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Optimal allocation of bank resources and risk reduction through portfolio decentralization 通过投资组合分散优化银行资源配置和降低风险
IF 2.4 Pub Date : 2022-11-24 DOI: 10.52950/es.2022.11.2.007
A. Mohammadi, Mehrzad Minnoei, Zadollah Fathi, Mohamamd Ali Keramati, Hossein Baktiari
The main concern of all economic companies is the resources equipping and allocating them in different economic sectors with the aim of maximizing profit and minimizing risk. Decentralization is one of the important factors that reduce investment risk. The investors plan to create investment by carefully planning and collecting sufficient information on the economic situation and analyzing the situation of various industries. As an economic enterprise, banks are looking for short- and long-term investments in a types of loans ,such as bailment of a capital , civil participation, reward, etc, which guarantees the return of their capital. In this paper, considering the condition of a bank as an economic enterprise, a model is presented which not only increases profit but also reduces risk. Two objective functions have been defined that the first objective is to minimize the risk and the second objective function is to maximize the of the bank profit, which is used by robust programming and Malvi Sim model. In this paper, we have investigated the Risky and non-Risky Partfolio and the optimal portfolio of bank assets from scenario based solution of the model and by using PSO and Genetic Optimization Algorithm. At all levels of confidence and optimal values of risk based on the estimation of SPP-CVAR method by Particle Swarm Algorithm (PSA) is less than genetic algorithm, which indicates better performance of Particle Swarm Algorithm (PSA) than Genetic Algorithm (GA). Also, the optimum wealth obtained from PSA solution is higher at all levels of confidence than the corresponding value of Genetic Algorithm (GA), and this is another reason to confirm the performance of PSO algorithm compared to the Genetic Algorithm (GA). The values of the first goal function, obtained from the PSO algorithm, for all confidence levels are lower than those of the genetic algorithm. The optimum wealth obtained from PSA is higher than genetic algorithm. At 0.9 level, the value of LR of kupiec statistics for the SPP-CVAR method was less than the Chi-square statistics (Critical value) which was assumed to be acceptable.
所有经济公司最关心的是如何在不同的经济部门中配置和配置资源,以实现利润最大化和风险最小化。分权是降低投资风险的重要因素之一。投资者通过仔细规划和收集充分的经济形势信息,分析各行业的形势,计划进行投资。作为一个经济企业,银行寻求短期和长期投资的贷款类型,如保证金、公民参与、奖励等,以保证其资本的回报。本文考虑银行作为经济企业的情况,提出了一种既能增加利润又能降低风险的模型。定义了两个目标函数,第一个目标是风险最小化,第二个目标函数是银行利润最大化,并采用鲁棒规划和Malvi Sim模型。本文从基于场景的模型求解出发,利用粒子群算法和遗传优化算法,研究了银行资产的风险组合和非风险组合以及最优组合。粒子群算法(PSA)基于SPP-CVAR方法估计的各级置信度和最优风险值均小于遗传算法,表明粒子群算法(PSA)的性能优于遗传算法(GA)。同时,从PSA解中得到的最优财富在各级置信度上都高于遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm, GA)的对应值,这也是证实PSO算法相对于遗传算法(Genetic Algorithm, GA)性能的另一个原因。PSO算法得到的第一个目标函数在所有置信水平下的值都低于遗传算法。该算法获得的最优财富高于遗传算法。在0.9水平下,SPP-CVAR方法的kupiec统计量的LR值小于卡方统计量(临界值),假设可以接受。
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引用次数: 1
Health expenditure, life expectancy, fertility rate, CO2 emissions and economic growth Do public, private and external health expenditure matter 保健支出、预期寿命、生育率、二氧化碳排放和经济增长对公共、私人和外部保健支出都很重要
IF 2.4 Pub Date : 2022-11-24 DOI: 10.52950/es.2022.11.2.010
M. Sabra
This article aims to detect empirically, the nexus dynamic interrelationships between health expenditure, totally and disaggregated, economic growth, fertility rate, life expectancy and CO2 emissions in six middle-income MENA countries, namely, (Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia), during 2000 to 2019. We employ an advanced econometric technique, Dynamic Panel Data system analysis, which allows estimating time rarely variant variables. Article results show a significant and robust positive association between health expenditure and economic growth, in one hand, and negative associations between economic growth and all which of, fertility rate, life expectancy and CO2 emissions, on the other hand. Moreover, a negative nexus between fertility rate and life expectancy has been detected. Public, private and external health expenditure affect economic growth positively and significantly, meanwhile affect fertility rate negatively, except health public expenditure, which seems to encourage fertility rate. This indicates that disaggregated health expenditure matters for examination. Furthermore, negative impact of CO2 emissions on growth and life expectancy can crowd out health expenditure positive impacts on both growth and life expectancy. A series of recommendations have been introduced such as increasing health share in public spending, and for more effective government health expenditure and control pollution and CO2 emissions. Furthermore, health spending, policies and system has to function as well to mitigate impacts of high fertility, in marginalized, rural and fungible population and areas. This article shines a light on the notable issues in the area, whereas high fertility rate, limited government health expenditure, high employment and low awareness for pollution and environment degradation.
