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Mark Blaug on the Historiography of Economics 马克·布劳格谈经济学史学
Pub Date : 2012-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2094422
John B. Davis
This paper discusses how Mark Blaug reversed his thinking about the historiography of economics, abandoning rational reconstructions for historical ones, by using an economics of scientific knowledge argument against Paul Samuelson and others that rational reconstructions of past ideas and theories in the 'marketplace of ideas' were Pareto inefficient. Blaug’s positive argument for historical reconstructions was built on the concept of 'lost content' and his rejection of the end-state view of competition in favor of a process conception. He used these ideas to emphasize path dependency in the development of economic thinking, thereby advancing an evolutionary view of economics that has connections to his Lakatosian research programs understanding of economic methodology. The paper argues that Blaug was essentially successful in criticizing the standard view of the history of economic thought in economics, and that this is borne out by the nature of the change in recent economics.
本文讨论了马克·布劳格如何扭转他对经济学史学的思考,通过使用科学知识经济学来反对保罗·萨缪尔森和其他人的观点,即在“思想市场”中对过去思想和理论的理性重建是帕累托低效的,从而放弃了对历史的理性重建。布劳格对历史重建的积极论证是建立在“失去的内容”的概念上的,他拒绝了竞争的最终状态观,赞成过程概念。他用这些观点来强调经济思想发展中的路径依赖,从而提出了一种与他的拉卡托斯式研究项目对经济方法论的理解有关的进化论经济学观点。本文认为,布劳格在批判经济学中经济思想史的标准观点方面取得了本质上的成功,这一点得到了近代经济学变化本质的证明。
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引用次数: 15
What Happened to Knightian (and Keynesian) Uncertainty Post WWII?: A Philosophic History 二战后奈特(和凯恩斯)的不确定性发生了什么?《哲学史
Pub Date : 2012-04-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2033117
E. Schliesser
In this paper I argue that in the period after 1945 in the main currents of academic (technical) economics a commitment to-so-called Knightian uncertainty got displaced by two strategies: i) a simple displacement strategy (heavily promoted by Arrow and Samuelson), in which un-measurable uncertainty simply got treated as quantifiable risk; ii) a sophisticated displacement strategy (due to Alchian), which turned uncertainty into randomness understood as a stochastic process. The point of my narrative is to illustrate what a so-called “Kuhn-loss” looks like in practice. In the philosophy of science literature, insights of discarded theories that cannot be articulated or recognized by the new theory are instances of Kuhn-losses. A Kuhn-loss is often accompanied by the suppression of long-standing objections or even reliable alternative approaches. This is not merely of philosophic interest; Kuhn helped popularize a view of paradigms that allowed social-scientific practitioners to claim that they need not answer all objections. This paper proceeds as follows in three main sections: first, I briefly use a remarkable, recent self-study by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) as an exemplar of the re-discovery of uncertainty in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and, in particular, to illustrate how difficult it is for these policy economists to find a way to describe it with their conceptual apparatus. Second, I briefly sketch the pre-1945 approach to uncertainty. In doing so I make two main points: A) uncertainty was accepted by thinkers as politically and intellectually diverse as Frank Knight and John Maynard Keynes. B) I distinguish between epistemic and metaphysical versions of uncertainty. Third, I describe what happened with uncertainty in the context of the formal revolution in economics. I describe the simple displacement strategy in general outline. I then analyze the sophisticated displacement in some more detail. I argue that uncertainty got displaced by successor concepts that are neither identical to it nor to each other.
