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Evaluating electoral reforms and its consequences in Indonesia and Thailand (2000–2023) 评估印度尼西亚和泰国的选举改革及其后果(2000-2023 年)
IF 1 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.1177/20578911241263617
Kalimah Wasis Lestari, Hari Fitrianto, Asama Mungkornchai, Fahrul Muzaqqi, Nuke Faridha Wardhani
This article investigates electoral reforms in Indonesia and Thailand in the 21st century, highlighting important dimensions of the electoral changes and their consequences in disproportionality and the effective number of parties. In the first stage, we identify electoral changes and the ideal goals of electoral reform. Second, we compare each election's results by calculating disproportional results and the effective number of parties, followed by in-depth interviews with key stakeholders (N = 8) to uncover the evaluation and recommendation for a better future of the electoral system in both countries. The analysis reveals the government's motivation behind the electoral system chosen. In Indonesia, the reforms addressed realising the limited pluralism party system raised a thorny debate among small to medium parties about rescuing their seats in parliament. Otherwise, the Thai government accommodates small parties by waiving the electoral threshold. We identify that different people in positions of power in each country cause different ideal goals. This research contributes to developing an understanding that elite motivation outweighs the public good in designing electoral reform. While in Thailand the control to determine which electoral system is chosen seems more centralised by the junta military, the shift of the electoral system in Indonesia is strongly motivated by political actors in order to gain their pragmatic interests.
本文对 21 世纪印度尼西亚和泰国的选举改革进行了研究,强调了选举改革的重要方面及其对政党比例失调和政党有效数量的影响。在第一阶段,我们确定了选举变革和选举改革的理想目标。其次,我们通过计算比例失调的结果和政党的有效数量来比较每次选举的结果,然后对主要利益相关者(N = 8)进行深入访谈,以揭示对两国选举制度更美好未来的评价和建议。分析揭示了政府选择选举制度的动机。在印尼,为实现有限多元化政党制度而进行的改革引发了中小政党关于挽救其议会席位的激烈争论。泰国政府则通过放弃选举门槛来照顾小党派。我们发现,在每个国家,不同的掌权者会产生不同的理想目标。这项研究有助于人们理解,在设计选举改革时,精英的动机大于公共利益。在泰国,决定选择哪种选举制度的控制权似乎更集中于军政府军方,而在印尼,选举制度的转变则受到政治参与者的强烈推动,以获得他们的实际利益。
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引用次数: 0
Social media, youth and civil unrest in India: A new rebel's dilemma 印度的社交媒体、青年和内乱:新叛乱者的困境
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-04 DOI: 10.1177/20578911241254165
S. Roy
Social media has received tremendous attention as a tool of revolution since the Arab Spring. Current scholarship predicts that social media can be a threat to internal stability by aiding rebel recruitment and mobilizing them. This article expands this research agenda beyond the Middle East-North Africa region and authoritarian regimes and explains the dynamics of how social media affects contentious politics. Youth bulge is used here as an intervening variable between social media and conflict. Using mixed methods on a sample of 28 Indian states, four Union Territories and 200 educated youth, I find that the presence of educated youth using social media is not a clear threat. Online and offline surveys conducted on Indian youth show that they do not consider social media a useful “technology of revolution” for mobilizing support and thereby bringing about any meaningful change. At best, social media helps in gathering support at the local level like in a neighborhood brawl.
自 "阿拉伯之春 "以来,社交媒体作为一种革命工具受到了极大关注。目前的学术研究预测,社交媒体可以通过帮助叛军招募和动员叛军来威胁国内稳定。本文将这一研究议程扩展到中东-北非地区和专制政权之外,并解释了社交媒体如何影响有争议政治的动态。本文将青年人口暴增作为社交媒体与冲突之间的干预变量。通过对印度 28 个邦、4 个中央直辖区和 200 名受过教育的青年进行抽样调查,我发现受过教育的青年使用社交媒体并不是一个明显的威胁。对印度青年进行的在线和离线调查显示,他们并不认为社交媒体是一种有用的 "革命技术",可以动员支持,从而带来任何有意义的变革。社交媒体充其量只能像邻里斗殴一样,在地方层面收集支持。
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引用次数: 0
Winning hearts in Southeast Asia? News sentiment on China amidst the US–PRC trade war 在东南亚赢得民心?美中贸易战中的中国新闻情绪
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-20 DOI: 10.1177/20578911241252692
R. A. Panao
How did the trade rivalry between the United States and China impact China's foreign public image in the ASEAN press? In the context of Southeast Asia's mixed attitude toward China, this article argues that the trade war between China and the United States heightened negative sentiment on China, especially in states grappling with the latter as a security threat, but whose investment climate has been slower to respond to the restructuring of the global supply chain. Drawing from econometric analyses of news sentiment mined from a corpus of 75,619 online English news articles in all 10 Southeast Asian countries from January 2016 to March 2020, we find that the trade war induced negative news sentiment on China in the ASEAN press. However, foreign visits to and from China appear to have been favorably regarded and helped boost China's image in the region. The findings remind that there may be a need for China to rethink its carrot-and-stick strategy to win the hearts and minds of its ASEAN neighbors.
