Pub Date : 2020-04-01DOI: 10.1177/0972652719880153
M. Eissa, M. Elgammal
This article explores the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in oil-dependent economies and revisits the role of natural resources in attracting FDI to countries of this kind. Panel data from the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have been employed, covering the period from 1990 to 2015. First, we investigate the FDI determinants during the entire sample period, and then run another investigation starting from the beginning of 2000, when the FDI in the GCC region increased substantially. The results show that there is a positive nexus between market growth, trade openness, inflation, infrastructure, oil price and FDI. Interestingly, oil reserves have a negative impact on FDI; this may be because countries with large reserves of oil like the GCC countries have enough financial resources to finance their economic development. This leads these governments to set up restrictions to protect their resources, thus reducing the amount of resource-seeking FDI. JEL Codes: E22, F21, F23, F43, O13
{"title":"Foreign Direct Investment Determinants in Oil Exporting Countries: Revisiting the Role of Natural Resources","authors":"M. Eissa, M. Elgammal","doi":"10.1177/0972652719880153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652719880153","url":null,"abstract":"This article explores the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in oil-dependent economies and revisits the role of natural resources in attracting FDI to countries of this kind. Panel data from the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have been employed, covering the period from 1990 to 2015. First, we investigate the FDI determinants during the entire sample period, and then run another investigation starting from the beginning of 2000, when the FDI in the GCC region increased substantially. The results show that there is a positive nexus between market growth, trade openness, inflation, infrastructure, oil price and FDI. Interestingly, oil reserves have a negative impact on FDI; this may be because countries with large reserves of oil like the GCC countries have enough financial resources to finance their economic development. This leads these governments to set up restrictions to protect their resources, thus reducing the amount of resource-seeking FDI. JEL Codes: E22, F21, F23, F43, O13","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"19 1","pages":"33 - 65"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652719880153","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43233587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-01DOI: 10.1177/0972652719877472
K. Krishnan, Sankarshan Basu, Ashok Thampy
This article analyses the differential market response to credit rating revisions in the pre- and post-global financial crisis (GFC) period using data from India. By reviewing the stock price reaction to the announcement of long-term rating changes during the period 1996–2015, the study finds evidence that the stock price reacted less to rating announcements after the GFC of 2008. However, the difference in the cumulative abnormal returns before the GFC and after the GFC is not statistically significant. JEL codes: G240, G010, G140
{"title":"Has the Global Financial Crisis Changed the Market Response to Credit Ratings? Evidence from an Emerging Market","authors":"K. Krishnan, Sankarshan Basu, Ashok Thampy","doi":"10.1177/0972652719877472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652719877472","url":null,"abstract":"This article analyses the differential market response to credit rating revisions in the pre- and post-global financial crisis (GFC) period using data from India. By reviewing the stock price reaction to the announcement of long-term rating changes during the period 1996–2015, the study finds evidence that the stock price reacted less to rating announcements after the GFC of 2008. However, the difference in the cumulative abnormal returns before the GFC and after the GFC is not statistically significant. JEL codes: G240, G010, G140","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"19 1","pages":"32 - 7"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652719877472","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41680719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-01DOI: 10.1177/0972652719878597
B. Kusi, Lydia Dzidzor Adzobu, Alex Kwame Abasi, Kwadjo Ansah-Adu
In this study, the effect of sectoral loan portfolio concentration on bank stability is investigated in the Ghanaian banking sector between 2007 and 2014. Specifically, we investigate the linearity and non-linearity effects of sectoral loan concentration on bank stability given the limited exploration of this nexus. Employing a two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) robust random and fixed effects panel models of 30 banks, the study provides evidence showing that sectoral loan concentration weakens the stability of banks. This confirms the concentration-fragility hypothesis and the diversification theory of traditional banking but may promote bank stability beyond a certain threshold point. This implies that bank sectoral loan concentrate has a direct non-linear U-shape effect on bank stability in Ghana. We argue that although sectoral loan concentration may weaken stability of banks in the short run, it may however enhance the stability of banks in the long run through prolonged expert knowledge, experience and understanding of sectors. From these findings, policymakers, regulators and bank managers must not only develop and design policies and regulations that prohibit sectoral loan concentration but should also incorporate plans and policies that encourage banks to develop core competence and competitive advantage to take advantage of advancing bank stability through sectoral loan concentration. JEL Codes: G10; G18; G41
