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Does volatility mediate the impact of analyst recommendations on herding in Malaysian stock market? 波动率是否介导了分析师建议对马来西亚股市羊群效应的影响?
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.4.4
Ooi Kok Loang, Zamri Ahmad
Abstract This study examines the mediating role of volatility on the relationship between analyst recommendations and herding in the Malaysian stock market by using data from 2010 to 2020. Volatility is measured by realized volatility and the Parkinson estimator. The empirical evidence suggests that herding exists and realized volatility intervenes in the direct relationship between analyst recommendations and herding. The release of analyst recommendations causes realized volatility to fluctuate and investors are triggered by the volatility, which in turn follow the crowd to herd. Nonetheless, the Parkinson estimator is found to be insignificant, which infers that investors have anchor bias and rely on previous day stock prices to trade and herd. This paper provides an alternative explanation to the direct relationship and enhances the study of information-based herding. It contributes to academicians, practitioners, investors and policymakers to understand the herding of investors in responding to the arrival of new information.
摘要本研究利用2010年至2020年的数据,检验波动性对马来西亚股票市场分析师推荐与羊群效应之间关系的中介作用。波动率由实现波动率和帕金森估计量测量。实证证据表明,羊群效应存在,已实现波动率干预了分析师推荐与羊群效应的直接关系。分析师建议的发布导致已实现波动率的波动,投资者被波动率所触发,进而跟风从众。尽管如此,帕金森估计量被发现是不显著的,这推断投资者有锚偏差,并依赖前一天的股票价格进行交易和羊群。本文为这种直接关系提供了另一种解释,加强了对信息羊群的研究。它有助于学者、从业者、投资者和政策制定者了解投资者对新信息的反应。
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引用次数: 4
A synthesis of evolutionary and behavioural economics 进化经济学和行为经济学的综合
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.3.3
J. Polowczyk
Abstract The article presents the current state of evolutionary economics against the backdrop of changes related to the potential use of the achievements of other social sciences, in particular psychology, as well as dynamically developing neuroscience. The article suggests a synthesis of evolutionary and behavioural economics concepts as a logical consequence of evolutionary cooperation processes in social sciences. Interdisciplinary initiatives create new perspectives on generation synergy effects for all participants. Contemporary evolutionary economists present the nature of ongoing innovation-driven economic change as a long evolutionary process. The main creator of the econosphere as a global system is a man–entrepreneur who is also the result of evolutionary processes. For this reason evolutionary economics should take into account the results of behavioural economics’ research based on modern psychology and neuro-science. The cornerstone of evolutionary and behavioural economics synthesis are the theories of Adam Smith which should be regarded as his holistic intellectual heritage.
本文介绍了进化经济学在其他社会科学(特别是心理学)以及动态发展的神经科学成果的潜在应用变化背景下的现状。本文建议将进化经济学和行为经济学概念综合起来,作为社会科学中进化合作过程的逻辑结果。跨学科倡议为所有参与者创造了发电协同效应的新视角。当代进化经济学家将持续创新驱动的经济变革的本质视为一个长期的进化过程。作为一个全球系统的经济圈的主要创造者是一个人类企业家,他也是进化过程的结果。因此,进化经济学应该考虑以现代心理学和神经科学为基础的行为经济学的研究成果。进化经济学和行为经济学综合的基石是亚当·斯密的理论,这应该被视为他的整体知识遗产。
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引用次数: 1
Analysis of the relationship between countercyclical capital buffer and performance and risk indicators of the banking sector 逆周期资本缓冲与银行业绩效及风险指标的关系分析
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.3.7
F. Yıldırım
Abstract This study aims to explain the association between the quarterly data obtained over the period 2007: Q2–2020: Q3 for Turkey and the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) proposed within the framework of Basel III with banking performance and risk indicators. For this purpose the association among the variables was analyzed using the ARDL model and by performing the Toda Yamamoto (T-Y) causality test. According to the analysis results, it was determined that the CCyB has a statistically significant and positive relationship with the capital adequacy indicators of the banks in the long-run, however, it has a statistically significant and negative relationship with the asset quality risk and currency risk indicators. In the short-run it was determined that the CCyB has a statistically significant and positive relationship with the capital adequacy, profitability and liquidity indicators and similar to the long-term relationship, it has a statistically significant and negative relationship with the asset quality risk and exchange rate risk indicators. According to the causality test results, a statistically significant and unilateral causality running from the indicators of capital adequacy, asset quality and exchange rate risk to the CCyB was detected. The obtained estimation results indicate that the CCyB can be increased by policymakers during the periods when the performance indicators of the banking sector rise, whereas can be decreased by policymakers during the periods when the risk indicators of the sector rise. Furthermore, the results of the study asserted that the CCyB was an appropriate instrument for mitigating the macroeconomic and systemic risks for Turkey.
