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The nexus between microcredit nominal interest rates and inflation in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from panel vector autoregression analysis 撒哈拉以南非洲小额信贷名义利率与通货膨胀之间的关系:来自面板向量自回归分析的证据
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.3362/1755-1986.00038
Sydney Chikalipah
This paper investigates the dynamic effect of microcredit nominal interest rates and inflation, using a panel data of 315 microfinance institutions from 34 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 2003 to 2011. To do so, we employ a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model using efficient generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation as proposed by Blundell and Bond (1998). Apart from the full sample estimation, we further group our countries into three different income groups. Overall, the full sample estimation suggests that there is a negative relationship between inflation and microcredit nominal interest rates. The causality runs from inflation to microcredit nominal interest rates, whereas the reverse does not hold. Furthermore, the forecast error variances after 10 years have very low explanatory power for both microcredit nominal interest rates and inflation. Far more importantly, the significance of our study findings supports the Fisher effect (Fisher, 1930) and that microfinance len...
本文利用2003年至2011年撒哈拉以南非洲34个国家315家小额信贷机构的面板数据,研究了小额信贷名义利率和通货膨胀的动态影响。为此,我们采用了一个面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,该模型使用了由Blundell和Bond(1998)提出的有效广义矩量(GMM)估计方法。除了全样本估计,我们进一步将我们的国家分为三个不同的收入群体。总体而言,全样本估计表明,通货膨胀和小额信贷名义利率之间存在负相关关系。因果关系从通货膨胀到小额信贷名义利率,反之则不成立。此外,10年后的预测误差方差对小额信贷名义利率和通货膨胀的解释能力都很低。更重要的是,我们的研究结果的意义支持了Fisher效应(Fisher, 1930),小额信贷可以…
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引用次数: 5
Loan demand in Jordanian microfinance market: interest rate elasticity and loan-acceptance prediction via logistic regression 约旦小额信贷市场的贷款需求:利率弹性和基于逻辑回归的贷款接受预测
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.3362/1755-1986.16-00009
Franz Rembart, Erfan Soliman
Currently, more and more competitors enter the Jordanian microfinance market, offering a greater range of differentiated loan products, aggressive interest rates and loan terms. Our goal is to formulate loan-acceptance prediction methods and, ultimately, pricing strategies for Jordanian microfinance products by studying the customer behaviour of one of the three largest microfinance institutions in Jordan with a particular focus on interest elasticity of demand. We examine the hypothesis of a low interest rate elasticity of demand, and the possibility of increasing the interest rate without cannibalizing loan demand. We plan a methodology to pin down average interest rate elasticity by determining the driving factors affecting the demand. The methodologies we use are based on empirical demand studies and a logistic regression dependence model for loan demand. As a by-product of these studies, we provide a data set including 63 different demographic, educational, household, loan, and other characteristics ...
目前,越来越多的竞争对手进入约旦小额信贷市场,提供更广泛的差异化贷款产品、激进的利率和贷款条款。我们的目标是通过研究约旦三大小额信贷机构之一的客户行为,制定约旦小额信贷产品的贷款接受预测方法,并最终制定定价策略,特别关注需求的利息弹性。我们检验了需求的低利率弹性假设,以及在不蚕食贷款需求的情况下提高利率的可能性。我们计划通过确定影响需求的驱动因素来确定平均利率弹性。我们使用的方法基于实证需求研究和贷款需求的逻辑回归依赖模型。作为这些研究的副产品,我们提供了一个数据集,包括63种不同的人口、教育、家庭、贷款和其他特征。。。
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引用次数: 3
Graduation rates of micro and small enterprises in the Netherlands: it’s all about our missing memory 荷兰微型和小型企业的毕业率:都是因为我们错过了记忆
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.3362/1755-1986.00019
A. Kraaij, Klaas Molenaar
Micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) are seen by governments and NGOs as engines of job creation, growth and generation of income. Policies and programmes are therefore based on the assumption that the solo self-employed and micro-sized entrepreneurs will graduate and become small. But we have known since the 1980s that this assumption needed to be looked at critically. Research in developing countries revealed that graduation hardly existed there. And if this is true in emerging economies, would it not also be valid in industrialized countries where rhetoric and policies are based on this assumption too? What we see in the South might be valid in the North as well. The research was repeated first in the Netherlands, focusing on graduation and job creation in MSMEs. In this paper, a longitudinal data set was used of a cohort of entrepreneurs in the Netherlands that started in 2008. In total, 629 entrepreneurs were surveyed annually for four years. A main finding of the paper is that graduation har...