中美之间的贸易竞争如何影响了中国在东盟媒体中的对外公众形象?在东南亚国家对中国态度不一的背景下,本文认为中美贸易战加剧了对中国的负面情绪,尤其是在那些正努力将中国视为安全威胁的国家,但这些国家的投资环境对全球供应链重组的反应较慢。我们从 2016 年 1 月至 2020 年 3 月所有 10 个东南亚国家的 75619 篇在线英文新闻文章语料库中挖掘出的新闻情绪计量分析结果发现,贸易战引发了东盟新闻界对中国的负面新闻情绪。然而,外国人士对中国的来访似乎受到好评,有助于提升中国在该地区的形象。研究结果提醒我们,中国可能需要重新思考其胡萝卜加大棒战略,以赢得东盟邻国的民心。
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引用次数: 0
Back to the past: The roots of Indonesian middlepowermanship 回到过去:印度尼西亚中产阶级的根源
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-12 DOI: 10.1177/20578911241236518
Dion Maulana Prasetya, Suyatno Ladiqi, Mohd Affandi Salleh
This article challenges prevalent perspectives on Indonesian foreign policy by delving into the nuanced intricacies of the country's strategic culture, especially from its role as a middle power. The conventional understanding categorizes Indonesia as capable of embracing either a status quo or revisionist stance. However, this analysis proposes a comprehensive re-evaluation through the lens of strategic culture theory to decipher the distinctive approach of Indonesian middlepowermanship. The argument posits that Indonesian leaders draw inspiration from and strategically utilize the historical legacies of pre-modern kingdoms—specifically, the Majapahit and Mataram kingdoms. These ancient empires serve as pivotal references in shaping contemporary foreign policy orientations. The Majapahit kingdom becomes instrumental when Indonesia pursues revisionist-like foreign policies, seeking to assert its influence and challenge established norms. Conversely, the Mataram kingdom's legacy is invoked when the state aims to maintain a status quo, prioritizing stability and regional harmony. By scrutinizing these historical paradigms, this article unpacks the intricate interplay between Indonesia's strategic culture, its historical antecedents, and its foreign policy orientations. It seeks to provide a more nuanced understanding of Indonesian middlepowermanship, elucidating the adaptive utilization of historical narratives in shaping the country's geopolitical behavior on the modern global stage.
本文通过深入探讨印尼战略文化的微妙复杂性,特别是从其作为中等强国的角色出发,对印尼外交政策的普遍观点提出了挑战。按照传统的理解,印尼既可以保持现状,也可以采取修正主义立场。然而,本分析报告通过战略文化理论的视角提出了全面的重新评价,以解读印尼中等强国的独特做法。该论点认为,印尼领导人从前现代王国的历史遗产中汲取灵感,并在战略上加以利用,特别是马查帕希特王国(Majapahit)和马打兰王国(Mataram)。这些古老的帝国是塑造当代外交政策取向的关键参照。当印尼奉行修正主义式的外交政策,试图维护自己的影响力并挑战既定规范时,马札帕赫特王国就成了重要的参考。相反,当印尼希望维持现状、优先考虑稳定与地区和谐时,马打兰王国的遗产就会被引用。通过仔细研究这些历史范式,本文揭示了印尼战略文化、历史先例及其外交政策取向之间错综复杂的相互作用。文章试图提供对印尼中间力量的更细致入微的理解,阐明历史叙事在塑造印尼在现代全球舞台上的地缘政治行为中的适应性运用。
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引用次数: 0
The process of personalization in Nicaragua: Lessons from the hybrid regime 尼加拉瓜的个性化进程:混合制度的经验教训
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-12 DOI: 10.1177/20578911241238375
Suguru Osawa
This article explores how personalization was formed in Nicaragua under the leadership of Daniel Ortega, focusing on four factors: short-term, long-term, domestic, and international perspectives. Nicaraguan politics are often structured by the country's relationship with the USA and regional powers. However, domestic actors make decisions regarding political regime changes. Therefore, the process of personalization must be considered in both domestic and international politics. This study's analysis unequivocally demonstrates that domestic and international factors have always influenced political regime changes in Nicaragua. However, personalization is primarily formed by domestic factors, with external factors reinforcing domestic movement in Nicaragua. In addition, this study shows that it is challenging to explain the process of Ortega's personalization according to short-term factors such as populism. Instead, it is a long-term factor, specifically the traditional power-sharing method in a duopoly, that pushes Ortega's personalization forward. We conclude that Nicaragua's hybrid regime resulted in personalization.
