Pub Date : 2019-02-04DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-01-2018-0003
Z. Guan, Yan Xu, Hong Jiang, Guogang Jiang
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze raw materials, labor, capital, demand, related industries, strategies and policies influencing international competitiveness of Chinese textile and clothing industry.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis is conducted using “Diamond Model”, in which raw materials, labor, capital, demand, related industries, strategies and policies are included as explanatory variables, and the impacts of international competitiveness on market share (MS), trade competitiveness(TC) and revealed comparative advantage(RCA) are examined based on the estimated coefficients of these variables.FindingsThese factors have different effects on TC, MS and RCA. While their effects on TC and MS are similar in sign even though their degree of significance differs, their effects on RCA are opposite to TC and MS except for capital. Raw materials and capital have negative effects on TC and MS, while the other factors have positive ones. Raw materials have positive effects on RCA, but all other factors have negative ones.Practical/implicationsThe results from this study imply that it is necessary to increase investment in fixed assets of Chinese textile and clothing industry, speed up the pace of upgrading equipment, improve the level of industrialization, while strengthening the supply of textile raw materials, and lowering raw material prices, thereby reducing the cost of textile and clothing enterprises.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical research made using econometric model about the impact of the main factors of trade competitiveness in Chinese textile and clothing industry based on the “Diamond Model”.
{"title":"International competitiveness of Chinese textile and clothing industry – a diamond model approach","authors":"Z. Guan, Yan Xu, Hong Jiang, Guogang Jiang","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-01-2018-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-01-2018-0003","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze raw materials, labor, capital, demand, related industries, strategies and policies influencing international competitiveness of Chinese textile and clothing industry.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis is conducted using “Diamond Model”, in which raw materials, labor, capital, demand, related industries, strategies and policies are included as explanatory variables, and the impacts of international competitiveness on market share (MS), trade competitiveness(TC) and revealed comparative advantage(RCA) are examined based on the estimated coefficients of these variables.FindingsThese factors have different effects on TC, MS and RCA. While their effects on TC and MS are similar in sign even though their degree of significance differs, their effects on RCA are opposite to TC and MS except for capital. Raw materials and capital have negative effects on TC and MS, while the other factors have positive ones. Raw materials have positive effects on RCA, but all other factors have negative ones.Practical/implicationsThe results from this study imply that it is necessary to increase investment in fixed assets of Chinese textile and clothing industry, speed up the pace of upgrading equipment, improve the level of industrialization, while strengthening the supply of textile raw materials, and lowering raw material prices, thereby reducing the cost of textile and clothing enterprises.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical research made using econometric model about the impact of the main factors of trade competitiveness in Chinese textile and clothing industry based on the “Diamond Model”.","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2019-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/JCEFTS-01-2018-0003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44105003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-10-22DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2018-0028
Lubna Uzair, A. Nawaz
Purpose This paper aims to empirically examine the trade creation and diversion impacts on merchandise imports of Pakistan under the Pakistan–China Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The analysis of Pakistan’s preferential treatment with its largest trade partner as well as the most substantial exporter of the world will help to shape trade policy, open windows for academic research and also gives an immense contribution in literature. Design/methodology/approach A disaggregated panel data on the imports of Pakistan from China and other WTO member countries and tariff concessions at Harmonized System (HS) two-digit level used for the agreement period of 2006-2012. The empirical analysis takes care of bias through robust and panel-corrected standard errors with time, industry-specific effects and controlling for multilateral trade resistance. Findings Evidence found in support of trade creation under the Pakistan–China FTA. It means overall this agreement increased the welfare of Pakistani consumers. Practical implications Findings are in favour of negotiations and signing for the next round of this agreement and with other major trade partners like the US and Saudi Arabia. Originality/value It is worth investigating empirically the impact of preferential trade liberalization between Pakistan – a developing country – and China – the largest importer of the world – explicitly, in the form of trade creation or diversion. The empirical assessment of this FTA signed with the world’s largest exporter will not only contribute immensely to the literature but also help in trade policy formulation and open windows for academic research. Another unique aspect of this study is the use of disaggregated data consisting of all goods imports along with tariff concessions at two-digit Harmonized System (HS) code.
