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Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics最新文献

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Using Budgeted Cost of Work Performed to Predict Estimates at Completion for Mid-Acquisition Space Programs 使用已完成工作的预算成本来预测中期采办空间项目的完成预算
Pub Date : 2015-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2015.1016585
C. Keaton
Conventional techniques to predict estimates at completion using earned value management data generally underpredict the end costs for space acquisition programs. This research assesses the accuracies of earned value management analysis methods to forecast estimates at completion for on-going space system acquisitions. The identification of more accurate “mid-stream” earned value management analysis methods improves managers’ abilities to assess the reasonableness of cost estimates. This research finds the linear relationship between budgeted cost of work performed and time yields a more accurate earned value management-based prediction for space program estimates at completion than existing methods. This result offers an empirically-supported method for earned value management data that may be useful to cost analysts and managers alike.
利用挣值管理数据预测完井估算的传统技术通常会低估空间采办项目的最终成本。本研究评估了挣值管理分析方法的准确性,以预测正在进行的空间系统采办的完成预算。更准确的“中游”挣值管理分析方法的识别提高了管理者评估成本估算合理性的能力。本研究发现,预算工作成本与时间之间的线性关系比现有方法更能准确地预测空间计划完成时的挣值管理。这一结果为挣值管理数据提供了一种经验支持的方法,可能对成本分析师和经理都很有用。
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引用次数: 2
To Cost an Elephant: An Exploratory Survey on Cost Estimating Practice in the Light of Product-Service-Systems 象的成本:基于产品-服务系统的成本估算实践的探索性调查
Pub Date : 2015-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2015.1016588
E. Settanni, N. E. Thenent, L. Newnes, G. Parry, Y. Goh
Businesses now contracting for availability are regarded as part of a paradigm shift away from the familiar ‘product and support’ business model. The main difference being that such businesses eventually commit to provide a service outcome via product-service-system. The research presented in this article investigates how current cost estimating practice relates with the idea of having as the point of focus for the analysis a product-service-system delivering service outcomes, rather than a product. Since the topic is in its infancy, an exploratory survey was designed and circulated via the Internet among practitioners with the aim of looking for initial patterns, ideas, and hypotheses, rather than to confirm existing ones. The picture that seems to emerge is that respondents would not necessarily see the representation and modeling of a product-service-system as being a precondition to estimate the cost of the service it provides. In line with most academic literature, respondents would rather consider the cost of providing a service via product-service-system as conceptually equivalent to the cost of the in-service stage of a durable product. Although not allowing for generalization, this research reveals paths that may be worth exploring further.
现在的业务合同的可用性被认为是范式转变的一部分,从熟悉的“产品和支持”的业务模式。主要区别在于,这些企业最终承诺通过产品-服务系统提供服务结果。本文中提出的研究调查了当前的成本估算实践是如何与将交付服务结果的产品-服务系统(而不是产品)作为分析焦点的想法联系起来的。由于该主题尚处于起步阶段,因此设计了一项探索性调查,并通过互联网在从业者中传播,目的是寻找初始模式、想法和假设,而不是确认现有的模式、想法和假设。似乎出现的情况是,受访者不一定会将产品-服务系统的表示和建模视为估计其提供的服务成本的先决条件。与大多数学术文献一致,受访者宁愿认为通过产品-服务系统提供服务的成本在概念上等同于耐用产品在使用阶段的成本。虽然不能一概而论,但这项研究揭示了值得进一步探索的途径。
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引用次数: 7
Predicting the Likelihood of Cost Overruns: An Empirical Examination of Major Department of Defense Acquisition Programs 预测成本超支的可能性:对国防部主要采办项目的实证研究
Pub Date : 2015-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2015.1016587
Alan K. Gideon, James S. Wasek
This article provides a method for predicting the cost of a major acquisition program five years after program development approval. The authors’ work extends the effort begun by Asher and Maggelet by adjusting for changes in median cost growth factors for each acquisition domain. Procurement average unit costs at program approval and five years afterwards were compared for 101 major United States Department of Defense acquisition programs. Individual program cost growth ratios were gathered into 28 sub-groups, based on the product and year of approval. The authors employed a least squares regression to obtain the equation’s coefficients. In 26 of the 28 groups of data, a comparison of predicted costs to actual costs resulted in very low p-values, leading to the conclusion that the revised formulation is a valid predictor of program cost at the five-year point in product development.
