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Review of Quantitative Methods for Designing Availability-Based Contracts 基于可用性契约设计的定量方法综述
Pub Date : 2016-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2016.1155185
Amir Reza Kashani Pour, P. Sandborn, Qingbin Cui
Understanding the total life-cycle cost is an essential part of all sustainment contracts. Sustainment constitutes 70% or more of the total life-cycle cost of safety-, mission-, and infrastructure-critical systems. For many types of systems, availability is the most critical factor in determining the total life-cycle cost of the system. To address this, availability-based contracts have been introduced in the governmental and non-governmental acquisitions space (e.g., energy, defense, transportation, and healthcare). As a result, in the new service-oriented environment, formulating contracts in cost effective ways (for both the customer and the contractor) is of great importance for pricing, negotiations, and transparency. Meanwhile, the development, implementation, and impact of contract and availability requirements within contracts is not well understood. This article reviews quantitative studies that address the critical elements for designing availability-based contracts. Assessments of current methodologies ranging from optimization- to simulation-based methods in domains of practice that utilize availability-based contracts are included, and research gaps are identified.
了解整个生命周期成本是所有维护合同的重要组成部分。维持费用占安全、任务和基础设施关键系统总生命周期成本的70%或更多。对于许多类型的系统,可用性是决定系统总生命周期成本的最关键因素。为解决这一问题,在政府和非政府采购领域(例如能源、国防、运输和医疗保健)引入了基于可获得性的合同。因此,在新的面向服务的环境中,以成本有效的方式制定合同(对客户和承包商都是如此)对于定价、谈判和透明度非常重要。同时,合同的开发、实现和影响以及合同中的可用性需求还没有得到很好的理解。本文回顾了针对设计基于可用性的契约的关键要素的定量研究。包括对当前方法的评估,从优化到基于模拟的方法,在利用基于可用性的合同的实践领域,并确定了研究差距。
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引用次数: 10
Tooth-to-Tail Impact Analysis: Combining Econometric Modeling and Bayesian Networks to Assess Support Cost Consequences Due to Changes in Force Structure 齿对尾的影响分析:结合计量经济模型和贝叶斯网络来评估由于力量结构变化造成的支持成本后果
Pub Date : 2016-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2016.1155186
Bradley C. Boehmke, Alan W. Johnson, E. White, J. Weir, Mark A. Gallagher
Current constraints in the fiscal environment are forcing the Air Force, and its sister services, to assess force reduction considerations. With significant force reduction comes the need to model and assess the potential impact that these changes may have on support resources. Previous research has remained heavily focused on a ratio approach for linking the tooth and tail ends of the Air Force cost spectrum and, although recent research has augmented this literature stream by providing more statistical rigor behind tooth-to-tail relationships, an adequate decision support tool has yet to be explored to aid decision-makers. The authors of this research directly address this concern by introducing a systematic approach to perform tooth-to-tail policy impact analysis. First, multivariate linear regression is applied to identify relationships between the tooth and tail. Then, a novel decision support system with Bayesian networks is introduced to model the tooth-to-tail cost consequences while capturing the uncertainty that often comes with such policy considerations. Through scenario analysis, the authors illustrate how a Bayesian network can provide decision-makers with (i) the ability to model uncertainty in the decision environment, (ii) a visual illustration of cause-and-effect impacts, and (iii) the ability to perform multi-directional reasoning in light of new information available to decision-makers.
目前财政环境的限制迫使空军及其姊妹军种评估削减兵力的考虑。随着部队的大量减少,需要对这些变化可能对支助资源产生的潜在影响进行建模和评估。以前的研究仍然主要集中在将空军成本谱的齿端和尾端连接起来的比率方法上,尽管最近的研究通过提供齿端到尾关系背后的更严格的统计数据来增强这一文献流,但尚未探索适当的决策支持工具来帮助决策者。本研究的作者通过引入一种系统的方法来执行从头到尾的政策影响分析,直接解决了这一问题。首先,应用多元线性回归识别齿尾之间的关系。然后,引入了一种具有贝叶斯网络的新型决策支持系统来模拟从牙齿到尾巴的成本后果,同时捕获通常伴随此类政策考虑而来的不确定性。通过情景分析,作者说明了贝叶斯网络如何为决策者提供(i)建模决策环境中的不确定性的能力,(ii)因果影响的可视化说明,以及(iii)根据决策者可获得的新信息执行多向推理的能力。
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引用次数: 4
Editorial Board EOV 编辑委员会EOV
Pub Date : 2015-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658x.2015.1098517
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引用次数: 0
Time Phasing Aircraft R&D Using the Weibull and Beta Distributions 使用威布尔和贝塔分布的时相飞机研发
Pub Date : 2015-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2015.1096219
Gregory Brown, E. White, J. Ritschel, Michael J. Seibel
Early research on time phasing primarily focuses on the theoretical foundation for applying the cumulative distribution function, or S-curve, to model the distribution of development expenditures. Minimal methodology prior to 2002 provides for estimating the S-curve’s parameter values. Brown et al. (2002) resolved this shortcoming through regression analysis, but their methodology is not specific to aircraft and does not consider aircraft-specific variables, such as first flight. Using a sample of 26 Department of Defense aircraft programs, we build upon Brown et al.’s work by examining whether a model driven by aircraft-specific variables can more accurately predict budget requirements. As a baseline, we compare our model to the commonly cited 60/40 “rule of thumb,” which assumes 60% expenditures at 50% schedule. We discover that our developed Weibull model explains 74.6% of total variation in annual budget, improving the estimation of budgets by 6.5%, on average, over the baseline 60/40 model.
