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Installed Base Forecast for Final Ordering of Automobile Service Parts 汽车维修零件最终订货的安装基数预测
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2015-03-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2015.26.1.2
Y. Chou, Yujang Scott Hsu, Hongji Lin
Service part inventory models can be distinguished by their intended application on sin-gle part/machine/facility, or on servicing an installed base of equipment. Besides typical uncertainties in part failure, the install base problem is compounded with the heterogeneity of the part age in equipment life cycle and scarcity of data toward the end of life phase. This paper presents an empirical study of the final order problem after the sale of a product is discontinued but there is an installed base to be serviced. Two fundamental issues are addressed: (1) to build forecast models on sales data directly or on failure probability indi-rectly, and (2) to use few but recent data or many but dated data. This paper first shows that regression on derived failure probabilities yields more accurate forecasts than regression on part sales data. The effect of data age and quantity on forecast is next investigated. The recency of historical data is shown to be more informative than the quantity of input data in demand forecast. Finally, an installed-base forecast model is constructed which show an improvement of 16.0% in absolute forecast errors than an existing method used in practice by a case study firm.
维修零件库存模型可以根据其在单个零件/机器/设施上的预期应用或在维修已安装的设备基础上的应用来区分。除了部件故障的典型不确定性外,安装基础问题还与设备生命周期中部件寿命的异质性和生命周期末期数据的稀缺性相结合。本文提出了一个实证研究的产品销售停止后的最终订单问题,但有一个安装基础的服务。解决了两个基本问题:(1)直接基于销售数据或间接基于失败概率建立预测模型;(2)使用很少但最近的数据或使用很多但过时的数据。本文首先表明,对导出的失效概率的回归比对零件销售数据的回归产生更准确的预测。研究了数据年代和数据量对预测的影响。在需求预测中,历史数据的近代性比输入数据的数量更能提供信息。最后,建立了一个基于安装的预测模型,该模型的绝对预测误差比实例研究公司使用的现有方法提高了16.0%。
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引用次数: 5
Prediciton of Student Academic Performance Using an ANFIS Approach 使用ANFIS方法预测学生学习成绩
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.4.6
Jeng-Fung Chen, Quang Hung Do
Admission is one of the key administrative branches in a university. Regarding the admission process, the issue of whether a candidate is suitable for an academic program is of importance. This raises the need to propose a model that predicts the student’s future academic performance. This study presents an approach to the prediction of student academic performance based on the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). We have used previous exam results as input variables, and then predicted the students’ expected performances. Due to a large number of input variables, only the most influential ones affecting student academic performance were selected. We also identified the most influential input variables by analyzing their influence on expected academic performance. The ANFIS model was then parameterized using these input variables to predict student performance. The results showed that the proposed model achieved a high reliability. These results were also compared with those obtained from the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approaches. The comparative analysis indicated that the proposed approach performed better than the others. It is expected that this work may be used as a tool to support student admission procedures.
招生办是高校行政管理的重要部门之一。关于录取过程,候选人是否适合学术课程的问题很重要。这就需要提出一种预测学生未来学业表现的模型。本研究提出一种基于自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)的学生学习成绩预测方法。我们使用以前的考试成绩作为输入变量,然后预测学生的预期成绩。由于输入变量较多,所以只选取对学生学习成绩影响最大的变量。我们还通过分析其对预期学习成绩的影响,确定了最具影响力的输入变量。然后使用这些输入变量对ANFIS模型进行参数化,以预测学生的表现。结果表明,该模型具有较高的可靠性。这些结果还与多元线性回归(MLR)和人工神经网络(ANN)方法的结果进行了比较。对比分析表明,该方法的性能优于其他方法。预计这项工作可能会被用作支持学生入学程序的工具。
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引用次数: 1
Determinants of Out-of-pocket Health Payments with Policy Effects 自费医疗支付与政策影响的决定因素
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.4.4
Bing Xu, Yi-Na Li, Liheng Qi
This paper establishes a data-driven framework with nonparametric models with application of scale and allocation effects to study the determinants of out-of-pocket health payments (OOP) in China. The determinants of out-of-pocket health payments are the proportions of medical income, drug income to total hospital revenue, financial aid, number of hospital staff, actual rate of bed usage, return on assets, health care coverage, economic development level, and per capita disposable income. The operation mechanisms of OOP determinants are more different with the three linear factors than with the nonlinear factors. The transformation between linear and nonlinear roles has turned to more complicated since 2008. The scale effect of crowding-in is mainly witnessed via linear mechanism, while the negative allocation effect is mainly observed mainly through a nonlinear mechanism. Thus, the proportion of OOP can be effectively reduced with the comprehensive consideration of return on assets, healthcare coverage, economic development level, and per capita disposable income.
