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A model for optimizing plans for procurement of raw materials from regions of Russia in a timber-processing enterprise 木材加工企业从俄罗斯各地区采购原材料的优化计划模型
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.4.19.35
R. Rogulin
In this paper a model for the formation of sustainable supply chains of raw materials for a timber processing complex is proposed. The model allows one to optimize the plan of purchases from the Russian Commodity Exchange, as well as the plan of manufacturing finished products. The model presents the task of mathematical programming, whereby the company’s profit is used as the objective function, and the input data include the forecasted values of structure and volumes of offers available on the Russian Commodity Exchange, as well as demand for finished products. The recurrence dependencies of the model describe the flow of raw materials at the enterprise’s warehouse, taking into account revenues from purchased lots, transportation time and consumption of resources that are required for production of simulated volumes of products. Constraints of the model represent formalization of the limited flow of financial resources, taking into account sales and warehouse characteristics. The optimization task deals with variables including volumes of daily output of finished products according to a given nomenclature, as well as variables that specify the inclusion of lots into the portfolio of applications purchased on the exchange. The model solution is found using the branch and bound method with preliminary clipping based on the modified Chvatal–Gomory method. One example considers formation of optimal plans for the purchase and sales in a timber processing complex located in the Primorsky Territory (Russia), which does not have its own forest plots providing production with raw materials. The usefulness of the interaction of the enterprise with the timber department of the commodity and raw materials exchange is assessed.
本文提出了一个木材加工企业可持续原材料供应链的形成模型。该模型允许人们优化从俄罗斯商品交易所购买的计划,以及生产成品的计划。该模型提出了数学规划的任务,将公司的利润用作目标函数,输入数据包括俄罗斯商品交易所的报价结构和数量的预测值,以及成品需求。该模型的递归依赖性描述了企业仓库中原材料的流动,考虑了采购批次的收入、运输时间和生产模拟数量产品所需的资源消耗。考虑到销售和仓库的特点,模型的约束条件代表了有限的财务资源流动的形式化。优化任务处理的变量包括根据给定命名法的成品日产量,以及指定在交易所购买的应用程序组合中包含批次的变量。在改进的Chvatal–Gomory方法的基础上,使用带有初步剪裁的分枝定界方法找到模型解。一个例子是考虑在位于Primorsky Territory(俄罗斯)的木材加工厂制定最佳采购和销售计划,该厂没有自己的林地为生产提供原材料。评估了企业与商品和原材料交易所木材部门互动的有用性。
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引用次数: 3
Wuhan coronavirus spread in Russia: macroeconomic production function in regard to transport and communication infrastructure 武汉冠状病毒在俄罗斯的传播:与交通和通信基础设施有关的宏观经济生产函数
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2020-12-31 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.4.76.95
A. Afanasiev, O. Ponomareva
Transport and communication infrastructure plays an important role in ensuring economic growth, also in the context of the Wuhan coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) spread worldwide. The role of the communication component increases with the epidemic and the associated restrictive measures, which replace, to a certain extent, the transport component. We offer an econometric study of the macroeconomic production function in the Russian Federation with transport and communication infrastructure (the fixed assets average annual value of the Russian transport and communications sectors) for 1990–2018. The arguments for this function are the average annual value of fixed assets in constant 1990 prices, the average annual rate of the use of production capacities in Russian industry, the average annual number of people employed in the national economy, the average annual value of fixed assets of transport and communications in constant 1990 prices. Our research demonstrates that in 2010–2018 the GDP elasticity to production infrastructure was decreasing. We explain this by the reduction in the volume of capital investments in the infrastructure sector’s fixed assets. In addition, we offer an analytical modification of the macroeconomic production function for 2020 in the context of the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus among the Russian population by introducing into this function the average annual rates of labor and infrastructure capacity use, which, along with the average annual rate of fixed assets capacity use are functions of the predicted values of the daily number of the infected Russian citizens. These predicted values are calculated by the time dependent Gaussian quadratic exponent estimated by the least squares. We present the accuracy of the forecast results for the 2020 spring trends of the daily number of Russian and Moscow population infected with the Wuhan coronavirus. The average APE forecast error for 30 days ahead for Russia is 10.4% and the same for five weeks for Moscow is 10%. Moreover, we make forecasts of the officially published daily number of infected Russian population for fall 2020 – spring 2021.
