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The OSCE in the Era of a Threat to the European Security ‒ Challenges and Prospects 欧洲安全受到威胁时代的欧安组织——挑战与前景
IF 0.5 Q4 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.15211/soveurope72021144151
Igor Shcherbak
The article analyses the fundamental research “Multilateralism in Transition: Challenges and Opportunities for the OSCE”, prepared by a team of Swiss experts under the leadership of the renowned Swiss diplomat Thomas Greminger (the Permanent Representative of Switzerland to the OSCE, the UN and the International Organizations in Vienna). The fact that T. Greminger served as Secretary General of the OSCE from 2017 to 2020 gives added value to the research. This created a unique opportunity to combine in the research his vast experience, personal impressions from the observance of the “internal kitchen” of the Organization and his analyses of the main directions of the work of the OSCE. The research focuses on the central problems of the OSCE’s activities- preservation of the European security, prevention and regulation of conflicts, new challenges to the European security, strategic partnership of the OSCE with major international organizations, introduction of modern technologies to the operational activities of the Organization, reformation and modernization of the OSCE’ s management system and operational functions. Special attention is payed to the revitalization of the OSCE Structured Dialogue ‒ the main platform for discussions of the most important politico-military problems and confidence-building measures, exchange of information on current perceptions of threat, military capacity, de-escalation measures, best practices for the prevention and improved management of military incidents. The book contains a positive assessment of the concept of cooperative actions aimed at a collective response to the new challenges to the European security: climate change and environment destruction, impact of technology on the societies, illegal migration, pandemics, cross- border organised crime, cyber threats, nuclear security. The authors of the book consider that the collective security initiative could stimulate trust, convergence of interests of participating states and finally would improve European security through cooperation. They also bring to attention the problems of the longstanding reform of the OSCE through presentation of the ten-point reform agenda, including management reform of the OSCE Secretariat, reform of the budget cycle, information security and automating work processes. leveraging partnerships with international and regional organizations.
本文分析了由瑞士著名外交家托马斯·格列明格(瑞士常驻欧安组织、联合国和维也纳国际组织代表)领导的瑞士专家小组编写的基础研究报告《转型中的多边主义:欧安组织的挑战与机遇》。格雷明格在2017年至2020年期间担任欧安组织秘书长,这一事实为该研究提供了附加价值。这为在研究中结合他的丰富经验、观察本组织“内部厨房”的个人印象以及他对欧安组织主要工作方向的分析创造了一个独特的机会。研究的重点是欧安组织活动的核心问题-维护欧洲安全,预防和调节冲突,欧洲安全面临的新挑战,欧安组织与主要国际组织的战略伙伴关系,将现代技术引入本组织的业务活动,欧安组织管理系统和业务职能的改革和现代化。特别注意恢复欧安组织结构对话的活力- -这是讨论最重要的政治-军事问题和建立信任措施、交流关于当前对威胁的看法、军事能力、降级措施、预防和改进军事事件管理的最佳做法的主要平台。该书积极评价了合作行动的概念,旨在集体应对欧洲安全面临的新挑战:气候变化和环境破坏、技术对社会的影响、非法移民、流行病、跨界有组织犯罪、网络威胁、核安全。该书的作者认为,集体安全倡议可以促进参与国的信任和利益融合,最终通过合作改善欧洲的安全。他们还通过提出十点改革议程提请注意欧安组织长期改革的问题,其中包括欧安组织秘书处的管理改革、预算周期改革、信息安全和工作程序自动化。利用与国际和区域组织的伙伴关系。
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引用次数: 0
New Strategic Foresight in EU 欧盟新的战略眼光
IF 0.5 Q4 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.15211/soveurope720215060
Vadim Tsirenshchikov
The article deals with the consideration of the concept and practice of the new strategic foresight being developed in the European Union. It summarizes the EU's experience in clarifying the conceptual framework, in the conceptual apparatus, methodology and expected practice of using strategic foresight for the development and implementation of policies to achieve the declared goals of long-term development. The main attention is paid to the analysis of four interrelated factors assessed by the European Commission as determining its target setting for sustainable development: socio-economic, geopolitical, green and digital, as well as issues of political decisions monitoring. Based on the results of the work, conclusions were made that are of fundamental importance for the formation of the prognostic component of domestic policy, with a focus on the general socio-economic and political conditions necessary to create a strategic forecasting system that is not yet available in Russia, adequate to the requirements of modern development.
