Abstract Financial technology innovations (Fintech) are changing the provision of traditional financial services. Although they bring with them various benefits and opportunities, they also have weaknesses and pose potential threats to financial systems. The paper examines the latest developments in the area of Fintech and outlines the potential benefits and associated risks. It highlights the vital role of the monetary authorities in the context of the policies and initiatives required in order to modernize the financial system, including research and the potential issuance of central bank digital currency, while simultaneously fulfilling their core objectives of preserving monetary and financial stability. The authors highlight the importance of artificial intelligence in Fintech development. They create a Fintech SWOT to support and analyse the above. It goes on further to explain the new management concept of “Risk-based thinking” as a way to approach these potential opportunities and threats of Fintech. Finally, the paper looks at cyber risk in the Fintech landscape as the latest and potentially greatest threat springing from these turbulent and uncertain times.
{"title":"Fintech, Risk-Based Thinking and Cyber Risk","authors":"Milena Vučinić, Radoica Luburić","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0012","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Financial technology innovations (Fintech) are changing the provision of traditional financial services. Although they bring with them various benefits and opportunities, they also have weaknesses and pose potential threats to financial systems. The paper examines the latest developments in the area of Fintech and outlines the potential benefits and associated risks. It highlights the vital role of the monetary authorities in the context of the policies and initiatives required in order to modernize the financial system, including research and the potential issuance of central bank digital currency, while simultaneously fulfilling their core objectives of preserving monetary and financial stability. The authors highlight the importance of artificial intelligence in Fintech development. They create a Fintech SWOT to support and analyse the above. It goes on further to explain the new management concept of “Risk-based thinking” as a way to approach these potential opportunities and threats of Fintech. Finally, the paper looks at cyber risk in the Fintech landscape as the latest and potentially greatest threat springing from these turbulent and uncertain times.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42018658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The purpose of the research is to offer a comparative analysis of a libertarian and gradual approach to introducing a market interest rate. The topic is time-relevant since the economies of the emerging markets today face difficult challenges posed by economic, financial and health-care crises, impending price stability, future growth and money market equilibrium. A digital currency is a special issue today due to the outbreak of covid-19, which has made many central banks think about contactless means of payment. The author revealed policy tools to circulate a hypothetical digital currency for the BRICS, including a shared interest rate and the quantity of digital money in circulation needed for the penta-lateral use. The theoretical significance is that the research tries to lay the foundation for a model to launch a virtual regional money market for the countries of the BRICS as well as their partners in wider parts of Europe and Asia. In practical terms, the article recommends a number of tools for monetary policy to deal with the coronavirus crisis of 2020.
{"title":"The Model of a Shared Interest Rate for a Group of Countries to Circulate a Digital Currency: Featuring the BRICS","authors":"M. Zharikov","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0019","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The purpose of the research is to offer a comparative analysis of a libertarian and gradual approach to introducing a market interest rate. The topic is time-relevant since the economies of the emerging markets today face difficult challenges posed by economic, financial and health-care crises, impending price stability, future growth and money market equilibrium. A digital currency is a special issue today due to the outbreak of covid-19, which has made many central banks think about contactless means of payment. The author revealed policy tools to circulate a hypothetical digital currency for the BRICS, including a shared interest rate and the quantity of digital money in circulation needed for the penta-lateral use. The theoretical significance is that the research tries to lay the foundation for a model to launch a virtual regional money market for the countries of the BRICS as well as their partners in wider parts of Europe and Asia. In practical terms, the article recommends a number of tools for monetary policy to deal with the coronavirus crisis of 2020.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69216218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper investigates inconsistencies between countries’ official exchange rate regime declarations (the so-called de jure exchange rate regimes) and their actual policy (de facto exchange rate regimes). These exchange rate regime gaps decrease the credibility of monetary policy and are considered an overall negative economic phenomenon. In this paper, I attempt to disclose the determinants of these gaps using the data on several de facto classifications and a wide array of explanatory variables of economic and institutional nature. The results suggest that a number of macroeconomic factors such as foreign exchange reserves, current account balance and economic openness influence the probability of monetary authorities breaking commitment to their official exchange rate regime. At the same time, I also discover that the exchange rate regime gaps are less frequent in more democratic and institutionally advanced countries although the results tend to differ depending on the de facto classification used and the nature of gap (either de jure floating – de facto fixed or de jure fixed – de facto floating).
