Pub Date : 2022-08-31DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2022.53.3.389
Yongho Kim, Lonnie Edge
This paper argues DPRK instability narratives that the Kim regime will collapse like the Soviet bloc are misguided and that US foreign policy founded upon them has at times led to a 'wait and see' approach sometimes referred to as strategic patience. One source of instability narratives, hereditary succession in North Korea, has occurred twice successfully, with leaders choosing their successor and being invested in their succession in a way that may not occur if the successor were not family. By comparing Kim Il Sung and Mao Ze Dong's succession attempts, this paper hypothesizes that the longer time a successor has to consolidate power prior to succession, herein referred to as the "power incubation period" (PIP), the more likely their regime's survival. This contributes to both the literature on authoritarian regime succession and foreign policy towards those regimes by demonstrating that the temporal aspect of regime consolidation takes place both before and after succession and that in cases of hereditary succession, the perceptional variant of family ties allows for a longer PIP prior to succession.
{"title":"Hereditary Succession in the DPRK: Temporal and Perceptional Variants in Regime Stability and their Foreign Policy Implications","authors":"Yongho Kim, Lonnie Edge","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2022.53.3.389","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2022.53.3.389","url":null,"abstract":"This paper argues DPRK instability narratives that the Kim regime will collapse like the Soviet bloc are misguided and that US foreign policy founded upon them has at times led to a 'wait and see' approach sometimes referred to as strategic patience. One source of instability narratives, hereditary succession in North Korea, has occurred twice successfully, with leaders choosing their successor and being invested in their succession in a way that may not occur if the successor were not family. By comparing Kim Il Sung and Mao Ze Dong's succession attempts, this paper hypothesizes that the longer time a successor has to consolidate power prior to succession, herein referred to as the \"power incubation period\" (PIP), the more likely their regime's survival. This contributes to both the literature on authoritarian regime succession and foreign policy towards those regimes by demonstrating that the temporal aspect of regime consolidation takes place both before and after succession and that in cases of hereditary succession, the perceptional variant of family ties allows for a longer PIP prior to succession.","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49354605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-30DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.323
Ena Yun, Sijeong Lim
While South Korea has been an active player in cultural diplomacy, there is a dearth of research on how cultural diplomacy events should be designed to maximize their effectiveness. We fill this gap by investigating what affects audience satisfaction with Korea's cultural diplomacy events. We utilize opinion surveys conducted from 2018 to 2020 with close to 2,000 respondents at 12 official cultural events in nine countries celebrating the anniversary of diplomatic ties. We find that local cultural expert involvement in the design of the event is associated with greater satisfaction when the audience has a high familiarity with Korean culture. We also find that introducing intercultural elements to the event can help improve event satisfaction among audience members with relatively low intercultural competence. Our analysis also confirms that audience members satisfied with these events hold a more favorable perception of Korea. The findings have important implications for cultural diplomacy practitioners.
{"title":"When Does Cultural Diplomacy Work?","authors":"Ena Yun, Sijeong Lim","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.323","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.323","url":null,"abstract":"While South Korea has been an active player in cultural diplomacy, there is a dearth of research on how cultural diplomacy events should be designed to maximize their effectiveness. We fill this gap by investigating what affects audience satisfaction with Korea's cultural diplomacy events. We utilize opinion surveys conducted from 2018 to 2020 with close to 2,000 respondents at 12 official cultural events in nine countries celebrating the anniversary of diplomatic ties. We find that local cultural expert involvement in the design of the event is associated with greater satisfaction when the audience has a high familiarity with Korean culture. We also find that introducing intercultural elements to the event can help improve event satisfaction among audience members with relatively low intercultural competence. Our analysis also confirms that audience members satisfied with these events hold a more favorable perception of Korea. The findings have important implications for cultural diplomacy practitioners.","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42731728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-30DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.197
Simdi Halil, Unal Tugce Danaci
This study aims to reveal the actual effect of FTAs on South Korea's foreign trade volumes of main export and import products separately. The econometric approach of our study follows the gravity model with a panel dataset of 47 countries that have FTA with South Korea for the years between 2001-2018 by using 2-digit HS (Harmonized System) classification for main export and import goods. The study reveals that even though signing the FTA affects positively the trade volume of South Korea and partner countries, the export of South Korea i s affected positively only f or t he b ase metals & articles products while the import of South Korea increases for mineral products, chemical or allied industries products and machinery & mechanical appliances after the FTAs entered into force. Our findings contribute to the literature by ascertaining a new estimation model and original empirical results for South Korean trade policy makers.
