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Exploring the Underlying Drivers of Transnational Terrorism in Africa’s Sahel Region and Counter-terrorism Policy Interventions 探索非洲萨赫勒地区跨国恐怖主义的潜在驱动因素和反恐政策干预
Pub Date : 2021-09-13 DOI: 10.25159/2663-6581/7135
S. Zondi
Contemporary global affairs are faced with one of the most malicious phenomena in human history that has evolved over time at a pace unrivalled by its present outlook. Terrorism and the war against it have come to define the age in which we live. Threats of terrorist attacks and counterterrorism interventions are now part of our daily lives from Paris to Bamako, from New York to Ouagadougou and from Indonesia to Mauritania. Transnational terrorism is redefining the international security landscape and, in the Sahel, this phenomenon has made its existence felt on the security and stability of the region, owing largely to other pressing factors that the study identifies as preconditions and determinant drivers of terrorism. These preconditions and determinants are categorised into structural drivers, enabling drivers, stimulating drivers and precipitating drivers of terrorism. The paper is a qualitative analysis of existing literature on the drivers and counter-policy interventions on transnational terrorism in the Sahel. The paper begins by unpacking reasons for adopting the underlying drivers approach to terrorism in the Sahel. It then provides a brief background and origins of terror in the Sahel, followed by a detailed examination of the underlying drivers of terrorism in the region. The paper concludes by highlighting policy interventions ushered in by relevant actors in the region.
当代全球事务面临着人类历史上最恶劣的现象之一,这种现象随着时间的推移以其目前前景无法比拟的速度发展。恐怖主义和反对恐怖主义的战争已经决定了我们生活的时代。从巴黎到巴马科,从纽约到瓦加杜古,从印度尼西亚到毛里塔尼亚,恐怖主义袭击的威胁和反恐干预现在已成为我们日常生活的一部分。跨国恐怖主义正在重新定义国际安全格局,在萨赫勒地区,这种现象已经对该区域的安全与稳定造成影响,主要原因是研究报告认为是恐怖主义的先决条件和决定性驱动因素的其他紧迫因素。这些先决条件和决定因素可分为结构性驱动因素、促成驱动因素、刺激驱动因素和促成恐怖主义的驱动因素。本文是对萨赫勒地区跨国恐怖主义的驱动因素和反政策干预的现有文献进行定性分析。本文首先阐述了在萨赫勒地区采取“潜在驱动因素”方法应对恐怖主义的原因。然后简要介绍了萨赫勒地区恐怖主义的背景和起源,然后详细分析了该地区恐怖主义的潜在驱动因素。论文最后强调了该地区相关行为体引入的政策干预措施。
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引用次数: 0
Geopolitical Conflict around the Climate Emergency: The Case of Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon 围绕气候紧急情况的地缘政治冲突:巴西亚马逊森林砍伐的案例
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.25159/2663-6581/7365
Zoe Anna Elsner
The 2019 United Nations (UN) Climate Action Summit was challenged by controversies around increasing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Perspectives from the global community, the Brazilian government and indigenous and forest communities were heard, presenting a complex landscape of multi-scale approaches towards the rain forest. This paper takes the controversies made visible at the summit as a starting point to unravel the complex field of deforestation as an integrated part of the climate-change debate. Firstly, it will give some insights into the current situation in the Brazilian Amazon and the conflicting perspectives. Then it will explore theories that have emerged around climate justice and equity, leading to a call for “burden sharing” aimed at assistance in climate matters for the Global South. It will continue by showing such efforts and will comment on their insufficiencies. It will use relevant literature to showcase how the example of the Brazilian Amazon is representative of a complex set of systems created by the Global North, set on their agenda. These multifaceted theories show a complex field—with a multitude of stakeholders—that is hard to negotiate. In this light, the text concludes that the current discourse, vilifying Bolsonaro, falls short of adequately addressing the complexity of the issue.