{"title":"Determinants of De Jure – De Facto Exchange Rate Regime Gaps","authors":"Viktar Dudzich","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper investigates inconsistencies between countries’ official exchange rate regime declarations (the so-called de jure exchange rate regimes) and their actual policy (de facto exchange rate regimes). These exchange rate regime gaps decrease the credibility of monetary policy and are considered an overall negative economic phenomenon. In this paper, I attempt to disclose the determinants of these gaps using the data on several de facto classifications and a wide array of explanatory variables of economic and institutional nature. The results suggest that a number of macroeconomic factors such as foreign exchange reserves, current account balance and economic openness influence the probability of monetary authorities breaking commitment to their official exchange rate regime. At the same time, I also discover that the exchange rate regime gaps are less frequent in more democratic and institutionally advanced countries although the results tend to differ depending on the de facto classification used and the nature of gap (either de jure floating – de facto fixed or de jure fixed – de facto floating).","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47252755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper analyses the impact of central bank interventions in the inflation targeting regime. The results of empirical studies in this paper show if there is a shock of the exchange rate, which would lead to depreciation of the exchange rate, a central bank may decide to mush instability on the foreign exchange market with foreign exchange interventions, thereby preventing the sudden exchange rate depreciation, which would then require a smaller reaction by the interest rate. Namely, through foreign exchange interventions, the central bank greatly absorbs the depreciation shock and, consequently, inflation is lower. As a result of lower price growth, the need for a monetary policy response to an interest rate is also lower. Based on this example, we can see that central bank intervention in some cases can be very useful in order to correct disturbances in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, some central banks accumulate foreign exchange reserves at a very high level so as to have enough space for foreign exchange intervention, without the risk of falling foreign exchange reserves below the optimum level.
{"title":"Central Bank Intervention in the Inflation Targeting","authors":"Borivoje D. Krušković","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper analyses the impact of central bank interventions in the inflation targeting regime. The results of empirical studies in this paper show if there is a shock of the exchange rate, which would lead to depreciation of the exchange rate, a central bank may decide to mush instability on the foreign exchange market with foreign exchange interventions, thereby preventing the sudden exchange rate depreciation, which would then require a smaller reaction by the interest rate. Namely, through foreign exchange interventions, the central bank greatly absorbs the depreciation shock and, consequently, inflation is lower. As a result of lower price growth, the need for a monetary policy response to an interest rate is also lower. Based on this example, we can see that central bank intervention in some cases can be very useful in order to correct disturbances in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, some central banks accumulate foreign exchange reserves at a very high level so as to have enough space for foreign exchange intervention, without the risk of falling foreign exchange reserves below the optimum level.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42405329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study investigates the relationship between profitability and market power in the banking sector using data from the financial reports of the banks that operated in Serbia and Montenegro, covering the period from the first quarter of 2010 to the last quarter of 2019. In order to investigate this relationship, determinants of bank profitability are split between internal and external. As the external determinants, selected ratios of concentration were calculated and used in order to measure market power. The total of sixteen panel regression models were applied, eight for each country. The results indicate that variations of return on assets and return on equity in Serbia can be explained by the variations of the ratios of concentration. On the other hand, results of the panel regression model applied for the banking sector of Montenegro does not give enough argument to support such explanation, and bank profitability can be explained by bank efficiency to some extent.