政府和非政府组织将微型、小型和中型企业视为创造就业、增长和创收的引擎。因此,政策和方案是基于这样一种假设,即个体经营者和微型企业家将毕业并变小。但自20世纪80年代以来,我们就知道需要批判性地看待这一假设。对发展中国家的研究表明,那里几乎不存在毕业现象。如果这在新兴经济体是真的,那么在言论和政策也基于这一假设的工业化国家,这难道也不成立吗?我们在南方看到的可能在北方也同样有效。这项研究首先在荷兰重复进行,重点关注中小微企业的毕业和创造就业机会。在本文中,使用了一组始于2008年的荷兰企业家的纵向数据集。四年来,每年共有629名企业家接受调查。论文的一个主要发现是,毕业典礼是一个很好的机会。。。
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引用次数: 1
Market systems development in education? An experimental case from Nigeria 教育市场体系的发展?尼日利亚的一个实验案例
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.3362/1755-1986.15-00032
B. Taylor, Sarah Barlow, R. Cunningham
Education is one of the most significant and persistent development challenges globally. Despite 65 years of investment of aid money into education in developing countries, the number of children emerging with key skills remains critically low. While enrolment has increased, there is evidence that this is the result of target chasing and has had limited impact on educational outcomes. The limited impact of aid on education should not be surprising. At best, aid to education has provided only a small supplement to an already broken system. This paper proposes a framework for the analysis of the motivations of aid programmes, and then employs this framework to examine different approaches to education and the parameters according to which they have succeeded or failed. Using the framework to explain why prevailing approaches have resulted in the outcomes realized, the paper then examines the possibility for an alternative approach to be taken to intervention in education, one which attempts to change the wa...
教育是全球最重大和最持久的发展挑战之一。尽管65年来援助资金一直投资于发展中国家的教育,但掌握关键技能的儿童数量仍然极低。虽然入学人数有所增加,但有证据表明,这是追求目标的结果,对教育成果的影响有限。援助对教育的有限影响并不奇怪。充其量,对教育的援助只是对已经支离破碎的体系的一小部分补充。本文提出了一个分析援助计划动机的框架,然后利用这个框架来研究不同的教育方法以及它们成功或失败的依据。利用该框架来解释为什么主流的方法导致了结果的实现,然后本文研究了采取另一种方法来干预教育的可能性,这种方法试图改变教育的现状。。。
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引用次数: 4
Approaches and tools for inclusive value chain development: lessons from Uganda for improved impact 包容性价值链发展的方法和工具:乌干达提高影响力的经验教训
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.3362/1755-1986.00036
D. Naziri, S. Mayanja, J. Ssemwanga, J. Donovan
Value chain development (VCD) with smallholders forms a central element of the poverty reduction strategies of governments and NGOs in developing countries. Nevertheless, too little is known about how VCD interventions are designed and implemented, the approaches and tools used, and the challenges faced in the process. This paper helps to fill this gap with evidence from six cases in Uganda. For each case, data was collected from interviews with NGOs, government organizations, buyers, and smallholder business organizations. Results indicate that use of available VCD guides and tools facilitated productive partnerships among chain actors, engagement with support organizations, and feedback mechanisms on intervention processes. Results also challenge NGOs, government agencies, and researchers to better understand the circumstances of resource-poor chain actors, the implications of VCD on gender relations, and the cultural and business context when designing and implementing VCD. This calls for stakeholders to employ a broader approach to VCD, using a combination of available and new tools, and to seek out deeper collaboration with key actors within and outside the value chain.