{"title":"Modelling welfare effects under Pakistan–China free trade agreement","authors":"Lubna Uzair, A. Nawaz","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2018-0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2018-0028","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to empirically examine the trade creation and diversion impacts on merchandise imports of Pakistan under the Pakistan–China Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The analysis of Pakistan’s preferential treatment with its largest trade partner as well as the most substantial exporter of the world will help to shape trade policy, open windows for academic research and also gives an immense contribution in literature.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000A disaggregated panel data on the imports of Pakistan from China and other WTO member countries and tariff concessions at Harmonized System (HS) two-digit level used for the agreement period of 2006-2012. The empirical analysis takes care of bias through robust and panel-corrected standard errors with time, industry-specific effects and controlling for multilateral trade resistance.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Evidence found in support of trade creation under the Pakistan–China FTA. It means overall this agreement increased the welfare of Pakistani consumers.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Findings are in favour of negotiations and signing for the next round of this agreement and with other major trade partners like the US and Saudi Arabia.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000It is worth investigating empirically the impact of preferential trade liberalization between Pakistan – a developing country – and China – the largest importer of the world – explicitly, in the form of trade creation or diversion. The empirical assessment of this FTA signed with the world’s largest exporter will not only contribute immensely to the literature but also help in trade policy formulation and open windows for academic research. Another unique aspect of this study is the use of disaggregated data consisting of all goods imports along with tariff concessions at two-digit Harmonized System (HS) code.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2018-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2018-0028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43734349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-10-01DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-04-2018-0009
Yongqing Wang
Purpose China’s exchange rate system remains a public concern. This paper aims to investigate the effects of the appreciation of the US dollar (or depreciation of Chinese Yuan) under China’s “managed floating exchange rate system” on the US bilateral trade deficit with China, the US exports to China and the US imports from China. Design/methodology/approach The author uses quarterly data from 2005Q3 to 2017Q3 and applies autoregressive distributed lags model to carry out the empirical analysis. Findings The results suggest that both the US and Chinese income are important determinants of the US bilateral trade deficit with China, the US exports to China and the US imports from China. Further, the appreciation of the US dollar with respect to Chinese currency may discourage the US exports to China, but will not considerably promote the US imports from China in the long run. Finally, the appreciation of the US dollar does not contribute significantly to the US trade deficit with China in the long run. Originality/value Policymakers may want to pay attention to the results of currency depreciation on bilateral trade flows and trade balance in both the short and the long run. The results are different. Policymakers may also want to keep the following in mind: both the US and Chinese income are vital factors of bilateral trade balance, exports and imports.
{"title":"Effects of exchange rate and income on the US bilateral trade with China under Chinese managed floating exchange rate system","authors":"Yongqing Wang","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-04-2018-0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-04-2018-0009","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000China’s exchange rate system remains a public concern. This paper aims to investigate the effects of the appreciation of the US dollar (or depreciation of Chinese Yuan) under China’s “managed floating exchange rate system” on the US bilateral trade deficit with China, the US exports to China and the US imports from China.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The author uses quarterly data from 2005Q3 to 2017Q3 and applies autoregressive distributed lags model to carry out the empirical analysis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results suggest that both the US and Chinese income are important determinants of the US bilateral trade deficit with China, the US exports to China and the US imports from China. Further, the appreciation of the US dollar with respect to Chinese currency may discourage the US exports to China, but will not considerably promote the US imports from China in the long run. Finally, the appreciation of the US dollar does not contribute significantly to the US trade deficit with China in the long run.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Policymakers may want to pay attention to the results of currency depreciation on bilateral trade flows and trade balance in both the short and the long run. The results are different. Policymakers may also want to keep the following in mind: both the US and Chinese income are vital factors of bilateral trade balance, exports and imports.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/JCEFTS-04-2018-0009","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49087952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-10-01DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-01-2018-0001
Zaini Achmad
Purpose This paper aims to analyze the superior economic sector by looking at its contribution to the gross regional domestic product (GRDP) of East Kalimantan Province, the economic base, the multiplier effect and the strength of inter-sectoral linkages. Design/methodology/approach This study was designed through two research approaches, namely, quantitative and qualitative method. This is intended to complement the results of the phenomenon under study and to strengthen the analysis. Secondary data were analyzed by the level of contribution of the economic sectors to the GRDP, and the base sector was determined through the location quotient approach. The two methods of calculation helped to reveal the dominant economic sectors in East Kalimantan Province. The Input Output (IO) Table in 2016 was made up dated from the 2009 IO Table to be used as a basis for building Social Accounting Matrix data or known as the East Kalimantan Regional Socio-Economic Balance System (SEBS) (a matrix of 49 × 49 sectors) in 2017 by using the RAS method. To be consistent, these SEBS data are then aggregated so all commodities are combined into economic sectors used to determine the leading sector on the East Kalimantan Province SEBS in 2016 (a matrix of 41 × 41 sectors). Findings Based on the assessment by scoring of the criteria for determining the leading economic sectors in East Kalimantan, i.e. the contribution of the economic sector to GRDP, the economic base, the multiplier effect (income, production factor, and output) and the linkages between sectors, both backward and forward linkage, shows the ten leading sectors as follows: the trade; paper and printed goods; financial institutions and other financial services; fertilizer; chemical and other rubber products; hotel and restaurant; general government; fisheries; excavation; and mining without oil and gas. Originality/value Similar research has never been done before in East Kalimantan; this is one of the originalities of this present study. No previous study has comprehensively studied the mediating effects of tourist value perception on the determination of economic sector, especially in Kalimantan, Indonesia.