{"title":"Market Power and Bank Profitability: Evidence from Montenegro and Serbia","authors":"Z. Grubišić, Sandra Kamenković, Tijana Kaličanin","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study investigates the relationship between profitability and market power in the banking sector using data from the financial reports of the banks that operated in Serbia and Montenegro, covering the period from the first quarter of 2010 to the last quarter of 2019. In order to investigate this relationship, determinants of bank profitability are split between internal and external. As the external determinants, selected ratios of concentration were calculated and used in order to measure market power. The total of sixteen panel regression models were applied, eight for each country. The results indicate that variations of return on assets and return on equity in Serbia can be explained by the variations of the ratios of concentration. On the other hand, results of the panel regression model applied for the banking sector of Montenegro does not give enough argument to support such explanation, and bank profitability can be explained by bank efficiency to some extent.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47729442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We conduct a Monte Carlo experiment using an ad-hoc New Keynesian model and a tractable agent-based model to generate artificial credit cycle episodes. We show that fluctuations in the implicit measures of the natural rate of interest obtained using a conventional trivariate Kalman filter on these artificial datasets occur in the vicinity of credit cycle peaks without any underlying changes in fundamentals (that is the agents’ type or their behaviour). The empirical analysis confirms that the measures of the natural interest rate tend to increase prior to a credit cycle peak and decrease afterwards. We conclude that a decline in the estimated natural rates of interest does not necessarily indicate changes in macroeconomic fundamentals. Instead, it may simply reflect the innate properties of the measurement technique in the vicinity of credit cycle peaks.
{"title":"The Credit Cycle and Measurement of the Natural Rate of Interest","authors":"Elena Deryugina,Maria Guseva,Alexey Ponomarenko","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We conduct a Monte Carlo experiment using an ad-hoc New Keynesian model and a tractable agent-based model to generate artificial credit cycle episodes. We show that fluctuations in the implicit measures of the natural rate of interest obtained using a conventional trivariate Kalman filter on these artificial datasets occur in the vicinity of credit cycle peaks without any underlying changes in fundamentals (that is the agents’ type or their behaviour). The empirical analysis confirms that the measures of the natural interest rate tend to increase prior to a credit cycle peak and decrease afterwards. We conclude that a decline in the estimated natural rates of interest does not necessarily indicate changes in macroeconomic fundamentals. Instead, it may simply reflect the innate properties of the measurement technique in the vicinity of credit cycle peaks.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138537542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Silvo Dajčman,Alenka Kavkler,Sergey Merzlyakov,Sergey E. Pekarski,Dejan Romih
Abstract This paper studies the international transmission of the euro area´s monetary policy and financial stress to Russia. The results show that financial stress in the euro area damages Russian economic activity and stock prices, but not its trade balance. The contractionary euro area monetary policy shock decreases Russian GDP, leads to real appreciation of the euro against the Russian rouble, damages Russian stock prices, but does not significantly affect the trade balance between countries. We also found that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation adjusts to monetary policy shocks in the euro area.
{"title":"International Transmission of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stress Shocks from the Euro Area to Russia","authors":"Silvo Dajčman,Alenka Kavkler,Sergey Merzlyakov,Sergey E. Pekarski,Dejan Romih","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0010","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper studies the international transmission of the euro area´s monetary policy and financial stress to Russia. The results show that financial stress in the euro area damages Russian economic activity and stock prices, but not its trade balance. The contractionary euro area monetary policy shock decreases Russian GDP, leads to real appreciation of the euro against the Russian rouble, damages Russian stock prices, but does not significantly affect the trade balance between countries. We also found that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation adjusts to monetary policy shocks in the euro area.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138537545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract One of the focuses of recent literature has been the macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy instruments. The innovation of this paper is that it studies the effects of transparent macro-prudential policies on price stability. The results presented herein provide the first empirical evidence that macroprudential transparency can aid to achieve stable inflation in emerging and developing countries. The effect is necessarily transmitted through reduced occurrence of banking crises. We also record a particular advantage of macroprudential transparency for non-inflation targeting countries. Overall, the results are robust to the use of two proxies of price stability.
