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Extending the Latina Paradox: Comparative Findings of Sexually Transmitted Infections among Mexican Origin, Black, and White Birth-Giving Women 拉丁裔悖论的延伸:墨西哥裔、黑人和白人分娩妇女性传播感染的比较研究结果
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-05-21 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2019.0003
M. Obregón
Abstract:This study compares the likelihood of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) present or treated during pregnancy among Mexican origin, non-Hispanic White, and Black birth-giving women. Logistic regression analyses of birth certificate records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), for years 2009–2012, are used to determine the likelihood of presence or treatment of STIs for birth-giving women. Despite Mexican-origin women having the lowest levels of socioeconomic status (SES), as measured by educational attainment, logistic regression results show that the likelihood of presence or treatment of an STI is unexpectedly higher for Whites and Blacks when compared to their Mexican-origin counterparts. The unanticipated results parallel other health advantages commonly found within the ‘Latina paradox literature’. Results show that women who defer their first prenatal visit until the last trimester of pregnancy have the highest odds of having an STI present or treated during pregnancy. The present study suggest that the Latina paradox could be extended via future research on STIs, and supports policies that might improve the maternal health of underserved women who defer their first prenatal visit until the third trimester.
摘要:本研究比较了墨西哥裔、非西班牙裔白人和黑人分娩妇女在怀孕期间出现或接受治疗的性传播感染(sti)的可能性。对2009-2012年国家卫生统计中心(NCHS)的出生证明记录进行了Logistic回归分析,以确定产妇存在性传播感染或接受性传播感染治疗的可能性。尽管以受教育程度衡量,墨西哥裔女性的社会经济地位(SES)水平最低,但逻辑回归结果显示,与墨西哥裔女性相比,白人和黑人出现性传播感染或接受性传播感染治疗的可能性出乎意料地更高。这些意想不到的结果与“拉丁悖论文献”中常见的其他健康优势相似。结果表明,将第一次产前检查推迟到怀孕最后三个月的妇女在怀孕期间感染性传播感染或接受治疗的几率最高。目前的研究表明,可以通过对性传播感染的未来研究来延长拉丁悖论,并支持可能改善服务不足的妇女的孕产妇健康的政策,这些妇女将第一次产前检查推迟到妊娠晚期。
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引用次数: 0
A Principal Component Simulation of Age-Specific Fertility – Impacts of Family and Social Policy on Reproductive Behavior in Germany 特定年龄生育率的主成分模拟——德国家庭和社会政策对生育行为的影响
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-04-23 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2019.0002
Patrizio Vanella, Philipp Deschermeier
Abstract:This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The model accounts for cross-correlation and autocorrelation among the ASFR time series. The effects of certain measures are quantified through the introduction of policy variables. Our approach is applicable to probabilistic sensitivity analyses investigating the potential outcome of political intervention. A slight increase in the TFR is probable until 2040. In the median scenario, the TFR will increase from 1.6 in 2016 to 1.63 in 2040 and will be between 1.34 and 1.93 with a probability of 75% under the most realistic policy scenario. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of the mid-1990s. Four simple alternate scenarios are used to illustrate the estimated ceteris paribus effect of changes in our policy variables on the TFR as well as the results of simple extrapolations.
摘要:本文提出了一种模拟方法,通过对德国年龄特异性生育率(ASFRs)的主成分进行时间序列建模,间接估计德国年龄特异性生育率(ASFRs)和总生育率(TFR)。该模型考虑了ASFR时间序列之间的相互关系和自相关关系。通过引入政策变量来量化某些措施的效果。我们的方法适用于调查政治干预的潜在结果的概率敏感性分析。到2040年,总生育率可能略有上升。在中值情景中,TFR将从2016年的1.6增加到2040年的1.63,在最现实的政策情景下,TFR将在1.34至1.93之间,概率为75%。根据这一结果,生育率不太可能回落到20世纪90年代中期的极低水平。我们使用了四种简单的替代情景来说明政策变量变化对TFR的其他因素影响以及简单外推的结果。
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引用次数: 9
Application of Population Models to the Adjustment of Age and Sex Data from Developing Countries 人口模型在发展中国家年龄和性别数据调整中的应用
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-01-24 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2019.0000
C. Okoro, E. C. Nwogu
Abstract:This paper focuses on the adjustment of reported populations from censuses in developing countries. Reported populations by sex and 5–year age groups in censuses from developing countries are known to be defective and need adjustment before they can be gainfully utilised. We apply methods based on population models to obtain adjusted populations from the reported populations because mathematical methods have been shown to smoothen out genuine features of a study population. In order to assess the success of the adjustment, the adjusted data were subjected to re-evaluation and were used to obtain estimates of some demographic parameters (fertility, mortality, etc). Using the age-sex accuracy index, the results show that quality of the adjusted populations improved substantially in all the censuses and appear much better than results from the mathematical methods. Therefore, we recommend that, where necessary, adjusted data using population models should be used for estimation of demographic parameters and population projections in developing countries.
