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The United States–China Trade War: Timeline, Consequences, and Prospects for the US Economy. An Analysis Based on the Textile Industry 中美贸易战:美国经济的时间线、后果和前景。基于纺织行业的分析
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.08
Ewa Stawasz-grabowska, Justyna Wieloch
In this paper, we investigate the scale of the drop in American imports after it imposed punitive tariffs on Chinese goods. Our analysis spans the whole period of Donald Trump’s presidency (January 2017 – January 2021). In contrast to existing studies, which are mainly devoted to the impact of reduced trade flows on the key macroeconomic indicators, we focus on the specific market of textile products, which was among the most affected by the protectionism measures. The quantitative analysis allows us to conclude that the imposed duties severely hit the textile industry, bringing a noticeable drop in US imports of selected groups of products from China. Furthermore, the review of long‑term consequences indicates that the ongoing trade war has not only adversely affected the macroeconomic fundamentals of the US economy, but it is also likely to have a long‑lasting impact on global supply and production chains.
在本文中,我们研究了美国对中国商品征收惩罚性关税后进口下降的规模。我们的分析涵盖了唐纳德·特朗普总统任期的整个时期(2017年1月至2021年1月)。现有研究主要关注贸易流量减少对关键宏观经济指标的影响,与之相反,我们关注的是受保护主义措施影响最大的纺织产品这一特定市场。定量分析使我们得出结论,征收的关税严重打击了纺织业,导致美国从中国进口的特定产品明显下降。此外,对长期后果的评估表明,正在进行的贸易战不仅对美国经济的宏观经济基本面产生了不利影响,而且还可能对全球供应链和生产链产生长期影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of FDI in the Sustainable Development of the European Union 外国直接投资在欧盟可持续发展中的作用
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.02
J. Witkowska
This paper aims to examine the role of international business behavior in the sustainable development of the European Union (EU) and to answer two questions: (1) To what degree could international business contribute to the development of a “green economy” under the uncertainty caused by the COVID–19 pandemic?; (2) In what way could host countries attract “green” and socially responsible foreign direct investment (FDI)? The statistical analysis of international business involvement in environmentally harmful sectors/industries of the EU economy indicates that the share of such investments in most member states did not exceed 20% of the total FDI stocks between 2015 and 2020. The structure of investments changed in half of the analyzed countries towards sectors/industries that were less harmful to the environment. These changes and high requirements for domestic and foreign companies within the framework of the EU’s environmental policy allow us to conclude that international business contributed to the ecological transformation of the EU. On the other hand, changes in the structure of FDI stocks located abroad by the EU Member States in environmentally harmful sectors/industries were multidirectional. Six of the EU states remained net exporters of direct investment in these sectors/industries. The involvement of foreign direct investors in the new EU Member States in sectors that are important for implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda was not very high. It was characterized by high volatility and did not play a significant role in their economies. Attracting “green FDI” and socially responsible investments requires changes in policy towards foreign investors. They should include facilitating foreign investment, including investments aimed at sustainable development, incentives for investors to engage in “green investments”, and making investment agreements more flexible to combat climate change.
本文旨在考察国际商业行为在欧盟可持续发展中的作用,并回答两个问题:(1)在COVID-19大流行造成的不确定性下,国际商业对“绿色经济”发展的贡献程度如何?(2)东道国如何吸引“绿色”和对社会负责的外国直接投资?对欧盟经济中环境有害部门/行业的国际商业参与的统计分析表明,2015年至2020年期间,大多数成员国的此类投资份额不超过FDI总存量的20%。在所分析的国家中,有一半国家的投资结构发生了变化,转向对环境危害较小的部门/工业。这些变化和欧盟环境政策框架内对国内外公司的高要求使我们得出结论,国际商业促进了欧盟的生态转型。另一方面,欧盟成员国在对环境有害的部门/工业的国外外国直接投资存量结构的变化是多向的。6个欧盟国家仍然是这些部门/行业直接投资的净出口国。新欧盟成员国的外国直接投资者参与对实施2030年可持续发展目标(SDGs)至关重要的部门的程度并不高。它的特点是高度波动,在它们的经济中没有发挥重要作用。吸引“绿色外国直接投资”和社会责任投资需要改变对外国投资者的政策。它们应该包括促进外国投资,包括旨在可持续发展的投资,鼓励投资者参与“绿色投资”,以及使投资协议更加灵活以应对气候变化。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Direct Investment Inflow Dynamics: The Case of Central and Eastern Europe 外国直接投资流入动态:以中欧和东欧为例
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.03
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
This study investigates the dynamics of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) using panel data (1994–2020) analysis methods such as fixed effects, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and random effects. Specifically, the study examined what factors could account for the mixed pattern of FDI inflows into CEECs. The mixed results from the existing empirical literature on FDI inflow dynamics triggered the undertaking of this study to contribute to the ongoing debate on the subject. The study notes that infrastructural development, economic growth and domestic investment had a significant positive influence on FDI across all three panel data analysis methods. Other variables that were found to have had a significant positive effect on FDI include (1) complementarity between infrastructural and financial development (fixed effects, random effects), (2) trade openness (fixed effects) and (3) savings (random effects, FMOLS). A significant negative impact of the exchange rate on FDI was observed under the FMOLS. CEECs are therefore urged to implement policies to increase infrastructural development, financial development, trade openness and savings to enhance the inflow of FDI. Future studies should investigate the minimum threshold levels of the explanatory variables of FDI.