{"title":"Determination of economic sector in East Kalimantan, Indonesia","authors":"Zaini Achmad","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-01-2018-0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-01-2018-0001","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to analyze the superior economic sector by looking at its contribution to the gross regional domestic product (GRDP) of East Kalimantan Province, the economic base, the multiplier effect and the strength of inter-sectoral linkages.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study was designed through two research approaches, namely, quantitative and qualitative method. This is intended to complement the results of the phenomenon under study and to strengthen the analysis. Secondary data were analyzed by the level of contribution of the economic sectors to the GRDP, and the base sector was determined through the location quotient approach. The two methods of calculation helped to reveal the dominant economic sectors in East Kalimantan Province. The Input Output (IO) Table in 2016 was made up dated from the 2009 IO Table to be used as a basis for building Social Accounting Matrix data or known as the East Kalimantan Regional Socio-Economic Balance System (SEBS) (a matrix of 49 × 49 sectors) in 2017 by using the RAS method. To be consistent, these SEBS data are then aggregated so all commodities are combined into economic sectors used to determine the leading sector on the East Kalimantan Province SEBS in 2016 (a matrix of 41 × 41 sectors).\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Based on the assessment by scoring of the criteria for determining the leading economic sectors in East Kalimantan, i.e. the contribution of the economic sector to GRDP, the economic base, the multiplier effect (income, production factor, and output) and the linkages between sectors, both backward and forward linkage, shows the ten leading sectors as follows: the trade; paper and printed goods; financial institutions and other financial services; fertilizer; chemical and other rubber products; hotel and restaurant; general government; fisheries; excavation; and mining without oil and gas.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Similar research has never been done before in East Kalimantan; this is one of the originalities of this present study. No previous study has comprehensively studied the mediating effects of tourist value perception on the determination of economic sector, especially in Kalimantan, Indonesia.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/JCEFTS-01-2018-0001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42109610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-07-26DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-05-2018-0013
Mostafa E. AboElsoud
Purpose The effectiveness of foreign aid, specifically, the role it plays in promoting growth in developing countries, is one of the most debated issues in the field of economics. Despite the enormous resources channeled to developing countries over the past decades, only limited tangible results can be observed. The literature on aid effectiveness is vast. Yet, the results are inconclusive. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of economic aid provided by the USA on Egyptian economic growth before the Egyptian Revolution in 2011, more precisely, Mubarak’s era. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and Granger causality test to answer the question of whether the US Agency for International Development (USAID) has been conductive to growth in Egypt over the period of 1981 to 2010. Findings The results reveal that USAID has no impact on the Egyptian economic growth. Originality/value The recommendations put forward by this paper are measures that Egyptian policymakers can undertake to increase aid effectiveness. These measures include the reduction of corruption, more active participation in delivering aid, greater accountability for aid outcomes and coordination of the activities of aid agencies.
{"title":"Did USAID promote economic growth prior to the 2011 Egyptian Revolution?","authors":"Mostafa E. AboElsoud","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-05-2018-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-05-2018-0013","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The effectiveness of foreign aid, specifically, the role it plays in promoting growth in developing countries, is one of the most debated issues in the field of economics. Despite the enormous resources channeled to developing countries over the past decades, only limited tangible results can be observed. The literature on aid effectiveness is vast. Yet, the results are inconclusive. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of economic aid provided by the USA on Egyptian economic growth before the Egyptian Revolution in 2011, more precisely, Mubarak’s era.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The paper uses a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and Granger causality test to answer the question of whether the US Agency for International Development (USAID) has been conductive to growth in Egypt over the period of 1981 to 2010.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results reveal that USAID has no impact on the Egyptian economic growth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The recommendations put forward by this paper are measures that Egyptian policymakers can undertake to increase aid effectiveness. These measures include the reduction of corruption, more active participation in delivering aid, greater accountability for aid outcomes and coordination of the activities of aid agencies.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2018-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/JCEFTS-05-2018-0013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42032278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-06-04DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-11-2017-0032
F. Jabalameli, E. Rasoulinezhad
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze and compare the similarities in the foreign trade patterns of China and the other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) members. Design/methodology/approach Three panel data estimations, namely, fixed effect, random effect and fully modified ordinary least squares, have been conducted in this paper based on the gravitational model of international trade for bilateral trade of each BRICS member with five United Nations (UN) regional groups from 2001 to 2015. Findings The results revealed that Russia has a dissimilar trade pattern, based on the Heckscher–Ohlin (H-O) framework, with these five regional groups, while the other BRICS members follow the Linder hypothesis. Furthermore, it was found that China has a faster pace of globalization, while the rest of the BRICS members have experienced regionalization rather than globalization. In addition, geographical distance, as a proxy for transportation cost, has a weaker negative effect on the trade patterns of China and India, which makes the trade patterns of BRICS members dissimilar. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to examine and compare the BRICS member countries’ foreign trade pattern through a gravity trade approach.
