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Stakeholder-accountability model for artificial intelligence projects 人工智能项目的利益相关者-责任模型
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22367/jem.2022.44.18
G. Miller
Abstract Aim/purpose – This research presents a conceptual stakeholder accountability model for mapping the project actors to the conduct for which they should be held accountable in artificial intelligence (AI) projects. AI projects differ from other projects in important ways, including in their capacity to inflict harm and impact human and civil rights on a global scale. The in-project decisions are high stakes, and it is critical who decides the system’s features. Even well-designed AI systems can be deployed in ways that harm individuals, local communities, and society. Design/methodology/approach – The present study uses a systematic literature review, accountability theory, and AI success factors to elaborate on the relationships between AI project actors and stakeholders. The literature review follows the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) statement process. Bovens’ accountability model and AI success factors are employed as a basis for the coding framework in the thematic analysis. The study uses a web-based survey to collect data from respondents in the United States and Germany employing statistical analysis to assess public opinion on AI fairness, sustainability, and accountability. Findings – The AI stakeholder accountability model specifies the complex relationships between 16 actors and 22 stakeholder forums using 78 AI success factors to define the conduct and the obligations and consequences that characterize those relationships. The survey analysis suggests that more than 80% of the public thinks AI development should be fair and sustainable, and it sees the government and development organizations as most accountable in this regard. There are some differences between the United States and Germany regarding fairness, sustainability, and accountability. Research implications/limitations – The results should benefit project managers and project sponsors in stakeholder identification and resource assignment. The definitions offer policy advisors insights for updating AI governance practices. The model presented here is conceptual and has not been validated using real-world projects. Originality/value/contribution – The study adds context-specific information on AI to the project management literature. It defines project actors as moral agents and provides a model for mapping the accountability of project actors to stakeholder expectations and system impacts.
摘要目的/目的-本研究提出了一个概念性利益相关者问责模型,用于将项目参与者映射到他们应该在人工智能(AI)项目中负责的行为。人工智能项目在许多重要方面不同于其他项目,包括它们在全球范围内造成伤害和影响人权和公民权利的能力。项目内的决策是高风险的,谁来决定系统的特性是至关重要的。即使是精心设计的人工智能系统,也可能以伤害个人、当地社区和社会的方式部署。设计/方法论/方法——本研究使用系统的文献综述、问责理论和人工智能成功因素来阐述人工智能项目参与者和利益相关者之间的关系。文献综述遵循系统评价和荟萃分析(PRISMA)声明过程的首选报告项目。主题分析采用Bovens的问责模型和人工智能成功因素作为编码框架的基础。该研究采用基于网络的调查方式,从美国和德国的受访者那里收集数据,并采用统计分析来评估公众对人工智能公平性、可持续性和问责制的看法。人工智能利益相关者问责模型使用78个人工智能成功因素来定义这些关系的行为、义务和后果,具体说明了16个行动者和22个利益相关者论坛之间的复杂关系。调查分析表明,超过80%的公众认为人工智能的发展应该是公平和可持续的,并认为政府和发展组织在这方面最负责任。美国和德国在公平、可持续性和问责制方面存在一些差异。研究意义/局限性——研究结果应有利于项目经理和项目发起人识别利益相关者和资源分配。这些定义为政策顾问提供了更新人工智能治理实践的见解。这里提出的模型是概念性的,尚未使用实际项目进行验证。原创性/价值/贡献——该研究在项目管理文献中添加了有关人工智能的特定环境信息。它将项目行为者定义为道德行为者,并提供了一个将项目行为者的责任映射到涉众期望和系统影响的模型。
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引用次数: 2
Health insurance and Out-of-Pocket health care expenditure in Kenya 肯尼亚的医疗保险和自付医疗费用
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22367/jem.2022.44.03
Urbanus Kioko Kamba
