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2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)最新文献

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Generation expansion planning under uncertainty considering power-to-gas technology 考虑电制气技术的不确定性下的发电扩张规划
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981865
N. van Bracht, A. Moser
In the course of ambitious climate targets, the European electrical power system is subject to an upcoming shift from fossil-fueled to renewable power generation. As a consequence, it remains vague which expansions involve the least-cost transformation path while satisfying security of supply as well as providing sufficient flexibility to handle an increasing share of intermittent feed-in. Hence, this paper presents the stochastic generation expansion planning method ‘ZEUS’ which optimizes investment decisions under uncertainty. Exemplary simulations show that in a power system shaped by renewables an expansion of 7 GW Power-to-Gas technology in Germany appears to be economically efficient. Furthermore, it becomes obvious that the emerging development path significantly changes when relevant uncertainties are explicitly anticipated in the planning process.
在实现雄心勃勃的气候目标的过程中,欧洲电力系统即将从化石燃料转向可再生能源发电。因此,在满足供应安全的同时,哪些扩展涉及成本最低的转换路径,以及提供足够的灵活性来处理日益增加的间歇性上网份额,仍然是模糊的。因此,本文提出了在不确定条件下优化投资决策的随机发电扩展规划方法ZEUS。典型的模拟表明,在一个由可再生能源形成的电力系统中,德国扩大7吉瓦的电转气技术似乎具有经济效益。此外,很明显,当规划过程中明确预期到相关的不确定性时,新兴的发展路径会发生重大变化。
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引用次数: 3
Fower-to-hydrogen and hydrogen-to-X pathways: Opportunities for next generation energy systems 燃料制氢和氢制x途径:下一代能源系统的机遇
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981882
Robert R. Dickinson, N. Lymperopoulos, Alain Le Duigou, P. Lucchese, C. Mansilla, Olfa Tlili, Nouri J. Samsatli, S. Samsatli, M. Weeda, D. Thomas, P. Mancarella, F. Dolci, E. Weidner
Energy systems are evolving rapidly around the world, driven mainly by CO2-e reduction targets. This has led to opportunities for integrated low carbon electricity-and-fuel systems founded on large scale “Power-to-Hydrogen, Hydrogen-to-X” (PtH-HtX). Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH) refers to large scale electrolysis. Hydrogen-to-X (HtX) refers to a range of high value products and services. If these pathways start with low-carbon electricity, then the fuel consumed at the downstream end also low-carbon. Use of intermittently low valued power lowers all production costs. This paper specifically identifies the main pathways and interconnections in a way that overcomes the ambiguities inherent in the term “Power-to-Gas”. In turn, this provides solid and easier to understand foundations for building legal and regulatory frameworks for new business opportunities along the lengths of the numerous pathways from supply to consumption.
在二氧化碳减排目标的推动下,世界各地的能源系统正在迅速发展。这为大规模“电力制氢、氢制x”(PtH-HtX)的集成低碳电力和燃料系统带来了机会。电力制氢(PtH)是指大规模电解。氢到x (HtX)是指一系列高价值的产品和服务。如果这些途径从低碳电力开始,那么下游消耗的燃料也是低碳的。使用间歇性低价值电力降低了所有生产成本。本文明确指出了主要途径和相互联系的方式,克服了术语“电力到天然气”固有的模糊性。反过来,这为在从供应到消费的众多途径中为新的商业机会建立法律和监管框架提供了坚实且易于理解的基础。
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引用次数: 16
Defining a day-ahead spot market for unbundled time-specific renewable energy certificates 为非捆绑的特定时间可再生能源证书确定一个提前一天的现货市场
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981967
Christian Will, P. Jochem, W. Fichtner
One option to counteract anthropogenic climate change is to increase the share of renewable electricity supply. Current market structures provide only a limited framework for the creation of “green” electricity tariffs, which are often criticised as “greenw ashing”, lacking transparency, and ineffective investment signalling. This paper defines and discusses a day-ahead spot market for tradable (short-term) time-specific renewable energy certificates (REC). Implementing an unbundled spot market for REC promises a more credible provision of renewable electricity, along with a mechanism rewarding flexibility in renewable production and storage as well as tangible investment signals.
