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The Behavioral Economics of John Maynard Keynes 约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的行为经济学
Pub Date : 2022-12-13 DOI: 10.4337/9781802204896
R. Schettkat
After the publication of Keynes’ “General Theory,” economics was frequently described as schizophrenia: (neo-) classical at the micro-level, but Keynesian at the macro-level. In actuality, Keynes’ revolution was, to a substantial part, based on the behavioral micro-foundations of the world we live in, which has been dismissed as ad hocery, or simply ignored or reclassified in the neoclassical synthesis. Keynes’ General Theory is truly general. It includes the full-employment equilibrium as a special case. In addition, its microeconomic foundations are broader than the extremely narrow behavioral assumption of the neoclassical model. Consequently, we argue that Keynes’ microeconomics – although not fully worked out - is actually revolutionary. This may be difficult for (neo-) classical economists to accept, but it is strongly confirmed by the recent results in behavioral economics. Keynes’ macroeconomics is the result of his microeconomics. Keynes’ theory is a criticism of (neo-) classical economics, where he offers alternatives from micro to macro. It is truly a general theory, micro and macro.
在凯恩斯的《通论》出版后,经济学经常被描述为精神分裂症:在微观层面上是(新)古典主义,但在宏观层面上是凯恩斯主义。实际上,凯恩斯的革命在很大程度上是建立在我们所生活的世界的微观行为基础之上的,这被认为是无稽之谈,或者被忽视,或者在新古典综合理论中被重新分类。凯恩斯的通论是真正的通论。它把充分就业均衡作为一个特例。此外,它的微观经济基础比新古典主义模型中极其狭隘的行为假设更为广泛。因此,我们认为,凯恩斯的微观经济学——尽管没有得到充分的研究——实际上是革命性的。对于(新)古典经济学家来说,这可能很难接受,但行为经济学最近的研究结果有力地证实了这一点。凯恩斯的宏观经济学是他的微观经济学的结果。凯恩斯的理论是对(新)古典经济学的批评,在古典经济学中,他提供了从微观到宏观的替代方案。它确实是一个宏观和微观的通用理论。
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引用次数: 5
Who Shall Live? 谁将活下去?
Pub Date : 2022-10-10 DOI: 10.1142/8167
V. Fuchs
AbstractGood health and long life have traditionally been among the most prized goals of mankind. In every age and in every land there have been significant efforts to postpone death, whether through sacred dance and song, the imbibing of magic potions, or the application of the most modern medical techniques….
摘要健康长寿历来是人类最珍视的目标之一。在每一个时代,在每一个地方,都有重大的努力来推迟死亡,无论是通过神圣的舞蹈和歌曲,吸收魔法药水,还是应用最现代的医疗技术....
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引用次数: 148
Patience and Comparative Development 耐心与比较发展
Pub Date : 2021-11-11 DOI: 10.5282/UBM/EPUB.77858
U. Sunde, Thomas Dohmen, B. Enke, A. Falk, David B. Huffmann, Gerrit Meyerheim
This paper studies the relationship between patience and comparative development through a combination of reduced-form analyses and model estimations. Based on a globally representative dataset on time preference in 76 countries, we document two sets of stylized facts. First, patience is strongly correlated with per capita income and the accumulation of physical capital, human capital and productivity. These correlations hold across countries, subnational regions, and individuals. Second, the magnitude of the patience elasticity strongly increases in the level of aggregation. To provide an interpretive lens for these patterns, we analyze an OLG model in which savings and education decisions are endogenous to patience, aggregate production is characterized by capital-skill complementarities, and productivity implicitly depends on patience through a human capital externality. In our model estimations, general equilibrium effects alone account for a non-trivial share of the observed amplification effects, and an extension to human capital externalities can quantitatively match the empirical evidence.
本文采用简化形式分析和模型估计相结合的方法研究了耐心与比较发展之间的关系。基于76个国家的具有全球代表性的时间偏好数据集,我们记录了两组程式化的事实。首先,耐心与人均收入、物质资本、人力资本和生产率积累密切相关。这些相关性适用于各个国家、次国家区域和个人。第二,耐心弹性的大小在聚集水平上强烈增加。为了解释这些模式,我们分析了一个OLG模型,其中储蓄和教育决策对耐心是内生的,总生产以资本技能互补性为特征,生产率通过人力资本外部性隐含地依赖于耐心。在我们的模型估计中,一般均衡效应单独占观察到的放大效应的不小份额,并且延伸到人力资本外部性可以在数量上与经验证据相匹配。
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引用次数: 37
Overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a representative sample 过度自信与代表性样本的政治和金融行为
Pub Date : 2021-10-17 DOI: 10.5282/UBM/EPUB.77848
Steffen Ahrens, Ciril Bosch-Rosa, Bernhard Kassner
We study the relationship between overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a nationally representative sample. To do so, we introduce a new method of directly eliciting overconfidence of individuals that is simple to understand, quick to implement, and that captures respondents’ excess confidence in their own judgment. Our results show that, in line with theoretical predictions, an excessive degree of confidence in one’s judgment is correlated with lower portfolio diversification, larger stock-price forecasting errors, and more extreme political views. Additionally, we find that overconfidence is correlated with voting absenteeism. These results show that overconfidence is a bias that permeates several aspects of peoples’ lives.
