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2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)最新文献

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Pumped-storage plants improving Brazilian interconnected system operation when facing high solar and wind sources participation 抽水蓄能电站在面对高太阳能和风能资源参与时改善了巴西互联系统的运行
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981913
P. P. B. Machado, G. C. Tenaglia, D. Ramos, J. Hunt
Considering a system based on hydroelectricity, with a significant penetration of renewables (wind and solar) and high barriers to build new dams and reservoirs; this paper presents the benefits that the installation of pumped-storage power plants (PSP) could add to such system, improving its efficiency and respecting the expanding boundaries. A case study was developed considering sixteen hydroelectric plants from a real cascade, one equivalent PSP and five wind farms. Through an evolutionary algorithm, the PSP operation was optimized focusing on minimizing the spillage that could be used to generate power in a convenient moment. To prove this concept, three different hydrologic scenarios were analyzed: wet, dry and medium seasons; based on the real water inflow of the river, according to historical measurements. This investigation makes possible to conclude that a PSP can effectively reduce the effects of intermittency of wind and solar generation, optimizing a subsystem having a topological structure commonly found in the Brazilian Interconnected System.
考虑一个以水力发电为基础的系统,可再生能源(风能和太阳能)的大量渗透,以及建造新水坝和水库的高障碍;本文介绍了抽水蓄能电站(PSP)的安装对该系统的好处,提高了其效率,并尊重了不断扩大的边界。一个案例研究考虑了16个真正的梯级水电站,一个等效的PSP和5个风力发电场。通过进化算法,优化了PSP操作,重点是最小化泄漏,可以在方便的时刻用于发电。为了证明这一概念,分析了三种不同的水文情景:湿季、干季和中季;根据河流的实际流入水量,根据历史测量。这项研究可以得出这样的结论:PSP可以有效地减少风能和太阳能发电的间歇性影响,优化具有巴西互联系统中常见的拓扑结构的子系统。
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引用次数: 3
Rethinking short-term electricity market design: Options for market segment integration 短期电力市场设计的再思考:细分市场整合的选择
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981931
Susanne Rieß, Christoph Neumann, Samuel Glismann, Michael Schoepf, G. Fridgen
Electricity market design varies across countries throughout Europe. Thereby the provision and remuneration of flexibility always takes place in short-term market segments. Taking into consideration the fundamental changes of the power system, this paper discusses options for the future short-term market design. We develop a conceptual basis for a possible integration of currently separated short-term market segments. Market segment integration (MSI) is defined as the interaction between and possible combination of market segments, i.e. intraday market (ID), congestion management (CM) and balancing market (BA). The paper especially focusses on two options, namely an integrated BA and CM market and an integrated ID and CM market. For these options we determine the basic design features. We propose a criteria catalogue which allows the evaluation of the market design options. Based on several criteria we discuss possible positive and negative consequences as well as potential solutions.
欧洲各国的电力市场设计各不相同。因此,灵活性的提供和报酬总是发生在短期细分市场。考虑到电力系统的根本变化,本文探讨了未来短期市场设计的选择。我们为目前分离的短期细分市场的可能整合开发一个概念基础。细分市场整合(MSI)被定义为细分市场之间的相互作用和可能的组合,即即日市场(ID),拥塞管理(CM)和平衡市场(BA)。本文特别关注两个选项,即集成的BA和CM市场和集成的ID和CM市场。对于这些选项,我们确定了基本的设计特征。我们提出了一个标准目录,允许评估市场设计方案。基于几个标准,我们讨论了可能的积极和消极后果以及潜在的解决方案。
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引用次数: 5
Flexibility-friendly support policies: A Nordic and Baltic perspective 灵活性友好型支持政策:北欧和波罗的海的视角
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981856
Luis Boscán, K. Skytte, Emilie Rosenlund Soysal
This paper introduces the concept of flexibility-friendly support policies, i.e. state-of-the-system-dependent sub-sidies given to producers of electricity who base their output on renewable energy sources (RES). Such policies increase with demand, decrease with the availability of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) producers and, overall, follow the power system's residual load. The paper presents a microeconomic framework to analyze this and other desirable properties of support mechanisms. To illustrate the concept, it uses the present-day policies of Nordic and Baltic countries (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden and Norway) as a case study.