本文建立了一个数据驱动的非参数模型框架,应用规模效应和配置效应研究了中国自费医疗支付的决定因素。自费医疗费用的决定因素是医疗收入、药品收入占医院总收入的比例、财政援助、医院工作人员人数、实际床位数使用率、资产回报率、医疗保健覆盖率、经济发展水平和人均可支配收入。三种线性因素对面向对象决策的作用机制比非线性因素对面向对象决策的作用机制差异更大。自2008年以来,线性角色与非线性角色之间的转换变得更加复杂。挤入的规模效应主要通过线性机制来体现,而负配置效应主要通过非线性机制来体现。因此,综合考虑资产收益率、医疗覆盖率、经济发展水平和人均可支配收入等因素,可以有效降低面向对象支出的比例。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Control of Service Parameter for a Perishable Inventory System with Service Facility, Postponed Demands and Finite Waiting Hall 具有服务设施、延迟需求和有限等待大厅的易腐库存系统服务参数的最优控制
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.4.5
J. Jenifer, N. Sangeetha, B. Sivakumar
This paper deals with the problem of optimally control service rates for a continuous review (s, S) inventory system with a service facility consisting of finite buffer(waiting hall) and a single server. The customers arrive according to a Poisson process. The customer’s demand is satisfied after an exponential service time. An arriving customer, who finds the buffer is full, enters into the pool of finite size or leaves the system according to a Bernoulli trial. The replenishment time of the order is distributed as exponential. The life time of each item in the inventory is assumed to be exponential distribution. Here we determine the service rates to be employed at each instant of time so that the long-run total expected cost rate is minimized. The problem is modelled as a semi-Markov decision problem. The stationary optimal policy is computed using linear programming algorithm and the results are illustrated numerically.
本文研究了服务设施由有限缓冲区(等待大厅)和单服务器组成的连续评审(s, s)库存系统的最优服务率控制问题。客户按照泊松过程到达。在指数服务时间后,满足客户的需求。根据伯努利试验,到达的顾客发现缓冲区已满,进入有限大小的池或离开系统。订单的补货时间呈指数分布。假定库存中每件商品的寿命都是指数分布。在这里,我们确定在每个时刻要使用的服务费率,以便使长期总预期成本率最小化。该问题被建模为一个半马尔可夫决策问题。用线性规划算法计算了平稳最优策略,并对结果进行了数值说明。
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引用次数: 3
Designing Bayesian Sampling Plans for Exponential Distributions with Type-II Progressive Hybrid Censoring 一类渐进式混合滤波的指数分布贝叶斯抽样方案设计
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.4.1
T. Liang
This article studies the problem of designing Bayesian sampling plans with type-II progressive hybrid censored samples. Algorithms A and B for deriving Bayesian sampling plans are proposed. Comparison between the performances of the proposed sampling plans with the sampling plans of Lin and Huang is made. The numerical results indicate that the proposed sampling plans perform much better than the sampling plans of Lin and Huang in terms of their associated Bayes risks.
