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Intraday Variability and Trading Volume: Evidence from National Stock Exchange 日内波动性和交易量:来自国家证券交易所的证据
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-07-09 DOI: 10.1177/0972652720930586
A. Sampath, A. Gopalaswamy
In this article, we investigate patterns in returns, volume and volatility and analyse the volume–return relationship using tick-by-tick data from the Indian equity market. Based on descriptive measures and regression frameworks, we document three important findings. First, we report unusually high volatility, trading volume and number of trades during the opening and closing minutes of the market depicting a ‘U’-shaped curve, implying high market activity during these periods. Second, while accounting for trading volume, we observe that volatility is not significantly different between mid-day period and evening period as compared to the normal ‘U’ curve. Finally, we document a significant positive relationship between intraday volume and price movements controlling for microstructure effects. The impact of positive returns on trading volume is higher than the impact of negative returns, implying the presence of return–volume asymmetry in the Indian market. JEL Codes: G12, G15
在本文中,我们研究了收益、交易量和波动性的模式,并使用印度股票市场的逐点数据分析了交易量-收益关系。基于描述性测量和回归框架,我们记录了三个重要的发现。首先,我们报告了异乎寻常的高波动性,市场开盘和收盘时的交易量和交易数量呈“U”形曲线,这意味着在这些时期市场活动频繁。其次,在考虑交易量的同时,我们观察到,与正常的“U”曲线相比,中午和晚上的波动率没有显著差异。最后,我们记录了控制微观结构效应的日内交易量和价格变动之间的显著正相关关系。正收益对交易量的影响大于负收益的影响,表明印度市场存在收益-交易量不对称。JEL代码:G12, G15
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引用次数: 2
Predicting Financial Health of Banks for Investor Guidance Using Machine Learning Algorithms 利用机器学习算法预测银行的财务健康状况,为投资者提供指导
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-05-14 DOI: 10.1177/0972652720913478
P. Viswanathan, S. Srinivasan, N. Hariharan
While earlier studies have focused excessively on bankruptcy prediction of banks, this study classifies banks based on their financial strength from the perspective of retail depositors who currently do not have an authentic guiding framework that helps them identify banks with higher risk profiles. Using machine learning techniques, we classify 44 Indian banks into distinct categories of financial health based on 12-year data from 2005 to 2017. We first use unsupervised learning to identify a pattern leading to logical groups in terms of financial health and then move to supervised learning for prediction. Using linear discriminant analysis (LDA), Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and Random Forest methods, we predict the cluster membership with the associated explanatory power alongside. We also compare our classification with the credit ratings awarded by rating agencies and highlight certain discrepancies that exist between what is predicted by our models and the credit rating awards. JEL Codes: C53; M10
虽然早期的研究过度关注银行的破产预测,但本研究从零售存款人的角度对银行进行了基于其财务实力的分类,零售存款人目前没有一个真正的指导框架来帮助他们识别高风险银行。我们利用机器学习技术,根据2005年至2017年的12年数据,将44家印度银行按财务健康状况分为不同的类别。我们首先使用无监督学习来识别导致财务健康逻辑组的模式,然后转向监督学习进行预测。利用线性判别分析(LDA)、分类与回归树(CART)和随机森林方法,我们预测了具有相关解释力的聚类隶属度。我们还将我们的分类与评级机构授予的信用评级进行了比较,并强调了我们的模型预测与信用评级奖励之间存在的某些差异。JEL代码:C53;M10
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引用次数: 9
Monetary Surprises and Global Financial Flows: A Case Study of Latin America 货币意外与全球资金流动:以拉丁美洲为例
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-05-09 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719890750
Eric Fischer
This article examines the effect of Federal Reserve announcements on global financial flows to Latin America since the Global Financial Crisis. The Federal Reserve announcements are classified using daily measures of expectations from a shadow rate term structure model as easing (unexpected), tightening (unexpected), easing (expected), and tightening (expected). This classification is then used for an event study on daily global financial flows classified by asset class (debt, equity), currency (all currencies, hard currency, local currency), and region (Latin America, Brazil, and Mexico). The results suggest easing (unexpected) and tightening (unexpected) announcements cause debt outflows but have no effect on equity flows to Latin America. Local currency debt flows to Latin America are more sensitive than the hard currency debt flows and Brazil is the country in Latin America that responds most to these announcements. JEL Classification: F32, G14, G15, N26