在本文中,我认为在1945年之后的时期,在学术(技术)经济学的主流中,对所谓的奈特式不确定性的承诺被两种策略所取代:I)一种简单的替代策略(由阿罗和萨缪尔森大力推广),在这种策略中,不可测量的不确定性被简单地视为可量化的风险;ii)复杂的置换策略(由于Alchian),将不确定性转化为随机过程的随机性。我的叙述是为了说明所谓的“库恩损失”在实践中是什么样子的。在科学文献的哲学中,被抛弃的理论的见解不能被新的理论所阐述或认可,这就是库恩损失的例子。库恩损失通常伴随着对长期存在的反对意见的压制,甚至是对可靠的替代方法的压制。这不仅仅是哲学上的兴趣;库恩帮助推广了一种范式观,这种范式观允许社会科学从业者声称他们不需要回答所有的反对意见。本文分为三个主要部分:首先,我简要地使用了荷兰经济政策分析局(CPB)最近进行的一项引人注目的自我研究,作为2008年金融危机后重新发现不确定性的一个例子,特别是,为了说明这些政策经济学家找到一种用他们的概念工具来描述不确定性的方法是多么困难。其次,我简要概述了1945年以前对不确定性的态度。在这样做的过程中,我提出了两个主要观点:A)不确定性被像弗兰克·奈特(Frank Knight)和约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)这样在政治和智力上都很多样化的思想家所接受。B)我区分了不确定性的认识论版本和形而上学版本。第三,我描述了在经济学正式革命的背景下发生的不确定性。我大致描述了简单的置换策略。然后,我更详细地分析了复杂的位移。我认为,不确定性被后继概念所取代,这些概念与不确定性既不相同,也互不相同。
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引用次数: 2
New Institutionalism: Roots and Buds 新制度主义:根与芽
Pub Date : 2012-03-28 DOI: 10.3917/MANA.155.0460
B. Forgues, R. Greenwood, Ignasi Martí, Philippe Monin, P. Walgenbach
The roots of the new institutional theory are well known (Scott, 2008). Meyer and Rowan (1977) undermined the (then) prevailing imagery of organizations as quasi-rational actors navigating economic and technical contingencies, showing instead that organizations are influenced by socio-cultural and cognitive (institutional) factors that prescribe and proscribe appropriate behavior. Organizations conform to institutional prescriptions because doing so provides social approval (legitimacy) and enhances organizational survival. DiMaggio and Powell (1983) took these ideas forward by elaborating three mechanisms — coercive, normative, and mimetic — by which institutional demands are diffused. They also foregrounded the organizational field as an appropriate level of analysis for observing and exploring these processes and effects.
新制度理论的根源是众所周知的(Scott, 2008)。Meyer和Rowan(1977)打破了(当时)将组织视为驾驭经济和技术突发事件的准理性行动者的普遍形象,相反,他们表明组织受到社会文化和认知(制度)因素的影响,这些因素规定和禁止适当的行为。组织遵从制度规定是因为这样做提供了社会认可(合法性)并提高了组织的生存能力。DiMaggio和Powell(1983)通过阐述制度需求扩散的三种机制——强制性、规范性和模仿性,将这些观点向前推进。他们还将组织领域作为观察和探索这些过程和影响的适当分析水平。
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引用次数: 1
Observations on the Concept of Risk and Arab Culture 风险概念与阿拉伯文化观察
Pub Date : 2011-11-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1966713
D. MacGregor, Joseph Godfrey
Western science has developed powerful techniques for modeling and aiding important social decisions. One such technique is risk assessment. The relationship of risk to cultural context is apparent in a number of its facets, including its dependence on values and the (potential) clash between probabilistic versus deterministic views about states of the future. This paper is an examination of the concept of risk using as a lens ideas and concepts about risk that are prevalent in Western culture, and applying these concepts to existing literature (in English) on Arab culture that provides information relevant to risk. The goal of the paper is to amplify our understanding of how Arab culture conceptualizes elements of risk and its assessment as understood and practiced in the West. A background for this synthesis is an overview of the history of risk in Western cultures that traces the evolution of modern ideas about risk as both a mathematical and a social development. Current research on risk in Western literature is used to frame key risk issues in terms of their potential fit (or misfit) with features of Arab culture. The paper concludes with a number of speculative recommendations for research and practice that suggest a cautious approach with regard to applying risk-related principles in Arab cultural contexts that place a relatively high value on traditionalism.
