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2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)最新文献

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Evaluation of the effects of time-of-use pricing for private households based on measured load data 基于实测负荷数据的私人家庭分时电价效果评估
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981923
M. Hinterstocker, Paul Schott, Serafin von Roon
Based on measured load data in high temporal resolution, the time-dependent load shifting potential of residential electricity customers can be assessed. This enables the simulation of their reaction to different variable retail electricity rates, and consequently the evaluation of the suitability of these rate structures for various applications. The focus is on time-of-use rates with two price levels, which incentivize load shifting from high to low prices. The results show that this kind of rate structure is not the optimal choice for the examined applications; therefore, it is recommended to include additional rate elements like demand charges or peak pricing. However, the high computational effort suggests the development of a new rate optimization strategy for the introduction of additional parameters.
基于高时间分辨率的实测负荷数据,可以评估住宅用电用户随时间变化的负荷转移潜力。这样就可以模拟他们对不同可变零售电价的反应,从而评估这些费率结构对各种应用的适用性。重点是两个价格水平的分时电价,以激励负荷从高价向低价转移。结果表明,这种速率结构不是所研究应用的最优选择;因此,建议包括额外的费率元素,如需求收费或峰值定价。然而,由于计算量大,需要开发一种新的速率优化策略来引入额外的参数。
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引用次数: 11
Cross-impact balance as an approach for the development of consistent storylines for the European energy market 将交叉影响平衡作为欧洲能源市场发展的一种方法
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981933
Paul E. Kunz, S. Vögele
We present a structured scenario method for the development of transparent, plausible and consistent scenarios. By a case study on the development of European energy scenarios, the process of the Cross-Impact-Balance approach will be explained and challenges and advantages will be derived.
我们提出了一种结构化的场景方法,用于开发透明、合理和一致的场景。通过对欧洲能源情景发展的案例研究,将解释交叉影响平衡方法的过程,并推导出挑战和优势。
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引用次数: 2
Resilience in the German natural gas network: Modelling approach for a high-resolution natural gas system 德国天然气网络的弹性:高分辨率天然气系统的建模方法
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981942
Philipp Hauser, Hannes Hobbie, D. Möst
The German “Energiewende” aims at fostering a de-carbonisation of the entire energy system. In the electricity sector, a shift from traditionally nuclear and coal-based production towards renewable energies and lower carbon intensive gas power plants can be expected. Additionally, heat production from gas fuels will play a more dominant role. This results in a stronger dependence of the electrical power and heat sector on a reliable and secure operation of the underlying natural gas (NG) provision infrastructure. Growing uncertainties in the electricity and NG systems have in and of themselves been widely analysed. With this paper, we question how uncertainties in power and heat production development compromise the NG supply and thereby endanger energy security. We introduce a NG pipeline model with a detailed grid representation of northeast Germany. We utilise two representative days to model the NG demand differentiated by heat, industry and power sector consumption. Using a cost minimisation approach, we investigate possible congestions in the gas grid to assess if and to what extent NG pipelines can be seen as a crucial bottleneck for future energy security. Our results show the resilience of the NG system during a scenario of a MILD winter day. However, simultaneous NG demand peaks in the heat and power sector in the COLD scenario might lead to congestions in some regions.
