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Professional political pollsters as a liberal democratic epistemic community: Revisiting transformations of Indonesian political pollsters in the last decade of the Soeharto and post-Soeharto eras 作为自由民主知识共同体的专业政治民意测验专家:回顾苏哈托和后苏哈托时代最后十年印尼政治民意测验专家的转变
IF 0.7 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-10-13 DOI: 10.1177/20578911221129790
Nyarwi Ahmad, Eriyanto Eriyanto
This article proposes the notion of the professional political pollster as a liberal democratic epistemic community. It examines transformations of Indonesian political pollster organisations in the last decade of the Soeharto era and in the post-Soeharto era. The findings extracted from the academic and mainstream media reports and the in-depth interview data collected from seven political pollsters associated with prominent Indonesian polling organisations are as follows. In the last decade of the Soeharto era, professional political pollsters visibly evolved but played less significant roles in Indonesian politics. As the Soeharto regime collapsed, they gradually had more substantial roles in Indonesian electoral politics and took shape as a robust and convergent liberal democratic epistemic community. After Indonesia's 2004 presidential election, most of them not only turned into political consultants but also engaged in a pollster war. This made them take shape as not only a fragile but also a divergent liberal democratic epistemic community. A set of recommendations is proposed to tackle this problem.
本文提出了职业政治民意测验专家作为一个自由民主的认知共同体的概念。它考察了印尼政治民调机构在苏哈托时代的最后十年和后苏哈托时代的转变。从学术和主流媒体报道中提取的结果,以及从与印度尼西亚著名民意调查机构有关的七名政治民意调查人员收集的深度访谈数据如下。在苏哈托时代的最后十年里,职业政治民意调查人员明显有所发展,但在印尼政治中的作用有所减弱。随着苏哈托政权的垮台,他们逐渐在印尼的选举政治中发挥了更重要的作用,并形成了一个强大而融合的自由民主知识共同体。2004年印尼总统选举后,他们中的大多数人不仅成为了政治顾问,还参与了民意调查战。这使他们不仅形成了一个脆弱的,而且形成了一个分歧的自由民主认识共同体。为了解决这个问题,提出了一套建议。
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引用次数: 0
Challenges facing Pakistan in the interconnected and interdependent global world 巴基斯坦在相互联系和相互依存的全球世界中面临的挑战
IF 0.7 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-10-09 DOI: 10.1177/20578911221129036
S. Aamir
Globalization is a trendy, intriguing, and compelling term, but it is also divisive, contentious, and problematic. It is also one of the 21st century's most talked-about economic, political, social, and cultural phenomena. Globalization, according to several writers, is a multifaceted phenomenon. Internationalization and cosmopolitanism, assimilation and fragmentation, universalization and homogenization are all part of this process, which is essentially an unavoidable dialectical mechanism involving rapid social, cultural, political, and technical change. As a result, these changes are occurring concurrently in many directions, at various sizes, and in various regions, demonstrating the interdependence and interconnection of all these disciplines, sizes, and scenarios. There are various facets of globalization that are influencing the current world, and each of these dimensions is inextricably linked to the others. Interdependency and interconnectivity are the two main processes and key tools of globalization that are responsible for creating a homogenized and deterritorialized world. Pakistan attempted to cultivate excellent connections with the rest of the world immediately after independence in order to capitalize on the opportunities created by globalization. However, it is critical to determine whether Pakistan can make use of the prospects as a developing country or whether the opportunities are solely available to industrial and developed countries. It is also important to examine Pakistan's efforts to integrate into the global community and to investigate its repercussions. This research article is a case study of Pakistan to study the implications of globalization on local culture and common citizens. For this purpose, a simple and direct research methodology was adopted by using both primary (including scholarly works, research articles, reports, case studies, and dissertations) and secondary sources (qualitative and quantitative data supplied by other scholars and agencies).
