Pub Date : 2022-08-09DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2150457
As a result of legislative elections held in November 2022, Israel is forming what will be its most right-wing government in history and former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will return to power for a third time. The government will include ministers deferential to the wishes of Israel’s growing Haredi (strict Jewish Orthodox) community, which will inflame domestic tensions about the group’s influence on public policy. The government’s decisions will have significant effects on Palestinian issues, Israel’s approach to Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear programme and its relationships with the United States and with other countries in the Middle East.
{"title":"Israel’s new government and the implications for Israeli foreign policy","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2150457","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2150457","url":null,"abstract":"As a result of legislative elections held in November 2022, Israel is forming what will be its most right-wing government in history and former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will return to power for a third time. The government will include ministers deferential to the wishes of Israel’s growing Haredi (strict Jewish Orthodox) community, which will inflame domestic tensions about the group’s influence on public policy. The government’s decisions will have significant effects on Palestinian issues, Israel’s approach to Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear programme and its relationships with the United States and with other countries in the Middle East.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"vi - vii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42369113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-09DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2148895
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party began on 16 October 2022. China’s leader, General Secretary Xi Jinping, appointed a leadership team for the next five years with limited input from other senior party members and with the primary requirement for membership being loyalty to him and a willingness to implement his policies with little resistance. As a result of the congress, Xi looks set to lead China for an unprecedented third term and possibly beyond.
{"title":"Xi’s domestic consolidation of power at the 20th Communist Party Congress","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2148895","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2148895","url":null,"abstract":"The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party began on 16 October 2022. China’s leader, General Secretary Xi Jinping, appointed a leadership team for the next five years with limited input from other senior party members and with the primary requirement for membership being loyalty to him and a willingness to implement his policies with little resistance. As a result of the congress, Xi looks set to lead China for an unprecedented third term and possibly beyond.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"iv - v"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49568936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-09DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2148502
On 29 August 2022, the influential Iraqi party-leader Moqtada al-Sadr announced his withdrawal from politics via Twitter. He has done so many times before, however, and remained a central figure in the country’s political system. Six weeks after Sadr’s most recent announcement, a new Iraqi president took office, leaving Sadr with little ability to influence the current government. It is uncertain whether he will be content in this position or whether he will resort to street or electoral politics to transform the political system once more.
{"title":"The ‘retirement’ of Moqtada al-Sadr and its effect on Iraqi politics","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2148502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2148502","url":null,"abstract":"On 29 August 2022, the influential Iraqi party-leader Moqtada al-Sadr announced his withdrawal from politics via Twitter. He has done so many times before, however, and remained a central figure in the country’s political system. Six weeks after Sadr’s most recent announcement, a new Iraqi president took office, leaving Sadr with little ability to influence the current government. It is uncertain whether he will be content in this position or whether he will resort to street or electoral politics to transform the political system once more.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"i - iii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48020098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-09DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2150458
From January to early November 2022, North Korea test-launched over 70 ballistic and cruise missiles, most of which were tests for operational rather than development purposes. This was far more launches than in any comparable period in the past, and some missiles were launched to overfly Japanese territory. These tests make clear that Pyongyang has matured as an operator of large-scale missile forces and is prepared to use these capabilities to pursue tactical and strategic aims. It is unknown whether the pace of missile activity in 2022 represents the new normal or whether it will prove to be an intense aberration as Pyongyang seeks to probe the approach of a new government in Seoul.
{"title":"North Korea’s missile activity in 2022","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2150458","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2150458","url":null,"abstract":"From January to early November 2022, North Korea test-launched over 70 ballistic and cruise missiles, most of which were tests for operational rather than development purposes. This was far more launches than in any comparable period in the past, and some missiles were launched to overfly Japanese territory. These tests make clear that Pyongyang has matured as an operator of large-scale missile forces and is prepared to use these capabilities to pursue tactical and strategic aims. It is unknown whether the pace of missile activity in 2022 represents the new normal or whether it will prove to be an intense aberration as Pyongyang seeks to probe the approach of a new government in Seoul.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"28 1","pages":"viii - ix"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43586528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2142363
The Indian Armed Forces are at the cusp of undergoing their most significant transformation since India gained independence. These changes, once fully implemented, will affect high-level defence management, the military-command structure and the defence industry. But the pace of change will depend in large part on the government’s willingness to push forward its reform agenda despite disagreements between civilian and uniformed defence officials about how to proceed.
{"title":"India’s defence transformation","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2142363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2142363","url":null,"abstract":"The Indian Armed Forces are at the cusp of undergoing their most significant transformation since India gained independence. These changes, once fully implemented, will affect high-level defence management, the military-command structure and the defence industry. But the pace of change will depend in large part on the government’s willingness to push forward its reform agenda despite disagreements between civilian and uniformed defence officials about how to proceed.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"28 1","pages":"iv - v"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47096954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2139497
France updated its Indo-Pacific strategy in February 2022, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The country’s president and top officials have insisted that the crisis in Europe will not distract the government from its ambitious goals in the Indo-Pacific, the most important of which is defending France’s sovereignty interests, which Paris feels have been challenged by China’s growing military power and international behaviour. To accomplish these goals, France will attempt to upgrade its military operational capability in the region and increase coordination with important international partners, including India and Japan.