德国的“能源转型”(Energiewende)旨在促进整个能源系统的去碳化。在电力部门,可以预期从传统的核能和煤炭生产转向可再生能源和低碳密集型天然气发电厂。此外,气体燃料产生的热量将发挥更大的作用。这导致电力和热力部门更加依赖于可靠和安全的底层天然气供应基础设施。电力和天然气系统中日益增长的不确定性已被广泛分析。在本文中,我们质疑电力和热力生产发展的不确定性如何损害天然气供应,从而危及能源安全。我们介绍了一个德国东北部的天然气管道模型,该模型具有详细的网格表示。我们利用两个有代表性的日子来模拟按热能、工业和电力部门消费区分的天然气需求。使用成本最小化方法,我们调查了天然气网中可能出现的拥堵,以评估天然气管道是否以及在多大程度上可以被视为未来能源安全的关键瓶颈。我们的研究结果显示了NG系统在一个温和的冬日场景中的弹性。然而,在冷情景下,供热和电力部门同时出现的天然气需求峰值可能会导致一些地区的拥堵。
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引用次数: 5
The accuracy of wind energy forecasts and prospects for improvement 风能预报的准确性及改进前景
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981986
K. Forbes, Ernest M. Zampelli
Wind energy forecast errors, while modest when weighted by wind energy capacity, are quite large relative to the average level of actual wind energy generation. For example, while the capacity weighted root mean squared error (CWRMSE) of day-ahead wind energy forecasts for the 50Hertz control area in Germany over the period 1 January 2015 through 31 December 2015 is just 4.5 percent, the energy-weighted root-mean-squared-error (EWRMSE) is almost five times as large at 21.67 percent. Our analysis also indicates that the errors in 50Hertz's wind energy forecasts are statistically related to forecasted weather conditions. Based on this finding and the time-series attributes of the forecast errors, an ARCH/ARMAX model was formulated to predict wind energy generation. The model's forecasting accuracy was evaluated using out-of-sample data over the period 1 January 2015 through 31 December 2015. The out-of-sample period-ahead predictions have a EWRMSE of about 2.93 percent and CWRMSE of about 0.60 percent.
风能预测的误差,虽然在风能容量加权时是适度的,但相对于实际风能发电的平均水平来说是相当大的。例如,2015年1月1日至2015年12月31日期间,德国50赫兹控制区风电预报的容量加权均方根误差(CWRMSE)仅为4.5%,而能量加权均方根误差(EWRMSE)几乎是前者的五倍,为21.67%。我们的分析还表明,50Hertz风能预测的误差在统计上与预测的天气状况有关。在此基础上,结合预测误差的时间序列属性,建立了预测风力发电的ARCH/ARMAX模型。使用2015年1月1日至2015年12月31日期间的样本外数据对模型的预测精度进行了评估。样本外周期预测的EWRMSE约为2.93%,CWRMSE约为0.60%。
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引用次数: 3
Capacity sharing — Economic analysis of home battery systems 容量共享。家用电池系统的经济分析
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981991
R. Dzikowski, B. Olek
This paper deals with home batteries and their economic viability under a service in which a prosumer possessing a roof-top PV system can purchase a battery system with the special price from an electricity provider and obtains annual fees for assumed time period. It is done in exchange for sharing some part of battery capacity with the entity. The aim of this study is to check whether it is economically viable from a prosumer perspective, basing on a service offered by one of the EU electricity providers. Authors do that by comparison of computed economic indicators in several prosumer system scenarios and by applying various commercially available solar home battery systems. Additionally, identification of selected conditions that should be satisfied to ensure the financial return from the investment in battery storage is provided. Apart from LCOE, relative annual cash flow is used as the economic indicator of financial outcome. The obtained results as well as conclusions pose the basis for further researches on development of economic models of dispersed home battery systems coupled with small renewable energy sources.