{"title":"Macroprudential Transparency and Price Stability in Emerging and Developing Countries","authors":"Emna Trabelsi","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract One of the focuses of recent literature has been the macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy instruments. The innovation of this paper is that it studies the effects of transparent macro-prudential policies on price stability. The results presented herein provide the first empirical evidence that macroprudential transparency can aid to achieve stable inflation in emerging and developing countries. The effect is necessarily transmitted through reduced occurrence of banking crises. We also record a particular advantage of macroprudential transparency for non-inflation targeting countries. Overall, the results are robust to the use of two proxies of price stability.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43519866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Saif Ullah,Sayed Irshad Hussain,Agha Amad Nabi,Khurram Ali Mubashir
Abstract This study explores the effect of regulatory governance on financial stability using cross-sectional data from 55 countries. The findings show that regulatory governance and various subcomponents of regulatory governance are positively correlated with financial stability in the selected countries. The results, based on the ordinary least square method, explain that the regulatory governance has a significant positive influence on financial stability in the selected countries. Further, concerning different dimensions of regulatory governance, it is showed that an individual impact of all components on financial stability is positive except for the strength of external audit, and supervisory independence and accountability. However, central bank`s independence and economic independence have a statistically significant effect on financial stability, whereas central bank accountability, supervisory independence and accountability, political central bank independence as well as the strength of external audit have an insignificant statistical influence on financial stability. Finally, the study concludes that regulatory governance and individual dimension of regulatory governance played the most significant role in improving financial stability in the selected countries.
{"title":"Role of Regulatory Governance in Financial Stability: A Comparison of High and Low Income Countries","authors":"Saif Ullah,Sayed Irshad Hussain,Agha Amad Nabi,Khurram Ali Mubashir","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study explores the effect of regulatory governance on financial stability using cross-sectional data from 55 countries. The findings show that regulatory governance and various subcomponents of regulatory governance are positively correlated with financial stability in the selected countries. The results, based on the ordinary least square method, explain that the regulatory governance has a significant positive influence on financial stability in the selected countries. Further, concerning different dimensions of regulatory governance, it is showed that an individual impact of all components on financial stability is positive except for the strength of external audit, and supervisory independence and accountability. However, central bank`s independence and economic independence have a statistically significant effect on financial stability, whereas central bank accountability, supervisory independence and accountability, political central bank independence as well as the strength of external audit have an insignificant statistical influence on financial stability. Finally, the study concludes that regulatory governance and individual dimension of regulatory governance played the most significant role in improving financial stability in the selected countries.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138537536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper analyses the concentration of the banking system in Croatia and the impact of concentration on stability of the economic system as a whole over the period since 2002 to 2017. The level of concentration is usually related to the competitiveness of a particular sector, in this case the banking system, which affects the development and health of the country's entire economic system. The banking system, as the basis for the development of all other sectors of the economy, has been analysed here in the context of the concentration trend and efficiency in the selected time period using selected concentration indices: Concentration Ratio, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, the Gini coefficient and the entropy measure using the variables of total assets of banks, loans granted, and received deposits. This research concludes that in the considered period of nearly 20 years, Croatia was among the EU countries with increased concentration level of the banking system.
{"title":"Analysis of the Assets, Credits and Deposits Concentration within the Croatian Banking System based on Selected Concentration Indices","authors":"Mihovil Anđelinović, Mihaela Milec, Ksenija Dumicic","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0006","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper analyses the concentration of the banking system in Croatia and the impact of concentration on stability of the economic system as a whole over the period since 2002 to 2017. The level of concentration is usually related to the competitiveness of a particular sector, in this case the banking system, which affects the development and health of the country's entire economic system. The banking system, as the basis for the development of all other sectors of the economy, has been analysed here in the context of the concentration trend and efficiency in the selected time period using selected concentration indices: Concentration Ratio, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, the Gini coefficient and the entropy measure using the variables of total assets of banks, loans granted, and received deposits. This research concludes that in the considered period of nearly 20 years, Croatia was among the EU countries with increased concentration level of the banking system.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45882554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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