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DESENTRALISASI FISKAL DAN PENCIPTAAN STABILITAS KEUANGAN DAERAH 该地区分散的财政和金融稳定创造
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V13I1.88
J. Haryanto, Ester Sri Astuti
Indonesia has been implemented decentralization era since 2001 in order to increasing local empowerment and local capability. During this period central government gave a all of the authority to the local government excepted authority for the political, finance,national defence, justice and religion. Beside gave the authority to the local government, central government also gave the source of the financing to the local government to meet the money follows function principle. Financial stability is the most important things on the monetary area. Many theorytical background described that decentralization have relation with the local financial stability.Using statistic approach (panel data) we could be proved that decentralization have negative relation with the local financial stability and also the other variable such as population, GRDP, constriction price index and volatility of money
印度尼西亚自2001年以来实施了权力下放时代,以增强地方权力和地方能力。在这一时期,中央政府将除政治、财政、国防、司法和宗教权力外的所有权力都交给了地方政府。中央政府在赋予地方政府权力的同时,也将资金来源交给地方政府,以满足财政职能原则。金融稳定是货币领域最重要的事情。许多理论背景都描述了分权与地方金融稳定的关系。利用统计方法(面板数据),我们可以证明地方分权与地方金融稳定以及其他变量如人口、gdp、紧缩价格指数和货币波动率呈负相关
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引用次数: 5
DAMPAK PEREKONOMIAN GLOBAL TERHADAP KONDISI MAKROEKONOMI INDONESIA 全球经济对印尼宏观经济状况的影响
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V14I2.66
R. Nurhidajat
The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of relationship between global economy represented by US economy and Indonesia's economy by quarterly data. In this paper, domestic variables are Gross Domestic product (GDP), intersest rate, composite price index and exchange rate. Meanwhile, The global variables used are Gross Domestic product (GDP), intersest rate, and composite price index. Struktural VAR is employed to test these relationship. The quarterly data are between 1999 through 2008. The result of this reseach is Indonesia as a small open economy is influenced by global economy. The Government of Indonesia should give more attention to US GDP as the most influent variable of international variables.
本文的目的是通过季度数据分析以美国经济为代表的全球经济与印尼经济之间的关系。在本文中,国内变量为国内生产总值(GDP)、利率、综合物价指数和汇率。同时,使用的全球变量是国内生产总值(GDP)、利率和综合物价指数。采用结构VAR对这些关系进行检验。季度数据是在1999年到2008年之间。本研究的结果是印度尼西亚作为一个小型的开放经济体受到全球经济的影响。印尼政府应该更加重视美国GDP作为国际变量中最具影响力的变量。
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引用次数: 0
OVERVIEW ATAS TRANSPARANSI FISKAL DALAM PERSPEKTIF RISIKO: SUATU KOMPARATIF DAN STUDI LITERATUR 从风险的角度来审视财政透明度:比较和文献研究
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V13I1.86
Makhlani Makhlani
Untuk pertama kalinya, Pernyataan Risiko Fiskal (Statement ofFiscal Risks) diungkap dalam Nota Keuangan APBN 2008, sebagai praktek baru di bidang keuangan negara untuk menyatakan adanya risiko fiskal. Pengungkapan (disclosure) risiko fiskal sangat penting dilakukan, karena awareness terhadap bahaya ada risiko tersembunyi akan meningkat sehingga diharapkan otoritas fiskal akan mampu merespons dengan baik kemungkinan adanya ancaman terhadap ekonomi nasional pada tahun-tahun mendatang. Selanjutnya, dalam upaya meningkatkan kualitas pengelolaan risiko fiskal, maka studi banding dan literatur merupakan suatu yang perlu dilakukan. Membandingkan praktek pengungkapan risiko fiskal dengan Australia, New Zealand, dan Brazil, dan mendalami literatur yang terkait dengan pengelolaan risiko fiskal akan memperoleh gambaran sejauh mana Indonesia telah melaksanakan best practices and codes. Terdapat 2 (dua) temuan penting yang patut dipelajari lebih lanjut yaitu Pernyataan Risiko Fiskal harus didasari peraturan perundangan yang kuat dan dapat mengikat semua pihak pencetus risiko (contracting agencies), dan ketiga negara tersebut di atas semakin mampu membagi dan memecah (unbundling) risiko.
