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BRICS Economies: Assessing the Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Fiscal Consolidation on Government Debt and Economic Growth 金砖国家经济:评估经济政策不确定性和财政整顿对政府债务和经济增长的影响
IF 1.6 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.1177/09763996231184569
E. M. Buthelezi
This article investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and fiscal consolidation on government debt share to GDP and GDP in BRICS countries. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model from 2009 to 2022. The article gives insights into the relationship between EPU, fiscal consolidation and government debt share to GDP with the GDP in the BRICS countries, then advance economies which are mostly undertaken in literature. The findings of the article are that EPU has an insignificant impact on government debt share to GDP in the short and long run. However, fiscal consolidation has a significant impact on reducing government debt share to GDP in the long run. In terms of GDP, EPU has a significant negative impact in the long run but not in the short run. Fiscal consolidation has a significant positive impact on GDP in the short run. Fiscal consolidation is recommended as a growth policy that does not reduce government debt share to GDP.
本文研究了经济政策不确定性(EPU)和财政整顿对金砖国家政府债务占GDP和GDP比例的影响。采用2009 - 2022年的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型。本文深入分析了金砖国家的货币汇率、财政整顿和政府债务占GDP的比例与GDP之间的关系,然后是文献中主要进行的发达经济体。本文的研究结果表明,从短期和长期来看,EPU对政府债务占GDP比重的影响都不显著。然而,从长远来看,财政整顿对降低政府债务占GDP的比例有重大影响。就GDP而言,EPU在长期内具有显著的负面影响,但在短期内没有。财政整顿在短期内对GDP有显著的积极影响。财政整顿被推荐为一种不会降低政府债务占GDP比重的增长政策。
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引用次数: 2
The Deadly Cost of Informal Lending: An Economic Model of Agrarian Suicide in Punjab 非正式借贷的致命成本:旁遮普农业自杀的经济模型
IF 1.6 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-08-09 DOI: 10.1177/09763996231180145
Daniel K. N. Johnson, Lakhwinder Singh, K. Bhangoo, T. Qin
The Indian state of Punjab, which initially benefited greatly from the green revolution, has suffered from a dramatic rise in agrarian suicides for several decades. We use a carefully constructed sample of over 1,000 farmers in the epicentre, and build a three-stage model of agricultural production decisions across multiple input and multiple output choices, indebtedness from multiple sources and suicide via an IPWRA (inverse probability weighted regression adjustment) treatment model to trace the potential roots of the situation. Results show that the use of informal credit from commission agents by farmers accounts for 10 percentage points (or 20%) of all suicides in our sample, regardless of other household factors and choices.
印度旁遮普邦最初从绿色革命中受益匪浅,但几十年来,农业自杀率急剧上升。我们使用了一个精心构建的震中1000多名农民的样本,并通过IPWRA(逆概率加权回归调整)处理模型建立了一个跨多投入和多产出选择、多来源负债和自杀的农业生产决策三阶段模型,以追踪这种情况的潜在根源。结果显示,在我们的样本中,无论其他家庭因素和选择如何,农民使用佣金代理的非正式信贷占所有自杀人数的10个百分点(或20%)。
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引用次数: 0
Hedonic Consumers’ Privacy in Online Shopping: A Systematic Literature Review 网络购物中享乐主义消费者隐私问题的系统文献综述
IF 1.6 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-07-30 DOI: 10.1177/09763996231175382
G. Ullah, Sameer Kumar, F. Furuoka
The article aims to provide a comprehensive examination of the extant literature on online hedonic consumers’ privacy. Further, the authors attempt to identify a gap in online hedonic consumer behaviour focusing on their privacy. The authors systematically reviewed the extant literature on online hedonic consumers and their various privacy-related issues. The discussion on ‘privacy’, ‘online shopping’, ‘hedonic consumption’ and ‘hedonic-motivation system (HMS)’ elucidated any confusion held by the researchers and readers. This review offered insight into the current status of research in this field and recognized the factor ‘privacy’ as a gap in the existing model of online hedonic consumer behaviour that could be properly explored in further scholarly empirical research. The exclusion of non-English language articles and the lack of inclusion of different kinds of hedonic products or services other than ‘online shopping’ were the limitations of this article. Managers and e-commerce vendors could utilize the findings of this review to address their hedonic consumers’ privacy for the growth of their online businesses. This review lays the groundwork to explore online hedonic consumers’ privacy in detail. To address the gaps identified through this study, the development of a new overarching model of online hedonic consumer behaviour is suggested for future researchers, which might provide a theoretical framework for scholars to further examine the effect of privacy on online hedonic consumers.