{"title":"Sectoral Loan Portfolio Concentration and Bank Stability: Evidence from an Emerging Economy","authors":"B. Kusi, Lydia Dzidzor Adzobu, Alex Kwame Abasi, Kwadjo Ansah-Adu","doi":"10.1177/0972652719878597","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652719878597","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, the effect of sectoral loan portfolio concentration on bank stability is investigated in the Ghanaian banking sector between 2007 and 2014. Specifically, we investigate the linearity and non-linearity effects of sectoral loan concentration on bank stability given the limited exploration of this nexus. Employing a two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) robust random and fixed effects panel models of 30 banks, the study provides evidence showing that sectoral loan concentration weakens the stability of banks. This confirms the concentration-fragility hypothesis and the diversification theory of traditional banking but may promote bank stability beyond a certain threshold point. This implies that bank sectoral loan concentrate has a direct non-linear U-shape effect on bank stability in Ghana. We argue that although sectoral loan concentration may weaken stability of banks in the short run, it may however enhance the stability of banks in the long run through prolonged expert knowledge, experience and understanding of sectors. From these findings, policymakers, regulators and bank managers must not only develop and design policies and regulations that prohibit sectoral loan concentration but should also incorporate plans and policies that encourage banks to develop core competence and competitive advantage to take advantage of advancing bank stability through sectoral loan concentration. JEL Codes: G10; G18; G41","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"19 1","pages":"66 - 99"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652719878597","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65337889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-14DOI: 10.1177/0972652719877474
A. Agoba, J. Abor, K. A. Osei, J. Sa-Aadu
Central Bank Independence (CBI) as a mechanism for achieving lower inflation and effective regulation and supervision of the financial sector should promote financial sector development. Though there is not much difference in CBI legal provisions, it seems to be more effective in developed countries than in African countries. There are suggestions that this could be due to differences in political institutional quality. Using panel data from 1970 to 2012, we find that CBI does not promote financial development in Africa. The impact of CBI is dependent on the level of development of a country. CBI promotes financial development more in countries with strong political institutions. JEL codes: E02; E44; E58
{"title":"The Independence of Central Banks, Political Institutional Quality and Financial Sector Development in Africa","authors":"A. Agoba, J. Abor, K. A. Osei, J. Sa-Aadu","doi":"10.1177/0972652719877474","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652719877474","url":null,"abstract":"Central Bank Independence (CBI) as a mechanism for achieving lower inflation and effective regulation and supervision of the financial sector should promote financial sector development. Though there is not much difference in CBI legal provisions, it seems to be more effective in developed countries than in African countries. There are suggestions that this could be due to differences in political institutional quality. Using panel data from 1970 to 2012, we find that CBI does not promote financial development in Africa. The impact of CBI is dependent on the level of development of a country. CBI promotes financial development more in countries with strong political institutions. JEL codes: E02; E44; E58","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"19 1","pages":"154 - 188"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652719877474","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44305872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-21DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846315
G. Sharma, P. Kayal, P. Pandey
In this article, we examine the information linkages of the forward-looking measure of volatility, the volatility index (VIX), for underlying equity market indices of BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. A study of the information transmission process confirmed a long-run equilibrium relationship between pairs of BRICS countries. The multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model revealed strong intertemporal linkages between sample VIX. Return and volatility spill-over matrix show the varying degree of connectedness of BRICS VIX across the study period. This study contributes to the international finance literature and has important implications for investors, portfolio managers, policymakers and academia. JEL Classification: C58, F36, G11, G14, G15
