Pub Date : 2018-02-08DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2018.1432869
Kareem El Damanhoury, Carol K. Winkler, W. Kaczkowski, Aaron Dicker
Abstract Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) views military action and media operations as two equally important, reinforcing components of its campaign. With provinces disseminating 95% of ISIS’s media output, provincial media play a central role in achieving appearance shifts in the contested balance of power. Yet, scholars have not fully examined the interactions between the media and military components of ISIS’s campaign at the provincial level. To understand how enhanced coalition military operations impact the quantity and content of provincial media output, this study examines all 1643 photographs that Ninawa province disseminated before and during intense battles in the east Mosul operation. Unlike the common views in earlier studies, our study reveals that Ninawa’s use of still imagery, in particular, tripled following the launch of the Mosul operation, and the depiction of the state-building campaign remained intact. ISIS also used about-to-die images as its image weaponry of choice during intensified military pressure. Here, we use the case of Ninawa province to explore how ISIS can create nuanced photographic campaigns to help offset losses on the contested media battlefield and facilitate future repackaging of content. Finally, we highlight the importance of operationalization for a better understanding of the military–media nexus in future studies.
{"title":"Examining the military–media nexus in ISIS’s provincial photography campaign","authors":"Kareem El Damanhoury, Carol K. Winkler, W. Kaczkowski, Aaron Dicker","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2018.1432869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2018.1432869","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) views military action and media operations as two equally important, reinforcing components of its campaign. With provinces disseminating 95% of ISIS’s media output, provincial media play a central role in achieving appearance shifts in the contested balance of power. Yet, scholars have not fully examined the interactions between the media and military components of ISIS’s campaign at the provincial level. To understand how enhanced coalition military operations impact the quantity and content of provincial media output, this study examines all 1643 photographs that Ninawa province disseminated before and during intense battles in the east Mosul operation. Unlike the common views in earlier studies, our study reveals that Ninawa’s use of still imagery, in particular, tripled following the launch of the Mosul operation, and the depiction of the state-building campaign remained intact. ISIS also used about-to-die images as its image weaponry of choice during intensified military pressure. Here, we use the case of Ninawa province to explore how ISIS can create nuanced photographic campaigns to help offset losses on the contested media battlefield and facilitate future repackaging of content. Finally, we highlight the importance of operationalization for a better understanding of the military–media nexus in future studies.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"11 1","pages":"108 - 89"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2018.1432869","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47220575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-02-07DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2018.1432868
Hayden J. Smith
Abstract There is significant debate over Iran’s nuclear program and their potential for weaponization. One camp of scholars and policy makers argue that a nuclear Iran would bring stability to the region while others argue that the regime will become a more aggressive threat. To better analyze the situation we must understand Iran’s intentions. To investigate Iran’s intentions I use a multimethod approach, employing operational code and image theory, to examine the worldview of Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, in regards to how he perceives the international system broadly, and the United States specifically. Understanding Khamenei’s perceptions and motivations provides a foundation on which to analyze the issue of a nuclear Iran. The results suggest that Khamenei is moderate and seeks to compromise and work with other actors, provided the other actors negotiate without making threats, consistent with prior research positing that nuclear weapons are sought to increase influence on the world stage.