Abstract Aim/purpose – The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of health insurance on Out-of-Pocket (OOP) health care expenditure in Kenya. It is informed by persistence in the challenges of access and utilization of quality and affordable health care services. Previously, researchers have estimated the effects of different forms of health care financing on its demand and shown that affordability not only enhances access and use of health services but also cushions people against adverse financial risks associated with catastrophic health care spending. Design/methodology/approach – The study used the Kenya Household Health Expenditure and Utilization Survey (KHHEUS) 2013 data, and employed the two-part model estimation approach. The sample size considered in the estimation was 6,961 with the unit of analysis being an individual household member. Findings – The overall results of this study showed that having a health insurance cover did not exclude one from using OOP payments. However, the probability of such spending was low for people with insurance compared to those without insurance. Additionally, if any cash was paid for any health care service, having insurance did not have a significant effect on the level of that spending. Research implications/limitations – The findings of this study imply that uptake of health insurance does not fully cushion people from both using cash payments when seeking health services and ramifications of catastrophic health care spending. The study however, encountered challenges of unavailability of more recent data in the KHHEUS series. In addition, the sample size was relatively small to the population after data cleaning. Originality/value/contribution – Potential effect of health insurance on OOP health care payments had not been explored in Kenya. As such, this study filled this gap. In addition, the two-part model estimation technique was also employed with the latest household health survey data.
摘要目的/目的-本研究的目的是估计健康保险对自付(OOP)医疗保健支出在肯尼亚的影响。在获得和利用高质量和负担得起的保健服务方面持续存在挑战,这为委员会提供了信息。以前,研究人员已经估计了不同形式的卫生保健融资对其需求的影响,并表明可负担性不仅提高了卫生服务的获取和使用,而且还缓冲了与灾难性卫生保健支出相关的不利财务风险。设计/方法/方法-本研究使用2013年肯尼亚家庭卫生支出和利用调查(KHHEUS)数据,并采用两部分模型估计方法。估计中考虑的样本量为6,961,分析单位为单个家庭成员。研究结果-这项研究的总体结果表明,拥有健康保险并不排除一个人使用OOP付款。然而,与没有保险的人相比,有保险的人进行此类支出的可能性较低。此外,如果为任何医疗保健服务支付现金,拥有保险对该支出水平没有显著影响。研究意义/限制-本研究的结果表明,健康保险的吸收并不能完全缓冲人们在寻求医疗服务时使用现金支付和灾难性医疗保健支出的后果。然而,该研究遇到了无法获得KHHEUS系列最新数据的挑战。此外,数据清洗后的样本量相对于总体而言相对较小。原创性/价值/贡献——在肯尼亚,尚未探讨健康保险对面向对象的医疗保健付款的潜在影响。因此,这项研究填补了这一空白。此外,利用最新的家庭健康调查数据,采用了两部分模型估计技术。
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引用次数: 0
Value proposition of smartphone destination marketing: The cases of Hong Kong and South Korea 智能手机目的地营销的价值定位:以香港和韩国为例
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22367/jem.2022.44.08
Hyun hee Kim, Sunny Sun, R. Law
Abstract Aim/purpose – This paper aims at examining the value propositions of tourism marketing for smartphone marketing and the value perceptions of tourists of using smartphone applications by investigating the National Tourism Organization (NTO) of Hong Kong and South Korea, respectively. Design/methodology/approach – Through conducting in-depth and focus group interviews, the present study explored and compared the value proposition of smartphone destination marketing of the NTOs in Hong Kong and South Korea. Findings – Findings of the present study indicate seven value propositions of the NTO, including aesthetic, functional, hedonic, organizational, social, technological, and user experience values. Research implications/limitations – An increasing number of destination marketing organizations have been adopting smartphones to meet the demands of the competitive marketing environment. Hence, tourism organizations must enhance the delivery of quality travel-related information to improve tourists’ perceived value. A conceptual framework was proposed based on the findings of the present study, and valuable practical implications were provided. Originality/value/contribution – The originality of the present study lies in the integration of the value proposition concept in the consumption value theory to the mobile context in tourism.
