Pub Date : 2020-11-16DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1839166
T. Chong, Xiaoyang Li, Cornelia Yip
Abstract Starting in December 2019, COVID-19 had been spreading across the world on a limited scale for a quarter until March 2020 when the death toll in the countries comprising the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) finally started to mount. However, despite the relatively late outbreak in the region, the ASEAN market had already plunged along with other regional markets across the world amid heightened concern about the economic impact of the biggest viral killer in 2020. In this paper, we examine the economic impact of coronavirus on different ASEAN countries separately by analysing their respective economic figures for the first two quarters in 2020. This allows us to delineate the overall picture of its impact on ASEAN countries as well as to provide an estimation for the future outlook of the ASEAN economic bloc. We propose that the slowing growth, the sluggish recovery of trade and the cross-country transmission of unemployment are three significant risk factors that the ASEAN economies are faced with.
{"title":"The impact of COVID-19 on ASEAN","authors":"T. Chong, Xiaoyang Li, Cornelia Yip","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1839166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1839166","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Starting in December 2019, COVID-19 had been spreading across the world on a limited scale for a quarter until March 2020 when the death toll in the countries comprising the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) finally started to mount. However, despite the relatively late outbreak in the region, the ASEAN market had already plunged along with other regional markets across the world amid heightened concern about the economic impact of the biggest viral killer in 2020. In this paper, we examine the economic impact of coronavirus on different ASEAN countries separately by analysing their respective economic figures for the first two quarters in 2020. This allows us to delineate the overall picture of its impact on ASEAN countries as well as to provide an estimation for the future outlook of the ASEAN economic bloc. We propose that the slowing growth, the sluggish recovery of trade and the cross-country transmission of unemployment are three significant risk factors that the ASEAN economies are faced with.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":"9 1","pages":"166 - 185"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1839166","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47948674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-01DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1844609
Xiaoguang Liu, Yuan-Chi Liu, Yan Yan
Abstract The year 2020 is bound to be a very special year in the history of China’s and the world’s economy. The sudden onslaught of COVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on China’s macroeconomy and its market participants. Also, the global economic and trade system has tipped into the most severe downturn since World War II. The macro stimulus policy packages launched by various countries are of an epic scale, in a way rarely seen before. China was the first to be hit by the epidemic, to contain the epidemic, and to resume work and production. China’s economic recovery and reconstruction are of landmark and leading significance for the global economy. The content of this report mainly includes the following two aspects: one is to forecast the basic trend and recovery potential of China’s economy under the impact of the epidemic; the other is to provide applicable policy recommendations for post-epidemic economic rehabilitation and its mid- to long-term development. We focus on four issues: the progress and nature of China’s economic recovery at the current stage; major challenges and risks facing China’s economic recovery in the next stage; how to design policies of a sizable scale and policy mechanisms to achieve desired effects; and whether the existing policy is sufficient to cope with various risks and challenges, to enhance resilience and re-consolidate economic foundations. In view of this, the report presents the forecast and prospect of China’s core macroeconomic indicators in 2020 and puts forward policy recommendations accordingly.
{"title":"China macroeconomic report 2020: China’s macroeconomy is on the rebound under the impact of COVID-19","authors":"Xiaoguang Liu, Yuan-Chi Liu, Yan Yan","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1844609","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1844609","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The year 2020 is bound to be a very special year in the history of China’s and the world’s economy. The sudden onslaught of COVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on China’s macroeconomy and its market participants. Also, the global economic and trade system has tipped into the most severe downturn since World War II. The macro stimulus policy packages launched by various countries are of an epic scale, in a way rarely seen before. China was the first to be hit by the epidemic, to contain the epidemic, and to resume work and production. China’s economic recovery and reconstruction are of landmark and leading significance for the global economy. The content of this report mainly includes the following two aspects: one is to forecast the basic trend and recovery potential of China’s economy under the impact of the epidemic; the other is to provide applicable policy recommendations for post-epidemic economic rehabilitation and its mid- to long-term development. We focus on four issues: the progress and nature of China’s economic recovery at the current stage; major challenges and risks facing China’s economic recovery in the next stage; how to design policies of a sizable scale and policy mechanisms to achieve desired effects; and whether the existing policy is sufficient to cope with various risks and challenges, to enhance resilience and re-consolidate economic foundations. In view of this, the report presents the forecast and prospect of China’s core macroeconomic indicators in 2020 and puts forward policy recommendations accordingly.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":"8 1","pages":"395 - 435"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1844609","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41939086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-14DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2022.2075602
Zhitao Lin, Xingwang Qian
Abstract This paper examines how US monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) affects RMB deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) and how this effect is influenced by China’s capital controls, the RMB exchange rate regime, and international reserves that constrain the transmitting channel of US MPU shocks. Our findings show that US MPU has a spill-over effect and creates deviations from RMB CIP. Capital controls insulate uncertainty shocks and alleviate the US MPU spill-over effect. There are some evidence that international reserves alleviate and the liberalised RMB exchange rate regime magnifies the spill-over effect. However, their effects become insignificant in the presence of capital controls. Moreover, the US MPU effect on RMB CIP deviations becomes prominent after the 2008 global financial crisis.