西方科学已经发展出强大的技术来模拟和帮助重要的社会决策。其中一项技术就是风险评估。风险与文化背景的关系在许多方面都很明显,包括其对价值观的依赖以及关于未来状态的概率与确定性观点之间的(潜在)冲突。本文以西方文化中普遍存在的风险概念为视角,对风险概念进行了考察,并将这些概念应用于现有的阿拉伯文化(英语)文献中,这些文献提供了与风险相关的信息。本文的目的是扩大我们对阿拉伯文化如何概念化风险因素及其评估的理解,正如西方所理解和实践的那样。这种综合的背景是对西方文化中风险历史的概述,追溯了现代风险思想的演变,既是数学的,也是社会的发展。目前对西方文学中风险的研究被用来根据它们与阿拉伯文化特征的潜在契合(或不契合)来构建关键风险问题。本文最后对研究和实践提出了一些推测性建议,建议在将风险相关原则应用于传统主义价值相对较高的阿拉伯文化背景方面采取谨慎的做法。
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引用次数: 1
Can External Claims of Randomised Evaluations Used in Developmental Economics Be Considered Knowledge, in Light of the Problem of Induction? 根据归纳问题,发展经济学中使用的随机评估的外部主张可以被视为知识吗?
Pub Date : 2011-11-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2128585
Muthhukumar Palaniyapan
Randomised Evaluations(REs) are being increasingly used in Developmental Economics to understand and predict the impact of specific interventions. However there has been little known epistemological examination of them. Often praise is reserved for the ability of randomised evaluations to generate highly justified internal claims. Samples are randomly allocated into 2 groups. The intervention under study is only applied to one group. The other serves as control, enabling any difference in results to be more closely attributed to the intervention. However, the central problem of induction still undermines the external claims - the predictions - of REs. In this essay I explore: 1)How the epistemic status of RE’s external claims is undermined by the problem of induction. 2)What are the possible solutions or evasions to the problem and how effective and appropriate they are 3)Why in fact the unique methodology of REs allows its external claims to overcome the problem of induction.
在发展经济学中,越来越多地使用随机评估(REs)来理解和预测特定干预措施的影响。然而,对它们的认识论研究却很少。人们往往会称赞随机评估产生高度合理的内部主张的能力。样本随机分为两组。研究中的干预措施只适用于一个群体。另一组作为对照,使结果的任何差异更紧密地归因于干预。然而,归纳法的中心问题仍然削弱了RE的外部主张——预测。在本文中,我探讨了:1)RE的外部主张的认识论地位是如何被归纳法问题削弱的。2)问题的可能解决方案或回避方法是什么?它们是多么有效和适当? 3)事实上,为什么REs的独特方法允许其外部主张克服归纳问题。
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引用次数: 0
Observing Attitudes, Intentions and Expectations (1945-1973) 观察态度、意图和期望(1945-1973)
Pub Date : 2011-11-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1957665
J. Edwards
Although involved in projects of influent institutions like the Cowles Commission, the NBER, and the Michigan Survey Research Center (SRC), George Katona, the “pioneer student and chief collector of consumer anticipations data�? (Tobin, 1959, p. 1) is virtually absent from accounts of the topics he explored, including the study of the consumption function and the development of behavioral economics. This essay argues that such an absence is partly explained by the theoretical underpinnings of Katona’s project, which were incompatible with the economic views of behavior that dominated from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s. It compares alternative survey programs funded by the Federal Reserve during that period, and analyzes the ensuing controversy on the purposes of the observation of attitudes, intentions and expectations. It claims that understanding Katona’s approach “required a real restructuring of thought – a genuine paradigm shift�? (Simon, 1979, p. 12), which gives specific interest to this historical episode.