有史以来第一次,财政风险的声明(声明ofFiscal 2008 p 2014金融风险)备忘录中公布,作为国家金融领域的新做法是为了表达财政风险的存在。披露(disclosure)对危险很重要的事情,因为财政风险意识有隐藏的风险会增加,所以预计财政权威被威胁的可能性,能够很好地回应对国民经济的岁月。此外,为了提高财政风险管理的质量,上诉和文学研究是必要的。比较披露做法与澳大利亚、新西兰和巴西财政风险与风险管理相关的文献,沉浸在财政将获得印尼在多大程度上执行了画面最佳实践和代码。有两个(两个)非常重要的发现是值得研究的,即财政风险声明应以一种强大的法律法规为基础,能够约束所有风险仲裁者(对抗性机构),上述三个国家越来越有能力分裂和分裂风险(unbundling)。
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引用次数: 1
DETERMINAN INFLASI REGIONAL KOTA-KOTA DI PROVINSI JAWA BARAT TAHUN 2000 - 2009
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V16I1.24
Telisa Aulia Falianty, Luthfi Hanifah
This research is intended to analyze determining variables of regional inflation at cities of West Java Province during 2000 - 2009. This study is motivated by the facts that inflation is known as an important indicator for economic development planning. Therefore, managing inflation rate become important for government to arrange their national development planning. Managing national inflation should follow whit managing regional inflation. Thus, identijying regional inflation determining variables become important process for managing phase of regional inflation. Approximation for regional inflation determining variable are monetary variables and non monetary variables. Monetary variables consist of real interest rate, while non monetary variables consist of regional indigenous income (PAD), regional expenditure, infrastructure condition, minimum wages rate, and inflation rate of DKl Jakarta. Method research for analysis is utilizes data panel regression Of G2SLS (Generalized two stage least square) with fixed effect method. The findings of this study point out that regional inflation at cities of West Java Province significantly affected by real interest rate, minimum wages rate, infrastructure condition, inflation rate of DKl Jakarta, regional indigenous income (PAD), and regional expenditure. Thus, shown that cost push effect system and demand pull effect system is work on to determine regional inflation at cities of West Java Province. This research also finding that regional that regional interaction is influencing regional inflation rate as shown on interaction between DKl Jakarta Province and cities in West Java Province which presumtive cause by distribution system of goods, commodity, and services from production area to consumption area.
本研究旨在分析2000 - 2009年西爪哇省各城市区域通货膨胀的决定变量。这项研究的动机是,通货膨胀是众所周知的经济发展规划的一个重要指标。因此,管理好通货膨胀率成为政府制定国家发展规划的重要内容。管理国家通货膨胀应该在管理地区通货膨胀之后。因此,识别区域通货膨胀决定变量成为管理区域通货膨胀阶段的重要过程。区域通货膨胀决定变量近似为货币变量和非货币变量。货币变量包括实际利率,而非货币变量包括区域本地收入(PAD)、区域支出、基础设施状况、最低工资率和雅加达DKl的通货膨胀率。方法研究是利用固定效应的广义两阶段最小二乘法的数据面板回归进行分析。本研究结果指出,西爪哇省各城市的区域通货膨胀受到实际利率、最低工资率、基础设施状况、雅加达DKl通货膨胀率、区域土著收入(PAD)和区域支出的显著影响。结果表明,本文研究了成本推动效应和需求拉动效应系统对西爪哇省城市区域通货膨胀的影响。本研究还发现,区域相互作用正在影响区域通货膨胀率,如雅加达省与西爪哇省城市之间的相互作用,这可能是由商品、商品和服务从生产区到消费区分配系统造成的。
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引用次数: 2
The Development of Local Government Empowerment Model to Support Kredit Usaha Rakyat s Program (KUR) for Poverty Alleviation 发展地方政府赋权模式以支持人民信贷扶贫计划
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/kek.v17i3.11
Bachtiar Rifai
Indonesian government has been launched poverty alleviation framework which consists of Four Clusters such as: Direct Transfer (BLT'); National Program for Community Empowerment (PNPMJ; Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR); and energy, housing, transportation for poor. Unfortunately, KUR hasn't reached poor and reduce the poverty significantly. It is predicted that Local Government hasn't involved structurally and formally in KUR’s implementation. The study is developed from primary and secondary data which has been conducted since 2012 in Five Provinces (Central Java, East Java, Bengkulu, Yogyakarta and Mataram). Primary data were generated by three instruments such as questionnaire (600 units which was divided into two group- KUR and non KUR), in depth interview for key persons and Focus Group Discussion which was representing stakeholder. The result shows that the roles of Local Government in KUR implementation are still limited. It can be identified as follows: being administrator for Communication for KUR, socialization in SMEs, and facilitating for KUR assistant for SMEs. One of obstacles is Local Government hasn't engaged yet on KUR syndications.
