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Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide最新文献

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‘Does peacekeeping deter terrorism?’ “维和行动能阻止恐怖主义吗?”
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-10-12 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2020.1821070
A. Kruglova
ABSTRACT This article examines the effect of the presence of UN peacekeeping forces on the scale of domestic terrorist violence in civil war-torn countries. By employing matching and regression analysis, I explore two samples: one contains information about countries during the active phase of fighting (in-war); and the other relates to after the fighting has finished. I find that the presence of UN peacekeepers during the active phase of fighting has no significant effect on the number of terrorist attacks, but it decreases the number of terrorist attacks after the war is over.
本文考察了联合国维和部队的存在对内战国家国内恐怖主义暴力规模的影响。通过采用匹配和回归分析,我探索了两个样本:一个包含有关国家在战斗活跃阶段(战争)的信息;另一个与战争结束后有关。我发现,在战斗活跃阶段,联合国维和人员的存在对恐怖袭击的数量没有显著影响,但在战争结束后,它减少了恐怖袭击的数量。
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引用次数: 0
Delegating repression?: Pro-government militias and domestic terrorism 委托镇压?:亲政府民兵和国内恐怖主义
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-10-12 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2020.1821071
H. Akins
ABSTRACT Scholars have increasingly disaggregated domestic terrorism from transnational terrorism and sought to understand the causal factors of the former by focusing on endogenous features of the state and the actions of the government that either provoke or create opportunities for the occurrence of domestic terrorist attacks, especially repressive actions of the government. These arguments are implicitly framed by a unitary view of the state within intra-state conflict. The conflict literature, however, has increasingly looked beyond this unitary view and examined the role and impact of pro-government militias (PGMs) as a tactical means of increasing the state’s ability to wage violence. Using negative binomial analysis of data on domestic terrorism and PGMs, this article demonstrates that PGM activity that serves as a force multiplier for official security forces increases the likelihood of an increase in domestic terrorism, an argument that is robust to various model specifications.
学者们越来越多地将国内恐怖主义与跨国恐怖主义分开,并通过关注国家的内生特征和政府的行为,特别是政府的镇压行为,为国内恐怖袭击的发生挑起或创造机会,试图了解前者的因果因素。这些论点隐含着对国家内部冲突的统一看法。然而,冲突文献越来越多地超越了这种单一的观点,并研究了亲政府民兵(PGMs)作为增加国家发动暴力能力的战术手段的作用和影响。通过对国内恐怖主义和PGM数据的负二项分析,本文表明,作为官方安全部队力量倍增器的PGM活动增加了国内恐怖主义增加的可能性,这一论点对各种模型规格都是稳健的。
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引用次数: 2
Preventive medicine: domestic repression and foreign revolutionary states 预防医学:国内镇压与外国革命国家
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-22 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2020.1821067
C. Linebarger
ABSTRACT Do governments repress in order to defend themselves against the threat posed by the geographic proximity of victorious rebel forces? I theorize that the victory of rebel forces in armed conflict, and the subsequent creation of a revolutionary regime, provides a model for mobilization to would-be rebels and that this, in turn, leads government authorities to deploy domestic repression in order to defend themselves. This relationship is conditional upon the international assertiveness of revolutionary regimes, as well as their geographic proximity to the threatened state. Revolutionary regimes that provide assistance to foreign rebels are regarded as more threatening by status-quo states, as are those that are geographically proximate. I undertake a data analysis of state-year patterns of repression and find significant support for my theoretical expectations. My findings have implications for the study of counter-revolution, supporting the notion that state repression is, in part, a function of international threat.