本文旨在实证研究2000年至2019年期间,中东和北非6个中等收入国家(阿尔及利亚、埃及、约旦、黎巴嫩、摩洛哥和突尼斯)的总体和分类卫生支出与经济增长、生育率、预期寿命和二氧化碳排放之间的联系动态相互关系。我们采用了一种先进的计量经济学技术,动态面板数据系统分析,它允许估计时间很少变变量。研究结果表明,卫生支出与经济增长之间存在显著的正相关关系,而经济增长与生育率、预期寿命和二氧化碳排放之间存在负相关关系。此外,还发现生育率与预期寿命之间存在负相关关系。公共、私人和外部卫生支出对经济增长产生积极而显著的影响,同时对生育率产生消极影响,但卫生公共支出似乎鼓励生育率。这表明分类保健支出值得审查。此外,二氧化碳排放对增长和预期寿命的负面影响可能会挤掉卫生支出对增长和预期寿命的积极影响。已经提出了一系列建议,例如增加公共支出中卫生方面的份额,以及提高政府卫生支出的效率和控制污染和二氧化碳排放。此外,卫生支出、政策和制度也必须发挥作用,减轻高生育率对边缘化、农村和可替代人口和地区的影响。这篇文章揭示了该地区值得注意的问题,即高生育率、有限的政府卫生支出、高就业率和对污染和环境退化的认识不足。
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引用次数: 0
Socio-Economic Factors of Differences in Public Health-Related Variables among Women: A Cross-Sectional Study 妇女公共卫生变量差异的社会经济因素:一项横断面研究
IF 2.4 Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.55603/jes.v1i1.a1
Dr Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh, Hadees Akhtar, I. Hussain
This study examines the association of living areas (slum and non-slum) with the selected public health-related variables in the presence of socioeconomic variables among married women and also having a child. A total of 150 women aged 18 to 49 are selected of which 50 women from slums and 100 women are from non-slum areas of Multan by applying the cluster and random sampling techniques. The cross-tabulation method is used to find the results. The dependent variable is Body Mass Index (BMI) and it is analyzed with the socio-economic variables such as mass media index, household characteristics and education. The findings exhibit that the BMI of the women living in the slum areas is low due to a low level of education, lack of mass media access, bad household structures, and poor or ignorant area. The women of the slum area have fewer mass media access, poor status of household characteristics and less education as compared to the women living in the non-slum areas. BMI is significantly affected by area, women's education and household characteristics except for physical work, job status, mass media access and husband education. The findings of this study suggest that to provide health facilities or to reduce the gap in public health, education, mass media access and households characteristics might be considered while making any decision related to the slum and non-slum areas.