本文旨在对现存的关于网络享乐消费者隐私的文献进行全面的考察。此外,作者试图找出关注隐私的在线享乐消费者行为的差距。作者系统地回顾了现存的关于网络享乐消费者及其各种隐私相关问题的文献。关于“隐私”、“网上购物”、“享乐消费”和“享乐动机系统(HMS)”的讨论阐明了研究人员和读者的困惑。这篇综述深入了解了该领域的研究现状,并认识到“隐私”因素是现有网络享乐消费者行为模型中的一个空白,可以在进一步的学术实证研究中进行适当的探索。排除了非英语文章,以及没有包括“网上购物”以外的不同类型的享乐产品或服务,这是本文的局限性。管理者和电子商务供应商可以利用这项审查的结果来解决其享乐消费者的隐私问题,以促进其在线业务的发展。这篇综述为详细探讨网络享乐消费者的隐私奠定了基础。为了弥补这项研究中发现的差距,建议未来的研究人员开发一个新的网络享乐消费者行为总体模型,这可能为学者进一步研究隐私对网络享乐消费者的影响提供一个理论框架。
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引用次数: 0
Financial Development and Productivity of Manufacturing Sector in India: An Econometric Analysis 印度制造业金融发展与生产力:一个计量经济学分析
IF 1.6 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-07-17 DOI: 10.1177/09763996231176438
Manisha, Ranjan Aneja
Financial system is considered an important factor to enhance the productivity growth. Financial development (FD) is closely related with economic process as it leads to higher saving and efficiency. The nexus between FD and economic growth is increasingly well established. This paper measures the effect of development in financial sector on the total factor productivity (TFP) of Indian manufacturing sector for the period of 1998–2017. This study used autoregressive distributed lag co-integration approach and Granger causality test to investigate relationship between the financial development index (FDI) and productivity. The results of the study revealed that there is long-run association between FDI and productivity growth of manufacturing sector in India. The study also investigated that the unidirectional relationship exists between FD and TFP of Indian manufacturing sector from FDI to TFP change.
金融体系被认为是提高生产力增长的重要因素。金融发展与经济过程密切相关,因为它可以带来更高的储蓄和效率。FD与经济增长之间的联系日益牢固。本文衡量了1998-2007年期间金融部门发展对印度制造业全要素生产率的影响。本研究采用自回归分布滞后协整方法和Granger因果关系检验方法,研究了金融发展指数(FDI)和生产率之间的关系。研究结果表明,外国直接投资与印度制造业生产率增长之间存在长期相关性。研究还发现,从FDI到TFP的变化,印度制造业的FD和TFP之间存在单向关系。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Employment Intensity of Growth in India: An Insight from Panel Data 印度就业增长强度的决定因素:面板数据透视
IF 1.6 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.1177/09763996231175989
Mohd Irshad, S. H. Qayed
This study examines the employment elasticity of growth at the sectoral level using the KLEMS database for the period 1980–1981 to 2018–2019. After estimating elasticity, we employ the dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) technique to investigate its determinants. The elasticity for the overall period falls between 0.91 and −0.039. Elasticity estimation at the sub-period level varies across three different sub-periods. Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing, and mining and quarrying observed negative elasticity of −0.58 and −0.63, respectively, whereas services and construction show the highest positive elasticity. The DOLS estimation shows that in the full panel, labour quality and wages positively impact employment elasticity of growth, whereas the dummy representing the reforms of 1991 negatively impacts employment elasticity. The magnitude of the coefficient of the workers involved in strikes and lockouts and days lost due to strikes is zero although it is significant. The sectoral analysis shows that the sign and significance of the coefficients vary across the industries except for labour quality. Labour quality is positively significant for almost all the industries in both equations. Wages and employment elasticity observe unique patterns, for example relatively highest and lowest-paying sectors observe reduced employment elasticity. Finally, we suggest that specific policy formulation and efforts are needed to be in place to promote quality of labour and relish real demographic dividends.
