Pub Date : 2023-03-31DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2023.1.18.36
A. Mashkova
The situation of a trade war between Russia and Western countries is unprecedented in recent history, both in terms of the scale of the restrictions being introduced and because of their mutually dangerous nature, as a result of which the entire world economic system is experiencing difficulties. An urgent task is to develop an economic policy for Russia that will allow for a quick reorientation to Eastern markets and the use of new growth drivers. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the measures taken should be carried out using modern tools, one of which is agent-based economic models. Since Russia is not considered as a key player in the models of international trade relations developed in a number of countries, in order to assess the sanctions imposed against it, it was necessary to develop a new tool – an agent-based model of trade wars between Russia, the USA, China and the European Union. The purpose of the study presented in this article is to assess the need of the Russian economy for additional investments in various industries for large-scale import substitution of products till now supplied from unfriendly countries. To achieve this, the agent-based model reproduces the sectoral structure of the considered economies of the countries and trade relations among them that existed before the start of the special military operation, compiles scenarios of possible sanctions, and simulates the corresponding changes in international trade relations. As part of the scenario calculations, three series of experiments were carried out. In the first series, for each scenario the expected dynamics of Russia’s GDP in 2022 was estimated in the context of organizing import substitution programs in key industries, and the cost of these programs was calculated. In the second series, the dependence of GDP dynamics on the volume of investments was studied. The third series simulated the dynamics of trade relations for the period up to 2025 for two investment policy options in each scenario. The results of the experiments also show that the impact of investments on the economy is stronger, the more severe the sanctions are, and under these conditions, the implementation of investment programs can accelerate economic recovery on average by 0.5% of GDP per year.
{"title":"Dynamics of investments in Russia under the conditions of sanction restrictions: Forecast based on an agent-based model","authors":"A. Mashkova","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2023.1.18.36","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2023.1.18.36","url":null,"abstract":"The situation of a trade war between Russia and Western countries is unprecedented in recent history, both in terms of the scale of the restrictions being introduced and because of their mutually dangerous nature, as a result of which the entire world economic system is experiencing difficulties. An urgent task is to develop an economic policy for Russia that will allow for a quick reorientation to Eastern markets and the use of new growth drivers. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the measures taken should be carried out using modern tools, one of which is agent-based economic models. Since Russia is not considered as a key player in the models of international trade relations developed in a number of countries, in order to assess the sanctions imposed against it, it was necessary to develop a new tool – an agent-based model of trade wars between Russia, the USA, China and the European Union. The purpose of the study presented in this article is to assess the need of the Russian economy for additional investments in various industries for large-scale import substitution of products till now supplied from unfriendly countries. To achieve this, the agent-based model reproduces the sectoral structure of the considered economies of the countries and trade relations among them that existed before the start of the special military operation, compiles scenarios of possible sanctions, and simulates the corresponding changes in international trade relations. As part of the scenario calculations, three series of experiments were carried out. In the first series, for each scenario the expected dynamics of Russia’s GDP in 2022 was estimated in the context of organizing import substitution programs in key industries, and the cost of these programs was calculated. In the second series, the dependence of GDP dynamics on the volume of investments was studied. The third series simulated the dynamics of trade relations for the period up to 2025 for two investment policy options in each scenario. The results of the experiments also show that the impact of investments on the economy is stronger, the more severe the sanctions are, and under these conditions, the implementation of investment programs can accelerate economic recovery on average by 0.5% of GDP per year.","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41771070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-31DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2023.1.86.100
M. Fallah Jelodar, S. Sadeghi
This paper compares the driving factors of changes in energy intensity in both net energy exporting and importing countries using a DEA-Malmquist (Data Envelopment Analysis) and panel GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) methods over the period of 2000–2021. The findings show that technological progress has played a significant role in reducing of energy intensity in both groups. Moreover, we use the DEA method to decompose the Malmquist total factor productivity (TFP) into its components including technical change (TC), efficiency change (EC), pure efficiency change (PEC) and scale efficiency change (SEC). The results show that in energy exporting countries, the effects of each of these TFP components on energy intensity are negative but relatively weak, while the effects of these components on reducing energy intensity in importing countries is considerable. Specifically, the estimated coefficient of the pure efficiency component in reducing energy intensity in very remarkable, which shows the high importance of the efficiency components of TFP in energy management. Next, we investigate what is the main driver of technological progress in both the energy exporting and importing countries. The findings imply that in net energy exporting countries trade openness is a dominant factor to improve productivity, while in net energy importing countries, internal R&D is the dominant factor for improving technological efficiency.