{"title":"Threats won’t work","authors":"Hayden J. Smith","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2018.1432868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2018.1432868","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract There is significant debate over Iran’s nuclear program and their potential for weaponization. One camp of scholars and policy makers argue that a nuclear Iran would bring stability to the region while others argue that the regime will become a more aggressive threat. To better analyze the situation we must understand Iran’s intentions. To investigate Iran’s intentions I use a multimethod approach, employing operational code and image theory, to examine the worldview of Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, in regards to how he perceives the international system broadly, and the United States specifically. Understanding Khamenei’s perceptions and motivations provides a foundation on which to analyze the issue of a nuclear Iran. The results suggest that Khamenei is moderate and seeks to compromise and work with other actors, provided the other actors negotiate without making threats, consistent with prior research positing that nuclear weapons are sought to increase influence on the world stage.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"11 1","pages":"149 - 159"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2018.1432868","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47124042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-01-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2018.1435999
{"title":"Letter from the Editorial Team","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2018.1435999","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2018.1435999","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"11 1","pages":"2 - 2"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2018.1435999","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42864840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-01-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2018.1428762
E. Grace
Abstract Terrorist organizations’ use of psychology in analysing psychological issues in the everyday lives of their members and developing coping strategies has not been sufficiently investigated in the terrorism research. This qualitative study investigates Al Qaeda’s view of psychology, its analysis of psychological issues, and the utilization of coping strategies among terrorists. The study is based on 255 documents from the Bin Laden’s Bookshelf (Office of the Director of National Intelligence. [2015]. Bin Ladin’s Bookshelf. Retrieved from https://www.dni.gov/index.php/features/bin-laden-s-bookshelf) and Harmony database documents (The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point [CTC]. [2012]. Harmony program. Retrieved from https://ctc.usma.edu/programs-resources/harmony-program). The results indicate that Al Qaeda perceived psychology as a dangerous and important science. Psychological issues identified in this study include three types of suicide, depression, anxiety, security stress, diversity stress, and enforced idleness. Terrorists used both religious and secular coping strategies to overcome psychological issues. These findings can contribute to future research and counterterrorism efforts in understanding both the survivability and vulnerability of terrorists.
{"title":"A dangerous science: psychology in Al Qaeda’s words","authors":"E. Grace","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2018.1428762","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2018.1428762","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Terrorist organizations’ use of psychology in analysing psychological issues in the everyday lives of their members and developing coping strategies has not been sufficiently investigated in the terrorism research. This qualitative study investigates Al Qaeda’s view of psychology, its analysis of psychological issues, and the utilization of coping strategies among terrorists. The study is based on 255 documents from the Bin Laden’s Bookshelf (Office of the Director of National Intelligence. [2015]. Bin Ladin’s Bookshelf. Retrieved from https://www.dni.gov/index.php/features/bin-laden-s-bookshelf) and Harmony database documents (The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point [CTC]. [2012]. Harmony program. Retrieved from https://ctc.usma.edu/programs-resources/harmony-program). The results indicate that Al Qaeda perceived psychology as a dangerous and important science. Psychological issues identified in this study include three types of suicide, depression, anxiety, security stress, diversity stress, and enforced idleness. Terrorists used both religious and secular coping strategies to overcome psychological issues. These findings can contribute to future research and counterterrorism efforts in understanding both the survivability and vulnerability of terrorists.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"11 1","pages":"61 - 71"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2018.1428762","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49202541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-01-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2018.1428763
S. Ibrahimi
Abstract Following the end of the cold war, the international system transformed from a bipolar to a unipolar system. Unipolarity is not peaceful. It has contributed to the generation of conflict-producing mechanisms and nonstate actors that have driven sovereign states in lengthy asymmetric wars. Drawing on IR debates on the “peacefulness” of the unipolar system, this paper investigates how unipolarity and unipolar policies contributed to the transformation of “domestic jihad” into “global jihadism” and the emergence of Jihadi-Salafi Groups (JSGs). By focussing on the emergence of these actors within the unipolarity context, this paper adds asymmetric warfare in scholarly debate on the peacefulness of the unipolar system which is conventionally approached from the “interstate warfare” perspective. The purpose of this paper is developing a structural explanation of the emergence and expansion of JSGs and their impact on global peace.