在武汉冠状病毒(严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型)在全球传播的背景下,交通和通信基础设施在确保经济增长方面发挥着重要作用。通信部分的作用随着疫情和相关的限制措施而增加,这些措施在一定程度上取代了运输部分。我们对俄罗斯联邦1990年至2018年的运输和通信基础设施(俄罗斯运输和通信部门的固定资产年均值)的宏观经济生产函数进行了计量经济学研究。该函数的论据是按1990年不变价格计算的固定资产年平均值、俄罗斯工业生产能力的年平均使用率、国民经济中就业的年平均人数、按1990年恒定价格计算的运输和通信固定资产的年平均值。我们的研究表明,2010-2018年,GDP对生产基础设施的弹性正在下降。我们通过基础设施部门固定资产资本投资量的减少来解释这一点。此外,在武汉冠状病毒在俄罗斯人口中传播的背景下,我们对2020年的宏观经济生产函数进行了分析修改,在该函数中引入了劳动力和基础设施能力使用的年均率,以及固定资产容量使用的年均率是俄罗斯公民每日感染人数预测值的函数。这些预测值是通过最小二乘估计的与时间相关的高斯二次指数来计算的。我们给出了2020年春季俄罗斯和莫斯科感染武汉冠状病毒的每日人数趋势预测结果的准确性。俄罗斯未来30天的平均APE预测误差为10.4%,莫斯科五周的预测误差为10%。此外,我们对2020年秋季至2021年春季官方公布的俄罗斯每日感染人数进行了预测。
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引用次数: 1
The economic order quantity taking into account additional information about the known quantile of the cumulative distribution function of the product’s sales volume 经济订单数量,考虑了有关产品销量累积分布函数的已知分位数的附加信息
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2020-09-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814X.2020.3.24.34
Z. Zenkova, W. Musoni
In modern logistics and supply chain management, the task of inventory management is paramount. The total costs of the enterprise and consequently, its profit, directly depend on the accuracy of calculating the volumes and terms of orders. In this work, the problem of increasing the accuracy of calculating the economic order quantity for a product was solved by involving additional information about the known quantile of a given level of the distribution function of the volume of product’s demand. The quantile information was used to recalculate the annual demand for the product, based on a modified estimator of the sales expectation for the period. The modified estimator is asymptotically unbiased, normal, and more accurate than the traditional sample mean in the sense of mean squared error. New formulas for calculating the economic order quantity and its confidence interval were presented and tested on real data on the monthly sales volumes of goods of a large retail store network over two years. It is shown that the classic way of mean calculation led to an underestimation of the volume of the economic order quantity, which in turn increased the risk of a shortage, and hence a drop in the quality of logistics services. The new calculation method also showed that the period between orders should be one day shorter. The work is practically significant; according to its results, recommendations are given to the enterprise.
在现代物流和供应链管理中,库存管理是最重要的任务。企业的总成本以及利润直接取决于订单数量和条款计算的准确性。在这项工作中,通过涉及产品需求量分布函数的给定水平的已知分位数的附加信息,解决了提高计算产品经济订货量准确性的问题。分位数信息被用来重新计算产品的年需求,基于一个修正的估计期间的销售预期。改进的估计量是渐近无偏的,正态的,并且在均方误差的意义上比传统的样本均值更准确。提出了计算经济订货量及其置信区间的新公式,并在某大型零售网络两年来的月度商品销售量实际数据上进行了检验。结果表明,经典的平均计算方法导致了对经济订单数量的低估,这反过来增加了短缺的风险,从而降低了物流服务的质量。新的计算方法还表明,订单之间的间隔应该缩短一天。这项工作具有实际意义;根据研究结果,对企业提出了建议。
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引用次数: 0
Problems of modeling the valuation of residential properties 住宅物业估价建模问题
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2020-09-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814X.2020.3.7.23
Tatiana Bogdanova, A. Kamalova, T. Kravchenko, A. Poltorak
The solution of the housing problem for many decades has been and remains one of the most important tasks facing the nation. The problem of modeling the value of residential properties is becoming more and more urgent, since a high-quality forecast makes it possible to reduce risks, both for government bodies and for realtors specializing in the purchase and sale of residential properties, as well as for ordinary citizens who buy or sell apartments. Predictive models allow us to get an adequate assessment of both the current and future situation on the residential property market, to identify trends in the cost of housing and the factors influencing these changes. This involves both the qualitative characteristics of the particular property, and the general condition and the dynamics of the real estate market. Russia is characterized by significant differences in the level of development of regions, therefore, by differences in trends of supply and demand prices for real estate. Valuation of residential properties at the regional level is particularly important, since all of the above determines the social and economic importance of this problem. This article presents a comprehensive model for estimating the value of residential properties in the secondary housing market of Moscow using decision tree methods and ordinal logistic regression. A predictive model of the level of housing comfort was built using the CRT decision tree method. The results of this forecast are used as input information for an ordinal logistic regression model for estimating the value of residential properties in the secondary market of Moscow. Testing the model on real data showed the high predictive ability of the model we generated. MODELING OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
