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Visualizing The Implicit Model Selection Tradeoff 可视化隐式模型选择权衡
Pub Date : 2021-10-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3946701
Zezhen He, Yaron Shaposhnik
The recent rise of machine learning (ML) has been leveraged by practitioners and researchers to provide new solutions to an ever growing number of business problems. As with other ML applications, these solutions rely on model selection, which is typically achieved by evaluating certain metrics on models separately and selecting the model whose evaluations (i.e., accuracy-related loss and/or certain interpretability measures) are optimal. However, empirical evidence suggests that, in practice, multiple models often attain competitive results. Therefore, while models’ overall performance could be similar, they could operate quite differently. This results in an implicit tradeoff in models’ performance throughout the feature space which resolving requires new model selection tools.This paper explores methods for comparing predictive models in an interpretable manner to uncover the tradeoff and help resolve it. To this end, we propose various methods that synthesize ideas from supervised learning, unsupervised learning, dimensionality reduction, and visualization to demonstrate how they can be used to inform model developers about the model selection process. Using various datasets and a simple Python interface, we demonstrate how practitioners and researchers could benefit from applying these approaches to better understand the broader impact of their model selection choices.
最近机器学习(ML)的兴起已经被从业者和研究人员利用,为越来越多的业务问题提供了新的解决方案。与其他ML应用程序一样,这些解决方案依赖于模型选择,这通常是通过单独评估模型上的某些指标并选择其评估(即,与准确性相关的损失和/或某些可解释性度量)最优的模型来实现的。然而,经验证据表明,在实践中,多种模型往往获得竞争性结果。因此,虽然模型的整体性能可能相似,但它们的操作可能完全不同。这导致了模型在整个特征空间的性能的隐式权衡,解决这个问题需要新的模型选择工具。本文探讨了以可解释的方式比较预测模型的方法,以揭示权衡并帮助解决它。为此,我们提出了各种方法,这些方法综合了监督学习、无监督学习、降维和可视化的思想,以演示如何使用它们来通知模型开发人员关于模型选择过程。使用各种数据集和简单的Python接口,我们演示了从业者和研究人员如何从应用这些方法中受益,以更好地理解他们的模型选择选择的更广泛影响。
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引用次数: 0
Troubleshooting: a Dynamic Solution for Achieving Reliable Fault Detection by Combining Augmented Reality and Machine Learning 故障排除:结合增强现实和机器学习实现可靠故障检测的动态解决方案
Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3945964
S. Scheffer, Nick Limmen, R. Damgrave, A. Martinetti, B. Rosic, L. V. van Dongen
Today’s perplexing maintenance operations and rapid technology development require an understanding of the complex working environment and processing of dynamic and real-time information. However, the environment complexity and an exponential increase in data volume create new challenges and demands and hence make troubleshooting extremely difficult. To overcome the previously mentioned issues and provide the operator real-time access to fast-flowing information, we propose a hybrid solution made of augmented reality further combined with machine learning software. In particular, we present a dynamic reference map of all the required modules and relations that connect machine learning with augmented reality on an example of adaptive fault detection. The proposed dynamic reference map is applied to a pilot case study for immediate validation. To highlight the effectiveness of the proposed solution, the more challenging task of measuring the impact of combining augmented reality with machine learning for fault analysis on maintenance decisions is addressed.
当今复杂的维护操作和快速的技术发展要求了解复杂的工作环境和动态实时信息的处理。然而,环境的复杂性和数据量的指数级增长带来了新的挑战和需求,因此使故障排除变得极其困难。为了克服前面提到的问题,并为操作员提供实时访问快速流动的信息,我们提出了一种由增强现实进一步结合机器学习软件的混合解决方案。特别是,我们在一个自适应故障检测的例子上提出了一个动态参考图,其中包含了所有必需的模块和将机器学习与增强现实联系起来的关系。建议的动态参考图应用于一个试点案例研究,以立即验证。为了突出所提出的解决方案的有效性,解决了测量将增强现实与机器学习结合起来进行故障分析对维护决策的影响的更具挑战性的任务。
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引用次数: 0
Policy Optimization Using Semiparametric Models for Dynamic Pricing 基于半参数模型的动态定价策略优化
Pub Date : 2021-09-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3922825
Jianqing Fan, Yongyi Guo, Mengxin Yu
In this paper, we study the contextual dynamic pricing problem where the market value of a product is linear in their observed features plus some market noise. Products are sold one at a time, and only a binary response indicating the success or failure of a sale is observed. Our model setting is similar to cite{JN19} except that we expand the demand curve to a semiparametric model and need to learn dynamically both parametric and nonparametric components. We propose a dynamic statistical learning and decision-making policy that combines semiparametric estimation from a generalized linear model with an unknown link and online decision making to minimize regret (maximize revenue). Under mild conditions, we show that for a market noise c.d.f. $F(cdot)$ with $m$-th order derivative, our policy achieves a regret upper bound of $tilde{cO}_{d}(T^{frac{2m+1}{4m-1}})$ for $mgeq 2$, where $T$ is time horizon and $tilde{cO}_{d}$ is the order that hides logarithmic terms and the dimensionality of feature $d$. The upper bound is further reduced to $tilde{cO}_{d}(sqrt{T})$ if $F$ is super smooth whose Fourier transform decays exponentially. In terms of dependence on the horizon $T$, these upper bounds are close to $Omega(sqrt{T})$, the lower bound where the market noise distribution belongs to a parametric class. We further generalize these results to the case when the product features are dynamically dependent, satisfying some strong mixing conditions.