本研究旨在解释土耳其2007年第二季度至2020年第三季度期间获得的季度数据与巴塞尔协议III框架内提出的银行绩效和风险指标的逆周期资本缓冲(CCyB)之间的关联。为此,使用ARDL模型和执行Toda Yamamoto (T-Y)因果检验来分析变量之间的关联。根据分析结果,确定CCyB与银行资本充足率指标长期呈统计学显著正相关,而与资产质量风险和货币风险指标呈统计学显著负相关。在短期内,我们确定CCyB与资本充足率、盈利能力和流动性指标具有统计显著的正相关关系,与长期关系类似,它与资产质量风险和汇率风险指标具有统计显著的负相关关系。根据因果检验结果,从资本充足率指标、资产质量指标和汇率风险指标对CCyB存在统计显著的单边因果关系。所得估计结果表明,在银行业绩效指标上升期间,政策制定者可以增加CCyB,而在银行业风险指标上升期间,政策制定者可以降低CCyB。此外,研究结果表明,CCyB是减轻土耳其宏观经济和系统风险的适当工具。
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引用次数: 1
Distortionary effects of economic crises on policy coordination in Turkey: Threshold GMM approach 经济危机对土耳其政策协调的扭曲效应:阈值GMM方法
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.3.6
Metin Teti̇k, M. Yıldırım
Abstract This study investigates the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies and how crises affect the coordination between policymakers in Turkey. This study’s novelty is that a nonlinear Taylor rule indicating monetary policy response function is estimated based on the Threshold Generalized Method of Moments (Threshold GMM) methodology over the period January 2006—March 2020. The empirical findings reveal that when fiscal policy has an expansionary stage, especially in crises times, the policy interest rate does not react significantly to the inflation gap, output gap and real effective exchange rate gap in expansionary periods. On the contrary the policy interest rate gives statistically important responses to these variables during contractionary fiscal policy periods. Thus, the effectiveness of the Taylor rule appears in a period of contractionary fiscal policy. This situation gives rise to the significant policy implication that the monetary policymaker’s success in controlling inflation increases with the contractionary fiscal policy. Finally, it has been observed that effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policies did not occur during crisis periods, but compatible coordination was achieved in other periods.
摘要本研究探讨了土耳其财政和货币政策之间的相互作用,以及危机如何影响政策制定者之间的协调。本研究的新颖之处在于,在2006年1月至2020年3月期间,根据阈值广义矩量法(Threshold GMM)方法估计了一个非线性泰勒规则,该规则表明货币政策响应函数。实证结果表明,当财政政策处于扩张期时,特别是在危机时期,政策利率对扩张期通胀缺口、产出缺口和实际有效汇率缺口的反应不显著。相反,在紧缩财政政策期间,政策利率对这些变量给出了统计上重要的响应。因此,泰勒规则的有效性出现在紧缩财政政策时期。这种情况产生了一个重要的政策暗示,即货币政策制定者在控制通胀方面的成功随着紧缩的财政政策而增加。最后,我们观察到,在危机时期,货币政策和财政政策之间没有发生有效的协调,但在其他时期却实现了相容的协调。
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引用次数: 0
What did it take for Lucas to set up ‘useful’ analogue systems in monetary business cycle theory? 卢卡斯是如何在货币经济周期理论中建立起“有用的”模拟系统的?
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.3.5
Peter Galbács
Abstract This paper provides a look into what Lucas meant by the term ‘analogue systems’ and how he conceived making them useful. It is argued that any model with remarkable predictive success can be regarded as an analogue system, the term is thus neutral in terms of usefulness. To be useful Lucas supposed models to meet further requirements. These prerequisites are introduced in two steps in the paper. First, some properties of ‘useless’ Keynesian macroeconometric models come to the fore as contrasting cases. Second, it is argued that Lucas suggested two assumptions as the keys to usefulness for he conceived them as referring to genuine components of social reality and hence as true propositions. One is money as a causal instrument and the other is the choice-theoretic framework to describe the causal mechanisms underlying large-scale fluctuations. Extensive quotes from Lucas’s unpublished materials underpin the claims.