摘要目的/目的-本文旨在通过调查香港和韩国国家旅游局(NTO),分别研究旅游营销对智能手机营销的价值主张和游客使用智能手机应用程序的价值观念。设计/方法/方法-本研究透过深入及焦点小组访谈,探讨及比较香港及韩国旅游服务公司的智能手机目的地营销的价值主张。研究结果-本研究的发现表明了NTO的七个价值主张,包括美学、功能、享乐、组织、社会、技术和用户体验价值。研究启示/限制-越来越多的目的地营销组织已经采用智能手机,以满足竞争激烈的营销环境的需求。因此,旅游组织必须加强优质旅游相关信息的传递,以提高游客的感知价值。在此基础上提出了一个概念框架,并提出了有价值的实践意义。原创性/价值/贡献——本研究的原创性在于将消费价值理论中的价值主张概念整合到旅游的移动语境中。
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引用次数: 1
COVID-19 conspiracy theories in Canada: Evidence, verification, and implications for decision making 加拿大的COVID-19阴谋论:证据、验证和对决策的影响
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22367/jem.2022.44.10
B. Travica
Abstract Aim/purpose – The COVID-19 pandemic generated a new communication universe with numerous actors, including conspiracy theory (CT) promoters who spread skepticism about the authenticity of the pandemic and the necessity of health emergency regulations. This study explores the dissemination of COVID-19 conspiracy theories in Canada to create a model for verifying conspiracy theories, especially in the context of decision making. Design/methodology/approach – The study was transdisciplinary and it was composed of an empirical and a conceptual part. The first part used analysis of websites and social media, observation with participation for data collection, and standard content analysis for data analysis. The conceptual part used a philosophical inquiry and a framework on heuristics in decision making. Findings – The empirical part of the study established three types of conspiracy theory promoters and labeled these as Conspiracy Theory Mill, Busy Gunman, and Hyper Relay. The conceptual part of the study created a model for CT verification. The study extends conceptualizing of conspiracy theories by characterizing them as narratives based on arbitrary ontological assumptions, epistemic naïveté and flaws, and contorted and biased logic. These narratives represent a form of folkish storytelling and entertainment, which become dangerous in the state of a public health emergency. Research implications/limitations – The study has implications for research on conspiracy theories and for the theory of decision making. The study’s insight into the Canadian conspiracy theory landscape is limited by the types of social contexts studied. The model for verifying a conspiracy theory, which the study developed, is still incipient in character and needs further validation. The model can be used in decision-making theory. Originality/value/contribution – The study confirms the literature on conspiracy theories originating in the areas of psychology and cultural studies. Beyond just exhibiting characteristics reported in the literature, the discovered three types of conspiracy theory promoters may advance the corresponding typology research. The model for verifying a conspiracy theory may contribute to research on the nature of conspiratorial content as well as to decision-making theory. Practically, the three promoter types and the verification model can be used as part of a blueprint for identifying and controlling conspiracy theories. Decision-makers at large may benefit, including those in health institutions, government, business as well as lay people.
