Pub Date : 2022-05-28DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2113676
The operation launched by the United States in July 2022 that resulted in the death of Ayman al-Zawahiri served as a reminder that jihadist groups remain active and are being pursued by Western security services. But in recent years, more global terrorist attacks have been politically rather than religiously motivated. Extremist groups focused broadly on far-right political issues have grown in size. Meanwhile, there has been an increasing number of state-sponsored assassinations, terrorist attacks, shadow operations and proxy wars, a trend that is likely to continue.
{"title":"Trends in global terrorism and the return of state sponsorship","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2113676","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2113676","url":null,"abstract":"The operation launched by the United States in July 2022 that resulted in the death of Ayman al-Zawahiri served as a reminder that jihadist groups remain active and are being pursued by Western security services. But in recent years, more global terrorist attacks have been politically rather than religiously motivated. Extremist groups focused broadly on far-right political issues have grown in size. Meanwhile, there has been an increasing number of state-sponsored assassinations, terrorist attacks, shadow operations and proxy wars, a trend that is likely to continue.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"i - iii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49335376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-28DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2135280
Multilateral relations over the Arctic, in which Russia has played a significant role given its large Arctic coast, have been largely frozen since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This includes cooperation over scientific issues, which will lead to a loss of Western access to data and knowledge about the region with damaging consequences for global climate research. The mutually beneficial legal agreements and instruments that have underwritten past Arctic cooperation are not at risk, however. Russia may take steps to further militarise some of its Arctic-adjacent regions in response to the poor performance of its conventional forces in Ukraine and the fact that Finland and Sweden are on track to join NATO.
{"title":"Arctic cooperation after Russia’s break with the West","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2135280","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2135280","url":null,"abstract":"Multilateral relations over the Arctic, in which Russia has played a significant role given its large Arctic coast, have been largely frozen since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This includes cooperation over scientific issues, which will lead to a loss of Western access to data and knowledge about the region with damaging consequences for global climate research. The mutually beneficial legal agreements and instruments that have underwritten past Arctic cooperation are not at risk, however. Russia may take steps to further militarise some of its Arctic-adjacent regions in response to the poor performance of its conventional forces in Ukraine and the fact that Finland and Sweden are on track to join NATO.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"28 1","pages":"x - xii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42072985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-21DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2096344
The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) in the United States has been written and shared with Congress in its classified form, but unusually, an unclassified version has not been made public. This is reportedly due to a dispute with some lawmakers over the pending cancellation of a programme to develop a nuclear-armed submarine-launched cruise missile – which the US Navy appears to support – and because the National Security Strategy written by officials in the administration of US President Joe Biden has not yet been finalised. The brief summary of the 2022 NPR that has been released suggests that it is largely a continuation of the nuclear policy adopted in 2010 by former president Barack Obama.
{"title":"The US Nuclear Posture Review in limbo","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2096344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2096344","url":null,"abstract":"The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) in the United States has been written and shared with Congress in its classified form, but unusually, an unclassified version has not been made public. This is reportedly due to a dispute with some lawmakers over the pending cancellation of a programme to develop a nuclear-armed submarine-launched cruise missile – which the US Navy appears to support – and because the National Security Strategy written by officials in the administration of US President Joe Biden has not yet been finalised. The brief summary of the 2022 NPR that has been released suggests that it is largely a continuation of the nuclear policy adopted in 2010 by former president Barack Obama.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"28 1","pages":"v - vi"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44038975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-21DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2096315
Turkey is suffering from a significant economic downturn that began in late 2021, when the Central Bank cut interest rates and inflation accelerated. There is not a clear path out of the crisis for the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is preparing to run for re-election in 2023 in the Republic of Turkey’s centenary year. Internationally, Erdoğan is making conciliatory moves towards several countries with which Turkey has had disputes in recent years while also pursuing a middle path with regard to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, meaning that Ankara has been able to preserve important trade and economic exchanges with Moscow while serving as a mediator between Kyiv and Moscow during the crisis.
{"title":"Turkey: economic problems and international ambitions","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2096315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2096315","url":null,"abstract":"Turkey is suffering from a significant economic downturn that began in late 2021, when the Central Bank cut interest rates and inflation accelerated. There is not a clear path out of the crisis for the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is preparing to run for re-election in 2023 in the Republic of Turkey’s centenary year. Internationally, Erdoğan is making conciliatory moves towards several countries with which Turkey has had disputes in recent years while also pursuing a middle path with regard to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, meaning that Ankara has been able to preserve important trade and economic exchanges with Moscow while serving as a mediator between Kyiv and Moscow during the crisis.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"28 1","pages":"i - iv"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47040292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-21DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2110743
Russia’s war in Ukraine has had a significant effect on political affairs in several Western Balkan countries. The fact that Brussels accepted applications for European Union membership from Moldova and Ukraine in February and March 2022 without attaching strict conditions undermined its credibility in the region. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia’s invasion emboldened Serb separatists, who then lowered their ambitions after Moscow’s withdrawal from the Kyiv region to eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić has continued his successful policy of balancing between the West and Russia.