本文研究了产品的市场价值在观察特征上是线性的,加上一些市场噪声的情景动态定价问题。每次只销售一种产品,并且只观察到表示销售成功或失败的二元响应。我们的模型设置类似于cite{JN19},除了我们将需求曲线扩展为半参数模型,并且需要动态学习参数和非参数组件。我们提出了一种动态统计学习和决策策略,该策略结合了具有未知链接的广义线性模型的半参数估计和在线决策以最小化遗憾(最大化收益)。在温和的条件下,我们表明,对于具有$m$ -阶导数的市场噪声c.d.f. $F(cdot)$,我们的策略实现了$mgeq 2$的遗憾上界$tilde{cO}_{d}(T^{frac{2m+1}{4m-1}})$,其中$T$是时间范围,$tilde{cO}_{d}$是隐藏对数项和特征$d$维数的阶数。如果$F$是超光滑且傅里叶变换呈指数衰减,则上界进一步简化为$tilde{cO}_{d}(sqrt{T})$。就视界$T$的依赖性而言,这些上界接近$Omega(sqrt{T})$,市场噪声分布属于参数类的下界。我们进一步将这些结果推广到产品特征是动态相关的情况下,满足一些强混合条件。
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引用次数: 14
Policy Gradient Methods Find the Nash Equilibrium in N-player General-sum Linear-quadratic Games 策略梯度法求解n人一般和线性二次对策的纳什均衡
Pub Date : 2021-07-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3894471
B. Hambly, Renyuan Xu, Huining Yang
We consider a general-sum N-player linear-quadratic game with stochastic dynamics over a finite horizon and prove the global convergence of the natural policy gradient method to the Nash equilibrium. In order to prove convergence of the method we require a certain amount of noise in the system. We give a condition, essentially a lower bound on the covariance of the noise in terms of the model parameters, in order to guarantee convergence. We illustrate our results with numerical experiments to show that even in situations where the policy gradient method may not converge in the deterministic setting, the addition of noise leads to convergence.
考虑一个有限视界上的n人线性二次博弈,证明了自然策略梯度法对纳什均衡的全局收敛性。为了证明该方法的收敛性,需要在系统中加入一定量的噪声。为了保证收敛,我们给出了一个条件,本质上是关于模型参数的噪声协方差的下界。我们用数值实验来说明我们的结果,表明即使在策略梯度方法在确定性设置下可能不收敛的情况下,噪声的加入也会导致收敛。
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引用次数: 13
Deep Learning under Model Uncertainty 模型不确定性下的深度学习
Pub Date : 2021-06-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3875151
M. Merz, Mario V. Wuthrich
Deep learning has proven to lead to very powerful predictive models, often outperforming classical regression models such as generalized linear models. Deep learning models perform representation learning, which means that they do covariate engineering themselves so that explanatory variables are optimally transformed for the predictive problem at hand. A crucial object in deep learning is the loss function (objective function) for model fitting which implicitly reflects the distributional properties of the observed samples. The purpose of this article is to discuss the choice of this loss function, in particular, we give a specific proposal of a loss function choice under model uncertainty. This proposal turns out to robustify representation learning and prediction.
深度学习已被证明可以产生非常强大的预测模型,通常优于经典回归模型,如广义线性模型。深度学习模型执行表示学习,这意味着它们自己进行协变量工程,以便为手边的预测问题最佳地转换解释变量。深度学习的一个关键对象是模型拟合的损失函数(目标函数),它隐含地反映了观察样本的分布特性。本文的目的是讨论这种损失函数的选择,特别是我们给出了模型不确定性下的损失函数选择的具体建议。这一建议被证明是鲁棒的表征学习和预测。
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引用次数: 1
Are Agent-based Models Universal Approximators? [Extended Pre-print] 基于智能体的模型是通用逼近器吗?(延长预印)
Pub Date : 2021-06-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3867586
Joseph A. E. Shaheen
Universal approximation functions are well known and studied in canonical mathematics. Here we theorize the existence of an independent class of universal approximation agents and agent-based models. We draw upon historical references from mathematical analysis, the development of machine learning and the agent-based modeling lines of inquiry.