本文考察了自全球金融危机以来美联储公告对拉丁美洲全球资金流动的影响。美联储的公告使用影子利率期限结构模型中的每日预期指标分类为宽松(意外)、紧缩(意外),宽松(预期)和紧缩(预期)。然后,该分类用于按资产类别(债务、股权)、货币(所有货币、硬通货、当地货币)和地区(拉丁美洲、巴西和墨西哥)分类的每日全球金融流动的事件研究。结果表明,宽松(意外)和紧缩(意外)的宣布会导致债务外流,但对流向拉丁美洲的股票流动没有影响。流向拉丁美洲的本币债务流比硬通货债务流更敏感,巴西是拉丁美洲对这些公告反应最强烈的国家。JEL分类:F32、G14、G15、N26
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引用次数: 3
Foreign Direct Investment Determinants in Oil Exporting Countries: Revisiting the Role of Natural Resources 石油出口国的外国直接投资决定因素:重新审视自然资源的作用
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719880153
M. Eissa, M. Elgammal
This article explores the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in oil-dependent economies and revisits the role of natural resources in attracting FDI to countries of this kind. Panel data from the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have been employed, covering the period from 1990 to 2015. First, we investigate the FDI determinants during the entire sample period, and then run another investigation starting from the beginning of 2000, when the FDI in the GCC region increased substantially. The results show that there is a positive nexus between market growth, trade openness, inflation, infrastructure, oil price and FDI. Interestingly, oil reserves have a negative impact on FDI; this may be because countries with large reserves of oil like the GCC countries have enough financial resources to finance their economic development. This leads these governments to set up restrictions to protect their resources, thus reducing the amount of resource-seeking FDI. JEL Codes: E22, F21, F23, F43, O13
本文探讨了依赖石油的经济体中外国直接投资的决定因素,并重新审视了自然资源在吸引外国直接投资到这类国家中的作用。本文采用的面板数据来自海湾合作委员会(GCC)六国,即巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国,时间跨度为1990年至2015年。首先,我们调查了整个样本期内的FDI决定因素,然后从2000年初开始进行另一项调查,当时海湾合作委员会地区的FDI大幅增加。结果表明,市场增长、贸易开放、通货膨胀、基础设施、油价和FDI之间存在正相关关系。有趣的是,石油储量对外国直接投资有负面影响;这可能是因为像海湾合作委员会国家这样拥有大量石油储备的国家有足够的财政资源来资助其经济发展。这导致这些国家的政府设置限制以保护其资源,从而减少了资源寻求型FDI的数量。JEL代码:E22, F21, F23, F43, O13
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引用次数: 14
Housing Choice as a Function of Risks Confronting Low-income Households 住房选择是低收入家庭面临风险的函数
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719877475
A. Sahasranaman, V. Prasad, Aditi Balachander
The design of housing solutions for low-income populations has been one of the most pressing policy concerns in developing countries like India. In this work, we explore the effect of risks confronting low-income households—unemployment, health and mortality—on their choice of housing arrangements. We use simulations to study the evolution of long-term wealth of a stylised low-income household faced with these risks and find that, on average, rental housing significantly reduces the risk of undesirable wealth fluctuations over time. From a policy perspective, this means greater focus and incentives for the development of low-income rental markets using strategies such as provision of rental vouchers, rent-to-own models or long-term leases, in addition to the traditional ownership-based housing strategies. The development of housing solutions encompassing a range of rental and ownership models will be critical to ensuring the availability of safe and affordable housing for all urban residents. JEL Codes: C63, O18
为低收入人群设计住房解决方案一直是印度等发展中国家最紧迫的政策问题之一。在这项工作中,我们探讨了低收入家庭面临的风险——失业、健康和死亡——对他们选择住房安排的影响。我们使用模拟来研究面临这些风险的程式化低收入家庭的长期财富演变,并发现,平均而言,租赁住房显著降低了随着时间的推移出现不受欢迎的财富波动的风险。从政策角度来看,这意味着除了传统的以所有权为基础的住房战略外,还要更加重视和鼓励发展低收入租赁市场,使用诸如提供租赁凭证、租到拥有模式或长期租赁等战略。制定住房解决方案,包括一系列租赁和所有权模式,对于确保所有城市居民都能获得安全和负担得起的住房至关重要。JEL代码:C63, O18
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引用次数: 2
Has the Global Financial Crisis Changed the Market Response to Credit Ratings? Evidence from an Emerging Market 全球金融危机是否改变了市场对信用评级的反应?来自新兴市场的证据
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719877472
K. Krishnan, Sankarshan Basu, Ashok Thampy
