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2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)最新文献

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Optimal dispatch of wind farms facing market prices 面对市场价格的风电场优化调度
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981871
Gilles Bertrand, A. Papavasiliou
At present, wind power producers (WPP) are paid following feed-in tariffs in Belgium. This system will come to an end soon due to its high cost and the producers will have to bid in the day-ahead market. As wind owners cannot forecast their production perfectly, they will face imbalance costs or revenues. Imbalance price forecasting is therefore a critical problem. In this paper, we implement a machine learning model to assess the usefulness of introducing exogenous variables in imbalance price forecasting. This method shows improved results compared to classical methods. Since the imbalance price is obtained by the marginal cost of producing the missing energy, the strategic behaviour of a WPP will influence the imbalance price. In this paper, we propose a way to represent this influence as well as a formulation of a model to obtain the optimal bidding strategy in that situation. This model has been cast as a convex quadratic program that can readily be solved using a commercial solver.
目前,在比利时,风力发电生产商(WPP)是按照上网电价支付的。由于成本过高,这一系统将很快结束,生产商将不得不在前一天的市场上竞标。由于风电业主无法完美地预测其产量,他们将面临成本或收入的不平衡。因此,不平衡价格预测是一个关键问题。在本文中,我们实现了一个机器学习模型来评估引入外生变量在不平衡价格预测中的有用性。与传统方法相比,该方法的结果有所改善。由于不平衡价格是由生产缺失能源的边际成本获得的,因此WPP的战略行为将影响不平衡价格。在本文中,我们提出了一种表示这种影响的方法,并提出了在这种情况下获得最优投标策略的模型。该模型已被转换为凸二次规划,可以很容易地使用商业求解器求解。
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引用次数: 3
Modelling of demand response for utility's loac forecasting 电力公司电力预测的需求响应建模
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981985
Smita Lokhande, Vishnu P. Menon, Y. Bichpuriya
In the new era of electrical power industry with more emphasis on green energy resources and active customer participation, the distribution utilities (DISCOMs) are being challenged. Being an important link between wholesale and retail electricity markets, these DISCOMs are exposed to risks on both sides. Under such circumstances, they are looking for new analytics to optimize operations and maximize profits. Load forecasting is one such predictive analytics used by DISCOMs to minimize risks. With increasing level of penetration of intermittent wind and solar energy in the generation at bulk as well as distributed level, both supply and demand have become uncertain. With certain benefits and incentives offered to the customers, demand can be made flexible and controllable in nature. Such flexible demand can help in minimizing the demand supply gap. Also the response of load is faster than the conventional generation resources which have machine inertia. Flexible demand is thus one of vital feature of future grid. Demand Response (DR) can be considered as a way to utilize this flexibility of load by adjusting the consumption profile thus assisting in dealing with the increased uncertainty and improving the power system operational efficiency. With the DR programs implemented, the DISCOMs will now have to forecast not only the demand of electricity but the net demand adjusted after accommodating demand response. In this paper, we analyse the impact of DR on the net demand profile of DISCOM considering the end consumers with varying demand profiles and varying preferences. We propose a new approach to forecast demand with modelling of the DR. The proposed approach gives a Probability Density Forecast (PDF) of demand using a non-parametric approach based on Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). The proposed model will help DISCOMs for developing demand bidding strategies in a market where DR programs are being implemented.
在强调绿色能源和用户积极参与的电力工业新时代,配电公司面临着挑战。作为连接电力批发市场和零售市场的重要纽带,discom面临着双方的风险。在这种情况下,他们正在寻找新的分析方法来优化运营和最大化利润。负荷预测就是DISCOMs用来降低风险的一种预测分析方法。随着间歇性风能和太阳能在散装和分布式发电中的渗透水平不断提高,供需都变得不确定。为客户提供一定的利益和激励,可以使需求具有灵活性和可控性。这种灵活的需求有助于最小化供需缺口。负载的响应速度也比传统的有机械惯性的发电资源快。灵活需求是未来电网的重要特征之一。需求响应(DR)可以被认为是通过调整消耗概况来利用负载灵活性的一种方法,从而帮助处理增加的不确定性并提高电力系统的运行效率。随着DR项目的实施,DISCOMs现在不仅要预测电力需求,还要预测在适应需求响应后调整的净需求。在本文中,我们分析了DR对DISCOM净需求概况的影响,考虑了不同需求概况和不同偏好的终端消费者。我们提出了一种利用dr建模预测需求的新方法,该方法使用基于核密度估计(KDE)的非参数方法给出了需求的概率密度预测(PDF)。所提出的模型将帮助DISCOMs在实施DR项目的市场中制定需求投标策略。
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引用次数: 3
Ancillary services: Between the need for a market and decentral business cases 辅助服务:在市场需求和分散的业务案例之间
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981965
Judith Litzenburger
In an energy system where the share of renewable energies is increasing, the shape of Ancillary Service needs to change. Due to the weather dependency of wind and solar power the system has to be able to react in two ways. Fast, in cases of unforeseen changes on the supply side and long-term in times where there is not enough wind and sun available to cover the load during a period. So the value of flexibility as an Ancillary Service rises. Today the Energy Only Market (EOM) hardly provides a market for flexibility, but business cases for such Ancillary Services will be crucial for the upcoming system. Focusing on Demand Side Management the essay analyses how a market for this kind of Ancillary Service could be designed. It is based on the study “Demand Side Management in North Rhine-Westphalia: Potentials, Obstacles and Options for Action” [1].
