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A Reassessment of Oil Market Volatility and Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Selected SAARC Countries 石油市场波动和股票市场波动的重新评估:来自南盟国家的证据
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.27
Tariq Aziz
Volatility spillover informs whether the information in one market impacts the information in another. This paper examines whether oil market volatility spills over to the equity markets of selected SAARC countries. The study uses data from February 2013 to September 2019 to obtain updated evidence about the transmission of global oil price volatility to the equity markets of the SAARC member countries. The bivariate EGARCH model is used to test for volatility transmission from the oil market to the stock market. It is found that oil price shocks do not significantly impact equity market volatility, except in Bangladesh. Policymakers can use these findings when making policy decisions.
波动溢出表明一个市场的信息是否会影响另一个市场的信息。本文考察了石油市场波动是否会溢出到选定的南盟国家的股票市场。该研究使用了2013年2月至2019年9月的数据,以获取有关全球油价波动对南盟成员国股票市场传导的最新证据。二元EGARCH模型用于检验波动率从石油市场到股票市场的传导。研究发现,除了孟加拉国之外,油价冲击对股市波动没有显著影响。决策者在制定政策时可以利用这些发现。
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引用次数: 0
Smart Cities for the Sustainable Development of Local Communities: the Cases of the Volyn Region and the City of Lublin 智慧城市促进地方社区可持续发展:以沃林地区和卢布林市为例
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.21
Pierpaolo Pontrandolfo, Oksana Polinkevych, Barbara Scozzi, Olena Kuzmak
The concept of a “smart city” is being actively implemented by several European cities to improve citizens’ quality of life and sustainability at the local community level. The article evaluates “smart city” programs adopted by Ukraine cities in the Volyn region based on well‑being assessment. To do so, a literature review was conducted to identify indicators to assess well‑being at the local level, and Benessere equo e sostenibile dei territori (BESdT, Equitable, and Sustainable Territorial Well‑being) was adopted. BESdT is an institutional measurement framework developed by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) to measure well‑being at the local level through a collection of indicators that cover different well‑being domains. The BESdT indicators available for Ukraine and Poland were collected and then measured. The main goals of the scientific research are to clarify if it is possible to use the BESdT indicators, which are used to assess smart cities in Southern Europe, for the countries of North‑Eastern Europe using the example of the Volyn region and the city of Lublin. The work investigates the indicators of smart cities and considers examples of their construction for 2003–2021. The results testify to the upward trend in implementing “smart city” programs in the regional context. In the Volyn region, the priority areas of project implementation are security, transport, and electricity. In this region, development can be identified concerning trends such as a reduced death rate, an improved balance between work and personal life, increased economic prosperity, and the improved environmental component and security of society. On the other hand, a reduction in innovation implementation and a loss of trust in the government were also identified. The analysis shows that the positive changes above are due to the actions of the central rather than the regional government. Based on the analysis, it was established that the countries of North‑Eastern Europe have the level of development of Smart City 3.0, except for Ukraine, which has generation 1.0, and in Southern Europe, generation 4.0.
一些欧洲城市正在积极实施“智慧城市”的概念,以提高当地社区居民的生活质量和可持续性。本文基于福祉评估对乌克兰沃林地区城市采用的“智慧城市”项目进行了评估。为此,进行了文献综述,以确定评估地方一级福祉的指标,并采用了Benessere equo e sostenibile dei territori (BESdT,公平和可持续领土福祉)。BESdT是意大利国家统计局(ISTAT)制定的一个制度性衡量框架,通过涵盖不同福祉领域的一系列指标,在地方一级衡量福祉。收集并测量了乌克兰和波兰可用的best dt指标。科学研究的主要目标是澄清是否有可能使用BESdT指标,该指标用于评估南欧的智能城市,以沃尔林地区和卢布林市为例,用于北欧国家。这项工作调查了智慧城市的指标,并考虑了2003-2021年智慧城市建设的例子。结果证明了在区域范围内实施“智慧城市”计划的上升趋势。在沃林地区,项目实施的优先领域是安全、交通和电力。在本区域,可以确定的发展趋势包括死亡率降低、工作和个人生活之间的平衡得到改善、经济更加繁荣、社会环境组成部分和安全得到改善。另一方面,创新实施的减少和对政府的信任的丧失也被发现。分析表明,上述积极变化是由于中央政府的行动,而不是地方政府的行动。基于分析,确定除乌克兰为1.0代外,东北欧国家为3.0代,南欧为4.0代,其余国家为3.0代。
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引用次数: 0
The Mundell‑Fleming Model and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies 蒙代尔-弗莱明模型与宏观经济稳定政策
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.25
Erico Wulf Betancourt, Ryszard Piasecki
This paper analyzes the fiscal policy implications set in the Mundell‑Fleming (M‑F) model and its effectiveness in emerging economies. It also widens the scope of the policy mix with alternative exchange rates. The empirical evidence about the economies of Chile (1991–2003) and Colombia (1994–2004), about institutions, fiscal policy rule, and the eurozone conditions (1999), were considered relevant The paper has three sections a. The budget‑surplus fiscal policy rule and policy effectiveness, b. The role of institutions in setting policy rules, c. The experience of the Chilean and Colombian economies concerning fiscal policy rules within the M‑F framework. The main conclusion is that as long as country risk is lower due to countercyclical fiscal policy rules, governments have an alternative means of getting funds at a lower international interest rate. The fiscal policy effect on GDP (output)becomes positive.