{"title":"The effects of the war in Ukraine on the Western Balkans","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2110743","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2110743","url":null,"abstract":"Russia’s war in Ukraine has had a significant effect on political affairs in several Western Balkan countries. The fact that Brussels accepted applications for European Union membership from Moldova and Ukraine in February and March 2022 without attaching strict conditions undermined its credibility in the region. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia’s invasion emboldened Serb separatists, who then lowered their ambitions after Moscow’s withdrawal from the Kyiv region to eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić has continued his successful policy of balancing between the West and Russia.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"x - xii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45435307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-21DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2107283
Russia is coordinating with other countries that have been targeted by international sanctions – Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria and Venezuela – and emulating their techniques to avoid some of the restrictions on international shipping and banking that have been imposed on Moscow since its decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022.
{"title":"Russia and sanctions evasion","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2107283","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2107283","url":null,"abstract":"Russia is coordinating with other countries that have been targeted by international sanctions – Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria and Venezuela – and emulating their techniques to avoid some of the restrictions on international shipping and banking that have been imposed on Moscow since its decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"vii - ix"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46563959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-16DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2091878
Artificial intelligence (AI) technology has become vastly more powerful and sophisticated in recent years. It remains fundamentally brittle and opaque, however, and this will limit its use in high-risk applications. If a race emerges between countries to develop and deploy cutting-edge AI, that competition will occur over both technological capabilities and over the more practical matter of whether these capabilities can be made to be trustworthy
{"title":"International competition over artificial intelligence","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2091878","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2091878","url":null,"abstract":"Artificial intelligence (AI) technology has become vastly more powerful and sophisticated in recent years. It remains fundamentally brittle and opaque, however, and this will limit its use in high-risk applications. If a race emerges between countries to develop and deploy cutting-edge AI, that competition will occur over both technological capabilities and over the more practical matter of whether these capabilities can be made to be trustworthy","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"vii - ix"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49430299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-16DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2073123
French President Emmanuel Macron won a second term in a run-off election on 24 April, beating challenger Marine Le Pen by 17 percentage points. But Le Pen received the highest-ever number of votes for a far-right presidential candidate, illustrating how French politics is continuing to become polarised around the extremes. An emboldened Macron will seek to launch new domestic-policy initiatives and redouble his diplomatic efforts related to the war in Ukraine. He will also pursue an ambitious policy agenda in the European Union, focused on building a more robust indigenous economic base, reducing energy dependencies and improving European defence capabilities.
{"title":"France’s presidential election","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2073123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2073123","url":null,"abstract":"French President Emmanuel Macron won a second term in a run-off election on 24 April, beating challenger Marine Le Pen by 17 percentage points. But Le Pen received the highest-ever number of votes for a far-right presidential candidate, illustrating how French politics is continuing to become polarised around the extremes. An emboldened Macron will seek to launch new domestic-policy initiatives and redouble his diplomatic efforts related to the war in Ukraine. He will also pursue an ambitious policy agenda in the European Union, focused on building a more robust indigenous economic base, reducing energy dependencies and improving European defence capabilities.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"i - iii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42970663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-16DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2084242
In March 2022, the European Union adopted a ‘Strategic Compass for Security and Defence’, a joint strategy to strengthen the bloc’s military capabilities by 2030. EU member states have long under-invested in research and development in their defence sectors and have proved less able than competitors such as China and the United States to adapt emerging and disruptive technologies for use in their armed forces. The changes that the Strategic Compass proposes in this area are incremental rather than transformative, which suggests that there is still not a strong European political consensus for increasing the pace of defence innovation.
{"title":"Defence innovation and the European Union’s Strategic Compass","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2084242","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2084242","url":null,"abstract":"In March 2022, the European Union adopted a ‘Strategic Compass for Security and Defence’, a joint strategy to strengthen the bloc’s military capabilities by 2030. EU member states have long under-invested in research and development in their defence sectors and have proved less able than competitors such as China and the United States to adapt emerging and disruptive technologies for use in their armed forces. The changes that the Strategic Compass proposes in this area are incremental rather than transformative, which suggests that there is still not a strong European political consensus for increasing the pace of defence innovation.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"iv - vi"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47694148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-16DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2095742
The F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter built by Lockheed Martin in the United States is set to dominate the European fighter-jet market for the next two decades. The F-35, while costly to buy and maintain, outperforms current European models – the multinational Eurofighter Typhoon and aircraft made by Dassault and Saab – and has entered the market decades earlier than the European Future Combat Air System. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which prompted several European countries to announce unprecedented defence-spending increases, will further benefit the F-35 programme as countries consider making new acquisitions to strengthen their air forces.
{"title":"The state of the European fighter-jet market","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2095742","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2095742","url":null,"abstract":"The F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter built by Lockheed Martin in the United States is set to dominate the European fighter-jet market for the next two decades. The F-35, while costly to buy and maintain, outperforms current European models – the multinational Eurofighter Typhoon and aircraft made by Dassault and Saab – and has entered the market decades earlier than the European Future Combat Air System. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which prompted several European countries to announce unprecedented defence-spending increases, will further benefit the F-35 programme as countries consider making new acquisitions to strengthen their air forces.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"x - xii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45389665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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