{"title":"US monetary policy uncertainty and RMB deviations from covered interest parity","authors":"Zhitao Lin, Xingwang Qian","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2022.2075602","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2022.2075602","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines how US monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) affects RMB deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) and how this effect is influenced by China’s capital controls, the RMB exchange rate regime, and international reserves that constrain the transmitting channel of US MPU shocks. Our findings show that US MPU has a spill-over effect and creates deviations from RMB CIP. Capital controls insulate uncertainty shocks and alleviate the US MPU spill-over effect. There are some evidence that international reserves alleviate and the liberalised RMB exchange rate regime magnifies the spill-over effect. However, their effects become insignificant in the presence of capital controls. Moreover, the US MPU effect on RMB CIP deviations becomes prominent after the 2008 global financial crisis.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":"11 1","pages":"75 - 98"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41884613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-07DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1800263
Gedion Onyango
Abstract This article demonstrates that whistleblowing often receives little attention in public administration due to ambivalence regarding administrative roles held by public administrators, the fluid scalar chain and horizontal linkages, and competitive and intricate public, organisational and private interests. Drawing on comparative analysis to elucidate the broader scope of anti-corruption reforms and whistleblowing in public administration, the article explores the influence of the administrative culture on the relationship between whistleblowing behaviours and implementation of anti-corruption reforms in public administration in Kenya. It illustrates how bureaucratic oversight mechanisms such as internal auditing procedures and ethical guidelines tend to underperform where administrative environments largely feature autocratic bureaucratic authority, parochial management styles and centralised decision-making processes. Despite the functional specialty of public institutions, these cultural composites potentially elicit administrative behaviours that generally make whistleblowing anti-organisational, anti-social and an outright illegality in public administration. The absence of whistleblowing legislation or weak whistleblowing laws exacerbate these conditions. Whistleblowing becomes even more complex at the local-state level as social networks and working groups tend to be strengthened by the collectivist associational culture in public administration. Consequently, non-performance of anti-corruption reforms were found to stem from the collective chastisement of whistleblowing practices in public organisations in Kenya. Furthermore, institutional deficits typical in local-state administration seemingly made it riskier for potential whistleblowers to come forth, mainly attendant to loose and inconsistent legislation on corruption. Therefore, to enhance whistleblowing, there is a need to insulate potential whistleblowers from legal retaliation, including cultural retaliations that come in forms of emotional and professional ‘attacks’.