摘要:政府是否通过镇压来抵御胜利的反叛力量在地理上的接近所带来的威胁?我的理论是,反叛力量在武装冲突中的胜利,以及随后革命政权的建立,为动员潜在的反叛分子提供了一个模式,而这反过来又导致政府当局部署国内镇压以自卫。这种关系取决于革命政权的国际自信,以及它们与受威胁国家的地理位置接近程度。向外国叛军提供援助的革命政权被现状国家视为更具威胁性,地理位置接近的国家也是如此。我对州一年的镇压模式进行了数据分析,并为我的理论预期找到了重要的支持。我的发现对反革命的研究有启示,支持国家镇压在一定程度上是国际威胁的一种功能的观点。
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引用次数: 0
How pro-government militia ethnic relationships influence violence against civilians 亲政府民兵的种族关系如何影响针对平民的暴力
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-16 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2020.1821069
J. Schon, Y. Magid
ABSTRACT How do ethnic links between governments and pro-government militias (PGMs) affect the abusive behaviour of PGMs? PGMs may recruit irrespective of ethnic group (Non-Ethnic PGMs), from the ethnic group that controls the government (Dominant PGMs), from quiescent groups not in control of the government (Peripheral PGMs), and from ethnic groups actively rebelling against the government (Defector PGMs). PGMs recruited on ethnic lines tend to have informal relationships with the government, so they often help the government avoid accountability for civilian targeting. Examining ethnic relationships rather than whether the relationship is informal or semi-official, however, reveals important nuances. Defector PGMs are both able to target selectively and are deterred from being too abusive. Peripheral PGMs can target civilians more frequently, but they tend to lack the capacity to carry out large-scale massacres. Dominant PGMs can and do carry out large-scale massacres, but they target civilians less frequently because they only act when government accountability is not a concern. Regression analysis of a global group-year dataset of PGM abuses (1989–2007) supports these expectations. Our analysis demonstrates the value of considering PGM ethnic relationships with the government.
政府和亲政府民兵(PGMs)之间的民族联系如何影响PGMs的虐待行为?PGMs可能不考虑种族(非种族PGMs),从控制政府的种族(主导PGMs),从不受政府控制的沉默群体(边缘PGMs)和积极反抗政府的种族群体(叛逃者PGMs)中招募。在种族界线上被招募的民兵往往与政府有非正式的关系,因此他们经常帮助政府逃避针对平民的责任。然而,研究种族关系而不是这种关系是非正式的还是半官方的,会揭示出重要的细微差别。叛逃者PGMs既可以有选择地瞄准目标,也可以避免过度滥用。外围制导导弹可以更频繁地以平民为目标,但它们往往缺乏进行大规模屠杀的能力。占主导地位的民兵组织能够而且确实进行了大规模屠杀,但他们针对平民的频率较低,因为他们只在不关心政府问责的情况下采取行动。对1989-2007年全球PGM滥用组年数据集的回归分析支持了这些预期。我们的分析证明了考虑PGM与政府的民族关系的价值。
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引用次数: 0
Does repression work?: Measuring repression’s effect on protest using an instrumental variable model 压制有效吗?:使用工具变量模型测量镇压对抗议的影响
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-16 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2020.1821073
Victor Asal, Joseph M. Brown
ABSTRACT Protest and repression are reciprocally related. Governments respond with repression when faced with challenges to their rule. Dissidents choose their strategies, turning out to protest or staying home, based on the state’s behaviour. But what effect does repression have on protestors’ decisions? The existing literature is of two minds on this issue. One school of thought argues that repression suppresses protest. A second school of thought argues that repression increases protest by inducing public backlash against the regime. Efforts to adjudicate these claims are complicated by the endogeneity between protest and repression. We use US economic development assistance as an instrument for government repression. Governments seeking US development assistance eschew the repression of protestors. An instrumental variable analysis of the MAROB Middle East dataset shows that repression (instrumented on US development aid commitments) discourages protest by a dissident group. The likelihood of protest decreases by roughly 20% in a given year if the group is repressed. The need for an instrumental variable model is highlighted by the fact that uninstrumented regressions show the opposite effect, giving the spurious appearance of backlash. Unfortunately for protestors, the appearance is deceiving. Repression works.