本研究考察了生活区域(贫民窟和非贫民窟)与选定的公共健康相关变量在已婚妇女和有孩子的社会经济变量存在下的关系。采用整群抽样和随机抽样技术,共选取了150名年龄在18至49岁之间的妇女,其中50名妇女来自木尔坦的贫民窟,100名妇女来自非贫民窟地区。采用交叉表法查找结果。因变量为身体质量指数(BMI),并与大众媒介指数、家庭特征和受教育程度等社会经济变量进行分析。研究结果表明,生活在贫民窟地区的女性的BMI较低,原因是受教育程度低、缺乏大众媒体、家庭结构不佳以及贫困或无知的地区。与生活在非贫民窟地区的妇女相比,贫民窟地区的妇女接触大众传媒的机会较少,家庭特征状况较差,受教育程度较低。除体力劳动、工作状态、大众传媒接触和丈夫教育程度外,地区、女性受教育程度和家庭特征对BMI有显著影响。这项研究的结果表明,在作出与贫民窟和非贫民窟地区有关的任何决定时,可以考虑提供卫生设施或缩小公共卫生、教育、大众媒体获取和家庭特征方面的差距。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic Instability and Terrorism Nexus; Empirical Evidence in Case of Pakistan 宏观经济不稳定与恐怖主义关系;巴基斯坦案例中的经验证据
IF 2.4 Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.55603/jes.v1i1.a6
Hafsa Jabeen, Ayesha Naz
The current study is an attempt to analyze the association between macroeconomic instability and terrorism in Pakistan over the period of 1970 to 2020. Six important variables are taken as a proxy to measure macroeconomic instability which includes external debt, budget deficit, trade deficit, real effective exchange rate (REER), inflation and unemployment. Results indicate that there exists a long run cointegration relationship between the indictors of macroeconomic instability and terrorism. FMOLS is employed to obtain the estimates and it reveals that budget deficit and external debt is negatively associated with terrorism. It indicates that government expenditures on different project such as infrastructure create economic opportunities, therefore, reduces terrorism. Furthermore, welfare programmes also improve the performance of socioeconomic variables that translates into harmonized environment which lessens violence. The variable of trade deficit, inflation and unemployment has positive impact on terrorism while REER is insignificant. In context of trade deficit, higher imports results in job loss of domestic industries, hence, it hits the vulnerable groups. Therefore, the opportunity cost of life of these groups reduces and it increases the probability to become a part of terrorist activities. Inflation also pushes the vulnerable groups in poverty by reduces the purchasing power and unemployed individuals are also easy target to get involve themselves in acts of aggression. This study also constructs the macroeconomic instability index including the six variables through principal component analysis (PCA). Results of this model show that macroeconomic instability index and GDP has positive effect on terrorism. In case of GDP, the plausible reason could be uneven income distribution that increases terrorist activities. For the policy implications, government need to divert the resources from non-productive to productive uses through the investment in such projects which has direct and indirect impact on the welfare. In this way deprived group will enjoy economic perks and engage themselves in productive activities rather than becoming a helping hand in terrorism.
当前的研究试图分析1970年至2020年期间巴基斯坦宏观经济不稳定与恐怖主义之间的关系。六个重要变量作为衡量宏观经济不稳定性的代理,包括外债、预算赤字、贸易赤字、实际有效汇率(REER)、通货膨胀和失业。结果表明,宏观经济不稳定性指标与恐怖主义之间存在长期协整关系。使用FMOLS来获得估计数,它显示预算赤字和外债与恐怖主义负相关。这表明政府在基础设施等不同项目上的支出创造了经济机会,因此减少了恐怖主义。此外,福利方案还能改善社会经济变量的表现,从而转化为减少暴力的和谐环境。贸易逆差、通货膨胀和失业变量对恐怖主义有正向影响,而REER不显著。在贸易逆差的背景下,进口增加会导致国内产业的就业岗位减少,从而打击弱势群体。因此,这些群体的生命机会成本降低,成为恐怖活动一部分的可能性增加。通货膨胀也通过降低购买力而使弱势群体陷入贫困,失业的个人也容易成为参与侵略行为的目标。本文还通过主成分分析(PCA)构建了包含6个变量的宏观经济不稳定性指标。模型结果表明,宏观经济不稳定指数和GDP对恐怖主义有正向影响。就GDP而言,合理的理由可能是收入分配不均导致恐怖活动增加。就政策影响而言,政府需要通过投资这些对福利有直接和间接影响的项目,将资源从非生产性用途转移到生产性用途。通过这种方式,贫困群体将享受经济福利,并参与生产活动,而不是成为恐怖主义的帮凶。
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引用次数: 0
An Analysis of Global Integration and Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Pakistan 全球一体化与经济增长关系分析:来自巴基斯坦的证据
IF 2.4 Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.55603/jes.v1i1.a4
A. Abbasi, Zubia Hussain, Muhammad Tariq Majeed
The following research examines economic growth potential from the perspective of globalization for Pakistan. The empirical results are estimated using the ARDL model over the period 1970 to 2018. The study reports the time before and after the openness to the world. The country opened up its borders quite late in the 80s. The results demonstrate that, in the short term, globalization negatively affects economic growth, but that, in the long run, it boosts economic growth. Globalization has assisted Pakistan's economic progress since the country opened its borders and economy to the rest of the world, but not to too much extent, what it could. Furthermore, research findings demonstrate that government spending and physical capital improve economic growth, however, inflation has a detrimental impact on Pakistan's economic growth.
