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2017 International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS)最新文献

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The forecast of development prospects of China's cross-border E-commerce based on grey system theory 基于灰色系统理论的中国跨境电子商务发展前景预测
Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2017.8077699
Yingying Su, Yijing Wang, Chuanmin Mi
According to the status quo that China's cross-border e-commerce is expanding rapidly, we selected the total imports and exports of China's cross-border e-commerce from 2008 to 2015 with a view to make some predictions. Firstly, using Grey System Theory, we partly establish GM(1,1) model and DGM(1,1) model to forecast and analyze the next five years' total imports and exports of China's cross-border e-commerce. Secondly, we compare the two types of models with the actual values and calculate the residual difference. Finally, we choose the one whose residual difference is smaller as the better model which could lead to more valid and precise prediction results in order to deepen people's understanding about the current situation and development prospects of China's cross-border e-commerce.
根据中国跨境电子商务快速发展的现状,我们选取了2008年至2015年中国跨境电子商务进出口总额进行预测。首先,运用灰色系统理论,部分建立了GM(1,1)模型和DGM(1,1)模型,对未来五年中国跨境电子商务进出口总额进行了预测和分析。其次,将两种模型与实际值进行比较,并计算残差。最后,我们选择残差越小的模型作为预测结果越有效和准确的模型,从而加深人们对中国跨境电子商务现状和发展前景的认识。
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引用次数: 4
Grey linear space based grey project scheduling 基于灰色线性空间的灰色项目调度
Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2017.8077665
Nanlei Chen, Nai-ming Xie, Bentao Su
Based on the idea of grey theory, the uncertain duration with clear extension but unclear intension in project scheduling can be characterized as the grey number. However, the operations of the grey number borrowed from other uncertainty theory had long puzzled scholars. This paper address grey project scheduling based on grey linear space. The grey linear operation based on grey linear space and comparison method based on the information background were proposed. Then grey project scheduling problem was studied. And the critical path method under grey linear space was developed. Finally, a numerical case was adopted to test effectiveness of proposed method. Results show grey project scheduling and grey critical path method could be established under grey linear space.
基于灰色理论的思想,将项目调度中外延明确、内涵不明确的不确定工期表示为灰色数。然而,借鉴其他不确定性理论的灰数运算一直困扰着学者们。本文研究了基于灰色线性空间的灰色项目调度问题。提出了基于灰色线性空间的灰色线性运算和基于信息背景的对比方法。然后研究了灰色项目调度问题。提出了灰色线性空间下的关键路径法。最后通过数值算例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,灰色线性空间下可以建立灰色项目调度和灰色关键路径方法。
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引用次数: 0
Ax three dimensional packing vehicle routing problem based on grey relation analysis 基于灰色关联分析的三维包装车辆路径问题
Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2017.8077671
Hong Liu, Qishan Zhang, Kuaisheng Zheng, Xiaoxiao Wang, Chuyue Lin
Fuel and exhaust gas emission is one of the main causes of environmental pollution due to transportation. In the logistics distribution network, considering customer satisfaction and three-dimensional container loading restraint and energy consumption, a multiobjection optimization model of vehicle routing is constructed in this paper, which is complex NP-Hard problem. A novel hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm is proposed for solving the multiobjection optimization model, which can give a Pareto solution set. In order to help the decision makers in choosing a balanced optimal reference solution from Pareto, grey relation analysis is introduced to evaluate Pareto solutions, and the three dimensional container loading vehicle routing optimization scheme with soft window constraint is obtained. The research results show that the optimization and the algorithm are feasible.
燃料和废气排放是造成交通环境污染的主要原因之一。在物流配送网络中,考虑客户满意度、集装箱三维装货约束和能源消耗,构建了一个复杂的NP-Hard问题的多目标车辆路径优化模型。针对多目标优化模型,提出了一种新的混合粒子群优化算法,该算法可以给出Pareto解集。为了帮助决策者从Pareto中选择一个平衡的最优参考解,引入灰色关联分析对Pareto解进行评价,得到了具有软窗约束的三维集装箱装载车辆路径优化方案。研究结果表明,该优化方法和算法是可行的。
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引用次数: 0
Applying principal component analysis and grey relation analysis to analyze the influence factors of quality and safety of dairy products in China 应用主成分分析和灰色关联分析对中国乳制品质量安全的影响因素进行了分析
Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2017.8077670
Dafang Li, Qingchun Wu
This paper tries to obtain the main factors influencing quality and safety of dairy products by using grey relation analysis model. We select 11 sub factors from four fields and confirm the system behavior character by applying principal component analysis. Finally, we find cow's milk yields, proportion of urban population, qualified rate of veterinary drug, qualified feed rate and the proportion of the population with College degree or above are the main factors influencing the quality and safety of dairy products. In light of the results, the paper concludes with some suggestions for local government to improve the quality and safety of dairy products.
