Abstract:The main purpose of this paper stems from the need for a systematic study of the multiple components that determine the factors that attract residents of urban centers to rural areas in Greece. Based on Multicriteria Analysis (Explanatory Factor Analysis and Hierarchical Analysis) of the last censuses data (2001–2011), the main types (spatial patterns) of Greek municipalities that have potential prospects for settlement are assessed. At the same time, age profiles of people who tend to enter specific types of municipalities are explored, highlighting both the attractiveness factors of the rural areas and what the internal migrant is looking for at the settlement destination. Distinct spatial patterns of counterurbanization can be identified in Greece based on age, physical amenities, employment structures, offer of services, degree of isolation, and the cost of living in the recipient location. Finally, the results identify that spatial, demographic, social and economic inequalities are decisive in the interpretation of internal migration flows.
{"title":"Determinants and Spatial Patterns of Counterurbanization in Times of Crisis: Evidence from Greece","authors":"E. Anastasiou, M. Duquenne","doi":"10.1353/prv.2020.0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2020.0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:The main purpose of this paper stems from the need for a systematic study of the multiple components that determine the factors that attract residents of urban centers to rural areas in Greece. Based on Multicriteria Analysis (Explanatory Factor Analysis and Hierarchical Analysis) of the last censuses data (2001–2011), the main types (spatial patterns) of Greek municipalities that have potential prospects for settlement are assessed. At the same time, age profiles of people who tend to enter specific types of municipalities are explored, highlighting both the attractiveness factors of the rural areas and what the internal migrant is looking for at the settlement destination. Distinct spatial patterns of counterurbanization can be identified in Greece based on age, physical amenities, employment structures, offer of services, degree of isolation, and the cost of living in the recipient location. Finally, the results identify that spatial, demographic, social and economic inequalities are decisive in the interpretation of internal migration flows.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"20 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84645349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Birth interval is the period between two live births of a woman. In Indonesia, the National Family Planning Agency recommends a birth interval of between 36–60 months to reduce the risk of maternal and child mortality. The objective of this research is to analyze birth intervals and their relationship with infant mortality using survival analysis of data from the 2017 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey. Infant mortality was calculated using person-years, and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to describe the relationship between infant mortality and preceding birth interval. The Cox proportional hazard model was used for multivariate analysis, revealing a negative relationship between birth interval and infant mortality. For each one-year increase in birth length, there is a reduction in infant mortality of 11.9 percent. This study also shows that the economic status of mother significantly affects infant mortality, with babies born to poor mothers 1.84 times more likely to die.
{"title":"Birth Intervals and Infant Mortality in Indonesia","authors":"Irdam Ahmad, Yulintin Riana Dewi","doi":"10.1353/prv.2020.0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2020.0003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Birth interval is the period between two live births of a woman. In Indonesia, the National Family Planning Agency recommends a birth interval of between 36–60 months to reduce the risk of maternal and child mortality. The objective of this research is to analyze birth intervals and their relationship with infant mortality using survival analysis of data from the 2017 Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey. Infant mortality was calculated using person-years, and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to describe the relationship between infant mortality and preceding birth interval. The Cox proportional hazard model was used for multivariate analysis, revealing a negative relationship between birth interval and infant mortality. For each one-year increase in birth length, there is a reduction in infant mortality of 11.9 percent. This study also shows that the economic status of mother significantly affects infant mortality, with babies born to poor mothers 1.84 times more likely to die.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82519574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:This paper analyzes the evolution of life expectancy in Algeria since Independence in 1962, using an epidemiological transition framework. The general transition trend was fitted with an S-logistic function, while a break-point analysis – including jumps – was performed to detect methodological changes and extreme event effects. Results show evidence of the epidemiological transition of the Algerian population. Apparent jumps in the time series of life expectancy evolution appear to be due to updates of the correction factors for death under registration, misestimation of the population structure during the intercensal periods, and impacts of the civil war during the 1990s.