{"title":"Unipolar politics and global peace: a structural explanation of the globalizing jihad","authors":"S. Ibrahimi","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2018.1428763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2018.1428763","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Following the end of the cold war, the international system transformed from a bipolar to a unipolar system. Unipolarity is not peaceful. It has contributed to the generation of conflict-producing mechanisms and nonstate actors that have driven sovereign states in lengthy asymmetric wars. Drawing on IR debates on the “peacefulness” of the unipolar system, this paper investigates how unipolarity and unipolar policies contributed to the transformation of “domestic jihad” into “global jihadism” and the emergence of Jihadi-Salafi Groups (JSGs). By focussing on the emergence of these actors within the unipolarity context, this paper adds asymmetric warfare in scholarly debate on the peacefulness of the unipolar system which is conventionally approached from the “interstate warfare” perspective. The purpose of this paper is developing a structural explanation of the emergence and expansion of JSGs and their impact on global peace.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"11 1","pages":"50 - 60"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2018.1428763","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46730203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-01-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2017.1414276
Nazli Avdan, Clayton Webb
Abstract Does coordination affect threat perceptions? The attacks in Paris and Brussels in 2015 and 2016 received a significant amount of attention in the media. The attacks were transnational, fatal, and perpetrated by the same group in western European countries. We argue that these are not the only features of the attacks that matter. The attacks involved coordination among teams of militants. This coordination signals sophistication. Sophistication amplifies threat perceptions independent of group reputation, fatality rate, or target location because sophistication suggests a greater capability to inflict harm. We provide experimental evidence of the relationship between coordination and threat perceptions. Our results contribute to a growing literature looking at the features of terrorist attacks and public perceptions of terrorism, and lay the groundwork for future research on the political and security consequences of coordinated terrorist attacks.
{"title":"The big, the bad, and the dangerous: public perceptions and terrorism","authors":"Nazli Avdan, Clayton Webb","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2017.1414276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2017.1414276","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Does coordination affect threat perceptions? The attacks in Paris and Brussels in 2015 and 2016 received a significant amount of attention in the media. The attacks were transnational, fatal, and perpetrated by the same group in western European countries. We argue that these are not the only features of the attacks that matter. The attacks involved coordination among teams of militants. This coordination signals sophistication. Sophistication amplifies threat perceptions independent of group reputation, fatality rate, or target location because sophistication suggests a greater capability to inflict harm. We provide experimental evidence of the relationship between coordination and threat perceptions. Our results contribute to a growing literature looking at the features of terrorist attacks and public perceptions of terrorism, and lay the groundwork for future research on the political and security consequences of coordinated terrorist attacks.","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"11 1","pages":"25 - 3"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2017.1414276","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42338488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-09-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2018.1519955
G. Ligon, Steven Windisch
Dear Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Readers: Welcome to Volume 11, Issue 3 of DAC! We have seven powerful articles to share with you in this Issue, ranging from Hayden Smith’s analysis of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to Sanjin Ulezic’s treatment of Northern Ireland conflict and hoax devices. While they are varied in style, from authors with distinct academic training, and cover a range of issues, the commonality across them is that they are all focused on the dynamics of asymmetric conflict. Moreover, in their own unique way, each addresses a specific tactic or strategy underlying conflict among actors with different levels of power. In a provocative article, Gary Uzonyi analyzes why States differ in their level of support for regimes committing genocide. Positing that third-parties are likely to support their allies – despite atrocities they commit – during times of civil war. Using a longitudinal dataset, he also found that these nation states were no less likely to support murderous regimes in the post-Cold War era. In addition to examining the asymmetry of power, this Issue addresses the dynamics or interplay that occur before, during, or after such conflict. For example, Michael Egnoto, Darrin Griffin, and Fei Qiao use intergroup threat theory to analyze social media and public messages directly following an active school shooter. Examining the intergroup dynamics and threat, the authors found that the seemingly more powerful mass media used less reassurance and information-seeking language than individuals on social media in the aftermath of such a threat. In addition to illustrating the scope of the Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Journal beautifully through a diverse array of conflicts and group dynamics, Volume 11 Issue three