研究了一类渐进混合截尾样本的贝叶斯抽样方案设计问题。提出了贝叶斯抽样方案的算法A和算法B。将所提出的抽样方案与Lin和Huang的抽样方案的性能进行了比较。数值结果表明,所提出的抽样方案在关联贝叶斯风险方面的表现明显优于Lin和Huang的抽样方案。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Ordering Policy for an Economic Order Quantity Model with Inspection Errors and Inspection Improvement Investment 考虑检验误差和检验改进投资的经济订货量模型的最优订购策略
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.4.3
L. Ouyang, Chia-Hsien Su, Chia-Huei Ho, Chih-te Yang
The rise of consumer rights has caused businesses to focus increasingly on product quality. The inability of businesses to identify defective items before selling them results in higher return costs, decreased sales revenue, damaged reputations, and decreased competitiveness. This study examines the economic order quantity (EOQ) model in which the retailer discovers defective goods among received products. Although retailers conduct quality inspections, the inspection process is imperfect. We assume that Type I and Type II inspection errors occur during product quality inspection and that the market demand rate is sensitive to Type II inspection errors. To improve inspection, the retailer invests capital to decrease Type II inspection errors. This study investigates the optimal order quantity and the power of the test to maximize total profit per unit time. Mathematical analysis is used to show the optimal solution exists. An algorithm is then developed to calculate the optimal solution. Finally, numerical examples demonstrate the solution process and sensitivity analysis with respect to major parameters is carried out.
消费者权益的提升已促使企业越来越关注产品质量。企业无法在销售前识别出有缺陷的产品,导致退货成本增加,销售收入减少,声誉受损,竞争力下降。本文研究了零售商在收到的产品中发现次品的经济订货量模型。虽然零售商进行质量检查,但检查过程并不完善。我们假设在产品质量检验过程中出现第一类和第二类检验错误,并且市场需求率对第二类检验错误敏感。为了改进检验,零售商投入资金来减少第二类检验错误。本研究探讨了最优订货量和测试对单位时间内总利润最大化的作用。通过数学分析证明了最优解的存在性。然后开发了一种算法来计算最优解。最后通过数值算例说明了求解过程,并对主要参数进行了敏感性分析。
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引用次数: 2
An Inventory Model for Increasing Demand with Probabilistic Deterioration, Permissible Delay and Partial Backlogging 具有概率退化、允许延迟和部分积压的需求增长库存模型
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.4.2
K. F. M. Latha, R. Uthayakumar
In this paper an inventory model for deteriorating items with time dependent quadratic demand and permissible delay in payments is developed. Shortages are allowed and are partially backlogged. An optimal policy that minimizes the total cost is developed. The objective of this study is to consider three different types of continuous probabilistic deterio-ration functions and to find the associated total cost. To illustrate the proposed model some numerical examples are given. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solutions with respect to major parameters are carried out and comparison is made between the three models.
本文建立了具有二次需求和允许付款延迟的变质物品库存模型。短缺是允许的,并且部分积压。提出了使总成本最小的最优策略。本研究的目的是考虑三种不同类型的连续概率退化函数,并找出相关的总成本。为了说明所提出的模型,给出了一些数值算例。对最优解对主要参数的敏感性进行了分析,并对三种模型进行了比较。
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引用次数: 2
Cost/Benefit Model Development of Service Management with Profit Design 基于利润设计的服务管理成本/效益模型开发
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.3.5
Hsu-Hua Lee
In this research, the cost/benefit model will be developed to integrate service management with profit design on relevant processes. The profit should be properly allocated on service conformance and service improvement by the investments in service management and using the approach of profit design. The customer perception and customer expectation can be used to quantify the service level after considering each service dimension. The service demand will be then increasingly affected by the improvement in service level. The investment in service level can be also considered and relevant cost and benefit are obtained. The model can be used for the decision makers to predict the cost/benefit of service management with profit design before the investment.