{"title":"Analyzing the Trend of Life Expectancy Evolution in Algeria from 1962 to 2018: The S-logistic Segmentation with Jumps","authors":"Farid Flici","doi":"10.1353/prv.2020.0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2020.0002","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:This paper analyzes the evolution of life expectancy in Algeria since Independence in 1962, using an epidemiological transition framework. The general transition trend was fitted with an S-logistic function, while a break-point analysis – including jumps – was performed to detect methodological changes and extreme event effects. Results show evidence of the epidemiological transition of the Algerian population. Apparent jumps in the time series of life expectancy evolution appear to be due to updates of the correction factors for death under registration, misestimation of the population structure during the intercensal periods, and impacts of the civil war during the 1990s.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"38 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90279833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:This article investigates interracial marriage as part of a social reproduction process, looking at to what extent parental endogamy influences the endogamy of a child and how parental race affects the race of a child’s spouse. Data from the Brazilian Social Survey (PESB) for the year 2002 and logit models are used. The characteristics of parental union may influence the choice of a child’s partner through different mechanisms: i) socialization, ii) structural aspects of the individual’s marriage market, and iii) direct parental influence regarding partner choice. The results show that, on average, children of racially endogamous couples are about 78.8% more likely to be in an endogamous union themselves than in a racially exogamous marriage. Parental education is also significant. This means that higher parental education leads to an increased probability of an endogamous union. The results by type of parental union show that parental race matters only for exogamous couples, and an individual’s own race is more relevant among children of endogamous parents. The results for the analysis of parental race and the race of a child’s spouse show that having nonwhite parents decreases the probability of a child marrying a white spouse. For this specific case, parental education is not statistically significant. These results reinforce the race hierarchy in the process of racial assortative mating, when considering an individual’s own race and the race of their parents. The aspect of the intergenerational transmission of racial endogamy, as it relates to partner choice, is also clarified.
{"title":"Parent’s and Child’s Interracial Marriage in Brazil: An Analysis of Intermarriage as an Intergenerational Transmission Process","authors":"Maria Carolina Tomás","doi":"10.1353/prv.2020.0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2020.0001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:This article investigates interracial marriage as part of a social reproduction process, looking at to what extent parental endogamy influences the endogamy of a child and how parental race affects the race of a child’s spouse. Data from the Brazilian Social Survey (PESB) for the year 2002 and logit models are used. The characteristics of parental union may influence the choice of a child’s partner through different mechanisms: i) socialization, ii) structural aspects of the individual’s marriage market, and iii) direct parental influence regarding partner choice. The results show that, on average, children of racially endogamous couples are about 78.8% more likely to be in an endogamous union themselves than in a racially exogamous marriage. Parental education is also significant. This means that higher parental education leads to an increased probability of an endogamous union. The results by type of parental union show that parental race matters only for exogamous couples, and an individual’s own race is more relevant among children of endogamous parents. The results for the analysis of parental race and the race of a child’s spouse show that having nonwhite parents decreases the probability of a child marrying a white spouse. For this specific case, parental education is not statistically significant. These results reinforce the race hierarchy in the process of racial assortative mating, when considering an individual’s own race and the race of their parents. The aspect of the intergenerational transmission of racial endogamy, as it relates to partner choice, is also clarified.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"29 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81414563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Differences in the transition to first motherhood in Italy have usually been explained using women’s educational attainment, income, or employment instability. Our aim is to analyse whether, and how, entries into motherhood also vary by field of study. Drawing on the Indagine Longitudinale delle Famiglie Italiane (ILFI) up to 2005, we ran discrete-time hazard rate models. The results show that in Italy highly educated women trained in science and technology are not the least prone to enter into motherhood. Rather, three distinct groups of women emerge: a) those with a general upper secondary diploma and with a degree in medicine, who are the least likely to become first-time mothers; b) those with a degree in teaching and psychology, who are the most likely to become mothers; c) those trained in all other fields, who show no difference in timing to first birth. Thus, the woman’s level and type of education seem to matter much less than what has been found in other countries. In a context with still relatively traditional gender roles and family formation processes, and with relatively weak returns to education, education appears to matter most in the transition to first union.