{"title":"Has South Korea Really Benefited from FTAs?","authors":"Simdi Halil, Unal Tugce Danaci","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.197","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to reveal the actual effect of FTAs on South Korea's foreign trade volumes of main export and import products separately. The econometric approach of our study follows the gravity model with a panel dataset of 47 countries that have FTA with South Korea for the years between 2001-2018 by using 2-digit HS (Harmonized System) classification for main export and import goods. The study reveals that even though signing the FTA affects positively the trade volume of South Korea and partner countries, the export of South Korea i s affected positively only f or t he b ase metals & articles products while the import of South Korea increases for mineral products, chemical or allied industries products and machinery & mechanical appliances after the FTAs entered into force. Our findings contribute to the literature by ascertaining a new estimation model and original empirical results for South Korean trade policy makers.","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48707534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-30DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.357
Hanna Kim, Won-ho Park
Previous studies on legislative voting behavior in the Korean National Assembly (KNA) were based on two theories: "The Best of Both Worlds" vs. "Contamination." However, both these theories have paid limited attention to the electorally vulnerable condition of legislators owing to voting behavior in South Korea. In this study, we propose a conditional mandate-divide theory to elucidate party defection voting behavior in KNA. According to our findings, Proportional Representatives (PR) are more likely to defect from party-line voting than Single Member District (SMD) members, although SMDs elected through a party primary are more likely to defect from party-line voting than other SMDs. Additionally, SMDs elected with the primary experience deviate from their party line more in Yeongnam province compared to other regions. Our findings suggest that legislators' voting behavior in the mixed-member system may vary depending on their prospects of re-election, essentially shaped by their incentive structure.
{"title":"Who Toes the Line? Mandate Type, Open-Primary Experience, and Party Defection in the Korean National Assem","authors":"Hanna Kim, Won-ho Park","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.357","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.357","url":null,"abstract":"Previous studies on legislative voting behavior in the Korean National Assembly (KNA) were based on two theories: \"The Best of Both Worlds\" vs. \"Contamination.\" However, both these theories have paid limited attention to the electorally vulnerable condition of legislators owing to voting behavior in South Korea. In this study, we propose a conditional mandate-divide theory to elucidate party defection voting behavior in KNA. \u0000According to our findings, Proportional Representatives (PR) are more likely to defect from party-line voting than Single Member District (SMD) members, although SMDs elected through a party primary are more likely to defect from party-line voting than other SMDs. Additionally, SMDs elected with the primary experience deviate from their party line more in Yeongnam province compared to other regions. Our findings suggest that legislators' voting behavior in the mixed-member system may vary depending on their prospects of re-election, essentially shaped by their incentive structure.","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69706972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-30DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.223
Kuyoun Chung
This article investigates the role of ideological difference in shaping threat perception and foreign policy preference in South Korea and the United States. Increasing ideological polarization has created different threat perceptions and foreign policy priorities within and between these allies, particularly regarding the geostrategic challenge of China. This research analyzes how strongly ideological differences are associated with threat perception, especially regarding China, and how such different ideologies lead to different foreign policy preferences in addressing those threats. To this end, this study analyzes survey data on the South Korean and American voters' understanding of the ROK-US alliance. Empirical analysis reveals threat perception varies by ideological difference in both countries. Data analysis also shows that both conservatives and progressives in South Korea view the US as a preferable foreign policy partner and support South Korea's joining the Quad, which contradicts the conventional understanding that progressives are not closer to the US. Meanwhile, conservative respondents both in South Korea and the US are pessimistic about the future coordination of the alliance as conservatives in South Korea prioritize North Korea's denuclearization, which might be in conflict with the US priority of countering China, while the conservatives in the US are concerned by South Korea's closer relationship with China. These results thereby necessitate the imperative of closer coordination to address pressing issues in the region but also a deeper investigation of the longer-lasting determinants of ideological differences in the two countries.