{"title":"Driving factors of changes in energy intensity: A comparison between energy exporting and importing countries","authors":"M. Fallah Jelodar, S. Sadeghi","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2023.1.86.100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2023.1.86.100","url":null,"abstract":"This paper compares the driving factors of changes in energy intensity in both net energy exporting and importing countries using a DEA-Malmquist (Data Envelopment Analysis) and panel GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) methods over the period of 2000–2021. The findings show that technological progress has played a significant role in reducing of energy intensity in both groups. Moreover, we use the DEA method to decompose the Malmquist total factor productivity (TFP) into its components including technical change (TC), efficiency change (EC), pure efficiency change (PEC) and scale efficiency change (SEC). The results show that in energy exporting countries, the effects of each of these TFP components on energy intensity are negative but relatively weak, while the effects of these components on reducing energy intensity in importing countries is considerable. Specifically, the estimated coefficient of the pure efficiency component in reducing energy intensity in very remarkable, which shows the high importance of the efficiency components of TFP in energy management. Next, we investigate what is the main driver of technological progress in both the energy exporting and importing countries. The findings imply that in net energy exporting countries trade openness is a dominant factor to improve productivity, while in net energy importing countries, internal R&D is the dominant factor for improving technological efficiency.","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2023-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47175874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.68.81
T. Shevgunov, Zhanna Vavilova, T. Kravchenko, Liubov Levchenko
{"title":"Development of a rating system assessing the quality of the service provided by drivers in a taxi aggregator company","authors":"T. Shevgunov, Zhanna Vavilova, T. Kravchenko, Liubov Levchenko","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.68.81","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.68.81","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44288627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.36.49
S. Bukunov, O. Bukunova
{"title":"Multi-trend trade system for financial markets","authors":"S. Bukunov, O. Bukunova","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.36.49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.36.49","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47309233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.19.35
A. Akopov, L. Beklaryan
{"title":"Simulation of rates of traffic accidents involving unmanned ground vehicles within a transportation system for the ‘smart city’","authors":"A. Akopov, L. Beklaryan","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.19.35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.19.35","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48432799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.50.67
Yury F. Telnov, A. Bryzgalov, Petr Kozyrev, Daria Koroleva
The digital transformation of enterprises and organizations in modern conditions is carried out through the development and implementation of new business models based on various digital technologies which are collectively accumulated as part of digital business platforms. Insufficient development of methods and means of choosing adequate business models for the functioning of network enterprises at the present time, depending on the competitive strategy used, production technologies, digital maturity, and security policy, determines the relevance of this study. The aim of the work is to develop a method to justify the rational choice of the type of business model of digital transformation of a network enterprise under the conditions of multi-criteria evaluation of various factors of obtaining network effects, digital maturity and ensuring economic and information security. To achieve the goal, methodological approaches are used as approaches to solve the problem: to formalize the business model based on the St. Gallen framework, to classify business models of the working group on business models Industry 4.0 to build a knowledge-based system using fuzzy sets of production rules. A method is proposed for classifying the types of business models of a network enterprise depending on the competitive strategy applied, the stage of the life cycle of products and
{"title":"Choosing the type of business model to implement the digital transformation strategy of a network enterprise","authors":"Yury F. Telnov, A. Bryzgalov, Petr Kozyrev, Daria Koroleva","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.50.67","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.50.67","url":null,"abstract":"The digital transformation of enterprises and organizations in modern conditions is carried out through the development and implementation of new business models based on various digital technologies which are collectively accumulated as part of digital business platforms. Insufficient development of methods and means of choosing adequate business models for the functioning of network enterprises at the present time, depending on the competitive strategy used, production technologies, digital maturity, and security policy, determines the relevance of this study. The aim of the work is to develop a method to justify the rational choice of the type of business model of digital transformation of a network enterprise under the conditions of multi-criteria evaluation of various factors of obtaining network effects, digital maturity and ensuring economic and information security. To achieve the goal, methodological approaches are used as approaches to solve the problem: to formalize the business model based on the St. Gallen framework, to classify business models of the working group on business models Industry 4.0 to build a knowledge-based system using fuzzy sets of production rules. A method is proposed for classifying the types of business models of a network enterprise depending on the competitive strategy applied, the stage of the life cycle of products and","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42630439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.7.18
M. Laskin, L. Gadasina
{"title":"Peculiarities of applying methods based on decision trees in the problems of real estate valuation","authors":"M. Laskin, L. Gadasina","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.7.18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2022.4.7.18","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48919534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-30DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2022.3.85.97
V. Kraev, I. Masich, A. Tikhonov
In this paper, a method of identifying conflict relations between the subjects of business processes is presented. The proposed solution seems quite important due to the high sensitivity of modern high-tech enterprises’ business processes to negative factors, as well as the need to develop correct management decisions in conflict situations. A company’s ability to identify internal conflicts and to take them into account during management decision-making is a feature of an effective business process. Modern methods of conflict detection that are available for practical use are able to identify conflict situations only at the stage of open conflict. In this case, the impact of the conflict on the business process is already material and may lead to deterioration in the company’s performance. Unfortunately, existing methods have a significant disadvantage: they are not able to identify conflicts at an early stage, when the impact of the situation on the business process is not noticeable. An innovative approach based on analytical processing of survey-based data is proposed. This approach is able to identify hidden conflicts among employees of the enterprise. Identifying a conflict situation at an early stage makes it possible to manage conflict and reduce subsequent financial loss.