{"title":"Does the Field of Study Affect Entry into Motherhood? Evidence from Italy","authors":"C. Solera, Teresa Martín-García","doi":"10.1353/prv.2020.0000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2020.0000","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Differences in the transition to first motherhood in Italy have usually been explained using women’s educational attainment, income, or employment instability. Our aim is to analyse whether, and how, entries into motherhood also vary by field of study. Drawing on the Indagine Longitudinale delle Famiglie Italiane (ILFI) up to 2005, we ran discrete-time hazard rate models. The results show that in Italy highly educated women trained in science and technology are not the least prone to enter into motherhood. Rather, three distinct groups of women emerge: a) those with a general upper secondary diploma and with a degree in medicine, who are the least likely to become first-time mothers; b) those with a degree in teaching and psychology, who are the most likely to become mothers; c) those trained in all other fields, who show no difference in timing to first birth. Thus, the woman’s level and type of education seem to matter much less than what has been found in other countries. In a context with still relatively traditional gender roles and family formation processes, and with relatively weak returns to education, education appears to matter most in the transition to first union.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"8 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79244971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Viktoria Riiman, Amalee Wilson, Reed Milewicz, P. Pirkelbauer
Abstract:Artificial neural network (ANN) models are rarely used to forecast population in spite of their growing prominence in other fields. We compare the forecasts generated by ANN long short-term memory models (LSTM) with population projections from the traditional cohort-component method (CCM) for counties in Alabama, USA. The evaluation includes projections for all 67 counties, which are diverse in population and socioeconomic characteristics. When comparing projected values with total population counts from the 2010 decennial census, the CCM used by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Alabama in 2001 produced comparable or better results than a basic multi-county ANN LSTM model. Results from ANN models improve when we use single-county models or proxy for a forecaster’s experience and personal judgment with potential economic forecasts. The results indicate the significance of forecaster’s experience/judgment for CCM and the difficulty, but not impossibility, of substituting these insights with available data.
{"title":"Comparing Artificial Neural Network and Cohort-Component Models for Population Forecasts","authors":"Viktoria Riiman, Amalee Wilson, Reed Milewicz, P. Pirkelbauer","doi":"10.1353/prv.2019.0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2019.0008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Artificial neural network (ANN) models are rarely used to forecast population in spite of their growing prominence in other fields. We compare the forecasts generated by ANN long short-term memory models (LSTM) with population projections from the traditional cohort-component method (CCM) for counties in Alabama, USA. The evaluation includes projections for all 67 counties, which are diverse in population and socioeconomic characteristics. When comparing projected values with total population counts from the 2010 decennial census, the CCM used by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Alabama in 2001 produced comparable or better results than a basic multi-county ANN LSTM model. Results from ANN models improve when we use single-county models or proxy for a forecaster’s experience and personal judgment with potential economic forecasts. The results indicate the significance of forecaster’s experience/judgment for CCM and the difficulty, but not impossibility, of substituting these insights with available data.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"6 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81151744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:This study addresses how perception of risk of child mortality, land ownership and household type influence fertility preferences. The study focuses on four distinct villages: two vulnerable to cyclones and floods and two not usually subject to the impacts of extreme weather events (EWEs). The study uses a mixed-methods approach in collecting relevant information from 759 randomly selected ever-married women at reproductive age who had at least one child and were living with their husband during the field survey. The descriptive findings demonstrate that fertility preferences vary regarding perceived risk of child death, land ownership and household type, and that the influences of these factors vary for areas vulnerable to EWEs and not vulnerable to EWEs. Binary logistic regression analysis reveals that perceived risk of child death from EWEs and land ownership are the significant covariates in areas vulnerable to EWEs. In contrast, experience with child death, land ownership and household type are the most influential covariates explaining variation in fertility preferences in the areas not vulnerable to EWEs. The findings of the study can inform policy recommendations in terms of effective disaster management programs and family planning initiatives during climate-related events.