摘要:本文主要研究发展中国家人口普查报告人口的调整情况。发展中国家按性别和5岁年龄组分列的人口普查报告是有缺陷的,需要进行调整才能有效地加以利用。我们采用基于人口模型的方法从报告的人口中获得调整后的人口,因为数学方法已被证明可以平滑研究人口的真实特征。为了评估调整是否成功,对调整后的数据进行了重新评价,并用来估计一些人口参数(生育率、死亡率等)。使用年龄-性别准确度指数,结果表明,调整后的人口质量在所有人口普查中都有明显提高,比数学方法的结果要好得多。因此,我们建议在必要时使用人口模型调整的数据来估计发展中国家的人口参数和人口预测。
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引用次数: 3
China's Extraordinary Population Expansion and Its Determinants during the Qing Period, 1644-1911 清朝时期中国人口的异常增长及其决定因素(1644-1911)
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2019-01-16 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2019.0001
K. Deng, Shengmin Sun
Abstract:It has long been puzzled why and how China's population was able to multiply four-fold from circa 1750 to 1850. Descriptions/explanations as well as reservations/suspicions vary widely and the debate can be energetic and uncompromising at the same time. This research aims to settle some aspects of the debate both qualitatively by looking at the interplay between China's resource endowments (e.g. farmland), technology (new crops), institutions (landownership, aided migration, disaster relief and so forth) and exogenous shocks (wars and natural disasters) on the one hand, and quantitatively by deploying empirical test on correlations between populations growth and factors that influenced that growth. Our key findings indicate that China's demographic upsurge during the Qing Period (1644-1911) was achieved with a synergy of positive factors and mainly by the non-market sector.
摘要:从1750年到1850年,中国人口增长了四倍,其原因和方式一直令人困惑。描述/解释以及保留/怀疑差异很大,辩论可以同时充满活力和不妥协。本研究旨在定性地解决争论的某些方面,一方面通过观察中国的资源禀赋(如农田)、技术(新作物)、制度(土地所有权、援助移民、救灾等)和外生冲击(战争和自然灾害)之间的相互作用,一方面通过对人口增长与影响人口增长的因素之间的相关性进行实证检验。我们的主要研究结果表明,清朝(1644-1911)中国的人口激增是在积极因素的协同作用下实现的,主要是非市场部门。
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引用次数: 0
Knowledge and Usage of Emergency Contraceptives among University Students in Ghana 加纳大学生紧急避孕药的知识和使用情况
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2018-12-05 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2018.0007
E. Osei-Tutu, A. Aryeh-Adjei, E. Ampadu
Abstract:This study examines the knowledge and usage of emergency contraceptives (ECs) among university students in the Republic of Ghana. Data from 1,871 students at the University of Ghana were collected using a structured questionnaire. The results show that the majority (87.9 percent) of students were aware of some regular contraceptives and ECs. Results also reveal that despite the knowledge of these contraceptives among students, the majority (70.4 percent) had never used a contraceptive. The authors recommend that the university should use social media to facilitate student awareness and knowledge of contraceptives, including ECs.
摘要:本研究调查了加纳共和国大学生对紧急避孕药的知识和使用情况。使用结构化问卷收集了来自加纳大学1871名学生的数据。结果显示,大多数(87.9%)的学生知道一些常规避孕药具和ec。结果还显示,尽管学生了解这些避孕措施,但大多数(70.4%)从未使用过避孕措施。作者建议大学应该利用社交媒体来促进学生对避孕药具的认识和了解,包括ec。
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引用次数: 2
Revealing Gender Gap Changes in Home Production and Labor Income in Uruguay 揭示乌拉圭家庭生产和劳动收入的性别差异变化
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2021.0000
Marisa Bucheli, Cecilia Lara
Abstract:A vast international literature has provided evidence on the key role of women in household activities as well as a long-term trend of time reallocation toward a more egalitarian gender division of work. Our objective is to study the changes in gender gaps in home production and the labor market in Uruguay between 2006 and 2013. Our main conclusions are: i) the gender gaps for time spent in the labor market and home production decreased; ii) women increased their time allocated to the labor market and slightly reduced the time spent on home production, whereas the opposite is observable for men; iii) both women and men increased the time allocated to childcare, which resulted in a stable gender gap; iv) both women and men decreased the time spent on other household activities, narrowing the gender gap; and v) this less unequal division of time is also apparent when the gender gaps are measured in monetary terms, although the movement in home production prices did not contribute to reducing the gender gaps.