本文探讨了丹尼尔-奥尔特加领导下的尼加拉瓜是如何形成个人化的,重点关注四个因素:短期、长期、国内和国际视角。尼加拉瓜政治通常由该国与美国和地区大国的关系所决定。然而,国内行动者也会对政权更迭做出决定。因此,国内和国际政治都必须考虑个性化进程。本研究的分析明确表明,国内和国际因素一直影响着尼加拉瓜的政权更迭。然而,个性化主要是由国内因素形成的,外部因素强化了尼加拉瓜的国内运动。此外,本研究还表明,根据民粹主义等短期因素来解释奥尔特加的个人化进程具有挑战性。相反,推动奥尔特加个人化进程的是一个长期因素,特别是双头垄断中的传统权力分享方式。我们的结论是,尼加拉瓜的混合政权导致了个人化。
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引用次数: 0
The politics of labeling TNPPB-OPM as terrorist: Explanation, process, and implications 给 TNPPB-OPM 贴上恐怖主义标签的政治:解释、过程和影响
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-21 DOI: 10.1177/20578911241231998
S. Yunanto, Angel Damayanti
This research aimed to determine the explanations, processes, and implications of the Indonesian government's controversial labeling of TNPPB-OPM as a terrorist group. The labeling reflected the strategy implemented by the government to move from purely military to law enforcement approaches. Despite the split amongst government agencies during the labeling process, it was carried out to legitimize security forces with the terrorism law, deal with prolonged violent conflict, and reject the extension of the special autonomy and security situation during XX PON in the two provinces in Papua. This research found paradoxical implications and although it effectively provided a security situation, it failed to stigmatize and stereotype the Papuan Freedom Movement negatively.
本研究旨在确定印尼政府将 TNPPB-OPM 定义为恐怖组织的原因、过程和影响。贴标签反映了政府从纯粹的军事手段转向执法手段的战略。尽管在贴标签的过程中政府机构之间出现了分裂,但贴标签的目的是使安全部队在恐怖主义法下合法化,应对长期的暴力冲突,拒绝在巴布亚两省扩大XX PON期间的特别自治和安全局势。这项研究发现了自相矛盾的影响,虽然它有效地提供了安全局势,但却未能对巴布亚自由运动进行负面污名化和定型化。
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引用次数: 0
Why populist rule sustains during times of crisis: COVID-19, democracy and the state in Indonesia 为什么民粹主义统治在危机时期得以维持?印度尼西亚的 COVID-19、民主与国家
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.1177/20578911241230443
Muhammad Asfar, I. Wicaksana, Ais Shafiyah Asfar
This article explains why populist rule persists during the challenging times of COVID-19, yet democratic order is unfavourably affected. The authors observe the recent debates on the state government's crisis response and performance, which argue for democracy over populism in managing critical moments. Populists did not do well since they had taken simplistic and anti-science actions on COVID-19. Nonetheless, populism remains popular and populist leaders continue to stay in office. We offer an analysis of the case of Indonesia under the presidency of Joko Widodo (Jokowi). Our research draws upon Michael Mann's theory of the state to uncover the underlying social realities enabling populist regime sustainability. The main argument is that the complex and dynamic state–society power relations shape the ground on which populist rule survives the crisis, but democracy declines. Jokowi's Indonesia confirms this claim.
本文解释了为什么在 COVID-19 的挑战时期,民粹主义统治依然存在,而民主秩序却受到不利影响。作者观察了最近关于州政府危机应对和表现的辩论,辩论认为在管理关键时刻,民主优于民粹。由于民粹主义者对 COVID-19 采取了简单化和反科学的行动,他们的表现并不理想。尽管如此,民粹主义仍然大行其道,民粹主义领导人继续留任。我们对佐科-维多多(Jokowi)担任总统期间的印度尼西亚进行了分析。我们的研究借鉴了迈克尔-曼(Michael Mann)的国家理论,揭示了民粹主义政权得以持续的潜在社会现实。我们的主要论点是,复杂多变的国家-社会权力关系是民粹主义统治在危机中存活下来但民主却衰落的基础。佐科威的印尼证实了这一观点。
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引用次数: 0
Why populist rule sustains during times of crisis: COVID-19, democracy and the state in Indonesia 为什么民粹主义统治在危机时期得以维持?印度尼西亚的 COVID-19、民主与国家
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.1177/20578911241230443
Muhammad Asfar, I. Wicaksana, Ais Shafiyah Asfar
This article explains why populist rule persists during the challenging times of COVID-19, yet democratic order is unfavourably affected. The authors observe the recent debates on the state government's crisis response and performance, which argue for democracy over populism in managing critical moments. Populists did not do well since they had taken simplistic and anti-science actions on COVID-19. Nonetheless, populism remains popular and populist leaders continue to stay in office. We offer an analysis of the case of Indonesia under the presidency of Joko Widodo (Jokowi). Our research draws upon Michael Mann's theory of the state to uncover the underlying social realities enabling populist regime sustainability. The main argument is that the complex and dynamic state–society power relations shape the ground on which populist rule survives the crisis, but democracy declines. Jokowi's Indonesia confirms this claim.