本文对欧盟正在发展的新战略远见的概念和实践进行了思考。它总结了欧盟在澄清概念框架、概念机构、方法和预期做法方面的经验,即利用战略远见制定和执行政策,以实现已宣布的长期发展目标。主要关注对欧洲联盟委员会评估的四个相互关联的因素的分析,这四个因素是确定其可持续发展目标的因素:社会经济、地缘政治、绿色和数字,以及政治决策监测问题。根据这项工作的结果,得出了对形成国内政策的预测组成部分具有根本重要性的结论,重点是建立一个俄罗斯尚不具备的、足以满足现代发展要求的战略预测系统所需的一般社会经济和政治条件。
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引用次数: 1
UK–Zimbabwean Relations: the Past and the Present 英国-津巴布韦关系:过去和现在
IF 0.5 Q4 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.15211/soveurope7202196104
S. Karamaev
The author traces the stages of development of British–Zimbabwean relations over the past four decades. The work analyzes not only the history, but also the current state of relations between Great Britain and Zimbabwe and assesses the prospects for their development. The author set the task of showing how political cooperation between the former metropolis and its colony developed, the importance of the change of governments and the personality of the heads of state. A special attention is paid to the first president of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, who ruled the country for 37 years. An attempt has been made to identify the causes of the crisis in bilateral relations and to assess the attempts to overcome and to move in a progressive development. In addition, the author considers the problem of how the context of the colonial past, economic development, the land issue and the internal policy of Zimbabwe influenced the official London’s position in relation to Harare. Zimbabwe is one of the key states in southeast Africa, traditionally viewed by the UK as a sphere of its interests. Using itsexample, certain conclusions can be drawn about London's foreign policy approach to African countries, as well as the contradictions which become obstacles to the relations’ normalization.
作者追溯了过去四十年来英国与津巴布韦关系的发展阶段。这项工作不仅分析了英国和津巴布韦关系的历史,还分析了两国关系的现状,并评估了两国关系发展的前景。作者的任务是展示前大都市与其殖民地之间的政治合作是如何发展的,政府更迭的重要性以及国家元首的个性。津巴布韦首任总统罗伯特·穆加贝受到了特别关注,他统治了津巴布韦37年。已努力查明双边关系危机的原因,并评估克服和逐步发展的努力。此外,作者还考虑了殖民历史、经济发展、土地问题和津巴布韦的内部政策如何影响伦敦官方对哈拉雷的立场。津巴布韦是东南非的关键国家之一,传统上被英国视为其利益范围。以它为例,可以得出伦敦对非洲国家外交政策的某些结论,以及阻碍两国关系正常化的矛盾。
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引用次数: 0
Predators in Geopolitics and Europe 地缘政治与欧洲的掠夺者
IF 0.5 Q4 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-12-31 DOI: 10.15211/soveurope72021152161
M. Neimark
Transformational processes in the world are rapidly accelerating and in different versions are complexly intertwined. Deep rifts are taking place in the geopolitical space. The most acute contradictions and multidirectional tendencies of world development accumulated in the previous period continue. New points of reference have emerged in assessing the close relationship and interdependence of macroeconomic and military-political processes, which form previously unknown problem fields of world politics. Conflict confrontation between the key world centers of power, capable of creating various geopolitical configurations, where expanded opportunities for promoting their national and state interests appear. The period of intelligible, more or less ordered competitive interactions in the world seems to be coming to an end. In Western-centric geopolitical associations, the not always expected and predictable regrouping of forces and interests is taking place more frequently, fraught with serious strategic consequences. Recently in the development of the transatlantic partnership, the contradictions, problem nodes and pain points that have complicated the allied ties between the United States and the European Union have been contrasted. Disagreements in the US-EU-NATO geopolitical triangle have noticeably increased. A sign of these disagreements was the publicly announced diagnosis of "NATO brain death", which E. Macron delivered to the North Atlantic alliance in December 2019. New geopolitical dissonances have emerged in EU relations with key strategic partners.