本文研究了一个拥有屋顶光伏系统的消费者可以从电力供应商那里以优惠价格购买电池系统,并在假设的时间段内获得年费的服务下,家用电池及其经济可行性。这样做是为了与实体共享部分电池容量。本研究的目的是检查它是否在经济上可行,从产消的角度来看,基于一个欧盟电力供应商提供的服务。作者通过比较几个产消系统场景的计算经济指标和应用各种商用太阳能家用电池系统来做到这一点。此外,还确定了应满足的选定条件,以确保电池存储投资的经济回报。除了LCOE,相对年度现金流量被用作财务结果的经济指标。所得结果和结论为进一步研究分散式家用电池系统与小型可再生能源耦合的经济模型的开发奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 3
Integrating balancing reserves and congestion management to re-balance the German system 整合平衡储备和拥塞管理,重新平衡德国系统
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7982014
J. Hörsch, Carla Mendes
The current electricity market is facing new challenges as the sector moves towards a low-carbon energy system. Germany's power system is currently moving to a regional concentration of electricity supply and demand, which increases network congestion. In order to solve possible contingencies, reserve requirements are used to ensure that enough energy is available to re-balance the system. However, this measure might not be reliable in congested systems. To that extent, zones are used to address inter-zonal congestion, but intra-zonal congestion is still a problem that lacks efficient ways to solve it. We focus on quantifying the benefit of managing intra-zonal congestion using tertiary reserve capacities and of additionally splitting the reserve market into zones. The results show that the combination of balancing and congestion market is the most efficient solution since it decreases the total reserve demand quantities needed to solve possible contingencies.
随着电力行业向低碳能源体系迈进,当前的电力市场正面临新的挑战。德国电力系统目前正在向电力供应和需求的区域集中发展,这加剧了网络拥堵。为了解决可能的突发事件,储备需求被用来确保有足够的能量来重新平衡系统。然而,这种方法在拥挤的系统中可能不可靠。在这种程度上,区域被用来解决区域间的拥塞,但区域内的拥塞仍然是一个缺乏有效解决方法的问题。我们专注于量化利用三级储备能力管理区域内拥堵的效益,并将储备市场划分为区域。结果表明,均衡市场与拥塞市场相结合是最有效的解决方案,因为它减少了解决可能的突发事件所需的总储备需求量。
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引用次数: 2
Designing retail tariffs to decarbonise the electricity system 设计零售电价以降低电力系统的碳排放
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7982022
L. Ryan, Sarah La Monaca, Linda Mastrandrea
Increasing recognition that current electricity retail tariffs are ill-adapted to future electricity systems and markets has motivated this paper to examine how retail tariffs need to be reformed to facilitate the energy transition. This paper reviews existing residential retail tariff structures and explores through case studies of Ireland, Italy, and California the implications of retail tariff structure and design for the policy targets of energy efficiency, renewable electricity generation, demand response, in addition to electricity system cost recovery. The research should add empirical insights to the body of academic literature on the subject and be of interest to policy makers wishing to consider retail tariff structures that promote decarbonisation of the electricity system through multiple objectives of improved energy efficiency and increased shares of renewable electricity with future electricity markets.
越来越多的人认识到,目前的电力零售关税不适应未来的电力系统和市场,这促使本文研究如何改革零售关税以促进能源转型。本文回顾了现有的住宅零售电价结构,并通过爱尔兰、意大利和加利福尼亚的案例研究,探讨了零售电价结构和设计对能源效率、可再生发电、需求响应以及电力系统成本回收等政策目标的影响。这项研究应该为有关该主题的学术文献增添经验见解,并引起政策制定者的兴趣,他们希望考虑零售关税结构,通过提高能源效率和增加可再生电力在未来电力市场中的份额的多重目标来促进电力系统的脱碳。
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引用次数: 8
Price-based versus load-smoothing pumpec storage operation: Long-term impacts on generation adequacy 基于价格的与负载平滑的抽水蓄能运行:对发电充足性的长期影响
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981921
C. Fraunholz, Florian Zimmermann, D. Keles, W. Fichtner
With rising shares of fluctuating renewable energy generation, the role of electricity storage becomes increasingly important. However, European pumped storage plants (PSPs) are currently confronted with economic challenges and their potential for smoothing the residual load curve is consequently not fully exploited. In this paper, the long-term effects of load-smoothing and the typical price-based PSP operation are compared with an emphasis on the development of the wholesale electricity prices and the generation adequacy. The study is conducted using an agent-based simulation model of the day-ahead electricity market that has been extended by a methodology to heuristically dispatch the PSPs in Germany. The results show, that the contribution load-smoothing PSP operation can make to improving generation adequacy is rather small. Putting a strategic reserve in place reduces the differences between price-based and load-smoothing PSP operation even further. Moreover, load-smoothing PSP operation goes along with slightly increased wholesale electricity prices as compared to price-based operation.