我们研究了过度自信与全国代表性样本的政治和金融行为之间的关系。为此,我们引入了一种直接激发个人过度自信的新方法,这种方法简单易懂、实施快捷,而且能捕捉到受访者对自身判断的过度自信。我们的结果表明,与理论预测一致,对自己判断的过度自信与较低的投资组合分散性、较大的股票价格预测误差和更极端的政治观点相关。此外,我们还发现过度自信与投票缺席率相关。这些结果表明,过度自信是一种渗透到人们生活多个方面的偏见。
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引用次数: 1
Trade Shocks, Labor Markets and Elections in the First Globalization 第一次全球化中的贸易冲击、劳动力市场和选举
Pub Date : 2021-10-17 DOI: 10.5282/UBM/EPUB.77851
Richard Bräuer, Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, F. Kersting
This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture – the grain invasion from the Americas – in Prussia during the first globalization (1871-1913). We show that this shock accelerated the structural change in the Prussian economy through migration of workers to booming cities. In contrast to studies using today’s data, we do not observe declining per capita income and political polarization in counties affected by foreign competition. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalization, but depend on labor mobility. For our analysis, we digitize data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine it with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian trade data to isolate exogenous variation.
本文研究了在第一次全球化(1871-1913)期间,大规模农业贸易冲击——来自美洲的粮食入侵——对普鲁士的经济和政治影响。我们表明,这种冲击通过工人向繁荣城市的迁移加速了普鲁士经济的结构变化。与使用当前数据的研究相比,我们没有观察到受外国竞争影响的国家人均收入下降和政治两极分化。我们的研究结果表明,我们今天看到的贸易冲击的负面和持续影响并不是全球化的普遍特征,而是取决于劳动力流动。在我们的分析中,我们将普鲁士县一级的工业和农业普查数据数字化,并将其与产品一级的国家贸易数据结合起来。我们利用普鲁士栽培作物的跨区域变异和意大利贸易数据来分离外源变异。
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引用次数: 0
In sickness and in health? Health shocks and relationship breakdown: Empirical evidence from Germany 无论疾病还是健康?健康冲击和关系破裂:来自德国的经验证据
Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.4419/96973005
Christian Bünnings, Lucas Hafner, S. Reif, H. Tauchmann
From an economic perspective, marriage and long-term partnership can be seen as a riskpooling device. This informal insurance contract is, however, not fully enforceable. Each partner is free to leave when his or her support is needed in case of an adverse life event. An adverse health shock is a prominent example for such events. Since relationship breakdown itself is an extremely stressful experience, partnership may backfire as informal insurance against health risks, if health shocks increase the likelihood of relationship breakdown. We address this question empirically, using survey data from Germany. Results from various matching estimators indicate that adverse shocks to mental health substantially increase the probability of a couple splitting up over the following two years. In contrast, there is little effect of a sharp decrease in physical health on relationship stability. If at all, physical health shocks that hit both partners simultaneously stabilize a relationship.
从经济角度来看,婚姻和长期的伙伴关系可以被看作是一种风险分担机制。然而,这种非正式的保险合同并不是完全可执行的。当需要他或她的支持时,每一个伴侣都可以自由地离开,以防不利的生活事件。不良健康冲击是这类事件的一个突出例子。由于关系破裂本身就是一种极具压力的经历,如果健康冲击增加了关系破裂的可能性,那么伙伴关系作为针对健康风险的非正式保险可能会适得其反。我们利用来自德国的调查数据,从经验上解决了这个问题。各种匹配估计值的结果表明,在接下来的两年中,对精神健康的不利冲击大大增加了一对夫妇分手的可能性。相比之下,身体健康状况的急剧下降对关系的稳定性几乎没有影响。如果有的话,身体健康冲击同时打击双方稳定的关系。
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引用次数: 2
Leveraging census data to study migration flows in Latin America and the Caribbean: an assessment of the available data sources 利用人口普查数据研究拉丁美洲和加勒比的移徙流动:对现有数据来源的评估
Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.4054/mpidr-wp-2021-019
Julieta Bengochea Soria, E. Fava, Victoria Prieto Rosas, E. Zagheni
Although the scarcity of accurate and accessible data on international migration flows typically prevents a full understanding of migratory patterns, this might not be the case for Latin America, where high-quality census data on migrant flows is publicly available through the project International Migration in Latina America (IMILA). However, such data has mostly been used for research at the regional level because of the fragmented nature of their availability and the lack of English documentation. To tackle this issue, we consolidated data from the IMILA collection to provide a harmonized dataset with five-year flows by country of birth, sex, and age group, for 19 countries of destination and five census waves. Moreover, comparing IMILA to other two available data sources on flows to Latin America, we showed that IMILA provides a more accurate assessment of migration flows from North America and Europe, enables a better quantification of minor migration flows, and enhances the visibility of female migration.
