Pub Date : 2021-09-30DOI: 10.17185/DUEPUBLICO/74847
Cristina Borra, Libertad González, David Patiño
We study the effects of maternal age on infant health. Age at birth has been increasing for the past several decades in many countries, and correlations show that health at birth is worse for children born to older mothers. In order to identify causal effects, we exploit school entry cutoffs and the empirical finding that women who are older for their cohort in school tend to give birth later. In Spain, children born in December start school a year earlier than those born the following January, despite being essentially the same age. We show that as a result, January‐born women finish school later and are (several months) older when they marry and when they have their first child. We find no effect on educational attainment. We then compare the health at birth of the children of women born in January versus the previous December, using administrative, population‐level data, and following a regression discontinuity design. We find small and insignificant effects on average weight at birth, but the children of January‐born mothers are more likely to have very low birthweight. We interpret our results as suggestive of a causal effect of maternal age on infant health, concentrated in the left tail of the birthweight distribution, with older mothers more likely to give birth to (very) premature babies.
{"title":"Maternal Age and Infant Health","authors":"Cristina Borra, Libertad González, David Patiño","doi":"10.17185/DUEPUBLICO/74847","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17185/DUEPUBLICO/74847","url":null,"abstract":"We study the effects of maternal age on infant health. Age at birth has been increasing for the past several decades in many countries, and correlations show that health at birth is worse for children born to older mothers. In order to identify causal effects, we exploit school entry cutoffs and the empirical finding that women who are older for their cohort in school tend to give birth later. In Spain, children born in December start school a year earlier than those born the following January, despite being essentially the same age. We show that as a result, January‐born women finish school later and are (several months) older when they marry and when they have their first child. We find no effect on educational attainment. We then compare the health at birth of the children of women born in January versus the previous December, using administrative, population‐level data, and following a regression discontinuity design. We find small and insignificant effects on average weight at birth, but the children of January‐born mothers are more likely to have very low birthweight. We interpret our results as suggestive of a causal effect of maternal age on infant health, concentrated in the left tail of the birthweight distribution, with older mothers more likely to give birth to (very) premature babies.","PeriodicalId":422295,"journal":{"name":"Research Papers in Economics","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123806913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The UK left the European single market in energy on 31 December 2020, having been a leading light in its promotion. It entered into a new energy relationship with the EU-27 as outlined in the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on 1 January 2021. This paper discusses what has happened to the UK energy sector since the Brexit referendum of June 2016. Since our previous paper on this topic in 2017, there has been a significant clarification in the impact of Brexit on the energy sector in the UK. We outline what the TCA says about energy. We then discuss the current and potential future effects of Brexit on the UK electricity and gas systems in turn. We observe that the likely economic welfare impacts on electricity are larger than the impacts on gas, but the overall microeconomic impact appears likely to be modest (but negative). We offer a number of concluding observations.
{"title":"The further economic consequences of Brexit: energy","authors":"M. Pollitt","doi":"10.17863/CAM.76213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.76213","url":null,"abstract":"The UK left the European single market in energy on 31 December 2020, having been a leading light in its promotion. It entered into a new energy relationship with the EU-27 as outlined in the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) on 1 January 2021. This paper discusses what has happened to the UK energy sector since the Brexit referendum of June 2016. Since our previous paper on this topic in 2017, there has been a significant clarification in the impact of Brexit on the energy sector in the UK. We outline what the TCA says about energy. We then discuss the current and potential future effects of Brexit on the UK electricity and gas systems in turn. We observe that the likely economic welfare impacts on electricity are larger than the impacts on gas, but the overall microeconomic impact appears likely to be modest (but negative). We offer a number of concluding observations.","PeriodicalId":422295,"journal":{"name":"Research Papers in Economics","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122830760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Erika Deserranno, Philipp Kastrau, Gianmarco León-Ciliotta
Author(s): Deserranno, Erika; Kastrau, Philipp; Leon-Ciliotta, Gianmarco | Abstract: We study promotion incentives in the public sector by means of a field experiment with the Ministry of Health in Sierra Leone. The experiment creates exogenous variation in meritocracy by linking promotions to performance for the lowest tier of health workers and in perceived pay progression by revealing to them the salary of higher-tier workers. We find that meritocratic promotions lead to higher productivity for workers who expect a steep pay increase and those who are highly ranked in terms of performance. When promotions are not meritocratic, increasing the pay gradient instead reduces worker productivity through negative morale effects. The findings highlight the importance of taking into account the interactions between different tools of personnel policy.n
