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Determinants of Traffic Fatalities in Taiwan 台湾交通死亡的决定因素
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.3.3
G. Vorel, S. Kao, C. H. Wu, C. Wu
Fatalities are the most costly item of road accidents, particularly due to the loss of potential human output. This paper is based on a modified Peltzman model from 1975 and it estimates coefficients of legal variables (alcohol law and helmet law, both defined as the highest monetary fine for violating the respective law in real terms) and socioeconomic variables (real disposable income per capital, real price of alcohol, real price of fuel, unemployment rate, number of vehicles, and secular trend) against monthly numbers of fatalities in 1991- 2012 time period by using time series OLS multiple regression analysis. The result reveals that helmet law together with unemployment rate and secular trend have a significantly reducing effect whereas real disposable income and number of vehicles have a significantly increasing effect on fatalities. Particular emphasis was laid on explaining the reducing impact of helmet law. Implications and suggestions are also addressed.
死亡是道路交通事故中最昂贵的一项,特别是由于潜在的人力产出损失。本文基于1975年修正的Peltzman模型,它估计了法律变量(酒精法和头盔法,两者都定义为实际违反各自法律的最高罚款)和社会经济变量(人均实际可支配收入,酒精的实际价格,燃料的实际价格,失业率,车辆数量,使用时间序列OLS多元回归分析,对比1991- 2012年期间的每月死亡人数。结果表明,头盔法、失业率和长期趋势对死亡人数的影响显著降低,而实际可支配收入和车辆数量对死亡人数的影响显著增加。特别强调了解释头盔法的减少影响。还讨论了影响和建议。
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引用次数: 1
Development of a Risk Management Mechanism for Enterprise Resource Planning Systems based on Work System Method 基于工作系统方法的企业资源规划系统风险管理机制研究
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.3.2
She-I Chang, Hsing-Jung Li, Su-Han Cheng, Wan-Yun Lai
The study collects 24 risk management-relevant research papers published between 2000 and 2010 to elicit significant risk factors in an attempt to develop a risk management mechanism for enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. The study reports on its findings on 49 risk factors by using grounded theory and conducting expert questionnaires. The identified factors are further classified into nine categories based on work system method, and a risk management mechanism is developed thereafter. Finally, two cases are selected to examine the feasibility of the mechanism. The developed mechanism is found to be a practical and proper ERP system risk management tool that can assist enterprises in identifying, analyzing, assessing, and responding to potential risks.
本研究收集了2000 - 2010年间发表的24篇与风险管理相关的研究论文,提炼出重要的风险因素,试图建立企业资源规划(ERP)系统的风险管理机制。本研究采用扎根理论并进行专家问卷调查的方法,报告了其对49个风险因素的调查结果。根据工作系统法将已识别的因素进一步划分为9类,并建立风险管理机制。最后,选取两个案例验证了该机制的可行性。该机制是一种实用、合适的ERP系统风险管理工具,可以帮助企业识别、分析、评估和应对潜在风险。
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引用次数: 0
A Predictive Model of Customer Monetary Spending Based on Geometric Purchase Time and Lognormal Monetary Model 基于几何购买时间和对数正态货币模型的顾客货币支出预测模型
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-07-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.2.6
Hui-Hsin Huang
The monetary amount of customers' purchases and interpurchase time are two related and important variables in the realm of business marketing. Yet most research has formulated them independently in prediction models. This paper proposes a prediction model of customer monetary spending using information on interpurchase time. Unlike previous research, we consider interpurchase time according to geometric distribution. Moreover, our monetary prediction model combines interpurchase time and an underlying (basic unit) monetary amount which is assumed as log normal distribution. This study collects empirical data to validate the proposed model and estimate its parameters. We also compare our results with those of interpurchase time following exponential distribution. The results show that our proposed model performances better at monetary forecasting than the exponential model does.