本文试图利用灰色关联分析模型得到影响乳制品质量安全的主要因素。从4个领域中选取11个子因素,运用主成分分析法确定系统的行为特征。最后,我们发现奶牛产奶量、城市人口比例、兽药合格率、饲料合格率和大专及以上学历人口比例是影响乳制品质量安全的主要因素。在此基础上,对地方政府提高乳制品质量安全提出了建议。
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引用次数: 0
Grey relation analysis and trend predication for agricultural mechanization development levels in major granary provinces in China 中国粮仓大省农机化发展水平的灰色关联分析及趋势预测
Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2017.8077685
Sheng Wang, Chen Yang, Xue An, H. Duan, Yongchang Yu
In this paper, by using grey system theory, grey relation analysis and trend prediction was carried out for the influencing factors of agricultural mechanization development levels in major granary provinces in China. At present, the total power of agricultural mechanization, total income from agricultural mechanization, fuel consumption for agricultural production have great influence on the agricultural mechanization development levels. Meanwhile, the development of agricultural machinery industry also belongs to the extensive mode of profit driven. For the next 6 years, the influencing factors were predicted by using the grey relation analysis model, and give proposals about changing the current domestic agricultural enterprises for the status of the pursuit of profit in the low-end agricultural market competition, increasing investment in R & D funding and so on.
本文运用灰色系统理论,对中国粮食大省农机化发展水平的影响因素进行了灰色关联分析和趋势预测。目前,农业机械化总功率、农业机械化总收入、农业生产耗油量对农业机械化发展水平有较大影响。同时,农机行业的发展也属于利润驱动的粗放模式。运用灰色关联分析模型对未来6年的影响因素进行了预测,并提出了改变目前国内农业企业在低端农业市场竞争中追求利润、加大研发资金投入等现状的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Research on the construction of independent innovation capability in China based on grey comprehensive evaluation 基于灰色综合评价的中国自主创新能力建设研究
Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2017.8077716
N. Zhang, B. Li, Lin Liu
The study aims to research the effecting factors of the level of independent innovation ability in China, constructing innovation environment by the grey clustering model and build the national innovation capability evaluation index system, including the innovation input, innovation output and innovation potential of 4 indexes and 17 level two indexes. The related data of 26 countries was collected as sample and the center point of improved hybrid triangle whiten the function was used to divide area to four regions from the perspective of independent innovation ability based on the construction. This method provides the basis for the localization of independent innovation ability level of China, and finally finds out the reasons of China's independent innovation capacity development and puts forward relevant suggestions.
本研究旨在研究中国自主创新能力水平的影响因素,运用灰色聚类模型构建创新环境,构建包括创新投入、创新产出和创新潜力4个指标和17个二级指标的国家创新能力评价指标体系。以26个国家的相关数据为样本,利用改进的混合三角白化函数中心点,从自主创新能力的角度出发,在构建的基础上将区域划分为四个区域。该方法为中国自主创新能力水平的本土化提供依据,最终找出中国自主创新能力发展的原因,并提出相关建议。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting of sulfur dioxide emissions in China based on optimized DGM(1,1) 基于优化DGM的中国二氧化硫排放预测(1,1)
Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2017.8077694
Wei Meng, B. Zeng, Hui Huang
Sulfur dioxide is an important source of atmospheric pollution. It is harmful to ecosystems, buildings and humans. Many countries are developing policies to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions. In this paper, prediction of China's sulfur dioxide emissions is studied by discrete grey model with fractional operators. The forecast result shows that the amount of sulfur dioxide emissions is steadily decreasing and the reduction policy in China is effective. According to the current trend, by 2020, the value of China's sulfur dioxide emissions will be only 86.843% of emissions in 2015.
二氧化硫是大气污染的重要来源。它对生态系统、建筑物和人类都有害。许多国家正在制定减少二氧化硫排放的政策。本文采用带有分数算子的离散灰色模型对中国二氧化硫排放量进行预测研究。预测结果表明,中国的二氧化硫排放量在稳步下降,减排政策是有效的。按照目前的趋势,到2020年,中国的二氧化硫排放量将仅为2015年排放量的86.843%。
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引用次数: 2
Grey random dynamic multiple-attribute decision-making method 灰色随机动态多属性决策方法
Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2017.8077708
Haitao Li, Jiefang Wang, D. Luo, Dongyang Pang
In view of the uncertain multi-attribute decision-making problems when the state probabilities and options' attribute values are both three-parameter interval grey number, based on the application demand of risky investment decisions, a grey-stochastic risk dynamic multi-attribute decision making method based on Markov chain is proposed. The grey probability of state stochastic occurrence and the grey probability matrix of state stochastic transition are defined, then, the grey probability distribution of states at each future time is obtained based on the Markov chain transfer prediction method. Time weights are established by solving the optimization model, which is based on variance and time degree. Afterwards, the dynamic risk decision-making matrix is assembled into a static non-risk decision-making matrix. Finally, by means of constructing the optimal and inferior ideal projects, and based on Deng's grey relational analysis, the relative superior membership degree, which is used to measure the degree of each alternative project belonging to the optimal ideal project, can be figured out to rank the alternative projects. An example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.