几十年来,解决住房问题一直是并且仍然是国家面临的最重要的任务之一。住宅物业价值建模的问题变得越来越紧迫,因为高质量的预测可以降低政府机构和专门从事住宅物业买卖的房地产经纪人以及买卖公寓的普通公民的风险。预测模型使我们能够充分评估住宅物业市场目前和未来的情况,找出房屋成本的趋势和影响这些变化的因素。这既涉及特定物业的质量特征,也涉及房地产市场的总体状况和动态。俄罗斯的特点是各地区的发展水平存在显著差异,因此,房地产的供求价格趋势也存在差异。在区域层面对住宅物业进行估值尤为重要,因为上述所有因素决定了这个问题的社会和经济重要性。本文提出了一个综合模型,用于估计住宅物业的价值在莫斯科二级住房市场使用决策树方法和有序逻辑回归。采用CRT决策树法建立了住房舒适度的预测模型。这一预测的结果被用作一个有序逻辑回归模型的输入信息,用于估计莫斯科二级市场住宅物业的价值。在实际数据上对模型进行了测试,结果表明该模型具有较高的预测能力。社会和经济系统的建模
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引用次数: 0
Developing a knowledge-based system for the design of innovative product creation processes for network enterprises 基于知识的网络化企业创新产品开发流程设计系统的研究
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2020-09-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814X.2020.3.35.53
Yury F. Telnov, V. Kazakov, V. Trembach
The relevance of developing knowledge-based systems used to support innovative processes for creating products and services is related to the objective need to reduce the life cycle of products under the influence of modern digital technologies in developing network enterprises. Well-known research results in the field of model-oriented design of products, processes, systems and enterprises do not fully provide semantic interoperability in the interaction of stakeholders in the innovation process. The aim of this work is to build a knowledge-based system architecture that implements semantic interoperability of network enterprise participants at various stages of the product lifecycle. The work is based on the use of a model-oriented approach to building a digital thread at all stages of the product lifecycle, an ontological approach to semantic modeling of a distributed knowledge base and a multiagent approach to organizing interaction between interested participants in the innovation process. The paper proposes a functional architecture of a knowledge-based system that includes modules for planning the innovation process, forming product value characteristics and functional requirements, construction and value chain design. A multi-level system of ontologies of the innovation process is also developed and its application in the work of functional modules that provide access to MODELING OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
开发以知识为基础的系统以支持创造产品和服务的创新过程的相关性,与在发展网络企业时,在现代数字技术的影响下缩短产品生命周期的客观需要有关。面向模型的产品、流程、系统和企业设计领域的知名研究成果并没有在创新过程中的利益相关者互动中充分提供语义互操作性。这项工作的目的是建立一个基于知识的系统架构,在产品生命周期的各个阶段实现网络企业参与者的语义互操作性。这项工作的基础是使用面向模型的方法在产品生命周期的所有阶段构建数字线程,使用本体论方法对分布式知识库进行语义建模,使用多智能体方法组织创新过程中感兴趣的参与者之间的互动。本文提出了一个基于知识的系统的功能架构,包括创新过程规划、产品价值特征和功能需求形成、构建和价值链设计等模块。还开发了创新过程的多层次本体系统,并将其应用于提供社会和经济系统建模的功能模块的工作中
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引用次数: 3
Fuzzy regression model of the impact of technology on living standards 技术对生活水平影响的模糊回归模型
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2020-09-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814X.2020.3.67.81
Yury Zelenkov, Elizaveta Lashkevich
This paper proposes a model of the impact of technology on the standard of living based on fuzzy linear regression. The Human Development Index (HDI) was chosen as a dependent variable as an indicator of the health and well-being of the population. The explanatory variables are the Network Readiness Index (NRI), which measures the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) on society and the development of the nation, and the Global Innovation Index (GII), which measures the driving forces of economic growth. The analysis is based on data for 2019 for four groups of countries with different levels of GDP per capita. For developed countries, the positive and balanced impact of innovation and ICT on living standards has been confirmed. For two groups of developing countries (upper and lower middle income), the GII coefficient was found to be negative. A more indepth analysis showed that this is due to the state of political and social institutions. This fact means that without a simultaneous increase in the maturity of institutions, stimulation of other areas of innovative development (education, knowledge and technology, infrastructure) leads to a decrease in the quality of life.