普遍近似函数是规范数学中众所周知的研究对象。在这里,我们理论化了一类独立的通用近似代理和基于代理的模型的存在性。我们从数学分析、机器学习的发展和基于代理的建模探究线中汲取历史参考。
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引用次数: 0
Explainable AI (XAI) Models Applied to Planning in Financial Markets 可解释人工智能(XAI)模型在金融市场规划中的应用
Pub Date : 2021-06-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3862437
E. Benhamou, J. Ohana, D. Saltiel, B. Guez, S. Ohana
Regime changes planning in financial markets is well known to be hard to explain and interpret. Can an asset manager ex-plain clearly the intuition of his regime changes prediction on equity market ? To answer this question, we consider a gradi-ent boosting decision trees (GBDT) approach to plan regime changes on S&P 500 from a set of 150 technical, fundamen-tal and macroeconomic features. We report an improved ac-curacy of GBDT over other machine learning (ML) methods on the S&P 500 futures prices. We show that retaining fewer and carefully selected features provides improvements across all ML approaches. Shapley values have recently been intro-duced from game theory to the field of ML. This approach allows a robust identification of the most important variables planning stock market crises, and of a local explanation of the crisis probability at each date, through a consistent features attribution. We apply this methodology to analyse in detail the March 2020 financial meltdown, for which the model of-fered a timely out of sample prediction. This analysis unveils in particular the contrarian predictive role of the tech equity sector before and after the crash.
众所周知,金融市场的制度变化和规划很难解释。一个资产管理公司能否清楚地解释他的直觉会改变对股市的预测?为了回答这个问题,我们考虑了一种梯度增强决策树(GBDT)方法,从一组150个技术、基本和宏观经济特征中规划标准普尔500指数的制度变化。我们报告了GBDT在标准普尔500指数期货价格上比其他机器学习(ML)方法的准确性有所提高。我们表明,保留更少和精心选择的功能可以改善所有ML方法。Shapley值最近被从博弈论引入到机器学习领域。这种方法允许对规划股市危机的最重要变量进行稳健识别,并通过一致的特征归因对每个日期的危机概率进行局部解释。我们应用这种方法详细分析了2020年3月的金融危机,该模型及时提供了样本外预测。这一分析特别揭示了科技股行业在崩盘前后的反向预测作用。
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引用次数: 5
The Multi-Domain Solution 多域解决方案
Pub Date : 2021-05-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3839738
Sébastien Roussel-Konan
Negative Interest Loan Funded Utopianism World-Saving Socio-Economic Development. Cultivating the population. Offering the population custom jobs funded by negative interest loans. Negative interest loan subsidized wage adjustment as well as negative interest loan subsidized inflation mitigation. Refinancing individual (personal), corporate (business, charity) and national (federal, provincial, state, ..., and municipal) debts through loans with negative interest.

Research, development, innovation, implementation, integration, indoctrination and ideation on the human condition while I test advanced medical biotechnology I''ve developed with the Holy Ghost during my ongoing custom studies in omniology, omniosophy and omnimatics focused on human and artificial intelligence along pharmaceutical grade nutrition for physical health and mental clarity have allowed me to go beyond a standard.

JYSKE bank in Denmark, has negative interest mortgages at around 80K$ for the public. Central European Bank issued 1.3 trillion euros in negative interest loans @ -1% to banks. Science is at risk. Mistake of dismissing technological potential due to limited resources. accomplish these goals through negative interest loans as there is insufficient funding available through private and public finances.

Before the automation of our economy goes any further. Ideological goal ultimate way of thinking of making the world a better place rendering the world as the best place where we have the technology and systems to be happy and free indefinitely with negative interest loan funded democratic ultrainternationalistic totalitarian utopianism oriented systems for immortality, freedom and euphoria.