以下研究从全球化的角度考察巴基斯坦的经济增长潜力。使用ARDL模型对1970年至2018年期间的实证结果进行了估计。该研究报告了对世界开放前后的时间。这个国家在80年代后期开放了边境。结果表明,在短期内,全球化对经济增长产生负面影响,但从长期来看,它促进了经济增长。自从巴基斯坦向世界其他国家开放边境和经济以来,全球化帮助了巴基斯坦的经济发展,但程度并不太大。此外,研究结果表明,政府支出和实物资本促进经济增长,但通货膨胀对巴基斯坦的经济增长有不利影响。
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引用次数: 0
Pandemic Impact on the Travels and Tourism Sector of Nepal 流行病对尼泊尔旅行和旅游业的影响
IF 2.4 Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.55603/jes.v1i1.a5
Chongbang Nirmal
The travel and tours enterprise were badly affected due to pandemics. In the aftermath of high restrictions on human movement, travel-based entrepreneurs were highly impacted due to lockdown. Due to pandemic, highly impacted into earning-saving, lack of supportive working conditions, lower self-capacity, and lack of recovery budget and policies, the travel and tours-based entrepreneurs were highly impacted. The study reflected the impact of pandemics on travel and tours, major constraints, and a possible way forward to sustaining. The research explores what are the major existing practices of sustaining travel and tours entrepreneurs during pandemics, what factors can contribute to building bounce-back capacities of travel and tours entrepreneurs’ sustainability. Above forty-four, snowball-based sampling was done from major travel and tours entrepreneurs, Pokhara-Nepal. A structure-based open-ended questionnaire, key informant interviews, and in-person-based discussion were applied in the method of study. Used the content analysis along with a recap of the research question, undertake bracketing to identify biases, operationalize variables with develop a coding, and code the data with undertaking analysis while qualitative analysis, and multiple regression facilitated on quantitative analysis to finalize the discussion. The study reflects that self-saving, social support, state and financial institutions recovery support, social behavior and change communication, full vaccination practices, and self-accountable tourist behavior are highly expectable conditions to the sustainability of travel and torus entrepreneurship in the learning area. The study concludes that self-saving capacity can contribute to bounce-back capacity for every entrepreneur. Social support and socioeconomic recovery packages were also contributing to sustaining travel and tours in the study area. Self-saving condition and capacity is higher bounce back capacity compared to non-saved entrepreneurs in the study area. Social support, socioeconomic recovery practices, and recovery packages from state and financial institutions were not at the higher level as expected.
由于大流行,旅游业受到严重影响。在严格限制人员流动之后,由于封锁,以旅行为基础的企业家受到了很大的影响。由于疫情大流行,节余受到严重影响,缺乏支持性工作条件,自我能力较低,缺乏恢复预算和政策,旅游业和旅游业企业家受到严重影响。该研究反映了大流行病对旅行和旅游的影响、主要制约因素以及可能的维持方式。该研究探讨了在大流行病期间维持旅游企业家的主要现有做法是什么,哪些因素有助于建立旅游企业家的可持续性反弹能力。在44个以上的案例中,以滚雪球为基础的抽样是在Pokhara-Nepal的主要旅游和旅游企业家中进行的。研究方法采用基于结构的开放式问卷、关键信息提供者访谈和面对面的讨论。使用内容分析和研究问题的概述,采用括号法识别偏差,通过开发编码对变量进行操作,并在定性分析时使用承接分析对数据进行编码,并在定量分析时使用多元回归来完成讨论。研究表明,自我储蓄、社会支持、国家和金融机构的恢复支持、社会行为和变革沟通、全面疫苗接种实践和自我负责的游客行为是学习区旅游和环面创业可持续性的高度可预期条件。研究得出结论,自我拯救能力有助于每位企业家的反弹能力。社会支持和社会经济恢复一揽子计划也有助于维持研究地区的旅行和旅游。研究区企业家的自救条件和自救能力均高于非自救企业家的自救能力。来自国家和金融机构的社会支持、社会经济恢复实践和恢复一揽子计划没有达到预期的较高水平。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Institutional Quality on Trade Performance of Small and Medium Enterprises in Pakistan 制度质量对巴基斯坦中小企业贸易绩效的影响
IF 2.4 Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.55603/jes.v1i1.a3
Muhammad Fahad Khan, Muhammad Imran Khan, Kamran Abbas Naqvi
