.2055097","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT A surge in the spread of fake news after a terror attack such as the 2018 Surabaya bombings has been observed in recent times. It was clear that the spread of fake news (i.e., information disorder [ID]) can amplify the social impact and consequences of a terror attack on the local community. However, research on the prevalence of ID in connection to a terror incident is not well-studied in Southeast Asia (SEA). To address this gap systematically, this study describes an approach taken to study this nexus between the spread of ID in connection to a terror attack. By drawing on the Global Terrorism Database and manual searches, a case study bank of 39 terror incidents with instances of ID in SEA from 2015 to 2019 was created through the use of a mix of automated and human workflows. This exploratory study sought to document the kinds of ID that emerged in English language media after a terror incident in SEA and to identify implications for the field of ID as well as terrorism","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"77 1","pages":"190 - 209"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60002471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2022.2046245
A. Lemieux
Dear Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Readers: Welcome to the fifteenth volume, first issue of Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways towards Terrorism and Genocide. As we start the fifteenth volume, I’d like to reflect briefly on the past year of the journal and on things to come. In 2021, DAC continued on its trajectory of increased reader engagement, and the number of downloads and citations was a key reflection of the quality and impact of the research we’ve published. Our special issue focused on research on and related to the January 6 attacks on the U.S. Capitol were particularly well received. In 2022, I will be looking towards the development of additional special and focused issues to bring together research on pressing topics.
{"title":"Letter from the editor","authors":"A. Lemieux","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2022.2046245","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2022.2046245","url":null,"abstract":"Dear Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Readers: Welcome to the fifteenth volume, first issue of Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways towards Terrorism and Genocide. As we start the fifteenth volume, I’d like to reflect briefly on the past year of the journal and on things to come. In 2021, DAC continued on its trajectory of increased reader engagement, and the number of downloads and citations was a key reflection of the quality and impact of the research we’ve published. Our special issue focused on research on and related to the January 6 attacks on the U.S. Capitol were particularly well received. In 2022, I will be looking towards the development of additional special and focused issues to bring together research on pressing topics.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"15 1","pages":"1 - 1"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41510205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-22DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2021.2008462
Kyle M. Schwing, Jason A. Spitaletta, Jonathan Pitt
ABSTRACT We propose a probabilistic control-system model to measure gradations of organizational coherence. Our model expresses the four flows of the Communicative Constitution of Organizations, and moves beyond common network-based analyses to quantify the emergence of organization through communication. In the model, an organization’s leadership selects from a set of discrete strategies, the number and complexity of which are regulated by membership negotiation and self-structuring. Activity coordination constrains the internal response of the organization to the selected strategy, and institutional positioning shapes its ultimate outcome in the environment. Our model introduces a new partition of the four flows between those that affect the set of available strategies versus the precision of organizational control. The model informs proxy measurements of the maturation of a partial organization, such as an insurgency. Its quantified approach enables testing of the interrelationships and tradeoffs among flows in an agent-based simulation of varying levels of partial organizations competing and cooperatively exploring for resources. The most consequential flow in our scenario, measured in comparison to baseline data, is membership negotiation. Complex behaviours emerge in simulation results, such as information asymmetries, tradeoffs between power and efficiency, the contrast between short- and long-term gains, and individual versus group utility.
