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‘Indian Stock Market Volatility’: A Study of Inter-linkages and Spillover Effects “印度股市波动性”:关联与溢出效应研究
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-21 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846321
Suparna Pal, A. Chattopadhyay
The article attempts to examine interdependence between Indian stock market and other domestic financial markets, namely, foreign exchange market, bullion market, money market, and also Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) trade and foreign stock markets comprising one regional stock market represented by Nikkei of Japan and other stock market for the rest of the world represented by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 of the USA. Attempts are also made to examine asymmetric volatility spillover, first, between the Indian stock market and other domestic financial markets and second, between the Indian stock market and global stock markets (represented by Nikkei and S&P 500) along with the foreign exchange market. To measure linear interdependence among multiple time series of financial markets multivariate Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition techniques are used. For estima-ting the volatility spillover among the aforesaid markets Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Multivriate-Threshold Autoregressive Condi-tional Heteroscedastic (DCC-MV-TARCH) (1, 1) model is applied on daily data for a quite long period of time from 01 April 1996 to 31 March 2012. The results of multivariate VAR analysis, Granger causality test, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response function estimation establish significant interdependence between domestic stock market and different other financial markets in India and abroad. The results of DCC-MV-TARCH (1, 1) model estimation further show signi- ficant asymmetric volatility spillover between the domestic stock market and the foreign exchange market and also from the domestic stock market to bullion market and changes in gross volume of FII trade. We also find (a) both way asymmetric volatility spillover between the domestic stock market and the Asian stock market and (b) its unidirectional movement from the world stock market to the domestic stock market. The results of the study may help market regulators in setting regulatory policies considering the inter-linkages and pattern of volatility spillovers across different financial markets. JEL Classification: G15, G17
本文试图考察印度股市与其他国内金融市场,即外汇市场、黄金市场、货币市场之间的相互依存关系,以及外国机构投资者(FII)贸易和外国股票市场,包括以日本日经为代表的一个地区股票市场和以美国标准普尔500指数为代表的世界其他地区的其他股票市场,印度股市和其他国内金融市场之间,其次是印度股市和全球股市(以日经和标准普尔500指数为代表)以及外汇市场之间。为了测量金融市场多个时间序列之间的线性相关性,使用了多变量向量自回归(VAR)分析、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术。为了估计上述市场之间的波动溢出,在1996年4月1日至2012年3月31日的相当长一段时间内,将动态条件相关多阈值自回归条件异方差(DCC-MV-TRACH)(1,1)模型应用于日常数据。多元VAR分析、Granger因果检验、方差分解分析和脉冲响应函数估计的结果表明,国内股市与印度和国外不同的其他金融市场之间存在显著的相互依赖性。DCC-MV-ARCH(1,1)模型估计的结果进一步表明,国内股市和外汇市场之间以及国内股市和黄金市场之间存在显著的不对称波动溢出,FII交易总量也发生了变化。我们还发现(a)国内股市和亚洲股市之间的双向不对称波动溢出,以及(b)其从世界股市到国内股市的单向运动。研究结果可能有助于市场监管机构制定监管政策,考虑到不同金融市场波动溢出的相互联系和模式。JEL分类:G15、G17
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引用次数: 19
Gauging the Impact of Payment System Innovations on Financial Intermediation: Novel Empirical Evidence from Indonesia 衡量支付系统创新对金融中介的影响:来自印度尼西亚的新经验证据
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-18 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846312
Alexander Lubis, Constantinos Alexiou, J. Nellis
In this article, the relationship between innovations in the payment systems and financial intermediation is explored. By focusing on excess reserves and currency demand we provide evidence on the extant transmission mechanism. In this direction, a generalised method of moments (GMM) and vector error correction model (VECM) techniques are applied to a data set collated for Indonesia. We find that financial intermediation is affected by currency demand while we observe a limited role of excess reserves affecting financial intermediation. Credit card payments are found to have a statistically significant effect on currency demand, whereas debit card payments only influence financial intermediation in the long run. In addition, the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) exerts an upward pressure on excess reserves. The findings are of great importance as they provide support to policies that favour payment migration to an electronic platform, particularly that of card-based payment systems. JEL Classification: E42, E58, N25, G21
本文探讨了支付系统创新与金融中介之间的关系。通过关注超额储备和货币需求,我们为现有的传导机制提供了证据。在这个方向上,将广义矩量法(GMM)和矢量误差修正模型(VECM)技术应用于印度尼西亚整理的数据集。我们发现,金融中介受到货币需求的影响,而超额准备金对金融中介的影响作用有限。信用卡支付被发现对货币需求有统计上显著的影响,而借记卡支付仅在长期内影响金融中介。此外,实时全额结算(RTGS)对超额准备金施加了上行压力。这些发现非常重要,因为它们为有利于支付向电子平台迁移的政策提供了支持,特别是基于卡的支付系统。JEL分类:E42, E58, N25, G21
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引用次数: 1
Does Board Composition Matter to Institutional Investors? 董事会构成对机构投资者重要吗?
