Pub Date : 2023-07-18DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ace3e9
Nina Berlin Rubin, Erica R. Bower, Natalie Herbert, Bianca S Santos, G. Wong‐Parodi
Climate change poses a growing threat to the lives and livelihoods of more than three billion people living in highly vulnerable areas. Despite recent financing designated for climate adaptation, current support is only a fraction of what is needed and lags behind the accelerating pace of climate impacts. To achieve equitable and sustainable adaptation, we propose four evidence-based guidelines for funding and developing adaptation projects: uphold community autonomy, be transformative, avoid maladaptation, and integrate across sectors. Upholding community autonomy prioritizes bottom-up approaches that support local engagement and decision-making. Being transformative involves funding nonlinear proposals and developing novel funding mechanisms in order to shift away from incremental change. Avoiding maladaptation means ensuring that adaptation projects are proactive, flexible, and supportive of natural ecosystem services to prevent increasing vulnerability and exposure to climate impacts. Integrating across sectors involves addressing the intersections between human and environmental systems and using multiple sources of knowledge when developing projects. We illustrate these guidelines in action by exploring these principles in the context of adaptation to coastal hazards. By adopting these guidelines, funding for climate adaptation can support frontline communities facing the most severe consequences of climate change and address some of the underlying conditions that contribute to vulnerability, delivering broader societal benefits.
{"title":"Centering equity and sustainability in climate adaptation funding","authors":"Nina Berlin Rubin, Erica R. Bower, Natalie Herbert, Bianca S Santos, G. Wong‐Parodi","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/ace3e9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace3e9","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change poses a growing threat to the lives and livelihoods of more than three billion people living in highly vulnerable areas. Despite recent financing designated for climate adaptation, current support is only a fraction of what is needed and lags behind the accelerating pace of climate impacts. To achieve equitable and sustainable adaptation, we propose four evidence-based guidelines for funding and developing adaptation projects: uphold community autonomy, be transformative, avoid maladaptation, and integrate across sectors. Upholding community autonomy prioritizes bottom-up approaches that support local engagement and decision-making. Being transformative involves funding nonlinear proposals and developing novel funding mechanisms in order to shift away from incremental change. Avoiding maladaptation means ensuring that adaptation projects are proactive, flexible, and supportive of natural ecosystem services to prevent increasing vulnerability and exposure to climate impacts. Integrating across sectors involves addressing the intersections between human and environmental systems and using multiple sources of knowledge when developing projects. We illustrate these guidelines in action by exploring these principles in the context of adaptation to coastal hazards. By adopting these guidelines, funding for climate adaptation can support frontline communities facing the most severe consequences of climate change and address some of the underlying conditions that contribute to vulnerability, delivering broader societal benefits.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134496730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-12DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ace6c6
R. R. De León, David S. Lee
Recent studies on low aromatic fuels have shown that lower soot number emissions may reduce contrail ice particle number concentrations (N ice). Here we implemented, in a sophisticated radiative transfer model, two ice particle size distribution schemes in order to estimate the contrail radiative forcing’s (RFs) dependence on these prospective N ice reductions resulting from the introduction of sustainable aviation fuels. The results show that an 85% contrail N ice reduction produces a 35% smaller contrail RF, while neglecting all non-radiative effects. This estimate of an RF reduction only considers the effects of the N ice change assumed here, and neglects other potentially important microphysical mechanisms that may change the relationship between soot number emissions and N ice. A comparison of our results with previous published estimates from full climate model simulations, shows similar RF reductions to those which also take into account non-radiative mechanisms, evidencing the need for more studies in order to allocate the contribution from radiative and non-radiative changes, as this would guide possible mitigation implementations. Despite these modeled contrail RF reductions being largely independent of the assumed ice water content (IWC), it is only through simultaneous improvement of the IWC and N ice representation in models that contrail RF estimates can be better constrained. This is because our calculated RF varied by a factor of 3 when assuming a ±30% IWC range; and by a factor of 5 if a, still conservative, ±60% IWC range was prescribed, suggesting that the differences in the prescribed IWC and N ice values in different models may explain the large discrepancies amongst published RF estimates. Recent estimates of higher N ice values, and lower IWCs found in contrails even after several hours, compared to surrounding cirrus under similar atmospheric conditions, were assessed to conclude that it is mainly the differences in IWC that make young contrails have a smaller RF, and to reduce our previous estimate for linear contrail RF for year 2006 by 65%.