本文采用固定效应、完全修正普通最小二乘(FMOLS)和随机效应等面板数据(1994-2020)分析方法,研究了外商直接投资(FDI)流入中东欧国家(CEECs)的动态变化。具体而言,该研究审查了哪些因素可以解释外国直接投资流入中东欧国家的混合模式。现有实证文献中关于FDI流入动态的混合结果引发了本研究的开展,并对这一主题的持续辩论做出了贡献。研究指出,在所有三种面板数据分析方法中,基础设施发展、经济增长和国内投资对外国直接投资都有显著的正影响。其他对FDI有显著正向影响的变量包括:(1)基础设施和金融发展之间的互补性(固定效应,随机效应),(2)贸易开放(固定效应)和(3)储蓄(随机效应,FMOLS)。在FMOLS下观察到汇率对外国直接投资的重大负面影响。因此,我们敦促中东欧国家实施加强基础设施建设、金融发展、贸易开放和储蓄的政策,以促进外国直接投资流入。未来的研究应探讨外商直接投资解释变量的最低阈值水平。
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引用次数: 1
Mortality and Health Spending during the First Year of the COVID–19 Pandemic. Comparing Central, Eastern and Western Europe COVID-19大流行第一年的死亡率和卫生支出。比较中欧、东欧和西欧
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.04
Agata Kliber, E. Rychłowska‑Musiał
The article shows the relationships between the COVID and non‑COVID deaths during the first year of the pandemic, compared with the stringency of restrictions imposed and the compulsory spending on healthcare. We compare these relationships among European countries, analysing weekly data and applying cointegration models. Regarding the pandemic’s intensity, we split the period into two: March – August 2020 and September 2020 – February 2021. We find that, most often, if there was a relationship between the stringency index and COVID or non‑COVID mortality, it was usually positive and mortality driven. That suggests that although the governments tailored the restrictions to the growing mortality rate, they were unable to control the pandemic. No relationships, or negative ones, were most often found in these countries where the spending on healthcare was the highest (i.e., Northern and Western European countries). The biggest weekly changes in non‑COVID deaths during the second sub‑period were observed in the Central and Eastern European countries, where government healthcare expenditures per capita are the lowest.
本文展示了大流行第一年COVID和非COVID死亡之间的关系,并与实施的严格限制和强制性医疗保健支出进行了比较。我们比较了欧洲国家之间的这些关系,分析了每周数据并应用协整模型。关于大流行的强度,我们将这段时间分为两个阶段:2020年3月至8月和2020年9月至2021年2月。我们发现,大多数情况下,如果紧缩指数与COVID或非COVID死亡率之间存在关系,那么它通常是正的,并且是死亡率驱动的。这表明,尽管各国政府针对不断增长的死亡率制定了限制措施,但它们无法控制疫情。在这些医疗保健支出最高的国家(即北欧和西欧国家),通常没有发现任何关系,或者是负相关关系。第二阶段非COVID - 19死亡人数每周变化最大的是中欧和东欧国家,这些国家的政府人均医疗支出最低。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of COVID–19 on the Level and Structure of Employment in European Union Countries 2019冠状病毒病对欧盟国家就业水平和结构的影响
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.05
M. Markowska, A. Sokołowski
The paper proposes methods that can be used to evaluate the changes in one year of any measurable phenomenon based on how it performed in previous years. The following economic sections are considered: Agriculture, forestry and fishing/Industry/Construction/Wholesale and retail trade, transport, accommodation and food services/Information and communication/Financial and insurance activities/Real estate activities/Professional, scientific and technical activities, including administrative and support services/Public administration, defence, education, human health and social work/Arts, entertainment and recreation; other service activities; activities of household and extra‑territorial organisations and bodies. The paper proposes a new method – called The Triple 2 Rule – to identify changes in employment time series. Trends and autoregressive models are estimated for the period 2008–2019, and 2020 forecasts are calculated. The difference between the forecasted and observed values for 2020 is treated as a measure of the impact of COVID–19. Dynamic cluster analysis based on 2008–2020 data is the second approach. The characteristics and changes in the composition of dynamic clusters give a picture of the impact of 2020. These changes can be considered to have been caused – at least partially – by the COVID–19 pandemic.