本文提供了一种在项目开发批准后五年预测重大采办项目成本的方法。作者的工作扩展了Asher和Maggelet开始的工作,通过调整每个获取领域的中位数成本增长因素的变化。项目批准时和五年后的采购平均单位成本对美国国防部101个主要采办项目进行了比较。根据产品和批准年份,将单个项目的成本增长率分成28个分组。作者采用最小二乘回归法求出方程的系数。在28组数据中的26组中,预测成本与实际成本的比较导致p值非常低,从而得出结论,修订后的公式是产品开发五年时间点上项目成本的有效预测因子。
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引用次数: 2
Parametric Scale-Up Cost Factors for Conventional and Micro-Scale Tools 常规和微型工具的参数化放大成本因素
Pub Date : 2015-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2015.1020397
D. S. Remer, Kerry M. Chin
This article estimates cost scale-up factors for micro-scale tools, including high speed steel micro tools, micro thread hand taps, and various types of mesh and wires. Many of these tools initially have a positive scale-up factor where the material costs directly correlate with the cost of the tool; they then transition to a negative scale-up factor at the micro-scale where manufacturing is more difficult and becomes the determining factor for the prices of the products. This article describes the transition from positive to negative scale-up factors, which generally has not been previously reported in the literature. In the future, the negative scale-up factor region of cost estimation could become more important because products, such as electronic hardware, will continue to become smaller in size.
本文估计了微型工具的成本放大因素,包括高速钢微型工具,微螺纹手丝锥,以及各种类型的网格和电线。许多此类工具最初都具有积极的放大因子,其中材料成本与工具成本直接相关;然后,它们在微观规模上转变为负规模因子,在微观规模上制造更加困难,并成为产品价格的决定因素。本文描述了从积极到消极的放大因素的转变,这在以前的文献中通常没有报道过。在未来,成本估算的负比例因子区域可能变得更加重要,因为产品,如电子硬件,将继续变得更小的尺寸。
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引用次数: 0
An Assumptions-Based Framework for TRL-Based Cost and Schedule Models 基于trl的成本和进度模型的假设框架
Pub Date : 2014-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2014.982232
Bernard El-Khoury, C. Robert Kenley
The Technology Readiness Level scale has been used to assess progress and provide a framework for developing technology. Many Technology Readiness Level-based cost and schedule models have been developed to monitor technology maturation, mitigate program risk, characterize transition times, or model schedule and cost risk for individual technologies as well technology systems and portfolios. We present a four-level classification of models based on the often-implicit assumptions they make. For each level, we clarify the assumptions made, review evidence that supports the assumptions, and propose alternative or improved models. Our results include a justification of the recommendations of the US General Accounting Office on Technology Readiness Level, two new methodologies for robust estimation of median transition times and for forecasting transition times using historical data, and a set of recommendations for Technology Readiness Level-based regression models.
技术准备等级量表被用来评估进展,并为开发技术提供一个框架。许多基于技术准备水平的成本和进度模型已经被开发出来,用于监控技术成熟,减轻项目风险,描述转换时间,或者为单个技术以及技术系统和投资组合建模进度和成本风险。我们根据通常隐含的假设对模型进行了四级分类。对于每个层次,我们澄清所做的假设,审查支持假设的证据,并提出替代或改进的模型。我们的结果包括对美国总会计办公室关于技术准备水平的建议的论证,两种用于稳健估计中位数过渡时间和使用历史数据预测过渡时间的新方法,以及一组基于技术准备水平的回归模型的建议。
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引用次数: 2
On the Shoulders of Giants: A Tribute to Prof. Barry W. Boehm 站在巨人的肩膀上:致敬Barry W. Boehm教授
Pub Date : 2014-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2014.987005
J. Lane, D. Galorath, R. Valerdi
Prof. Barry Boehm’s life work is full of contributions to the software engineering and systems engineering disciplines. This article presents Prof. Barry Boehm’s work in the context of the giants on whose shoulders he stands as well as the people he has mentored to carry on his work. Much of Prof. Boehm’s work described in this article focuses on his key contributions to the software and system development industries, as well as from the perspective of the enduring legacy he has established with his industry affiliates and students.
