Pub Date : 2020-06-30DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.7.20
O. Kazakov, Olga V. Mikheenko
This article deals with the application of transfer learning methods and domain adaptation in a recurrent neural network based on the long short-term memory architecture (LSTM) to improve the efficiency of management decisions and state economic policy. Review of existing approaches in this area allows us to draw a conclusion about the need to solve a number of practical issues of improving the quality of predictive analytics for preparing forecasts of the development of socio-economic systems. In particular, in the context of applying machine learning algorithms, one of the problems is the limited number of marked data. The authors have implemented training of the original recurrent neural network on synthetic data obtained as a result of simulation, followed by transfer training and domain adaptation. To achieve this goal, a simulation model was developed by combining notations of system dynamics with agent-based modeling in the AnyLogic system, which allows us to investigate the influence of a combination of factors on the key parameters of the efficiency of the socio-economic system. The original LSTM training was realized with the help of TensorFlow, an open source software library for machine learning. The suggested approach makes it possible to expand the possibilities of complex application of simulation methods for building a neural network in order to justify the parameters of the development of the socio-economic system and allows us to get information about its future state.
{"title":"Transfer learning and domain adaptation based on modeling of socio-economic systems","authors":"O. Kazakov, Olga V. Mikheenko","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.7.20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.7.20","url":null,"abstract":"This article deals with the application of transfer learning methods and domain adaptation in a recurrent neural network based on the long short-term memory architecture (LSTM) to improve the efficiency of management decisions and state economic policy. Review of existing approaches in this area allows us to draw a conclusion about the need to solve a number of practical issues of improving the quality of predictive analytics for preparing forecasts of the development of socio-economic systems. In particular, in the context of applying machine learning algorithms, one of the problems is the limited number of marked data. The authors have implemented training of the original recurrent neural network on synthetic data obtained as a result of simulation, followed by transfer training and domain adaptation. To achieve this goal, a simulation model was developed by combining notations of system dynamics with agent-based modeling in the AnyLogic system, which allows us to investigate the influence of a combination of factors on the key parameters of the efficiency of the socio-economic system. The original LSTM training was realized with the help of TensorFlow, an open source software library for machine learning. The suggested approach makes it possible to expand the possibilities of complex application of simulation methods for building a neural network in order to justify the parameters of the development of the socio-economic system and allows us to get information about its future state.","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42300482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-30DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.84.92
G. Zhukova, Y. Smetanin, M. Ulyanov
In applied problems of business informatics related to data analysis (in particular, in the analysis and forecasting of time series, in the study of log files of business processes, etc.), problems of qualitative analysis arise. Qualitative analysis methods often use symbolic coding as a way of presenting information about the processes under study. In a number of situations, due to the fragmentation of such descriptions, the problem arises of reconstructing a complete symbolic description of a process (word) from its successive fragments (subwords). From the multiset of all subwords of a sufficiently large length, the original word is uniquely restored. In the case of insufficiently long subwords, several different reconstructions of the original word are possible. The number of feasible reconstructions can be reduced by determining the suffix and prefix of the reconstructed word. A method is proposed for determining the prefix and suffix of a word consisting of k – 1 symbols each on the basis of multiset of subwords of a fixed length equal to . We accept the hypothesis that this multiset is generated by a window of a fixed length of one symbol shift in an unknown word. The method for determining the
{"title":"About the possibility of determining the prefix and suffix of a word by subwords of fixed length","authors":"G. Zhukova, Y. Smetanin, M. Ulyanov","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.84.92","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.84.92","url":null,"abstract":"In applied problems of business informatics related to data analysis (in particular, in the analysis and forecasting of time series, in the study of log files of business processes, etc.), problems of qualitative analysis arise. Qualitative analysis methods often use symbolic coding as a way of presenting information about the processes under study. In a number of situations, due to the fragmentation of such descriptions, the problem arises of reconstructing a complete symbolic description of a process (word) from its successive fragments (subwords). From the multiset of all subwords of a sufficiently large length, the original word is uniquely restored. In the case of insufficiently long subwords, several different reconstructions of the original word are possible. The number of feasible reconstructions can be reduced by determining the suffix and prefix of the reconstructed word. A method is proposed for determining the prefix and suffix of a word consisting of k – 1 symbols each on the basis of multiset of subwords of a fixed length equal to . We accept the hypothesis that this multiset is generated by a window of a fixed length of one symbol shift in an unknown word. The method for determining the","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43447756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-30DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.64.83
Andrei Ternikov, E. Aleksandrova
One of the most dynamically changing parts of the labor market relates to information technologies. Skillsets demanded by employers in this sphere vary across different industries, organizations and even certain vacancies. The educational system in the most cases lags behind such changes, so that obsolete skillsets are being taught. This article proposes an algorithm of skillsets identification that allows us to extract skills that are needed by companies from different occupational groups in the information technologies sector. Using the unstructured online-vacancies database for the Russian regional labor market, skills are extracted and unified with the use of TF-IDF and n-grams approaches. As a result, key specific skillsets for various occupations are found. The proposed algorithm allows us to identify and standardize key skills which might be applicable to create a system of Russian classification for occupations and skills. In addition, the algorithm allows us to provide lists of the key combinations of skills that are in high demand among companies inside each particular occupation.