本文分析了蒙代尔-弗莱明(M - F)模型中设定的财政政策含义及其在新兴经济体中的有效性。它还扩大了替代汇率政策组合的范围。关于智利(1991-2003年)和哥伦比亚(1994-2004年)经济、制度、财政政策规则和欧元区条件(1999年)的经验证据被认为是相关的。本文分为三个部分:a.预算盈余财政政策规则和政策有效性;b.制度在制定政策规则中的作用;c. M - F框架下智利和哥伦比亚经济关于财政政策规则的经验。主要结论是,只要国家风险因反周期财政政策规则而降低,政府就有以较低国际利率获得资金的替代手段。财政政策对GDP(产出)的影响为正。
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引用次数: 0
Poverty in Selected European Countries. A Spatio-temporal Analysis from 2003–2020 欧洲部分国家的贫困状况。2003-2020年的时空分析
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.22
Maciej Jewczak, Karol Korczak
The problem of poverty, both in theory and practice, gained a new meaning with the beginning of the transformation of selected European economies from being centrally planned to market economies. The transition and the accompanying ownership changes resulted in significant shifts in the income distribution, which affected the increase in the stratification of society in terms of material situation and the deterioration of the living conditions of some social groups. Developing and evaluating anti‑poverty programs should be preceded by identifying who is considered poor. Defining poverty is the first and a key step in measuring its characteristics, e.g., its intensity. Hence, the choice of a specific definition of poverty is of fundamental importance for the results of this measurement. The aim of the paper is to assess the material situation of European societies in terms of poverty change in a holistic approach – considering all the information available in international statistics on the problem. To achieve the research objective at the regional data level, we used the URi measure to decompose changes in structure and estimate the direction and intensity of poverty recorded. Further, we evaluated whether the transformations coincide temporarily and spatially. Applying the Hellinger distance (HD) allowed us to identify the significance of trends in changes in the poverty structure, especially in the years of the COVID–19 pandemic, when an increase in the importance of individual structural components of poverty was observed in the analysed European NUTS–2 spatial units. For some economies, the transition was also a consequence of European economic crises or major events of international importance, e.g., sports events or countries acceding to the EU.