摘要目的/目的- COVID-19大流行产生了一个新的传播宇宙,其中包括阴谋论(CT)推动者,他们散布对大流行真实性和卫生应急法规必要性的怀疑。本研究探讨了COVID-19阴谋论在加拿大的传播,以创建一个验证阴谋论的模型,特别是在决策背景下。设计/方法论/方法-该研究是跨学科的,它由实证和概念部分组成。第一部分采用网站和社交媒体分析,参与观察收集数据,标准内容分析进行数据分析。概念部分在决策中使用了哲学探究和启发式框架。研究发现-研究的实证部分建立了三种类型的阴谋论推动者,并将其标记为阴谋论磨坊,忙碌枪手和超级继电器。研究的概念部分创建了一个用于CT验证的模型。该研究通过将阴谋论描述为基于任意本体论假设、认识论naïveté和缺陷以及扭曲和有偏见的逻辑的叙述,扩展了阴谋论的概念化。这些叙述代表了一种民间叙事和娱乐形式,在突发公共卫生事件中变得危险。研究启示/限制-该研究对阴谋论和决策理论的研究有启示。这项研究对加拿大阴谋论景观的洞察受到所研究的社会背景类型的限制。该研究开发的验证阴谋论的模型在性质上仍处于初级阶段,需要进一步验证。该模型可用于决策理论。原创性/价值/贡献——该研究证实了起源于心理学和文化研究领域的阴谋论文献。除了表现出文献报道的特征外,发现的三种类型的阴谋论推动者可能会推动相应的类型学研究。验证阴谋论的模型有助于研究阴谋内容的性质以及决策理论。实际上,三种启动子类型和验证模型可以作为识别和控制阴谋论蓝图的一部分。广大决策者可能从中受益,包括卫生机构、政府、企业和非专业人员。
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引用次数: 0
Factors influencing internal whistleblowing. A systematic review of the literature 影响内部举报的因素。对文献的系统回顾
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22367/jem.2022.44.07
Dawid Mrowiec
Abstract Aim/purpose – Internal whistleblowing is the most desirable form of reporting about wrongdoings for all kinds of organizations. The aim of this paper is to identify factors influencing the occurrence of internal whistleblowing and to provide recommendations for practitioners on how to encourage employees to report wrongdoings to an organization. Design/methodology/approach – The fundamental article database has been constructed with the use of ProQuest, EBSCO and Taylor & Francis databases. The timespan for the research was from 1990 to 2022. The papers for the fundamental database were found within the utilization of two words “whistleblowing” in titles and “internal” in abstracts. Next, the database was broadened by snowball review. Findings – Identified factors important for the occurrence of internal whistleblowing in an organization were assigned to one of the following areas: ethics, leadership, policies and procedures, retaliations and safeguards, social climate, organizational justice, education and training, reporting channels, communication, additional motivation, organization’s size and structure, audit committee. Research implications/limitations – For researchers – the paper provides a picture of research on internal whistleblowing: identified factors influencing internal whistleblowing, popularity of exploring problems, and utilizing research methods. For practitioners – the paper provides practical implications (based on current knowledge) important for implementing and managing organizational whistleblowing systems in the organization of private and public sectors. Originality/value/contribution – The main contribution of this work states the framework of factors affecting internal whistleblowing, which was constructed on the basis of a systematic review of the scientific literature. Moreover, the paper provides guidelines for practitioners.
摘要目的/目的——内部举报是各种组织举报不法行为的最理想形式。本文的目的是找出影响内部举报发生的因素,并就如何鼓励员工向组织举报不法行为为从业者提供建议。设计/方法/方法-使用ProQuest、EBSCO和Taylor & Francis数据库构建了基础文章数据库。这项研究的时间跨度是从1990年到2022年。基础数据库的论文在标题中使用了“whistleblower”两个词,摘要中使用了“internal”两个词。其次,采用滚雪球法扩大了数据库。调查结果-确定的组织内部举报发生的重要因素被分配到以下领域之一:道德,领导,政策和程序,报复和保障,社会气候,组织正义,教育和培训,报告渠道,沟通,额外动机,组织的规模和结构,审计委员会。研究意义/限制-对于研究人员-本文提供了内部举报研究的概况:确定影响内部举报的因素,探索问题的流行程度,以及研究方法的使用。对于从业人员-本文提供了实践意义(基于当前的知识),对于在私营和公共部门的组织中实施和管理组织举报制度很重要。原创性/价值/贡献-本工作的主要贡献陈述了影响内部举报的因素框架,该框架是在对科学文献进行系统回顾的基础上构建的。此外,本文还为从业者提供了指南。
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引用次数: 4
Time-Varying Return Predictability and Adaptive Behavior in The U.S. Commodity Markets During COVID-19 COVID-19期间美国商品市场的时变收益可预测性和自适应行为
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.47836/ijeamsi.16.1.005
M. Shahid, Muhammad Umar Islam, Nafis Alam, Mohsin Ali
The study investigates the time-varying efficiency of the four most commonly traded international commodities from the U.S. Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) over a more extended period as well as during COVID-19. The study also explores how adaptive behavior of returns induces profitable opportunities in the commodity markets. Daily returns of commodity indices (gold, silver, oil, metal) are divided into subsamples of six years, to apply a battery of linear/nonlinear tests. The study uncovers the linear and nonlinear serial dependence in returns from commodities and finds evidence of time-varying volatility, thus consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis over the full sample period. Moreover, returns from all the commodities are highly volatile and predictable during COVID-19.