虽然关于国际移徙流动的准确和可获得的数据的缺乏通常阻碍了对移徙模式的充分了解,但拉丁美洲的情况可能并非如此,在拉丁美洲,关于移徙流动的高质量人口普查数据可以通过拉丁美洲国际移徙项目公开获得。但是,这些数据大多用于区域一级的研究,因为它们的可用性是分散的,而且缺乏英文文件。为了解决这个问题,我们整合了IMILA收集的数据,提供了一个统一的数据集,其中包括19个目的国和5次人口普查浪潮的5年人口流动情况,按出生国、性别和年龄组分列。此外,通过将IMILA与其他两个关于拉丁美洲流动的可用数据来源进行比较,我们发现IMILA对来自北美和欧洲的移民流动提供了更准确的评估,能够更好地量化小规模移民流动,并提高了女性移民的可见度。
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引用次数: 1
Mortality Rates by College Degree Before and During COVID-19 COVID-19之前和期间按大学学位分列的死亡率
Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/w29328
A. Case, A. Deaton
It is now established that mortality and excess mortality from COVID-19 differed across racial and ethnic groups in 2020. Less is known about educational differences in mortality during the pandemic. We examine mortality rates by BA status within sex, age, and race/ethnic groups comparing 2020 with 2019. Mortality rates have increasingly differed by BA status in the US in recent years and there are good reasons to expect the gap to have widened further during the pandemic. Using publicly available provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics we find that mortality rates increased in 2020 over 2019 for those with and without a BA, irrespective of age, sex, or race/ethnicity. Although mortality rates increased by more for those without a BA, the ratio of mortality rates for those with and without a BA changed surprisingly little from 2019 to 2020. Among 60 groups (sex by race/ethnicity by age) that are available in the data, the ratio of mortality rates of those without a BA to those with a BA fell for more than half of the groups. Our results suggest that differences in the risk of infection were less important in structuring mortality by education than differences in the risk of death conditional on infection.
现在已经确定,2020年,不同种族和族裔群体的COVID-19死亡率和超额死亡率有所不同。在大流行期间,教育对死亡率的影响鲜为人知。我们比较了2020年和2019年在性别、年龄和种族/民族群体中按BA状态的死亡率。近年来,美国不同BA状态的死亡率差异越来越大,有充分的理由预计,在大流行期间,这一差距将进一步扩大。利用国家卫生统计中心的公开临时数据,我们发现,无论年龄、性别或种族/民族如何,有和没有文学学士学位的人,2020年的死亡率都比2019年有所上升。尽管没有文学学士学位的人的死亡率上升得更多,但从2019年到2020年,有和没有文学学士学位的人的死亡率比变化甚微。在数据中可获得的60个组别(按种族/族裔和年龄分列)中,一半以上的组别中没有学士学位者与有学士学位者的死亡率之比下降。我们的研究结果表明,感染风险的差异在教育死亡率结构中的重要性低于感染死亡风险的差异。
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引用次数: 5
Transações com Partes Relacionadas em empresas com estrutura piramidal: uma comparação dos fatores explicativos nas controladoras e coligadas 金字塔结构公司的关联方交易:母公司和关联方解释因素的比较
Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.17524/REPEC.V15I3.2900
Silvia Amelia Mendonça Flores, I. Sonza
Objetivo: Na ausencia de mecanismos para proteger acionistas minoritarios, controladores poderao exercer beneficios privados, utilizando mecanismos como as Transacoes com Partes Relacionadas (TPRs) ou desvios de direitos. O objetivo deste artigo e analisar os fatores explicativos das TPRs, em empresas controladoras/controladas e coligadas com estrutura piramidal no Brasil.Metodo: Os dados de TPRs foram obtidos por meio do Formulario de Referencia para 153 empresas no periodo de 2010 a 2017. Mediante a estimacao de regressoes quantilicas, buscou-se encontrar os fatores (presenca de estrutura piramidal, desempenho, valor da firma e governanca corporativa) que mais explicam essas transacoes, tanto entre controladoras/controladas quanto entre coligadas.Resultados: Para controladoras/controladas, os fatores explicativos das TPRs sao os desvios de direitos, alavancagem, presenca de acionistas estrangeiros e auditores independentes. Para coligadas, constataram- se efeitos da rentabilidade do ativo (ROA), tangibilidade e auditoria pelas Big Four.Contribuicoes: O estudo contribui ao demonstrar que ha um efeito da estrutura piramidal nas TPRs sem empresas controladoras/controladas e do desempenho nas coligadas, sendo que a governanca nao foi um moderador para mitigar conflitos de interesses. Portanto, abordaram-se tematicas pouco exploradas na literatura nacional e nos mercados emergentes, caracterizados por estruturas de propriedade concentradas, permitindo novos caminhos para as relacoes de agencia.Palavras-chave: Transacoes com partes relacionadas; Estrutura piramidal; Empresas controladoras/ controladas; Empresas coligadas.