{"title":"Promotions and Productivity: The Role of Meritocracy and Pay Progression in the Public Sector","authors":"Erika Deserranno, Philipp Kastrau, Gianmarco León-Ciliotta","doi":"10.26085/C3B01R","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26085/C3B01R","url":null,"abstract":"Author(s): Deserranno, Erika; Kastrau, Philipp; Leon-Ciliotta, Gianmarco | Abstract: We study promotion incentives in the public sector by means of a field experiment with the Ministry of Health in Sierra Leone. The experiment creates exogenous variation in meritocracy by linking promotions to performance for the lowest tier of health workers and in perceived pay progression by revealing to them the salary of higher-tier workers. We find that meritocratic promotions lead to higher productivity for workers who expect a steep pay increase and those who are highly ranked in terms of performance. When promotions are not meritocratic, increasing the pay gradient instead reduces worker productivity through negative morale effects. The findings highlight the importance of taking into account the interactions between different tools of personnel policy.n","PeriodicalId":422295,"journal":{"name":"Research Papers in Economics","volume":"1987 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130711829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ilya Kashnitsky, Alexei Raksha, J. Aburto, Jonas Schöley, J. Vaupel
NOTE: this is an early registration of the research idea and findings in form of slides for a talk presented at EAPS Mort workshop on 2021-09-22 (video: https://youtu.be/rOndHnuajH4?t=2370)Period Life Expectancy is the key summary measure of current mortality. Elimination of the direct influence of population age structure allows to meaningfully compare mortality levels and changes across the populations and over time. Calculation of life expectancy demands high quality detailed data on death and population counts disaggregated by sex and age. Such data is only available for the more developed countries. Moreover, even in the most developed countries, it becomes available with a considerable time lag. And for the majority of countries across the world timely and high quality deaths statistics is not available. In situations of mortality shocks such as the COVID–19 pandemic near real time mortality level comparisons are crucial.Building on the studied regularities of human mortality, we offer a method of reliable life expectancy short-casting based only on the time series of its previous values and the time series of total deaths counts observed in the population, not disaggregated by sex and age. The radical simplicity of the method allows to monitor changes in life expectancy in near real time, if time disaggregated (daily, weekly, or monthly) total death counts are available.
{"title":"A radically simple way to monitor life expectancy","authors":"Ilya Kashnitsky, Alexei Raksha, J. Aburto, Jonas Schöley, J. Vaupel","doi":"10.31219/osf.io/g9mxt","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/g9mxt","url":null,"abstract":"NOTE: this is an early registration of the research idea and findings in form of slides for a talk presented at EAPS Mort workshop on 2021-09-22 (video: https://youtu.be/rOndHnuajH4?t=2370)Period Life Expectancy is the key summary measure of current mortality. Elimination of the direct influence of population age structure allows to meaningfully compare mortality levels and changes across the populations and over time. Calculation of life expectancy demands high quality detailed data on death and population counts disaggregated by sex and age. Such data is only available for the more developed countries. Moreover, even in the most developed countries, it becomes available with a considerable time lag. And for the majority of countries across the world timely and high quality deaths statistics is not available. In situations of mortality shocks such as the COVID–19 pandemic near real time mortality level comparisons are crucial.Building on the studied regularities of human mortality, we offer a method of reliable life expectancy short-casting based only on the time series of its previous values and the time series of total deaths counts observed in the population, not disaggregated by sex and age. The radical simplicity of the method allows to monitor changes in life expectancy in near real time, if time disaggregated (daily, weekly, or monthly) total death counts are available.","PeriodicalId":422295,"journal":{"name":"Research Papers in Economics","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129719340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The COVID-19 epidemic has caused the closure of French higher education institutions leading to a series of lockdowns that have affected the mental health of students. We use the POMS (Profile of Mood States) questionnaire developed by McNair et al. (1971) to identify the state of the mental health of students in a French Management School (post-high school level, aged 18+). Our results show that a significant proportion of students show altered mental states and generalized fatigue. 41% of the 1,123 respondents had a worrying mental health condition. We highlight the impact of the absence of social ties and of physical and sports activities. Finally, we suggest that techniques to reduce states such as stress and anxiety be introduced into the curriculum.