{"title":"Contrail radiative dependence on ice particle number concentration","authors":"R. R. De León, David S. Lee","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/ace6c6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace6c6","url":null,"abstract":"Recent studies on low aromatic fuels have shown that lower soot number emissions may reduce contrail ice particle number concentrations (N ice). Here we implemented, in a sophisticated radiative transfer model, two ice particle size distribution schemes in order to estimate the contrail radiative forcing’s (RFs) dependence on these prospective N ice reductions resulting from the introduction of sustainable aviation fuels. The results show that an 85% contrail N ice reduction produces a 35% smaller contrail RF, while neglecting all non-radiative effects. This estimate of an RF reduction only considers the effects of the N ice change assumed here, and neglects other potentially important microphysical mechanisms that may change the relationship between soot number emissions and N ice. A comparison of our results with previous published estimates from full climate model simulations, shows similar RF reductions to those which also take into account non-radiative mechanisms, evidencing the need for more studies in order to allocate the contribution from radiative and non-radiative changes, as this would guide possible mitigation implementations. Despite these modeled contrail RF reductions being largely independent of the assumed ice water content (IWC), it is only through simultaneous improvement of the IWC and N ice representation in models that contrail RF estimates can be better constrained. This is because our calculated RF varied by a factor of 3 when assuming a ±30% IWC range; and by a factor of 5 if a, still conservative, ±60% IWC range was prescribed, suggesting that the differences in the prescribed IWC and N ice values in different models may explain the large discrepancies amongst published RF estimates. Recent estimates of higher N ice values, and lower IWCs found in contrails even after several hours, compared to surrounding cirrus under similar atmospheric conditions, were assessed to conclude that it is mainly the differences in IWC that make young contrails have a smaller RF, and to reduce our previous estimate for linear contrail RF for year 2006 by 65%.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129884949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-11DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ace211
Tyler P. Janoski, M. Previdi, G. Chiodo, Karen L. Smith, L. Polvani
Arctic amplification (AA), defined as the enhanced warming of the Arctic compared to the global average, is a robust feature of historical observations and simulations of future climate. Despite many studies investigating AA mechanisms, their relative importance remains contested. In this study, we examine the different timescales of these mechanisms to improve our understanding of AA’s fundamental causes. We use the Community Earth System Model v1, Large Ensemble configuration (CESM-LE), to generate large ensembles of 2 years simulations subjected to an instantaneous quadrupling of CO2. We show that AA emerges almost immediately (within days) following CO2 increase and before any significant loss of Arctic sea ice has occurred. Through a detailed energy budget analysis of the atmospheric column, we determine the time-varying contributions of AA mechanisms over the simulation period. Additionally, we examine the dependence of these mechanisms on the season of CO2 quadrupling. We find that the surface heat uptake resulting from the different latent heat flux anomalies between the Arctic and global average, driven by the CO2 forcing, is the most important AA contributor on short (<1 month) timescales when CO2 is increased in January, followed by the lapse rate feedback. The latent heat flux anomaly remains the dominant AA mechanism when CO2 is increased in July and is joined by the surface albedo feedback, although AA takes longer to develop. Other feedbacks and energy transports become relevant on longer (>1 month) timescales. Our results confirm that AA is an inherently fast atmospheric response to radiative forcing and reveal a new AA mechanism.