The trade economy is dependent upon the institutional quality of the country. It affects the ease of doing business in the economy. It is plausible to think that, how institutional quality can affect the trading performance of Pakistan. Small & medium enterprises (SMEs) are playing the role of the backbone of the trade sector in Pakistan. Contribution SMEs can be significantly improved, by improving the supporting macroeconomic indicators. This paper studies the short-run and the long-run association between SME trade growth and cost of production, relative prices, and Institutional quality in Pakistan. It also examines the Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, between SME trade growth and institutional quality in Pakistan. This study utilizes secondary data, which is taken from multiple secondary sources, including the SMEDA, Pakistan Economic Survey, and world development indicators. The biannual data is assembled up for 38 observations from (2000 to 2019). This study uses Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bound testing method to examine the short run and long run connections between SMEs’ trade growth and macro-economic variables, like; relative prices, Cost of production. Gross Domestic Product, exchange rate, and institutional quality. These variables are selected from the available literature. The study finds that the short-run response of SMEs trade is not significant, but it significantly responds to macro-economic indicators in long run. The institutional quality has a non-linear relationship with SMEs trade growth. This indicates that the pollution heaven hypothesis holds valid even for the case of institutional quality and SMEs trading performance. The study focuses on the optimality of institutional quality for the optimal performance level of SMEs in Pakistan.
贸易经济依赖于国家的制度质量。它会影响经济中做生意的便利性。我们有理由认为,制度质量如何影响巴基斯坦的贸易表现。中小企业(SMEs)在巴基斯坦的贸易部门中扮演着中坚力量的角色。通过改善配套宏观经济指标,可以显著提高中小企业的贡献。本文研究了巴基斯坦中小企业贸易增长与生产成本、相对价格和制度质量之间的短期和长期关系。本文还考察了巴基斯坦中小企业贸易增长与制度质量之间的环境库兹涅茨曲线假设。本研究使用的二手数据来自多个二手来源,包括SMEDA、巴基斯坦经济调查和世界发展指标。一年两次的数据是由2000年至2019年的38次观测收集的。本文采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)约束检验方法,考察了中小企业贸易增长与宏观经济变量之间的短期和长期关系。相对价格,生产成本。国内生产总值、汇率和制度质量。这些变量是从现有文献中选择的。研究发现,中小企业贸易的短期响应不显著,但长期对宏观经济指标的响应显著。制度质量与中小企业贸易增长呈非线性关系。这表明污染天堂假说即使在制度质量和中小企业交易绩效的情况下也成立。研究的重点是巴基斯坦中小企业最优绩效水平的制度质量的最优性。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Women Empowerment on Fertility Preferences in Pakistan 巴基斯坦妇女赋权对生育偏好的影响
IF 2.4 Pub Date : 2022-06-11 DOI: 10.55603/jes.v1i1.a2
Naeem Akram
Reproduction is an important aspect of a women's life, unfortunately in Pakistan fertility rates are quite high in comparison to other developing countries as well as in comparison to the other South Asian countries. Different studies have suggested that women empowerment can help reduce fertility rates. The present study has attempted to analyze the role of women empowerment along with other socioeconomic indicators on three different dimensions of the fertility behavior i.e. number of children born (current fertility status), ideal number of children and birth intervals (future fertility status. Data of Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS) 2012-13 has been used. The analysis consists of two levels, at level one a descriptive analysis is carried out. As three different aspects of fertility are the count data. Therefore at the next stage models will be estimated by using poison regression technique and Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) are reported. It has been found that women’s being empowered in financial matters, seeking health care and in household decision making are helpful in reducing fertility. Furthermore, participation in job by women, living in urban areas, having secondary or higher education, access to awareness created by the media, married at higher age are also significant factors in reducing fertility. However, women facing incidence of miscarriage or death of a child tends to increase the fertility. Study had found that wealth of the household, education of husband and having sons have very limited role on the fertility behavior.