早期对时间相位的研究主要集中在应用累积分布函数或s曲线来模拟发展支出分布的理论基础上。2002年以前的最小方法提供了估计s曲线参数值的方法。Brown等人(2002)通过回归分析解决了这一缺点,但他们的方法不是针对飞机的,也没有考虑飞机特定的变量,比如首次飞行。使用26架国防部飞机项目的样本,我们通过检查由飞机特定变量驱动的模型是否可以更准确地预测预算需求,从而建立Brown等人的工作。作为基线,我们将我们的模型与通常引用的60/40“经验法则”进行比较,该法则假设60%的支出在50%的时间表上。我们发现,我们开发的威布尔模型解释了年度预算总变化的74.6%,比基线60/40模型平均提高了6.5%的预算估计。
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引用次数: 7
Modifying Duration-Based Costing to Illustrate the Effect of Fixed Costs 修改持续时间成本法以说明固定成本的影响
Pub Date : 2015-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2015.1096221
A. Lelkes
This study introduces Modified Duration-Based Costing (MDBC) as an alternative to Duration-Based Costing (DBC) developed in Lelkes and Deis (2013). Both DBC and ABC have a tendency to treat fixed costs as though they were variable. This study expands on the DBC model by showing an alternative way of dealing with fixed costs instead of treating them as variable costs. This study uses analytical methodology and simulations to analyze MDBC relative to an Activity-Based Costing (ABC) system. The results of this study imply that the proportion of fixed costs will affect how close the MDBC cost assignments are to those of ABC. The lower the proportion of fixed costs, the closer the MDBC cost assignments are to those of ABC. MDBC has the potential to be a feasible alternative of ABC. MDBC is valuable if, for decision-making purposes, management wants to keep the effects of fixed costs separate from variable costs. Moreover, using MDBC is less costly and easier to implement, maintain, and update than ABC.
本研究引入了改进的基于持续时间成本法(MDBC),作为Lelkes和Deis(2013)开发的基于持续时间成本法(DBC)的替代方案。DBC和ABC都倾向于将固定成本视为可变成本。本研究通过展示处理固定成本而不是将其视为可变成本的另一种方法,扩展了DBC模型。本研究使用分析方法和模拟来分析与作业成本核算(ABC)系统相关的MDBC。本研究的结果表明,固定成本的比例将影响MDBC成本分配与ABC成本分配的接近程度。固定成本所占比例越低,MDBC的成本分配与ABC的成本分配越接近。MDBC有可能成为ABC的一种可行的替代方案。如果出于决策目的,管理层希望将固定成本的影响与可变成本分开,则MDBC是有价值的。此外,与ABC相比,使用MDBC成本更低,而且更容易实现、维护和更新。
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引用次数: 3
Covered with Oil: Incorporating Realism in Cost Risk Analysis 油层覆盖:在成本风险分析中融入现实主义
Pub Date : 2015-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2015.1096220
C. Smart
When Jimmy Buffett sang the words “All of those tourists covered with oil” in his song Margaritaville he probably never imagined that this phrase might apply to crude oil instead of suntan lotion. Both the cost and the environmental impact from the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico were much worse than anyone had expected or could have predicted. It was, in the words of financial writer, Nassim Taleb, a “black swan”—an unexpected event with tremendous consequences. These types of events, like Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the giant tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004, and the financial crisis that began in 2007, are all examples of events with huge impacts that were hard to foresee. In the arena of government projects, outsized events, such as the Challenger and Columbia Space Shuttle disasters, cost billions of extra dollars and are not budgeted against. It may be reasonable to not budget for some events that are outside of the project management’s control, since doing so will likely lead to excess reserves that go unspent. Unlike natural disasters, project managers have some control over their destiny to the extent that they can meet budget, schedule, and scope by cutting content, and in the cases of extreme overruns, those in authority can cancel projects once they become unmanageable. But budgets for public projects typically include very little risk reserves and do not account for even minimal changes in a project’s design or relatively mild external forces that should be accounted for. In this article, the author examines historical cost risk analyses and compares them to final actual costs, finding significant differences between the two. Reasons for under-representation of risk are discussed, and remedies for this situation are discussed, including the notion of calibration.