2019年联合国气候行动峰会受到了围绕巴西亚马逊地区森林砍伐加剧的争议的挑战。会议听取了来自国际社会、巴西政府、土著居民和森林社区的观点,呈现了一个涉及多尺度方法的复杂景观。本文以峰会上可见的争议为起点,将森林砍伐这一复杂领域作为气候变化辩论的一个组成部分加以揭示。首先,它将对巴西亚马逊地区的现状和相互冲突的观点提供一些见解。然后,它将探讨围绕气候正义和公平出现的理论,导致呼吁“分担责任”,旨在为全球南方提供气候问题援助。它将继续展示这种努力,并评论其不足之处。它将使用相关文献来展示巴西亚马逊的例子如何代表全球北方创造的一套复杂的系统,并将其纳入其议程。这些多方面的理论显示了一个复杂的领域——有众多的利益相关者——这是很难谈判的。有鉴于此,文章的结论是,目前诋毁博尔索纳罗的言论未能充分解决这一问题的复杂性。
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引用次数: 0
Latin America and the Caribbean: Trends Outlook for Quarter 1, 2020 拉丁美洲和加勒比:2020年第1季度趋势展望
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.25159/2663-6581/9412
Arina Muresan
A mixed bag of opportunities and risks impacts on Latin America and the Caribbean’s (LAC) ability to create an image as a stable environment for business and investment, and this is further impacted by the enormous challenge posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. The increase in populist leaders, social unrest, corruption, climate change, drug-related issues and poverty have been a direct consequence of forced migration, organised crime, and governance maladministration. These issues have further impacted foreign policies of the LAC and its ability to converge as a region, and coupled with extreme climate events and fires devastating biodiverse areas, create a pessimistic image of otherwise optimistic societies. Many of the practical challenges in observing the LAC are due to language barriers and viewing the region through particular lenses that are already informed by an agenda. This report considers the regional developments through a discussion of pro-democracy protests and elections, security, gender trends, mass protests on rising costs and lack of service delivery for the marginalised, economic and financial matters, and heightening environmental concerns.
机遇与风险并存,影响了拉丁美洲和加勒比地区塑造稳定商业和投资环境形象的能力,而2019冠状病毒病大流行带来的巨大挑战进一步影响了这一能力。民粹主义领导人的增加、社会动荡、腐败、气候变化、毒品相关问题和贫困是被迫移民、有组织犯罪和治理不善的直接后果。这些问题进一步影响了拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的外交政策及其作为一个区域融合的能力,再加上极端气候事件和火灾破坏了生物多样性地区,造成了原本乐观的社会的悲观形象。观察LAC的许多实际挑战是由于语言障碍和通过议程已经告知的特定镜头来观察该区域。本报告通过讨论民主抗议和选举、安全、性别趋势、因成本上升和为边缘群体缺乏服务而进行的大规模抗议、经济和金融问题以及日益严重的环境问题来考虑区域发展。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Covid-19 and the Rise of Nationalism in Global Politics 新冠肺炎疫情的影响与全球政治中民族主义的兴起
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.25159/2663-6581/9408
Kagiso Mkonza
Prior to the global Covid-19 outbreak, the rise of nationalism had started to reshape global politics; nationalism in political discourse has strengthened across the world, especially in Europe through the successful rise of nationalist and populist political parties in Italy, Austria, Hungary, France, and Germany. Nationalist rhetoric has become normatively acceptable, from USA President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” to Brexit, and what others might label “populist” government positions driven by political parties of countries such as South Africa, China, and India.
在全球新冠肺炎疫情爆发之前,民族主义的兴起已经开始重塑全球政治;政治话语中的民族主义在世界范围内得到加强,特别是在欧洲,意大利、奥地利、匈牙利、法国和德国的民族主义和民粹主义政党成功崛起。从美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的“让美国再次伟大”到英国脱欧,以及南非、中国和印度等国政党推动的其他可能被称为“民粹主义”的政府立场,民族主义言论已成为规范可接受的。
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引用次数: 1
Echoes from the Global South: Reflections on the Student Public Intellectual, Hashtags and Neoliberal Themes in the #FeesMustFall Student Protests in South Africa (2015–2016) 来自全球南方的回响:对南非学生公共知识分子、标签和新自由主义主题的反思(2015-2016)
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.25159/2663-6581/4518
Quraysha Bibi Ismail Sooliman
The student protests in South Africa (2015–2016) reflected multiple dimensions of the crisis in higher education. These included epistemic, economic, political, psychological and social dimensions, raising serious concerns about the social compact in a post-1994 South Africa. What I examine through an eclectic approach which incorporates a first-person methodology and critical discourse analysis are the nuances and meanings that surfaced when students captured specific events and then articulated the events and the unfolding experiences in a vocabulary that provided a translation for their emotions and pain. This was done by the students by both linking and challenging protest hashtags or referencing texts that had only recently become accessible to them. As they learnt, they shared, and as they shared they realised that there were others experiencing similar challenges, such as the student protests in Chile (2011–2012). Sharing experiences is an act of solidarity and the benefits of solidarity strengthened the language needed to articulate what the students encountered in specific moments. I show that the South African students echoed issues that were found in the higher education protests in Chile, whilst also drawing lines in the sand with regards to the challenges in their own lived context. What is most significant for me is that in both the South African and Chilean protests an interesting phenomenon is evident that has not been acknowledged—this is the rise of the student-academic public intellectual. This paper highlights these developments to challenge the narrative of “uncivilised” and violent black students by contextualising and animating their articulations, questions and their understanding of the ideology and system that was suffocating them.