该研究调查了美国芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)最常交易的四种国际大宗商品在较长时间内以及在COVID-19期间的时变效率。研究还探讨了回报的适应性行为如何在商品市场中诱导有利可图的机会。商品指数(黄金、白银、石油、金属)的日收益被划分为6年的子样本,以应用一系列线性/非线性测试。该研究揭示了商品收益的线性和非线性序列依赖关系,并发现了时变波动的证据,从而在整个样本周期内与自适应市场假说一致。此外,在2019冠状病毒病期间,所有大宗商品的回报都是高度波动和可预测的。
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引用次数: 3
Understanding the HRM systems double contribution to radical and incremental innovation in SMEs: A configurational approach 了解人力资源管理系统对中小企业激进和渐进式创新的双重贡献:一种配置方法
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22367/jem.2022.44.13
C. Curado, Tiago Gonçalves, João Costa Brito
Abstract Aim/purpose – In this paper, we explore the contribution of Human Resource Management Systems (HRMS) to innovation in SMEs. We consider two HRMS with different orientations: Commitment HRMS (focusing on long-term career development to increase employees’ creativity) and Collaboration HRMS (focusing on the use of external human capital to achieve innovation). We believe that SMEs’ radical and incremental innovation follow different paths from a configurational perspective. We want to understand how the two HRMS influence radical and incremental innovation, consequently, we explore the contributions of Commitment HRMS and Collaboration HRMS. Design/methodology/approach – We apply a set-theoretic method, an analytic quantitative and qualitative technique to approach data – fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) – to test our models. We use a sample of 377 Portuguese SMEs from across industries. Findings – Results show there are two pathways that lead SMEs to high levels of incremental innovation and three alternative paths that originate high levels of radical innovation. By contrast, there are ways that lead to lower levels of incremental (two options) and radical innovation (three options). Research implications/limitations – We provide propositions for theory development on the contribution of HRMS to innovation. Managerial contributions regard the several options provided to SME managers in search of innovation. Limitations regard the lack of generalization power of results due to the cross-sectional nature of the work. However, the research design is replicable without restrictions. Originality/value/contribution – We suggest that SMEs’ radical and incremental innovation follow different paths from a configurational perspective. With this study, we contribute to showing the diversity of ways to reach higher innovation levels at SMEs, so that managers know the alternatives they have at their disposal. Additionally, we reveal the ways that lead to lower innovation levels at SMEs, so we alert managers to the undesired pathways they should be cautious about.