在可再生能源所占份额不断增加的能源系统中,辅助服务的形式需要改变。由于风能和太阳能对天气的依赖性,该系统必须能够以两种方式作出反应。快速,在供应方面不可预见的变化的情况下,在没有足够的风和太阳可以覆盖一段时间内的负荷的时候。因此,作为一项辅助服务,灵活性的价值上升了。目前,纯能源市场(EOM)很难为灵活性提供市场,但此类辅助服务的业务案例将对即将推出的系统至关重要。本文以需求侧管理为重点,分析了如何设计这类辅助服务的市场。本文基于研究“北莱茵-威斯特伐利亚州需求侧管理:潜力、障碍和行动选择”[1]。
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引用次数: 0
How to improve standard load profiles: Updating, regionalization and smart meter data 如何改进标准负荷概况:更新、区域化和智能电表数据
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981939
D. Scholz, F. Müsgens
Currently, most distribution system operators in Germany estimate non-real-time metered consumption profiles based on “Standard Load Profiles” developed in the late 1990s by the German Association of Energy and Water Industries. However, as both consumption behavior and consumer structure change over time, their predictive power may have deteriorated. In addition, they do not account for regional differences within Germany. Therefore, we compared their forecasting accuracy with two newly developed alternative standard load profiles, differentiating between households and commercial enterprises. We calculated the new profiles based on regional, more up-to-date aggregated consumption data and a limited set of smart meter data. Furthermore, we varied the number of seasons and day types included in the profiles. A comparison of our new load profiles with the existing Standard Load Profiles revealed significant improvements in forecasting accuracy. Improvements are mainly resulting from improved input data (regional and more recent data set), but the utilization of smart meter data as well as variations in day types and seasons also reduced forecast errors.
目前,德国大多数配电系统运营商根据德国能源和水工业协会在20世纪90年代末开发的“标准负荷分布图”估计非实时计量消费分布图。然而,随着时间的推移,消费行为和消费结构都发生了变化,它们的预测能力可能会下降。此外,它们没有考虑到德国内部的地区差异。因此,我们将他们的预测精度与两种新开发的替代标准负荷曲线进行了比较,区分了家庭和商业企业。我们根据区域、最新的汇总消费数据和有限的智能电表数据,计算出了新的概况。此外,我们还改变了季节和日类型的数量。我们的新负荷配置文件与现有的标准负荷配置文件的比较显示,在预测精度显著提高。改进主要来自改进的输入数据(区域和最近的数据集),但智能电表数据的利用以及日类型和季节的变化也减少了预测误差。
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引用次数: 9
Interdependencies of harmonised procurement of manually and automatically activated FRR in selected Central European balancing markets 在选定的中欧平衡市场中手动和自动激活FRR协调采购的相互依赖性
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981919
B. Burgholzer
High shares of renewable electricity generation requires robust balancing measures and procedures in the electricity system. There are several electricity balancing pilot projects having already been started or will start in the near future. The work presented in this paper focuses on projects with the geographic scope of Central Europe. This includes the common activation of automatic Frequency Restoration Reserve (aFRR) in Austria and Germany as well as the common procurement of aFRR in the above-mentioned area, which is planned to start mid-2017. The start for common procurement and activation of manually activated Frequency Restoration Reserve (mFRR) has not yet been published, but will also be analysed within this work. In addition, the impact of a further extension of the common balancing area to Belgium and The Netherlands is analysed. The focus of the study is on how common procurement of aFRR and mFRR influences wholesale electricity market clearings and how it interferes each other. The quantitative results confirm that common procurement of balancing capacity (aFRR and mFRR) in the simulated region has significant advantages in terms of cost reduction, CO2 emissions and increased flexibility in the electricity system. Furthermore, the common procurement of mFRR interferes the procurement costs of aFRR in a positive way, meaning that further reductions can be achieved.