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-18 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846354
Shashank Bansal, M. Thenmozhi
This study examines the resource dependency and signalling role of independent directors from the perspective of institutional investor’s and also investigates if the presence of large blockholder moderates the signalling effect. This study uses the quasi-natural experiment to examine this relationship. The difference-in-difference (DiD) analysis of 5,298 firm observations covering 618 National Stock Exchange (NSE) listed Indian firms for the period 2001–2011 provides empirical evidence that board composition does matter to institutional investors. We find that non-compliant firms who adopted the board independence requirement experience a significant increase in institutional ownership relative to previously compliant firms. We also find that institutional investors have invested more in family-owned firms during post-mandate period compared to government-, private- and foreign-owned firms. Overall, this study contributes to the existing literature on resource dependency theory and signalling theory and shows that the board independence acts as a signal to institutional investors and decreases the agency cost and cost of monitoring. JEL Codes: G3, G11, G34, G38, G23
本文从机构投资者的角度考察了独立董事的资源依赖和信号作用,并探讨了大股东的存在是否会调节信号作用。本研究采用准自然实验来检验这种关系。对2001年至2011年期间覆盖618家印度国家证券交易所(NSE)上市公司的5298家公司观察结果进行的差异分析(DiD)提供了经验证据,证明董事会构成对机构投资者确实很重要。我们发现,采用董事会独立性要求的不合规公司相对于之前合规的公司,机构所有权显著增加。我们还发现,与政府、私营和外资企业相比,机构投资者在授权后时期对家族企业的投资更多。总体而言,本研究对资源依赖理论和信号理论的现有文献有所贡献,表明董事会独立性对机构投资者起到了信号作用,降低了代理成本和监督成本。JEL代码:G3, G11, G34, G38, G23
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引用次数: 5
A VaR-based Downside Risk Analysis of Indian Equity Mutual Funds in the Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis Periods 基于VaR的印度股票共同基金在全球金融危机前后的下行风险分析
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-11 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846348
S. G. Deb
This article analyses downside risk of Indian equity mutual funds from 1999 to 2014 using a value at risk (VaR)-based approach. We use weekly return data of a sample of 349 equity mutual funds during the said period to estimate their weekly VaRs on a rolling basis using some parametric and non-parametric models. Moving average (MA), exponentially weighted MA and GARCH (1, 1) are the parametric models and historical simulation (HS) is the non-parametric model. We also carry out backtesting of the models using three popular approaches—two under the unconditional coverage approach, namely Jorion’s ‘Failure Rate’ approach and Kupiec’s proportion of ‘failures’ (POF) test, and one under the conditional coverage approach, namely the Christoffersen’s Independence test—to test the robustness of the VaR models. Our results show that Indian equity mutual funds exhibit considerable downside risk during the chosen period, in terms of the magnitude of the projected VaRs. Moreover, significant proportions of the funds ‘fail’ the predicted VaRs, particularly during times of crisis for some of the models, raising questions about their robustness in an investment setting in India. On the whole, both from failure proportion as well as backtesting perspective, the GARCH (1,1) seems to be the most robust of the models. JEL codes: G32, G15, G23
本文采用基于风险价值的方法分析了1999-2004年印度股票共同基金的下行风险。我们使用上述期间349只股票型共同基金样本的周回报数据,使用一些参数和非参数模型,在滚动的基础上估计其周VaR。移动平均(MA)、指数加权MA和GARCH(1,1)是参数模型,历史模拟(HS)是非参数模型。我们还使用三种流行的方法对模型进行了回溯测试——两种是在无条件覆盖方法下,即Jorion的“故障率”方法和Kupiec的“故障比例”(POF)测试,另一种是在条件覆盖方法中,即Christoffersen的独立性测试——以测试VaR模型的稳健性。我们的研究结果表明,就预测的增值税金额而言,印度股票共同基金在所选时期表现出相当大的下行风险。此外,很大一部分基金“未达到”预测的VaR,特别是在一些模型的危机时期,这引发了人们对其在印度投资环境中的稳健性的质疑。总的来说,无论是从失败比例还是从回溯测试的角度来看,GARCH(1,1)似乎是这些模型中最稳健的。JEL代码:G32、G15、G23