摘要目的:本文探讨人力资源管理系统(HRMS)对中小企业创新的贡献。我们考虑了两种不同导向的人力资源管理体系:承诺型人力资源管理体系(侧重于长期职业发展以提高员工的创造力)和协作型人力资源管理体系(侧重于利用外部人力资本以实现创新)。我们认为,从结构的角度看,中小企业的激进创新和渐进式创新遵循不同的路径。我们想了解这两种人力资源管理系统是如何影响激进型和渐进式创新的,因此,我们探讨了承诺型人力资源管理系统和协作型人力资源管理系统的贡献。设计/方法论/方法-我们采用集合理论方法,一种分析定量和定性的技术来处理数据-模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA) -来测试我们的模型。我们使用了来自各行各业的377家葡萄牙中小企业的样本。研究结果表明,有两条路径可以引导中小企业走向高水平的渐进式创新,有三条路径可以引导中小企业走向高水平的激进式创新。相比之下,有一些方法可以导致较低水平的增量创新(两种选择)和激进创新(三种选择)。研究启示/局限——我们为人力资源管理系统对创新的贡献的理论发展提出了建议。管理方面的贡献涉及为寻求创新的中小企业管理者提供的几种选择。由于工作的横断面性质,限制考虑到结果缺乏泛化能力。然而,研究设计是可复制的,没有限制。原创性/价值/贡献——我们建议从配置的角度来看,中小企业的激进创新和渐进式创新遵循不同的路径。通过这项研究,我们有助于展示中小企业达到更高创新水平的方法的多样性,以便管理人员了解他们可以选择的替代方案。此外,我们揭示了导致中小企业创新水平较低的途径,因此我们提醒管理者他们应该谨慎的不良途径。
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引用次数: 0
Attitudes Toward Vaccination and Its Impact on Economy 对疫苗接种的态度及其对经济的影响
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.47836/ijeamsi.16.1.009
H. Saydaliev, S. Kadyrov, Lee Chin
Rapid rollouts of the vaccine are imperative for economic recovery; however, vaccine hesitancy could draw out not only the pandemic but also social distancing and lockdown requirements. The main purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether the vaccination rate affects government budget constraints as well as whether vaccine hesitancy matters in controlling the dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic in Uzbekistan. We integrated a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) epidemic model with a macroeconomic model to explore the impact of the vaccination. Our results show that vaccine hesitancy substantially influences excess COVID-19-related deaths, such that governments that are able to sustain quick vaccine rollout rates would have a 20-times lower excess death rate. A slow-paced vaccine rollout has compounded effects over time, producing much heavier consequences for the population than a rapid rollout rate. In Uzbekistan, a counterfactual exercise that intensified vaccine hesitancy between April and November 2021 likely increased the death toll by approximately thousand deaths. Therefore, the policy gains of accelerating the vaccination rate are significant, given that it would minimize both cumulative mortality and the risk of new virus variants while achieving herd immunity. Concurrently, efforts to mitigate hesitancy are crucial, particularly if the percentage of the population that is against the vaccination is greater than the percentage needed for herd immunity. To this end, our empirical study helps shed light on the challenging dynamics between health and the economy during the pandemic as well as the mechanisms through which these effects take place.
