Pub Date : 2018-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.4.353
Hiroyuki Taguchi, Erdenechuluun Khishigjargal
This article aims to review the monetary policy rule under inflation targeting framework focusing on Mongolia. The empirical analysis estimates the policy reaction function to see if the inflation targeting has been linked with a monetary policy rule emphasizing on inflation stabilization since its adoption in 2007. The study contributes to the literature by examining the linkage between Mongolian monetary policy rule and inflation targeting directly and thoroughly for the first time and also by taking into account a recent progress in the inflation targeting framework toward forward-looking mode. The main findings were: the Mongolian current monetary policy rule under inflation targeting is characterized as inflation-responsive rule with forward-looking manner (one quarter ahead); the inflation responsiveness is, however, weak enough to be pro-cyclical to inflation pressure; and the rule is also responsive to exchange rate due to the "fear of floating", which weakens the policy reaction to inflation and output gap.
{"title":"Monetary Policy Rule under Inflation Targeting in Mongolia","authors":"Hiroyuki Taguchi, Erdenechuluun Khishigjargal","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.4.353","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.4.353","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to review the monetary policy rule under inflation targeting framework focusing on Mongolia. The empirical analysis estimates the policy reaction function to see if the inflation targeting has been linked with a monetary policy rule emphasizing on inflation stabilization since its adoption in 2007. The study contributes to the literature by examining the linkage between Mongolian monetary policy rule and inflation targeting directly and thoroughly for the first time and also by taking into account a recent progress in the inflation targeting framework toward forward-looking mode. The main findings were: the Mongolian current monetary policy rule under inflation targeting is characterized as inflation-responsive rule with forward-looking manner (one quarter ahead); the inflation responsiveness is, however, weak enough to be pro-cyclical to inflation pressure; and the rule is also responsive to exchange rate due to the \"fear of floating\", which weakens the policy reaction to inflation and output gap.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.4.349
Alan V. Deardorff
This paper documents the presence of Osensitive sectorsO in Free Trade Agreements, defined as sectors for which the within-FTA tariffs remain positive. The paper includes some brief theoretical discussion of the welfare implications of these, but the main emphasis is on reporting two measures of this phenomenon for countries in FTAs that entered into force between 1994 and 2003. One measure is the percentage of tariff lines that remain dutiable, and the second is the change, from before the FTA to after, in the average maximum (across 6-digit products) positive tariffs. Both measures are derived from data in the UNCTAD TRAINS database, and are then related to measures of country characteristics that might explain them. Low per capita GDP countries tend to have larger fractions of dutiable tariff lines, while higher income countries tend to post larger increases in average maximum positive tariffs. Both suggest that the favored treatment of sensitive sectors is undermining the potential gains from trade that FTAs provide.
{"title":"Sensitive Sectors in Free Trade Agreements","authors":"Alan V. Deardorff","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.4.349","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.4.349","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents the presence of Osensitive sectorsO in Free Trade Agreements, defined as sectors for which the within-FTA tariffs remain positive. The paper includes some brief theoretical discussion of the welfare implications of these, but the main emphasis is on reporting two measures of this phenomenon for countries in FTAs that entered into force between 1994 and 2003. One measure is the percentage of tariff lines that remain dutiable, and the second is the change, from before the FTA to after, in the average maximum (across 6-digit products) positive tariffs. Both measures are derived from data in the UNCTAD TRAINS database, and are then related to measures of country characteristics that might explain them. Low per capita GDP countries tend to have larger fractions of dutiable tariff lines, while higher income countries tend to post larger increases in average maximum positive tariffs. Both suggest that the favored treatment of sensitive sectors is undermining the potential gains from trade that FTAs provide.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"127 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.4.352
Min-Ho Nam
This paper evaluates the whole impact of quantitative easing on inflation in Korea implemented by the central banks in four major advanced economies, the U.S., Euro Area, U.K. and Japan. According to the analysis employing a VAR-X model with the security holdings of those central banks an exogenous variable, quantitative easing is estimated to exert downward pressures on inflation in Korea. Considering the impulse responses of Korean macroeconomic variables to a quantitative easing shock, the spillover effect is transmitted through exchange rate channel while trade channel turns out to be ineffective. In an additional analysis assessing the impact of each quantitative easing program of the central banks, only those of the Fed and European Central Bank are estimated to be significant. The empirical results prove to be robust even if using long-term interest rates as an alternative indicator of quantitative easing.