摘要:大量的国际文献已经提供了证据,证明妇女在家庭活动中的关键作用,以及时间重新分配的长期趋势,朝着更平等的性别分工。我们的目标是研究2006年至2013年间乌拉圭家庭生产和劳动力市场的性别差距变化。我们的主要结论是:1)劳动力市场和家庭生产时间的性别差距缩小;Ii)女性增加了分配给劳动力市场的时间,略微减少了用于家庭生产的时间,而男性的情况正好相反;女性和男性都增加了分配给儿童保育的时间,这导致了稳定的性别差距;女性和男性都减少了花在其他家庭活动上的时间,缩小了性别差距;当用货币来衡量性别差距时,这种时间分配的不平等程度也很明显,尽管房屋生产价格的变动并没有有助于缩小性别差距。
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引用次数: 1
Urban Slums and Fertility Rate Differentials 城市贫民窟和生育率差异
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2018.0006
S. Hassan, Ron Mahabir
Abstract:Over the last 50 years, least developed countries have experienced dramatic population growth due to high fertility rates and poor economic conditions within these countries. In order to tackle this issue, many least developed countries have made remarkable strides to lower their fertility rates. However, while for some countries fertility rates have been on the decline, for other countries such as those in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), their fertility rates are still among the highest in the world. Such variations in fertility rates have led to many studies on this issue. However, the possible role of populations with typical high fertility rates, such as those in slums, have been given much less attention. This paper investigates the role of growing slums as a moderating factor that could possibly contribute to explaining the reasons behind the failure of some regions, such as MENA and SSA, to bring down fertility rates to a satisfactory level. Our panel fixed effects and two-stage least square results of 72 developing countries during the period 1990-2014 support the positive effect of slums on fertility rate after controlling for endogeneity, country and time fixed effects, as well other drivers of fertility.
摘要:在过去的50年里,由于生育率高和经济条件差,最不发达国家经历了急剧的人口增长。为了解决这一问题,许多最不发达国家在降低生育率方面取得了显著进展。然而,虽然一些国家的生育率一直在下降,但对于中东和北非(MENA)和撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)等其他国家来说,它们的生育率仍然是世界上最高的。生育率的这种差异导致了对这个问题的许多研究。但是,典型的高生育率人口,例如贫民窟人口可能发挥的作用却很少得到注意。本文调查了日益增长的贫民窟作为一个调节因素的作用,这可能有助于解释一些地区(如中东和北非地区和南撒哈拉地区)未能将生育率降至令人满意的水平背后的原因。我们在1990-2014年间对72个发展中国家的面板固定效应和两阶段最小二乘结果支持在控制了内生性、国家和时间固定效应以及其他生育率驱动因素后,贫民窟对生育率的积极影响。
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引用次数: 3
Does Residential Mobility Anticipate Urban Growth? The Importance of the Local Socioeconomic Context in a European Metropolitan Region 居民流动性是否预示着城市的发展?欧洲大都市地区当地社会经济背景的重要性
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2018-08-31 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2018.0005
L. Salvati, I. Zambon
Abstract:Urban growth at different spatial scales is analysed using the assumptions that large cities have experienced sequential cycles of urbanization, suburbanization and re-urbanization that reflect complex demographic dynamics. Original approaches, quantitative methodologies and indicators are employed to support analysis of urban growth at different spatial scales. Residential mobility is considered as a proxy measure for spatial dynamics, intensity of urban expansion and socioeconomic development at local and regional scales in Mediterranean Europe. By computing the percent share of the population living in the same municipality five years before the census date in the total resident population at the census date, a spatial analysis of residential mobility and related background context allowed for the identification of specific urban cycles, outlining heterogeneous patterns of growth in the metropolitan region of Athens, Greece, over the last three decades (1981–2011). Results indicate that changes in spatial patterns of residential mobility are associated with multiple factors (directly or indirectly), dependent on demographic dynamics and economic cycles exposing (apparent or latent) variability in the socio-spatial urban structure and functional re-organization processes across larger metropolitan areas. Multiple socioeconomic transitions are identified in the study area, with short-range population movements diverging with urbanization, suburbanization and re-urbanization. Under both economic expansion and recession, spatial patterns of residential mobility reflect differential population dynamics, whose knowledge provides innovative visions for future urban cycles in Europe.