manuscripts use a host of analytic techniques and datasets to provide empirical support. This is particularly important as the study of terrorism as a field moves toward using data – both qualitative and quantitative – to address the critical issues of terrorism and genocide. For example, Tyler Welch uses a large corpus of English-based magazines from ISIS to analyze the shift in ISIS’s operational focus from establishing a physical caliphate to inspiring attacks both locally and abroad. Using four case studies derived from well-known databases of open-source perpetrators of terrorism, authors Thomas Holt, Joshua Freilich, Steven Chermak, and Gary LaFree examined two Far Right and two Salafist-Inspired perpetrators to examine two criminological theories. One of the benefits of this in-depth approach is that they were able to combine two related but distinct theoretical approaches (social control and social learning) to examine how their integration could contribute to explaining radicalization as a whole. Finally, given the applied focus of this journal, we include a practitioner-focused manuscript from Daniel Milton and Arie Perliger about how nations cooperate to execute Counter-Terrorism (CT) policies. The
{"title":"Letter from the Editorial Team","authors":"G. Ligon, Steven Windisch","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2018.1519955","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2018.1519955","url":null,"abstract":"Dear Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Readers: Welcome to Volume 11, Issue 3 of DAC! We have seven powerful articles to share with you in this Issue, ranging from Hayden Smith’s analysis of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to Sanjin Ulezic’s treatment of Northern Ireland conflict and hoax devices. While they are varied in style, from authors with distinct academic training, and cover a range of issues, the commonality across them is that they are all focused on the dynamics of asymmetric conflict. Moreover, in their own unique way, each addresses a specific tactic or strategy underlying conflict among actors with different levels of power. In a provocative article, Gary Uzonyi analyzes why States differ in their level of support for regimes committing genocide. Positing that third-parties are likely to support their allies – despite atrocities they commit – during times of civil war. Using a longitudinal dataset, he also found that these nation states were no less likely to support murderous regimes in the post-Cold War era. In addition to examining the asymmetry of power, this Issue addresses the dynamics or interplay that occur before, during, or after such conflict. For example, Michael Egnoto, Darrin Griffin, and Fei Qiao use intergroup threat theory to analyze social media and public messages directly following an active school shooter. Examining the intergroup dynamics and threat, the authors found that the seemingly more powerful mass media used less reassurance and information-seeking language than individuals on social media in the aftermath of such a threat. In addition to illustrating the scope of the Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict Journal beautifully through a diverse array of conflicts and group dynamics, Volume 11 Issue three manuscripts use a host of analytic techniques and datasets to provide empirical support. This is particularly important as the study of terrorism as a field moves toward using data – both qualitative and quantitative – to address the critical issues of terrorism and genocide. For example, Tyler Welch uses a large corpus of English-based magazines from ISIS to analyze the shift in ISIS’s operational focus from establishing a physical caliphate to inspiring attacks both locally and abroad. Using four case studies derived from well-known databases of open-source perpetrators of terrorism, authors Thomas Holt, Joshua Freilich, Steven Chermak, and Gary LaFree examined two Far Right and two Salafist-Inspired perpetrators to examine two criminological theories. One of the benefits of this in-depth approach is that they were able to combine two related but distinct theoretical approaches (social control and social learning) to examine how their integration could contribute to explaining radicalization as a whole. Finally, given the applied focus of this journal, we include a practitioner-focused manuscript from Daniel Milton and Arie Perliger about how nations cooperate to execute Counter-Terrorism (CT) policies. The","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"11 1","pages":"123 - 124"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2018.1519955","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47549565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-09-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2017.1414371
G. Ligon, Steven Windisch
{"title":"Letter from the Editorial Team","authors":"G. Ligon, Steven Windisch","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2017.1414371","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2017.1414371","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"10 1","pages":"80 - 80"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2017.1414371","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43595496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-09-02DOI: 10.1080/17467586.2017.1414918
{"title":"Call for papers","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/17467586.2017.1414918","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2017.1414918","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":38896,"journal":{"name":"Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict: Pathways toward Terrorism and Genocide","volume":"10 1","pages":"79 - 79"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17467586.2017.1414918","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41439209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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