本文解释了为什么在 COVID-19 的挑战时期,民粹主义统治依然存在,而民主秩序却受到不利影响。作者观察了最近关于州政府危机应对和表现的辩论,辩论认为在管理关键时刻,民主优于民粹。由于民粹主义者对 COVID-19 采取了简单化和反科学的行动,他们的表现并不理想。尽管如此,民粹主义仍然大行其道,民粹主义领导人继续留任。我们对佐科-维多多(Jokowi)担任总统期间的印度尼西亚进行了分析。我们的研究借鉴了迈克尔-曼(Michael Mann)的国家理论,揭示了民粹主义政权得以持续的潜在社会现实。我们的主要论点是,复杂多变的国家-社会权力关系是民粹主义统治在危机中存活下来但民主却衰落的基础。佐科威的印尼证实了这一观点。
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19 and returnee migrant workers’ struggles in Southern Thailand COVID-19 和泰国南部回国移民工人的斗争
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1177/20578911241227383
B. Chaijaroenwatana, Md Mahbubul Haque, Kittipan Ekareesakul
COVID-19 has had a devastating impact on migrant workers all over the world, including in Malaysia. This study focuses on the undocumented Thai migrant workers in Malaysia. Due to their illegal status, as returnee migrants in Thailand, they could not seek assistance from the government. This study aims to explore the struggle of illegal Thai migrant workers after returning to their country of origin and responses from government and other organizations. The methodology used for this research is a multi-site case study, with the case study sites being southern border provinces: Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, Songkla, and capital city Bangkok. Data were collected through intensive fieldwork and various secondary documents. This study revealed that Thailand has not developed any concrete policy to assist the returnee workers in the pandemic period. There is a lack of coordination among government agencies, and local support including from civil society organizations initiatives has been inadequate.
COVID-19 对包括马来西亚在内的世界各地的移徙工人造成了破坏性影响。本研究的重点是在马来西亚的无证泰国移民工人。由于他们的非法身份,作为泰国回国移民,他们无法向政府寻求援助。本研究旨在探讨泰国非法移民工人返回原籍国后的挣扎以及政府和其他组织的回应。本研究采用的方法是多地点个案研究,个案研究地点为南部边境省份:研究地点为南部边境省份:北大年府、也拉府、那拉提瓦府、宋卡府和首都曼谷。通过深入的实地考察和各种二手文献收集数据。研究结果表明,泰国尚未制定任何具体政策来帮助大流行病时期的回国劳工。政府机构之间缺乏协调,包括民间社会组织倡议在内的地方支持不足。
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引用次数: 0
When the tables turn: Parties in power, losers’ consent, and institutional trust in Taiwan 当形势逆转:台湾的执政党、失败者的同意和制度信任
IF 0.7 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1177/20578911231225501
T. Rich
How does vote choice and partisanship affect institutional trust in Taiwan? While the literature tackles institutional trust in democracies, analyses often focus on only one time period with aggregate measures of trust. Data from two waves from the Asian Barometer finds evidence consistent with losers’ consent of trust in electoral institutions corresponding with party support and vote choice, factors that remain after controlling for trust in non-electoral institutions and generalized trust. However, these factors do not seem to affect overall satisfaction with democracy, suggesting the public differentiates between support for the ideal of democracy and its constituent parts.
选票选择和党派倾向如何影响台湾的制度信任?虽然有文献探讨了民主国家的制度信任问题,但分析往往只集中在一个时间段,对信任度进行综合衡量。来自《亚洲晴雨表》两次调查的数据发现,失败者对选举机构信任的认同与政党支持和选票选择是一致的,这些因素在控制了对非选举机构的信任和普遍信任后仍然存在。然而,这些因素似乎并不影响对民主的总体满意度,这表明公众对民主理想及其组成部分的支持是有区别的。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Asian Journal of Comparative Politics
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