{"title":"Information Linkages Among BRICS Countries: Empirical Evidence from Implied Volatility Indices","authors":"G. Sharma, P. Kayal, P. Pandey","doi":"10.1177/0972652719846315","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652719846315","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we examine the information linkages of the forward-looking measure of volatility, the volatility index (VIX), for underlying equity market indices of BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. A study of the information transmission process confirmed a long-run equilibrium relationship between pairs of BRICS countries. The multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model revealed strong intertemporal linkages between sample VIX. Return and volatility spill-over matrix show the varying degree of connectedness of BRICS VIX across the study period. This study contributes to the international finance literature and has important implications for investors, portfolio managers, policymakers and academia. JEL Classification: C58, F36, G11, G14, G15","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"18 1","pages":"263 - 289"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652719846315","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42242121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-08-01DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846317
Vandana Bhama, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav
The present study tests the pecking order of firms at varying debt levels. The findings indicate that deficit firms at low debt levels raise significant amounts of debt, thus indicating the adherence to the pecking order theory. Deficit firms (from both countries) at exceptionally high debt levels do not adjust their capital structure by issuing less debt. In a surplus situation, Chinese firms at very high level redeem the substantial debt because of the dominance of short-term debt in their capital structure. In contrast, Indian surplus firms hesitate to redeem more debt if their existing debt levels are extremely high. JEL Classification: Q14, G32
{"title":"Pecking Order Test at Varying Debt Levels: A Comparative Study of Indian and Chinese Firms","authors":"Vandana Bhama, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav","doi":"10.1177/0972652719846317","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652719846317","url":null,"abstract":"The present study tests the pecking order of firms at varying debt levels. The findings indicate that deficit firms at low debt levels raise significant amounts of debt, thus indicating the adherence to the pecking order theory. Deficit firms (from both countries) at exceptionally high debt levels do not adjust their capital structure by issuing less debt. In a surplus situation, Chinese firms at very high level redeem the substantial debt because of the dominance of short-term debt in their capital structure. In contrast, Indian surplus firms hesitate to redeem more debt if their existing debt levels are extremely high. JEL Classification: Q14, G32","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"18 1","pages":"237 - 261"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652719846317","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44267013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-21DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846321
Suparna Pal, A. Chattopadhyay
The article attempts to examine interdependence between Indian stock market and other domestic financial markets, namely, foreign exchange market, bullion market, money market, and also Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) trade and foreign stock markets comprising one regional stock market represented by Nikkei of Japan and other stock market for the rest of the world represented by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 of the USA. Attempts are also made to examine asymmetric volatility spillover, first, between the Indian stock market and other domestic financial markets and second, between the Indian stock market and global stock markets (represented by Nikkei and S&P 500) along with the foreign exchange market. To measure linear interdependence among multiple time series of financial markets multivariate Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition techniques are used. For estima-ting the volatility spillover among the aforesaid markets Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Multivriate-Threshold Autoregressive Condi-tional Heteroscedastic (DCC-MV-TARCH) (1, 1) model is applied on daily data for a quite long period of time from 01 April 1996 to 31 March 2012. The results of multivariate VAR analysis, Granger causality test, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response function estimation establish significant interdependence between domestic stock market and different other financial markets in India and abroad. The results of DCC-MV-TARCH (1, 1) model estimation further show signi- ficant asymmetric volatility spillover between the domestic stock market and the foreign exchange market and also from the domestic stock market to bullion market and changes in gross volume of FII trade. We also find (a) both way asymmetric volatility spillover between the domestic stock market and the Asian stock market and (b) its unidirectional movement from the world stock market to the domestic stock market. The results of the study may help market regulators in setting regulatory policies considering the inter-linkages and pattern of volatility spillovers across different financial markets. JEL Classification: G15, G17