本研究使用KLEMS数据库考察了1980-1981年至2018-2019年期间部门层面的就业增长弹性。在估计弹性后,我们使用动态普通最小二乘法(DOLS)来研究其决定因素。整个时期的弹性介于0.91和-0.039之间。子周期水平上的弹性估计在三个不同的子周期之间变化。农业、狩猎、林业和渔业以及采矿和采石业的弹性分别为-0.58和-0.63,而服务业和建筑业的弹性最高。DOLS的估计表明,在整个小组中,劳动力质量和工资对就业增长弹性产生了积极影响,而代表1991年改革的假人对就业弹性产生了负面影响。参与罢工和封锁的工人以及因罢工而损失的天数的系数为零,尽管意义重大。部门分析表明,除劳动力质量外,各行业系数的符号和意义各不相同。在这两个等式中,劳动力质量对几乎所有行业都具有积极意义。工资和就业弹性具有独特的模式,例如收入相对最高和最低的部门的就业弹性降低。最后,我们建议,需要制定具体的政策并作出努力,以提高劳动力质量,享受真正的人口红利。
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引用次数: 0
Party Reputation, Moral Expectations and Voting Behaviour in South Korea 韩国政党声誉、道德期望与投票行为
IF 1.6 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.1177/09763996231179507
Youn Ki, Eunbin Chung
Do voters punish political parties for unsatisfactory performance on issues and traits the parties are expected to excel at? Issue and trait ownership theories stipulate that parties establish reputations regarding policy issues and attributes; voters then reward or punish the party depending on how much voter expectations were met. However, reactions to politicians’ performances may vary depending on voters’ moral intuitions and party affiliations. Analyzing survey and news data on the 2021 mayoral byelection in Seoul, South Korea, we find that party reputation and the expectation gap affected votes. Also, as moral foundations theory (MFT) suggests, differing moral priorities of liberal and conservative voters explain variation in responses to ethical violations. Our findings suggest the applicability of the party ownership framework and MFT in a newer, non-Western democracy. This study contributes to our understanding of voting behaviour in South Korea, with an emphasis on reputation, expectation gaps and moral intuitions.
选民是否会因为政党在问题和特质上表现不佳而惩罚他们?问题和特征所有权理论规定,各方在政策问题和属性方面建立声誉;然后,选民根据选民期望的实现程度来奖励或惩罚该党。然而,对政客表现的反应可能会因选民的道德直觉和党派关系而有所不同。分析2021年韩国首尔市长补选的调查和新闻数据,我们发现政党声誉和期望差距影响了选票。此外,正如道德基础理论(MFT)所表明的那样,自由派和保守派选民的不同道德优先级解释了对违反道德行为的反应的差异。我们的研究结果表明,政党所有权框架和MFT在一个新的非西方民主国家中的适用性。这项研究有助于我们理解韩国的投票行为,重点是声誉、期望差距和道德直觉。
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引用次数: 0
Balancing through Technonationalism and its Impact on India’s National Innovation System: A Case Study of Techgentsia 技术民族主义的平衡及其对印度国家创新体系的影响——以Techgentsia为例
IF 1.6 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.1177/09763996231177366
Rugmini Devi M, J. T. Mammen, Girish Kumar R
A nation’s competitive advantage in the modern world is determined by its access to emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, 5G and cloud computing. This competition has led to the imposition of neo-mercantilist policies to promote and protect domestic industries and substantially reduce foreign investments in the technology sector, especially from rival countries. This phenomenon, termed technonationalism, and the reasons for its emergence in the contemporary world and its variants across major economies are analysed using the neo-realist framework of international relations, particularly the theory of internal balancing. An attempt is made to trace the existence of technonationalism in India by examining six overarching policies of the government. The article elucidates how technonationalism drives the national innovation system in a country through the case study of Techgentsia, an Indian company whose software products are promoted by the Government of India towards strengthening India’s national security. It concludes that India’s technonationalist policies are driven by the heightened threat perception in the international system.
一个国家在现代世界的竞争优势取决于它能否获得人工智能、5G和云计算等新兴技术。这种竞争导致实施新重商主义政策,以促进和保护国内工业,并大大减少外国对技术部门的投资,特别是来自竞争对手国家的投资。这种被称为技术民族主义的现象,及其在当代世界出现的原因及其在主要经济体中的变体,使用国际关系的新现实主义框架,特别是内部平衡理论进行了分析。本文试图通过考察政府的六项主要政策来追溯印度技术民族主义的存在。本文通过对印度公司Techgentsia的案例研究,阐述了技术民族主义是如何推动一个国家的国家创新体系的。Techgentsia的软件产品受到印度政府的推广,以加强印度的国家安全。它的结论是,印度的技术民族主义政策是由国际体系中日益加剧的威胁感知所驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
Productivity and Exports: An Industry-Level Analysis of the Service Sector in India 生产率与出口:印度服务业的行业层面分析
IF 1.6 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-07-14 DOI: 10.1177/09763996231177437
Asmita Goswami, K. Narayanan
The large share of the service sector and its status as a net exporter raise concerns about the sustainability of such growth for a developing economy like India. Given the context, the present article attempts to examine the productivity dynamics of the service sector in India at the industry level. We use the India KLEMS dataset to identify the trends in total factor productivity (TFP) growth and the growth in factor inputs. By uniquely combining the India KLEMS dataset with the trade values in the Extended Balance of Payments Services classification, we examine the dynamics between TFP growth and exports of services using panel vector autoregression technique. The trends in factor inputs show that there is capital deepening within services and the growth in employment remained comparatively lower. The results indicate a feedback effect of exports and productivity growth within the service sector. Additionally, we note that the use of more skilled labour that is better equipped to handle new technology also contributes to growth in the service sector, both in terms of productivity and exports.