印尼政府已经启动了扶贫框架,该框架由四个集群组成:直接转移(BLT);国家社区赋权方案;国民信贷(KUR);穷人的能源,住房,交通。不幸的是,库尔德斯坦并没有达到贫困水平,也没有显著减少贫困。据预测,地方政府尚未从结构上和形式上参与kur_的实施。该研究是根据2012年以来在五个省(中爪哇省、东爪哇省、明古鲁省、日惹省和马塔兰省)开展的初级和二级数据制定的。主要数据由三种工具产生,如问卷调查(600个单位,分为两组- KUR和非KUR),对关键人物的深度访谈和代表利益相关者的焦点小组讨论。结果表明,地方政府在实施kurr中的作用仍然有限。可以确定为:作为中小企业沟通的管理者,作为中小企业社会化的管理者,作为中小企业创业助理的促进者。障碍之一是地方政府还没有参与库尔德人的辛迪加。
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引用次数: 0
INTERNATIONAL LINKAGES TO THE INDONESIAN CAPITAL MARKET : COINTEGRATION TEST 印尼资本市场的国际联系:协整检验
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V16I2.43
Yoopi Abimanyu, Nur Sigit Warsidi, Sunu Kartiko, Ridiani Kurnia, Tety Mahrani
This paper explores the international linkages of the Indonesian capital market using cointegration tests to examine the long-run equilibrium relationship between the stock markets of Indonesia with China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Netherlands, Philippine, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The method used in this paper is visual inspection, followed by Johansen cointegration. Our results show that there exist cointegration between these stock market indices except between Indonesia and Philippine.
本文运用协整检验方法探讨印尼资本市场与中国、法国、德国、香港、日本、韩国、马来西亚、荷兰、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、台湾、英国和美国股市之间的长期均衡关系。本文使用的方法是目视检验,其次是约翰森协整。结果表明,除印尼和菲律宾股市指数之间存在协整关系外,其他股市指数之间存在协整关系。
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引用次数: 6
Religion and Cultural Factors in Bilateral Trade between Indonesia and ASEAN Member Countries 印尼与东盟双边贸易中的宗教与文化因素
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V18I2.46
Fino Valico Waristi
This study focus on the roles of culture and religion in explaining the bilateral trade between Indonesia and the member of ASEAN countries. This research uses the theory of gravity (Gravity Model) by applying random effect and Pooled Regressions analysis in measuring the correlation between set variables. The tested variables are Indonesia's Real GDP, Real GDP of ASEAN countries, Distances, cost of trade, variable of Religion and Cultural factors, during the period of 2002 and 2011. We used secondary data from CEIC, CEPIl, and Hofstede index. The results show that religon does not significantly affect the bilateral trade, while culture similarity has tendencies to affect bilateral trade. Meanwhile, the result supports prior analysis that the distance variable has strong correlation to the bilateral trade. This study implies the need for further studies on the application of gravity models to explain bilateral trade within countries in the region.
本研究的重点是文化和宗教在解释印尼和东盟成员国之间的双边贸易中的作用。本研究运用重力理论(gravity Model),运用随机效应和Pooled regression分析来衡量集合变量之间的相关性。被检验的变量是2002年和2011年期间印度尼西亚的实际GDP,东盟国家的实际GDP,距离,贸易成本,宗教和文化因素变量。我们使用来自CEIC、CEPIl和Hofstede指数的辅助数据。结果表明,宗教对双边贸易的影响不显著,而文化相似性有影响双边贸易的趋势。同时,该结果支持了先前的分析,即距离变量与双边贸易具有较强的相关性。这项研究表明,需要进一步研究重力模型的应用,以解释该区域各国内部的双边贸易。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the Ability to Pay for Disaster Insurance Program 灾害保险项目支付能力分析
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/kek.v18i1.32
A. Siswanto
Indonesia is disaster-prone countries. Then the disaster mitigation and adaptation, with insurance as one available option, need to be considered. Insurance scheme can be applied as an alternative to allocate the burden of disaster cost, not only to government and households but also to insurance companies. This study examines the ability to pay of the households for the insurance program in different provinces using the data of the Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional (Susenas] for the year 2010. The result is there are some provinces with high vulnerability index but low ability to pay for insurance expenses; and vice versa. Potential spending on average for catastrophe insurance is at 2.8 percent i.e. the portion of household expenditures that potentially. can be allocated to disaster premium insurance payments.