生育是女性生活的一个重要方面,不幸的是,与其他发展中国家和其他南亚国家相比,巴基斯坦的生育率相当高。不同的研究表明,赋予妇女权力有助于降低生育率。本研究试图分析妇女赋权的作用以及其他社会经济指标在生育行为的三个不同维度上的作用,即出生子女数量(当前生育状况)、理想子女数量和生育间隔(未来生育状况)。使用2012-13年人口与健康调查(PDHS)数据。分析包括两个层次,在第一个层次进行描述性分析。生育率的三个不同方面是统计数据。因此,下一阶段将使用毒性回归技术对模型进行估计,并报告发病率比(IRR)。人们发现,妇女在经济事务、寻求保健和家庭决策方面获得权力有助于降低生育率。此外,妇女参加工作、居住在城市地区、受过中等或高等教育、获得媒体的宣传、结婚年龄较晚也是降低生育率的重要因素。然而,面临流产或儿童死亡的妇女往往会提高生育率。研究发现,家庭财富、丈夫的教育程度和是否生儿子对生育行为的影响非常有限。
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引用次数: 1
Study of Intertemporal Discounting According to Age Groups 基于年龄组的跨期折扣研究
IF 2.4 Pub Date : 2021-12-20 DOI: 10.52950/es.2021.10.2.008
Jiří Rotschedl
The paper focuses on the topic of intertemporal discounting of individuals according to age groups. Using the sample of examined individuals, it aims to verify the hypothesis that the patience of individuals decreases with their increasing age. The study included a total of 599 individuals with an average age of 38.3 years (min. 16 and max. 82 years) who answered classical questions focused on time discounting and impulsive behaviour. In total, four possible scenarios were analysed: a small reward (CZK 100) with a delay of 1 day, a small reward with a delay of 1 month, a large reward (CZK 100,000) with a delay of 1 day and a large reward with a delay of 1 month. The delayed reward was always increased by 10% (i.e., CZK 110 or CZK 110,000). The basic hypothesis was that with increasing age, the subjective discount rate increases i.e., patience decreases. The above-mentioned 4 scenarios were evaluated for the hypotheses, while only three of the four scenarios were confirmed for all hypotheses. The results in the examined individuals suggest that with increasing age, there is a decrease in patience and at the same time a decrease in impulsive behaviour. These findings may have an overlap in consumption or savings in relation to the aging population.
本文主要研究按年龄组对个体进行跨期贴现的问题。使用被检查个体的样本,旨在验证个体的耐心随着年龄的增长而下降的假设。这项研究共包括599名平均年龄38.3岁(最小16岁,最大82岁)的人,他们回答了关于时间折扣和冲动行为的经典问题。总共分析了四种可能的情况:延迟1天的小额奖励(100捷克克朗)、延迟1个月的小额奖励、延迟1天(100000捷克克朗)的大额奖励和延迟1个小时的大额奖励。延迟奖励总是增加10%(即110捷克克朗或110000捷克克朗)。基本假设是,随着年龄的增长,主观贴现率增加,即耐心下降。对上述4种情景进行了假设评估,而四种情景中只有三种情景得到了所有假设的证实。受试者的研究结果表明,随着年龄的增长,他们的耐心会下降,同时冲动行为也会减少。这些发现可能与老龄化人口在消费或储蓄方面存在重叠。
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引用次数: 0
The Causal Impact of the Rapid Czech Interest Rate Hike on the Czech Exchange Rate Assessed by the Bayesian Structural Time Series Model 用贝叶斯结构时间序列模型评估捷克快速加息对捷克汇率的因果影响
IF 2.4 Pub Date : 2021-12-20 DOI: 10.52950/es.2021.10.2.001
Ondřej Bednář
I have employed the Bayesian Structural Time Series model to assess the recent interest rate hike by the Czech Central Bank and its causal impact on the Koruna exchange rate. By forecasting exchange rate time series in the absence of the intervention we can subtract the observed values from the prediction and estimate the causal effect. The results show that the impact was little and time limited in one model specification and none in the second version. It implies that the Czech Central Bank possesses the ability to diverge significantly from the Eurozone benchmark interest rate at least in the short term. It also shows that the interest rate hike will not be able to curb global inflation forces on the domestic price level.
我使用贝叶斯结构时间序列模型来评估捷克中央银行最近的加息及其对克朗汇率的因果影响。通过在没有干预的情况下预测汇率时间序列,我们可以从预测中减去观测值并估计因果关系。结果表明,在一个模型规范中,影响很小且有时间限制,而在第二个版本中没有影响。这意味着,至少在短期内,捷克央行拥有明显偏离欧元区基准利率的能力。这也表明,加息将无法抑制全球通胀对国内物价水平的影响。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Economic Sciences
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