{"title":"Demand for skills on the labor market in the IT sector","authors":"Andrei Ternikov, E. Aleksandrova","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.64.83","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.64.83","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most dynamically changing parts of the labor market relates to information technologies. Skillsets demanded by employers in this sphere vary across different industries, organizations and even certain vacancies. The educational system in the most cases lags behind such changes, so that obsolete skillsets are being taught. This article proposes an algorithm of skillsets identification that allows us to extract skills that are needed by companies from different occupational groups in the information technologies sector. Using the unstructured online-vacancies database for the Russian regional labor market, skills are extracted and unified with the use of TF-IDF and n-grams approaches. As a result, key specific skillsets for various occupations are found. The proposed algorithm allows us to identify and standardize key skills which might be applicable to create a system of Russian classification for occupations and skills. In addition, the algorithm allows us to provide lists of the key combinations of skills that are in high demand among companies inside each particular occupation.","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48366453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-30DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.48.63
M. Laskin
{"title":"Multidimensional log-normal distribution in real estate appraisals","authors":"M. Laskin","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.48.63","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.48.63","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43551258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-31DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.19.31
E. Prokofyeva, R. Zaytsev
Modeling the processes in a healthcare system plays a large role in understanding its activities and serves as the basis for increasing the efficiency of medical institutions. The tasks of analyzing and modeling large amounts of urban healthcare data using machine learning methods are of particular importance and relevance for the development of industry solutions in the framework of digitalization of the economy, where data is the key factor in production. The problem of automatic analysis and determination of clinical pathways groups of patients based on clustering methods is considered in this research. Existing projects in this area reflect a great interest on the part of the scientific community in such studies; however, there is a need to develop a number of methodological approaches for their further practical application in urban outpatient institutions, taking into account the specifics of the organization being analyzed. The aim of the study is to improve the quality of management and segmentation of patient input flow in urban medical institutions based on cluster analysis methods for the further development of recommendation services. One approach to achieving this goal is the development and implementation of clinical pathways, or patient trajectories. In general, the clinical pathway of a patient might be interpreted as the trajectory when receiving medical services in respective institutions. The approach of developing groups of patient routes by the hierarchical agglomerative algorithm with the Ward method and Additive Regularization of Topic Models (ARTM) is presented in this article. A computational experiment based on public data on the routes of patients with a a and diagnosis of sepsis is described. One feature of the proposed approach is not just the automation of the determination of similar groups of patient trajectories, but also the consideration of clinical pathways patterns to form recommendations for organizing the resource allocation of a medical institution. The proposed approach to segmenting the input heterogeneous flow of patients in urban medical institutions on the basis of clustering consists of the following steps: 1) preparing the data of the medical institution in the format of an event log; 2) encoding patient routes; 3) determination of the upper limit of the clinical pathway length; 4) hierarchical agglomerative clustering; 5) additive regularization of topic models (ARTM); 6) identifying popular patient route patterns. The resulting clusters of routes serve as the foundation for the further development of a simulation model of a medical institution and provide recommendations to patients. In addition, these groups may underlie the development of the robotic process automation system (RPA), which simulates human actions and allows you to automate the interpretation of data to manage the resources of the institution.