负利率贷款资助的乌托邦主义拯救世界的社会经济发展。培育人口。为民众提供由负利率贷款资助的定制工作。负利率贷款补贴工资调整以及负利率贷款补贴通胀缓解。再融资个人(个人)、公司(商业、慈善)和国家(联邦、省、州……(以及市政)通过负利率贷款的债务。研究、开发、创新、实施、整合、灌输和构思人类状况,同时测试我与圣灵一起开发的先进医学生物技术,在我持续的定制研究中,全智学、全智学和全灵学专注于人类和人工智能,以及用于身体健康和精神清醒的制药级营养,这些都让我超越了标准。丹麦JYSKE银行为公众提供约8万美元的负利率抵押贷款。欧洲央行向银行发放了1.3万亿欧元的负利率贷款,利率为-1%。科学正处于危险之中。由于资源有限而忽视技术潜力的错误。在私人和公共财政资金不足的情况下,通过负利率贷款实现这些目标。在我们的经济自动化进一步发展之前。意识形态目标使世界变得更美好的终极思维方式使世界成为最好的地方在那里我们拥有技术和系统,可以无限期地快乐和自由,负利率贷款资助的民主,超国际主义,极权主义,乌托邦主义导向的系统,追求不朽,自由和快乐。
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引用次数: 0
Learning Bermudans 学习百慕大
Pub Date : 2021-04-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3837499
Riccardo Aiolfi, N. Moreni, M. Bianchetti, Marco Scaringi, Filippo Fogliani
American and Bermudan-type financial instruments are often priced with specific Monte Carlo techniques whose efficiency critically depends on the effective dimensionality of the problem and the available computational power. In our work we focus on Bermudan Swaptions, well-known interest rate derivatives embedded in callable debt instruments or traded in the OTC market for hedging or speculation purposes, and we adopt an original pricing approach based on Supervised Learning (SL) algorithms. In particular, we link the price of a Bermudan Swaption to its natural hedges, i.e. the underlying European Swaptions, and other sound financial quantities through SL non-parametric regressions. We test different algorithms, from linear models to decision tree-based models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), analyzing their predictive performances. All the SL algorithms result to be reliable and fast, allowing to overcome the computational bottleneck of standard Monte Carlo simulations; the best performing algorithms for our problem result to be Ridge, ANN and Gradient Boosted Regression Tree. Moreover, using feature importance techniques, we are able to rank the most important driving factors of a Bermudan Swaption price, confirming that the value of the maximum underlying European Swaption is the prevailing feature.
美国和百慕大类型的金融工具通常采用特定的蒙特卡罗技术定价,其效率主要取决于问题的有效维度和可用的计算能力。在我们的工作中,我们专注于bermuda Swaptions,这是一种众所周知的利率衍生品,嵌入在可赎回债务工具中,或在场外市场交易,用于对冲或投机目的,我们采用基于监督学习(SL)算法的原始定价方法。特别是,我们通过SL非参数回归将百慕大掉期的价格与其自然对冲(即潜在的欧洲掉期)和其他健全的金融数量联系起来。我们测试了不同的算法,从线性模型到基于决策树的模型和人工神经网络(ANN),分析了它们的预测性能。所有的SL算法结果可靠、快速,可以克服标准蒙特卡罗模拟的计算瓶颈;对于我们的问题结果,表现最好的算法是Ridge, ANN和Gradient boosting Regression Tree。此外,使用特征重要性技术,我们能够对百慕大掉期价格的最重要驱动因素进行排名,确认最大潜在欧洲掉期的价值是主要特征。
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引用次数: 0
Neural Networks in Finance: A Descriptive Systematic Review 金融中的神经网络:一个描述性的系统回顾
Pub Date : 2021-02-24 DOI: 10.46281/IJFB.V5I2.997
Dr. K. Riyazahmed
Traditional statistical methods pose challenges in data analysis due to irregularity in the financial data. To improve accuracy, financial researchers use machine learning architectures for the past two decades. Neural Networks (NN) are a widely used architecture in financial research. Despite the wider usage, NN application in finance is yet to be well defined. Hence, this descriptive study classifies and examines the NN application in finance into four broad categories i.e., investment prediction, credit evaluation, financial distress, and other financial applications. Likewise, the review classifies the NN methods used under each category into standard, optimized and hybrid NN. Further, accuracy measures used by the research work widely differ, in turn, pose challenges for comparison of a NN under each category and reduces the scope of formalizing a theory to choose optimum network model under each category.
由于金融数据的不规则性,传统的统计方法对数据分析提出了挑战。为了提高准确性,过去二十年来,金融研究人员一直在使用机器学习架构。神经网络(NN)是金融研究中广泛使用的一种体系结构。尽管应用广泛,但神经网络在金融领域的应用还没有得到很好的定义。因此,本描述性研究将神经网络在金融领域的应用分为四大类,即投资预测、信用评估、财务困境和其他金融应用。同样,本文将每个类别下使用的神经网络方法分为标准、优化和混合神经网络。此外,研究工作中使用的精度度量差异很大,这反过来又给每个类别下的神经网络的比较带来了挑战,并减少了形式化理论以选择每个类别下最优网络模型的范围。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
CompSciRN: Other Machine Learning (Topic)
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