迅速推广疫苗对经济复苏至关重要;然而,对疫苗的犹豫不仅会拖延大流行,还会拖延社交距离和封锁要求。本文的主要目的是实证研究疫苗接种率是否会影响政府预算约束,以及疫苗犹豫是否对控制乌兹别克斯坦新冠肺炎疫情的动态起作用。我们将易感-暴露-感染-去除(SEIR)流行病模型与宏观经济模型相结合,以探索疫苗接种的影响。我们的研究结果表明,疫苗犹豫在很大程度上影响了与covid -19相关的超额死亡,因此,能够维持快速疫苗推广率的政府的超额死亡率将降低20倍。随着时间的推移,缓慢的疫苗推广会产生复杂的影响,对人口造成的后果要比快速推出疫苗严重得多。在乌兹别克斯坦,2021年4月至11月期间,一场反事实的演习加剧了对疫苗的犹豫,可能使死亡人数增加了约1000人。因此,加速疫苗接种率的政策收益是显著的,因为它将最大限度地减少累积死亡率和新病毒变异的风险,同时实现群体免疫。同时,减少犹豫的努力至关重要,特别是如果反对接种疫苗的人口比例大于群体免疫所需的百分比。为此,我们的实证研究有助于揭示大流行期间卫生与经济之间具有挑战性的动态,以及这些影响发生的机制。
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引用次数: 0
Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows: Structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility 波罗的海贸易流动的时间序列动态:结构断裂、制度转变和汇率波动
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22367/jem.2022.44.05
S. Hegerty
Abstract Aim/purpose – In the decades since their reintegration with the West, the small open economies of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have seen their trade flows grow substantially. While the mix of trade partners has evolved over time, the region has been affected by various political and economic shocks. This study examines the bilateral trade balances between the Baltic countries and nine partners to investigate whether there have been structural breaks due to political or economic events. Because these events may have been “priced into” exchange rates or increased these rates’ volatility, connections between these variables and trade balances are also considered. Design/methodology/approach – Monthly data beginning in 1994 are taken from the International Monetary Fund’s Direction of Trade Statistics [DOTS]. Trade partners include the Nordic countries of Finland, Sweden, and Norway, as well as Poland, Russia, and the United States and country groupings such as the CIS, Advanced Economies, and the World. Ratios of the export and import values are used to create bilateral trade balances. The Bai–Perron (1998) structural break test is then used to identify “break points” that can classify time periods into regimes. Baltic nominal and real effective exchange rates, both in log changes and as a GARCH-based volatility measure, show whether regimes correspond to competitiveness or risk. Correlations are calculated to show links between bilateral trade balances and real exchange rates. Findings – Each trade balance has at least one structural break; many have more. In fewer than half of the cases do these correspond to specific events such as EU accession or the Global Financial Crisis. Trade with Russia has decreased, particularly for Estonia and Latvia. But many partners with historical ties, such as Estonia-Finland, Latvia- -Sweden, and Lithuania-Poland have more breaks than do other partners (such as Estonia- -Poland). Structural breaks in real exchange-rate returns and volatility do not match those of trade balances, and correlations between returns and trade balances are low. Research implications/limitations – These findings open the door to future research on the macroeconomic and cultural/historical factors behind these trade linkages and any changes in regimes. However, no structural determinants have yet been estimated. Originality/value/contribution – This study isolates changes in trade regimes, which can be further explained by specific events or particular dates. It also shows that variance has changed as well as the mean, but this differs by country and by the partner.