{"title":"Ideology, Threat Perception, and Foreign Policy Preference","authors":"Kuyoun Chung","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.223","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates the role of ideological difference in shaping threat perception and foreign policy preference in South Korea and the United States. Increasing ideological polarization has created different threat perceptions and foreign policy priorities within and between these allies, particularly regarding the geostrategic challenge of China. \u0000This research analyzes how strongly ideological differences are associated with threat perception, especially regarding China, and how such different ideologies lead to different foreign policy preferences in addressing those threats. To this end, this study analyzes survey data on the South Korean and American voters' understanding of the ROK-US alliance. Empirical analysis reveals threat perception varies by ideological difference in both countries. Data analysis also shows that both conservatives and progressives in South Korea view the US as a preferable foreign policy partner and support South Korea's joining the Quad, which contradicts the conventional understanding that progressives are not closer to the US. Meanwhile, conservative respondents both in South Korea and the US are pessimistic about the future coordination of the alliance as conservatives in South Korea prioritize North Korea's denuclearization, which might be in conflict with the US priority of countering China, while the conservatives in the US are concerned by South Korea's closer relationship with China. These results thereby necessitate the imperative of closer coordination to address pressing issues in the region but also a deeper investigation of the longer-lasting determinants of ideological differences in the two countries.","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45840512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-30DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.301
Kyung-woo Park, Seong-yong Park
This study explores the compositional characteristics of the hereditary regimes of North Korea, specifically regarding regime change through the transmission of traditional authority over three generations. The research questions of this study are as follows: How did North Korea successfully make the traditional hereditary regimes handed down to the son and grandson? Who were the political elites establishing and supporting these hereditary regimes? This study analyzes "on-the-spot guidance" articles reported in Rodong Sinmun, North Korea's official medium. According to the analysis, on-the-spot guidance seems to contribute to building and maintaining North Korea's hereditary regimes for three generations. In addition, it implies that the Kim Jong-un regime has a relatively low risk of collapse due to internal resistance, which has transpired for quite a while.
{"title":"Where and With Whom Did They Go?","authors":"Kyung-woo Park, Seong-yong Park","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.301","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores the compositional characteristics of the hereditary regimes of North Korea, specifically regarding regime change through the transmission of traditional authority over three generations. The research questions of this study are as follows: How did North Korea successfully make the traditional hereditary regimes handed down to the son and grandson? Who were the political elites establishing and supporting these hereditary regimes? This study analyzes \"on-the-spot guidance\" articles reported in Rodong Sinmun, North Korea's official medium. According to the analysis, on-the-spot guidance seems to contribute to building and maintaining North Korea's hereditary regimes for three generations. In addition, it implies that the Kim Jong-un regime has a relatively low risk of collapse due to internal resistance, which has transpired for quite a while.","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42054881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-30DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.247
R. Kelly
South Korean President Moon Jae-In's administration has sought sanctions relief for North Korea, but South Korea's allies have rejected those solicitations. This paper formalizes the allies' anti-relief impulses. It argues both against sanctions critiques and on behalf of sanctions. First, it disputes common sanction critiques, arguing that: 1) the humanitarian crisis in North Korea is the fault of the regime's choices, not sanctions; 2) sanctions have in fact been somewhat effective; and 3) North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is not a reformer. Second, this paper defends sanctions, because they: 1) express the international community's moral rejection of North Korean totalitarianism; 2) constrict North Korean economic growth in the strategic interest of South Korea and its partner democracies; 3) deter other states from following North Korea's nuclear and missile path; 4) give teeth to United Nations Security Council resolutions; and 5) punish North Korea for international law (UNSCR) violations.
