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Power Transition Theory Revisited: When Rising China Meets Dissatisfied United States 重新审视权力转移理论:崛起的中国面对不满的美国
IF 0.2 Q4 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2377740019500192
Serafettin Yilmaz, Wang Xiang-yu
Dissatisfaction is a major concept in power transition theory, which postulates that a rapidly rising power tends to be dissatisfied with the international system and would thus attempt to reform or replace it, whereas the hegemonic power would, by default, be satisfied with and work to maintain the status quo. This paper, however, offers an alternative outlook on the reigning-rising power dynamics by examining the conditions for and implications of hegemonic dissatisfaction and rising power satisfaction. It argues that although China, as a potential systemic challenger harboring grievances against the existing global regimes, has been a recurrent subject for studies, it is the United States, the established hegemon, that appears increasingly dissatisfied with the status quo. The U.S. dissatisfaction is informed by a set of internal and external factors often justified with a reference to China as a challenger, and is manifested in a number of anti-system strategies, including unconventional diplomatic rhetoric, as well as withdrawal from various international institutions or attempts to undermine them. The U.S. discontent, as contrasted with China’s satisfaction as a rising power, has a number of potential geopolitical and economic implications at the bilateral, regional, and global levels, endangering the viability and sustainability of the universally accepted political and economic regimes.
不满是权力过渡理论中的一个主要概念,该理论假设一个快速崛起的大国往往对国际体系感到不满,并因此试图改革或取代国际体系,而霸权国在默认情况下会满足并努力维持现状。然而,本文通过考察霸权不满和大国满意度上升的条件和影响,对正在崛起的大国动态提出了另一种看法。它认为,尽管中国作为一个对现有全球政权心怀不满的潜在系统性挑战者,一直是研究的反复主题,但美国这个老牌霸主似乎越来越不满意现状。美国的不满是由一系列内部和外部因素引起的,这些因素通常以中国是挑战者为理由,并表现在一系列反体制战略中,包括非常规外交言论,以及退出各种国际机构或试图破坏这些机构。与中国作为一个崛起大国的满意度形成鲜明对比的是,美国的不满情绪在双边、地区和全球层面上具有许多潜在的地缘政治和经济影响,危及普遍接受的政治和经济体制的可行性和可持续性。
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引用次数: 3
Toward a Transformed and Unequal World 走向一个变革和不平等的世界
IF 0.2 Q4 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2377740019500118
Shuai Feng
With the increasing use of machine learning algorithms in strategic decision-making and military affairs, the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is bringing about significant changes to the current international system. AI applications will further tilt the global balance of power in favor of actors who can make the best use of the emerging technology. AI-assisted automation is also changing prevailing socioeconomic production models on the global scale; and in the not too distant future, it is expected to exert systemic impacts on the current global order. Having recognized the full potential of AI technology in propelling the next industrial revolution, China has adopted an AI development strategy for guiding a nation-wide campaign to harness AI power at an early stage, so as to seize the strategic initiative in an emerging global AI competition. China’s initial efforts have produced remarkable achievements with theoretical and practical implications.
随着机器学习算法在战略决策和军事事务中的应用越来越多,人工智能革命正在给现行国际体系带来重大变化。人工智能应用将进一步倾斜全球力量平衡,有利于能够充分利用新兴技术的参与者。人工智能辅助的自动化也在全球范围内改变着主流的社会经济生产模式;在不久的将来,预计它将对当前的全球秩序产生系统性影响。认识到人工智能技术在推动下一次工业革命方面的全部潜力,中国制定了人工智能发展战略,指导在全国范围内开展早期利用人工智能力量的运动,以便在新兴的全球人工智能竞争中掌握战略主动权。中国的初步努力取得了显著成果,具有理论和实践意义。
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引用次数: 0
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor 中巴经济走廊
IF 0.2 Q4 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1142/S2377740019500131
Z. Khan
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) offers a massive platform for China and Pakistan to promote regional connectivity, trade growth, and infrastructure development. Pakistan views CPEC not only as an infrastructure and economic development program as well as a key initiative with wide-ranging implications for the country’s domestic economy and social makeup, but also a potential “game changer” in the regional situation. However, this project also faces grave internal and external challenges, such as route controversy, militancy, religious extremism, competing narratives, media propaganda, debt-trap accusation, and synergy of institutions. To make CPEC a sustainable project that benefits Pakistan and the whole of South Asia in the long run, both the Chinese and Pakistani governments need to address these challenges through greater transparency of the CPEC projects, as well as more consultation with all stakeholders involved, so as to ease their concerns about the profound implications of the grand project.