南非(2015-2016)的学生抗议活动反映了高等教育危机的多个维度。这些问题包括认识、经济、政治、心理和社会方面,引起人们对1994年后南非社会契约的严重关切。我通过一种兼容并蓄的方法,结合第一人称方法和批判性话语分析,研究了当学生捕捉特定事件,然后用一种为他们的情绪和痛苦提供翻译的词汇阐述事件和展开的经历时,所出现的细微差别和意义。这是由学生们通过链接和挑战抗议标签或引用最近才对他们开放的文本来完成的。他们在学习中分享,在分享中他们意识到其他人也面临着类似的挑战,比如智利的学生抗议活动(2011-2012年)。分享经验是一种团结的行为,团结的好处加强了表达学生在特定时刻所遇到的情况所需的语言。我指出,南非学生回应了智利高等教育抗议活动中发现的问题,同时也对自己生活环境中的挑战划清界限。对我来说最重要的是,在南非和智利的抗议活动中,有一个有趣的现象是显而易见的,但却没有得到承认——这就是学生-学术公共知识分子的兴起。本文强调了这些发展,通过将黑人学生的表达、问题和他们对窒息他们的意识形态和制度的理解语境化和动画化,来挑战“不文明”和暴力黑人学生的叙述。
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引用次数: 1
Can ASEAN Play a Leading Role in Resolving Myanmar’s Crisis? 东盟能否在解决缅甸危机中发挥主导作用?
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.25159/2663-6581/9406
K. Dlamini
On 2 March 2021 representatives from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states convened a meeting to discuss the situation in Myanmar following the military coup on 1 February 2021 where the Myanmar civilian government was toppled by the military junta. The outcome of the meeting did not deviate from the bloc’s traditional response of non-interference; they strongly encouraged all parties concerned to seek a peaceful solution through constructive dialogue and practical reconciliation in the interests of the people and their livelihood.
2021年3月2日,东南亚国家联盟(东盟)成员国代表召开会议,讨论2021年2月1日缅甸文职政府被军政府推翻的军事政变后的缅甸局势。会议的结果没有偏离欧盟不干涉内政的传统回应;他们强烈鼓励有关各方为了人民及其生计的利益,通过建设性对话和实际和解寻求和平解决办法。
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引用次数: 0
BRICS and the Economics of Terrorism 金砖国家与恐怖主义经济学
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.25159/2663-6581/8332
Bhaso Ndzendze
This article investigates the effect of security perceptions on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in the BRICS countries. To do so, it traces correlations between annual changes in BRICS countries’ scores in the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) and new FDI influxes over the 2008–2018 period. I note differences in correlations between GTI and new FDI; for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the Pearson r correlation scores were ?0.903, ?0.7783, ?0.2793, ?0.2766, and -0.6309, respectively. Thus, the apparent role of low terrorism as a prerequisite for new FDI influxes is most demonstrable for Brazil, Russia, and South Africa. It is less significant for India and China, though still adversely correlated. The article discusses the causes of these intra-BRICS differences through the prism of the prevalent literature and case-specific factors and explores their implications. Examining whether terrorism is enough of an economic threat to justify allowing potentially intrusive BRICS-wide cooperation, this study’s findings imply that terrorism has not been a weighty enough threat to garner policy support behind such cooperation in the time studied.
本文研究了安全观念对金砖国家外来直接投资(FDI)的影响。为此,它追踪了金砖国家在全球恐怖主义指数(GTI)中的年度变化与2008年至2018年期间新流入的外国直接投资之间的相关性。我注意到GTI与新增FDI之间的相关性存在差异;巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非的Pearson r相关评分分别为- 0.903、- 0.7783、- 0.2793、- 0.2766和-0.6309。因此,低恐怖主义水平作为新的外国直接投资流入的先决条件的明显作用,在巴西、俄罗斯和南非最为明显。这对印度和中国来说不那么重要,尽管仍然呈负相关。本文通过流行文献和具体案例因素来讨论这些金砖国家内部差异的原因,并探讨其含义。本研究考察了恐怖主义是否足以构成经济威胁,以证明允许潜在的侵入性金砖国家范围内的合作是合理的,研究结果表明,在研究的时间内,恐怖主义的威胁还不够大,不足以获得此类合作背后的政策支持。
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引用次数: 0
What kind of post COVID-19 Recovery? Unpacking the World Economic Forum’s Reset 2021 report. COVID-19后的恢复是什么样的?解读世界经济论坛的《2021年重置》报告。
Pub Date : 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.25159/2663-6581/9407
Ashraf Patel
The global Covid-19 pandemic crisis is the gravest global disaster of modern times. Above all it is important to reflect on the sustainability of the mode of hyper globalization of the past three decades, which was witnessed throughmultiple interconnectedness of global-regional-national-local value chains, enabled by the internet digital economy, offshoring, outsourcing, rapid urbanization and a borderless world of travel and commerce. It is Globalization that enabled the rapid ‘warp like’ spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, destroying over 2 million lives and disrupting every nation and economy.  Humanity was presented with a unique opportunity to cooperate with the United Nations (UN) around a common historical crisis. Sadly, it rapidly descended into a mostly rabid nationalistic form of vaccine nationalism and selfishness, which became the moniker of international relations, especially with regards to the Covid-19 vaccine development, starkly divided by geopolitics and mistrust