随着某些欧洲经济体开始从中央计划经济向市场经济转变,贫穷问题在理论和实践上都有了新的含义。这种转型以及随之而来的所有制变化导致了收入分配的重大变化,影响了社会物质状况的分层加剧和一些社会群体生活条件的恶化。在制定和评估反贫困项目之前,应该先确定谁是贫困人口。界定贫穷是衡量其特征,例如其强度的第一步和关键步骤。因此,选择一个具体的贫穷定义对这种衡量的结果具有根本的重要性。该文件的目的是考虑到国际统计中关于这一问题的所有现有资料,以一种全面的方法评估欧洲社会在贫穷变化方面的物质状况。为了实现区域数据层面的研究目标,我们使用URi度量来分解结构变化,并估计记录贫困的方向和强度。此外,我们评估了转换是否在暂时和空间上重合。应用海林格距离(HD),我们能够确定贫困结构变化趋势的重要性,特别是在COVID-19大流行的年份,在分析的欧洲NUTS-2空间单元中观察到贫困的单个结构组成部分的重要性增加。对一些经济体来说,转型也是欧洲经济危机或具有国际重要性的重大事件的结果,例如体育赛事或国家加入欧盟。
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引用次数: 0
Polish Adaptation Policy to Climate Change vs. EU Countries’ Adaptation Policies 波兰对气候变化的适应政策与欧盟国家的适应政策
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.24
Dorota Michalak, Paulina Szyja
The purpose of this study is to compare the advancement of Poland’s adaptation policy with the policy of other EU countries. Benchmarking was used, and the research was preceded by comparing the degree of climate change impact on the economies of individual EU countries. The study used 12 comparative quantities, forecast to 2100 for 27 countries. The added value of the analysis is the diagnosis that indicates whether the advancement of the adaptation policy of individual countries is appropriate for the projected climate change, together with the indication of the level of the adaptation policy in Poland compared to other member states. It was determined that, compared to Western countries, Poland has the lowest projected impact of climate change, as represented by selected indicators in the study, but it also has the lowest degree of adaptation policies. However, comparing Poland with the other countries that joined the EU in 2004 shows the opposite trend. The survey is a starting point for further analysis of adaptation in its broadest sense, at national, EU, and global levels. It indicates that despite the high rate of increase in the negative consequences of climate change, the implementation of adaptation policies is still insufficient and often at an early stage of planning.
本研究的目的是比较波兰的适应政策的进步与其他欧盟国家的政策。研究采用了基准,并在研究之前比较了气候变化对单个欧盟国家经济的影响程度。该研究使用了12个比较数量,预测了27个国家到2100年的情况。分析的附加价值在于诊断出各个国家的适应政策的推进是否适合预测的气候变化,并指出波兰与其他成员国相比的适应政策水平。研究确定,与西方国家相比,波兰预计的气候变化影响最低,正如研究中选定的指标所代表的那样,但它的适应政策程度也最低。然而,将波兰与2004年加入欧盟的其他国家进行比较,则显示出相反的趋势。这项调查是在国家、欧盟和全球层面进一步分析最广泛意义上的适应的起点。报告指出,尽管气候变化的负面后果增加的速度很快,但适应政策的实施仍然不足,而且往往处于规划的早期阶段。
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引用次数: 0
Intersectoral Flows in the Economies of the Visegrad Group Countries 维谢格拉德集团国家经济的部门间流动
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.20
Michał Przybyliński, Joanna Trębska
We present a comparative study of flows between institutional sectors in the economies of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, with particular emphasis on the role of the foreign sector. The purpose of our study is to determine the strength and nature of inter‑sectoral ties in the analyzed countries and point out the similarities and differences between them. The research method is based on the sequence of all transactions included in the System of National Accounts (SNA): product transactions, primary income generation and allocation, income distribution, and financial instrument transactions. The study is distinguished by its consistency and balance within the SNA. The method used to transform data into a payer‑payee matrix guarantees the preservation of these properties. It creates a new perspective for assessing the sensitivity of economies to external processes. It is the first such comprehensive comparative study, providing unambiguous and replicable results based on a standardized accounting system that operates in all European countries. The period covered by the study (2000–2020) allows us to draw interesting conclusions about the processes that took place during and after the accession to the European Union. The results indicate, inter alia, an increase in the involvement of the foreign sector, primarily in production processes (import, export) and investment. Particularly noteworthy is the high degree of financialization of the Hungarian economy.