中巴经济走廊为中巴两国促进地区互联互通、贸易增长和基础设施建设提供了巨大平台。巴基斯坦认为中巴经济走廊不仅是基础设施和经济发展计划,也是对该国国内经济和社会构成具有广泛影响的关键倡议,而且是地区局势的潜在“游戏规则改变者”。然而,该项目也面临着严峻的内部和外部挑战,如路线争议、战斗性、宗教极端主义、竞争叙事、媒体宣传、债务陷阱指责、机构协同等。为了使中巴经济走廊成为一个可持续发展的项目,从长远来看有利于巴基斯坦和整个南亚地区,中巴两国政府都需要通过提高中巴经济走廊项目的透明度,以及与所有利益攸关方进行更多的磋商来应对这些挑战,以减轻他们对这一宏大项目深远影响的担忧。
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引用次数: 2
China’s Building of Overseas Military Bases: Rationale and Challenges 中国海外军事基地建设的理由与挑战
IF 0.2 Q4 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1142/s237774001950026x
X. Guifang, Zheng Jie
China’s military capability to perform out-of-area operations and provide international public goods falls short of the increasing need to protect its expanding economic, political, and security interests abroad. Overseas military bases can not only facilitate the soft application of China’s growing hard power, but also benefit the host nations in terms of national security, economic development, and job creation. A strong case can be made on both legal and precedential grounds for China’s construction of overseas military bases in the future. It is irreproachable for a great power like China to have overseas military installations as long as the Charter of the United Nations, host nations’ laws, and the longstanding non-intervention policy are upheld. Planning for overseas base-building must involve shaping an international environment that accepts Chinese military presence and conducting systemic risk assessments and practical solutions on such related matters as the location, size, functions, law enforcement, and maintenance of each military base.
中国执行域外行动和提供国际公共产品的军事能力,无法满足日益增长的保护其在海外不断扩大的经济、政治和安全利益的需求。海外军事基地不仅可以促进中国不断增长的硬实力的软应用,而且在国家安全、经济发展和创造就业方面也有利于东道国。今后中国在海外建设军事基地,有充分的法理和判例依据。像中国这样的大国,只要遵守《联合国宪章》、所在国法律和长期以来的不干涉政策,在海外设立军事设施是无可指责的。海外基地建设规划必须包括塑造一个接受中国军事存在的国际环境,并对每个军事基地的位置、规模、功能、执法和维护等相关问题进行系统的风险评估和切实可行的解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Rebalancing Global Climate Governance and China’s Endeavor 全球气候治理再平衡与中国的努力
IF 0.2 Q4 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2377740019500246
Yu Hongyuan
In December 2018, the 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Katowice, Poland, and reached a package of agreements. It provided a new opportunity for the promotion of global climate negotiations and new momentum for the transformation of global climate governance as well. The Katowice conference continued the tradition of the previous conferences in enhancing policy coordination and contribution among various actors. The success of the conference depends on scientific reports of climate disasters, coordinated efforts by major countries, and the contribution of various non-state actors. However, as an ongoing process, global climate governance is still faced by many difficulties, such as weak synergy, staggering development of global environmental governance, daunting challenges to least developed countries (LDCs) in climate actions, and lack of fairness, which need to be tackled through joint endeavor by both developed and developing countries. As the second largest economy and biggest greenhouse gas emitter, China’s future engagement in global climate governance will be focused on promoting green competitiveness, enhancing its institutional power in the governance process, and strengthening pragmatic multi-stakeholder climate diplomacy, so as to promote common understanding among countries and help with their policy coordination for climate actions.