{"title":"A method for identifying conflict relations between business process subjects based on paired correlations of mutual assessments","authors":"V. Kraev, I. Masich, A. Tikhonov","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2022.3.85.97","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2022.3.85.97","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, a method of identifying conflict relations between the subjects of business processes is presented. The proposed solution seems quite important due to the high sensitivity of modern high-tech enterprises’ business processes to negative factors, as well as the need to develop correct management decisions in conflict situations. A company’s ability to identify internal conflicts and to take them into account during management decision-making is a feature of an effective business process. Modern methods of conflict detection that are available for practical use are able to identify conflict situations only at the stage of open conflict. In this case, the impact of the conflict on the business process is already material and may lead to deterioration in the company’s performance. Unfortunately, existing methods have a significant disadvantage: they are not able to identify conflicts at an early stage, when the impact of the situation on the business process is not noticeable. An innovative approach based on analytical processing of survey-based data is proposed. This approach is able to identify hidden conflicts among employees of the enterprise. Identifying a conflict situation at an early stage makes it possible to manage conflict and reduce subsequent financial loss.","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48668150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-30DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2022.3.36.52
Mariya Myznikova
Amidst a high and increasing level of ambiguity, the quality of strategic management when ensuring the achievement by an enterprise of a sustainable development trajectory becomes particularly important. The issues of formation and efficient implementation of the strategic management mechanism bring into focus the task of finding tools for assessing the quality of strategic management. Meanwhile, the agenda of developing the tools to assess the quality of strategic management of an enterprise from the standpoint of achieving a sustainable development trajectory under ambiguity remains poorly understood. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to improve the quality of strategic management of industrial enterprises operating under uncertainty by developing and testing on the example of individual enterprises of the Donetsk region a toolkit for assessing the quality of strategic management in the context of an enterprise achieving a sustainable development trajectory. To reach this goal, this study uses a synthesis of systemic, cybernetic and synergetic approaches. For this purpose, within the framework of the study, a conceptualization of the main notions was carried out and theoretical and methodological approaches to the interpretation of the notions of “strategic management,” “sustainable development” and “strategic uncertainty” were proposed. Based on the author’s approaches to the interpretation of the main notions, it was suggested to assess the quality of strategic management in terms of the goal of such management, which is to achieve a sustainable development trajectory. Using the author’s approach, an assessment was made of the quality of strategic management of industrial enterprises in the Donetsk region in the context of their achievement of sustainable development. Approbation of the proposed tools led to the conclusion that the integral assessment indicator for all analyzed enterprises did not have an unambiguous and unidirectional downward trend. The foregoing indicates the absence of a stable trend towards the attractor for the analyzed period for all the enterprises in question, which makes highly topical the search for reserves to increase the efficiency of strategic management of industrial enterprises in the Donetsk region, which constitute the prospect for further research.
{"title":"Quality of strategic management under ambiguity: Assessment within the framework of sustainable development","authors":"Mariya Myznikova","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2022.3.36.52","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2022.3.36.52","url":null,"abstract":"Amidst a high and increasing level of ambiguity, the quality of strategic management when ensuring the achievement by an enterprise of a sustainable development trajectory becomes particularly important. The issues of formation and efficient implementation of the strategic management mechanism bring into focus the task of finding tools for assessing the quality of strategic management. Meanwhile, the agenda of developing the tools to assess the quality of strategic management of an enterprise from the standpoint of achieving a sustainable development trajectory under ambiguity remains poorly understood. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to improve the quality of strategic management of industrial enterprises operating under uncertainty by developing and testing on the example of individual enterprises of the Donetsk region a toolkit for assessing the quality of strategic management in the context of an enterprise achieving a sustainable development trajectory. To reach this goal, this study uses a synthesis of systemic, cybernetic and synergetic approaches. For this purpose, within the framework of the study, a conceptualization of the main notions was carried out and theoretical and methodological approaches to the interpretation of the notions of “strategic management,” “sustainable development” and “strategic uncertainty” were proposed. Based on the author’s approaches to the interpretation of the main notions, it was suggested to assess the quality of strategic management in terms of the goal of such management, which is to achieve a sustainable development trajectory. Using the author’s approach, an assessment was made of the quality of strategic management of industrial enterprises in the Donetsk region in the context of their achievement of sustainable development. Approbation of the proposed tools led to the conclusion that the integral assessment indicator for all analyzed enterprises did not have an unambiguous and unidirectional downward trend. The foregoing indicates the absence of a stable trend towards the attractor for the analyzed period for all the enterprises in question, which makes highly topical the search for reserves to increase the efficiency of strategic management of industrial enterprises in the Donetsk region, which constitute the prospect for further research.","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46977237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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