摘要:本文假设大城市经历了城市化、郊区化和再城市化的连续周期,反映了复杂的人口动态,分析了不同空间尺度下的城市增长。本文采用原始的方法、定量方法和指标来支持不同空间尺度下的城市增长分析。居住流动性被认为是衡量地中海欧洲地方和区域尺度上的空间动态、城市扩张强度和社会经济发展的代理指标。通过计算人口普查日期前五年居住在同一城市的人口占人口普查日期总常住人口的百分比,住宅流动性和相关背景的空间分析允许识别特定的城市周期,概述了过去三十年(1981-2011)希腊雅典大都市地区的异质增长模式。结果表明,居住流动性空间格局的变化与多种因素(直接或间接)相关,取决于人口动态和经济周期,这些因素暴露了(明显或潜在)大都市地区社会空间城市结构和功能重组过程的变异性。研究区存在多重社会经济转型,短期人口流动呈现城市化、郊区化和再城市化的分化趋势。无论是在经济扩张还是衰退的情况下,居住流动性的空间格局都反映了人口动态的差异,这为欧洲未来的城市周期提供了创新的视角。
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引用次数: 3
A Bimodal Pattern in Age at First Birth in Southern Cone Countries? 南锥国家头胎年龄的双峰模式?
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2018-07-14 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2018.0004
Ignacio Pardo, W. Cabella
Abstract:Recent evidence confirms that the postponement transition has begun in some Latin American countries. As the mean age at first birth increases, dispersion around the mean value might also increase, reflecting a growing heterogeneity in the timing of transition to motherhood. In fact, in countries from the Southern Cone, recently available data suggest the emergence of a specific pattern that not only reflects heterogeneity, but also a polarization around two "crests;" the first one at the end of adolescence and the second one toward the end of the twenties. Using census data, vital statistics and household surveys from three countries, we study the extent to which this process consolidates a recognizable pattern in the timing of first birth in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay, visible through age-specific conditional rates of first births.
摘要:最近的证据证实,推迟转型已经在一些拉美国家开始。随着首次生育平均年龄的增加,平均值周围的离散度也可能增加,这反映了向母亲过渡时间的异质性越来越大。事实上,在南锥体国家,最近可获得的数据表明,出现了一种特殊的模式,不仅反映了异质性,而且围绕两个“高峰”出现了两极分化;第一个高峰是在青春期结束时,第二个高峰是在20多岁结束时。利用来自三个国家的人口普查数据、人口动态统计数据和家庭调查,我们研究了阿根廷、智利和乌拉圭这一过程在多大程度上巩固了一种可识别的首次生育时间模式,这可以通过特定年龄的首次生育条件率看出。
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引用次数: 8
Proportional Weighting Algorithm for Single-Race Population Estimation Using Multiracial Census Data 基于多种族人口普查数据的单种族人口估计比例加权算法
IF 0.7 Q4 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2018-05-03 DOI: 10.1353/PRV.2018.0003
H. Ahn, John J. Chen
Abstract:A new proportional weighting algorithm is proposed to bridge multiple-race counts to single-race estimates based on 2010 Decennial Census data. The proposed weighting method is based on Census data alone with traceable procedure and reproducible results. It enables researchers to estimate population size of any race category of interest at any level of granularity stratified by other demographic information available in the Census data. If researchers have specific criteria or priorities for classifying certain races, the proposed algorithm can be easily modified to meet their specific needs. The new algorithm provides an intuitive and straightforward alternative for determining single-race population estimates. As an illustration of this approach, we provide the population estimates of the five most populous ethnic groups in Hawaii using the 2010 Census data.
摘要:基于2010年人口普查数据,提出了一种新的比例加权算法,将多种族统计与单种族估计相结合。所提出的加权方法仅基于人口普查数据,具有可追溯的程序和可重复的结果。它使研究人员能够根据人口普查数据中可用的其他人口统计信息,在任何粒度水平上估计任何种族类别的人口规模。如果研究人员对某些种族有特定的分类标准或优先级,那么所提出的算法可以很容易地修改以满足他们的特定需求。新算法为确定单种族人口估计提供了一种直观、直接的替代方法。为了说明这种方法,我们使用2010年人口普查数据提供了夏威夷人口最多的五个民族的人口估计。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Population Review
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