{"title":"Whistleblowing behaviours and anti-corruption approaches in public administration in Kenya","authors":"Gedion Onyango","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1800263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1800263","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article demonstrates that whistleblowing often receives little attention in public administration due to ambivalence regarding administrative roles held by public administrators, the fluid scalar chain and horizontal linkages, and competitive and intricate public, organisational and private interests. Drawing on comparative analysis to elucidate the broader scope of anti-corruption reforms and whistleblowing in public administration, the article explores the influence of the administrative culture on the relationship between whistleblowing behaviours and implementation of anti-corruption reforms in public administration in Kenya. It illustrates how bureaucratic oversight mechanisms such as internal auditing procedures and ethical guidelines tend to underperform where administrative environments largely feature autocratic bureaucratic authority, parochial management styles and centralised decision-making processes. Despite the functional specialty of public institutions, these cultural composites potentially elicit administrative behaviours that generally make whistleblowing anti-organisational, anti-social and an outright illegality in public administration. The absence of whistleblowing legislation or weak whistleblowing laws exacerbate these conditions. Whistleblowing becomes even more complex at the local-state level as social networks and working groups tend to be strengthened by the collectivist associational culture in public administration. Consequently, non-performance of anti-corruption reforms were found to stem from the collective chastisement of whistleblowing practices in public organisations in Kenya. Furthermore, institutional deficits typical in local-state administration seemingly made it riskier for potential whistleblowers to come forth, mainly attendant to loose and inconsistent legislation on corruption. Therefore, to enhance whistleblowing, there is a need to insulate potential whistleblowers from legal retaliation, including cultural retaliations that come in forms of emotional and professional ‘attacks’.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":"9 1","pages":"230 - 254"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1800263","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44190855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-02DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1780818
K. Song, Le Xia
Abstract This research empirically examines the impact of China’s renminbi (RMB) Bilateral Swap Agreements (BSAs) on the usage of the currency in cross-border trade transactions. By using a unique dataset from SWIFT including cross-border settlement messages of 91 countries/regions between October 2010 and November 2015, we confirm that the signing of an RMB BSA helps increase the number, value and proportion of the RMB settlement in cross-border trade. Our results are robust with respect to the choice of different models, including multi-level mixed model, two-stage regression model, and difference-in-difference model. In addition to justifying the effectiveness of China’s BSA-signing strategy to promote the RMB usage in trade settlement, our results clarify that the signing of those RMB BSAs is not purely for China’s political ends as some scholars claim.
{"title":"Bilateral swap agreement and renminbi settlement in cross-border trade","authors":"K. Song, Le Xia","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1780818","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1780818","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This research empirically examines the impact of China’s renminbi (RMB) Bilateral Swap Agreements (BSAs) on the usage of the currency in cross-border trade transactions. By using a unique dataset from SWIFT including cross-border settlement messages of 91 countries/regions between October 2010 and November 2015, we confirm that the signing of an RMB BSA helps increase the number, value and proportion of the RMB settlement in cross-border trade. Our results are robust with respect to the choice of different models, including multi-level mixed model, two-stage regression model, and difference-in-difference model. In addition to justifying the effectiveness of China’s BSA-signing strategy to promote the RMB usage in trade settlement, our results clarify that the signing of those RMB BSAs is not purely for China’s political ends as some scholars claim.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":"8 1","pages":"355 - 373"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1780818","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44614967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-02DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1777681
I. Korhonen
{"title":"Introduction","authors":"I. Korhonen","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1777681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1777681","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":"8 1","pages":"289 - 290"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1777681","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47703924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-02DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1780831
Guonan Ma, Yao Wang
Abstract A global renminbi (RMB) needs to be backed by a large, deep and liquid RMB market with a world-class Chinese government bond (CGB) market as its core. It also needs the support from a bigger and more open domestic stock market. China’s CGB market is the sixth largest local currency sovereign bond market in the world. By transforming the non-tradable, captive central bank liabilities into homogeneous and tradable CGBs through cutting the still high Chinese reserve requirements by 1/3, the size of the CGB market can rise by 40%, boosting market liquidity while trimming distortions to the banking system. Also, policy bank bonds may attract foreign investor demand. Finally, a bigger and more open domestic A-share stock market also helps expand the RMB assets in the international investor portfolio. With both bigger bond and stock markets and their higher foreign ownerships following market opening, the combined sum of Chinese domestic bonds and A-shares held by foreign investors may increase five folds during 2018–2025, lifting the RMB asset position in global investor portfolios, facilitating a potential global RMB, while promoting a deeper and more efficient Chinese domestic capital market. This process of liberalising cross-border portfolio capital flows for non-resident investors may bring both risks and benefits to the Chinese economy.