全球化是一个时髦、有趣、令人信服的术语,但它也存在分歧、争议和问题。它也是21世纪最受关注的经济、政治、社会和文化现象之一。几位作家认为,全球化是一个多方面的现象。国际化和世界主义、同化和碎片化、普遍化和同质化都是这一过程的一部分,这本质上是一种不可避免的辩证机制,涉及社会、文化、政治和技术的快速变化。因此,这些变化在多个方向、不同规模和不同地区同时发生,表明了所有这些学科、规模和场景的相互依存和相互联系。全球化的各个方面正在影响着当今世界,其中每个方面都与其他方面密不可分。相互依存和相互联系是全球化的两个主要过程和关键工具,它们有助于创造一个同质化和非同质化的世界。巴基斯坦试图在独立后立即与世界其他地区建立良好的联系,以利用全球化带来的机遇。然而,至关重要的是要确定巴基斯坦是否能够利用作为一个发展中国家的前景,或者这些机会是否只提供给工业国家和发达国家。审查巴基斯坦融入国际社会的努力并调查其影响也很重要。这篇研究文章是巴基斯坦的一个案例研究,旨在研究全球化对当地文化和普通公民的影响。为此,采用了一种简单直接的研究方法,既使用了主要来源(包括学术著作、研究文章、报告、案例研究和学位论文),也使用了次要来源(其他学者和机构提供的定性和定量数据)。
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引用次数: 0
Democratic backsliding disrupted: The role of digitalized resistance in Myanmar 民主倒退中断:数字化抵抗在缅甸的作用
IF 0.7 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-10-03 DOI: 10.1177/20578911221125511
Megan Ryan, Mai Van Tran
More than one year since its coup, the Myanmar military has neither established effective control of the territory nor crushed online dissent. What factors have enabled the resistance forces to deny the consolidation of military rule? We address this question by building a novel theoretical framework that incorporates the role of long-standing digitalized pro-democracy activism and by conducting a mixed methods analysis that includes an original, largely representative sample of public Facebook posts in post-coup Myanmar. We find that the development of online and hybrid pro-democracy activism against digital abuse and other illiberal policies under previous quasi-civilian governments enabled anti-coup resistance forces to thwart the military's attempt at authoritarian revival in 2021. Our research findings deepen understanding of Myanmar's post-coup contestation dynamics as well as other cases of unpopular autocratization in the digital age.
自政变发生一年多以来,缅甸军方既没有建立对该地区的有效控制,也没有镇压网上的异议。是什么因素使抵抗力量能够否认军事统治的巩固?我们通过建立一个新颖的理论框架来解决这个问题,该框架包含了长期存在的数字化民主活动的作用,并通过进行混合方法分析,其中包括缅甸政变后Facebook公开帖子的原始且具有很大代表性的样本。我们发现,在之前的准文官政府下,针对数字滥用和其他不自由政策的在线和混合民主活动的发展,使反政变抵抗力量能够挫败军方在2021年恢复威权统治的企图。我们的研究结果加深了对缅甸政变后的争论动态以及数字时代其他不受欢迎的独裁情况的理解。
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引用次数: 3
Classifying forms of government on a global scale 在全球范围内对政府形式进行分类
IF 0.7 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-10-02 DOI: 10.1177/20578911221127176
A. Metin, Serkan Ünal
This study classifies the forms of government present in all the countries worldwide. We examined the constitutions of 195 countries and prepared a template that allows us to determine the form of government of any given country. The study contributes to the literature in several ways. First, we support Shugart and Carey’s claim that the president-parliamentary and premier-presidential forms are main types in themselves and not subtypes of semi-presidentialism. Second, based on some fundamental differences, we divided the assembly-government form into two subtypes, namely assembly-independent and assembly-dependent, the latter being introduced as a new subtype. The third significant contribution is to coin a new form of government named semi-monarchial, which is positioned between parliamentary and monarchy forms. Lastly, the study reveals that the most preferred form in the world is parliamentary (57), followed by presidential (43), premier-presidential (31), president-parliamentary (28), assembly-government (13), semi-monarchial (8), and monarchy (4).