这篇论文提出了一些方法,可以根据前几年的表现来评估任何可测量现象在一年内的变化。考虑以下经济部门:农业、林业和渔业/工业/建筑/批发和零售贸易、运输、住宿和食品服务/信息和通信/金融和保险活动/房地产活动/专业、科学和技术活动,包括行政和支助服务/公共管理、国防、教育、人类健康和社会工作/艺术、娱乐和休闲;其他服务活动;家庭和域外组织和机构的活动。这篇论文提出了一种新的方法——被称为“三2规则”——来识别就业时间序列的变化。估计了2008-2019年期间的趋势和自回归模型,并计算了2020年的预测。2020年的预测值与实测值之间的差异被视为衡量COVID-19影响的指标。基于2008-2020年数据的动态聚类分析是第二种方法。动态集群的组成特征和变化为2020年的影响提供了一幅图景。可以认为,这些变化至少部分是由COVID-19大流行造成的。
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引用次数: 0
The Innovation Gap of National Innovation Systems in the European Union 欧盟国家创新体系的创新缺口
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.01
Edyta Dworak, M. Grzelak
The main aim of the paper is to assess the innovation gap between the national innovation systems (NIS) of the European Union (EU) and the average level of innovation of EU economies. The study takes into account NIS identified in the literature, i.e., (a) developed systems and (b) developing systems. In the theoretical part of the paper, the literature in the fields of NIS and the innovation gap is reviewed, the definitions and selected classifications of NIS around the world are presented, and the concept of the innovation gap between countries is defined. In the empirical part, the level of innovation in EU economies is assessed using Hellwig’s synthetic development indicator. In order to measure the level of innovation in individual NISs, arithmetic means of national values of the synthetic measure of development (innovation) are used. The innovation gap is calculated as the quotient between the level of innovation of individual NISs analyzed in the study and the average level of innovation in EU economies. The study covered 2010 and 2021. The paper formulates the following research hypothesis: the level of innovation in EU economies is determined by the type of NIS. Consequently, developing system countries are less innovative and, thus, are characterized by an innovation gap in relation to the EU average. The results of the study confirm the hypothesis. The relationship between the innovation level of the EU economies and the type of NIS, as well as the assessment of the innovation gap between the national innovation systems of the EU and the average level of innovation of the EU economies, constitute the value‑added of the paper.
本文的主要目的是评估欧盟国家创新系统(NIS)与欧盟经济体平均创新水平之间的差距。该研究考虑了文献中确定的NIS,即(a)已开发系统和(b)正在开发的系统。在本文的理论部分,回顾了国内外关于创新缺口和创新创新领域的文献,介绍了国内外创新缺口的定义和分类,并对国家间创新缺口的概念进行了界定。在实证部分,采用Hellwig的综合发展指标对欧盟经济体的创新水平进行了评估。为了衡量各个国家创新水平,采用发展综合衡量(创新)的国家价值的算术平均数。创新差距计算为研究中分析的单个NISs的创新水平与欧盟经济体平均创新水平之间的商。该研究涵盖了2010年和2021年。本文提出以下研究假设:欧盟经济体的创新水平由NIS类型决定。因此,发展中系统国家的创新能力较弱,因此其特点是与欧盟平均水平相比存在创新差距。研究结果证实了这一假设。欧盟经济体的创新水平与国家创新系统类型之间的关系,以及欧盟国家创新系统与欧盟经济体平均创新水平之间的创新差距的评估,构成了本文的附加值。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of the Mobile Banking Application Ratings on the Vietnamese Bank Service Income 手机银行应用评级对越南银行服务收入的影响
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.26.09
Tien Phat Pham, B. Popesko, S. Hoang, Tri Ba Tran
Based on the relationship between fintech and bank performance and the role of mobile applications in bank operations, we investigate the impact of mobile banking application (MBA) ratings on bank service income. The quarterly data from the 15 biggest Vietnamese commercial banks in 2019–2020 were extracted from the public financial statements and the Google Play Store. The Generalized Least Squares method is applied to process the proposed regression models. We find a positive impact of MBA ratings on bank service income. We additionally explore the MBA quality of a large bank that does not meet customer expectations and how the interaction between MBA ratings and leverage harms bank service income. Finally, users generally appreciate the MBA quality, and COVID–19 does not affect the link between MBA ratings and bank service income. The study provides novel knowledge on customer behavior through MBA ratings and their effect on bank service income in an emerging country.