世界上的变革进程正在迅速加速,并且以不同的形式复杂地交织在一起。地缘政治领域正在发生深刻的裂痕。上一时期积累起来的世界发展的最尖锐矛盾和多向趋势继续存在。在评估宏观经济进程和军事政治进程之间的密切关系和相互依存方面出现了新的参考点,这些进程构成了世界政治中以前未知的问题领域。冲突世界主要权力中心之间的对抗,能够创造各种地缘政治格局,在那里扩大了促进其民族和国家利益的机会。世界上可理解的、或多或少有序的竞争互动的时代似乎即将结束。在以西方为中心的地缘政治联盟中,力量和利益的重组并不总是预期和可预测的,这种重组正在更频繁地发生,充满了严重的战略后果。近年来,在跨大西洋伙伴关系的发展过程中,美国与欧盟同盟关系复杂化的矛盾、问题节点和痛点得到了对比。美国-欧盟-北约地缘政治三角的分歧明显增加。这些分歧的一个迹象是,马克龙于2019年12月向北约公开宣布了“北约脑死亡”的诊断。欧盟与主要战略伙伴的关系出现了新的地缘政治不和谐。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Structural Factors on the Financial Stability of European Pension Systems 结构性因素对欧洲养老金体系金融稳定性的影响
IF 0.5 Q4 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.15211/soveurope62021120132
I. Bitkina
The study presents an assessment of the impact of structural factors on the financial stability of pension systems in European countries. The purpose of the study is to determine the internal structural factors that have the most significant impact on the financial stability of pension systems in European countries. A review of the scientific literature dealing with the study of the financial stability of European pension systems is carried out. The correlation between the concepts of "financial stability" and "financial resiliency" is determined, the structural factors of pension models are identified and their grouping is carried out. The ranking of European pension systems by the level of their stability (including periods of financial crises) is carried out. The reasons for the decline in the stability and resiliency of European pension systems at this stage of development are identified. The study shows the internal structural factors that have a positive or negative impact on the degree of financial stability and financial resiliency of European pension systems. The conclusions obtained in the study can be used in the formation of the state pension policy of European countries and the choice of directions for reforming pension systems
这项研究评估了结构性因素对欧洲国家养老金制度财务稳定性的影响。该研究的目的是确定对欧洲国家养老金制度的财务稳定性影响最大的内部结构因素。对研究欧洲养老金制度财务稳定性的科学文献进行了综述。确定了“金融稳定性”和“金融弹性”概念之间的相关性,确定了养老金模型的结构因素,并对其进行了分组。根据欧洲养老金制度的稳定程度(包括金融危机时期)对其进行排名。确定了欧洲养老金制度在这一发展阶段稳定性和弹性下降的原因。该研究显示了对欧洲养老金体系的金融稳定程度和金融弹性有积极或消极影响的内部结构因素。研究得出的结论可用于欧洲国家养老金政策的制定和养老金制度改革方向的选择
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引用次数: 0
The EU Erasmus+ Programme During the COVID-19 Pandemic 新冠肺炎大流行期间的欧盟伊拉斯谟+计划
IF 0.5 Q4 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.15211/soveurope6202197108
A. Fominykh
The article critically reflects upon various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on the EU funded Erasmus+ academic cooperation programme. A complete or partial shutdown of academic mobility, imposition of quarantine, and forced introduction of digital teaching and learning technologies have become the most prominent consequences of the pandemic for the European universities. Numerous surveys among students, teachers and experts in higher education have shown many vulnerabilities of the Erasmus programme requiring improvement. Responding to the COVID-19 challenges, the EU and university community are updating the Erasmus programme for the period 2021‒2027, in order to strengthen it as a tool to promote European values and increase its resilience to withstand external threats.