本文提供了一个看卢卡斯的意思是什么术语“模拟系统”,以及他是如何构思使他们有用。有人认为,任何具有显著预测成功的模型都可以被视为模拟系统,因此该术语在有用性方面是中性的。为了更有用,卢卡斯假设了一些模型来满足进一步的需求。本文分两步介绍了这些前提条件。首先,“无用的”凯恩斯宏观计量经济学模型的一些特性作为对比案例脱颖而出。其次,有人认为卢卡斯提出了两个假设作为有用性的关键,因为他认为它们是指社会现实的真正组成部分,因此是真命题。一个是货币作为因果工具,另一个是描述大规模波动背后因果机制的选择理论框架。大量引用卢卡斯未发表的材料来支持这种说法。
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引用次数: 0
Economic fluctuations in a model with an overlapping structure of employment 就业重叠结构模型中的经济波动
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.3.2
Toyoki Matsue
Abstract This study presents a dynamic general equilibrium model with an explicit employment period and investigates economic fluctuations to a temporary productivity shock. Numerical experiments indicate oscillatory responses of new hiring and employment to the shock which are not observed in a standard flexible price model. The explicit employment period constructs an overlapping structure of employment which results in the oscillatory response. This study also examines the effects of change in employment period to economic fluctuations and shows that the variations in new hiring are higher when the employment period is long.
摘要本文提出了一个具有明确就业期的动态一般均衡模型,并考察了经济波动对暂时性生产率冲击的影响。数值实验表明,新雇佣和就业对冲击的振荡反应在标准的弹性价格模型中没有观察到。显性就业期构建了一个重叠的就业结构,导致了振荡反应。本研究还考察了就业期变化对经济波动的影响,并表明就业期越长,新雇佣的变化越大。
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引用次数: 0
Financial sustainability: An annotated bibliography 财务可持续性:注释书目
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.3.4
Shivam Kakati, Arup Roy
Abstract The literature on financial sustainability is scattered in such a way that a synthesis is indispensable. The present study on an annotated bibliography of financial sustainability seeks to fill this particular gap by presenting a collation of published literature in the sphere. The sectorial analysis depicted that ability to cover the costs from its own resources and ability to pay debt were the key dimensions to measure financial sustainability. The majority of the studies were found in the public sector covering local governments and central governments particularly in such European countries as Spain, Italy and England. Earning enough resources, asset sustainability and the ability to repay obligations are the three dimensions to assess financial sustainability. The study also pointed out the key research areas, variables and analytical tools among other trends in the literature. The present study assists the future researchers in reviewing the literature on financial sustainability and developing research methodology.
摘要关于财务可持续性的文献是分散的,综合是必不可少的。目前对财务可持续性注释书目的研究旨在通过对该领域已发表的文献进行整理来填补这一特殊空白。部门分析表明,用自身资源支付成本的能力和偿还债务的能力是衡量财务可持续性的关键方面。大多数研究都是在公共部门进行的,包括地方政府和中央政府,特别是在西班牙、意大利和英国等欧洲国家。获得足够的资源、资产的可持续性和偿还债务的能力是评估财务可持续性的三个维度。研究还指出了重点研究领域、变量和分析工具等文献趋势。本研究有助于未来研究人员回顾财务可持续性的文献并发展研究方法。
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引用次数: 5
The impact of environmental, social and corporate governance responsibility on the cost of short-and long-term debt 环境、社会和公司治理责任对短期和长期债务成本的影响
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.2.6
Piotr Ratajczak, Grzegorz Mikołajewicz
Abstract The aim of the paper is to examine the impact of environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) responsibility on the short- and long-term cost of debt. Linear regression was applied to a unique dataset on CSR and cost of debt for 300 companies recognized in 2017 by Corporate Knights as the most sustainable companies in the world. The question about the link between CSR and cost of debt is important as there is still ongoing debate as to whether business should undertake activities in the field of CSR—managers and other stakeholders are still unsure of the outcomes. The findings show that the involvement in environmental issues decreases the cost of long-term debt whereas the involvement in social issues brings benefits to short- and long-term debt. Surprisingly the greater the involvement in corporate governance, the higher the cost of debt in all time horizons. Managers should expect a lower cost of debt from environmental and social activities mostly in the long run. Corporate governance expenditures may in turn be seen as a waste of company resources, cost of forgone opportunities, or—optionally—as an over-investment. The main novelty is the breakdown of CSR into three dimensions while examining various term structures of corporate debt.