在企业营销领域中,顾客购买的货币量和相互购买的时间是两个相关而重要的变量。然而,大多数研究都在预测模型中独立地表述了它们。本文提出了一种基于互购时间信息的顾客货币消费预测模型。与以往的研究不同,我们根据几何分布来考虑互购时间。此外,我们的货币预测模型结合了购买时间和潜在的(基本单位)货币数量,假设为对数正态分布。本研究收集实证数据来验证所提出的模型并估计其参数。并与指数分布下的互购时间进行了比较。结果表明,该模型在货币预测方面优于指数模型。
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引用次数: 2
Grey Support Vector Regression Model with Applications to China Tourists Forecasting in Taiwan 灰色支持向量回归模型在台湾大陆游客预测中的应用
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-07-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.2.3
Ruey-Chyn Tsaur, S. Chan
Support vector regression (SVR) has been successful in function approximation for forecasting analysis based on the idea of structural risk minimization. SVR has perfect forecasting performance by employing in large sample size for training and solving its parameters, where the SVR is difficult to be applied in limited time series data with some fluctuated points; in contrast, grey model has better forecasting performance in limited time series data. In order to cope with this problem, we use both of the advantages of support vector regression model and grey theory to construct a new grey support vector regression (GSVR) model for solving limited data with some fluctuations. Finally, we demonstrate an application for planning China tourism demand for improving the tourism infrastructure in Taiwan with a better forecasting performance.
基于结构风险最小化思想的支持向量回归(SVR)在预测分析中的函数逼近方面取得了成功。SVR采用大样本量进行训练并求解其参数,具有较好的预测性能,但对于有波动点的有限时间序列数据难以应用;相比之下,灰色模型在有限时间序列数据中具有更好的预测性能。为了解决这一问题,我们利用支持向量回归模型和灰色理论的优点,构建了一种新的灰色支持向量回归(GSVR)模型,用于求解有限数据和一些波动。最后,本研究以中国大陆旅游需求规划为例,对改善台湾旅游基础设施的预测效果较好。
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引用次数: 2
Storytelling and Brand Identity in Cultural Digital Archives Industry 文化数字档案产业的故事叙述与品牌认同
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-07-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.2.5
Tser-yieth Chen, Tsai-Lien Yeh, Chia-Hui Chu
This study identifies a causal relationship among storytelling marketing strategies, consumer identity, and consumer intentions toward cultural and creative brands that use digital archives for marketing Chinese calligraphy, ancient paintings and literature. We show that storytelling can affect culture identity through event marketing. Brand identity and culture identity exert positive cultural influences on consumer brand opinions. Thus, producers or marketers of cultural brands could improve consumer-brand relationships by promoting cultural stories at exhibitions associated with their brands. To attract visitors, they could arouse cultural resonance by sharing the creative ideas that inspired their unique products. Our proposed approach could impress visitors and increase their awareness of the refined products offered by cultural brands.
本研究确定了故事营销策略、消费者认同和消费者对使用数字档案营销中国书法、古画和文学的文化创意品牌的意向之间的因果关系。我们表明,讲故事可以通过事件营销影响文化认同。品牌认同和文化认同对消费者品牌意见有正向的文化影响。因此,文化品牌的生产者或营销商可以通过在与其品牌相关的展览中推广文化故事来改善消费者与品牌的关系。为了吸引参观者,他们可以通过分享激发他们独特产品的创意来引起文化共鸣。我们提出的方法可以打动游客,提高他们对文化品牌所提供的精致产品的认识。
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引用次数: 1
A New Mathematical Logistic Model and Its Applications 一种新的数理逻辑模型及其应用
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-07-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.2.1
H. Pham, David H. Pham
We present a new 4-parameter logistic growth model where the rate of change of quantity function is directly proportional to its remaining quantity for growth by a time-dependent logistic function per quantity per unit time. The model can be used to determine the expected number of quantities at time t. Several real world applications are discussed to illustrate the usefulness of the new model including the earthquake occurrence events, the student population growth, and the software modeling. Examples are included to illustrate the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model and existing logistic growth models based on real data sets collected from software applications, earthquake events in the US, and a high school senior class. Three goodness-of-fit test criteria and a recent normalized criteria distance method are used to illustrate the model comparisons. The results show that the proposed model fit significantly better than other existing growth models.