{"title":"Is Fertility Preference Related to Perception of the Risk of Child Mortality, Changes in Landholding, and Type of Family? A Comparative Study on Populations Vulnerable and not Vulnerable to Extreme Weather Events in Bangladesh","authors":"S. Haq, Khandaker Jafor Ahmed","doi":"10.1353/prv.2019.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2019.0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:This study addresses how perception of risk of child mortality, land ownership and household type influence fertility preferences. The study focuses on four distinct villages: two vulnerable to cyclones and floods and two not usually subject to the impacts of extreme weather events (EWEs). The study uses a mixed-methods approach in collecting relevant information from 759 randomly selected ever-married women at reproductive age who had at least one child and were living with their husband during the field survey. The descriptive findings demonstrate that fertility preferences vary regarding perceived risk of child death, land ownership and household type, and that the influences of these factors vary for areas vulnerable to EWEs and not vulnerable to EWEs. Binary logistic regression analysis reveals that perceived risk of child death from EWEs and land ownership are the significant covariates in areas vulnerable to EWEs. In contrast, experience with child death, land ownership and household type are the most influential covariates explaining variation in fertility preferences in the areas not vulnerable to EWEs. The findings of the study can inform policy recommendations in terms of effective disaster management programs and family planning initiatives during climate-related events.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89873377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:In this paper, I take advantage of newly available data in the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to document outcomes among individuals with deceased parents. I focus first on minors and find that about 2 million children in the United States have a biological mother or father who is deceased. This is the first direct estimate of the size of the orphan population in the United States. Relative to children with both parents living, these maternal and paternal orphans have less favorable educational and health outcomes but similar levels of economic well-being. I find the Social Security program provides extensive (but not universal) support to the child survivor population, with participation in the program potentially affected by the earnings of deceased parents prior to death and by awareness of benefit eligibility by adult members in the child’s household. Similar to outcomes for child survivors, I find adult respondents who have deceased parents at the time of the SIPP have less favorable educational and health outcomes. In contrast to child survivors, adults with deceased parents – across a wide range of age groups – are more likely to have low levels of economic well-being. I also find, by examining a past legislative change in Social Security student benefits that would have affected several cohorts in the SIPP, that financial resources available to young adult survivors have effects on educational attainment and effects on income much later in life.
{"title":"Parental Mortality and Outcomes among Minor and Adult Children","authors":"D. Weaver","doi":"10.1353/prv.2019.0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2019.0006","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:In this paper, I take advantage of newly available data in the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to document outcomes among individuals with deceased parents. I focus first on minors and find that about 2 million children in the United States have a biological mother or father who is deceased. This is the first direct estimate of the size of the orphan population in the United States. Relative to children with both parents living, these maternal and paternal orphans have less favorable educational and health outcomes but similar levels of economic well-being. I find the Social Security program provides extensive (but not universal) support to the child survivor population, with participation in the program potentially affected by the earnings of deceased parents prior to death and by awareness of benefit eligibility by adult members in the child’s household. Similar to outcomes for child survivors, I find adult respondents who have deceased parents at the time of the SIPP have less favorable educational and health outcomes. In contrast to child survivors, adults with deceased parents – across a wide range of age groups – are more likely to have low levels of economic well-being. I also find, by examining a past legislative change in Social Security student benefits that would have affected several cohorts in the SIPP, that financial resources available to young adult survivors have effects on educational attainment and effects on income much later in life.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"53 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85188201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Infant mortality is an important population health statistic that is often used to make health policy decisions. For a small population, an infant mortality rate is subject to high levels of uncertainty and may not indicate the “underlying” mortality regime affecting the population. This situation leads some agencies to either not report infant mortality for these populations or report infant mortality aggregated over space, time or both. A method is presented for estimating “underlying” infant mortality rates that reflect the intrinsic mortality regimes of small populations. The method is described and illustrated in a case study by estimating IMRs for the 15 counties in California where zero infant deaths are reported at the county level for the period 2009–2011. We know that among these 15 counties there are 50 infant deaths reported at the state level but not for the counties in which they occurred. The method’s validity is tested using a synthetic population in the form of a simulated data set generated from a model life table infant mortality rate, representing Level 23 of the West Family Model Life Table for both sexes. The test indicates that the method is capable of producing estimates that represent underlying rates. In this regard, the method described here may assist in the generation of information about the health status of small populations.