{"title":"Ultrafast Arctic amplification and its governing mechanisms","authors":"Tyler P. Janoski, M. Previdi, G. Chiodo, Karen L. Smith, L. Polvani","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/ace211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace211","url":null,"abstract":"Arctic amplification (AA), defined as the enhanced warming of the Arctic compared to the global average, is a robust feature of historical observations and simulations of future climate. Despite many studies investigating AA mechanisms, their relative importance remains contested. In this study, we examine the different timescales of these mechanisms to improve our understanding of AA’s fundamental causes. We use the Community Earth System Model v1, Large Ensemble configuration (CESM-LE), to generate large ensembles of 2 years simulations subjected to an instantaneous quadrupling of CO2. We show that AA emerges almost immediately (within days) following CO2 increase and before any significant loss of Arctic sea ice has occurred. Through a detailed energy budget analysis of the atmospheric column, we determine the time-varying contributions of AA mechanisms over the simulation period. Additionally, we examine the dependence of these mechanisms on the season of CO2 quadrupling. We find that the surface heat uptake resulting from the different latent heat flux anomalies between the Arctic and global average, driven by the CO2 forcing, is the most important AA contributor on short (<1 month) timescales when CO2 is increased in January, followed by the lapse rate feedback. The latent heat flux anomaly remains the dominant AA mechanism when CO2 is increased in July and is joined by the surface albedo feedback, although AA takes longer to develop. Other feedbacks and energy transports become relevant on longer (>1 month) timescales. Our results confirm that AA is an inherently fast atmospheric response to radiative forcing and reveal a new AA mechanism.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"150 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123034322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-11DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ace210
Izidine Pinto, E. C. de Perez, C. Jaime, P. Wolski, Lisa van Aardenne, E. Jjemba, Jasmijn Suidman, A. Serrat-Capdevila, A. Tall
Angola has been characterized as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Climate change compounded by existing poverty, a legacy of conflict and other risk factors, currently impede development and are expected to become worse as climate change impacts increase. In this study we analyze the signal of climate change on temperature and rainfall variables for two time periods, 2020–2040 and 2040–2060. The analysis is based on multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6) and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX). Our findings from the observed dataset indicate that the mean annual temperature over Angola has risen by an average of 1.4 °C since 1951, with a warming rate of approximately 0.2 [0.14–0.25] °C per decade. However, the rainfall pattern appears to be primarily influenced by natural variability. Projections of extreme temperature show an increase with the coldest nights projected to become warmer and the hottest days hotter. Rainfall projections suggest a change in the nature of the rainy season with increases in heavy precipitation events in the future. We investigated how droughts might change in all river basins of Angola, and we found an increased uncertainty about drought in the future. The changes in climate and increased variability demonstrate the need for adaptation measures that focuses on reducing risks in key sectors with a particular focus on adaptation of cities in Angola given a potential increase in mobility towards urban areas.
{"title":"Climate change projections from a multi-model ensemble of CORDEX and CMIPs over Angola","authors":"Izidine Pinto, E. C. de Perez, C. Jaime, P. Wolski, Lisa van Aardenne, E. Jjemba, Jasmijn Suidman, A. Serrat-Capdevila, A. Tall","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/ace210","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace210","url":null,"abstract":"Angola has been characterized as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Climate change compounded by existing poverty, a legacy of conflict and other risk factors, currently impede development and are expected to become worse as climate change impacts increase. In this study we analyze the signal of climate change on temperature and rainfall variables for two time periods, 2020–2040 and 2040–2060. The analysis is based on multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6) and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX). Our findings from the observed dataset indicate that the mean annual temperature over Angola has risen by an average of 1.4 °C since 1951, with a warming rate of approximately 0.2 [0.14–0.25] °C per decade. However, the rainfall pattern appears to be primarily influenced by natural variability. Projections of extreme temperature show an increase with the coldest nights projected to become warmer and the hottest days hotter. Rainfall projections suggest a change in the nature of the rainy season with increases in heavy precipitation events in the future. We investigated how droughts might change in all river basins of Angola, and we found an increased uncertainty about drought in the future. The changes in climate and increased variability demonstrate the need for adaptation measures that focuses on reducing risks in key sectors with a particular focus on adaptation of cities in Angola given a potential increase in mobility towards urban areas.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"543 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132869364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-11DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ace27a
D. Bonan, N. Feldl, M. Zelinka, L. Hahn
The polar regions are predicted to experience the largest relative change in precipitation in response to increased greenhouse-gas concentrations, where a substantial absolute increase in precipitation coincides with small precipitation rates in the present-day climate. The reasons for this amplification, however, are still debated. Here, we use an atmospheric energy budget to decompose regional precipitation change from climate models under greenhouse-gas forcing into contributions from atmospheric radiative feedbacks, dry-static energy flux divergence changes, and surface sensible heat flux changes. The polar-amplified relative precipitation change is shown to be a consequence of the Planck feedback, which, when combined with larger polar warming, favors substantial atmospheric radiative cooling that balances increases in latent heat release from precipitation. Changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence contribute modestly to the polar-amplified pattern. Additional contributions to the polar-amplified response come, in the Arctic, from the cloud feedback and, in the Antarctic, from both the cloud and water vapor feedbacks. The primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the relative precipitation change in the polar region is also the Planck feedback, with the lapse rate feedback and dry-static energy flux divergence changes playing secondary roles. For all regions, there are strong covariances between radiative feedbacks and changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence that impact the intermodel spread. These results imply that constraining regional precipitation change, particularly in the polar regions, will require constraining not only individual feedbacks but also the covariances between radiative feedbacks and atmospheric energy transport.