本文介绍了灵活性友好型支持政策的概念,即向以可再生能源(RES)为基础的电力生产商提供的与系统状态相关的补贴。这些政策随着需求的增加而增加,随着可变可再生能源(VRE)生产商的可用性而减少,并且总体上遵循电力系统的剩余负荷。本文提出了一个微观经济学框架来分析支持机制的这一特性和其他理想特性。为了说明这一概念,本文使用北欧和波罗的海国家(丹麦、爱沙尼亚、芬兰、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、瑞典和挪威)的现行政策作为案例研究。
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引用次数: 3
POTEnCIA: A new EU-wide energy sector model POTEnCIA:一个新的欧盟范围内的能源部门模式
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7982028
L. Mantzos, N. Matei, Máté Rózsai, P. Russ, A. S. Ramírez
This paper lays out the key features of the new modelling tool POTEnCIA (Policy Oriented Tool for Energy and Climate Change Impact Assessment) for the EU energy system. The model follows a hybrid partial equilibrium approach combining behavioural decision with detailed techno-economic data. Special features are introduced in order to appropriately reflect the implications of an uptake of novel energy technologies and of evolving market structures, allowing for the robust assessment of ambitious policy futures for the EU energy system. The model runs in annual time steps with a typical projection timeline to 2050.
本文列出了欧盟能源系统新建模工具POTEnCIA(能源和气候变化影响评估政策导向工具)的主要特点。该模型遵循混合部分均衡方法,将行为决策与详细的技术经济数据相结合。为了适当地反映新能源技术的采用和不断发展的市场结构的影响,引入了特殊功能,允许对欧盟能源系统雄心勃勃的政策未来进行强有力的评估。该模型以每年的时间步长运行,典型的预测时间到2050年。
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引用次数: 3
Scenarios for decarbonizing the European electricity sector 欧洲电力部门脱碳的设想
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7982017
Clemens Gerbaulet, C. von Hirschhausen, C. Kemfert, Casimir Lorenz, Pao-Yu Gei
Since the climate conferences in Paris and Marrakesh the outstanding question is not if but how and how fast to enable a decarbonization of the European electricity sector. Nuclear power has a difficult time to survive in electricity markets in all Western countries, such as the U.S., Europe, Japan, etc., and is getting increasingly under pressure due to high costs, and the falling costs of alternative sources, such as renewable energies in combination with storage technologies. This paper compares different approaches to decarbonize the electricity sector in Europe using a specific model developed by the authors called dynEL-MOD. We find that, renewables carry the major burden of decarbonization. Scenario analysis suggests that only in the case of a breakthrough of CCTS some biomass-CCTS plants can play a role by 2050 through their negative CO2-emissions. Nuclear power (3rd or 4th generation), on the contrary, is unable to compete with other fuels even by then, and will, therefore, rely on dedicated national programs to survive until 2050. Incorporating the climate targets makes the investment into any additional fossil capacity uneconomic from 2025 onwards, resulting in a coal and natural gas phase-out in the 2040s. The model is run using different foresight assumptions. Limited foresight thus results in stranded investments of fossil capacities in the 2020s. Using a CO2 budgetary approach, on the other hand, leads to an even sharper emission reduction in the early periods before 2030, reducing overall costs.