{"title":"Estimating the Underlying Infant Mortality Rates for Small Populations, Including those Reporting Zero Infant Deaths: A Case Study of Counties in California","authors":"D. Swanson, A. Kposowa, Jack D Baker","doi":"10.1353/PRV.2019.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/PRV.2019.0005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Infant mortality is an important population health statistic that is often used to make health policy decisions. For a small population, an infant mortality rate is subject to high levels of uncertainty and may not indicate the “underlying” mortality regime affecting the population. This situation leads some agencies to either not report infant mortality for these populations or report infant mortality aggregated over space, time or both. A method is presented for estimating “underlying” infant mortality rates that reflect the intrinsic mortality regimes of small populations. The method is described and illustrated in a case study by estimating IMRs for the 15 counties in California where zero infant deaths are reported at the county level for the period 2009–2011. We know that among these 15 counties there are 50 infant deaths reported at the state level but not for the counties in which they occurred. The method’s validity is tested using a synthetic population in the form of a simulated data set generated from a model life table infant mortality rate, representing Level 23 of the West Family Model Life Table for both sexes. The test indicates that the method is capable of producing estimates that represent underlying rates. In this regard, the method described here may assist in the generation of information about the health status of small populations.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78482532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Following distinctive trends toward urbanization and suburbanization, spatially heterogeneous demographic dynamics are increasingly reflective of different development trajectories at both urban and metropolitan scales. A comprehensive investigation of population trends along homogeneous cycles of urban expansion–with identification of the most relevant factors of growth and change–is still lacking for several European cities. On this point, the present study investigates spatio-temporal patterns of urban expansion in 174 metropolitan regions of Europe, comparing population trends in inner cities and suburbs during a relatively long-time interval (1950-2000). A mixed (parametric/ non-parametric) statistical approach was developed with the aim to profile the specific socioeconomic context underlying population growth (or decline). A comparative analysis of population trends in inner cities and suburbs allows identification of similarities and differences in urbanization patterns and processes across Europe and contributes to define metropolitan clusters associated with a specific background context. The empirical results of this analysis give a more complete representation of contextual factors of population growth and decline in European cities, outlining the increased demographic polarization in inner cores and suburbs during the earlier phases of urbanization. Evidence for higher heterogeneity and fragmentation of long-term population trends during the late phases of urbanization brings further insights in the debate over the future development of contemporary cities.
{"title":"The (Metropolitan) City Revisited: Long-term Population Trends and Urbanization Patterns in Europe, 1950-2000","authors":"L. Salvati, I. Zambon","doi":"10.1353/PRV.2019.0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/PRV.2019.0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Following distinctive trends toward urbanization and suburbanization, spatially heterogeneous demographic dynamics are increasingly reflective of different development trajectories at both urban and metropolitan scales. A comprehensive investigation of population trends along homogeneous cycles of urban expansion–with identification of the most relevant factors of growth and change–is still lacking for several European cities. On this point, the present study investigates spatio-temporal patterns of urban expansion in 174 metropolitan regions of Europe, comparing population trends in inner cities and suburbs during a relatively long-time interval (1950-2000). A mixed (parametric/ non-parametric) statistical approach was developed with the aim to profile the specific socioeconomic context underlying population growth (or decline). A comparative analysis of population trends in inner cities and suburbs allows identification of similarities and differences in urbanization patterns and processes across Europe and contributes to define metropolitan clusters associated with a specific background context. The empirical results of this analysis give a more complete representation of contextual factors of population growth and decline in European cities, outlining the increased demographic polarization in inner cores and suburbs during the earlier phases of urbanization. Evidence for higher heterogeneity and fragmentation of long-term population trends during the late phases of urbanization brings further insights in the debate over the future development of contemporary cities.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"53 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2019-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78947225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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