{"title":"BRICS-United Nations regional groups’ trade patterns: a panel-gravity approach","authors":"F. Jabalameli, E. Rasoulinezhad","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-11-2017-0032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-11-2017-0032","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to analyze and compare the similarities in the foreign trade patterns of China and the other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) members.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Three panel data estimations, namely, fixed effect, random effect and fully modified ordinary least squares, have been conducted in this paper based on the gravitational model of international trade for bilateral trade of each BRICS member with five United Nations (UN) regional groups from 2001 to 2015.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results revealed that Russia has a dissimilar trade pattern, based on the Heckscher–Ohlin (H-O) framework, with these five regional groups, while the other BRICS members follow the Linder hypothesis. Furthermore, it was found that China has a faster pace of globalization, while the rest of the BRICS members have experienced regionalization rather than globalization. In addition, geographical distance, as a proxy for transportation cost, has a weaker negative effect on the trade patterns of China and India, which makes the trade patterns of BRICS members dissimilar.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to examine and compare the BRICS member countries’ foreign trade pattern through a gravity trade approach.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2018-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/JCEFTS-11-2017-0032","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49067644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-06-04DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-11-2017-0034
Isaac Koomson-Abekah, Eugene Chinweokwu Nwaba
PurposeThis paper aims to investigate China–Africa Investment link, using over two decades of FDI’s data. During the specified periods, African economic growth path has been predominantly upward trending, despite multiple external threats. This impressive growth was partly because of the growth of FDI stock across the region. This study explores the various sources of FDI to Africa, mainly China’s FDI’s and how they influence African macroeconomic indicators, i.e. unemployment, export and import activities.Design/methodology/approachPesaran autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) is used as a framework to test the short-run and long-run relationship of indicators. Granger causality test checked the causality between growth and macroeconomic indicators.FindingsThe link between China’s FDI and African economic growth reported a negative/declining effect in both short and long run. In the long run, the effect of world FDI on growth was significant but not the in the short run. However, US FDI to Africa, China Export and Import from Africa reported an insignificant effect on growth. There was no evidence of Okun’s law, as a decrease in Africa unemployment does not increase growth. Overall, China’s FDI’s inflows to Africa are allocated to capital-intensive activities which has less labor employability. The Granger causality test reported a uni-directional link between growth and all series, except for human capital which experienced no link at all in all directions. Despite the issue of socio-infrastructure militating against growth in the region, African economy is likely to perform better, if more FDI’s are channeled into labor-intensive activities, because it has a reductive effect on unemployment.Research limitations/implicationsThe research considered point annual FDI data but not accumulated stock and is a macro-based study, i.e. regional economy.Practical implicationsThis paper bridged the literature gap in African investment performance by providing an empirical justification in understanding the inflow of FDI, especially China. This is a useful guard in policy design and implementations in the attraction of the right type of investment, so as to reduce unemployment and promote growth.Originality/valueThe authors confirm that this study has not been published elsewhere and is not under consideration in whole or in part by another journal.