新冠肺炎全球大流行危机是现代最严重的全球性灾难。最重要的是,反思过去三十年超全球化模式的可持续性,这是通过互联网数字经济、离岸外包、外包、快速城市化以及无国界的旅游和商业世界实现的全球-区域-国家-地方价值链的多重互联互通所见证的。正是全球化导致了新冠肺炎大流行的快速“扭曲”传播,摧毁了200多万人的生命,扰乱了每个国家和经济。人类面临着与联合国就共同的历史危机进行合作的独特机会。可悲的是,它迅速演变成一种狂热的疫苗民族主义和自私的民族主义形式,成为国际关系的代名词,特别是在Covid-19疫苗开发方面,地缘政治和不信任使其明显分裂
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引用次数: 0
BAPA+40: South African and African Lessons BAPA+40:南非和非洲课程
Pub Date : 2020-03-18 DOI: 10.25159/2663-6581/6920
Arina Muresan
The Second High-Level United Nations (UN) Conference on South-South Cooperation (also known as BAPA+40), held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, from 20 to 22 March 2019, promised to reinvigorate efforts to further achieve and implement South-South cooperation (SSC). Forty years on, the Global South is shaping its image as a solutions provider. Immense strides have been made in improving access to allow a multitude of state and non-state actors to cooperate, while broadening and deepening modes of cooperation and facilitating the exchange of knowledge and transfer of technology, thus moving beyond the simplistic view that developing countries require aid to function and move forward. However, noting these symbolic strides, the Global South should move forward by building understanding of monitoring and evaluation (ME integrating multi-stakeholder models; improving the visibility of peace and security in South-South programming; and building effective communications systems.
2019年3月20日至22日在阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯举行的第二届联合国南南合作高级别会议(也称为BAPA+40)承诺重振努力,进一步实现和实施南南合作。40年过去了,全球南方正在塑造其作为解决方案提供者的形象。在扩大和深化合作模式以及促进知识交流和技术转让方面,发展中国家已经取得了巨大的进步,从而超越了发展中国家需要援助才能发挥作用和向前发展的简单观点。然而,注意到这些象征性的进步,全球南方应该通过建立对监测和评估(ME整合多利益攸关方模式;提高南南方案拟订中和平与安全的可见度;建立有效的通信系统。
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引用次数: 0
Appraising the Dynamics of South-South and Triangular Cooperation: Lessons beyond BAPA+40 评估南南合作和三方合作的动态:BAPA+40之后的经验教训
Pub Date : 2020-03-18 DOI: 10.25159/2663-6581/6929
Faith Mabera
On 22 May 2019, the Institute for Global Dialogue (IGD), in association with the University of South Africa (Unisa) and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung (FES), co-hosted a dialogue titled “Appraising the Dynamics of South-South Cooperation and Triangular Cooperation: Lessons beyond the BAPA+40 Conference”. The event reflected on the international development arena and global development agenda in the context of the United Nations (UN) Conference on Technical Cooperation among Developing Countries (TCDC) held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, from 30 August to 12 September 1978, and the Second High-Level UN Conference on South-South Cooperation (SSC) also held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, from 20 to 22 March 2019, otherwise known as BAPA+40. The dialogue built on research drawn from the participation of the IGD at BAPA+40 and its engagement in a number of side events in Buenos Aires. The event brought together wide-ranging participants including scholars, academics, diplomats, government representatives, media and civil society.
2019年5月22日,全球对话研究所(IGD)与南非大学(Unisa)和弗里德里希·艾伯特基金会(FES)联合举办了一场题为“评估南南合作和三方合作的动态:BAPA+40会议之外的经验教训”的对话。该活动在1978年8月30日至9月12日在阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯举行的联合国发展中国家间技术合作会议(TCDC)和2019年3月20日至22日在阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯举行的第二次联合国南南合作高级别会议(也称为BAPA+40)的背景下,反思了国际发展舞台和全球发展议程。对话建立在IGD参加BAPA+40会议及其在布宜诺斯艾利斯参加的一些会外活动的研究基础上。该活动汇集了广泛的参与者,包括学者、学者、外交官、政府代表、媒体和民间社会。
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引用次数: 3
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