与小农户的价值链发展是发展中国家政府和非政府组织减贫战略的核心内容。然而,人们对VCD干预措施的设计和实施、使用的方法和工具以及在这一过程中面临的挑战知之甚少。本文用乌干达6起案件的证据填补了这一空白。对于每一个案例,数据都是从对非政府组织、政府组织、买家和小农户商业组织的采访中收集的。结果表明,使用现有的VCD指南和工具促进了连锁行为者之间的富有成效的伙伴关系、与支持组织的接触以及干预过程的反馈机制。研究结果还要求非政府组织、政府机构和研究人员在设计和实施VCD时更好地了解资源匮乏的连锁行为者的情况、VCD对性别关系的影响以及文化和商业背景。这要求利益相关者采用更广泛的VCD方法,结合现有和新的工具,并寻求与价值链内外的关键参与者进行更深入的合作。
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引用次数: 4
Editorial: Revisiting the role of business, technical, and financial services in fostering rural entrepreneurship 社论:重新审视商业、技术和金融服务在促进农村创业中的作用
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.3362/1755-1986.2017.28-4ED
J. Donovan, J. Hellin, D. Stoian
Over the past 15 or so years authors in Enterprise Development and Microfinance (EDM) have written extensively about the design and implementation of microfinance and its use by the poor, whether to respond to shocks and changing contexts, invest in education, or advance livelihood goals (Figure 1 overleaf). Coverage has ranged from the specifics of designing microfinance schemes, access to them by the poorest, and their impact on wellbeing and poverty. While the debate on microfinance is far from over, it is true that discussions have been more concerned with managing, saving, borrowing, and moving money, than about building viable businesses. Business development involving the poor, which in many cases focuses on rural small and medium enterprises (SMEs), requires us to address the demand for a range of services which, taken together, enhance the capacities of rural SMEs. Such services need to be affordable and reliable, and address the productive and business needs of SMEs, from small-scale processors to multi-tiered agricultural cooperatives. The issues are complex with lingering questions about how different types of service providers, from government agencies and NGOs to various private sector agents, can better design their services; and how, through adequate delivery mechanisms, the capacity and willingness of SMEs to employ such services can be strengthened. In this Editorial, we discuss some of the key issues for advancing rural entrepreneurship via improved services and provide an outlook for future discussions.
在过去15年左右的时间里,《企业发展与小额信贷》(EDM)的作者撰写了大量关于小额信贷的设计和实施以及穷人对其的使用的文章,无论是应对冲击和不断变化的环境,还是投资于教育,或是推进生计目标(图1背页)。涵盖范围从设计小额信贷计划的细节、最贫穷者获得这些计划的机会,以及它们对福祉和贫困的影响。虽然关于小额信贷的辩论远未结束,但确实,讨论更多地关注资金的管理、储蓄、借贷和转移,而不是建立可行的企业。涉及穷人的商业发展,在许多情况下侧重于农村中小企业,要求我们满足对一系列服务的需求,这些服务加在一起,可以提高农村中小企业的能力。这些服务必须是负担得起和可靠的,并满足中小企业的生产和商业需求,从小型加工商到多层农业合作社。这些问题很复杂,从政府机构和非政府组织到各种私营部门代理人,不同类型的服务提供商如何更好地设计他们的服务,这些问题挥之不去;以及如何通过适当的提供机制,加强中小企业利用此类服务的能力和意愿。在这篇社论中,我们讨论了通过改善服务促进农村创业的一些关键问题,并对未来的讨论进行了展望。
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引用次数: 0
Does microfinance help to reduce poverty in Ethiopia? Propensity score matching impact analysis. 小额信贷有助于减少埃塞俄比亚的贫困吗?倾向得分匹配影响分析。
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.3362/1755-1986.2017.HAW
Hailai Abera Weldeslassie
Microfinance has broadened rapidly since its inception in the late 1970s. However, scholars have divergent views on whether and how much it helps to lift the poor from the economic quagmire. This research investigates the assessment of the impact of participation in microfinance. It is difficult to disentangle the impact on poverty reduction of microfinance as an anti-poverty intervention scheme and establish a causal relationship between participation and poverty indicators, because of unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causality problems. Using the 2009 data set, first, we estimated propensity scores for participation on several pre-treatment variables. We then matched clients and non-clients on the basis of these variables. Next, we estimated the average treatment effect, considering participation as a treatment, and participants as the treated group. Finally, we employed different matching methods to establish the robustness of the utilized methods. In addition, for the year (2007 and 2009) panel data sets, we used the fixed effect (FE) and random effect (RE) panel data analysis techniques to fully address the two major problems stated above. Although we found significant impact of microfinance on household productive assets, its impact on fixed assets and monthly expenditure is insignificant. The propensity score matching and the panel data analyses identified microfinance as having direct temporary effects on household productive assets but limited (no) effect on households’ fixed assets and monthly expenditures.