自巴黎和马拉喀什气候大会以来,突出的问题不是是否,而是如何以及以多快的速度实现欧洲电力部门的脱碳。核电在美国、欧洲、日本等所有西方国家的电力市场上都很难生存,而且由于成本高,以及可再生能源与存储技术相结合等替代能源成本的下降,核电面临的压力越来越大。本文使用作者开发的一个名为dynEL-MOD的特定模型,比较了欧洲电力部门脱碳的不同方法。我们发现,可再生能源承担了脱碳的主要负担。情景分析表明,只有在CCTS取得突破的情况下,一些生物质-CCTS工厂才能通过其负二氧化碳排放到2050年发挥作用。相反,核电(第三代或第四代)即使到那时也无法与其他燃料竞争,因此将依靠专门的国家计划生存到2050年。考虑到气候目标,从2025年起,投资于任何额外的化石燃料产能都是不经济的,这将导致煤炭和天然气在本世纪40年代逐步淘汰。该模型使用不同的预测假设来运行。因此,有限的远见将导致21世纪20年代化石能源产能投资搁浅。另一方面,使用二氧化碳预算方法可以在2030年之前的早期阶段实现更大幅度的减排,从而降低总体成本。
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引用次数: 6
Links between production and consumption of electricity with economic performance in Mexico 墨西哥电力生产和消费与经济表现之间的联系
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981859
R. Massa, Juan Rosellón
Understanding the causal directions between electricity consumption (EC)/electricity production (EP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is helpful for policymakers in order to design, redesign, and implement effective energy policies. Although there are many studies on this issue, no consistent conclusion exists. In this paper, we provide an updated analysis of such relationship for Mexico. We employ three causality tests and find no evidence of causal relation between EC/EP and GDP between 1965 and 2014. This has implications for the Mexican energy legislation liberalizing the electricity generation sector. Our results suggest that Mexican policymakers should consider enriching the bill by further designing policies that seek to promote enhanced generation output and capacity.
了解电力消费(EC)/电力生产(EP)与国内生产总值(GDP)之间的因果关系,有助于政策制定者设计、重新设计和实施有效的能源政策。虽然有很多关于这个问题的研究,但没有一致的结论。在本文中,我们对墨西哥的这种关系进行了更新的分析。我们采用了三个因果检验,发现1965年至2014年间EC/EP与GDP之间没有因果关系的证据。这对使发电部门自由化的墨西哥能源立法有影响。我们的研究结果表明,墨西哥的政策制定者应该考虑通过进一步设计旨在提高发电量和容量的政策来充实该法案。
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引用次数: 2
Integration of wind power — Challenges and options for market integration and its impact on future cross-sectorial use 风力发电的整合-市场整合的挑战和选择及其对未来跨部门使用的影响
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981941
Philip Tafarte, Patrick Buck
The decarbonisation of the economy calls for an increase in demand from renewable power supply, that in many countries has to be provided by variable renewable energy source (vRES) like wind and solar. In this article, we will give an outlook on how system friendly wind turbines can contribute to mitigate this challenge today and improve future cross-sectorial use. Therefore we use various time series data to model the market value of wind turbines and provide scenarios for the German power system in 2035 to assess the potential of system friendly wind energy.
经济的脱碳要求增加对可再生能源供应的需求,在许多国家,可再生能源必须由风能和太阳能等可变可再生能源(vRES)提供。在本文中,我们将展望系统友好型风力涡轮机如何有助于缓解今天的挑战,并改善未来的跨部门使用。因此,我们使用各种时间序列数据对风力涡轮机的市场价值进行建模,并提供2035年德国电力系统的情景,以评估系统友好型风能的潜力。
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引用次数: 5
The impact of power curve estimation on commercial wind power forecasts — An empirical analysis 功率曲线估计对商业风电预测的影响——实证分析
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981885
G. Goretti, A. Duffy, T. Lie
An increasing number of utilities participating in the energy market require short term (i.e. up to 48 hours) power forecasts for renewable generation in order to optimize technical and financial performances. As a result, a large number of forecast providers now operate in the marketplace, each using different methods and offering a wide range of services. This paper assesses five different day-ahead wind power forecasts generated by various service providers currently operating in the market, and compares their performance against the state-of-the-art of short-term wind power forecasting. The work focuses on how power curve estimations can introduce systematic errors that affect overall forecast performance. The results of the study highlight the importance of: accurately modelling the wind speed-to-power output relationships at higher wind speeds; taking account of power curve trends when training models; and the need to incorporate long-term (months to years) power curve variability into the forecast updating process.
