Pub Date : 2016-02-02DOI: 10.1353/prv.2016.a611203
James Lachaud, T. Legrand, Jean-François Kobiané
Questions continue to arise about the benefits and challenges of child fostering on children’s human capital, particularly in West Africa. For technical and operational purposes, empirical studies have generally considered fostered children as a homogeneous group, despite the well-examined complexity of this matter. This paper aims to provide a more insightful view of the potential effects of child fostering on educational outcomes in the capital city of Ouagadougou, in Burkina Faso. Beyond the comparison of children who have been fostered in the past to their own siblings, this paper analyzes the heterogeneity of child fostering by considering such factors as sex, and the kinship relationship between the foster household head and the child’s biological mother. Probit models are used with interaction terms. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the consistency of our results. The results show that a negative effect of child fostering remains, but girls who were fostered after 10 years of age appear to be most disadvantaged compared with their peers after controlling for all other factors.
{"title":"Child Fostering and Children’s Human Capital in Ouagadougou","authors":"James Lachaud, T. Legrand, Jean-François Kobiané","doi":"10.1353/prv.2016.a611203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2016.a611203","url":null,"abstract":"Questions continue to arise about the benefits and challenges of child fostering on children’s human capital, particularly in West Africa. For technical and operational purposes, empirical studies have generally considered fostered children as a homogeneous group, despite the well-examined complexity of this matter. This paper aims to provide a more insightful view of the potential effects of child fostering on educational outcomes in the capital city of Ouagadougou, in Burkina Faso. Beyond the comparison of children who have been fostered in the past to their own siblings, this paper analyzes the heterogeneity of child fostering by considering such factors as sex, and the kinship relationship between the foster household head and the child’s biological mother. Probit models are used with interaction terms. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the consistency of our results. The results show that a negative effect of child fostering remains, but girls who were fostered after 10 years of age appear to be most disadvantaged compared with their peers after controlling for all other factors.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"337 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2016-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82940930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aris Ananta, Dwi Retno Wilujeng Wahyu Utami, Ari Purbowati
Indonesia is undergoing a third demographic transition that features changes in ethnic composition. We examine quantitatively the extent and change of dominance of the Javanese, who have experienced below replacement fertility. As used herein, an ethnic group is said to be dominant if it is the largest ethnic group and its percentage is at least twice the percentage of the second largest ethnic group. The Javanese are the largest, most ubiquitous and politically important ethnic group in Indonesia. This quantitative analysis addresses the ethnic dominance and cultural hegemony literature. We question the ubiquity of the Javanese – who represent the process of Javanization – because Indonesia’s Javanese character/culture may be eroding. We find that among the Javanese living outside their three home provinces, the percentage of those who speak Javanese daily at home is very low. These Javanese may have adapted to local conditions. We also find that the Javanese are not always the dominant or even the largest ethnic group. In most of the districts, they comprise a very small minority ethnic group. An important finding is that the “third demographic transition” has been and continues to be occurring in Indonesia, a large developing country. Our findings expand the original concept of what constitutes a third demographic transition, which has been applied previously only to developed countries. We conclude that the Javanese are still dominant, but their dominance has declined, and that a third demographic transition is taking place in Indonesia.