{"title":"In Defense of North Korea Sanctions","authors":"R. Kelly","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.247","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.247","url":null,"abstract":"South Korean President Moon Jae-In's administration has sought sanctions relief for North Korea, but South Korea's allies have rejected those solicitations. This paper formalizes the allies' anti-relief impulses. It argues both against sanctions critiques and on behalf of sanctions. First, it disputes common sanction critiques, arguing that: 1) the humanitarian crisis in North Korea is the fault of the regime's choices, not sanctions; 2) sanctions have in fact been somewhat effective; and 3) North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is not a reformer. Second, this paper defends sanctions, because they: 1) express the international community's moral rejection of North Korean totalitarianism; 2) constrict North Korean economic growth in the strategic interest of South Korea and its partner democracies; 3) deter other states from following North Korea's nuclear and missile path; 4) give teeth to United Nations Security Council resolutions; and 5) punish North Korea for international law (UNSCR) violations.","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45639983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-30DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.277
Lei Yu, Sophia X. Sui
This paper finds that Pyongyang's nuclear issue is by no means China's "primary contradiction (top priority)" in its international relations. Chinese priority on the Korean peninsula is to keep stability and the status quo of a divided Korea rather than rush to find a resolution to the nuclear issue, which may result in a military imbalance on the Peninsula, or the collapse of the Pyongyang regime and hurt China's interest. To this end, China has adopted the strategy of making a delicate balance between pressuring and sustaining the Pyongyang regime. The paper concludes that from Chinese perspectives, a North Korea at the nuclear threshold contributes to counterbalancing US military presence in the region, maintaining a status quo of divided Koreas and helping China overcome US containment. China aspires to achieve three interconnected objectives with this strategy. This first is to sustain China's economic growth, the second to counterattack US containment, and the third to propel China's rise at the systemic (global) level.
{"title":"Balancing between \"Two Evils\"","authors":"Lei Yu, Sophia X. Sui","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2022.53.2.277","url":null,"abstract":"This paper finds that Pyongyang's nuclear issue is by no means China's \"primary contradiction (top priority)\" in its international relations. Chinese priority on the Korean peninsula is to keep stability and the status quo of a divided Korea rather than rush to find a resolution to the nuclear issue, which may result in a military imbalance on the Peninsula, or the collapse of the Pyongyang regime and hurt China's interest. To this end, China has adopted the strategy of making a delicate balance between pressuring and sustaining the Pyongyang regime. The paper concludes that from Chinese perspectives, a North Korea at the nuclear threshold contributes to counterbalancing US military presence in the region, maintaining a status quo of divided Koreas and helping China overcome US containment. China aspires to achieve three interconnected objectives with this strategy. This first is to sustain China's economic growth, the second to counterattack US containment, and the third to propel China's rise at the systemic (global) level.","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46786683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-28DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2022.53.1.25
Ruibin Xue, X. Xue
{"title":"From Conflict Avoidance to Peaceful Path: The US-DPRK Denuclearization Interaction under the Frame of Incomplete Information Game","authors":"Ruibin Xue, X. Xue","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2022.53.1.25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2022.53.1.25","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47754654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-28DOI: 10.29152/koiks.2022.53.1.161
Hyang-Loo Lee
{"title":"The Mobilizing Power of the President: South Korean Presidents Policy-making vis-à-vis North Korea","authors":"Hyang-Loo Lee","doi":"10.29152/koiks.2022.53.1.161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.29152/koiks.2022.53.1.161","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43950,"journal":{"name":"Korea Observer","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46124132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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