Barry Boehm教授毕生的工作都是对软件工程和系统工程学科的贡献。这篇文章介绍了Barry Boehm教授在巨人的背景下的工作,他站在巨人的肩膀上,以及他指导的人们继续他的工作。本文中描述的Boehm教授的大部分工作都集中在他对软件和系统开发行业的主要贡献上,以及从他与他的行业附属机构和学生建立的持久遗产的角度来看。
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引用次数: 0
EOV Ed Board EOV板
Pub Date : 2014-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658x.2014.991244
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引用次数: 0
A Process for the Development and Evaluation of Preliminary Construction Material Quantity Estimation Models Using Backward Elimination Regression and Neural Networks 基于逆向消去回归和神经网络的建筑材料数量初步估算模型的开发与评估过程
Pub Date : 2014-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2014.984880
Borja García de Soto, B. Adey, D. Fernando
During the early stages of a project, it is beneficial to have an accurate preliminary estimate of its cost. One way to make those estimates is by determining the amount of construction material quantities that are required and then multiplying the estimated construction material quantities by the corresponding unit cost. One advantage of making estimates in this way is that it allows for the segregation of quantities and costs. This way they can be updated separately as new information becomes available. They can also be tracked separately allowing decision makers to make better decisions about the project during its conceptual phase. There are several techniques that can be used to develop estimation models. The most common include regression analysis and artificial intelligence, such as neural networks. Work has been done, however, in a non-standardized way, leaving practitioners without guidance as to how to develop and evaluate models for their specific purposes. This can be seen in particular in the many different types of metrics used for the evaluation of models. The goal of the work presented in this article was to create a process to (1) develop models to be used to prepare preliminary estimates of construction material quantities taking into consideration the available data during the early stages of a project, and (2) evaluate the developed models using the Akaike information criterion. The proposed process is illustrated with an example in which data from 58 storage buildings was used to develop models to estimate the amount of concrete and reinforcement required using backward elimination regression analysis and neural network techniques. The developed models were then evaluated using a second-order correction Akaike information criterion (AICc) to select the most accurate model for each construction material quantity. The proposed process is useful for practitioners in need of developing robust estimation models in a consistent and systematic way, and the AICc metric proved to be effective for selecting the most accurate models from a set.
在项目的早期阶段,对其成本有一个准确的初步估计是有益的。进行估算的一种方法是确定所需的建筑材料数量,然后将估算的建筑材料数量乘以相应的单位成本。以这种方式进行估算的一个优点是,它允许数量和成本的分离。这样,当有新信息可用时,它们就可以单独更新。它们也可以单独跟踪,以便决策者在项目的概念阶段做出更好的决策。有几种技术可用于开发评估模型。最常见的包括回归分析和人工智能,如神经网络。然而,工作是以一种非标准化的方式完成的,使得从业者没有指导如何为他们的特定目的开发和评估模型。这可以在用于模型评估的许多不同类型的度量中特别看到。本文中提出的工作目标是创建一个过程:(1)开发模型,用于在项目早期阶段考虑到可用数据,准备建筑材料数量的初步估计,以及(2)使用赤池信息标准评估开发的模型。通过一个例子说明了所提出的过程,其中使用了来自58个存储建筑物的数据来开发模型,以使用反向消除回归分析和神经网络技术来估计所需的混凝土和钢筋量。然后使用二阶校正赤池信息准则(AICc)对所开发的模型进行评估,以选择每个建筑材料数量最准确的模型。对于需要以一致和系统的方式开发稳健估计模型的从业者来说,所提出的过程是有用的,并且AICc度量被证明是从一组模型中选择最准确的模型是有效的。
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引用次数: 17
Development of a Product Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Model to Support Engineering Decision-Making in a Multi-Generational Product Development Environment 多代产品开发环境下支持工程决策的产品全生命周期成本估算模型的建立
Pub Date : 2014-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2014.982403
Xianming Cai, S. Tyagi
The research under product development domain identifies and implements new concepts in design, planning, manufacturing, testing, and service sectors to keep up with the market demands. Many product developments are multi-generational in nature and may require redesigning the product at each generation because an optimized strategy for a single generation may not be the best option in the multi-generation scenarios. With this regard, this article proposes a novel product life-cycle cost estimation model to support engineering decision-making in a multi-generational product development environment. This cost estimation model develops a mathematical formulation which has three major cost constituents: development cost, service cost, and associated risks cost. The risks cost further includes three components coming from technical risk, market risk, and operation risk. The developed mathematical formulation measures the on-going multi-generational product development’s status, addresses its basic needs such as design for future reuse. It also serves as a strategic decision-making tool for successful project management. For the purpose of validating the proposed cost model, an empirical case study of a manufacturing-based product (gas turbine) is illustrated by considering three candidate concepts. This cost estimation is very handy to those design engineers who have a little idea of cost analysis when they design a product. It assists design teams by accurately forecasting and strategically planning a project and by making decisions which are compatible with future generations at a relatively cheaper cost. Thus, this article aims to provide a new direction and approach to maximize the business profit earned from multi-generational products.