对医疗保健系统中的流程进行建模在理解其活动方面发挥着重要作用，并作为提高医疗机构效率的基础。使用机器学习方法分析和建模大量城市医疗保健数据的任务对于在经济数字化框架中开发行业解决方案特别重要和相关，其中数据是生产的关键因素。本文研究了基于聚类方法的患者临床路径组自动分析和确定问题。这一领域的现有项目反映了科学界对这类研究的极大兴趣;然而，考虑到所分析组织的具体情况，有必要制定一些方法学方法，以便在城市门诊机构进一步实际应用。本研究旨在提高基于聚类分析方法的城市医疗机构患者输入流管理和细分质量，为推荐服务的进一步发展提供依据。实现这一目标的一种方法是开发和实施临床路径或患者轨迹。一般来说，患者的临床路径可以理解为在各自机构接受医疗服务时的轨迹。本文提出了一种基于分层聚类算法、Ward方法和主题模型加性正则化(Additive Regularization of Topic Models, ARTM)的患者路径组构建方法。本文描述了一个基于公共数据的脓毒症患者路径和诊断的计算实验。所提出的方法的一个特点不仅是确定类似患者轨迹组的自动化，而且还考虑临床路径模式，以形成组织医疗机构资源分配的建议。本文提出的基于聚类的城市医疗机构患者输入异构流分割方法包括以下步骤:1)将医疗机构数据以事件日志的形式进行准备;2)患者路径编码;3)确定临床路径长度上限;4)分层集聚聚类;5)主题模型的加性正则化(ARTM);6)确定流行的患者路线模式。由此产生的路线集群作为进一步开发医疗机构模拟模型的基础，并向患者提供建议。此外，这些组可能是机器人过程自动化系统(RPA)的基础，它模拟人类的行为，并允许您自动解释数据以管理机构的资源。
{"title":"Clinical pathways analysis of patients in medical institutions based on hard and fuzzy clustering methods","authors":"E. Prokofyeva, R. Zaytsev","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.19.31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.19.31","url":null,"abstract":"Modeling the processes in a healthcare system plays a large role in understanding its activities and serves as the basis for increasing the efficiency of medical institutions. The tasks of analyzing and modeling large amounts of urban healthcare data using machine learning methods are of particular importance and relevance for the development of industry solutions in the framework of digitalization of the economy, where data is the key factor in production. The problem of automatic analysis and determination of clinical pathways groups of patients based on clustering methods is considered in this research. Existing projects in this area reflect a great interest on the part of the scientific community in such studies; however, there is a need to develop a number of methodological approaches for their further practical application in urban outpatient institutions, taking into account the specifics of the organization being analyzed. The aim of the study is to improve the quality of management and segmentation of patient input flow in urban medical institutions based on cluster analysis methods for the further development of recommendation services. One approach to achieving this goal is the development and implementation of clinical pathways, or patient trajectories. In general, the clinical pathway of a patient might be interpreted as the trajectory when receiving medical services in respective institutions. The approach of developing groups of patient routes by the hierarchical agglomerative algorithm with the Ward method and Additive Regularization of Topic Models (ARTM) is presented in this article. A computational experiment based on public data on the routes of patients with a a and diagnosis of sepsis is described. One feature of the proposed approach is not just the automation of the determination of similar groups of patient trajectories, but also the consideration of clinical pathways patterns to form recommendations for organizing the resource allocation of a medical institution. The proposed approach to segmenting the input heterogeneous flow of patients in urban medical institutions on the basis of clustering consists of the following steps: 1) preparing the data of the medical institution in the format of an event log; 2) encoding patient routes; 3) determination of the upper limit of the clinical pathway length; 4) hierarchical agglomerative clustering; 5) additive regularization of topic models (ARTM); 6) identifying popular patient route patterns. The resulting clusters of routes serve as the foundation for the further development of a simulation model of a medical institution and provide recommendations to patients. In addition, these groups may underlie the development of the robotic process automation system (RPA), which simulates human actions and allows you to automate the interpretation of data to manage the resources of the institution.","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47241070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-31DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.7.18
E. I. Gribkov, Yuriy P. Yekhlakov
This article offers a transition-based neural network model for extracting informative expressions from user request texts. The configuration and transition system that turns the process of informative expression extraction into the execution of a sequence of transitions is described. Prediction of transition sequence is done using a neural network that uses features derived from the configuration. To train and evaluate a proposed model, a corpus of annotated Android mobile application reviews from the Google Play store was created. The training procedure of the model for informative expressions extraction and selected model’s hyperparameters are described. An experiment was conducted comparing the proposed model and an alternative model based on a hybrid of convolutional and recurrent neural networks. To compare quality of these two models, the F1 score that aggregates recall and precision of extracted informative expressions was used. The experiment shows that the proposed model extracts expressions of interest better than the alternative: the F1 score for spans extraction increased by 2.9% and the F1 for link extraction increased by 36.2%. A qualitive analysis of extracted expressions indicates that the proposed model is applicable for the task of user request analysis during operation and the maintenance phase of software products.