{"title":"Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming","authors":"D. Bonan, N. Feldl, M. Zelinka, L. Hahn","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/ace27a","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace27a","url":null,"abstract":"The polar regions are predicted to experience the largest relative change in precipitation in response to increased greenhouse-gas concentrations, where a substantial absolute increase in precipitation coincides with small precipitation rates in the present-day climate. The reasons for this amplification, however, are still debated. Here, we use an atmospheric energy budget to decompose regional precipitation change from climate models under greenhouse-gas forcing into contributions from atmospheric radiative feedbacks, dry-static energy flux divergence changes, and surface sensible heat flux changes. The polar-amplified relative precipitation change is shown to be a consequence of the Planck feedback, which, when combined with larger polar warming, favors substantial atmospheric radiative cooling that balances increases in latent heat release from precipitation. Changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence contribute modestly to the polar-amplified pattern. Additional contributions to the polar-amplified response come, in the Arctic, from the cloud feedback and, in the Antarctic, from both the cloud and water vapor feedbacks. The primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the relative precipitation change in the polar region is also the Planck feedback, with the lapse rate feedback and dry-static energy flux divergence changes playing secondary roles. For all regions, there are strong covariances between radiative feedbacks and changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence that impact the intermodel spread. These results imply that constraining regional precipitation change, particularly in the polar regions, will require constraining not only individual feedbacks but also the covariances between radiative feedbacks and atmospheric energy transport.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129324770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-07DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ace20f
S. Sejas, P. Taylor
In response to a positive CO2 forcing, the seasonal Arctic warming pattern is characterized by an early winter maximum and a summer minimum. While robust, our fundamental understanding of the seasonal expression of Arctic surface warming remains incomplete. Our analysis explores the relationship between the seasonal cycle of surface heating rate changes and the seasonal structure of Arctic warming in modern climate models. Consistent across all models, we find that the background summer-to-winter surface cooling rate and winter-to-summer surface heating rate slows over sea ice regions in response to increased CO2. The slowing of the background summer-to-winter surface cooling rate leads to an early winter Arctic warming maximum, whereby regions and models with a greater slowing also produce a greater winter warming peak. By decomposing the contributions to the background seasonal heating rate change, we find that reductions in sea ice cover and thickness are primarily responsible for the changes. The winter warming peak results from the loss of sea ice cover, which transitions the Arctic surface from a lower thermal inertia surface (sea ice) to a higher thermal inertia surface (ice-free ocean) that slows the seasonal cooling rate. The seasonal cooling rate in autumn is further slowed by the thinning of sea ice, which allows for a greater conductance of heat from the ocean through the sea ice to the surface. These results offer an alternate perspective of the seasonality of Arctic warming, whereby the changing thermal inertia of the Arctic surface is an important aspect of the seasonality, complementary to other perspectives.