基于金融科技与银行绩效之间的关系以及移动应用程序在银行运营中的作用,我们研究了移动银行应用程序(MBA)评级对银行服务收入的影响。2019-2020年越南15家最大商业银行的季度数据摘自公开财务报表和谷歌Play Store。应用广义最小二乘法对所提出的回归模型进行了处理。我们发现MBA评级对银行服务收入有正向影响。我们还探讨了不符合客户期望的大型银行的MBA质量,以及MBA评级和杠杆之间的相互作用如何损害银行的服务收入。最后,用户普遍认可MBA的质量,COVID-19不影响MBA评级与银行服务收入之间的联系。该研究通过MBA评级及其对新兴国家银行服务收入的影响,提供了有关客户行为的新知识。
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引用次数: 0
Public Debt Management Experience: The Case of EECCA Countries 公共债务管理经验:以欧洲经共体国家为例
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-16 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.25.30
M. Dubovik, S. Mammadova, Anar Huseynov, Petar Pajkovic, Lesya Bozhko
The aim of this study is to cluster the most widely used public debt management tools peculiar to the EECCA (Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia) markets. Overall, the results show that the volume of EECCA countries’ public debt relative to GDP declined from 2000 to 2015. However, as their public debt enhanced after 2016 and until 2020, inclusive, the need to choose proper tools for its management intensified. The main cause of public debt in most EECCA countries is the state budget deficit (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan). The second place was taken by the balance of payments deficit (Armenia, Belarus). The only unique country was Azerbaijan, since it is likely to use public debt to finance economic and infrastructure development projects. No less interesting is that not all EECCA member states generate internal public debt. Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, and Uzbekistan have external public debt exclusively due to the lack of free resources that can be attracted from within the economy. In general, the investigation revealed that the main tool for managing internal public debt in EECCA countries is public bonds issued in national and foreign currencies. As for external public debt management, the top position is taken by external public bonds and international loans. The study has only two limitations: methodological and implementation. Other macroeconomic indicators of economic development were not considered, even though they may change the assessment of the effectiveness of the selected tools of public debt management. Meanwhile, the results can only be applied to those countries whose financial market is already formed and who have access to international financial markets. Otherwise, the tools of public debt management are limited.
本研究的目的是集中EECCA(东欧、高加索和中亚)市场特有的最广泛使用的公共债务管理工具。总体而言,研究结果表明,从2000年到2015年,EECCA国家的公共债务相对于GDP的规模有所下降。然而,随着2016年之后至2020年(包括2020年在内)这些国家的公共债务增加,选择适当的管理工具的必要性也随之增强。大多数非洲经共体国家公共债务的主要原因是国家预算赤字(哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、摩尔多瓦、俄罗斯、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦)。第二名是国际收支逆差(亚美尼亚、白俄罗斯)。唯一独特的国家是阿塞拜疆,因为它可能会利用公共债务为经济和基础设施发展项目提供资金。同样有趣的是,并非所有欧共体成员国都产生内部公共债务。吉尔吉斯斯坦、摩尔多瓦和乌兹别克斯坦的外债完全是由于缺乏可以从经济内部吸引的免费资源。总的来说,调查显示,非洲经共体国家管理内部公共债务的主要工具是以本国货币和外币发行的公共债券。对外公债管理以对外公债和国际贷款为主。这项研究只有两个局限性:方法和实施。没有考虑经济发展的其他宏观经济指标,尽管它们可能改变对选定的公共债务管理工具的有效性的评估。同时,这些结果只能适用于那些已经形成金融市场并能够进入国际金融市场的国家。否则,公共债务管理的工具是有限的。
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引用次数: 0
Implementing Sustainable Development Goals within the COVID–19 Pandemic Future Challenges for the 2030 Agenda 在2019冠状病毒病大流行背景下落实可持续发展目标
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-16 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.25.33
Anna Rydz‑Żbikowska