我们对捷克、匈牙利、波兰和斯洛伐克经济中机构部门之间的流动进行了比较研究,特别强调了外国部门的作用。我们研究的目的是确定所分析国家部门间联系的强度和性质,并指出它们之间的异同。该研究方法基于国民经济核算体系(SNA)中包含的所有交易的顺序:产品交易、主要收入产生和分配、收入分配和金融工具交易。这项研究的特点是在国民核算体系内保持一致性和平衡。将数据转换为付款人-收款人矩阵的方法保证了这些属性的保存。它为评估经济体对外部进程的敏感性创造了一个新的视角。这是第一次这样全面的比较研究,根据在所有欧洲国家运作的标准化会计系统提供了明确和可复制的结果。该研究涵盖的时期(2000-2020年)使我们能够得出关于加入欧盟期间和之后发生的进程的有趣结论。结果表明,除其他外,外国部门的参与增加,主要是在生产过程(进口、出口)和投资方面。特别值得注意的是匈牙利经济的高度金融化。
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 It is the first such comprehensive comparative study, providing unambiguous and replicable results based on a standardized accounting system that operates in all European countries. The period covered by the study (2000–2020) allows us to draw interesting conclusions about the processes that took place during and after the accession to the European Union. The results indicate, inter alia, an increase in the involvement of the foreign sector, primarily in production processes (import, export) and investment. Particularly noteworthy is the high degree of financialization of the Hungarian economy.","PeriodicalId":44249,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Economic Research-Central and Eastern Europe","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135199774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Impact of Economic Equilibrium, Globalization, Human Development, and Market Competitiveness on the Sustainable Development of Manufacturing Enterprises – the Case of France, Germany, Italy and Poland 经济均衡、全球化、人力发展和市场竞争力对制造业企业可持续发展的影响——以法国、德国、意大利和波兰为例
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.23
Magdalena Kowalska, Anna Misztal
The paper presents the results of an analysis of the impact of economic equilibrium, the Human Development Index, the KOF Globalization Index and the Global Competitiveness Index on the sustainable development of manufacturing enterprises and their components in France, Germany, Italy and Poland from 2008 to 2021. We use the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Seemingly Unrelated Regression methods (SUR). The results show that these external factors significantly impact an enterprise’s sustainable development. Our models also show a different strength and direction of relationships between the explained and explanatory variables. Our models confirm the need to coordinate macroeconomics and environmental policy. It is important to use effective tools of economic support, and greater pressure from European Union institutions on countries that emit harmful substances is essential.
本文分析了2008 - 2021年经济均衡、人类发展指数、KOF全球化指数和全球竞争力指数对法国、德国、意大利和波兰制造业企业及其组成部分可持续发展的影响。我们使用普通最小二乘(OLS)和看似不相关回归(SUR)方法。结果表明,这些外部因素显著影响着企业的可持续发展。我们的模型还显示了被解释变量和被解释变量之间关系的不同强度和方向。我们的模型证实了协调宏观经济和环境政策的必要性。重要的是使用有效的经济支持工具,欧盟机构对排放有害物质的国家施加更大的压力是必不可少的。
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引用次数: 0
The Quality of Governance and Its Impact on FDI Inflows. A Comparative Study of EU Member States 治理质量及其对FDI流入的影响。欧盟成员国比较研究
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.19
Bogusława Dobrowolska, Tomasz Dorożyński, Anetta Kuna‑Marszałek
The principal goal of the article is to assess the quality of governance (QG) in the EU–28 over the period 2004–2020. It also examines the relationship between QG and FDI inward stock as a % of GDP. The study has been divided into five stages. The first one, based on the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), attempts to identify countries that represent similar levels of institutional quality. Based on this criterion and using clustering methods, we divided the EU Member States into four groups. In the second step, we used the values of the synthetic index of QG to compare the level of institutional quality among the Member States between 2004 and 2020. The third step assesses FDI as a % of GDP in the Member States. Due to substantial differences, we divided them into four groups, arranged in ascending order of FDI as a % of GDP. In the fourth stage of the analysis, we examined the relationship between FDI as a share of GDP and groups of countries with similar QG. Finally, we examined the relevance of six individual dimensions of governance for FDI inflows in the EU–28 countries. The study demonstrates that the EU Member States differ significantly regarding the overall QG measured with the WGI. The results of the statistical analysis allow us to positively verify the hypothesis about a positive relationship between QG and the inflow of FDI. The most important partial variable is regulatory quality. The added value of this article comes from grouping the EU–28 based on the similarity of their quality of governance (measured by six dimensions of governance) and demonstrating that it impacts FDI inflows. We created a synthetic index of governance quality values to compare the level of institutional quality among the Member States between 2004 and 2020.