{"title":"Africa-China investment and growth link","authors":"Isaac Koomson-Abekah, Eugene Chinweokwu Nwaba","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-11-2017-0034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-11-2017-0034","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper aims to investigate China–Africa Investment link, using over two decades of FDI’s data. During the specified periods, African economic growth path has been predominantly upward trending, despite multiple external threats. This impressive growth was partly because of the growth of FDI stock across the region. This study explores the various sources of FDI to Africa, mainly China’s FDI’s and how they influence African macroeconomic indicators, i.e. unemployment, export and import activities.Design/methodology/approachPesaran autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) is used as a framework to test the short-run and long-run relationship of indicators. Granger causality test checked the causality between growth and macroeconomic indicators.FindingsThe link between China’s FDI and African economic growth reported a negative/declining effect in both short and long run. In the long run, the effect of world FDI on growth was significant but not the in the short run. However, US FDI to Africa, China Export and Import from Africa reported an insignificant effect on growth. There was no evidence of Okun’s law, as a decrease in Africa unemployment does not increase growth. Overall, China’s FDI’s inflows to Africa are allocated to capital-intensive activities which has less labor employability. The Granger causality test reported a uni-directional link between growth and all series, except for human capital which experienced no link at all in all directions. Despite the issue of socio-infrastructure militating against growth in the region, African economy is likely to perform better, if more FDI’s are channeled into labor-intensive activities, because it has a reductive effect on unemployment.Research limitations/implicationsThe research considered point annual FDI data but not accumulated stock and is a macro-based study, i.e. regional economy.Practical implicationsThis paper bridged the literature gap in African investment performance by providing an empirical justification in understanding the inflow of FDI, especially China. This is a useful guard in policy design and implementations in the attraction of the right type of investment, so as to reduce unemployment and promote growth.Originality/valueThe authors confirm that this study has not been published elsewhere and is not under consideration in whole or in part by another journal.","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2018-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/JCEFTS-11-2017-0034","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45237616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-05-02DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2017-0021
Mingming Pan, H. Nguyen
Purpose The association between export destinations and economic growth remains under-researched, despite the large literature on export-led growth. This paper aims to fill in the gap of the literature. It analyzes the effects of exporting on economic growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and further explores which export destinations are most desirable in terms of promoting economic growth. Design/methodology/approach With panel data for ASEAN countries from 1986 to 2013, this paper performs both fixed effects estimation and Arellano–Bond GMM estimation. Findings Robust findings reveal that to promote economic growth, it is most beneficial for ASEAN countries to export to the Western industrial countries, followed by exporting to Japan, Korea and China. Exporting to the rest of the world does not appear to generate significantly positive effect on economic growth. Originality/value The findings have important policy implications for ASEANs to further develop their trade policy.
{"title":"Export and growth in ASEAN: does export destination matter?","authors":"Mingming Pan, H. Nguyen","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2017-0021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2017-0021","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The association between export destinations and economic growth remains under-researched, despite the large literature on export-led growth. This paper aims to fill in the gap of the literature. It analyzes the effects of exporting on economic growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and further explores which export destinations are most desirable in terms of promoting economic growth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000With panel data for ASEAN countries from 1986 to 2013, this paper performs both fixed effects estimation and Arellano–Bond GMM estimation.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Robust findings reveal that to promote economic growth, it is most beneficial for ASEAN countries to export to the Western industrial countries, followed by exporting to Japan, Korea and China. Exporting to the rest of the world does not appear to generate significantly positive effect on economic growth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The findings have important policy implications for ASEANs to further develop their trade policy.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2018-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2017-0021","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42909932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-29DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-05-2017-0011
Richard Makoto, Leonidas Ngendakumana
The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of Chinese import penetration on industrial production and inflation in low income countries, specifically, the impact on textile, wood and furniture, paper and chemical in Zimbabwean industries.,The study adopted bounds test of co-integration advocated by Pesaran et al. (2001) to distinguish between short- and long-run impacts. A sector-specific regression models were specified for textile, wood and furniture, paper and chemical industries and the other one on inflation,The effect of Chinese imports varies across industry. A negative impact on wood and furniture and paper industries is confirmed and rejects an anticipated negative effect on textile industries. However, import penetration had a negative effect on inflation.,The study recommends that the country should consider the trade-off between industrial shrinkage and low prices when formulating trade policy, especially import restrictions, as trade protectionism has failed in most African countries. Temporary trade restriction measures should be implemented and this will encourage dynamic efficiency in domestic industries.,The study identified the need for sector-specific impact of Chinese import penetration on manufacturing sector and the dynamics on inflation.
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Pub Date : 2017-12-29DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2017-0023
Syed Tehseen Jawaid, A. Waheed
Purpose The purpose of the study is to develop a macroeconometric model for evaluation of trade policies and forecasting of trade performance of Pakistan with different regions or group of countries. Design/methodology/approach These regions or group of countries are Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the rest of the world. A macroeconometric model containing 15 behavioral equations and eight identities. Findings Cointegration results suggest that there exist long-run relationships among variables of all behavioral equations. Additionally, results of different policy shocks based on unit value of export (export price), unit value of import (import price), exchange rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate and foreign exchange reserve suggest that the model is useful for economic planning to sustain growth performance of Pakistan. Originality/value In this study, the authors develop for the first time ever a macroeconometric model for the evaluation and forecasting of regional trade policy and performance for Pakistan.
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