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引用次数: 4
Global Financial Crisis: Dynamics of Liquidity Risk in Emerging Asia 全球金融危机:新兴亚洲的流动性风险动态
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-11 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846323
Suraj Kumar, Krishna Prasanna
This study investigates the dynamic impact of global and regional liquidity along with volatility on the liquidity of emerging Asian equity markets. Further, we empirically disentangle the effects of volatility and liquidity. We find that the external liquidity factors have a higher impact on domestic liquidity as compared to volatility. The impact of global volatility shocks was witnessed only during the Global Financial Crisis. Global factors have a higher influence on developed markets such as Japan and Singapore, while regional factors have a higher influence on emerging markets. These results indicate that liquidity serves as the channel of regional integration in Asia. The findings of this study provide useful insights to cross-sections of stakeholders in the investment industry. JEL Classification: G15, F21, F36
本研究探讨全球及区域流动性及波动性对新兴亚洲股票市场流动性的动态影响。此外,我们从经验上理清了波动性和流动性的影响。我们发现,与波动性相比,外部流动性因素对国内流动性的影响更大。全球波动冲击的影响只有在全球金融危机期间才有所体现。全球因素对日本、新加坡等发达市场的影响较大,而区域因素对新兴市场的影响较大。这些结果表明,流动性是亚洲区域一体化的渠道。本研究的结果为投资行业的利益相关者提供了有用的见解。JEL分类:G15, F21, F36
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引用次数: 2
Structural Breaks in Volatility Transmission from Developed Markets to Major Asian Emerging Markets 从发达市场到亚洲主要新兴市场波动传导的结构性突破
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-10 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846308
Dilip Kumar
The study investigates the volatility transmission from developed markets (the United States [US], the United Kingdom [UK] and Japan) to the major Asian emerging markets (India, China, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia) during a period from 1996 to 2015. We make use of the opening, high, low and closing prices to estimate unbiased extreme value volatility estimator and implement heterogeneous autoregressive distributed lag (HAR-DL) framework to study the spillover effects. Based on time-varying spillover analysis, we observe sudden changes in the spillover effect during the periods of major crises. Initially, we find evidence of contagion during the period of global financial crisis of 2007–2009. However, after accounting for conditional heteroscedasticity, we observe a decline in the strength of volatility transmission from developed markets to the Asian emerging markets. Moreover, the initial evidence of contagion is not detectable anymore. We also test the economic significance of the findings by implementing three trading strategies based on risk averse and risk-taking investors that make use of the forecasted variance based on HAR-DL specification. Our findings indicate that substantial average annualised gains in returns can be earned based on the lagged volatility components of the USA and the UK. JEL Classification: C32, C58, G01, G15
该研究调查了1996年至2015年期间发达市场(美国、英国和日本)向亚洲主要新兴市场(印度、中国、马来西亚、泰国和印度尼西亚)的波动性传导。我们利用开盘价、高价、低价和收盘价来估计无偏极值波动率估计量,并实现了异质自回归分布滞后(HAR-DL)框架来研究溢出效应。基于时变溢出分析,我们观察到重大危机期间溢出效应的突然变化。最初,我们发现了2007-2009年全球金融危机期间传染的证据。然而,在考虑了条件异方差后,我们观察到从发达市场到亚洲新兴市场的波动性传导强度有所下降。此外,传染病的最初证据已无法检测。我们还通过实施三种基于风险厌恶和冒险投资者的交易策略来测试研究结果的经济意义,这三种策略利用了基于HAR-DL规范的预测方差。我们的研究结果表明,基于美国和英国的滞后波动性成分,可以获得实质性的平均年化收益。JEL分类:C32、C58、G01、G15