{"title":"Neural network model for user request analysis during software operations and maintenance phase","authors":"E. I. Gribkov, Yuriy P. Yekhlakov","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.7.18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.7.18","url":null,"abstract":"This article offers a transition-based neural network model for extracting informative expressions from user request texts. The configuration and transition system that turns the process of informative expression extraction into the execution of a sequence of transitions is described. Prediction of transition sequence is done using a neural network that uses features derived from the configuration. To train and evaluate a proposed model, a corpus of annotated Android mobile application reviews from the Google Play store was created. The training procedure of the model for informative expressions extraction and selected model’s hyperparameters are described. An experiment was conducted comparing the proposed model and an alternative model based on a hybrid of convolutional and recurrent neural networks. To compare quality of these two models, the F1 score that aggregates recall and precision of extracted informative expressions was used. The experiment shows that the proposed model extracts expressions of interest better than the alternative: the F1 score for spans extraction increased by 2.9% and the F1 for link extraction increased by 36.2%. A qualitive analysis of extracted expressions indicates that the proposed model is applicable for the task of user request analysis during operation and the maintenance phase of software products.","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44440808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-31DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.32.40
Dmitry Pervoukhin, E. Isaev, Georgy Rytikov, E. Filyugina, Diana A. Hayrapetyan
The absence of a common and universal approach to IT project management allows us to formulate a problem to analyze and study when choosing the most efficient project management methodology. The relatively small number of scientific works summarizing practical experience of a theoretical approach allowed us to formulate a generalized mathematical model for a common IT project lifecycle estimation in this work using waterfall, agile or hybrid approaches for the project management. Based on the advantages and disadvantages of existing methodologies that we revealed, it appears that use of agile approaches within stages of the cascade methodology approach improves the process of IT project management compared to a pure cascade implementation. Moreover, the recursive application of an iterative approach at certain stages of the project implementation worsens the characteristics of the project life cycle and can be used only to reduce a certain class of project risks. The results of our study allow us to propose a semi-empirical method for project planning estimation accuracy and attainability of the declared project implementation characteristics. All of this should have a positive impact on the effectiveness of the IT project management strategy choice.
{"title":"Theoretical comparative analysis of cascading, iterative, and hybrid approaches to IT project life cycle management","authors":"Dmitry Pervoukhin, E. Isaev, Georgy Rytikov, E. Filyugina, Diana A. Hayrapetyan","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.32.40","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.32.40","url":null,"abstract":"The absence of a common and universal approach to IT project management allows us to formulate a problem to analyze and study when choosing the most efficient project management methodology. The relatively small number of scientific works summarizing practical experience of a theoretical approach allowed us to formulate a generalized mathematical model for a common IT project lifecycle estimation in this work using waterfall, agile or hybrid approaches for the project management. Based on the advantages and disadvantages of existing methodologies that we revealed, it appears that use of agile approaches within stages of the cascade methodology approach improves the process of IT project management compared to a pure cascade implementation. Moreover, the recursive application of an iterative approach at certain stages of the project implementation worsens the characteristics of the project life cycle and can be used only to reduce a certain class of project risks. The results of our study allow us to propose a semi-empirical method for project planning estimation accuracy and attainability of the declared project implementation characteristics. All of this should have a positive impact on the effectiveness of the IT project management strategy choice.","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42811612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-31DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.51.61
R. Gutgarts
Analysis of modern publications dealing with project-based learning at the university has shown that they can be divided into two parts. The first part is devoted to theoretical and methodological issues and its authors are mainly pedagogical specialists. The second part is concrete examples of the application of the indicated teaching technology in various subject areas, including technical specialties. The literature also presents applications on the organizational and technological aspects of introducing project-based learning in the educational process at the university. The authors of the second part are teachers of specialized disciplines in the corresponding field of study (medicine, technology, creativity, economics, etc.). This article provides an example of the use of elements of project-based education as early as in Soviet higher education when teaching students with a specialization in “Information Technology” and their projection on a modern educational platform. The purpose of the study is to consider individual methodological issues and practical recommendations for applying the project method for students of study profiles related to the study of disciplines focused on information systems (IS) design. The result of the study is to focus on the possibility of introducing project-based training within an interdisciplinary nature, in particular, the participation of students studying in economic specialties in projects for the creation of functional IS. Advice is given on the distribution of the roles of students and their functions in a team working on a project.