文章批判性地反思了新冠肺炎疫情对欧盟资助的伊拉斯谟+学术合作计划的影响的各个方面。对欧洲大学来说,完全或部分关闭学术流动、实施隔离以及强制引入数字教学技术已成为疫情最突出的后果。对学生、教师和高等教育专家进行的大量调查显示,伊拉斯谟计划的许多弱点需要改进。为应对新冠肺炎挑战,欧盟和大学界正在更新2021年至2027年期间的伊拉斯谟计划,以加强该计划,将其作为促进欧洲价值观的工具,并提高其抵御外部威胁的能力。
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引用次数: 0
“New” Regionalism as an Anti-crisis Strategy for the European Union “新”地区主义:欧盟的反危机战略
IF 0.5 Q4 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.15211/soveurope620214251
Roman Bugrov
The purpose of the article is to analyze possible strategies for the development of the EU, as a key institutional driver of integration that plays a visible role both at the regional and global levels. In recent decades the EU pursued a policy of dynamic expansion, which nowadays meets with resistance from both the “external environment” and within the EU. In this regard, there is a need to determine the limits of the development of regional integration, this is especially important in the context of modern global crisis. This issue is considered from the point of view of balancing between widening and deepening of integration processes. Enlargement (considered more as an expansion) and deepening may put the EU before a choice of priorities; however, they are not mutually exclusive processes. The main challenge is the choice of a strategy that is subordinated to the political will and interests of decision-makers. In order to analytically address the issue, the concept of regionalism and its modern version of “open” regionalism is used as a theoretical approach. It is outlined the extra-regional (global) nature of the EU development strategy. The author concludes that the current anti-crisis strategy of the EU is the construction of a global trading system with elements of regulatory mechanisms that ensures the sustainable competitiveness of the EU, even at the expense of internal centralization.
本文的目的是分析欧盟发展的可能战略,作为一体化的关键制度驱动力,在区域和全球层面都发挥着明显的作用。近几十年来,欧盟奉行的是动态扩张的政策,但这一政策在今天遭到了来自“外部环境”和欧盟内部的阻力。在这方面,有必要确定区域一体化发展的限度,这在现代全球危机的背景下尤其重要。这个问题是从平衡扩大和深化一体化进程的角度来考虑的。扩大(更多地被认为是扩张)和深化可能会把欧盟置于优先选择之前;然而,它们并不是相互排斥的过程。主要的挑战是选择一种服从于决策者的政治意愿和利益的战略。为了分析这一问题,本文将区域主义的概念及其现代版本的“开放”区域主义作为理论途径。它概述了欧盟发展战略的区域外(全球)性质。作者的结论是,欧盟当前的反危机战略是构建一个具有监管机制要素的全球贸易体系,以确保欧盟的可持续竞争力,即使以牺牲内部集中化为代价。
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引用次数: 0
The State in the Complex Networks of the UN Human Rights Council 联合国人权理事会复杂网络中的国家
IF 0.5 Q4 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.15211/soveurope62021155166
A. Boyashov
Having developed into a political and ideological concept since the 1990s, global governance has evolved as a priority of the European Union. Although the EU promotes the idea of state decentralization within global governance at the UN, in the EU itself the state is paramount. This article examines the structure of the complex networks of the UN Human Rights Council. The scholarly problem of the article is the contradiction between the key decision-making role of the state in the HRC and increasingly complex social networks of the UN system. The Council is structured in a way that ensures the active participation of transnational corporations, NGOs, and EU supranational institutions in its agenda. Does this hypothetically mean that the role of the state in the UN system and in international affairs is declining? The focus of this article is on the ties between states, NGOs, and international organizations in the UN Human Rights Council. These ties suggest that the state is included in complex networks and enhances their sustainment.