{"title":"‘Indian Stock Market Volatility’: A Study of Inter-linkages and Spillover Effects","authors":"Suparna Pal, A. Chattopadhyay","doi":"10.1177/0972652719846321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652719846321","url":null,"abstract":"The article attempts to examine interdependence between Indian stock market and other domestic financial markets, namely, foreign exchange market, bullion market, money market, and also Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) trade and foreign stock markets comprising one regional stock market represented by Nikkei of Japan and other stock market for the rest of the world represented by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 of the USA. Attempts are also made to examine asymmetric volatility spillover, first, between the Indian stock market and other domestic financial markets and second, between the Indian stock market and global stock markets (represented by Nikkei and S&P 500) along with the foreign exchange market. To measure linear interdependence among multiple time series of financial markets multivariate Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition techniques are used. For estima-ting the volatility spillover among the aforesaid markets Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Multivriate-Threshold Autoregressive Condi-tional Heteroscedastic (DCC-MV-TARCH) (1, 1) model is applied on daily data for a quite long period of time from 01 April 1996 to 31 March 2012. The results of multivariate VAR analysis, Granger causality test, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response function estimation establish significant interdependence between domestic stock market and different other financial markets in India and abroad. The results of DCC-MV-TARCH (1, 1) model estimation further show signi- ficant asymmetric volatility spillover between the domestic stock market and the foreign exchange market and also from the domestic stock market to bullion market and changes in gross volume of FII trade. We also find (a) both way asymmetric volatility spillover between the domestic stock market and the Asian stock market and (b) its unidirectional movement from the world stock market to the domestic stock market. The results of the study may help market regulators in setting regulatory policies considering the inter-linkages and pattern of volatility spillovers across different financial markets. JEL Classification: G15, G17","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"18 1","pages":"S183 - S212"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652719846321","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43480368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-18DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846312
Alexander Lubis, Constantinos Alexiou, J. Nellis
In this article, the relationship between innovations in the payment systems and financial intermediation is explored. By focusing on excess reserves and currency demand we provide evidence on the extant transmission mechanism. In this direction, a generalised method of moments (GMM) and vector error correction model (VECM) techniques are applied to a data set collated for Indonesia. We find that financial intermediation is affected by currency demand while we observe a limited role of excess reserves affecting financial intermediation. Credit card payments are found to have a statistically significant effect on currency demand, whereas debit card payments only influence financial intermediation in the long run. In addition, the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) exerts an upward pressure on excess reserves. The findings are of great importance as they provide support to policies that favour payment migration to an electronic platform, particularly that of card-based payment systems. JEL Classification: E42, E58, N25, G21
{"title":"Gauging the Impact of Payment System Innovations on Financial Intermediation: Novel Empirical Evidence from Indonesia","authors":"Alexander Lubis, Constantinos Alexiou, J. Nellis","doi":"10.1177/0972652719846312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652719846312","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, the relationship between innovations in the payment systems and financial intermediation is explored. By focusing on excess reserves and currency demand we provide evidence on the extant transmission mechanism. In this direction, a generalised method of moments (GMM) and vector error correction model (VECM) techniques are applied to a data set collated for Indonesia. We find that financial intermediation is affected by currency demand while we observe a limited role of excess reserves affecting financial intermediation. Credit card payments are found to have a statistically significant effect on currency demand, whereas debit card payments only influence financial intermediation in the long run. In addition, the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) exerts an upward pressure on excess reserves. The findings are of great importance as they provide support to policies that favour payment migration to an electronic platform, particularly that of card-based payment systems. JEL Classification: E42, E58, N25, G21","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"18 1","pages":"290 - 338"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652719846312","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41690691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-18DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846354
Shashank Bansal, M. Thenmozhi