可再生能源发电的高份额需要在电力系统中采取强有力的平衡措施和程序。有几个电力平衡试点项目已经开始或将在不久的将来开始。本文所介绍的工作侧重于中欧地理范围内的项目。这包括在奥地利和德国共同启动自动频率恢复储备(aFRR),以及在上述地区共同采购aFRR,计划于2017年年中开始。共同采购和激活手动激活频率恢复储备(mFRR)的开始尚未公布,但也将在本工作中进行分析。此外,还分析了进一步扩大共同平衡区对比利时和荷兰的影响。研究的重点是aFRR和mFRR的常见采购如何影响批发电力市场结算,以及它们如何相互干扰。定量结果证实,在模拟区域内共同采购平衡容量(aFRR和mFRR)在降低成本、二氧化碳排放和增加电力系统灵活性方面具有显著优势。此外,mFRR的共同采购以积极的方式干扰了afr的采购成本,这意味着可以实现进一步的削减。
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引用次数: 0
Regional effects of hydrogen production in congested transmission grids with wind and hydro power 拥挤的风力和水力输电网中氢气生产的区域效应
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7982013
E. F. B⊘dal, M. Korpås
Some of the best wind and natural gas resources in Norway are located in rural areas. Hydrogen can be produced from natural gas in combination with carbon capture and storage to utilize the natural gas resources without significant CO2-emissions. The hydrogen can be liquefied and transported to regions with energy deficits. This creates a demand for hydrogen produced from electrolysis of water, which facilitates wind power development without requiring large investments in new transmission capacity. A regional optimization model is developed and used to investigate sizing of the electrolyser capacity and hydrogen storage, as well as regional effects of producing hydrogen from electrolysis. In the model, the transmission grid is represented by dc power flow equations and opportunities for wind power investments in the region are included. The model is used in a case study which shows that hydrogen storage contributes to significantly increase grid utilization, even with small amounts of storage. Increased regional transmission capacity results in more wind power development compared to increased capacity towards the central grid. Hydrogen storage is only profitable to reduce congestion in this deterministic model, thus using hydrogen storage to reduce the costs in the spot market is not profitable.
挪威一些最好的风能和天然气资源位于农村地区。氢气可以从天然气中生产,并结合碳捕获和储存,以利用天然气资源,而不会产生大量的二氧化碳排放。氢气可以液化并运输到能源不足的地区。这就产生了对水电解制氢的需求,这有利于风力发电的发展,而不需要在新的输电能力上进行大量投资。建立了一个区域优化模型,用于研究电解槽容量和储氢量的大小,以及电解制氢的区域效应。在该模型中,输电网用直流潮流方程表示,并考虑了该地区风电投资的机会。该模型在一个案例研究中得到了应用,该案例研究表明,即使只有少量的储存,氢储存也能显著提高电网的利用率。与增加的中央电网容量相比,增加的区域输电能力导致更多的风力发电发展。在这种确定性模型中,储氢只对减少拥堵有利,而利用储氢来降低现货市场的成本是不有利的。
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引用次数: 8
Willingess to pay for green energy: An agent-based model in NetLogo platform 为绿色能源付费的意愿:NetLogo平台中基于代理的模型
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981943
A. Kowalska-Pyzalska
In the paper the consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for green energy is discussed. Based on the literature review and the findings from the pilot study a simple agent-based model in Netlogo is created to examine the development of the WTP towards renewables (RES) among consumers. The model shows that to increase positive appraisal of green energy and hence encourage consumers to support the development of RES, some external incentives are necessary. Hence, promoting advantages of renewables and making consumers more familiar with them, as well as offering some financial support may play a great role.