小额信贷自20世纪70年代末成立以来迅速扩大。然而,对于是否以及在多大程度上帮助穷人摆脱经济困境,学者们众说纷纭。本研究调查了参与小额信贷的影响评估。由于未观察到的异质性和反向因果关系问题,很难理清小额信贷作为一种反贫困干预方案对减贫的影响,并在参与和贫困指标之间建立因果关系。使用2009年的数据集,首先,我们估计了几个治疗前变量的参与倾向得分。然后,我们根据这些变量匹配客户和非客户。接下来,我们估计了平均治疗效果,将参与视为一种治疗,将参与者视为治疗组。最后,我们采用了不同的匹配方法来建立所使用方法的鲁棒性。此外,对于2007年和2009年的面板数据集,我们使用固定效应(FE)和随机效应(RE)面板数据分析技术来充分解决上述两个主要问题。尽管我们发现小额信贷对家庭生产性资产有显著影响,但对固定资产和月度支出的影响并不显著。倾向得分匹配和小组数据分析表明,小额信贷对家庭生产性资产有直接的暂时影响,但对家庭固定资产和每月支出的影响有限(没有)。
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引用次数: 7
What is cocoa sustainability? Mapping stakeholders’ socio-economic, environmental, and commercial constellations of priorities 什么是可可的可持续性?绘制利益相关者的社会经济、环境和商业优先事项
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.3362/1755-1986.17-000JK
Judith E. Krauss
Given growing concerns regarding the chocolate sector’s long-term future, more private-sector, public-sector, and civil-society stakeholders have become involved in initiatives seeking to make cocoa more ‘sustainable’. However, the commercial, socio-economic, and environmental priorities they associate with the omnipresent, yet polysemic term diverge considerably: while transforming the crop into a more viable livelihood for growers is essential for some, others prioritize the crop’s links to global environmental challenges through agroforestry. A third dimension encompasses commercial concerns related to securing supply. The article explores how tensions and synergies manifest in these divergent understandings of what cocoa sustainability is and is to entail, which diverse civil-society, public-sector, and private-sector stakeholders bring to the table. It argues that priorities associated with ‘cocoa sustainability’ diverge, yielding synergies, tensions, and trade-offs. This article draws on the author’s in-depth doctoral fieldwork in cocoa sustainability initiatives incorporating environmental measures, which encompassed semi-structured interviews, focus-group discussions, documentary analysis, and participant observation in Latin America and Europe. It proposes the ‘constellations of priorities’ model as an instrument to capture how the priorities driving cocoa stakeholders variously dovetail, intersect, and collide. Particularly against the backdrop of the sector’s brewing crisis, the paper suggests that stakeholders systematically assess their and other actors’ socio-economic, environmental, and commercial priorities as part of the equitable engagement required to transform the sector and attain genuine cocoa sustainability.