{"title":"Declining Dominance of an Ethnic Group in a Large Multi-ethnic Developing Country: The Case of the Javanese in Indonesia","authors":"Aris Ananta, Dwi Retno Wilujeng Wahyu Utami, Ari Purbowati","doi":"10.1353/PRV.2016.0000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/PRV.2016.0000","url":null,"abstract":"Indonesia is undergoing a third demographic transition that features changes in ethnic composition. We examine quantitatively the extent and change of dominance of the Javanese, who have experienced below replacement fertility. As used herein, an ethnic group is said to be dominant if it is the largest ethnic group and its percentage is at least twice the percentage of the second largest ethnic group. The Javanese are the largest, most ubiquitous and politically important ethnic group in Indonesia. This quantitative analysis addresses the ethnic dominance and cultural hegemony literature. We question the ubiquity of the Javanese – who represent the process of Javanization – because Indonesia’s Javanese character/culture may be eroding. We find that among the Javanese living outside their three home provinces, the percentage of those who speak Javanese daily at home is very low. These Javanese may have adapted to local conditions. We also find that the Javanese are not always the dominant or even the largest ethnic group. In most of the districts, they comprise a very small minority ethnic group. An important finding is that the “third demographic transition” has been and continues to be occurring in Indonesia, a large developing country. Our findings expand the original concept of what constitutes a third demographic transition, which has been applied previously only to developed countries. We conclude that the Javanese are still dominant, but their dominance has declined, and that a third demographic transition is taking place in Indonesia.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"8 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2016-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86888020","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-06-24DOI: 10.1353/prv.2015.a595916
Lise Thibodeau
A key component of demographic analysis is the cohort. Cohort-related factors might play a role in the strong net cohort effect reported for male baby boomers (born 1946–1966) in Canada, who have committed suicide at an unusually high rate. This study examines the impact of relative cohort size on suicide mortality in Canada and compares this effect in the province of Quebec to the effect observed in the rest of Canada and tests concurrent demographic theories of Easterlin and Preston. A Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Cross-Classified Random Effect Model (HAPC-CCREM) was used to assess the impacts of interest. The results in Canada support Easterlin’s paradigm: large cohorts commit suicide at higher rates than small cohorts. However, the relationship appears to be specific to males, as female cohort sizes do not have significant effects on suicide mortality rates. Our findings also suggest that the effect of relative cohort size on suicide mortality is significantly greater for males in Quebec than for males in the rest of Canada.
{"title":"Cohort Size and Suicide Mortality in Canada: An Assessment of the Easterlin and Preston Theories in the GI through the Y Generations","authors":"Lise Thibodeau","doi":"10.1353/prv.2015.a595916","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2015.a595916","url":null,"abstract":"A key component of demographic analysis is the cohort. Cohort-related factors might play a role in the strong net cohort effect reported for male baby boomers (born 1946–1966) in Canada, who have committed suicide at an unusually high rate. This study examines the impact of relative cohort size on suicide mortality in Canada and compares this effect in the province of Quebec to the effect observed in the rest of Canada and tests concurrent demographic theories of Easterlin and Preston. A Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort Cross-Classified Random Effect Model (HAPC-CCREM) was used to assess the impacts of interest. The results in Canada support Easterlin’s paradigm: large cohorts commit suicide at higher rates than small cohorts. However, the relationship appears to be specific to males, as female cohort sizes do not have significant effects on suicide mortality rates. Our findings also suggest that the effect of relative cohort size on suicide mortality is significantly greater for males in Quebec than for males in the rest of Canada.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"33 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82183772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-06-24DOI: 10.1353/prv.2015.a591657
Bei Lu, Xiaoting Liu, J. Piggott
Long-term care (LTC) policy in China is in its infancy, and it is highly decentralised. Where policy structures exist, they are poorly resourced. Although China’s demography is still young by developed country standards, it is ageing very rapidly, and by mid-century will have “caught up” with many countries in the developed world with respect to population ageing. LTC policy development, therefore, is becoming a priority in China. We argue that it should be formulated with population ageing as a framework. Policy designs, which take account of and encourage, informal care provision, will be critical to the fiscally sustainable delivery of LTC. In China, informal care is sometimes seen as very scarce because of the one child policy. With only one child, it is argued, there will be less informal care offered than in societies with larger families. This paper uses the recently developed China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) dataset to analyse the current patterns of disability and informal care availability. In particular, and contrary to expectation, we find that fertility change is not the main driver for reducing informal care. Education levels, living standards, urbanization and co-residency are much more important. This suggests that current policy, which targets those with one child families, may be misguided, and also that mechanical extrapolations of future demand for care may be misleading.