当吉米•巴菲特在他的歌曲《玛格丽塔维尔》(Margaritaville)中唱到“所有那些浑身沾满石油的游客”时,他可能从未想到这句话可能适用于原油,而不是防晒霜。2010年墨西哥湾石油泄漏的成本和环境影响都比任何人预期或能够预测的要严重得多。用财经作家纳西姆•塔勒布的话来说,这是一只“黑天鹅”——一个带来巨大后果的意外事件。这些类型的事件,如2005年的卡特里娜飓风,2004年印度洋的巨大海啸,以及2007年开始的金融危机,都是难以预见的巨大影响事件的例子。在政府项目的舞台上,大型事件,如挑战者号和哥伦比亚号航天飞机的灾难,花费了数十亿美元,而且没有预算。不为项目管理控制之外的一些事件做预算可能是合理的,因为这样做可能会导致多余的储备未被使用。与自然灾害不同,项目经理在一定程度上可以控制他们的命运,他们可以通过削减内容来满足预算、进度和范围,并且在极端超支的情况下,一旦项目变得无法管理,那些当权者可以取消项目。但是,公共项目的预算通常只包括很少的风险准备金,甚至没有考虑到项目设计的最小变化或应该考虑的相对温和的外部力量。在本文中,作者检查了历史成本风险分析,并将其与最终实际成本进行了比较,发现两者之间存在显著差异。讨论了风险代表性不足的原因,并讨论了对这种情况的补救措施,包括校准的概念。
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引用次数: 5
Pioneers of Parametrics: Origins and Evolution of Software Cost Estimation 参数化的先驱:软件成本估算的起源和演变
Pub Date : 2015-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2015.1070562
R. Valerdi
This article provides an historical account of the development of the field of software cost estimation, specifically the area of parametrics, through information obtained during interviews of 13 pioneers in the field. Cost model developers, users, and practitioners were interviewed with the intent to capture their views on the impact between cost estimation research and practice. Each perspective sheds light on the areas in which the field of parametrics has had an impact and which synergies have been influential in the development of the field. The implications of the findings are discussed in light of the future challenges for the field of parametrics.
本文通过对13位该领域先驱的采访获得的信息,提供了软件成本估算领域发展的历史记录,特别是参数领域。我们采访了成本模型开发者、用户和从业者,目的是获取他们对成本估算研究和实践之间影响的看法。每一种观点都阐明了参数领域产生影响的领域以及协同作用对该领域的发展产生影响的领域。研究结果的含义讨论了在未来的挑战领域的参数。
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引用次数: 1
Bending the Cost Curve: Moving the Focus from Macro-level to Micro-level Cost Trends with Cluster Analysis 弯曲成本曲线:利用聚类分析将焦点从宏观层面转移到微观层面的成本趋势
Pub Date : 2015-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2015.1064046
Bradley C. Boehmke, Alan W. Johnson, E. White, J. Weir, Mark A. Gallagher
“Bending the cost curve” has become the ambiguous jargon employed in recent years to emphasize the notion of changing unwanted cost trends. In response to the planned $1 trillion Department of Defense budget reduction over the next six years, the Air Force has launched its own Bending the Cost Curve initiative in an effort to reduce cost growth. A principal concern with Bending the Cost Curve initiatives and research to date is the central focus on aggregate cost trajectories which can obscure the true underlying growth curves which require attention. In response, the authors apply a novel growth curve clustering approach to identify underlying cost curve behavior across the Air Force enterprise. They find that micro-level growth curves vary greatly from the aggregate cost curves. Furthermore, they illustrate how this approach can help decision-makers to direct their focus, proposals, and policy actions toward specific growth curves that must be “bent.”