The COVID–19 pandemic has severely changed the world economy and jeopardized the implementation of Sustainable Development Goals on a large scale. Progress in meeting the goals of the 2030 Agenda has been significantly disrupted and stalled, undermining previous efforts of governments and nations. Furthermore, the economic slowdown of the global economy as an effect of COVID–19 has not improved the situation of climate change. The side effects of the pandemic are serious in every sphere of life, especially in the exacerbation of existing social inequalities, which results in threatening the achievements of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The aim of this article is to present the current status of SDG implementation with reference to the 2030 Agenda. Furthermore, it will examine the impact of COVID–19 on the progress of SDGs on a global scale, focusing mainly on the statistics from the Sustainable Development Report 2021. The purpose of the study is also to describe the results of the analysis that examines the major effects of the COVID–19 pandemic on European countries, including Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs), in terms of the implementation of SDGs. The study is limited to the context of Goal 1 (No poverty), Goal 2 (Zero hunger) and Goal 3 (Good health and well‑being). Another purpose, recognized as the added value of the research, is to identify the main challenges related to sustainable development while implementing the SDGs in the CEECs. Finally, the author investigates the post‑COVID priorities and pandemic strategic response plans. The research methods include an analysis of available documentary and literary sources on the topics in question, based on the development of relevant statistical surveys, and the deductive approach, to draw conclusions from the reports of international organizations. The research was based on the global indicator framework, which includes 231 unique indicators that monitored the stage and progress of the SDGs’ implementation. Global SDG Indicators Data Platform (SDG Indicators Database) was the source of data.
新冠肺炎疫情严重改变了世界经济格局,严重影响了可持续发展目标的大规模落实。实现《2030年议程》目标的进展受到严重干扰和停滞,破坏了各国政府和国家以前的努力。此外,受新冠肺炎疫情影响,全球经济增速放缓,但气候变化形势并未得到改善。这一流行病的副作用在生活的各个领域都很严重,特别是加剧了现有的社会不平等,从而威胁到可持续发展目标的实现。本文的目的是根据2030年议程介绍可持续发展目标实施的现状。此外,它将审查2019冠状病毒病对全球范围内可持续发展目标进展的影响,主要关注《2021年可持续发展报告》的统计数据。该研究的目的还在于描述分析结果,该分析审查了COVID-19大流行对包括中欧和东欧国家(CEECs)在内的欧洲国家在实施可持续发展目标方面的主要影响。这项研究仅限于目标1(无贫困)、目标2(零饥饿)和目标3(良好健康和福祉)的背景。研究的另一个附加价值是,确定在中东欧国家落实可持续发展目标过程中与可持续发展相关的主要挑战。最后,作者探讨了疫情后的优先事项和大流行战略应对计划。研究方法包括根据有关统计调查的发展情况,分析有关专题的现有文献和文献资料,以及从国际组织的报告中得出结论的演绎法。该研究基于全球指标框架,其中包括231个独特的指标,用于监测可持续发展目标实施的阶段和进展。全球可持续发展目标指标数据平台(可持续发展目标指标数据库)是数据来源。
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引用次数: 2
Knowledge‑Intensive Business Services Employment Structure and Economic Development in EU Regions 欧盟地区知识密集型商业服务业的就业结构与经济发展
IF 0.6 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-16 DOI: 10.18778/1508-2008.25.32
M. Markowska, P. Hlaváček, D. Strahl
The study presents the results of grouping EU NUTS 2 regions based on the share of employment in particular sectors (knowledge‑intensive high‑technology services, knowledge‑intensive market services and other knowledge‑intensive services), as well as GDP per capita, in 2008 and 2018. The grouping of regions was done by clustering methods (for structure data), including Ward’s method to determine the number of groups and the k‑means for the final partition. GDP groups were defined using a sample mean and one standard deviation. To assess the similarity of the classifications and, consequently, to evaluate correlations between the employment structures and the level and pace of economic development, the similarity measure for partitions proposed by Sokołowski was used.
该研究展示了2008年和2018年根据特定部门(知识密集型高科技服务业、知识密集型市场服务业和其他知识密集型服务业)的就业份额以及人均GDP对欧盟坚果2地区进行分组的结果。区域的分组是通过聚类方法完成的(对于结构数据),包括确定分组数量的Ward方法和最终划分的k - means。GDP组使用样本均值和一个标准差来定义。为了评估分类的相似性,从而评估就业结构与经济发展水平和速度之间的相关性,使用了Sokołowski提出的分区相似性度量。
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引用次数: 1
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Comparative Economic Research-Central and Eastern Europe
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