抗议和镇压是相互关联的。政府在面临统治挑战时会采取镇压措施。持不同政见者根据国家的行为选择他们的策略,参加抗议或呆在家里。但是镇压对抗议者的决定有什么影响?现有的文献在这个问题上意见不一。一个学派认为镇压压制了抗议。第二种观点认为,镇压通过引发公众对政权的强烈反对来增加抗议。抗议和镇压之间的内生性使裁定这些主张的努力变得复杂。我们利用美国的经济发展援助作为镇压政府的工具。寻求美国发展援助的政府避免镇压抗议者。对MAROB中东数据集的工具变量分析显示,镇压(以美国发展援助承诺为工具)阻碍了持不同政见团体的抗议。如果该群体受到镇压,抗议的可能性在特定年份会降低约20%。无工具回归显示出相反的效果,从而产生虚假的反弹,这一事实突显了对工具变量模型的需求。不幸的是,对于抗议者来说,这种外表是骗人的。镇压奏效了。
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引用次数: 1
FinTech, terrorism-related fund transfers and behavioural finance 金融科技、恐怖主义相关资金转移和行为金融
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-14 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2020.1821074
P. J. Phillips, Benjamin McDermid
ABSTRACT The arrival of “FinTech” – non-bank companies offering financial services through new technology – has changed the regulatory landscape of the financial markets. This is especially the case in the funds transfer market. While terrorist finance might have once been more at risk of detection in some jurisdictions than others, FinTech threatens to bring about a levelling of risk across jurisdictions. To what extent, though, do we expect decision-makers engaged in transferring funds for terrorism to switch seamlessly in response to changes in risk? Because terrorist finance requires choice under risk and uncertainty, it may be characterized by systematic patterns of error deriving from human decision-making processes. These errors cause delays, or “stickiness” in adaptation to new conditions and may provide openings for counter-terrorist finance (CTF).
摘要“金融科技”——通过新技术提供金融服务的非银行公司——的到来改变了金融市场的监管格局。在资金转移市场上尤其如此。虽然在一些司法管辖区,恐怖融资可能一度比其他司法管辖区更容易被发现,但金融科技公司有可能导致各司法管辖区的风险持平。然而,我们是否期望参与为恐怖主义转移资金的决策者在多大程度上无缝切换,以应对风险的变化?由于恐怖主义融资需要在风险和不确定性下进行选择,其特点可能是人类决策过程中产生的系统性错误模式。这些错误会导致适应新条件的延迟或“粘性”,并可能为反恐融资提供机会。
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引用次数: 3
Letter from the editor 编辑来信
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2020.1861809
G. Ligon, Lauren M. Zimmerman
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引用次数: 0
Drivers of violent extremism in higher education institutions of Pakistan 巴基斯坦高等教育机构暴力极端主义的驱动因素
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2020.1821068
Z. Ahmed, Qamar Abbas Jafri
ABSTRACT Since 2004, madrassas (Islamic seminaries) of Pakistan have been the primary focus of peace education interventions in Pakistan. The incidents of violence involving university students are a historic phenomenon in Pakistan, but the tendencies of violent clashes on university campuses and recruitment of university student in violent extremism are increasing. Despite an increasing number of violent clashes on university campuses and recruitment of university students by Islamists for jihad (holy war), there is negligible literature on university students’ radicalization in Pakistan. This study provides empirical data based on a comparative analysis of students’ perception from two public sector universities of Pakistan, namely the International Islamic University Islamabad (IIUI) and the Quaid-i-Azam University (QAU). The findings suggest different dynamics of hate speech, availability of extremist material and extremist recruitment between the two universities. While the QAU campus is dominated by politically motivated ethnic groups, the IIUI students are exposed to religiously motivated contents, violence, and recruitment. As it is reported in this study, the differences between the two universities are also because most of the IIUI students have religious inclinations because of their madrassa backgrounds and also because of the dominance of groups like the Islami Jamiat-e-Talaba Pakistan.