{"title":"Informal Long Term Care in China and Population Ageing: Evidence and Policy Implications","authors":"Bei Lu, Xiaoting Liu, J. Piggott","doi":"10.1353/prv.2015.a591657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2015.a591657","url":null,"abstract":"Long-term care (LTC) policy in China is in its infancy, and it is highly decentralised. Where policy structures exist, they are poorly resourced. Although China’s demography is still young by developed country standards, it is ageing very rapidly, and by mid-century will have “caught up” with many countries in the developed world with respect to population ageing. LTC policy development, therefore, is becoming a priority in China. We argue that it should be formulated with population ageing as a framework. Policy designs, which take account of and encourage, informal care provision, will be critical to the fiscally sustainable delivery of LTC. In China, informal care is sometimes seen as very scarce because of the one child policy. With only one child, it is argued, there will be less informal care offered than in societies with larger families. This paper uses the recently developed China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) dataset to analyse the current patterns of disability and informal care availability. In particular, and contrary to expectation, we find that fertility change is not the main driver for reducing informal care. Education levels, living standards, urbanization and co-residency are much more important. This suggests that current policy, which targets those with one child families, may be misguided, and also that mechanical extrapolations of future demand for care may be misleading.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"11 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78700427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-06-24DOI: 10.1353/prv.2015.a587684
Bruce J. Chapman, P. Clarke, T. Higgins, M. Stewart
The purpose of this study is to explore income contingent loans as a mechanism for collecting a “Brain Drain Tax” as proposed by Bhagwati. As originally proposed, developing countries would receive taxes levied on emigrants from developing countries to recompense them for the losses imposed by the brain drain. Income continent loans provide a potential method of collection as a notional debt could be imposed at the time of immigration and paid off over time though income tax levies. Using Australia as a case study, we explore the potential revenue that would be collected through the Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS) from a notional debt of $5000 (Australian) per skilled immigrant. Using census data we estimate around 25,000 skill immigrants per year would incur a notional HECS debit of $125 million (Australian) with around half being repaid under current income threshold arrangements. Extending the tax to unskilled migrants would more than double the revenue. The study finally highlights several administrative and legal issues that would need to be resolved, including options for remitting funds back to developing countries.
{"title":"Income Contingent Collection of a ‘Brain Drain Tax’: Theory, Policy and Empirical Potential","authors":"Bruce J. Chapman, P. Clarke, T. Higgins, M. Stewart","doi":"10.1353/prv.2015.a587684","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2015.a587684","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to explore income contingent loans as a mechanism for collecting a “Brain Drain Tax” as proposed by Bhagwati. As originally proposed, developing countries would receive taxes levied on emigrants from developing countries to recompense them for the losses imposed by the brain drain. Income continent loans provide a potential method of collection as a notional debt could be imposed at the time of immigration and paid off over time though income tax levies. Using Australia as a case study, we explore the potential revenue that would be collected through the Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS) from a notional debt of $5000 (Australian) per skilled immigrant. Using census data we estimate around 25,000 skill immigrants per year would incur a notional HECS debit of $125 million (Australian) with around half being repaid under current income threshold arrangements. Extending the tax to unskilled migrants would more than double the revenue. The study finally highlights several administrative and legal issues that would need to be resolved, including options for remitting funds back to developing countries.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"96 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74970578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper describes the evolution of migration policy in Australia from the 1950s onwards. It focuses in particular on the period after 1995 when the Australian Government concentrated its migration program on skilled immigrants, both permanent and temporary. While conceived as separate programs, over time, the permanent and temporary movements have been merged so that most new permanent skilled immigrants make an application on shore while holding a temporary resident visa. This approach seems to have served Australia well in a time of strong labour demand and a dwindling domestic supply of labour. Australia’s international program will be important in the future as it slows the pace of population ageing and provides necessary skills to an otherwise static labour force.
{"title":"International Migration and Employment in Australia","authors":"P. McDonald","doi":"10.1353/PRV.2015.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/PRV.2015.0005","url":null,"abstract":"The paper describes the evolution of migration policy in Australia from the 1950s onwards. It focuses in particular on the period after 1995 when the Australian Government concentrated its migration program on skilled immigrants, both permanent and temporary. While conceived as separate programs, over time, the permanent and temporary movements have been merged so that most new permanent skilled immigrants make an application on shore while holding a temporary resident visa. This approach seems to have served Australia well in a time of strong labour demand and a dwindling domestic supply of labour. Australia’s international program will be important in the future as it slows the pace of population ageing and provides necessary skills to an otherwise static labour force.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"14 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84096701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-06-24DOI: 10.1353/prv.2015.a591783
B. Chapman, Kiatanantha Lounkaew, J. Piggott
{"title":"Introduction to Special Collection Six on the Labour Market, Migration and Ageing","authors":"B. Chapman, Kiatanantha Lounkaew, J. Piggott","doi":"10.1353/prv.2015.a591783","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2015.a591783","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"11 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85432349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-01-14DOI: 10.1353/prv.2015.a584406
Titikarn Assatarakul
This article examines the correlates of older Thais’ engagement in socio-economic activities, which include paid and unpaid work. The data, derived from the 2011 National Survey of Older Persons in Thailand (N=16,373), show that only 7.2 per cent of the elderly did not participate in any socio-economic activity. Findings from Poisson regression analysis show that older Thais engagement in socio-economic activities is correlated with socio-demographic characteristics, health status, motivation and intergenerational solidarity within the family.