应对人为气候变化的一个选择是增加可再生电力供应的份额。目前的市场结构只提供了一个有限的框架来创建“绿色”电价,这种电价经常被批评为“绿灰化”,缺乏透明度,投资信号无效。本文定义并讨论了可交易(短期)特定时间可再生能源证书(REC)的日前现货市场。实施非捆绑的可再生能源现货市场承诺提供更可靠的可再生能源电力,以及奖励可再生能源生产和储存灵活性的机制以及有形的投资信号。
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引用次数: 4
Development of adaptive time patterns for multi-dimensional power system simulations 多维电力系统仿真自适应时间模式的发展
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981868
D. vom Stein, N. van Bracht, A. Maaz, A. Moser
The changes in the European power system come with the necessity of modeling the power system in high detail. Especially, when applying stochastic simulation approaches this leads to increasing problem sizes. In this work, we introduce a methodology to reduce the size of optimization problems in the temporal dimension to achieve lower computation times. The method is based on a mixed-integer optimization reducing the modeled time intervals that can be applied to a wide variety of optimization problems. The potential of the approach is proven by a linear unit dispatch problem for the European power system in the year 2024. The comparison of an equidistant and predefined time pattern with the preceding optimization of an adaptive time pattern shows improvements in accuracy regarding the deviation in yearly power generation, which range between 20 % and 25 %, without increasing computational requirements regarding time or hardware.
欧洲电力系统的变化带来了对电力系统进行详细建模的必要性。特别是,当应用随机模拟方法时,这会导致问题规模的增加。在这项工作中,我们引入了一种在时间维度上减少优化问题大小的方法,以实现更低的计算时间。该方法基于混合整数优化,减少了建模时间间隔,可应用于各种优化问题。2024年欧洲电力系统线性机组调度问题证明了该方法的潜力。等距和预定义的时间模式与前面的自适应时间模式优化的比较表明,在不增加关于时间或硬件的计算需求的情况下,关于年发电量偏差的准确性得到了提高,偏差范围在20%到25%之间。
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引用次数: 13
Market-based business model for flexible energy aggregators in distribution networks 配电网中柔性能源聚合器的市场化商业模式
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981997
J. Zupancic, B. Prislan, E. Lakić, T. Medved, A. Gubina, A. Tuerk, V. Kulmer
The increasing rate of the smart technology implementations in the energy sector brings new control solutions for distributed renewable energy sources (DRES) to tackle the additional challenges on the distribution network that arise from increased integration of renewable energy sources (RES). With these new control solutions, a possibility of new services that could be offered on electricity and ancillary markets emerged, providing a possibility of new source of income for DRES, Demand Response (DR) and Aggregators. This paper presents the main results of the EU FP7 project INCREASE, where innovative controls for DRES and DR units were developed and investigated. The main novelty of the paper is a sensitivity analysis of INCREASE ancillary services and business model applied to representative European grid for overall policy conclusions. The knowledge gained in INCREASE provides the basis for the work in H2020 project STORY, where the demand response strategies will be augmented to encompass small-scale storage solutions.