{"title":"Structural Breaks in Volatility Transmission from Developed Markets to Major Asian Emerging Markets","authors":"Dilip Kumar","doi":"10.1177/0972652719846308","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652719846308","url":null,"abstract":"The study investigates the volatility transmission from developed markets (the United States [US], the United Kingdom [UK] and Japan) to the major Asian emerging markets (India, China, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia) during a period from 1996 to 2015. We make use of the opening, high, low and closing prices to estimate unbiased extreme value volatility estimator and implement heterogeneous autoregressive distributed lag (HAR-DL) framework to study the spillover effects. Based on time-varying spillover analysis, we observe sudden changes in the spillover effect during the periods of major crises. Initially, we find evidence of contagion during the period of global financial crisis of 2007–2009. However, after accounting for conditional heteroscedasticity, we observe a decline in the strength of volatility transmission from developed markets to the Asian emerging markets. Moreover, the initial evidence of contagion is not detectable anymore. We also test the economic significance of the findings by implementing three trading strategies based on risk averse and risk-taking investors that make use of the forecasted variance based on HAR-DL specification. Our findings indicate that substantial average annualised gains in returns can be earned based on the lagged volatility components of the USA and the UK. JEL Classification: C32, C58, G01, G15","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652719846308","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46744375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
The Joint Dynamics of Liquidity and Volatility Across Small- and Large- index Indian Funds 印度小型和大型指数基金流动性和波动性的联合动态
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-07 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846318
K. Kulshrestha, S. Bhaduri
The article explores the relationship between volatility and liquidity, as there is a change in market capitalisation (cap). Using three regimes of volatility, identified by the threshold vector auto-regression method, the results show that volatility affects liquidity differently for the three volatility regimes during the two periods (crisis and post-crisis) of study. The results show that there is inconsistency in how volatility affects liquidity across the Indian large-, mid- and small-cap indices. JEL Classification: G1 G17
这篇文章探讨了波动性和流动性之间的关系,因为市值(cap)发生了变化。使用阈值向量自回归方法确定的三种波动率制度,结果表明,在研究的两个时期(危机和危机后),三种波动性制度对流动性的影响不同。结果表明,印度大盘股、中盘股和小盘股指数的波动性对流动性的影响存在不一致性。JEL分类:G1 G17
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引用次数: 2
Challenges and Opportunities Brought to the Chinese Economy by Brexit and the New US Administration 英国脱欧和美国新政府给中国经济带来的挑战和机遇
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-06-07 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846304
Lucía Morales, B. Andréosso‐O'callaghan
The impact of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as the 45th US president in the context of stock market reactions and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) within three key zones in ‘the Greater China Region’ (Hong Kong, Taiwan and China Mainland) are examined in this article. The chosen research period is from January 2014 to June 2017, and the EPU Index in the USA and the UK is used as a proxy to measure political uncertainty in two of the world major economies and how they impact on the Chinese stock market. The main contribution of the article can be found in the analysis of how stock market performance can be driven by policy-related uncertainty shocks in the international context. The results show that the stock markets in the ‘Greater China Region’ did not seem to react either to the uncertainty generated by Brexit or to the election of Donald Trump, implying that the Chinese stock markets appear to be quite resilient to the recent political events that have been disrupting the global economy. JEL codes: G58, G15, G18