{"title":"The role of sea ice in establishing the seasonal Arctic warming pattern","authors":"S. Sejas, P. Taylor","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/ace20f","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace20f","url":null,"abstract":"In response to a positive CO2 forcing, the seasonal Arctic warming pattern is characterized by an early winter maximum and a summer minimum. While robust, our fundamental understanding of the seasonal expression of Arctic surface warming remains incomplete. Our analysis explores the relationship between the seasonal cycle of surface heating rate changes and the seasonal structure of Arctic warming in modern climate models. Consistent across all models, we find that the background summer-to-winter surface cooling rate and winter-to-summer surface heating rate slows over sea ice regions in response to increased CO2. The slowing of the background summer-to-winter surface cooling rate leads to an early winter Arctic warming maximum, whereby regions and models with a greater slowing also produce a greater winter warming peak. By decomposing the contributions to the background seasonal heating rate change, we find that reductions in sea ice cover and thickness are primarily responsible for the changes. The winter warming peak results from the loss of sea ice cover, which transitions the Arctic surface from a lower thermal inertia surface (sea ice) to a higher thermal inertia surface (ice-free ocean) that slows the seasonal cooling rate. The seasonal cooling rate in autumn is further slowed by the thinning of sea ice, which allows for a greater conductance of heat from the ocean through the sea ice to the surface. These results offer an alternate perspective of the seasonality of Arctic warming, whereby the changing thermal inertia of the Arctic surface is an important aspect of the seasonality, complementary to other perspectives.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129079464","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-07DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ace279
O. Alizadeh
The frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events may change in response to shifts in the mean and variability of climate, which pose high risks to societies and natural ecosystems. Gridded near-surface temperature, precipitation, and the number of wet days from the Climatic Research Unit dataset were analyzed for two 30 year periods to explore changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation over global land areas in the recent period (1991–2020) compared to the reference period (1951–1980). Global land areas are characterized by warmer and slightly wetter conditions in the recent period, while the variability of temperature and precipitation has remained nearly unchanged. Changes in the mean and variability of both temperature and precipitation are also analyzed over tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude land areas. The annual mean temperature over all these three latitudinal regions has increased in the recent period compared to the reference period, with the highest increase in subtropical and midlatitude land areas (0.7 ∘C), followed by tropical land areas (0.5 ∘C), while temperature variability has remained nearly unchanged. The annual precipitation has decreased over tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude land areas in the recent period compared to the reference period. Precipitation variability has not changed considerably over subtropical land areas. However, it has substantially increased over tropical land areas, which indicates a higher risk of droughts and periods of excess water in the recent period. In contrast, precipitation variability has decreased over midlatitude land areas, indicating narrower swings between wet and dry conditions, which decrease the risk of droughts and periods of excess water in the recent period.
{"title":"Changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation over global land areas","authors":"O. Alizadeh","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/ace279","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace279","url":null,"abstract":"The frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events may change in response to shifts in the mean and variability of climate, which pose high risks to societies and natural ecosystems. Gridded near-surface temperature, precipitation, and the number of wet days from the Climatic Research Unit dataset were analyzed for two 30 year periods to explore changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation over global land areas in the recent period (1991–2020) compared to the reference period (1951–1980). Global land areas are characterized by warmer and slightly wetter conditions in the recent period, while the variability of temperature and precipitation has remained nearly unchanged. Changes in the mean and variability of both temperature and precipitation are also analyzed over tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude land areas. The annual mean temperature over all these three latitudinal regions has increased in the recent period compared to the reference period, with the highest increase in subtropical and midlatitude land areas (0.7 ∘C), followed by tropical land areas (0.5 ∘C), while temperature variability has remained nearly unchanged. The annual precipitation has decreased over tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude land areas in the recent period compared to the reference period. Precipitation variability has not changed considerably over subtropical land areas. However, it has substantially increased over tropical land areas, which indicates a higher risk of droughts and periods of excess water in the recent period. In contrast, precipitation variability has decreased over midlatitude land areas, indicating narrower swings between wet and dry conditions, which decrease the risk of droughts and periods of excess water in the recent period.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"75 s320","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132228154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-06DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ace4e9
Andrew Kampfschulte, Rebecca K. Miller
Community-wide wildfire mitigation can effectively protect homes from structure ignition. The Firewise USA program provides a framework for grassroots wildfire preparedness. Here, we examine the 500 Firewise USA sites in California to understand participation and demographic trends. We find important regional differences regarding the influence of underlying fire hazard, fire history, and other Firewise sites on new site formation. Sites in the Bay Area and Sierras respond strongly to fire history and proximity to other Firewise sites, while Northern and Southern California have few Firewise sites despite underlying hazardous conditions and large fire history. Firewise sites are often whiter, older, and more well-educated than California’s median population, potentially leaving out many communities that do not meet this demographic profile but face severe risks from wildfires. These findings offer important insights into the factors motivating communities to pursue wildfire protection, particularly important given recent severe and destructive wildfire seasons.