服务业的巨大份额及其作为净出口国的地位,引发了人们对印度等发展中经济体这种增长的可持续性的担忧。鉴于这一背景,本文试图从行业层面考察印度服务业的生产力动态。我们使用印度KLEMS数据集来确定全要素生产率(TFP)增长和要素投入增长的趋势。通过将印度KLEMS数据集与扩展国际收支服务分类中的贸易值独特地结合起来,我们使用面板向量自回归技术检验了全要素生产率增长和服务出口之间的动态。要素投入的趋势表明,服务业资本深化,就业增长相对较低。研究结果表明,出口和服务业生产率增长具有反馈效应。此外,我们注意到,使用更熟练的劳动力,更好地掌握新技术,也有助于服务业在生产力和出口方面的增长。
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引用次数: 0
International Trade and Wage Inequality in India: Does Direction of Trade Matter? 国际贸易与印度工资不平等:贸易方向重要吗?
IF 1.6 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-07-12 DOI: 10.1177/09763996231174541
Pankaj Vashisht
After following import-substituting policies for nearly three decades, India opted for liberal economic regime in the early 1990s. Since then, it has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies in the world. However, concerns have been raised about the distributional consequences of liberalization. This article attempts to quantify the impact of trade on wage inequality in the Indian manufacturing sector. Estimating a relative wage equation with a panel of 49 manufacturing industries, this article found a positive association between trade and wage disparity in Indian manufacturing, but the association is contingent on the direction of trade. Our results show that after controlling skill-biased technological change and other variables, trade, especially exports to developed and developing countries, has an opposite impact on wage disparity.
在遵循进口替代政策近三十年后,印度在20世纪90年代初选择了自由经济体制。从那时起,它已成为世界上增长最快的经济体之一。然而,有人对自由化的分配后果表示关切。本文试图量化贸易对印度制造业工资不平等的影响。本文对49个制造业的相对工资方程进行了估算,发现印度制造业的贸易与工资差距之间存在正相关,但这种关联取决于贸易方向。我们的研究结果表明,在控制了技能偏好的技术变革和其他变量后,贸易,特别是对发达国家和发展中国家的出口,对工资差距产生了相反的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Crisis Narratives and Social Construction of Risk: Comparative Case Studies of China and India 新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)大流行危机叙事与风险的社会建构:中印比较案例研究
IF 1.6 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2023-07-12 DOI: 10.1177/09763996231174268
M. Hossain, Yu Shi, M. Jahan
COVID-19 is the greatest challenge the world has faced since World War II. By investigating two case countries—China and India, this study explains the variance based on the theory of the ‘social construction of risk’ concerning the COVID-19 pandemic. Does an individual country’s culture, style of governance, construction of risk, and communication affect the management of COVID-19? Findings reveal that the variations of risk construction and communication of narratives play a pivotal role in building the public perception of crisis. Cultural homogeneity and collectivism, the constitutional setting for policymaking risk narratives and communication, are crucial determinants of effective crisis management, and many states lacking these factors suffer profound difficulties. Regarding these, China is more successful than India in creating the social construction of the risk of COVID-19 crisis narratives. The policy implication of this study helps the government find a better approach to persuade its citizens to comply with the public health policy in case of an emergency.
新冠肺炎是二战以来世界面临的最大挑战。通过对中国和印度两个病例国家的调查,本研究解释了基于新冠肺炎大流行“风险社会建构”理论的方差。一个国家的文化、治理风格、风险构建和沟通是否影响新冠肺炎的管理?研究结果表明,风险构建和叙事传播的差异在建立公众对危机的感知方面发挥着关键作用。文化同质性和集体主义,决策风险叙事和沟通的宪法背景,是有效危机管理的关键决定因素,许多缺乏这些因素的州面临着巨大的困难。在这些方面,中国比印度更成功地创造了新冠肺炎危机叙事风险的社会建构。这项研究的政策含义有助于政府找到更好的方法,说服公民在紧急情况下遵守公共卫生政策。
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引用次数: 0
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