本文在香港、台湾和中国大陆三个大中华区的股市反应和经济政策不确定性(EPU)背景下,研究了英国脱欧和唐纳德·特朗普当选美国第45任总统的影响。所选择的研究期为2014年1月至2017年6月,美国和英国的EPU指数被用作衡量世界两个主要经济体的政治不确定性及其对中国股市的影响的指标。本文的主要贡献可以在分析国际背景下与政策相关的不确定性冲击如何推动股市表现方面找到。结果显示,“大中华区”的股市似乎对英国脱欧或唐纳德·特朗普当选产生的不确定性没有反应,这意味着中国股市似乎对最近扰乱全球经济的政治事件有相当的弹性。JEL代码:G58、G15、G18
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引用次数: 2
Interlinkages Between USD–INR, EUR–INR, GBP–INR and JPY–INR Exchange Rate Markets and the Impact of RBI Intervention 美元-印度卢比、欧元-印度卢比,英镑-印度卢比和日元-印度卢比汇率市场之间的联系以及印度储备银行干预的影响
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-04-09 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719831562
Pami Dua, Ritu Suri
This article examines interlinkages between four major exchange rates, namely, USD–INR, EUR–INR, GBP–INR and JPY–INR in terms of returns and volatility spillovers using a vector autoregressive-multivariate GARCH–BEKK framework. In addition, we analyse the impact of RBI intervention on the returns, volatility and covariance of these exchange rates. The study finds significant bidirectional causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance between all four exchange rates. The estimation results suggest that RBI intervention in the form of net purchase of dollars leads to depreciation of INR vis-à-vis USD, EUR, GBP and JPY. Furthermore, we find that RBI intervention not only significantly affects the volatility of INR vis-à-vis USD, EUR and GBP but also explains significant amount of covariance between USD–INR and the other three exchange rates. JEL Classification: C32, G15, E58, F31
本文使用向量自回归-多元GARCH-BEKK框架研究了四种主要汇率(即美元-印度卢比、欧元-印度卢比、英镑-印度卢比和日元-印度卢比)在收益和波动溢出方面的相互联系。此外,我们分析了印度储备银行干预对这些汇率的回报、波动性和协方差的影响。研究发现,这四种汇率之间存在显著的双向均数因果关系和方差因果关系。估计结果表明,印度储备银行以净购买美元的形式进行干预,导致印度卢比对-à-vis美元、欧元、英镑和日元贬值。此外,我们发现印度储备银行的干预不仅显著影响了印度卢比对-à-vis美元、欧元和英镑的波动,而且还解释了美元-印度卢比与其他三种汇率之间的显著协方差。JEL分类:C32, G15, E58, F31
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引用次数: 4
Perspective on Underpricing of IPOs in Emerging Economies 新兴经济体ipo定价过低之透视
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-04-09 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719831556
L. Ramana
Pricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) has received considerable attention from the perspective of asymmetric information theories, among others. Specific aspects of emerging markets have been incorporated into models to explain the varying degrees of underpricing. Using three features that are deemed to be important for such economies, that is, principal–principal conflicts, disclosure norms and legitimacy of the top management, and two different classes of investors, institutional and retail, two frameworks have been designed to explain the expected levels of underpricing under various pair-wise combinations of these parameters. The state of the secondary market, which is an important determinant of the decision to go public, is incorporated into the framework. JEL Classifications: G3, G14, G15, G18
从信息不对称理论等的角度来看,首次公开募股(ipo)的定价受到了相当大的关注。新兴市场的特定方面已被纳入模型,以解释不同程度的定价过低。利用被认为对这些经济体很重要的三个特征,即principal-principal冲突、披露规范和高层管理人员的合法性,以及两种不同类别的投资者(机构投资者和散户投资者),设计了两个框架来解释在这些参数的各种配对组合下的预期定价过低水平。二级市场的状况是决定上市决定的重要因素,因此纳入了框架。JEL分类:G3, G14, G15, G18
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Journal of Emerging Market Finance
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