为了优化技术和财务表现,越来越多的公用事业公司参与能源市场,需要对可再生能源发电进行短期(即长达48小时)的电力预测。因此,现在市场上有大量的预测提供商,每个都使用不同的方法并提供广泛的服务。本文评估了目前市场上运营的不同服务提供商生成的五种不同的日前风电预测,并将其性能与最先进的短期风电预测进行了比较。工作的重点是功率曲线估计如何引入影响整体预测性能的系统误差。研究结果强调了以下方面的重要性:在较高风速下准确模拟风速与功率输出的关系;训练模型时考虑功率曲线趋势;并且需要将长期(数月至数年)的功率曲线变化纳入预测更新过程。
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引用次数: 11
Towards a simplified approach for modeling policymaker's decisions in the power sector 探讨电力部门决策者决策建模的简化方法
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981951
Salvador Doménech, J. Villar, F. A. Campos, M. Rivier
Plenty of literature exists about how to model liberalized electricity generation markets for the medium and long terms, contributing to the analyze and understanding of those markets, helping companies to plan cost-efficient shortterm market strategies and/or long-term generation capacity investments, and supporting regulators and policymakers in policy decisions and market designs. However, those models do not explicitly consider the impact on investment decisions, mix of technologies and wholesale market prices; of policy decisions but as an external passive input to the model. This paper reviews existing approaches to model policy decisions in such a context, and provides a theoretical modeling framework that explicitly considers the interaction of policymakers' decisions with the generation investment and operation, and customers' response in a liberalized power system. Such kind of model, based on bi-level optimization, contributes to the longterm assessment of some policy decisions in the electricity sector.
关于如何对开放的中长期发电市场进行建模,已有大量文献,有助于分析和理解这些市场,帮助公司规划具有成本效益的短期市场战略和/或长期发电能力投资,并支持监管机构和政策制定者进行政策决策和市场设计。然而,这些模型没有明确考虑对投资决策、技术组合和批发市场价格的影响;而是作为模型的外部被动输入。本文回顾了在这种背景下政策决策建模的现有方法,并提供了一个理论建模框架,该框架明确考虑了自由化电力系统中决策者决策与发电投资和运营以及客户反应的相互作用。这种基于双层优化的模型有助于对电力部门的一些政策决策进行长期评估。
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引用次数: 1
Social welfare of balancing markets 平衡市场的社会福利
Pub Date : 2017-06-01 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981968
P. Zolotarev
This paper investigates the social welfare of balancing markets. The technical background of balancing, the load-frequency control processes, is presented along with an overview of the market design options and cost-bearing mechanisms. A social welfare model is derived based on the assumption of an inelastic demand for balancing services. The results show that the social welfare of balancing markets does not depend on the prices of balancing services. The social welfare increase in cross-border cooperations is driven by the reduction of the underlying costs of balancing service provision. Since prices do not affect social welfare of balancing, it remains constant under marginal and pay-as-bid pricing as long as the same bids are selected to supply a given demand. Nonetheless, a market design where bid prices reflect marginal costs of balancing service provision has advantages for cross-border cooperations and practical aspects of market design.
本文研究均衡市场的社会福利问题。平衡的技术背景,负载-频率控制过程,与市场设计方案和成本承担机制的概述一起提出。一个社会福利模型是基于平衡服务的非弹性需求的假设推导出来的。结果表明,均衡市场的社会福利不依赖于均衡服务的价格。跨境合作的社会福利增加是由平衡服务提供的基本成本降低所驱动的。由于价格不影响平衡的社会福利,只要选择相同的出价来满足给定的需求,价格在边际和按出价支付定价下保持不变。尽管如此,投标价格反映平衡服务提供的边际成本的市场设计对跨境合作和市场设计的实际方面具有优势。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)
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