摘要本文的目的是研究环境、社会和公司治理(ESG)责任对债务短期和长期成本的影响。我们对2017年被Corporate Knights评为全球最具可持续性公司的300家公司的社会责任和债务成本的独特数据集进行了线性回归。企业社会责任与债务成本之间的联系问题很重要,因为关于企业是否应该在企业社会责任领域开展活动的争论仍在继续——管理者和其他利益相关者仍然不确定结果。研究结果表明,参与环境问题降低了长期债务的成本,而参与社会问题对短期和长期债务都有好处。令人惊讶的是,在所有时间范围内,参与公司治理的程度越高,债务成本就越高。从长期来看,管理者应该期望从环境和社会活动中获得较低的债务成本。公司治理支出可能反过来被视为对公司资源的浪费,放弃机会的成本,或者——作为一种过度投资。主要的新颖之处在于,在研究企业债务的各种期限结构时,将企业社会责任分解为三个维度。
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引用次数: 9
Small area quantile estimation based on distribution function using linear mixed models 基于线性混合模型分布函数的小面积分位数估计
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.2.7
Tomasz Stachurski
Abstract In economic studies researchers are often interested in the estimation of the distribution function or certain functions of the distribution function such as quantiles. This work focuses on the estimation quantiles as inverses of the estimates of the distribution function in the presence of auxiliary information that is correlated with the study variable. In the paper a plug-in estimator of the distribution function is proposed which is used to obtain quantiles in the population and in the small areas. Performance of the proposed method is compared with other estimators of the distribution function and quantiles using the simulation study. The obtained results show that the proposed method usually has smaller relative biases and relative RMSE comparing to other methods of obtaining quantiles based on inverting the distribution function.
在经济研究中,研究人员经常对分布函数或分布函数的某些函数(如分位数)的估计感兴趣。这项工作的重点是在与研究变量相关的辅助信息存在的情况下,作为分布函数估计的逆的估计分位数。本文提出了一种分布函数的插入式估计器,用于获得总体和小区域的分位数。通过仿真研究,将该方法的性能与其他分布函数和分位数估计方法进行了比较。结果表明,与其他基于分布函数反求的分位数方法相比,该方法具有较小的相对偏差和相对RMSE。
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引用次数: 0
On some analogies between one-criterion decision making under uncertainty and multi-criteria decision making under certainty 不确定条件下的单准则决策与确定条件下的多准则决策的类比
IF 0.7 Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2021.2.3
Helena Gaspars-Wieloch
Abstract One-criterion decision making under uncertainty (1-DM/U) is related to situations in which the decision maker (DM) evaluates the alternatives on the basis of one objective, but e.g. due to numerous uncertain future factors some parameters of the problem are not deterministic. Instead of entirely known paramaters, a set of possible scenarios is available. Multi-criteria decision making under certainty (M-DM/C) concerns cases where the DM assesses particular options in terms of many objectives. The parameters are known. Therefore, scenario planning is redundant. Both issues are investigated by many researchers and practitioners, since real economic decision problems are usually at least uncertain or multi-objective. In the paper, numerous analogies between 1-DM/U and M-DM/C are revealed. Some of them have existed for many decades, but others, so far, have not been developed. A careful examination of all the similarities enables an improvement of existing methods and a formulation of new algorithms for 1-DM/U and M-DM/C. The article presents six pairs of similar procedures and contains the description of three novel approaches created by analogy to existing ones.
不确定条件下的单准则决策(one -criterion decision making under uncertainty, 1-DM/U)是指决策者在一个目标的基础上对备选方案进行评估,但由于未来的诸多不确定因素,问题的某些参数是不确定的。不是完全已知的参数,而是一组可能的场景。确定性下的多标准决策(M-DM/C)涉及决策管理根据许多目标评估特定选项的情况。参数是已知的。因此,场景规划是多余的。这两个问题都被许多研究人员和实践者调查,因为实际的经济决策问题通常至少是不确定的或多目标的。本文揭示了1-DM/U和M-DM/C之间的许多类比。其中一些已经存在了几十年,但其他的,到目前为止,还没有开发。仔细检查所有相似之处,可以改进现有方法,并制定1-DM/U和M-DM/C的新算法。本文介绍了六对类似的程序,并描述了通过类比现有方法创建的三种新方法。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Economics and Business Review
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