本研究对世界各国的政府形式进行了分类。我们审查了195个国家的宪法,并准备了一个模板,使我们能够确定任何特定国家的政府形式。这项研究在几个方面对文献做出了贡献。首先,我们支持舒加特和凯里的说法,即总统-议会和总理-总统形式本身就是主要类型,而不是半总统主义的亚型。其次,基于一些根本差异,我们将议会政府形式分为两种亚型,即议会独立型和议会依赖型,后者作为一种新的亚型引入。第三个重要贡献是创造了一种新的政府形式,称为半君主政体,它位于议会和君主政体之间。最后,研究表明,世界上最受欢迎的形式是议会制(57),其次是总统制(43)、总理制(31)、总统制议会制(28)、议会制政府(13)、半君主制政府(8)和君主制政府(4)。
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引用次数: 1
Indonesia under threat: The danger of corruption to political legitimacy 印尼面临威胁:腐败对政治合法性的威胁
IF 0.7 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-27 DOI: 10.1177/20578911221124965
Derwin Tambunan
The association between corruption and poverty, inequality, economic development and resource distribution has been investigated widely in the Indonesian context. However, the impact of corruption on political legitimacy is still understudied, particularly for post-Soeharto Indonesia. Hence, we are left with many puzzles and a baffling picture of political legitimacy. This research corrects this picture and aims to ascertain two interrelated questions: (a) how and in what way does corruption erode political legitimacy? and (b) what evidence suggests that corruption deteriorates legitimacy? A qualitative and a quantitative research method are deployed to address these questions. The quantitative analysis demonstrates that corruption is statistically significant in predicting political legitimacy, suggesting that corruption erodes citizens’ trust in the rule of law, democracy, political actors and institutions. The qualitative model reinforces the quantitative results that corruption undermines the rule of law, hijacks democracy and erodes people’s trust in political actors and institutions.
腐败与贫困、不平等、经济发展和资源分配之间的联系在印度尼西亚得到了广泛调查。然而,腐败对政治合法性的影响仍然研究不足,尤其是对后苏哈托时代的印度尼西亚而言。因此,我们留下了许多困惑和令人困惑的政治合法性图景。这项研究纠正了这一观点,旨在确定两个相互关联的问题:(a)腐败如何以及以何种方式侵蚀政治合法性?(b)有什么证据表明腐败使合法性恶化?采用定性和定量研究方法来解决这些问题。定量分析表明,腐败在预测政治合法性方面具有统计学意义,表明腐败侵蚀了公民对法治、民主、政治行为者和机构的信任。定性模型强化了腐败破坏法治、劫持民主、侵蚀人民对政治行为者和机构信任的定量结果。
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引用次数: 1
Explaining voting participation gaps in local government elections in rural China 解读中国农村地方政府选举中的投票参与差距
IF 0.7 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.1177/20578911221125510
Liyun Wu, B. Rogers, G. Wang
When studying rural elections in China, scholars usually consider voting participation as consistent across the village and township levels. Using a cross-sectional research design based on data collected in 2009–2011 in rural China, this study reveals that voter turnout in village elections is significantly higher than in township elections. This finding is robust across regions and at different economic development levels. In addition, findings from multivariate regression analyses with bootstrapped Brier scores report that perceived fairness of elections and prevalence of low corruption are strong predictors for voter turnout. Gaps in voting participation of local government elections may reflect different political landscapes in rural governance in Chinese villages versus townships.
在研究中国农村选举时,学者们通常认为乡镇两级的投票参与是一致的。基于2009-2011年在中国农村收集的数据,采用横断面研究设计,本研究表明,农村选举的选民投票率显著高于乡镇选举。这一发现在不同地区和不同的经济发展水平上都是有力的。此外,根据Brier评分进行的多元回归分析结果显示,选举的公平性和低腐败率是选民投票率的有力预测因素。地方政府选举投票参与度的差距可能反映了中国乡村和乡镇乡村治理的不同政治格局。
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引用次数: 1
A comparative view of India and Pakistan’s defence capabilities: Historical evolution and future trends 印度和巴基斯坦国防能力比较:历史演变和未来趋势
IF 0.7 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-18 DOI: 10.1177/20578911221124384
N. Naseer, Muhammad Fahim Khan, Aamer Raza
War has been here since time immemorial and has been influenced and modified by various civilizations; as necessitated by internal and external conflicts and challenges. Every country views war under the lens of factors such as its geography, threats from neighbouring countries, internal circumstances and economic standing. This article discusses and highlights the quest for modern conventional warfare advancement generally, and particularly in the context of two South Asian nuclear armed nations – India and Pakistan, two arch-rivals. Both nations have been trying since their independence to gain an edge over the other in terms of defence, and so have invested more than they should in the defence sector for various reasons. The article presents the relevance of conventional warfare in the Indo–Pak context and sheds light on the strategic context of South Asia which hosts two nuclear-armed rivals. It discusses the historical and near-contemporary use of conventional warfare by both nations in the pursuit of their political objectives. It draws attention to the growing Indian military modernization in its conventional arsenal, especially by the induction of the Russian-built T-90S tank and S-400 missile system, French-built Rafale fighter jet and aircraft carrier. It also discusses low-observable instruments such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The article focuses on the tactical, operational, as well as strategic implications of such advanced hardware on the Armed Forces of Pakistan. The world cannot afford a nuclear war and that too between heavily populated immediate rivals. Owing to this, both are investing more and more in modern conventional warfare by developing and advancing their defence systems, weapons, strategies and other related warfare – which the world must not ignore. This article enunciates how India getting its hands on the Russian T-90S, S-400 Missile System, Rafale Aircraft and INS Vikramadtiya has pushed Pakistan into a state of immense concern over its security and its quest for meeting this looming threat. This article also discusses the historical travelogue of advancements and investment made in the purchasing of the modern conventional warfare equipment both by India and Pakistan.