本文提出了一个基于模糊线性回归的技术对生活水平影响模型。人类发展指数被选为一个因变量,作为人口健康和福祉的指标。解释变量包括网络就绪指数(NRI)和全球创新指数(GII),前者衡量信息和通信技术对社会和国家发展的影响,后者衡量经济增长的驱动力。该分析基于2019年四组人均GDP水平不同的国家的数据。对发达国家来说,创新和信息和通信技术对生活水平的积极和平衡影响已经得到证实。对于两组发展中国家(中等偏上收入和中等偏下收入),GII系数为负值。更深入的分析表明,这是由于政治和社会制度的状况。这一事实意味着,如果不同时提高机构的成熟度,刺激其他创新发展领域(教育、知识和技术、基础设施)就会导致生活质量下降。
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引用次数: 5
An approach to identifying bots in social networks based on the special association of classifiers 一种基于分类器特殊关联的社交网络机器人识别方法
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2020-09-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814X.2020.3.54.66
V. Kuzmin, A. Menisov, I. Shastun
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引用次数: 0
An approach to assessing the functioning of hierarchical socio-economic systems and decision-making based on the EFRA software package 基于EFRA软件包评估等级社会经济系统的运作和决策的方法
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2020-09-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814X.2020.3.82.95
R. Zhukov
Modern models and methods for evaluating complex systems are associated with hierarchical socioeconomic systems (HSES) implemented on the basis of software systems (expert systems and decision support systems) and used at the regional and municipal levels of government. As usual, such systems have the functionality of analytics and building scenario variants for the development of research objects. However, they do not give quantified values of the state and impact factors at which the complex system under consideration can come to a given state. At the same time, the question of determining such a set state associated with the construction of standards (expected values) for elements, classes or levels of the HSES is still open. In some cases, to make an informed decision it is sufficient to obtain aggregated quantitative estimates and recommendations concerning the further functioning of the research object. This article presents the author’s approach, which allows us to evaluate the functioning of hierarchical socio-economic systems and provides expert opinions for making management decisions implemented on the basis of the EFRA software package. The algorithm includes stages of analysis and synthesis-stages of the basic method of system analysis. The novelty of the proposed approach is the possibility of taking into account the specific conditions of the status and impact of complex systems that provides an opportunity to build their own standard. Additionally, the procedures of standardization and normalization (reduction to a scale from 0 to 1) make it possible to avoid the influence of different units of measurement of results of operation and economies of scale. On the example of regions of the Central Federal district according to data for 2014–2017, estimates of the use of information and telecommunications technologies by the population were obtained, and the optimization problem was solved for the Tula Region, on the basis of which directions related to increasing the region’s readiness for digitalization were proposed. INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGIES IN BUSINESS
用于评估复杂系统的现代模型和方法与基于软件系统(专家系统和决策支持系统)实施的分级社会经济系统(HSES)相关联,并在地区和市政府层面使用。与往常一样,此类系统具有分析和构建研究对象开发场景变体的功能。然而,它们没有给出所考虑的复杂系统可以达到给定状态的状态和影响因素的量化值。与此同时,确定与HSES的元素、类别或级别的标准(期望值)构建相关的这种设定状态的问题仍然悬而未决。在某些情况下,为了做出知情的决定,获得关于研究对象进一步运作的汇总定量估计和建议就足够了。本文介绍了作者的方法,使我们能够评估分级社会经济系统的功能,并为在EFRA软件包的基础上做出管理决策提供专家意见。该算法包括系统分析的基本方法的分析阶段和综合阶段。所提出的方法的新颖性在于,有可能考虑到复杂系统的地位和影响的具体条件,这为建立自己的标准提供了机会。此外,标准化和规范化程序(从0缩减到1)可以避免操作结果和规模经济的不同计量单位的影响。根据2014-2017年的数据,以中央联邦区各地区为例,获得了人口对信息和电信技术使用的估计,并解决了图拉地区的优化问题,在此基础上提出了提高该地区数字化准备程度的相关方向。商业中的信息系统和技术
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引用次数: 2
The advantages of cognitive approach for enterprise management in modern conditions 认知方法在现代条件下对企业管理的优势
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.36.47
R. Karayev, N. Sadikhova
The paper provides a brief description of cognitive management, which opens up unique opportunities for the effective management of enterprises in modern complex and unstable conditions. The problems of commercializing this promising paradigm are discussed. It is pointed out that the main, critical one of these problems is due to the lack of developed engineering of cognitive management. A conceptual framework for solving this problem is proposed, based on the convergence of the ideas and methods of the “cognitive school” and the empirical experience gained in knowledge engineering. The results of using the conceptual framework in four research projects of different industry orientations, with different internal conditions and different dynamics of the external environment are presented. The engineering prospects of the proposed framework are discussed in terms of the commercialization of the cognitive school identified by H. Mintzberg, B. Ahlstrand and D. Lampel 30 years ago.