摘要自2004年以来,巴基斯坦的伊斯兰神学院一直是巴基斯坦和平教育干预的主要焦点。涉及大学生的暴力事件在巴基斯坦是一个历史现象,但大学校园暴力冲突和暴力极端主义招募大学生的趋势正在增加。尽管大学校园内的暴力冲突越来越多,伊斯兰主义者招募大学生参加圣战(圣战),但关于巴基斯坦大学生激进化的文献却很少。本研究提供了基于对巴基斯坦两所公立大学,即伊斯兰堡国际伊斯兰大学(IIUI)和Quaid-i-Azam大学(QAU)学生认知的比较分析的实证数据。研究结果表明,这两所大学在仇恨言论、极端主义材料的可用性和极端主义招募方面存在不同的动态。虽然QAU校园由出于政治动机的种族群体主导,但IIUI的学生却暴露在出于宗教动机的内容、暴力和招募中。正如本研究所报道的那样,这两所大学之间的差异也是因为大多数IIUI学生都有宗教倾向,因为他们的宗教学校背景,也因为巴基斯坦伊斯兰圣战组织等团体的主导地位。
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引用次数: 8
Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh: analysis of organizational design and activities 孟加拉国圣战者组织:组织设计和活动分析
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2020.1821072
Md. Nurul Momen
ABSTRACT Bangladesh has been identified as one of the rising Islamic militancy regions in the world due to the security challenges posed by the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). JMB aims to change the existing political system and finding ways for the establishment of an Islamic state through an armed struggle. However, the purpose of this qualitative study is to examine the organizational design and activities of JMB, and also illustrates different strategies and measures in place that have been adopted by the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) directed against the militant activities.
摘要由于孟加拉国圣战者组织(JMB)带来的安全挑战,孟加拉国已被确定为世界上伊斯兰好战势力不断上升的地区之一。JMB旨在改变现有的政治制度,并通过武装斗争找到建立伊斯兰国的方法。然而,这项定性研究的目的是审查联合军事委员会的组织设计和活动,并说明孟加拉国政府针对激进活动采取的不同战略和措施。
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引用次数: 4
Bureaucratic quality and the severity of genocide and politicide 官僚作风与种族灭绝和政治化的严重性
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2019.1650387
Gary Uzonyi
ABSTRACT First generation genocide scholars viewed bureaucratic quality as essential to government mass atrocity. However, second generation scholars view bureaucratic quality as an obstacle to government mass violence. I analyze the relationship between bureaucratic quality and killing severity econometrically to help resolve this debate. I find that stronger bureaucracies increase the severity of ongoing campaigns of genocide and politicide. These findings indicate that first generation scholars are correct in emphasizing the importance of bureaucratic quality in helping the government realize its genocide or politicide. The results also indicate that our understanding of the importance of bureaucratic quality is not driven by the German bureaucracy during the Holocaust. Instead, bureaucratic quality has a significant influence on the severity of genocide and politicide in many recent cases of government mass murder that have occurred in less developed states, as well.
第一代种族灭绝学者认为官僚素质是政府大规模暴行的关键。然而,第二代学者认为官僚主义素质是政府大规模暴力的障碍。我用计量经济学的方法分析了官僚作风质量和杀戮严重性之间的关系,以帮助解决这一争论。我发现,更强大的官僚机构加剧了正在进行的种族灭绝和政治灭绝运动的严重性。这些发现表明,第一代学者强调官僚素质在帮助政府实现种族灭绝或政治灭绝方面的重要性是正确的。研究结果还表明,我们对官僚机构质量重要性的理解并不是由大屠杀期间的德国官僚机构推动的。相反,在最近发生在欠发达国家的许多政府大规模谋杀案件中,官僚主义质量对种族灭绝和政治灭绝的严重程度也有重大影响。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide
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