This article analyses the differential market response to credit rating revisions in the pre- and post-global financial crisis (GFC) period using data from India. By reviewing the stock price reaction to the announcement of long-term rating changes during the period 1996–2015, the study finds evidence that the stock price reacted less to rating announcements after the GFC of 2008. However, the difference in the cumulative abnormal returns before the GFC and after the GFC is not statistically significant. JEL codes: G240, G010, G140
本文利用印度的数据分析了全球金融危机前后市场对信用评级修订的不同反应。通过回顾1996-2015年期间股价对长期评级变动公告的反应,研究发现有证据表明,2008年全球金融危机后,股价对评级公告的反应较小。然而,GFC之前和之后的累积异常回报的差异在统计学上并不显著。JEL代码:G240、G010、G140
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引用次数: 4
Sectoral Loan Portfolio Concentration and Bank Stability: Evidence from an Emerging Economy 行业贷款组合集中度与银行稳定性:来自新兴经济体的证据
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719878597
B. Kusi, Lydia Dzidzor Adzobu, Alex Kwame Abasi, Kwadjo Ansah-Adu
In this study, the effect of sectoral loan portfolio concentration on bank stability is investigated in the Ghanaian banking sector between 2007 and 2014. Specifically, we investigate the linearity and non-linearity effects of sectoral loan concentration on bank stability given the limited exploration of this nexus. Employing a two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) robust random and fixed effects panel models of 30 banks, the study provides evidence showing that sectoral loan concentration weakens the stability of banks. This confirms the concentration-fragility hypothesis and the diversification theory of traditional banking but may promote bank stability beyond a certain threshold point. This implies that bank sectoral loan concentrate has a direct non-linear U-shape effect on bank stability in Ghana. We argue that although sectoral loan concentration may weaken stability of banks in the short run, it may however enhance the stability of banks in the long run through prolonged expert knowledge, experience and understanding of sectors. From these findings, policymakers, regulators and bank managers must not only develop and design policies and regulations that prohibit sectoral loan concentration but should also incorporate plans and policies that encourage banks to develop core competence and competitive advantage to take advantage of advancing bank stability through sectoral loan concentration. JEL Codes: G10; G18; G41
在本研究中,研究了2007年至2014年间加纳银行业部门贷款组合集中度对银行稳定性的影响。具体而言,我们研究了部门贷款集中度对银行稳定性的线性和非线性影响,因为这种关系的探索有限。采用两步广义矩量法(GMM)对30家银行的稳健随机和固定效应面板模型,研究提供了证据表明,部门贷款集中度削弱了银行的稳定性。这证实了传统银行业的集中度-脆弱性假说和多元化理论,但可能会促进银行稳定性超过一定的阈值点。这意味着银行部门贷款集中度对加纳银行稳定性具有直接的非线性u型影响。我们认为,尽管行业贷款集中度可能在短期内削弱银行的稳定性,但通过长期的专家知识、经验和对行业的理解,它可能在长期内增强银行的稳定性。根据这些发现,政策制定者、监管机构和银行管理人员不仅必须制定和设计禁止部门贷款集中的政策和法规,而且还应纳入鼓励银行发展核心能力和竞争优势的计划和政策,以利用通过部门贷款集中促进银行稳定性的优势。JEL代码:G10;G18;G41
{"title":"Sectoral Loan Portfolio Concentration and Bank Stability: Evidence from an Emerging Economy","authors":"B. Kusi, Lydia Dzidzor Adzobu, Alex Kwame Abasi, Kwadjo Ansah-Adu","doi":"10.1177/0972652719878597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652719878597","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, the effect of sectoral loan portfolio concentration on bank stability is investigated in the Ghanaian banking sector between 2007 and 2014. Specifically, we investigate the linearity and non-linearity effects of sectoral loan concentration on bank stability given the limited exploration of this nexus. Employing a two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) robust random and fixed effects panel models of 30 banks, the study provides evidence showing that sectoral loan concentration weakens the stability of banks. This confirms the concentration-fragility hypothesis and the diversification theory of traditional banking but may promote bank stability beyond a certain threshold point. This implies that bank sectoral loan concentrate has a direct non-linear U-shape effect on bank stability in Ghana. We argue that although sectoral loan concentration may weaken stability of banks in the short run, it may however enhance the stability of banks in the long run through prolonged expert knowledge, experience and understanding of sectors. From these findings, policymakers, regulators and bank managers must not only develop and design policies and regulations that prohibit sectoral loan concentration but should also incorporate plans and policies that encourage banks to develop core competence and competitive advantage to take advantage of advancing bank stability through sectoral loan concentration. JEL Codes: G10; G18; G41","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652719878597","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65337889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