战争自古以来就在这里,并受到各种文明的影响和修改;由于内部和外部冲突和挑战的需要。每个国家都从地理、邻国的威胁、国内环境和经济状况等因素来看待战争。本文讨论并强调了对现代常规战争发展的总体追求,特别是在南亚两个拥有核武器的国家——印度和巴基斯坦这两个主要竞争对手的背景下。自独立以来,两国一直在努力在国防方面取得优势,因此出于各种原因,两国在国防领域的投资超过了应有的水平。本文介绍了常规战争在印巴背景下的相关性,并阐明了南亚的战略背景,南亚拥有两个拥有核武器的对手。它讨论了两国为追求其政治目标而使用常规战争的历史和近现代情况。它提请人们注意印度常规武器库日益增长的军事现代化,特别是俄罗斯制造的T-90S坦克和S-400导弹系统、法国制造的阵风战斗机和航空母舰的引入。它还讨论了低可观测仪器,如无人机。这篇文章重点讨论了这种先进硬件对巴基斯坦武装部队的战术、作战和战略影响。世界承受不起核战争,也承受不起人口稠密的直接对手之间的核战争。因此,双方都在通过发展和推进其防御系统、武器、战略和其他相关战争,越来越多地投资于现代常规战争——世界决不能忽视这一点。这篇文章阐述了印度如何获得俄罗斯的T-90S、S-400导弹系统、阵风飞机和INS Vikramadtiya,使巴基斯坦陷入对其安全和应对这一迫在眉睫的威胁的极度担忧。本文还讨论了印度和巴基斯坦在购买现代常规战争装备方面的进步和投资的历史游记。
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引用次数: 2
Obedient liberals? Mass attitudes in a monarchy enclave 顺从的自由主义者?君主制飞地中的大众态度
IF 0.7 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-13 DOI: 10.1177/20578911221118567
Arya Budi
Mass attitudes in a monarchy context are understudied relative to those in advanced and new democracies. By employing the case of a monarchy enclave in Yogyakarta province, Indonesia, this article tries to uncover mass attitudes towards democracy in such a setting. It is based on public opinion surveys conducted by PolGov Universitas Gadjah Mada with 2181 respondents. The study finds a strong existence of obedient liberals, i.e. people who believe in liberal views and embrace values of self-expression but are proud of having a non-democratic political system. While this distinguished attitude revisits Almond and Verba’s allegiant citizens, this article aligns with the revisionists of the civic culture model by arguing that a political regime, i.e. the monarchy enclave, helps pave the way for the presence and persistence of obedient-liberal mass attitudes. This distinct mass attitude in turn explains how the monarchy enclave has survived for decades.