{"title":"Socio-Economic Activities of the Elderly in Thailand","authors":"Titikarn Assatarakul","doi":"10.1353/prv.2015.a584406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2015.a584406","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the correlates of older Thais’ engagement in socio-economic activities, which include paid and unpaid work. The data, derived from the 2011 National Survey of Older Persons in Thailand (N=16,373), show that only 7.2 per cent of the elderly did not participate in any socio-economic activity. Findings from Poisson regression analysis show that older Thais engagement in socio-economic activities is correlated with socio-demographic characteristics, health status, motivation and intergenerational solidarity within the family.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"50 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86136703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Does economic development benefit ordinary people in poor nations? Two authoritative surveys (N=89,811 and 84,389) in Brazil, a prototypical example, suggest that it increases the pay of all occupational groups, prosperous and poor, in roughly equal proportion, by about 3% a year. Most of this gain is due to compositional changes, especially the increase in educational levels; to more advantageous family background; and to migration to more prosperous regions within Brazil. The remainder, a growth of 1% to 2% per year, reflects the benefits of economic development per se. Development raises women’s pay in equal proportion to men’s.
{"title":"Who Benefits from Economic Growth?: Work and Pay in Brazil, 1973–1988","authors":"Jonathan Kelley, A. Haller","doi":"10.1353/PRV.2015.0000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/PRV.2015.0000","url":null,"abstract":"Does economic development benefit ordinary people in poor nations? Two authoritative surveys (N=89,811 and 84,389) in Brazil, a prototypical example, suggest that it increases the pay of all occupational groups, prosperous and poor, in roughly equal proportion, by about 3% a year. Most of this gain is due to compositional changes, especially the increase in educational levels; to more advantageous family background; and to migration to more prosperous regions within Brazil. The remainder, a growth of 1% to 2% per year, reflects the benefits of economic development per se. Development raises women’s pay in equal proportion to men’s.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"30 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84766326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-01-14DOI: 10.1353/prv.2015.a582900
N. Weller
Is there a significant difference in the rates of a first visit for infertility services between nulliparous women and parous women? Applying statistical models common to fertility studies, this research uses discrete-time event history models to estimate the hazard of a first visit for infertility treatment across two groups of women based on their parity status. Parity status for this study is dichotomized into nulliparous women and parous women. Using retrospective data from the National Survey of Family Growth about the month and year of the first visit for infertility treatment as well as pregnancy histories from female respondents, results indicate that nulliparous women are 38% more likely to have a first visit for infertility compared to parous women. The higher rates of nulliparous women who seek infertility treatment compared to parous women are incongruent with self-reported fertility expectations among women to have at least two children. This study provides insight into why parity status influences the rates of seeking infertility assistance in spite of fertility expectations.
{"title":"Comparing Rates of a First Visit for Infertility Services by Parity Status","authors":"N. Weller","doi":"10.1353/prv.2015.a582900","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/prv.2015.a582900","url":null,"abstract":"Is there a significant difference in the rates of a first visit for infertility services between nulliparous women and parous women? Applying statistical models common to fertility studies, this research uses discrete-time event history models to estimate the hazard of a first visit for infertility treatment across two groups of women based on their parity status. Parity status for this study is dichotomized into nulliparous women and parous women. Using retrospective data from the National Survey of Family Growth about the month and year of the first visit for infertility treatment as well as pregnancy histories from female respondents, results indicate that nulliparous women are 38% more likely to have a first visit for infertility compared to parous women. The higher rates of nulliparous women who seek infertility treatment compared to parous women are incongruent with self-reported fertility expectations among women to have at least two children. This study provides insight into why parity status influences the rates of seeking infertility assistance in spite of fertility expectations.","PeriodicalId":43131,"journal":{"name":"Population Review","volume":"22 1","pages":"-"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2015-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90356732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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