鉴于对巧克力行业长期前景的担忧日益增加,越来越多的私营部门、公共部门和民间社会利益相关者参与到寻求使可可更具“可持续性”的倡议中来。然而,他们对这种无所不在的多义词的商业、社会经济和环境优先事项的看法存在很大分歧:虽然对一些人来说,将作物转化为种植者更可行的生计至关重要,但其他人则优先考虑通过农林业将作物与全球环境挑战联系起来。第三个方面包括与确保供应有关的商业问题。本文探讨了不同的公民社会、公共部门和私营部门利益相关者对可可可持续性的不同理解是如何体现出紧张和协同作用的。它认为,与“可可可持续性”相关的优先事项存在分歧,产生了协同效应、紧张关系和权衡。这篇文章借鉴了作者在可可豆可持续发展倡议方面的深入博士实地工作,包括半结构化访谈,焦点小组讨论,文献分析,以及在拉丁美洲和欧洲的参与者观察。它提出了“优先事项星座”模型,作为一种工具,以捕捉驱动可可利益相关者的优先事项如何以不同的方式吻合、相交和碰撞。特别是在该行业正在酝酿危机的背景下,本文建议利益相关者系统地评估他们和其他参与者的社会经济、环境和商业优先事项,作为该行业转型和实现真正的可可可持续性所需的公平参与的一部分。
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引用次数: 14
Six myths of farmer finance 农民金融六大神话
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.3362/1755-1986.15-00043
R. Kamp
This article revisits some of the most often held assumptions around smallholder finance, and presents field experiences and research challenging these ‘myths’ around supply and demand of agri-finance. On the credit supply side, the article finds that smallholders do not necessarily lack access to ‘finance’, but do not use formal bank loans much and rely more on informal lending. It argues that the characterization of informal moneylenders as usurious is overly simplistic, and sees clear market mechanisms at play in informal lending. The article also presents evidence that the agri sector is riskier than others sectors. On the demand side, evidence suggests that farmers do not always want to apply fertilizer to their farms, or even take out a loan if it were available. Finally, the opinion that farmers deserve a fair (low) interest rate is investigated. In conclusion, the article provides recommendations to policymakers and project designers about approaching agri-finance as a new product in an existing m...
本文回顾了关于小农融资的一些最常见的假设,并提出了挑战这些关于农业融资供需的“神话”的实地经验和研究。在信贷供给方面,这篇文章发现,小农不一定缺乏获得“融资”的途径,但他们很少使用正规银行贷款,而是更多地依赖非正式贷款。报告认为,将非正规放贷者定性为高利贷者过于简单化,并认为在非正规贷款中有明确的市场机制在起作用。这篇文章还提供了证据,表明农业部门比其他部门风险更大。在需求方面,有证据表明,农民并不总是想给他们的农场施肥,甚至在有贷款的情况下也不愿意贷款。最后,对农民应该获得公平(低)利率的观点进行了调查。最后,本文为政策制定者和项目设计者提供了一些建议,建议他们如何将农业金融作为一种新产品引入现有的金融体系。
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引用次数: 1
Trade-off between outreach and sustainability of microfinance institutions: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa 小额信贷机构的拓展与可持续性之间的权衡:来自撒哈拉以南非洲的证据
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.3362/1755-1986.16-00014
Adams Abdulai, D. Tewari
The changing landscape of the microfinance industry, which is characterized by a decline in donor funding, has reignited debates regarding the ability of microfinance institutions to serve the poor while remaining sustainable. In this study, we examined the relationship between outreach and sustainability in the context of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and analysed the determinants of sustainability using data from 71 microfinance institutions (MFIs) across 10 countries. By applying correlation analysis and fixed effects regression, we found mixed evidence of a trade-off between the depth of outreach and operational self-sustainability. Furthermore, the results show that interest rate is a major determinant for MFI sustainability, which is consistent with the institutionalist view. Factors that significantly influence the sustainability of MFIs in SSA are the average loan size as a percentage of gross national income, gross loan portfolio, portfolio at risk, operating expenses to assets ratio, governance effec...
小额信贷行业不断变化的格局,其特点是捐助资金的减少,重新引发了关于小额信贷机构在保持可持续发展的同时为穷人服务的能力的辩论。在本研究中,我们研究了撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)背景下的外联与可持续性之间的关系,并使用来自10个国家71家小额信贷机构(mfi)的数据分析了可持续性的决定因素。通过应用相关分析和固定效应回归,我们发现了外展深度和运营自我可持续性之间权衡的混合证据。此外,研究结果表明,利率是小额信贷机构可持续性的主要决定因素,这与制度主义观点一致。显著影响SSA小额信贷机构可持续性的因素是平均贷款规模占国民总收入的百分比、总贷款组合、风险投资组合、运营费用与资产比率、治理效果……
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引用次数: 32
期刊
Enterprise Development and Microfinance
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