随着波动性可再生能源发电份额的上升,电力存储的作用变得越来越重要。然而,欧洲抽水蓄能电站(psp)目前面临着经济挑战,其平滑剩余负荷曲线的潜力因此没有得到充分利用。本文以批发电价的发展和发电充分性为重点,比较了负荷平滑和典型的基于价格的PSP操作的长期效果。本研究使用基于代理的日前电力市场仿真模型进行,该模型已被一种方法扩展到启发式地调度德国的psp。结果表明,负荷平滑PSP运行对提高发电充分性的贡献很小。建立战略储备进一步减少了基于价格和负载平滑的PSP操作之间的差异。此外,与基于价格的操作相比,负载平滑PSP操作伴随着批发电价的小幅上涨。
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引用次数: 7
How cost effective is EU climate policy? Evidence from Portugal using integrated modelling 欧盟气候政策的成本效益如何?来自葡萄牙使用综合模型的证据
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981890
Sara Proença, P. Fortes
The European Union (EU) has long been at the forefront of international efforts to tackle climate change. The challenge becomes designing the most cost-eDective policy mix, capable of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the lowest cost to the economy. In this paper, an integrated CGE modelling approach is applied to explore the cost-effectiveness of EU climate policy, taking Portugal as a case study. Results indicate that the current EU climate policy configuration makes GHG reduction more costly than needed. The mitigation targets for 2030 could be achieved at least cost through the implementation of a comprehensive cap-and-trade system instead of the actual emission market segmentation. Moreover, the economic argument on counterproductive overlapping regulation is not corroborated by our results. This finding shows the importance of considering the specificities of each Member State when designing policy mixes. Results also highlight the importance of considering market distortions when assessing policy performance.
长期以来,欧盟一直站在应对气候变化的国际努力的最前沿。挑战在于设计出最具成本效益的政策组合,能够以最低的经济成本减少温室气体(GHG)排放。本文以葡萄牙为例,运用综合CGE建模方法探讨欧盟气候政策的成本效益。结果表明,当前欧盟气候政策配置使得温室气体减排的成本超过了所需。通过实施全面的限额与交易制度,而不是实际的排放市场分割,可以以最低的成本实现2030年的减缓目标。此外,关于适得其反的重叠监管的经济学论点并没有得到我们的结果的证实。这一发现表明在设计政策组合时考虑到每个会员国的具体情况的重要性。研究结果还强调了在评估政策绩效时考虑市场扭曲的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Operational hydropower scheduling with post-spot distribution of reserve obligations 具有后现货分配储备义务的运行水电调度
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981874
J. Kong, H. Skjelbred
As a reliable and flexible electric power source, hydropower can quickly adjust its generation level and provide reserve power to balance the power fluctuations in the system. In this paper, we assume that the day-ahead spot market is cleared and the obligation for each reserve type is already contracted in a preceding market. Then the question is how to make the optimal decision to determine, for each unit and for each time step, the dispatched volume for the day-ahead market and the reserved capacity for various types of reserve. We formulate the constraints added to the optimization problem for distributing reserve obligations. The proposed mathematical formulation is based on an operational hydropower scheduling model used by most large hydro-power producers in Scandinavia.
水电作为一种可靠、灵活的电力来源,可以快速调整发电水平,提供备用电力,平衡系统的功率波动。在本文中,我们假设日前现货市场是出清的,并且每种储备类型的义务已经在之前的市场中签订了合同。接下来的问题是如何做出最优决策,以确定每个单位和每个时间步长的日前市场的分配量和各种储备的预留容量。我们提出了分配储备义务的优化问题的约束条件。所提出的数学公式是基于斯堪的纳维亚半岛大多数大型水力发电商使用的运行水力发电调度模型。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)
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