本文的主要目标是评估2004-2020年间欧盟28国的治理质量(QG)。它还考察了QG与外国直接投资流入股票占GDP的百分比之间的关系。这项研究分为五个阶段。第一种方法基于全球治理指标(WGI),试图找出制度质量水平相似的国家。基于这一标准,我们使用聚类方法将欧盟成员国分为四组。第二步,我们利用质量体系综合指数值比较了2004 - 2020年欧盟成员国的制度质量水平。第三步评估外国直接投资占成员国国内生产总值的百分比。由于存在较大差异,我们将其分为四组,按照FDI占GDP的百分比的升序排列。在分析的第四阶段,我们考察了FDI占GDP的比例与QG相似的国家群体之间的关系。最后,我们考察了欧盟28国FDI流入治理的六个单独维度的相关性。研究表明,欧盟成员国在使用WGI衡量的总体QG方面存在显著差异。统计分析的结果使我们能够积极地验证QG与FDI流入呈正相关的假设。最重要的部分变量是监管质量。本文的附加值来自于基于欧盟28国治理质量的相似性(通过治理的六个维度来衡量)对其进行分组,并证明其影响FDI流入。我们创建了治理质量价值的综合指数,以比较2004年至2020年成员国的机构质量水平。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the Impact of Innovative Economic Conditions on the Flow of Workers in the Labour Markets of the European Union Countries 创新经济条件对欧盟国家劳动力市场工人流动的影响分析
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.26
Grażyna Węgrzyn, Marcin Salamaga
The main purpose of the work is to present the results of empirical research on the impact of innovation levels in the economy on the structure of labour market flows. The analysis of the directions and scale of these flows makes it possible to discover important characteristics of the labour market and thus makes it possible to better construct and target policies to reduce unemployment or activate economically inactive people. The study uses data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and experimental job‑to‑job statistics for the European Union (EU) countries, covering the 2011–2019 period. We conducted research separately for selected groups of economies classified by their level of innovation, i.e. Innovation Leaders, Strong Innovators, Moderate Innovators, and Emerging Innovators. The results demonstrate that the structure of flows in a labour market depends on the innovation level of the respective economy. The main contribution of the study is that it identifies employee flow patterns in the labour markets of individual EU countries from the perspective of the innovation levels of their respective economies. Panel error correction models (ECM) and panel causality tests were used. In countries that are Innovation Leaders, an increase in participation in lifelong learning leads to a parallel increase in employee flow (EE) and job‑to‑job employee turnover. In countries that are Emerging Innovators, increasing participation in lifelong learning increases turnover, mainly among young people (15–24 age group).
本文的主要目的是展示经济创新水平对劳动力市场流动结构影响的实证研究结果。对这些流动的方向和规模进行分析,可以发现劳动力市场的重要特征,从而可以更好地制定和有针对性的政策,以减少失业或使非经济活动人口活跃起来。该研究使用的数据来自劳动力调查(LFS)和欧盟国家2011-2019年期间的实验性工作对工作统计数据。我们对按创新水平分类的经济体分别进行了研究,即创新领导者、强大创新者、中等创新者和新兴创新者。研究结果表明,劳动力市场的流动结构取决于各自经济体的创新水平。该研究的主要贡献在于,它从欧盟各国经济创新水平的角度,确定了欧盟各国劳动力市场的雇员流动模式。采用面板误差修正模型(ECM)和面板因果检验。在创新领导者的国家,终身学习参与率的提高导致员工流动(EE)和工作对工作的员工流动的平行增加。在新兴的创新者国家,越来越多地参与终身学习增加了人员流动率,主要是年轻人(15-24岁年龄组)。
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引用次数: 0
The Day‑of‑the‑Week Anomaly in Light of the COVID–19 Pandemic on an Example of Selected OMX Indices 以OMX指数为例分析COVID-19大流行背景下的周中日异常
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-27 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.16
Monika Bolek, Agata Gniadkowska-Szymańska, Katerina Lyroudi
This paper analyzes market efficiency (EMH) with the day‑of‑the‑week effect and the changes that might appear after the outbreak of the COVID–19 pandemic, based on the example of the OMX Exchange and its indices. Before the pandemic, only the OMX Baltic All‑share index was efficient; during the COVID–19 pandemic, the OMXCPI Index, which represents the Copenhagen stock market, was not affected by the day‑of‑the‑week anomaly. The change in market efficiency was observed in relation to the periods before and during the pandemic, and additionally between specific days of the week. The value added of this paper is related to the evidence that COVID–19 influenced market efficiency but not the quality of trading.
本文以OMX交易所及其指数为例,分析了考虑周效的市场效率(EMH)以及新冠肺炎疫情爆发后可能出现的变化。在大流行之前,只有OMX波罗的海全股指数是有效的;在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,代表哥本哈根股市的OMXCPI指数不受每周几日异常的影响。观察到市场效率的变化与大流行之前和期间以及一周中特定日期之间的变化有关。本文的增加值与COVID-19影响市场效率而不影响交易质量的证据有关。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Comparative Economic Research-Central and Eastern Europe
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