本研究将建立成本效益模型,整合服务管理与相关流程的利润设计。通过对服务管理的投资,运用利润设计的方法,将利润合理地分配到服务的一致性和服务的改进上。在考虑了各个服务维度后,顾客感知和顾客期望可以用来量化服务水平。随着服务水平的提高,服务需求将越来越受到影响。还可以考虑在服务水平上的投入,从而获得相应的成本和效益。该模型可用于决策者在投资前进行利润设计服务管理的成本/收益预测。
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引用次数: 0
The Monitoring Effect of Information Disclosure: Institutional and Retail Investors 信息披露的监督效应:机构投资者与散户投资者
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.3.1
Cheng-li Huang, Wei-ju Chen, Kuo-Chen Lu
Huang and Zhang [15] provide evidence that enhanced information disclosure helps reduce the agency cost from the U.S.A. stock market that is dominated by institutional investors. This study attempts to explore if the supervision and disciplinary effect of capital market still exists in Taiwan's stock market that is dominated by retail investors. We use the empirical model of Huang and Zhang [15] to verify whether cash holdings are valued differently de- pending on information disclosure levels. The empirical results show that the cash holdings of companies with better disclosure quality are not valued significantly higher than those of companies with poorer disclosure quality. This finding is inconsistent with the evidence of Huang and Zhang [15] from an institutional investor dominated stock market. This study further divides the sample into two sub-samples, one consisting of firms with high institutional trading percentage and the other consisting of firms with low institutional trading percentage, to examine the monitoring effect of institutional and retail investors. Results indicate that for firms with a higher institutional trading percentage, the relation between the product of ratio of change in cash and disclosure level and abnormal returns is significantly positive; for firms with a lower institutional trading percentage, the relation is not significant. This explains the external monitoring in the capital market is mainly provided by institutional investors, and the effect of enhanced disclosure on corporate governance is more pronounced in the stock market dominated by institutional investors.
Huang和Zhang[15]提供的证据表明,加强信息披露有助于降低机构投资者主导的美国股票市场的代理成本。本研究试图探讨在以散户为主的台湾股市中,资本市场的监管与规训效果是否依然存在。我们使用Huang和Zhang的实证模型来验证现金持有量是否因信息披露水平的不同而有不同的价值。实证结果表明,信息披露质量较好的公司的现金持有量价值并不显著高于信息披露质量较差的公司。这一发现与Huang和Zhang从机构投资者主导的股票市场得到的证据不一致。本研究进一步将样本分为两个子样本,一个由高机构交易比例的公司组成,另一个由低机构交易比例的公司组成,以检验机构投资者和散户投资者的监测效果。结果表明:对于机构交易比例较高的公司,现金变化率与披露水平的乘积与异常收益呈显著正相关;对于机构交易比例较低的公司,这种关系不显著。这就解释了资本市场的外部监督主要是由机构投资者提供的,在机构投资者主导的股票市场中,加强信息披露对公司治理的影响更为明显。
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引用次数: 1
Advance Sales System with Price-Dependent Demand and an Appreciation Period under Trade Credit 贸易信贷下具有价格依赖需求和增值期的预售制度
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.3.4
M. Cheng, L. Ouyang
With globalization, companies are facing fierce competition. Offering an appreciation period has become a commonly adopted method by retailers to sustain competitive advantage. During the appreciation period, customers can request to return products for any reason. In addition, retailers provide advance sales to attract additional customers. The supplier usually provides the retailer with a trade credit, which they can use as a type of price reduction to attract additional customers. Price is viewed as an important vehicle to sell products and enhance revenues. Therefore, in this article, we establish an inventory model with price-dependent demand for a retailer who simultaneously receives trade credit from its supplier, and offers advance sales and an appreciation period to its customers. We first establish a proper model and then provide an easy-to-use method to obtain an ordering policy for the retailer to achieve its maximum total profit. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the solution procedure.
随着全球化,公司面临着激烈的竞争。提供一个升值期已经成为零售商保持竞争优势的常用方法。在赞赏期内,客户可以以任何理由要求退货。此外,零售商提供提前销售,以吸引更多的顾客。供应商通常向零售商提供贸易信用,零售商可以将其作为一种降价来吸引更多的顾客。价格被视为销售产品和增加收入的重要手段。因此,在本文中,我们建立了一个具有价格依赖需求的零售商库存模型,该零售商同时从其供应商那里获得贸易信用,并向其客户提供提前销售和增值期。首先建立合适的模型,然后给出一种简单易用的方法来求出零售商总利润最大化的订货策略。最后,通过数值算例说明了求解过程。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
International Journal of Information and Management Sciences
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