{"title":"France’s approach to the Indo-Pacific region","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2139497","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2139497","url":null,"abstract":"France updated its Indo-Pacific strategy in February 2022, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The country’s president and top officials have insisted that the crisis in Europe will not distract the government from its ambitious goals in the Indo-Pacific, the most important of which is defending France’s sovereignty interests, which Paris feels have been challenged by China’s growing military power and international behaviour. To accomplish these goals, France will attempt to upgrade its military operational capability in the region and increase coordination with important international partners, including India and Japan.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"321 5","pages":"i - iii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41280913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2144012
Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium has grown significantly since the United States withdrew from the multilateral nuclear deal agreed in 2015. The time it would take for Iran to produce enough fissile material for one nuclear weapon is now less than seven days. But negotiations in Vienna over restoring the deal have reached a stalemate, and the US is no longer placing high priority on its restoration, focusing instead on supporting Iranian human-rights advocates and sanctioning Iranian oil sales.
{"title":"The dimming prospects of returning to a nuclear agreement with Iran","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2144012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2144012","url":null,"abstract":"Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium has grown significantly since the United States withdrew from the multilateral nuclear deal agreed in 2015. The time it would take for Iran to produce enough fissile material for one nuclear weapon is now less than seven days. But negotiations in Vienna over restoring the deal have reached a stalemate, and the US is no longer placing high priority on its restoration, focusing instead on supporting Iranian human-rights advocates and sanctioning Iranian oil sales.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"28 1","pages":"ix - xi"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41645688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2142378
In recent years, Rwanda has been punching above its weight as a security partner in Sub-Saharan Africa, supplying soldiers for multilateral peacekeeping operations and deploying its armed forces to participate in conflicts at the requests of the governments of Benin, the Central African Republic and Mozambique. These efforts are part of an attempt by long-time President Paul Kagame to overcome the country’s relative structural weaknesses in terms of its size and resources and to position himself as a capable leader.
{"title":"Rwanda’s ambitions as a security provider in Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2142378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2142378","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, Rwanda has been punching above its weight as a security partner in Sub-Saharan Africa, supplying soldiers for multilateral peacekeeping operations and deploying its armed forces to participate in conflicts at the requests of the governments of Benin, the Central African Republic and Mozambique. These efforts are part of an attempt by long-time President Paul Kagame to overcome the country’s relative structural weaknesses in terms of its size and resources and to position himself as a capable leader.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"28 1","pages":"vi - viii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48851008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-28DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2126170
Mexico and the United States are at an impasse over an attempt by Mexico’s president to re-nationalise some parts of the country’s energy sector. Mexico’s government has also taken more combative stances on foreign-policy issues in the last year, joining Latin America’s populist left. While these conflicts will probably not have a major effect on US-Mexico cooperation on critical issues such as bilateral goods trade and immigration, they suggest that a degree of mutual suspicion remains at the heart of the relationship despite the arrival of a new administration in Washington in 2021.
{"title":"Strains in the US–Mexico relationship","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2126170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2126170","url":null,"abstract":"Mexico and the United States are at an impasse over an attempt by Mexico’s president to re-nationalise some parts of the country’s energy sector. Mexico’s government has also taken more combative stances on foreign-policy issues in the last year, joining Latin America’s populist left. While these conflicts will probably not have a major effect on US-Mexico cooperation on critical issues such as bilateral goods trade and immigration, they suggest that a degree of mutual suspicion remains at the heart of the relationship despite the arrival of a new administration in Washington in 2021.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"vii - ix"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44393371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-28DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2124653
Five major non-oil Arab countries – Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia – are experiencing serious economic problems due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the disruption in global food and energy markets caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These events are causing existing macroeconomic imbalances to worsen alongside rising unemployment and inflation. Governments are attempting to raise revenue by increasing indirect taxes – which have a more significant effect on people who are poor or have moderate incomes – while cutting public services and employment levels. These factors, combined with relatively high levels of political repression in place since the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, pose a risk to political stability in the region.
{"title":"Economic trouble in five non-oil Arab countries","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2124653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2124653","url":null,"abstract":"Five major non-oil Arab countries – Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia – are experiencing serious economic problems due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the disruption in global food and energy markets caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These events are causing existing macroeconomic imbalances to worsen alongside rising unemployment and inflation. Governments are attempting to raise revenue by increasing indirect taxes – which have a more significant effect on people who are poor or have moderate incomes – while cutting public services and employment levels. These factors, combined with relatively high levels of political repression in place since the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, pose a risk to political stability in the region.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"28 1","pages":"iv - vi"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43881857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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