{"title":"Regional participation trends for community wildfire preparedness program Firewise USA","authors":"Andrew Kampfschulte, Rebecca K. Miller","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/ace4e9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace4e9","url":null,"abstract":"Community-wide wildfire mitigation can effectively protect homes from structure ignition. The Firewise USA program provides a framework for grassroots wildfire preparedness. Here, we examine the 500 Firewise USA sites in California to understand participation and demographic trends. We find important regional differences regarding the influence of underlying fire hazard, fire history, and other Firewise sites on new site formation. Sites in the Bay Area and Sierras respond strongly to fire history and proximity to other Firewise sites, while Northern and Southern California have few Firewise sites despite underlying hazardous conditions and large fire history. Firewise sites are often whiter, older, and more well-educated than California’s median population, potentially leaving out many communities that do not meet this demographic profile but face severe risks from wildfires. These findings offer important insights into the factors motivating communities to pursue wildfire protection, particularly important given recent severe and destructive wildfire seasons.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133195284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-06DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ace4e8
M. Previdi, J. Lamarque, A. Fiore, D. Westervelt, D. Shindell, G. Correa, G. Faluvegi
This study examines the Arctic surface air temperature response to regional aerosol emissions reductions using three fully coupled chemistry–climate models: National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Earth System Model version 1, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-Coupled Climate Model version 3 (GFDL-CM3) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies-ModelE version 2. Each of these models was used to perform a series of aerosol perturbation experiments, in which emissions of different aerosol types (sulfate, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon) in different northern mid-latitude source regions, and of biomass burning aerosol over South America and Africa, were substantially reduced or eliminated. We find that the Arctic warms in nearly every experiment, the only exceptions being the U.S. and Europe BC experiments in GFDL-CM3 in which there is a weak and insignificant cooling. The Arctic warming is generally larger than the global mean warming (i.e. Arctic amplification occurs), particularly during non-summer months. The models agree that changes in the poleward atmospheric moisture transport are the most important factor explaining the spread in Arctic warming across experiments: the largest warming tends to coincide with the largest increases in moisture transport into the Arctic. In contrast, there is an inconsistent relationship (correlation) across experiments between the local radiative forcing over the Arctic and the simulated Arctic warming, with this relationship being positive in one model (GFDL-CM3) and negative in the other two. Our results thus highlight the prominent role of poleward energy transport in driving Arctic warming and amplification, and suggest that the relative importance of poleward energy transport and local forcing/feedbacks is likely to be model dependent.
{"title":"Arctic warming in response to regional aerosol emissions reductions","authors":"M. Previdi, J. Lamarque, A. Fiore, D. Westervelt, D. Shindell, G. Correa, G. Faluvegi","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/ace4e8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ace4e8","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the Arctic surface air temperature response to regional aerosol emissions reductions using three fully coupled chemistry–climate models: National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Earth System Model version 1, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-Coupled Climate Model version 3 (GFDL-CM3) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies-ModelE version 2. Each of these models was used to perform a series of aerosol perturbation experiments, in which emissions of different aerosol types (sulfate, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon) in different northern mid-latitude source regions, and of biomass burning aerosol over South America and Africa, were substantially reduced or eliminated. We find that the Arctic warms in nearly every experiment, the only exceptions being the U.S. and Europe BC experiments in GFDL-CM3 in which there is a weak and insignificant cooling. The Arctic warming is generally larger than the global mean warming (i.e. Arctic amplification occurs), particularly during non-summer months. The models agree that changes in the poleward atmospheric moisture transport are the most important factor explaining the spread in Arctic warming across experiments: the largest warming tends to coincide with the largest increases in moisture transport into the Arctic. In contrast, there is an inconsistent relationship (correlation) across experiments between the local radiative forcing over the Arctic and the simulated Arctic warming, with this relationship being positive in one model (GFDL-CM3) and negative in the other two. Our results thus highlight the prominent role of poleward energy transport in driving Arctic warming and amplification, and suggest that the relative importance of poleward energy transport and local forcing/feedbacks is likely to be model dependent.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133472309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-29DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/acdaec