我们提出了一个新的四参数logistic增长模型,其中数量函数的变化率与单位时间内每个数量的剩余数量成正比。该模型可用于确定时间t的预期数量。讨论了几个实际应用,以说明新模型的有用性,包括地震发生事件,学生人数增长和软件建模。举例说明拟合优度提出的模型和现有的逻辑增长模型基于实际数据集收集的软件应用程序,地震事件在美国,和一个高中毕业班。三个拟合优度检验标准和最近的归一化标准距离法用于说明模型比较。结果表明,该模型的拟合效果明显优于已有的增长模型。
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引用次数: 13
Scheduling with Multiple Common Due Windows Assignment and General Position-Dependent and Resource-Dependent Processing Times 具有多个公共到期窗口分配和一般位置依赖和资源依赖处理时间的调度
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-07-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.2.2
Suh-Jenq Yang, Chien-Jung Lai
In this paper we consider multiple common due windows assignment and single-machine scheduling problems with general position-dependent and resource-dependent processing times simultaneously. Multiple common due windows, an extension of single common due window, allow a job to fit one from multiple common due windows. We assume that the number of common due windows to be assigned to the jobs is given. Two resource allocation models are examined, namely the linear resource consumption model and the convex re-source consumption model. The actual processing time of a job is a function of its scheduled position in a sequence and its resource allocation. We aim to determine jointly the optimal common due window positions and sizes, the set of jobs assigned to each common due window, the optimal resource allocations, and the optimal schedule for minimizing an objective function which includes earliness, tardiness, common due windows assignment, makespan, and resource consumption costs. We provide some properties of the optimal schedule for the problem and propose polynomial time algorithms for all the problems considered.
本文考虑了同时具有一般位置依赖和资源依赖处理时间的多个常见到期窗口分配和单机调度问题。多个公共到期窗口是单个公共到期窗口的扩展,允许作业从多个公共到期窗口中适配一个。我们假设分配给作业的公共到期窗口的数量是给定的。考察了两种资源配置模型,即线性资源消耗模型和凸型资源消耗模型。作业的实际处理时间是其在序列中的计划位置及其资源分配的函数。我们的目标是共同确定最优公共到期窗口的位置和大小,分配给每个公共到期窗口的作业集,最优资源分配,以及最小化目标函数的最优进度,该目标函数包括提前,延迟,公共到期窗口分配,完工时间和资源消耗成本。我们给出了该问题的最优调度的一些性质,并对所考虑的所有问题提出了多项式时间算法。
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引用次数: 1
A Regional Competition Analysis of Medical Tourism Industry-an Example of Taiwan 医疗旅游业的区域竞争分析——以台湾为例
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-07-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.2.4
Shofang Chang, C. Pu, Ping-Jung Hsieh
This study explores a process that conducts regional competition analysis of medical tourism. It conducts a Modified Delphi expert consensus process and analytic network process (ANP) to explore the associations and weights of the factors in the evaluation model. The results demonstrate that the government factors, including government support and the legal system, are the most important competitive factors of the medical tourism industry. High-ranking sub-criteria, including the marketing strategy and physician training systems, are related to the government factor. Short-term treatment medical programs, such as cosmetic surgery and dentistry, are priorities for development. A friendly legal system and government-led marketing strategies are strongly suggested for development in Taiwan. Superior healthcare quality and a well-established and a physician training system are Taiwans main competitive advantages compared with the rest of Asia. The model provides an objective view for evaluating the importance of competitive factors for developing medical tourism and builds a framework to analyze the regional competition of medical tourism.