2018年12月,《联合国气候变化框架公约》第二十四次缔约方大会在波兰卡托维兹举行,达成一系列协议。这为推动全球气候谈判提供了新机遇,也为全球气候治理转型提供了新动能。卡托维兹会议延续了前几次会议的传统,加强了各行动者之间的政策协调和贡献。会议的成功取决于气候灾害的科学报告、主要国家的协调努力以及各种非国家行为体的贡献。然而,全球气候治理作为一个持续的进程,仍面临诸多困难,如全球环境治理合力不强,全球环境治理发展滞后,最不发达国家在气候行动中面临严峻挑战,不公平等,需要发达国家和发展中国家共同努力解决。作为第二大经济体和第一大温室气体排放国,中国未来参与全球气候治理的重点将是提升绿色竞争力,增强治理过程中的制度力量,加强务实的多利益攸关方气候外交,以促进各国之间的共识,帮助各国在气候行动方面进行政策协调。
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引用次数: 2
China’s Belt and Road Initiative 2.0 中国“一带一路”倡议倡议2.0
IF 0.2 Q4 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2377740019500155
Jiahan Cao
As China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) quickly evolves into an updated version for realizing high-quality development, its long-term success will increasingly depend on how well it can earn international legitimacy and credibility. Since sustainability is a critical source of credibility for the BRI, it is necessary to move the BRI forward by amplifying its role as a development agenda and tapping its potential to support global sustainable development and facilitate implementation of the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (2030 Agenda) through delivering more public goods to other developing countries. The BRI projects designed to strengthen infrastructure inter-connectivity can greatly fit the developmental needs of countries along the routes and expedite their achievement of sustainable development goals (SDGs), both explicitly and implicitly. Besides, the growing alignment between the BRI and the 2030 Agenda will generate more strengths and opportunities for China to be recognized as an indispensable player in international development cooperation, enhance the capacity of the BRI to manage environmental, social and governance risks in host countries, promote social cohesion and inclusiveness along the routes, and ultimately transcend short-term economic and political interests for China to win the hearts and minds of other stakeholders involved in the BRI.
随着中国“一带一路”倡议倡议迅速演变为实现高质量发展的更新版本,其长期成功将越来越取决于其能否赢得国际合法性和公信力。由于可持续性是“一带一路”倡议可信度的重要来源,要进一步发挥“一带一路”倡议作为发展议程的作用,挖掘其潜力,支持全球可持续发展,通过向其他发展中国家提供更多公共产品,推动联合国2030年可持续发展议程(2030议程)的实施。旨在加强基础设施互联互通的“一带一路”倡议项目可以极大地满足沿线国家的发展需求,并加快其实现可持续发展目标,无论是明确的还是隐含的。此外,“一带一路”倡议与2030年议程的日益契合将为中国在国际发展合作中发挥不可或缺的作用带来更多优势和机遇,增强“一带一步”倡议应对东道国环境、社会和治理风险的能力,促进沿线社会凝聚力和包容性,最终超越短期经济和政治利益,赢得“一带一路”其他利益攸关方的心。
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引用次数: 0
Unique Role of Think Tank Exchange in Promoting the China-U.S. Relationship 中美智库交流在推动中美关系发展中的独特作用的关系
IF 0.2 Q4 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2377740019500167
You-Shi Yuan
Since the establishment of the China-U.S. diplomatic relationship, think tank exchange between both countries has undergone four phases, from very limited communication in the early years to a growing number of mutual visits, co-organized conferences and events, joint research projects, as well as representative offices or joint research/teaching programs set up in the past decade. China-U.S. think tank exchange plays a unique role in enhancing mutual understanding and mitigating distrust between both countries, thus contributing to bilateral strategic stability and closer cooperation. Under the Trump administration’s trade war and decoupling attempts toward China, however, bilateral think tank exchange has experienced a significant decline over the past few years, marked by increasing restrictions on each other’s visits, less willingness of some think tanks in such exchange, and more hardline policy stance on each other, especially from the American side. At this difficult time for China-U.S. relations, bilateral think tank exchange should be encouraged and strengthened so as to help bring the bilateral relationship back on track.
自中美关系建立以来。两国外交关系和智库交流经历了四个阶段,从最初非常有限的交流到近十年来越来越多的互访、联合举办会议和活动、联合研究项目以及设立代表处或联合研究/教学项目。中美。两国智库交流在增进相互了解、减少不信任方面发挥着独特作用,有利于促进两国战略稳定和密切合作。然而,在特朗普政府的贸易战和对中国的脱钩企图下,双边智库交流在过去几年里明显下降,表现为对彼此访问的限制增加,一些智库交流的意愿减弱,对彼此的政策立场更加强硬,特别是美国方面。在中美关系面临困难的时刻,应鼓励和加强两国关系、两国智库交流,推动两国关系重回正轨。
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引用次数: 1
U.S.-China Tech War 中美科技战
IF 0.2 Q4 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1142/s237774001950012x
Haiyong Sun
The Trump administration has waged a technological war against China due to the differences between China and the United States in political values and geopolitical pursuits, as well as their rivalry on regional and global arenas. The United States regards itself as being on the moral high ground in the existing international order and intends to force China to abandon its policies in high-tech industries and technology transfer from foreign enterprises, in order to maintain its global supremacy. With a zero-sum mentality, the Trump administration is trying to use the leverage of advanced science and technology to maximize benefits for the United States in trade with China. Its tech war attempts against China mainly include trade sanctions, investment control, export control, and restrictions on the exchange of technological personnel. These moves will further harm China-U.S. security relations as well as their science and technology cooperation and undermine the regional situation and global science and technology governance. In order to promote sustainable global development and strategic stability, both sides need to undertake more effective efforts to manage their strategic competition, build a more balanced and mutually beneficial relationship in high-tech industries, and expand the space for cooperation in the field of global science and technology governance.