{"title":"Locked down. A study of the mental health of French Management School students during the COVID-19 health crisis using the POMS questionnaire","authors":"S. Justeau, A. Musson, D. Rousselière","doi":"10.22004/AG.ECON.313664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22004/AG.ECON.313664","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 epidemic has caused the closure of French higher education institutions leading to a series of lockdowns that have affected the mental health of students. We use the POMS (Profile of Mood States) questionnaire developed by McNair et al. (1971) to identify the state of the mental health of students in a French Management School (post-high school level, aged 18+). Our results show that a significant proportion of students show altered mental states and generalized fatigue. 41% of the 1,123 respondents had a worrying mental health condition. We highlight the impact of the absence of social ties and of physical and sports activities. Finally, we suggest that techniques to reduce states such as stress and anxiety be introduced into the curriculum.","PeriodicalId":422295,"journal":{"name":"Research Papers in Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122682158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With Covid, high-school students are having difficulty staying in school. We present a dynamic model of the effects of increased drop-out rates. The model accounts for labor productivity, crime costs and high-school savings. We simulate a 25 per cent increase in drop-out rates occurring in the two years starting September 2019, with a gradual return to pre-Covid rates in 2025. Our results show a loss of 597,000 high-school graduations from cohorts entering high-school in 2016-2024. The present-value cost is between $42 and $137 billion, depending on discount rates. These results support investment in high-school retention policies through the Covid crisis.
{"title":"Modeling the Economic Effects of Increased Drop-out Rates from High School","authors":"P. Dixon, Maureen T. Rimmer, S. Farrow","doi":"10.13016/M25JB6-LKFC","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13016/M25JB6-LKFC","url":null,"abstract":"With Covid, high-school students are having difficulty staying in school. We present a dynamic model of the effects of increased drop-out rates. The model accounts for labor productivity, crime costs and high-school savings. We simulate a 25 per cent increase in drop-out rates occurring in the two years starting September 2019, with a gradual return to pre-Covid rates in 2025. Our results show a loss of 597,000 high-school graduations from cohorts entering high-school in 2016-2024. The present-value cost is between $42 and $137 billion, depending on discount rates. These results support investment in high-school retention policies through the Covid crisis.","PeriodicalId":422295,"journal":{"name":"Research Papers in Economics","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133156546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study quantifies the impact of process and product innovation on employment growth in Bolivia by using microdata from a survey on innovation conducted in Bolivia in 2016. Following the model of Harrison, Jaumandreu, Mairesse, and Peters (2008) and the adaptations for Latin America of Crespi and Tacsir (2013) and Elejalde, Giuliodori, and Stucchi (2015), we demonstrate that employment growth is explained by product innovation. On the other hand, we find no evidence of a displacement effect due to process innovation. With respect to innovation and work composition, we observe that the reation of qualified employment is slightly favored over that of unqualified employment.
{"title":"Effects of Innovation on Employment: An Analysis at the Firm Level in Bolivia","authors":"C. Foronda, Javier H Beverinotti","doi":"10.18235/0003640","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18235/0003640","url":null,"abstract":"This study quantifies the impact of process and product innovation on employment growth in Bolivia by using microdata from a survey on innovation conducted in Bolivia in 2016. Following the model of Harrison, Jaumandreu, Mairesse, and Peters (2008) and the adaptations for Latin America of Crespi and Tacsir (2013) and Elejalde, Giuliodori, and Stucchi (2015), we demonstrate that employment growth is explained by product innovation. On the other hand, we find no evidence of a displacement effect due to process innovation. With respect to innovation and work composition, we observe that the reation of qualified employment is slightly favored over that of unqualified employment.","PeriodicalId":422295,"journal":{"name":"Research Papers in Economics","volume":"101 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124765996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-01DOI: 10.36095/banxico/di.2021.15
Gustavo Leyva, Israel Mora
We estimate that about 10.6 percent of jobs could be done from home in Mexico, using 468 4-digit SINCO occupations and employment data in 2019. This is roughly half the estimate reported by Dingel and Neiman (2020) using teleworking criteria devised for the U.S. labor market. Owing to the peculiarities of the Mexican labor market, we report results by type of contract (formal and informal), geographical area, and gender. We validate our teleworking measure by exploiting the cross-state variation of real GDP per worker, the share of services in employment, and internet and computer access within the household. We find that the gap in teleworking possibilities favorable to females has its root in the disparate occupation structures across gender. During the pandemic, the decline in the share of non-telework jobs in females has been thrice as much as that in males