摘要目的/目的——在与西方重新融合后的几十年里,爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛这些小型开放经济体的贸易流量大幅增长。虽然贸易伙伴的构成随着时间的推移而变化,但该地区受到各种政治和经济冲击的影响。本研究考察了波罗的海国家与九个合作伙伴之间的双边贸易平衡,以调查是否存在由于政治或经济事件而导致的结构性断裂。因为这些事件可能已经被“定价”到汇率中,或者增加了汇率的波动性,这些变量和贸易平衡之间的联系也被考虑在内。设计/方法/方法-从1994年开始的每月数据取自国际货币基金组织的贸易统计方向[DOTS]。贸易伙伴包括芬兰、瑞典和挪威等北欧国家,以及波兰、俄罗斯和美国,以及独联体、发达经济体和世界等国家集团。进出口价值的比率被用来创造双边贸易平衡。然后使用Bai-Perron(1998)结构断裂测试来确定可以将时间段划分为制度的“断点”。波罗的海名义和实际有效汇率,无论是对数变化还是基于garch的波动率衡量,都显示了制度是否与竞争力或风险相对应。计算相关性是为了显示双边贸易平衡与实际汇率之间的联系。研究发现:每个贸易平衡至少有一个结构性突破;许多人拥有更多。在不到一半的案例中,这与加入欧盟或全球金融危机等具体事件相对应。与俄罗斯的贸易减少了,尤其是爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚。但是许多有历史关系的伙伴,如爱沙尼亚-芬兰,拉脱维亚-瑞典,立陶宛-波兰,比其他伙伴(如爱沙尼亚-波兰)有更多的中断。实际汇率收益和波动性的结构性断裂与贸易差额的结构性断裂不匹配,收益与贸易差额之间的相关性较低。研究意义/局限性-这些发现为未来对这些贸易联系和任何制度变化背后的宏观经济和文化/历史因素的研究打开了大门。然而,尚未估计出结构性决定因素。原创性/价值/贡献-本研究分离了贸易制度的变化,这些变化可以通过特定事件或特定日期进一步解释。它还表明,方差和平均值一样发生了变化,但这因国家和伴侣而异。
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引用次数: 0
Saudi Arabia’s City-Ranking Index (SACRI) methodology executed: Preliminary findings 沙特阿拉伯城市排名指数(SACRI)方法的执行:初步调查结果
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22367/jem.2022.44.15
Rshood M. Al-Khraif, Mohammed Al-Mogarry, Ibrahim Elsegaey, A. Salam
Abstract Aim/purpose – Saudi Arabia is rapidly urbanizing, where the number of urban residents, currently exceeds 80% of the population. Many cities in the country face challenges of sustainability, livability, resilience, and thus global reputation. Therefore, measuring city performance is crucial in assessing urban complexity in order to improve development potential. As stated in Vision 2030 of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, attempts at improving the global competitiveness and reputation of cities are of prime importance. This attempt aims at developing a culturally sensitive city ranking methodology, testing the method with relevant statistics, and presenting the preliminary results for further discussions, deliberations, and extensions. Design/methodology/approach – In this context, an index named Saudi Arabia’s City- -Ranking Index (SACRI) was developed, which proposes a three-dimensional assessment, incorporating livability, competitiveness, and environmental sustainability with 58 indicators (widely used or culturally specific). This exercise is carried out in 17 future cities, considering the feasibility criterion. Findings – Riyadh emerged as the most preferred city with the first rank, followed by Jeddah, Dammam, Madina, and Al Baha in order. Najran ranks 17, the last, preceded by Jazan, Al Qatif, Arar, and Al Taif. Research implications/limitations – This ranking of Saudi Arabia’s cities seeks importance in planning, improving, and promoting livability, competitiveness, and environmental sustainability to grab prominent places on a global scale. Originality/value/contribution – This exercise is unique for Saudi Arabia, with specific cultural dimensions that could be replicated in the neighboring Arab countries.
目的/目的-沙特阿拉伯正在快速城市化,其中城市居民的数量,目前超过80%的人口。该国的许多城市都面临着可持续性、宜居性、弹性以及全球声誉方面的挑战。因此,衡量城市绩效对于评估城市复杂性以提高发展潜力至关重要。正如沙特阿拉伯王国《2030年愿景》所述,提高城市的全球竞争力和声誉至关重要。这一尝试旨在开发一种具有文化敏感性的城市排名方法,用相关统计数据对该方法进行测试,并提出初步结果,以供进一步讨论、审议和扩展。设计/方法/方法——在这种背景下,沙特阿拉伯城市排名指数(SACRI)被开发出来,它提出了一个三维评估,将宜居性、竞争力和环境可持续性与58个指标(广泛使用或文化特定)结合起来。考虑到可行性标准,这项工作将在17个未来城市进行。调查结果-利雅得成为最受欢迎的城市,排名第一,其次是吉达、达曼、麦地那和巴哈。纳季兰排在第17位,排在最后的是吉赞、卡提夫、阿拉尔和塔伊夫。研究意义/局限性——沙特阿拉伯城市的排名着眼于规划、改善和促进宜居性、竞争力和环境可持续性,以在全球范围内占据突出位置。原创性/价值/贡献——这种做法对沙特阿拉伯来说是独一无二的,具有特定的文化维度,可以在邻近的阿拉伯国家复制。
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引用次数: 1
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International Journal of Economics and Management
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