{"title":"A mathematical interpretation of the communicative constitution of organizations","authors":"Kyle M. Schwing, Jason A. Spitaletta, Jonathan Pitt","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2021.2008462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2021.2008462","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We propose a probabilistic control-system model to measure gradations of organizational coherence. Our model expresses the four flows of the Communicative Constitution of Organizations, and moves beyond common network-based analyses to quantify the emergence of organization through communication. In the model, an organization’s leadership selects from a set of discrete strategies, the number and complexity of which are regulated by membership negotiation and self-structuring. Activity coordination constrains the internal response of the organization to the selected strategy, and institutional positioning shapes its ultimate outcome in the environment. Our model introduces a new partition of the four flows between those that affect the set of available strategies versus the precision of organizational control. The model informs proxy measurements of the maturation of a partial organization, such as an insurgency. Its quantified approach enables testing of the interrelationships and tradeoffs among flows in an agent-based simulation of varying levels of partial organizations competing and cooperatively exploring for resources. The most consequential flow in our scenario, measured in comparison to baseline data, is membership negotiation. Complex behaviours emerge in simulation results, such as information asymmetries, tradeoffs between power and efficiency, the contrast between short- and long-term gains, and individual versus group utility.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"15 1","pages":"165 - 188"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49116552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-04DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2021.1983853
Håvard Haugstvedt
ABSTRACT In the “global war on terror,” civilians have been harmed by US and other governments’ airstrikes, such as unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks. This has led to public demand for more transparency into the harm inflicted upon civilian populations. Non-state actors have utilized UAVs for over a decade, and some have armed their UAVs, into kamikaze-style UAVs, or with grenade-dropping capability. This paper compares how UAV attacks by the United States and non-state actors harm civilian populations and how this might influence local or regional support for non-state actors. This study utilized data from 258 UAV attacks by non-state actors. Data on US UAV attacks were obtained from the Bureau of Investigative Journalism. The mean number of casualties and injuries from non-state actors’ UAV attacks were 0.17 and 0.43 per attack, respectively, as opposed to 0.42 and 0.14 from US UAV attacks. If non-state actors aim to gain support from local populations, taking their fight to the skies might not be the best strategy. Contrary, civilian harm from non-state actors’ attacks might strengthen security forces and create a stronger population-supported counterterrorism effort.
{"title":"Wounding local hearts? Evidence from an empirical study of UAV attacks by state and non-state actors harming civilian populations","authors":"Håvard Haugstvedt","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2021.1983853","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2021.1983853","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In the “global war on terror,” civilians have been harmed by US and other governments’ airstrikes, such as unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks. This has led to public demand for more transparency into the harm inflicted upon civilian populations. Non-state actors have utilized UAVs for over a decade, and some have armed their UAVs, into kamikaze-style UAVs, or with grenade-dropping capability. This paper compares how UAV attacks by the United States and non-state actors harm civilian populations and how this might influence local or regional support for non-state actors. This study utilized data from 258 UAV attacks by non-state actors. Data on US UAV attacks were obtained from the Bureau of Investigative Journalism. The mean number of casualties and injuries from non-state actors’ UAV attacks were 0.17 and 0.43 per attack, respectively, as opposed to 0.42 and 0.14 from US UAV attacks. If non-state actors aim to gain support from local populations, taking their fight to the skies might not be the best strategy. Contrary, civilian harm from non-state actors’ attacks might strengthen security forces and create a stronger population-supported counterterrorism effort.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"15 1","pages":"153 - 164"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46808811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-28DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2021.1983189
L. Kuznar, Jeffrey Day
ABSTRACT Statistical modelling of terrorism has advanced the understanding of its underlying drivers. However, numerous questions remain, some have not been empirically tested, and regional dynamics differ. In recent decades, the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) and Central Asia have been focal points of terrorism. An extensive review of global and regional statistical models of terrorism at the country-year level was conducted and hypotheses re-tested on a database for MENA and Central Asia for years 1998–2017. The analysis indicates that the primary drivers of terrorism in this region are corruption, war, state terror, weak democracy, and unemployment. Fuel exports, ethnic and religious fractionalization, youth bulges, and internally displaced persons (IDPs) have little or no statistically significant relationship to terrorism in the region. Collectively, these results indicate that certain factors can anticipate terrorism in the region. Further analysis indicates that some factors have the potential to erupt suddenly and therefore require constant monitoring and sound contingency planning.
{"title":"Hunting for Gray Rhinos and terrorism in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia","authors":"L. Kuznar, Jeffrey Day","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2021.1983189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2021.1983189","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Statistical modelling of terrorism has advanced the understanding of its underlying drivers. However, numerous questions remain, some have not been empirically tested, and regional dynamics differ. In recent decades, the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) and Central Asia have been focal points of terrorism. An extensive review of global and regional statistical models of terrorism at the country-year level was conducted and hypotheses re-tested on a database for MENA and Central Asia for years 1998–2017. The analysis indicates that the primary drivers of terrorism in this region are corruption, war, state terror, weak democracy, and unemployment. Fuel exports, ethnic and religious fractionalization, youth bulges, and internally displaced persons (IDPs) have little or no statistically significant relationship to terrorism in the region. Collectively, these results indicate that certain factors can anticipate terrorism in the region. Further analysis indicates that some factors have the potential to erupt suddenly and therefore require constant monitoring and sound contingency planning.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"15 1","pages":"141 - 152"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42665743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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