本文讨论了消费者对绿色能源的支付意愿。基于文献综述和试点研究的结果,在Netlogo中创建了一个简单的基于代理的模型,以检查消费者对可再生能源(RES)的WTP的发展。该模型表明,为了提高对绿色能源的正面评价,从而鼓励消费者支持可再生能源的发展,需要一些外部激励措施。因此,宣传可再生能源的优势,让消费者更熟悉可再生能源,以及提供一些资金支持可能会起到很大的作用。
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引用次数: 9
Comparison of the techno-economic characteristics of different flexibility options in the European energy system 欧洲能源系统中不同灵活性选择的技术经济特征比较
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981983
J. Michaelis, T. Müller, U. Reiter, F. Fermi, A. Wyrwa, Yi-kuang Chen, Christoph Zöphel, Nicolas Kronthaler, Rainer Elsland
The electricity supply will become more volatile in energy systems with increasing shares of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). Since electricity demand varies as does the supply by RES, the remaining residual load must be covered by flexible technologies that are required to balance the different types of fluctuations. In this study, these flexibility options are divided into three categories: increasing the residual load, decreasing the residual load and shifting the electricity demand / supply temporally or spatially. Furthermore, typical technological options are discussed for each category, and four flexibility criteria are used to compare their technical and economic characteristics. These include the activation time, duration of flexibility provision, number of activations and activation costs. The study reveals that various options exist and no one technology dominates. However, within the flexibility categories, it can be shown that some appliances have advantages in three of the four categories compared to the other options. Ultimately, the choice of the most appropriate flexibility option depends on the requirements of the energy system. It can be concluded that a mix of technologies will be needed to cover the future flexible demand that may include short-term changes of the residual load as well as long-term downturns of RES generation.
随着可再生能源(RES)份额的增加,电力供应将在能源系统中变得更加不稳定。由于电力需求和可再生能源的供应都在变化,因此必须采用灵活的技术来平衡不同类型的波动。在本研究中,这些灵活性选择分为三类:增加剩余负荷、减少剩余负荷和在时间或空间上转移电力需求/供应。在此基础上,对每一类的典型技术方案进行了讨论,并采用四个灵活性标准对其技术和经济特性进行了比较。这些因素包括激活时间、灵活性提供的持续时间、激活数量和激活成本。研究表明,存在多种选择,没有一种技术占主导地位。然而,在灵活性类别中,可以显示出与其他选项相比,某些设备在四个类别中的三个类别中具有优势。最终,选择最合适的灵活性选项取决于能源系统的要求。可以得出结论,将需要混合技术来满足未来的灵活需求,这些需求可能包括剩余负荷的短期变化以及可再生能源发电的长期低迷。
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引用次数: 15
Interconnector participation in capacity mechanisms: A new de-rating approach 互联者参与能力机制:一种新的降级方法
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981872
V. V. Vadlamudi, G. Doorman
In countries with Capacity Mechanisms in place, where Explicit Interconnector Participation model is to be used, one of the key market design questions to be answered is how the amount of interconnector capacity that is allowed to participate in the auctions should be determined. This paper argues for an interconnector capacity de-rating approach. In order for the de-rating factor to be representative of stochasticity inherent in the system, the concept of Interconnector Effective Load Carrying Capability is postulated in this paper. A method with probabilistic basis that allows for converting the name-plate capacity of a transmission line connecting two areas into a de-rated capacity is proposed. The proposed probabilistic methodology takes into account the technical availability of the line and captures the impact of simultaneous or co-incident scarcity. A simple case-study is presented to exemplify the proposed principle and methodology.
在有能力机制的国家,将使用明确的互联参与模式,需要回答的关键市场设计问题之一是如何确定允许参与拍卖的互联能力的数量。本文提出了一种互连器容量降级方法。为了使降级因子能够代表系统固有的随机性,本文提出了互连器有效承载能力的概念。提出了一种基于概率基础的方法,可以将连接两个区域的传输线的铭牌容量转换为降级容量。所提出的概率方法考虑了线路的技术可用性,并捕获了同时或同时发生的稀缺性的影响。通过一个简单的案例研究来说明所提出的原则和方法。
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引用次数: 1
A framework for ancillary services design 辅助服务设计框架
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7982008
Samuel Glismann, F. Nobel
In a fast changing electrical power sector the design of ancillary services is challenged and policy makers are required to take decisions on the adjustment of current ancillary services practices and on the introduction of new ancillary services. Even though ancillary services are crucial for the reliability of unbundled power systems, current literature does not provide a structured approach to describe and compare the design of different ancillary services. We propose a generic framework for ancillary service designs that allows for a comparative ancillary service assessment as a first step towards a comprehensive evaluation framework. Applicability of the framework and its generic design variables is shown by comparing ancillary services of different objectives and different regulatory areas.
在快速变化的电力行业中,辅助服务的设计受到挑战,政策制定者需要就调整当前的辅助服务做法和引入新的辅助服务作出决定。尽管辅助服务对非捆绑电力系统的可靠性至关重要,但目前的文献并没有提供一个结构化的方法来描述和比较不同辅助服务的设计。我们提出了一个辅助服务设计的通用框架,允许比较辅助服务评估作为迈向全面评估框架的第一步。通过比较不同目标和不同监管领域的辅助服务,表明了框架及其通用设计变量的适用性。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)
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