相对于发达民主国家和新民主国家,君主制背景下的大众态度研究不足。本文以印度尼西亚日惹省的一个君主制飞地为例,试图揭示在这样一个背景下民众对民主的态度。它是基于PolGov Universitas Gadjah Mada对2181名受访者进行的民意调查得出的。该研究发现,顺从的自由主义者非常普遍,即那些相信自由主义观点并信奉自我表达价值观,但为拥有非民主政治制度而自豪的人。虽然这种杰出的态度重新审视了阿尔蒙德和韦尔巴忠诚的公民,但本文与公民文化模式的修正主义者一致,认为一个政治政权,即君主制飞地,有助于为顺从的自由主义大众态度的存在和持续铺平道路。这种独特的群众态度反过来解释了君主制飞地是如何生存了几十年的。
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引用次数: 0
Crowdsourcing dictatorship in Thailand 泰国的众包独裁
IF 0.7 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-07 DOI: 10.1177/20578911221119869
Aim Sinpeng
What explains popular support for military dictatorship? Existing literature on democratic breakdowns focuses on addressing support for democratic collapse but not subsequent authoritarian regime. This article explores pro-dictatorship sentiment before and during the military dictatorship in Thailand. It uses social media data to analyze support for the antidemocratic mobilization of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) and the subsequent military dictatorship, which lasted from 2014 to 2019. It argues that support for military dictatorship prior to and after regime installment was qualitatively different both in sentiment and type of support. Prior to the coup, pro-dictatorship support was unified by antigovernment sentiment, while following the coup pro-regime support was contingent upon policy preferences of different groups. These findings fill a gap in the literature on regime change, which tends to be focused on explaining support for democratic collapse and remains silent on this support in its aftermath. This study may present the first-ever evidence of pro-dictatorship support following a collapse of democracy.
如何解释民众对军事独裁的支持?现有的关于民主崩溃的文献关注的是对民主崩溃的支持,而不是随后的专制政权。本文探讨了泰国军事独裁之前和期间的亲独裁情绪。它使用社交媒体数据来分析对人民民主改革委员会(PDRC)的反民主动员以及随后的军事独裁的支持,该独裁从2014年持续到2019年。他们认为,在政权建立之前和之后,对军事独裁的支持在情绪和支持方式上都有质的不同。在政变之前,亲独裁的支持是由反政府情绪统一起来的,而在政变之后,亲政权的支持则取决于不同群体的政策偏好。这些发现填补了有关政权更迭文献的空白,这些文献往往侧重于解释对民主崩溃的支持,而对这种支持在其后果中保持沉默。这项研究可能是民主崩溃后首次出现支持独裁的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Building peace through tourism: The analysis of an ongoing Siachen Glacier dispute between India and Pakistan 通过旅游业建设和平:对印度和巴基斯坦之间正在进行的锡亚琛冰川争端的分析
IF 0.7 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-08-10 DOI: 10.1177/20578911221118730
Mehraj Ud Din Wani, Z. A. Dada, S. A. Shah
The current article aims to analyse the effectiveness of the conversion of the Siachen Glacier into a peace park on India–Pakistan relations. It further investigates how the peace park can build mutual understanding leading to cooperation and peace between the two countries. The article presents the conceptual framework for adequate supervision of the Siachen Glacier jointly by India and Pakistan to mitigate the existing tensions and conflicts through tourism within the context of the tourism–peace nexus and peace park concept. The Siachen Peace Park proposition offers an amazing way out for the policymakers to diffuse tensions between the military establishments of India and Pakistan. Both the nations have been losing the lives of their soldiers among the snow-capped peaks not due to any gunfight but mainly because of climatic extremities and frostbite. The suggestion of the Siachen Peace Park has been explicated with the help of a four-stage peace park conversion model conceived by the authors, which gives a conceptual understanding of the outcomes of this Peace Park for both countries.
本文旨在分析将锡亚琛冰川改建为和平公园对印巴关系的有效性。它进一步调查了和平公园如何建立相互理解,从而促进两国之间的合作与和平。本文提出了印度和巴基斯坦联合对锡亚琛冰川进行充分监督的概念框架,以在旅游-和平关系和和平公园概念的背景下,通过旅游业缓解现有的紧张局势和冲突。Siachen和平公园的提议为政策制定者提供了一条令人惊叹的出路,以缓解印度和巴基斯坦军事机构之间的紧张关系。两国都在白雪皑皑的山峰上失去了士兵的生命,这不是因为任何枪战,而是主要因为气候极端和冻伤。通过作者提出的四阶段和平公园转换模型,对暹罗和平公园的建议进行了阐述,从概念上理解了两国和平公园的成果。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Asian Journal of Comparative Politics
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