尽管参与了考尔斯委员会、国家经济研究局和密歇根调查研究中心(SRC)等有影响力的机构的项目,但“学生先驱和消费者预期数据的首席收集者”乔治·卡托纳?(托宾,1959,第1页)在他所探索的主题中几乎是缺席的,包括对消费函数的研究和行为经济学的发展。本文认为,卡托纳项目的理论基础部分解释了这种缺失,这与20世纪40年代中期至70年代中期占主导地位的行为经济学观点是不相容的。它比较了在此期间由美联储资助的其他调查项目,并分析了随后在观察态度、意图和期望的目的方面的争议。它声称,理解卡托纳的方法“需要真正的思想重组——真正的范式转变”。(Simon, 1979,第12页),这给了这一历史事件特别的兴趣。
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引用次数: 6
The Pillars of the Knowledge Based Society 知识社会的支柱
Pub Date : 2011-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1907630
R. Leon
The article is based on a literature review and aims to identify the elements that facilitate the consolidation of a knowledge society and, at the same time, influence the performance of any organization. It had been applied a content analysis to the most relevant books and articles that had appeared in the knowledge management domain until July 2011. This conceptual paper presents the four pillars of the knowledge society – education, research, development and innovation – and reflects the fact that the SECI model may be applied on the national level. In other words, socialization is substituted by education, externalization by research, combination by development and internalization by innovation.
本文基于文献综述,旨在确定促进知识社会巩固的要素,同时影响任何组织的绩效。它对2011年7月之前出现在知识管理领域的最相关的书籍和文章进行了内容分析。这篇概念性论文提出了知识社会的四个支柱——教育、研究、发展和创新——并反映了SECI模型可以应用于国家层面的事实。换句话说,社会化由教育代替,外化由研究代替,结合由发展代替,内化由创新代替。
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引用次数: 0
A Glimpse over Lucio Russo’s Scientific Collapse from First Century BC 公元前一世纪卢西奥·罗素的科学崩溃一瞥
Pub Date : 2011-04-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1804297
Remus Titiriga
The collapse of a whole society is nowadays a much prized topic. The environmental questions, the resource scarcity, the nuclear proliferation, the demographic explosion or some other 'apocalyptic’ dangers tell us that our civilization is mortal.From Gibbon to Tainter, and more recently to Jarred Diamond, the collapse of ancient societies like Roman or Mayan empires was well observed. Nobody ever mentioned a similar collapse of Hellenistic society. Nevertheless, an author, Lucio Russo, discovered an invisible fall down linked to a cultural phenomenon: the science.Russo consider that a scientific revolution took place in Hellenistic times and was forgotten when the science as a method has been abandoned in Antiquity. A final recovery has been realized only 16 centuries later. Russo’s contributions uncovers the birth, the decline and the final fall of Hellenistic science and technology in domains like mathematics, mechanics of solids and fluids, topography and geodesy, optics, astronomy, anatomy. The author found some challenging results such as the discovery of the inverse square law of gravitation by some Hellenistic authors.The paper examine Russo’s supporting hypothesis and researching methodology and may offer subjects for reflection and futures research.
整个社会的崩溃如今是一个备受重视的话题。环境问题、资源短缺、核扩散、人口爆炸或其他一些“世界末日”的危险告诉我们,我们的文明是致命的。从吉本(Gibbon)到泰恩特(Tainter),再到最近的贾里德·戴蒙德(Jarred Diamond),人们很好地观察了罗马或玛雅帝国等古代社会的崩溃。没有人提到过类似的希腊社会崩溃。然而,作家卢西奥·鲁索(Lucio Russo)发现了一种无形的堕落,这种堕落与一种文化现象有关:科学。Russo认为,一场科学革命发生在希腊化时代,当科学作为一种方法在古代被抛弃时,它就被遗忘了。仅在16个世纪后,就实现了最终的恢复。Russo的贡献揭示了希腊科学技术在数学、固体和流体力学、地形和大地测量学、光学、天文学、解剖学等领域的诞生、衰落和最终衰落。作者发现了一些具有挑战性的结果,如一些希腊作家发现的万有引力平方反比定律。本文对Russo的支撑假设和研究方法进行了检验,为反思和未来的研究提供了主题。
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引用次数: 0
The Change in Sraffa’s Philosophical Thinking 论斯拉法哲学思想的变化
Pub Date : 2011-01-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1737900
John B. Davis
The availability of Piero Sraffa’s unpublished manuscripts and correspondence at Trinity College Library, Cambridge, has made it possible to begin to set out a more complete account of Sraffa’s philosophical thinking than previously could be done with only his published materials and the few comments and suggestions made by others about his ideas, especially in connection with their possible impact on Ludwig Wittgenstein’s later thinking. This makes a direct rather than indirect examination of Sraffa’s philosophical thinking possible, and also shifts the focus from his relationship to Wittgenstein to his own thinking per se. I suggest that the previous focus, necessary as it may have been prior to the availability of the unpublished materials, involved some distortion of Sraffa’s thinking by virtue of its framing in terms of Wittgenstein’s concerns as reflected in the concerns of scholars primarily interested in the change in the his thinking. This paper seeks to locate these early convictions in this historical context, and then go on to treat the development of Sraffa’s philosophical thinking as a process beginning from this point, arguing that his thinking underwent one significant shift around 1931, but still retained its early key assumptions. Thus the approach I will take to Sraffa’s philosophical thinking is to explain it as a process of development largely within a single framework defined by his view of how modern science determines the scope and limits upon economic theorizing.