针对状态概率和期权属性值均为三参数区间灰数时的不确定多属性决策问题,根据风险投资决策的应用需求,提出了一种基于马尔可夫链的灰色随机风险动态多属性决策方法。定义了状态随机发生的灰色概率和状态随机转移的灰色概率矩阵,然后基于马尔可夫链转移预测方法得到了未来各时刻状态的灰色概率分布。通过求解基于方差和时间度的优化模型,建立时间权重。然后,将动态风险决策矩阵组装为静态非风险决策矩阵。最后,通过构建最优和次优理想方案,并基于Deng的灰色关联分析,求出各备选方案属于最优理想方案的程度的相对优隶属度,对备选方案进行排序。算例验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。
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引用次数: 0
Kernel-based fuzzy C-means clustering based on fruit fly optimization algorithm 基于果蝇优化算法的核模糊c均值聚类
Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2017.8077713
Qiuping Wang, Yiran Zhang, Yanting Xiao, Jidong Li
Fuzzy clustering has emerged as an important tool for discovering the structure of data. Kernel based clustering has emerged as an interesting and quite visible alternative in fuzzy clustering. Aimed at the problems of both a local optimum and depending on initialization strongly in the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm (FCM), a method of kernel-based fuzzy c-means clustering based on fruit fly algorithms (FOAKFCM) is proposed in this paper. In this algorithm, the fruit fly algorithm is used to optimize the initial clustering center firstly, kernelbased fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm (KFCM) is used to classify data. At the same time we reference classification evaluation index to choose the fuzziness parameter in adaptive way. The clustering performance of FCM algorithm, KFCM algorithm, and the proposed algorithm is testified by test datasets. FCM algorithm and FOAKFCM are used for power load characteristic data classification, respectively. Experiment results show that FOAKFCM algorithm proposed overcomes FCM's defects efficiently and improves the clustering performance greatly.
模糊聚类已成为发现数据结构的重要工具。基于核的聚类已经成为模糊聚类中一种有趣且非常明显的替代方法。针对模糊c均值聚类算法(FCM)存在的局部最优和强烈依赖初始化的问题,提出了一种基于果蝇算法的基于核的模糊c均值聚类方法(FOAKFCM)。该算法首先利用果蝇算法对初始聚类中心进行优化,然后利用基于核的模糊c均值聚类算法(KFCM)对数据进行分类。同时参考分类评价指标,自适应地选择模糊参数。通过测试数据集验证了FCM算法、KFCM算法和本文算法的聚类性能。分别采用FCM算法和FOAKFCM算法对电力负荷特征数据进行分类。实验结果表明,提出的FOAKFCM算法有效地克服了FCM算法的缺陷,极大地提高了聚类性能。
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引用次数: 11
The urban employment matching decision-making of rural migrant workers based on grey incidence analysis 基于灰色关联分析的农民工城镇就业匹配决策
Pub Date : 2017-08-01 DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2017.8077672
Yong Liu, Hui Li, Xi Chen, B. Cao
With the accelerating process of urbanization, rural migrant workers flood into the cities. Research projects that aim at resettlement and employment promotion of these workers, social stability, as well as economic development have drawn attention of government and scholars alike. With respect to the matching problems of urban employment of rural migrant workers, grey incidence analysis and two-sided matching theory is exploited to establish a novel two-sided matching decision-making model between rural workers and their jobs. In this paper, first, grey incidence analysis is used to describe and measure the preference information and satisfaction degree of both rural workers and their jobs; from the perspective of satisfaction degree of matching subjects, stability of the matching plan and equality, a multi-objective optimization model for two-sided matching decision-making problem between rural workers and their jobs was constructed, based on minimum matching distance and minimum deviation of matching distance; then linear weighting method is exploited to convert the multi-objective matching model into a single-objective optimization model to determine the two-sided matching plan between rural workers and their jobs; finally, the real problem of urban employment of rural migrant workers is discussed.
随着城市化进程的加快,农民工大量涌入城市。以移民安置和促进就业、社会稳定和经济发展为目的的研究项目已引起政府和学者的关注。针对农民工在城镇就业的匹配问题,运用灰色关联分析和双边匹配理论,建立了一种新的农民工与就业的双边匹配决策模型。本文首先采用灰色关联分析法描述和度量农民工对工作的偏好信息和满意度;从匹配主体的满意度、匹配方案的稳定性和平等角度出发,构建了基于最小匹配距离和最小匹配距离偏差的农民工就业双边匹配决策问题的多目标优化模型;然后利用线性加权法将多目标匹配模型转化为单目标优化模型,确定农民工与就业的双边匹配方案;最后,对农民工城市就业的现实问题进行了探讨。
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引用次数: 0
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2017 International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS)
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