本研究探讨医疗旅游区域竞争分析的过程。采用改进的德尔菲专家共识过程和分析网络过程(ANP)来探索评价模型中各因素的关联关系和权重。结果表明,政府支持和法律制度是医疗旅游产业最重要的竞争因素。排名靠前的子标准,包括营销策略和医师培训体系,与政府因素有关。短期治疗医疗项目,如整容手术和牙科,是发展的重点。友好的法律制度和政府主导的营销策略是在台湾发展的强烈建议。卓越的医疗质量和完善的医师培训体系是台湾相对于亚洲其他地区的主要竞争优势。该模型为评价竞争因素对医疗旅游发展的重要性提供了客观视角,构建了医疗旅游区域竞争分析框架。
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引用次数: 4
The Pricing of a Supply Contract under Uncertainty with Long-Range Dependence 具有长期依赖的不确定供给合同的定价
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-03-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.1.3
Po-yuan Chen, Horng-Jinh Chang
This paper aims to address a contracting problem between upstream and downstream agents in a supply chain using a stochastic demand process with autocorrelation properties. For example, the quarterly global sales volumes of Apple's iPhone are highly autocorrelated over time although the time lag is as long as 10 quarters. Based on such empirical evidence, an autocorrelated demand process referred to as fractional Brownian motion is adopted in this paper. It is assumed that there are two echelons in the supply chain: business and consumer markets. The information flows fall into four categories: demand flow, marketing info flow, uncertainty flow, and premium charge flow. The downstream agent can transfer demand uncertainty to the upstream firm (uncertainty flow) by signing a supply contract (contracting agent). The demand in the consumer market is assumed to follow a fractional Brownian motion. Based on the fractional Ito formula for the real option model, the result demonstrates that the real option value can be an increasing or decreasing function of the degree of autocorrelation in which the real option value reaches its maximum at the critical point. As a consequence, the trading price determined in the supply contract without considering the autocorrelation of demand could be significantly undervalued or overvalued. In other words, to ensure a fair game in a contracting activity, the upstream agent should charge more for the trading price depending on the degree of autocorrelation in demand.
本文旨在利用具有自相关性质的随机需求过程来解决供应链上下游代理之间的契约问题。例如,随着时间的推移,苹果iPhone的季度全球销量高度自相关,尽管时滞长达10个季度。基于这些经验证据,本文采用了一种自相关需求过程,称为分数布朗运动。假设供应链中有两个梯队:商业市场和消费者市场。信息流分为四类:需求流、营销信息流、不确定性流和溢价收费流。下游代理可以通过签订供给合同(承包代理)将需求不确定性传递给上游企业(不确定性流)。假定消费市场的需求遵循分数布朗运动。基于实物期权模型的分数阶Ito公式,结果表明,实物期权价值可以是自相关程度的增减函数,其中实物期权价值在临界点处达到最大值。因此,在不考虑需求自相关的情况下,供应合同中确定的交易价格可能被严重低估或高估。换句话说,为了确保合同活动中的公平竞争,上游代理应该根据需求的自相关程度对交易价格收取更高的费用。
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引用次数: 0
Business Air Travelers Willingness to Pay for In-flight Wireless Internet Service: An Exploratory Study 商务航空旅客为机上无线互联网服务付费的意愿:一项探索性研究
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2014-03-01 DOI: 10.6186/IJIMS.2014.25.1.5
Jin-Long Lu, Wen-Tai Lai
This study investigated business air travelers' willingness to pay (WTP) for in-flight wire-less Internet service (WIS) and when WTP is positive or conditional, the payment amount. We used the contingent valuation method to elicit the WTP from Taiwanese business air passengers and employed an independent two-equation model to determine the potential factors. Raw data analysis indicated that 40% of the respondents were willing to pay for in-flight WIS. Among the respondents who were willing to pay, the maximal and minimal stated WTP for unlimited use of in-flight WIS were US$48 and US$6, respectively. The conditional mean WTP was approximately US$13. The estimated model also suggested that several variables determined the probability of a positive WTP: personal monthly income, spending greater than one hour on WIS at the airport, perceptions regarding the necessity of onboard WIS, and flight length.
本研究调查商务航空旅客对机上无线上网服务的付费意愿(WTP),以及当WTP为正数或有条件时的付费金额。本研究以条件评估法为研究对象,探讨台湾商务航空旅客的WTP,并以独立的二方程模型来确定潜在因素。原始数据分析表明,40%的受访者愿意为机上WIS付费。在愿意付费的受访者中,无限使用机上WIS的最高和最低WTP分别为48美元和6美元。条件平均WTP约为13美元。估计模型还表明,有几个变量决定了WTP为正的可能性:个人月收入、在机场使用WIS的时间超过1小时、对机上WIS必要性的看法以及飞行长度。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Information and Management Sciences
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