智能技术在能源领域的应用速度越来越快,为分布式可再生能源(DRES)带来了新的控制解决方案,以应对因可再生能源(RES)整合增加而对配电网产生的额外挑战。有了这些新的控制解决方案,就有可能在电力和辅助市场上提供新的服务,为DRES、需求响应(DR)和聚合器提供新的收入来源。本文介绍了欧盟FP7项目INCREASE的主要成果,该项目开发和研究了DRES和DR单元的创新控制。本文的主要新颖之处在于对欧洲代表性电网的辅助服务和商业模式进行敏感性分析,得出总体政策结论。在INCREASE项目中获得的知识为H2020项目STORY的工作提供了基础,在该项目中,需求响应策略将得到扩展,以涵盖小型存储解决方案。
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引用次数: 7
The end of long-term contracts? Gas price and market dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe 长期合同的终结?中欧和东欧的天然气价格和市场动态
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981953
Jakob Wachsmuth, B. Breitschopf, Vija Pakalkaitė
This paper analyses the development of natural gas prices in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and assesses its drivers. Furthermore, the relation to recent changes in import contracts is discussed. The methodological approach consists of a panel analysis, in which wholesale gas prices in CEE countries are explained by a set of exogenous drivers, and a descriptive part on changes in contracts. The results provide evidence that a decreased share of oil-indexed long-term contracts has significantly reduced gas prices in Central Europe. Accordingly, the evaluation of contracting trends suggests that importing companies in CEE countries tend to replace expiring long-term gas import contracts with short-term agreements.
本文分析了中欧和东欧天然气价格的发展,并对其驱动因素进行了评估。此外,本文还讨论了与进口合同最近变化的关系。方法方法包括一项小组分析,其中东欧国家的批发天然气价格由一系列外生驱动因素解释,以及关于合同变化的描述性部分。研究结果表明,与石油挂钩的长期合同份额的下降显著降低了中欧的天然气价格。因此,对合同趋势的评价表明,中东欧国家的进口公司倾向于用短期协议取代到期的长期天然气进口合同。
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引用次数: 2
Aggregated modelling approach of power and heat sector coupling technologies in power system models 电力系统模型中电力和热力耦合技术的聚合建模方法
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981858
P. Härtel, F. Sandau
In order to comply with climate goals in the future, all relevant sectors must implement extensive decarbonisation measures. For power system models, this implies that more complex interactions of bi-and multivalent technologies in the heat, industry and transport sector have to be included. Coupled with higher shares of renewable generation, these interactions lead to significant modelling challenges for large-scale power system models. Focusing on the heat sector, this study develops two aggregation methods for representing hybrid boilers, monovalent heat pumps and CHP systems in an adequate but computationally efficient way. The performance of the aggregation methods is evaluated and compared to the disaggregated reference case in terms of result accuracy and solution time for two load scenarios. It has been shown that the proposed aggregation method 2 which is based on the heating technology efficiencies yields a sound approximation of the disaggregated reference.
为了实现未来的气候目标,所有相关部门都必须实施广泛的脱碳措施。对于电力系统模型,这意味着必须包括供热、工业和运输部门的双价和多价技术之间更复杂的相互作用。再加上可再生能源发电的较高份额,这些相互作用导致大规模电力系统模型的重大建模挑战。着眼于供热部门,本研究开发了两种聚合方法,以充分但计算有效的方式表示混合锅炉,单价热泵和CHP系统。在两种负载情况下,对聚合方法的性能进行了评估,并在结果精度和求解时间方面与分解参考情况进行了比较。结果表明,所提出的基于加热技术效率的聚合方法2与分解参考值很接近。
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引用次数: 6
Generation expansion planning under uncertainty: An application of stochastic methods to the German electricity system 不确定条件下的扩产规划:随机方法在德国电力系统中的应用
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981891
M. Kendziorski, Mona Setje-Eilers, F. Kunz
Renewable energies are expected to be the main electricity generation source. However, the variability of renewable energy supply poses challenges to the generation expansion modelling as uncertainty of hourly generation need to be adequately taken into account. This paper analyzes the implications of different approaches to optimization under uncertainty, ranging from stochastic to robust optimization. We apply these specific approaches to the German electricity system in 2035 and compare them to a deterministic optimization for each realization of the uncertainty. We consider the availability of wind and solar generation as explicit uncertainties affecting the second-stage dispatch level. The deterministic generation expansion problem shows significant variations of optimal capacity mixes depending on the underlying assumptions on hourly renewable feed-in. Moreover, these capacity mixes are hardly robust to unexpected situations. Contrarily, stochastic as well as robust approaches provide a consistent and robust capacity mix at only slightly higher total costs.