近年来,“弯曲成本曲线”已经成为一个模棱两可的术语,用来强调改变不必要的成本趋势。为了响应国防部计划在未来6年削减1万亿美元预算的计划,空军已经启动了自己的弯曲成本曲线计划,以努力减少成本增长。迄今为止,弯曲成本曲线计划和研究的主要关注点是集中在总成本轨迹上,这可能会掩盖需要注意的真正潜在的增长曲线。作为回应,作者应用了一种新的增长曲线聚类方法来识别整个空军企业的潜在成本曲线行为。他们发现微观层面的增长曲线与总成本曲线差异很大。此外,他们还说明了这种方法如何帮助决策者将他们的关注点、建议和政策行动引向必须“弯曲”的特定增长曲线。
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引用次数: 5
Using Earned Value Data to Forecast the Duration of Department of Defense Space Acquisition Programs 利用挣值数据预测国防部空间采办项目的持续时间
Pub Date : 2015-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2015.1062817
Shedrick M Bridgeforth, J. Ritschel, E. White, Grant Keaton
Traditional earned value management techniques to predict final costs of space acquisition programs are historically inaccurate. A 2015 study by the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency (Keaton 2015) sought to improve the accuracy of the cost estimate at completion for space system contracts through a linear relationship between budgeted cost for work performed and time. That study found schedule duration to be a cost driver, but assumed the underlying schedule duration estimate was accurate. This research expands upon the previous research through an improved duration estimation methodology. Next, we incorporate our duration methodology into various estimate at complete models to derive a more accurate estimate at complete for space acquisition programs. Our methods improve the accuracy by 6.5% over existing methods. The results offer an alternative approach to schedule duration estimates and earned value estimate at complete calculations that may be useful to cost analysts and program managers.
传统的挣值管理技术预测空间采掘项目的最终成本是不准确的。2015年空军成本分析机构(Keaton 2015)的一项研究试图通过执行工作的预算成本与时间之间的线性关系来提高空间系统合同完成时成本估算的准确性。该研究发现进度持续时间是一个成本驱动因素,但假设基础进度持续时间估计是准确的。本研究在以往研究的基础上,提出了一种改进的持续时间估计方法。接下来,我们将我们的持续时间方法纳入各种完整模型的估算中,以获得更准确的空间获取计划完整估算。我们的方法比现有方法的准确率提高了6.5%。结果提供了一种替代方法,可以在完整的计算中进行进度持续时间估计和挣值估计,这可能对成本分析师和项目经理有用。
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引用次数: 0
A Literature Survey and Future Directions for Product Development: A Focus on Conceptual Design Stage 产品开发的文献综述与未来方向:以概念设计阶段为焦点
Pub Date : 2015-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2015.1068717
S. Tyagi, Xianming Cai, Kai Yang
Product development process follows a sequence of activities, methods, and tools to design and develop a high quality product. An optimized strategy for a single generation product development may not be the best choice when multi-generation scenarios are considered. In this article an attempt has been made to study the nature of multi-generational product development and compare it with that of single generation product development to drive validating arguments. Further, a qualitative analysis framework for multi-generational product development is developed to identify correct user requirements and to propose a reusability concept during the concept design stage. In order to capture the right customer requirements clearly in the product definition phase, axiomatic design with design failure mode and effects analysis approach is reviewed. For architecture development, the design for modularity and design for reusability have been discussed. This qualitative analysis framework is based on the related case studies summarized from the industrial projects during the past 2 years. The qualitative data is obtained through face-to-face interviews, site visits, observations, and documentation at several companies, which produce both types of product. With detailed design information up front, a better concept could be selected to meet the overall objective of an organization. Additionally, targeting product development from multi-generational product development aspects optimizes the overall resource planning, investment, and thus maximizing the profit.
产品开发过程遵循一系列活动、方法和工具来设计和开发高质量的产品。当考虑多代场景时,针对单代产品开发的优化策略可能不是最佳选择。本文试图研究多代产品开发的本质,并将其与单代产品开发进行比较,以推动验证论点。进一步,为多代产品开发开发了一个定性分析框架,以识别正确的用户需求,并在概念设计阶段提出可重用性概念。为了在产品定义阶段清晰地捕获正确的客户需求,本文回顾了基于设计失效模式和影响分析的公理设计方法。对于体系结构开发,讨论了模块化设计和可重用性设计。这个定性分析框架是基于过去两年工业项目中总结的相关案例研究。定性数据是通过面对面的访谈,实地考察,观察,并在几家公司,生产这两种类型的产品文件获得。有了详细的设计信息,可以选择更好的概念来满足组织的总体目标。此外,从多代产品开发的角度来定位产品开发,优化了整体的资源规划、投资,从而实现利润最大化。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics
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