目的:在缺乏保护小股东的机制的情况下,控股公司可以利用关联方交易(TPRs)或权利转移等机制来行使私人利润。本文的目的是分析在巴西金字塔结构的母公司/子公司和联营公司中TPRs的解释因素。方法:通过参考表格获得2010 - 2017年153家公司的TPRs数据。通过量化回归估计,我们试图找到最能解释这些交易的因素(存在金字塔结构、绩效、企业价值和公司治理),无论是在母公司/子公司之间还是在关联公司之间。结果:对于母公司/子公司,解释TPRs的因素是权利偏差、杠杆、外国股东和独立审计师的存在。对于附属公司,他们观察了资产盈利能力(ROA)、有形性和四大审计的影响。贡献:本研究有助于证明金字塔结构对没有母公司/子公司的TPRs和关联公司的绩效有影响,治理并不是缓解利益冲突的缓和因素。因此,在国家文献和新兴市场中很少探索的主题,其特点是集中的所有权结构,允许代理关系的新途径。关键词:关联方交易;金字塔结构;母公司/子公司;相关公司。
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引用次数: 0
Moderator Effect of Innovation on the Relationship between Internationalization and Performance in Brazilian and European Companies 创新对巴西和欧洲企业国际化与绩效关系的调节作用
Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.17524/REPEC.V15I3.2880
Antonio Rodrigues Albuquerque Filho, Editinete André da Rocha Garcia, A. Vasconcelos, A. Lima
Objective: To analyzes the moderating effect of innovation on the relationship between internationalization and financial performance. Method: The sample gathers 1,840 companies listed on Brasil, Bolsa, Balcao (B3) and NYSE Euronext  during the period of 2014-2018. Tests for difference of means were performed and linear regression models with panel data via systemic generalized moments method (GMM-Sys) were estimated. Results: Estimates indicate that the degree of internationalization alone does not assure high financial performance in Brazilian companies, while in European companies it influences return on assets (ROA) negatively. Moreover, in both contexts, the individual moderating effect of the two variables of innovation, exploration (R&D) and exploitation (Capex), could not be identified. However, a positive and significant effect of ambidextrous innovation activities in the relationship between internationalization and financial performance was verified. Evidence of the effect of internationalization on financial performance in both Brazilian and European companies is confirmed when enhanced by the simultaneous engagement of innovation activities. Contributions: This study contributes to a recent investigative line, which verifies the effect of intervening variables in the internationalization-performance relationship. It contributes to the analysis of this relationship in companies from emerging markets, a much and still needed research focus as a way of gaining a better understanding of business opportunities in adverse institutional conditions and how to seize them.
目的:分析创新对国际化与财务绩效关系的调节作用。方法:样本收集2014-2018年期间在巴西、Bolsa、Balcao (B3)和纽约泛欧交易所上市的1840家公司。进行均值差检验,并通过系统广义矩法(GMM-Sys)估计面板数据的线性回归模型。结果:估计表明,国际化程度本身并不能保证巴西公司的高财务绩效,而在欧洲公司,国际化程度对资产回报率(ROA)产生负面影响。此外,在这两种情况下,创新两个变量——探索(R&D)和开发(Capex)的个体调节作用都无法确定。然而,在国际化与财务绩效的关系中,双灵巧创新活动的正向显著效应得到了验证。国际化对巴西和欧洲公司财务绩效影响的证据在同时参与创新活动时得到证实。贡献:本研究为最近的一条调查线做出贡献,该研究验证了干预变量在国际化-绩效关系中的作用。它有助于分析新兴市场公司的这种关系,这是一个非常重要且仍然需要的研究重点,可以更好地理解不利制度条件下的商业机会,以及如何抓住它们。
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引用次数: 1
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Research Papers in Economics
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