印度尼西亚是灾害多发国家。然后,需要考虑将保险作为一种可用选择的减灾和适应措施。保险计划可以作为一种替代方案,将灾害费用的负担不仅分配给政府和家庭,而且分配给保险公司。本研究使用国家社会经济调查(Susenas) 2010年的数据,考察了不同省份家庭的保险支付能力。结果表明,部分省份脆弱性指数较高,但保险费用支付能力较低;反之亦然。巨灾保险的平均潜在支出为2.8%,即家庭支出中可能。可拨付灾害保险费的保险款项。
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引用次数: 1
Monthly ICP Projection Model Using Arima Method 使用Arima方法的月度ICP预测模型
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V18I1.37
Rudi Handoko
Indonesian crude oil price assumption, or commonly abbreviated as ICP plays an important role in the management of state finances. This paper aims to make an ICP projection model monthly. This paper uses econometric methods time series Box-Jenkin or ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). After following the Box-Jenkin methodology, estimation results indicate that the best model to forecast the monthly ICP is ARIMA (1,2,1). Results projection ARIMA (1,2,1) with a static method is more accurate than the dynamic method with a deviation of only 0.8%. If using the static method outlook for ICP in 2014 will be in the range of US$106/bareI - US$108/barel. Policy recommendations related to the price of oil is to determine the Indonesian crude oil price assumption (ICP) suggested using ARIMA (1,2,1). The oil price models have important implications in the management of state finances, namely the ARIMA model can help establish the assumption of ICP and help respond in the event of oil price fluctuations.
印尼原油价格假设,或通常简称为ICP,在国家财政管理中起着重要作用。本文旨在每月建立一个ICP预测模型。本文采用计量经济学方法对时间序列Box-Jenkin或ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)进行分析。在采用Box-Jenkin方法后,估计结果表明,预测月度ICP的最佳模型是ARIMA(1,2,1)。结果用静态方法投影ARIMA(1,2,1)比用动态方法投影ARIMA(1,2,1)更准确,误差仅为0.8%。如果使用静态方法,2014年的ICP前景将在106美元/桶至108美元/桶之间。与石油价格相关的政策建议是确定使用ARIMA(1,2,1)建议的印度尼西亚原油价格假设(ICP)。石油价格模型对国家财政管理具有重要影响,即ARIMA模型可以帮助建立ICP假设,并有助于在石油价格波动的情况下作出反应。
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引用次数: 0
ANALISIS SEKTOR-SEKTOR UNGGULAN DALAM MENGGERAKKAN SEKTOR RIIL 影响实体部门的关键部门分析
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V14I1.81
Arti Dyah Woroutami
External fluctuation happened on global economy could be anticipated by Indonesia Government through a good coordination between fiscal and monetary policy. It is reflected from the Indonesia's positive economic growth on 2009 which reached 4,5 percent. But Indonesia's economic growth acceleration still retained by the low activity on real sector, so worried about the creation ofsustainable economic growth. Regarding that, it needs priority sharpening for sectors which has superiority on motivating the economy.To answer the problem, this article seek to identify business sectors which has superiority within economy and to formulate the policy needed to develop those sectors. The analysis is done by using Input Output table with baclcward linkage and forward linkage approach. Because of the limited data source, the analysis only from year 2000 until 2005.The output shows that there are 6 (six) sectors which has superiority within economy, that is Chemical Industry, Pesticide Fertilizer Industiy, Other Food industry, Rubber and Pesticide Industry, All-kind of Flour Industry, and Water, Gas and Electricity. For those superior sectors needs to be done a priority program thorugh budget spending policy.
印尼政府通过财政和货币政策的良好协调,可以预见到全球经济的外部波动。这反映在印尼2009年经济增长达到4.5%的正增长上。但印尼经济增长的加速仍然受到实体部门活动低迷的影响,因此担心能否创造可持续的经济增长。在这方面,对拉动经济有优势的领域需要优先打磨。为了回答这个问题,本文试图找出经济中具有优势的商业部门,并制定发展这些部门所需的政策。采用输入输出表的前向链接和后向链接方法进行分析。由于资料来源有限,仅从2000年至2005年进行分析。从产量来看,我市经济中具有优势的行业有化工、农药、其他食品、橡胶农药、各类面粉、水、气、电6个行业。对于那些优势部门需要做一个优先方案,通过预算支出政策。
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引用次数: 0
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