由于中美在政治价值观和地缘政治追求方面的差异,以及在地区和全球舞台上的竞争,特朗普政府对中国发动了一场技术战争。美国认为自己处于现有国际秩序中的道德高地,并打算迫使中国放弃其高科技产业和外国企业技术转让政策,以保持其全球霸主地位。特朗普政府抱着零和心态,试图利用先进科学技术的杠杆作用,在对华贸易中为美国带来最大利益。其针对中国的技术战争企图主要包括贸易制裁、投资控制、出口控制和限制技术人员交流。这些举动将进一步损害中美安全关系和科技合作,破坏地区局势和全球科技治理。为了促进全球可持续发展和战略稳定,双方需要做出更有效的努力来管理各自的战略竞争,在高科技产业领域建立更加平衡和互利的关系,并扩大全球科技治理领域的合作空间。
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引用次数: 6
Intercultural Gaps Between Indonesia and China on the Belt and Road Initiative: Causes and Remedies 印尼与中国在“一带一路”倡议上的文化差异:原因与补救
IF 0.2 Q4 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2377740019500234
Paulus Rudolf Yuniarto
In implementing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), there remains a huge perception gap between China and Indonesia. Differences in ideology, politics, race, religion, and ethnicity are hindering the great potential of the BRI from being fully realized. To bridge the gap and enhance mutual understanding, people-to-people exchange between both countries should be accorded greater significance. In addition, strengthening bilateral cooperation in education, labor, tourism, and culture can bring positive spill-over effects beyond basic intercultural learning. Such non-infrastructure cooperation creates more room for people-to-people bonds to flourish, where economic interests are not blindly pursued. Deepened mutual understanding will, in turn, help achieve the major goals of the BRI and promote the building of a community of shared future along the route.
在实施“一带一路”倡议的过程中,中国和印尼之间存在巨大的认知差距。意识形态、政治、种族、宗教、民族等差异阻碍了“一带一路”的巨大潜力得到充分发挥。为弥合分歧,增进相互了解,应更加重视两国人文交流。此外,加强两国在教育、劳工、旅游和文化等领域的合作,可以带来超越基本跨文化学习的积极溢出效应。这种非基础设施合作为民心相通创造了更多空间,不盲目追求经济利益。深化相互了解,有利于实现“一带一路”倡议的主要目标,推动构建“一带一路”命运共同体。
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引用次数: 4
The UK’s China Policy under U.S.-China Strategic Rivalry 中美战略对抗下的英国对华政策
IF 0.2 Q4 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1142/s2377740019500106
S. Tim
This paper looks at issues in the formation of the United Kingdom’s policy toward China during a period of growing strategic rivalry between the United States and China, focusing particularly on the relationship between policy debates and the output of UK-based think tanks on China. By analyzing the policy debate and think tank output on three current key themes, including maritime politics in the South China Sea, whether to allow Chinese companies to participate or invest in “critical national infrastructure,” and China’s suspected “interference” in other countries’ domestic politics, this paper shows that UK-based think tanks tend to prioritize security concerns more than economic opportunities with regard to the UK’s China policy. Nevertheless, the impact of U.S.-China tensions and of policy advocacy and research on the UK is issue-dependent.
本文着眼于在美中战略竞争日益激烈的时期,英国对华政策的形成过程中的问题,特别关注政策辩论与英国智库对华研究成果之间的关系。通过分析当前三个关键主题的政策辩论和智库产出,包括南海的海洋政治,是否允许中国公司参与或投资“关键国家基础设施”,以及中国涉嫌“干涉”其他国家的国内政治,本文表明,就英国的对华政策而言,英国智库倾向于优先考虑安全问题,而不是经济机会。然而,美中关系紧张以及政策倡导和研究对英国的影响是与问题相关的。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies
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