{"title":"The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Inflation in Korea","authors":"Min-Ho Nam","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.4.352","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.4.352","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates the whole impact of quantitative easing on inflation in Korea implemented by the central banks in four major advanced economies, the U.S., Euro Area, U.K. and Japan. According to the analysis employing a VAR-X model with the security holdings of those central banks an exogenous variable, quantitative easing is estimated to exert downward pressures on inflation in Korea. Considering the impulse responses of Korean macroeconomic variables to a quantitative easing shock, the spillover effect is transmitted through exchange rate channel while trade channel turns out to be ineffective. In an additional analysis assessing the impact of each quantitative easing program of the central banks, only those of the Fed and European Central Bank are estimated to be significant. The empirical results prove to be robust even if using long-term interest rates as an alternative indicator of quantitative easing.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"10 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article aims to review the monetary policy rule under inflation targeting framework focusing on Mongolia. The empirical analysis estimates the policy reaction function to see if the inflation targeting has been linked with a monetary policy rule emphasizing on inflation stabilization since its adoption in 2007. The study contributes to the literature by examining the linkage between Mongolian monetary policy rule and inflation targeting directly and thoroughly for the first time and also by taking into account a recent progress in the inflation targeting framework toward forward-looking mode. The main findings were: the Mongolian current monetary policy rule under inflation targeting is characterized as inflation-responsive rule with forward-looking manner (one quarter ahead); the inflation responsiveness is, however, weak enough to be pro-cyclical to inflation pressure; and the rule is also responsive to exchange rate due to the "fear of floating", which weakens the policy reaction to inflation and output gap.
{"title":"Monetary Policy Rule under Inflation Targeting in Mongolia","authors":"Hiroyuki Taguchi, Erdenechuluun Khishigjargal","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3309051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3309051","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to review the monetary policy rule under inflation targeting framework focusing on Mongolia. The empirical analysis estimates the policy reaction function to see if the inflation targeting has been linked with a monetary policy rule emphasizing on inflation stabilization since its adoption in 2007. The study contributes to the literature by examining the linkage between Mongolian monetary policy rule and inflation targeting directly and thoroughly for the first time and also by taking into account a recent progress in the inflation targeting framework toward forward-looking mode. The main findings were: the Mongolian current monetary policy rule under inflation targeting is characterized as inflation-responsive rule with forward-looking manner (one quarter ahead); the inflation responsiveness is, however, weak enough to be pro-cyclical to inflation pressure; and the rule is also responsive to exchange rate due to the \"fear of floating\", which weakens the policy reaction to inflation and output gap.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44514635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-09-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.344
Bernard Hoekman
A consequence of global trade liberalization is that domestic regulatory policies have become a focal point for efforts to reduce the costs of engaging in cross-border production and exchange. This article discusses the general challenges of reducing trade frictions created by regulatory differences, focusing specifically on the role trade agreements might play in addressing regulatory spillovers. A case is made for a greater focus on plurilateral cooperation under the umbrella of the WTO.
{"title":"‘Behind-the-Border’ Regulatory Policies and Trade Agreements*","authors":"Bernard Hoekman","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.344","url":null,"abstract":"A consequence of global trade liberalization is that domestic regulatory policies have become a focal point for efforts to reduce the costs of engaging in cross-border production and exchange. This article discusses the general challenges of reducing trade frictions created by regulatory differences, focusing specifically on the role trade agreements might play in addressing regulatory spillovers. A case is made for a greater focus on plurilateral cooperation under the umbrella of the WTO.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"11 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-09-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.346
Kyunghun Kim, Il Houng Lee, Won Shim
This paper proposes a monetary aggregate "Liquidity" that could serve as a useful indicator for gauging the appropriateness of monetary policy. If liquidity rises above a certain threshold, it is signaling that monetary policy is losing traction due to structural and other impediments even when the inflation gap remains open. This indicator supplements the financial cycle approach but adds value by providing a benchmark that is derived from the national account, and not based on its own trend. Over the last two decades, each time this measure rose above the threshold range, it was followed by a decline in GDP growth. The latter was greater when accompanied by a high physical asset value to GDP, e.g., an elevated property market.
{"title":"Redefining Liquidity for Monetary Policy*","authors":"Kyunghun Kim, Il Houng Lee, Won Shim","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.346","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a monetary aggregate \"Liquidity\" that could serve as a useful indicator for gauging the appropriateness of monetary policy. If liquidity rises above a certain threshold, it is signaling that monetary policy is losing traction due to structural and other impediments even when the inflation gap remains open. This indicator supplements the financial cycle approach but adds value by providing a benchmark that is derived from the national account, and not based on its own trend. Over the last two decades, each time this measure rose above the threshold range, it was followed by a decline in GDP growth. The latter was greater when accompanied by a high physical asset value to GDP, e.g., an elevated property market.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"10 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-09-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.345
Paras Kharel
Amid a general rise in protectionism and a trade war between the world's two largest economies, this paper analyzes changes in gains from trade for the world over a decade marked by rapid global economic integration preceding the global financial crisis of 2007-08. It employs state-of-the-art quantitative trade models based on the gravity equation to estimate autarky gains from trade, as well as a recently introduced ANOVA-type structural estimation of the gravity equation to obtain trade costs free of residual trade cost bias. Between 1995 and 2006, the cost of moving to autarky increased by about 45% on average. A decomposition exercise suggests most of the increase in autarky gains from trade on average was due to increases in import shares in total spending, with a limited role for reallocations of spending across sectors with varied trade elasticities. Changes in trade costs between 1995 and 2006 are found to have increased autarky gains from trade, as measured in 2006, by up to 100%.