This study examines the resource dependency and signalling role of independent directors from the perspective of institutional investor’s and also investigates if the presence of large blockholder moderates the signalling effect. This study uses the quasi-natural experiment to examine this relationship. The difference-in-difference (DiD) analysis of 5,298 firm observations covering 618 National Stock Exchange (NSE) listed Indian firms for the period 2001–2011 provides empirical evidence that board composition does matter to institutional investors. We find that non-compliant firms who adopted the board independence requirement experience a significant increase in institutional ownership relative to previously compliant firms. We also find that institutional investors have invested more in family-owned firms during post-mandate period compared to government-, private- and foreign-owned firms. Overall, this study contributes to the existing literature on resource dependency theory and signalling theory and shows that the board independence acts as a signal to institutional investors and decreases the agency cost and cost of monitoring. JEL Codes: G3, G11, G34, G38, G23
{"title":"Does Board Composition Matter to Institutional Investors?","authors":"Shashank Bansal, M. Thenmozhi","doi":"10.1177/0972652719846354","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652719846354","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the resource dependency and signalling role of independent directors from the perspective of institutional investor’s and also investigates if the presence of large blockholder moderates the signalling effect. This study uses the quasi-natural experiment to examine this relationship. The difference-in-difference (DiD) analysis of 5,298 firm observations covering 618 National Stock Exchange (NSE) listed Indian firms for the period 2001–2011 provides empirical evidence that board composition does matter to institutional investors. We find that non-compliant firms who adopted the board independence requirement experience a significant increase in institutional ownership relative to previously compliant firms. We also find that institutional investors have invested more in family-owned firms during post-mandate period compared to government-, private- and foreign-owned firms. Overall, this study contributes to the existing literature on resource dependency theory and signalling theory and shows that the board independence acts as a signal to institutional investors and decreases the agency cost and cost of monitoring. JEL Codes: G3, G11, G34, G38, G23","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"18 1","pages":"S238 - S266"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652719846354","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48789937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-11DOI: 10.1177/0972652719846348
S. G. Deb
This article analyses downside risk of Indian equity mutual funds from 1999 to 2014 using a value at risk (VaR)-based approach. We use weekly return data of a sample of 349 equity mutual funds during the said period to estimate their weekly VaRs on a rolling basis using some parametric and non-parametric models. Moving average (MA), exponentially weighted MA and GARCH (1, 1) are the parametric models and historical simulation (HS) is the non-parametric model. We also carry out backtesting of the models using three popular approaches—two under the unconditional coverage approach, namely Jorion’s ‘Failure Rate’ approach and Kupiec’s proportion of ‘failures’ (POF) test, and one under the conditional coverage approach, namely the Christoffersen’s Independence test—to test the robustness of the VaR models. Our results show that Indian equity mutual funds exhibit considerable downside risk during the chosen period, in terms of the magnitude of the projected VaRs. Moreover, significant proportions of the funds ‘fail’ the predicted VaRs, particularly during times of crisis for some of the models, raising questions about their robustness in an investment setting in India. On the whole, both from failure proportion as well as backtesting perspective, the GARCH (1,1) seems to be the most robust of the models. JEL codes: G32, G15, G23
{"title":"A VaR-based Downside Risk Analysis of Indian Equity Mutual Funds in the Pre- and Post-global Financial Crisis Periods","authors":"S. G. Deb","doi":"10.1177/0972652719846348","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652719846348","url":null,"abstract":"This article analyses downside risk of Indian equity mutual funds from 1999 to 2014 using a value at risk (VaR)-based approach. We use weekly return data of a sample of 349 equity mutual funds during the said period to estimate their weekly VaRs on a rolling basis using some parametric and non-parametric models. Moving average (MA), exponentially weighted MA and GARCH (1, 1) are the parametric models and historical simulation (HS) is the non-parametric model. We also carry out backtesting of the models using three popular approaches—two under the unconditional coverage approach, namely Jorion’s ‘Failure Rate’ approach and Kupiec’s proportion of ‘failures’ (POF) test, and one under the conditional coverage approach, namely the Christoffersen’s Independence test—to test the robustness of the VaR models. Our results show that Indian equity mutual funds exhibit considerable downside risk during the chosen period, in terms of the magnitude of the projected VaRs. Moreover, significant proportions of the funds ‘fail’ the predicted VaRs, particularly during times of crisis for some of the models, raising questions about their robustness in an investment setting in India. On the whole, both from failure proportion as well as backtesting perspective, the GARCH (1,1) seems to be the most robust of the models. JEL codes: G32, G15, G23","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"18 1","pages":"210 - 236"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652719846348","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47337750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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