本文简要介绍了认知管理,它为在现代复杂不稳定的条件下对企业进行有效管理开辟了独特的机遇。讨论了将这一有前途的范例商业化的问题。指出这些问题的主要和关键之一是由于缺乏发达的认知管理工程。在“认知学派”的思想和方法与知识工程的经验经验融合的基础上,提出了解决这一问题的概念框架。本文给出了在不同行业导向、不同内部条件和不同外部环境动态的四个研究项目中使用该概念框架的结果。从30年前H. Mintzberg、B. Ahlstrand和D. Lampel提出的认知学派的商业化角度,讨论了所提出框架的工程前景。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling and optimization of plans for railway freight transport performed by a transport operator 由运输经营者执行的铁路货运计划的建模和优化
IF 0.6 Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.17323/2587-814x.2020.2.21.35
F. Belousov, I. Nevolin, N. Khachatryan
This paper offers an approach for solving a problem that arises for railway transport operators. The task is to manage the fleet of freight railcars optimally in terms of profit maximization. The source data for the transport operator is a list of requests received from customers, as well as the location of railcars at the beginning of the planning period. The request formed by each customer consists of departure station, destination station, name and volume of cargo that the customer would like to transport. The request also contains the rate that the customer has to pay to the transport operator for each loaded wagon transported. Planning is carried out for a month in advance and consists, on the one hand, in selecting the most profitable requests for execution, on the other hand – in building a sequence of cargo and empty runs that will fulfill the selected requests with the greatest efficiency. Direct transportation of loaded and empty railway cars is carried out by Russian Railways with preknown tariffs and time standards for each of the routes. At the same time, tariffs for driving loaded wagons are additional costs for the customer of the route specified in the request (customers pay both the transport operator for the use of wagons and Russian Railways); transportation of empty wagons is paid by transport operators. To solve this problem, one of the possible ways to reduce it to a largedimensional linear programming problem is proposed. An algorithm is proposed, the result of which is a problem written in the format of a linear programming problem. To demonstrate the approach clearly, a simplified problem statement is considered that takes into account only the main factors of the modeled process. The paper also shows an example of a numerical solution of the problem based on simple model data. MODELING OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
本文为铁路运输经营者解决这一问题提供了一种方法。任务是在利润最大化的条件下对货运列车车队进行最优管理。运输运营商的源数据是从客户收到的请求列表,以及规划期开始时轨道车辆的位置。每个客户形成的请求包括出发站、目的地站、客户想要运输的货物名称和数量。请求还包含客户必须为每辆装载的货车向运输运营商支付的费率。计划是提前一个月进行的,一方面是选择最有利可图的执行请求,另一方面是建立一系列货物和空载运行,以最大的效率完成所选的请求。俄罗斯铁路公司对每条线路的载货和空车进行直接运输,其收费和时间标准都是事先知道的。同时,驾驶载货货车的关税是客户在请求中指定的路线上的额外费用(客户向运输经营者和俄罗斯铁路公司支付货车使用费);空车的运输费由运输经营者支付。为了解决这一问题,提出了一种将其简化为大维线性规划问题的可能方法。提出了一种算法,其结果是一个用线性规划问题的形式写出来的问题。为了清楚地演示该方法,考虑了一个简化的问题陈述,它只考虑了建模过程的主要因素。文中还给出了一个基于简单模型数据的数值求解实例。社会和经济系统的建模
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Biznes Informatika-Business Informatics
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