{"title":"How High (Low) are the Possibilities of Teleworking in Mexico?","authors":"Gustavo Leyva, Israel Mora","doi":"10.36095/banxico/di.2021.15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.36095/banxico/di.2021.15","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate that about 10.6 percent of jobs could be done from home in Mexico, using 468 4-digit SINCO occupations and employment data in 2019. This is roughly half the estimate reported by Dingel and Neiman (2020) using teleworking criteria devised for the U.S. labor market. Owing to the peculiarities of the Mexican labor market, we report results by type of contract (formal and informal), geographical area, and gender. We validate our teleworking measure by exploiting the cross-state variation of real GDP per worker, the share of services in employment, and internet and computer access within the household. We find that the gap in teleworking possibilities favorable to females has its root in the disparate occupation structures across gender. During the pandemic, the decline in the share of non-telework jobs in females has been thrice as much as that in males","PeriodicalId":422295,"journal":{"name":"Research Papers in Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129266166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-01DOI: 10.3929/ETHZ-B-000505345
J. Bingler, C. Senni, P. Monnin
Climate risks are now fully recognized as financial risks by asset managers, investors, central banks, and financial supervisors. Against this background, a rapidly growing number of market participants and financial authorities are exploring which metrics to use to capture climate risks, as well as to what extent the use of different metrics delivers heterogeneous results. To shed a light on these questions, we analyse a sample of 69 transition risk metrics delivered by 9 different climate transition risk providers and covering the 1,500 firms of the MSCI World index. Our findings show that convergence between metrics is significantly higher for the firms most exposed to transition risk. We also show that metrics with similar scenarios (i.e. horizon, temperature target and transition paths) tend to deliver more coherent risk assessments. Turning to the variables that might drive the outcome of the risk assessment, we find evidence that variables on metric's assumptions and scenario's characteristics are associated with changes in the estimated firms' transition risk. Our findings bear important implications for policy making and research. First, climate transition risk metrics, if applied by the majority of financial market participants in their risk assessment, might translate into relatively coherent market pricing signals for least and most exposed firms. Second, it would help the correct interpretation of metrics in financial markets if supervisory authorities defined a joint baseline approach to ensure basic comparability of disclosed metrics, and asked for detailed assumption documentations alongside the metrics. Third, researchers should start to justify the use of the specific climate risk metrics and interpret their findings in the light of the metric assumptions.
{"title":"Climate Transition Risk Metrics: Understanding Convergence and Divergence across Firms and Providers","authors":"J. Bingler, C. Senni, P. Monnin","doi":"10.3929/ETHZ-B-000505345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3929/ETHZ-B-000505345","url":null,"abstract":"Climate risks are now fully recognized as financial risks by asset managers, investors, central banks, and financial supervisors. Against this background, a rapidly growing number of market participants and financial authorities are exploring which metrics to use to capture climate risks, as well as to what extent the use of different metrics delivers heterogeneous results. To shed a light on these questions, we analyse a sample of 69 transition risk metrics delivered by 9 different climate transition risk providers and covering the 1,500 firms of the MSCI World index. Our findings show that convergence between metrics is significantly higher for the firms most exposed to transition risk. We also show that metrics with similar scenarios (i.e. horizon, temperature target and transition paths) tend to deliver more coherent risk assessments. Turning to the variables that might drive the outcome of the risk assessment, we find evidence that variables on metric's assumptions and scenario's characteristics are associated with changes in the estimated firms' transition risk. Our findings bear important implications for policy making and research. First, climate transition risk metrics, if applied by the majority of financial market participants in their risk assessment, might translate into relatively coherent market pricing signals for least and most exposed firms. Second, it would help the correct interpretation of metrics in financial markets if supervisory authorities defined a joint baseline approach to ensure basic comparability of disclosed metrics, and asked for detailed assumption documentations alongside the metrics. Third, researchers should start to justify the use of the specific climate risk metrics and interpret their findings in the light of the metric assumptions.","PeriodicalId":422295,"journal":{"name":"Research Papers in Economics","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126394175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimal Capital Income Taxes in the Infinite Horizon Model with Progressive Income Taxes","authors":"Been-Lon Chen, Chihkuan Lai","doi":"10.6277/TER.202109_49(3).0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6277/TER.202109_49(3).0004","url":null,"abstract":"在線性所得稅制的無窮生命代表性個人模型，Chamley（1986）和Judd（1985）已經證明長期的最適資本稅為零。本篇研究一個除了累進稅制外其餘設定都相同的模型，結果如下。首先，累進稅制下的長期最適資本所得稅為正。其次，累進稅制下由當前稅率改制為正最適所得稅率的福利利得大於線性稅制下改制為零資本所得稅率的福利利得。我們的發現支持自19世紀後期之後，採行累進稅制的先進國家課徵資本稅。","PeriodicalId":422295,"journal":{"name":"Research Papers in Economics","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114079054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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