{"title":"Dissecting Gains from Trade: Changes in Welfare Cost of Autarky*","authors":"Paras Kharel","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.345","url":null,"abstract":"Amid a general rise in protectionism and a trade war between the world's two largest economies, this paper analyzes changes in gains from trade for the world over a decade marked by rapid global economic integration preceding the global financial crisis of 2007-08. It employs state-of-the-art quantitative trade models based on the gravity equation to estimate autarky gains from trade, as well as a recently introduced ANOVA-type structural estimation of the gravity equation to obtain trade costs free of residual trade cost bias. Between 1995 and 2006, the cost of moving to autarky increased by about 45% on average. A decomposition exercise suggests most of the increase in autarky gains from trade on average was due to increases in import shares in total spending, with a limited role for reallocations of spending across sectors with varied trade elasticities. Changes in trade costs between 1995 and 2006 are found to have increased autarky gains from trade, as measured in 2006, by up to 100%.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"53 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138517178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-09-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.347
Hyuk-Jae Rhee, Jeongseok Song
This paper discusses the design of monetary policy in a New Keynesian small open economy framework by introducing nominal wage rigidities and incomplete exchange rate pass-through on import prices. Three main findings are summarized. First, with the existence of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through and nominal wage rigidities, the optimal policy is to seek to minimize the output gap, the variance of domestic price and wage inflation, as well as deviations from the law of one price. Second, the CPI inflation targeting Taylor rule is welfare enhancing when there is a technological shock to the economy. The exception occurs when there is a foreign income shock, which minimizes welfare losses under the domestic inflation targeting Taylor rule. Last, two stylized Taylor rules turn out to be a bad approximation, but the modified Taylor rules that respond to the unemployment gap rather than the output gap are a closer approximation to the optimal policy.
{"title":"Exchange Rate Pass-through, Nominal Wage Rigidities, and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy","authors":"Hyuk-Jae Rhee, Jeongseok Song","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.3.347","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses the design of monetary policy in a New Keynesian small open economy framework by introducing nominal wage rigidities and incomplete exchange rate pass-through on import prices. Three main findings are summarized. First, with the existence of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through and nominal wage rigidities, the optimal policy is to seek to minimize the output gap, the variance of domestic price and wage inflation, as well as deviations from the law of one price. Second, the CPI inflation targeting Taylor rule is welfare enhancing when there is a technological shock to the economy. The exception occurs when there is a foreign income shock, which minimizes welfare losses under the domestic inflation targeting Taylor rule. Last, two stylized Taylor rules turn out to be a bad approximation, but the modified Taylor rules that respond to the unemployment gap rather than the output gap are a closer approximation to the optimal policy.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-06-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.340
KeukJe Sung
WTO was established in 1995 and as many as 36 new members joined WTO until December 2017. Thus it would be interesting to see if new members have committed higher or lower levels of market opening compared to the original members. In this regard, a sophisticated scoring scheme is needed to quantify market opening commitments. After proper econometric model is established for the original members, same model can be applied to the new members for comparison. It was found that new members committed a much higher level of commitment than the original members. In addition, it was also found that transition economies committed higher levels than the non-transition economies. More interesting finding is that among the new members, the larger the economies or the larger the trading volume are, the closer was the level of commitment to the predicted level. Then the question is whether this difference was due to benign neglect by the new members or due to malign select by the original members.
{"title":"Benign Neglect or Malign Select?: Entry Cost to GATS/WTO","authors":"KeukJe Sung","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.340","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.340","url":null,"abstract":"WTO was established in 1995 and as many as 36 new members joined WTO until December 2017. Thus it would be interesting to see if new members have committed higher or lower levels of market opening compared to the original members. In this regard, a sophisticated scoring scheme is needed to quantify market opening commitments. After proper econometric model is established for the original members, same model can be applied to the new members for comparison. It was found that new members committed a much higher level of commitment than the original members. In addition, it was also found that transition economies committed higher levels than the non-transition economies. More interesting finding is that among the new members, the larger the economies or the larger the trading volume are, the closer was the level of commitment to the predicted level. Then the question is whether this difference was due to benign neglect by the new members or due to malign select by the original members.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Comparison Analysis of Monetary Policy Effect Under an Open Economy Model","authors":"Keun Yeong Lee","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2018.22.2.341","url":null,"abstract":"The paper analyzes and compares the effects of domestic monetary policy using DSGE, DSGE-VAR, and VAR based on a two-country open economy model of...","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"11 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2018-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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