The Independence of Central Banks, Political Institutional Quality and Financial Sector Development in Africa 非洲中央银行独立性、政治体制质量和金融部门发展
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2020-01-14 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719877474
A. Agoba, J. Abor, K. A. Osei, J. Sa-Aadu
Central Bank Independence (CBI) as a mechanism for achieving lower inflation and effective regulation and supervision of the financial sector should promote financial sector development. Though there is not much difference in CBI legal provisions, it seems to be more effective in developed countries than in African countries. There are suggestions that this could be due to differences in political institutional quality. Using panel data from 1970 to 2012, we find that CBI does not promote financial development in Africa. The impact of CBI is dependent on the level of development of a country. CBI promotes financial development more in countries with strong political institutions. JEL codes: E02; E44; E58
中央银行独立性(CBI)作为一种降低通货膨胀和有效监管金融部门的机制,应促进金融部门的发展。尽管CBI的法律条款没有太大区别,但它在发达国家似乎比在非洲国家更有效。有人认为,这可能是由于政治制度质量的差异。利用1970年至2012年的面板数据,我们发现CBI并没有促进非洲的金融发展。CBI的影响取决于一个国家的发展水平。CBI在拥有强大政治机构的国家更多地促进金融发展。JEL代码:E02;E44;E58
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引用次数: 8
Information Linkages Among BRICS Countries: Empirical Evidence from Implied Volatility Indices 金砖国家之间的信息联系:隐含波动率指数的经验证据
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-08-21 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846315
G. Sharma, P. Kayal, P. Pandey
In this article, we examine the information linkages of the forward-looking measure of volatility, the volatility index (VIX), for underlying equity market indices of BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. A study of the information transmission process confirmed a long-run equilibrium relationship between pairs of BRICS countries. The multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model revealed strong intertemporal linkages between sample VIX. Return and volatility spill-over matrix show the varying degree of connectedness of BRICS VIX across the study period. This study contributes to the international finance literature and has important implications for investors, portfolio managers, policymakers and academia. JEL Classification: C58, F36, G11, G14, G15
在这篇文章中,我们考察了金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)潜在股票市场指数的波动性前瞻性衡量指标波动率指数(VIX)的信息联系。对信息传递过程的研究证实了金砖国家之间的长期均衡关系。多元广义自回归条件异方差(MGARCH)模型揭示了样本VIX之间的强跨期联系。收益率和波动率溢出矩阵显示了研究期间金砖国家波动率指数的不同程度的连通性。这项研究为国际金融文献做出了贡献,对投资者、投资组合经理、政策制定者和学术界都有重要意义。JEL分类:C58、F36、G11、G14、G15
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引用次数: 10
Pecking Order Test at Varying Debt Levels: A Comparative Study of Indian and Chinese Firms 不同债务水平下的啄食顺序测试:印度和中国企业的比较研究
IF 1.5 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846317
Vandana Bhama, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav
The present study tests the pecking order of firms at varying debt levels. The findings indicate that deficit firms at low debt levels raise significant amounts of debt, thus indicating the adherence to the pecking order theory. Deficit firms (from both countries) at exceptionally high debt levels do not adjust their capital structure by issuing less debt. In a surplus situation, Chinese firms at very high level redeem the substantial debt because of the dominance of short-term debt in their capital structure. In contrast, Indian surplus firms hesitate to redeem more debt if their existing debt levels are extremely high. JEL Classification: Q14, G32
本研究测试了处于不同债务水平的公司的等级顺序。研究结果表明,处于低债务水平的赤字公司会增加大量债务,从而表明其遵守了等级制度理论。处于异常高债务水平的赤字公司(来自两国)不会通过发行更少的债务来调整其资本结构。在盈余情况下,由于短期债务在其资本结构中占主导地位,处于非常高水平的中国公司会赎回大量债务。相比之下,如果印度盈余公司的现有债务水平极高,它们会犹豫是否赎回更多债务。JEL分类:Q14、G32
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Journal of Emerging Market Finance
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