在剑桥大学三一学院图书馆可以找到皮耶罗·斯拉法未发表的手稿和信件,这使得我们有可能开始对斯拉法的哲学思想进行更完整的描述,而不是仅仅依靠他的出版材料和其他人对他的思想提出的一些评论和建议,特别是与他们对路德维希·维特根斯坦后来的思想可能产生的影响有关。这使得直接而非间接地考察斯拉法的哲学思想成为可能,也将焦点从他与维特根斯坦的关系转移到他自己的思想本身。我认为,之前的重点,可能是必要的,因为它可能是在未发表的材料可用性之前,涉及到一些扭曲的斯拉法的思想,因为它的框架是维特根斯坦的关注,反映在主要感兴趣的学者的关注他的思想的变化。本文试图在这一历史背景下定位这些早期信念,然后将斯拉法哲学思想的发展视为一个从这一点开始的过程,认为他的思想在1931年左右经历了一次重大转变,但仍然保留了早期的关键假设。因此,我将对斯拉法的哲学思想采取的方法是,将其解释为一个主要在单一框架内的发展过程,这个框架是由他关于现代科学如何决定经济理论化的范围和限制的观点所定义的。
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引用次数: 32
Learning to Live Responsibly with Bipolar Illness 学会与双相情感障碍负责任地生活
Pub Date : 2011-01-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1737705
C. Herrman
The so-called ‘symptoms’ of bipolar illness are better conceived as medleys and collages of traits widely disseminated in the gene pool, the vast majority of which are favorable in nearly every way until aggregated with others to produce actual symptoms that lead to disruption of life. The argument is 1) that drugs enable the bipolar individual to deal with traits as such and thus confront this disease/disorder from a soft-wiring perspective in a manner enabling a productive existence both personally and socially, and 2) bipolar individuals have numerous positive traits that can be utilized both to steward offices as well as contain or otherwise restrain negative traits. Techniques are offered together with theoretical insights to help bipolar sufferers come to possess a responsible attitude by which to steward their natural talents and consider the needs of others as integral to their self-mastery and health.
双相情感障碍的所谓“症状”最好被理解为在基因库中广泛传播的特征的混合和拼贴,其中绝大多数在几乎所有方面都是有利的,直到与其他特征聚集在一起,产生导致生活中断的实际症状。论点是1)药物使双相情感障碍患者能够处理这些特征,从而从软连接的角度以一种使个人和社会都富有成效的方式面对这种疾病/障碍,2)双相情感障碍患者有许多积极的特征,既可以用来管理办公室,也可以用来包含或以其他方式抑制消极的特征。技术与理论见解一起提供,以帮助双相情感障碍患者拥有一种负责任的态度,通过这种态度来管理他们的天赋,并将他人的需求视为他们自我控制和健康的组成部分。
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引用次数: 0
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