Trisha D Patel, Romaric C. Odoulami, Izidine Pinto, Temitope S Egbebiyi, C. Lennard, B. Abiodun, M. New
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is the theoretical deployment of sulphate particles into the stratosphere to reflect incoming solar radiation and trigger a cooling impact at the Earth’s surface. This study assessed the potential impact of SAI geoengineering on temperature and precipitation extremes over South Africa (SAF) and its climatic zones in the future (2075–2095) using simulations from the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) project. We analyse three different experiments from the GLENS project, each of which simulate stratospheric SO2 injection under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions scenario: (i) tropical injection around 22.8–25 km altitude (GLENS), (ii) tropical injection around 1 km above the tropopause (GLENS_low), and (iii) injection near the equator around 20–25 km (GLENS_eq). The study used a set of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices describing temperature and rainfall extremes to assess the impact of the three SAI experiments on extreme weather in the future over SAF. The results of this study indicate that, relative to the baseline period (2010–2030), all three SAI experiments are mostly over-effective in offsetting the projected RCP8.5 increase in the frequency of hot (up to −60%) and decrease (up to +10%) in cold temperature extremes over SAF and its climatic zones. These findings suggest that SAI could cause over-cooling in SAF. However, SAI impact on precipitation extremes is less linear and varies across the country’s climatic zones. For example, SAI could reinforce the projected decrease in precipitation extremes across most of SAF, although it could exacerbate heavy precipitation over the KwaZulu-Natal Coast. These findings are consistent across SAI experiments except in magnitude, as GLENS_eq and GLENS_low could cause larger decreases in precipitation extremes than GLENS. These findings imply that SAI could alleviate heat stress on human health, agriculture, and vulnerable communities while simultaneously decreasing infrastructure and crops’ vulnerability to flooding. It is, however, essential to interpret these findings cautiously as they are specific to the SAI experiments and modelling settings considered in the GLENS project.
{"title":"Potential impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on projected temperature and precipitation extremes in South Africa","authors":"Trisha D Patel, Romaric C. Odoulami, Izidine Pinto, Temitope S Egbebiyi, C. Lennard, B. Abiodun, M. New","doi":"10.1088/2752-5295/acdaec","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acdaec","url":null,"abstract":"Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is the theoretical deployment of sulphate particles into the stratosphere to reflect incoming solar radiation and trigger a cooling impact at the Earth’s surface. This study assessed the potential impact of SAI geoengineering on temperature and precipitation extremes over South Africa (SAF) and its climatic zones in the future (2075–2095) using simulations from the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) project. We analyse three different experiments from the GLENS project, each of which simulate stratospheric SO2 injection under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions scenario: (i) tropical injection around 22.8–25 km altitude (GLENS), (ii) tropical injection around 1 km above the tropopause (GLENS_low), and (iii) injection near the equator around 20–25 km (GLENS_eq). The study used a set of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices describing temperature and rainfall extremes to assess the impact of the three SAI experiments on extreme weather in the future over SAF. The results of this study indicate that, relative to the baseline period (2010–2030), all three SAI experiments are mostly over-effective in offsetting the projected RCP8.5 increase in the frequency of hot (up to −60%) and decrease (up to +10%) in cold temperature extremes over SAF and its climatic zones. These findings suggest that SAI could cause over-cooling in SAF. However, SAI impact on precipitation extremes is less linear and varies across the country’s climatic zones. For example, SAI could reinforce the projected decrease in precipitation extremes across most of SAF, although it could exacerbate heavy precipitation over the KwaZulu-Natal Coast. These findings are consistent across SAI experiments except in magnitude, as GLENS_eq and GLENS_low could cause larger decreases in precipitation extremes than GLENS. These findings imply that SAI could alleviate heat stress on human health, agriculture, and vulnerable communities while simultaneously decreasing infrastructure and crops’ vulnerability to flooding. It is, however, essential to interpret these findings cautiously as they are specific to the SAI experiments and modelling settings considered in the GLENS project.","PeriodicalId":432508,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research: Climate","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123422245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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