预计可再生能源将成为主要的发电来源。然而,可再生能源供应的可变性对发电扩展模型提出了挑战,因为需要充分考虑每小时发电的不确定性。本文分析了不确定性下不同优化方法的含义,从随机优化到鲁棒优化。我们将这些具体方法应用于2035年的德国电力系统,并将它们与每个不确定性实现的确定性优化进行比较。我们认为风能和太阳能发电的可用性是影响第二阶段调度水平的明确不确定性。确定性发电扩展问题显示了基于小时可再生上网的基本假设的最优容量组合的显著变化。此外,这些产能组合很难应对意外情况。相反,随机和稳健的方法提供了一致和稳健的容量组合,而总成本仅略高。
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引用次数: 6
The role of energy storage in local energy markets 储能在当地能源市场中的作用
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981906
Esther Mengelkamp, Johannes Garttner, Christof Weinhardt
To facilitate the integration of renewable electricity sources into the energy system, innovative market designs must be discussed. Local markets that are organized in a decentralized fashion can help to decrease the need for extensive investment in transmission capacity. To analyze such markets, this work presents an agent-based simulation study of a local peer-to-peer electricity market in a community. The market offers a decentralized marketplace for procuring electricity directly from local renewable generation. We evaluate the market efficiency in terms of the attained rate of self-consumption and the average electricity price depending on the number of potential trading partners in two scenarios: A local market without energy storage and a local market with a community energy storage. The results indicate that a community energy storage can substantially increase the market's efficiency.
为了促进可再生电力资源融入能源系统,必须讨论创新的市场设计。以分散方式组织的地方市场有助于减少对输电能力进行广泛投资的需要。为了分析这样的市场,这项工作提出了一个基于代理的模拟研究,一个社区的本地点对点电力市场。该市场为直接从当地可再生能源发电中获取电力提供了一个分散的市场。在两种情况下,我们根据达到的自我消费率和平均电价来评估市场效率,这取决于潜在贸易伙伴的数量:一个没有储能的地方市场和一个有社区储能的地方市场。结果表明,社区储能能够显著提高市场效率。
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引用次数: 32
Valuation of combined wind power plant and hydrogen storage: A decision tree approach 联合风力发电厂和储氢电站的价值评估:决策树方法
Pub Date : 2017-06-06 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2017.7981912
M. Schuster, T. Walther
This article analyses the profitability of a wind power plant in combination with a hydrogen storage. We distinguish between off- and on-shore locations with a 50 MW unit. The hydrogen of the storage unit can be used to either be re-electrified or directly marketed. The study analyses the profitability of a combination of power-plant and hydrogen storages under different scenarios. The profitability is measured by means of the Decision Tree Approach. This approach allows combining different paths of Discounted Cash Flow calculations under various scenarios and accounts for uncertainties of investment decisions. Our results show that re-electrification is not profitable under any scenario in our framework (Germany). On the contrary, wholesale of hydrogen can lead to positive returns, depending on the underlying parameters, regardless of the location of the power plant.
本文分析了风力发电厂与氢储存相结合的盈利能力。我们用50兆瓦的装置区分海上和陆上地点。储存单元的氢气既可以用于再电气化,也可以直接销售。该研究分析了在不同情况下发电厂和氢储存相结合的盈利能力。利用决策树法对盈利能力进行测度。这种方法允许在各种情况下组合不同的贴现现金流量计算路径,并考虑投资决策的不确定性。我们的结果表明,在我们的框架(德国)的任何情况下,再电气化都是无利可图的。相反,根据基本参数,无论发电厂在哪里,氢气的批发都可以带来正回报。
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引用次数: 8
期刊
2017 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM)
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