{"title":"Practical aspects of project-based learning in the study of the discipline “Developing information systems”","authors":"R. Gutgarts","doi":"10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.51.61","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.51.61","url":null,"abstract":"Analysis of modern publications dealing with project-based learning at the university has shown that they can be divided into two parts. The first part is devoted to theoretical and methodological issues and its authors are mainly pedagogical specialists. The second part is concrete examples of the application of the indicated teaching technology in various subject areas, including technical specialties. The literature also presents applications on the organizational and technological aspects of introducing project-based learning in the educational process at the university. The authors of the second part are teachers of specialized disciplines in the corresponding field of study (medicine, technology, creativity, economics, etc.). This article provides an example of the use of elements of project-based education as early as in Soviet higher education when teaching students with a specialization in “Information Technology” and their projection on a modern educational platform. The purpose of the study is to consider individual methodological issues and practical recommendations for applying the project method for students of study profiles related to the study of disciplines focused on information systems (IS) design. The result of the study is to focus on the possibility of introducing project-based training within an interdisciplinary nature, in particular, the participation of students studying in economic specialties in projects for the creation of functional IS. Advice is given on the distribution of the roles of students and their functions in a team working on a project.","PeriodicalId":41920,"journal":{"name":"Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2020-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49357265","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-03-31DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.62.74
E. Kopnova, L. Rodionova
Работа посвящена моделированию процессов глобализации с учетом динамических связей между ними и структурных сдвигов в параметрах тенденций их развития. Актуальность исследования объясняется тем, что большинство работ по данной теме посвящено изучению влияния глобализации на отдельные показатели социально-экономического развития, и недостаточно внимания уделяется изучению формирования общего тренда глобализации и взаимовлияния ее составляющих. Последнее представляется особенно важным для развивающихся стран, для которых характерна сильная неоднородность этих составляющих в структуре глобализации, а также заметная изменчивость параметров в их тенденциях. Предложен подход коинтеграционного анализа процессов глобализации с учетом структурных сдвигов в тенденциях этих процессов. В качестве примера реализации данного подхода рассматривается моделирование динамики составляющих КОФ-индекса глобализации для Алжира за 1970-2015 годы. Стационарность процессов проверялась с помощью тестов единичного корня с учетом структурных сдвигов: Эндрюса-Зивота, Перрона для ряда с одним структурным сдвигом, Клементе-Монтанес-Рейеса и Ли-Стражисича для ряда с одним или двумя структурными сдвигами. Для тестирования на коинтеграцию использовался тест Йохансена для малых выборок с учетом экзогенных переменных. Наличие динамических связей подтверждалось путем сравнения прогнозов по векторной модели коррекции ошибками и одномерными моделями процессов с использованием теста Диболда-Мариано. Интерпретация моделей дается на основе оценок функции импульсного отклика и разложения дисперсии ошибки прогноза Холецкого. Полученные результаты свидетельствуют о том, что формирование КОФ-индекса глобализации для Алжира во многом объясняется взаимовлиянием его составляющих. Динамика политической и экономической глобализации формируется в результате взаимных изменений в сфере внешних экономических и политических связей. Роль международного сотрудничества в социальной сфере для двух других составляющих глобализации в Алжире оказывается невелика. При этом динамика социальной глобализации определяется за счет ее собственных составляющих. Предложенная в работе методология моделирования может быть применена к исследованию процессов глобализации в других странах мира с целью дальнейшего обоснования принятия политических решений.
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Pub Date : 2020-03-31DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.1.75.84
M. Zuev, B. Zuev, I. Bulgakova
This article is devoted to the integrated performance assessment method – an improved version of the earned value management. It provides a description of the key features and benefits of practical application of the performance assessment method to develop estimates and forecasts of activity. It sets out the authors’ opinion about the performance assessment method for execution of key performance indicators in a balanced scorecard. The article touches upon the problems of management due to the unsettled terminology among managers, and various interpretations of the terms: efficiency, effectiveness and economy in management, and proposes a definition to align terminology to uniformity. It provides in a graphical way the vector system: efficiency as the resulting vector of activities obtained from multiplying the vectors of productivity and efficiency, orthogonal to the plane of the multiplied vectors. It gives a conceptual model of the organizational structure of management and cooperation of stakeholders, which opens opportunities for the economic growth of the enterprise, its protection from external or internal risks, both managerial and technological.
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