产品开发领域的研究在设计、规划、制造、测试和服务领域识别和实施新概念,以跟上市场需求。许多产品开发本质上是多代的,可能需要在每一代重新设计产品,因为针对单代的优化策略可能不是多代场景中的最佳选择。为此,本文提出了一种新的产品生命周期成本估算模型,以支持多代产品开发环境下的工程决策。该成本估算模型开发了一个数学公式,其中包含三个主要成本组成部分:开发成本、服务成本和相关风险成本。风险成本又包括技术风险、市场风险和操作风险三个组成部分。所开发的数学公式衡量了正在进行的多代产品开发的状态,解决了其基本需求,如未来重用的设计。它还可以作为成功的项目管理的战略决策工具。为了验证所提出的成本模型,通过考虑三个候选概念,对基于制造的产品(燃气轮机)进行了实证案例研究。对于那些在设计产品时对成本分析稍有了解的设计工程师来说,这种成本估算非常方便。它帮助设计团队准确地预测和战略性地规划项目,并以相对较低的成本做出与未来世代兼容的决策。因此,本文旨在提供一个新的方向和方法,以最大限度地提高从多代产品中获得的商业利润。
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引用次数: 13
Comparing Lifecycle Sustainment Strategies in an Electronic Component Obsolescence Environment 电子元件报废环境下的生命周期维持策略比较
Pub Date : 2014-05-04 DOI: 10.1080/1941658X.2014.922906
Kenneth D. Underwood, Jeffrey A. Ogden, Matthew Mcconville
Rapid advancements in technology and the diminishing lifecycle of electronic systems have complicated the sourcing and sustainment activities of many organizations as suppliers of original components go out of business or refuse to produce obsolete products. This article explores diminishing manufacturing sources and material shortages as well as the obsolescence costs and reliability issues associated with electronic components. Using the current United States Air Force situation as an example, the overall research question asks how obsolescence management can be improved through various sourcing strategies. This article utilizes a simulation model to evaluate equipment demand requirements and sustainment costs for three different approaches: (1) a re-engineering strategy, (2) a lifetime buy strategy, and (3) a programmed redesign strategy. Statistical analysis and long-term forecasted cost comparisons of these three strategies provide a framework to help acquisition, and sustainment managers determine the approach with the lowest total cost of ownership.
技术的快速发展和电子系统生命周期的缩短使许多组织的采购和维护活动变得复杂,因为原始组件的供应商已经停业或拒绝生产过时的产品。本文探讨了减少制造来源和材料短缺,以及与电子元件相关的过时成本和可靠性问题。以目前美国空军的情况为例,总体研究问题是如何通过各种采购策略来改进陈旧管理。本文利用仿真模型来评估三种不同方法的设备需求需求和维持成本:(1)重新设计策略,(2)终身购买策略,(3)程序化重新设计策略。统计分析和这三种策略的长期预测成本比较提供了一个框架,以帮助获取和维护经理确定具有最低总拥有成本的方法。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics
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