自20世纪90年代以来,全球治理已发展成为一个政治和意识形态概念,并已成为欧洲联盟的一个优先事项。尽管欧盟在联合国的全球治理中提倡国家权力下放的理念,但在欧盟本身,国家是至高无上的。本文考察了联合国人权理事会复杂网络的结构。这篇文章的学术问题是国家在人权委员会中的关键决策角色与联合国系统日益复杂的社会网络之间的矛盾。理事会的结构确保跨国公司、非政府组织和欧盟超国家机构积极参与其议程。这是否意味着国家在联合国系统和国际事务中的作用正在下降?本文的重点是国家、非政府组织和联合国人权理事会国际组织之间的关系。这些联系表明,国家被纳入了复杂的网络,并加强了它们的维持。
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引用次数: 1
“Global Britain’s” Foreign Policy: Special Features of “Sovereign” Atlanticism “全球英国”外交政策:“主权”大西洋主义的特点
IF 0.5 Q4 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.15211/soveurope620213041
K. Godovanyuk
The article outlines the special features of the UK foreign policy described as an outcome of the request for a new international role after the withdrawal from the EU. Proceeding from the theory of rational choice, the author concludes that the UK uses relations with Washington to adapt the idea of “Global Britain” to the changes in the international environment, taking into account the reduction of its own weight in international politics. It is highlighted that the synchronization of the UK and the US international agendas is taking place against the backdrop of deteriorated UK-EU relations. Atlanticism, along with disengagement from the EU, became the ideological basis of a new British foreign policy aimed at ensuring Western unity, while increasing its fragmentation. The significance of the new Atlantic Charter and the military-political alliance AUKUS for the foreign strategy of the UK is assessed. Despite the global nature of the articulated goals, the United Kingdom operates in the logic of a middle power in the face of intense international competition. It is concluded that the special emphasis on “hard” power and the strengthening of military-political alliances based on liberal values does not solve the strategic dilemmas of Britain, which will still have to balance between the major international actors.
这篇文章概述了英国外交政策的特点,描述了英国在退出欧盟后要求新的国际角色的结果。从理性选择理论出发,作者得出结论,英国利用与华盛顿的关系来适应国际环境的变化,考虑到自身在国际政治中的权重下降。值得强调的是,英美国际议程的同步是在英欧关系恶化的背景下发生的。大西洋主义,连同脱离欧盟,成为英国新外交政策的意识形态基础,旨在确保西方的团结,同时增加其分裂。评估了新大西洋宪章和军事政治联盟AUKUS对英国外交战略的意义。尽管明确的目标具有全球性质,但面对激烈的国际竞争,联合王国仍以中等大国的逻辑运作。结论是,特别强调“硬”实力和加强基于自由主义价值观的军事-政治联盟并不能解决英国的战略困境,它仍然需要在主要国际行动者之间取得平衡。
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引用次数: 1
The Trinity of the Processes of Formation of the New World Order 新世界秩序形成过程的三位一体
IF 0.5 Q4 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.15211/soveurope62021190200
V. Iokhin
Knowledge of the directions of reformating the modern unstable world order allows Russia to determine its role which it can play in this process and its new format. Therefore, the purpose of our research is to identify the main trends in the development of political, ideological, civilizational, geopolitical processes that affect the formation of a new configuration of the world in connection with the transformations dictated by the change of the technological order. For such a study, the method of complex analysis of these processes and the method of comparisons were used in relation to a new model of human existence, which is formed under the influence of the transition to a new technological order. As a result, the author comes to the conclusion that all these processes, both individually and in combination, inevitably lead to the revival of the model of the bipolar world, but in its modified form. However, what is happening with the change of the technological way of life pushes these problems into the background, while the dilemma – to be or not to be for humanity as a species ‒ comes to the forefront with threatening force. It is between these "to be" or "not to be" the main watershed will take place between East and West in their confrontation passes.
俄罗斯对改革现代不稳定的世界秩序的方向的了解,使其能够确定在这一过程中可以发挥的作用及其新形式。因此,我们研究的目的是确定政治、意识形态、文明和地缘政治进程发展的主要趋势,这些趋势会影响世界新格局的形成,并与技术秩序变化所带来的变革相联系。在这项研究中,对这些过程进行复杂分析的方法和比较的方法被用于一种新的人类生存模式,这种模式是在向新的技术秩序过渡的影响下形成的。因此,作者得出的结论是,所有这些过程,无论是单独的还是组合的,都不可避免地导致两极世界模式的复兴,但其形式是经过修改的。然而,随着技术生活方式的改变,正在发生的事情将这些问题推到了背景中,而人类作为一个物种生存与否的困境则以威胁性的力量走到了最前沿。正是在这些“成为”或“不成为”之间,东西方在对抗通道中的主要分水岭将发生。
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引用次数: 0
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Contemporary Europe-Sovremennaya Evropa
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