{"title":"Can the Chinese domestic bond and stock markets facilitate a globalising renminbi?","authors":"Guonan Ma, Yao Wang","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1780831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1780831","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A global renminbi (RMB) needs to be backed by a large, deep and liquid RMB market with a world-class Chinese government bond (CGB) market as its core. It also needs the support from a bigger and more open domestic stock market. China’s CGB market is the sixth largest local currency sovereign bond market in the world. By transforming the non-tradable, captive central bank liabilities into homogeneous and tradable CGBs through cutting the still high Chinese reserve requirements by 1/3, the size of the CGB market can rise by 40%, boosting market liquidity while trimming distortions to the banking system. Also, policy bank bonds may attract foreign investor demand. Finally, a bigger and more open domestic A-share stock market also helps expand the RMB assets in the international investor portfolio. With both bigger bond and stock markets and their higher foreign ownerships following market opening, the combined sum of Chinese domestic bonds and A-shares held by foreign investors may increase five folds during 2018–2025, lifting the RMB asset position in global investor portfolios, facilitating a potential global RMB, while promoting a deeper and more efficient Chinese domestic capital market. This process of liberalising cross-border portfolio capital flows for non-resident investors may bring both risks and benefits to the Chinese economy.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":"8 1","pages":"291 - 311"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1780831","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44624163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-01DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1775374
Yinggang Zhou, Xin Cheng, Yiming Wang
Abstract Using an innovative network approach, this study constructs new indices of the renminbi (RMB) internationalisation and presents strong evidence of the RMB’s growing influence globally and regionally. We identify networks of exchange rate spill-overs and examine time-varying spill-over intensities among the RMB and world major currencies of G20 members as well as currencies related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Shocks from the RMB generate intensifying spill-overs across currency networks. The role of the RMB in the networks has increased steadily over time. Our findings highlight that the RMB has become increasingly important since China has initiated the marketisation reform of its currency and proposed to build the modern Belt and Road.
{"title":"Measuring the importance of RMB in the exchange rate spill-over networks: new indices of RMB internationalisation","authors":"Yinggang Zhou, Xin Cheng, Yiming Wang","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1775374","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1775374","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using an innovative network approach, this study constructs new indices of the renminbi (RMB) internationalisation and presents strong evidence of the RMB’s growing influence globally and regionally. We identify networks of exchange rate spill-overs and examine time-varying spill-over intensities among the RMB and world major currencies of G20 members as well as currencies related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Shocks from the RMB generate intensifying spill-overs across currency networks. The role of the RMB in the networks has increased steadily over time. Our findings highlight that the RMB has become increasingly important since China has initiated the marketisation reform of its currency and proposed to build the modern Belt and Road.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":"8 1","pages":"331 - 354"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1775374","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43266240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-26DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1763544
W. Li, T. He
Abstract This study explores what determines the selection of strategies by governments responding to COVID-19. To answer the question, we propose concepts of individual utility and societal utility and build a simple model. By applying the model, we predict that countries with an individualist culture would adopt more passive strategies while countries with a collectivist culture would adopt more active strategies. The comparison between strategies adopted in China and in the United Kingdom supports the prediction. Furthermore, as the spread of COVID-19 virus continues, governments’ response may change and individualist countries may switch to more active strategies. So we extend our model to incorporate the dynamics of strategy selection, and explain the switch between passive and active strategies. We then predict in particular that facing the unexpected infections and deaths, the countries with an individualist culture would temporally adopt a relatively more active strategy responding to COVID-19. The evidence from Spain shows the dynamic feature of strategy selection as predicted by our model.
{"title":"Determinations of strategy responding to COVID-19","authors":"W. Li, T. He","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1763544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1763544","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study explores what determines the selection of strategies by governments responding to COVID-19. To answer the question, we propose concepts of individual utility and societal utility and build a simple model. By applying the model, we predict that countries with an individualist culture would adopt more passive strategies while countries with a collectivist culture would adopt more active strategies. The comparison between strategies adopted in China and in the United Kingdom supports the prediction. Furthermore, as the spread of COVID-19 virus continues, governments’ response may change and individualist countries may switch to more active strategies. So we extend our model to incorporate the dynamics of strategy selection, and explain the switch between passive and active strategies. We then predict in particular that facing the unexpected infections and deaths, the countries with an individualist culture would temporally adopt a relatively more active strategy responding to COVID-19. The evidence from Spain shows the dynamic feature of strategy selection as predicted by our model.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":"9 1","pages":"135 - 147"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1763544","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44106637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-18DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1762830
Jennifer T. Lai, P. McNelis
Abstract This paper shows that signals from the offshore China spot market for the Chinese renminbi of the Hong Kong SAR (listed as CNH) directly affect the volatility of share prices of Chinese banks and the overall risks of Chinese banking stability. This is especially so amid heightened uncertainty about global trade or the People’s Republic of China. Thus, the CNH market volatility is a leading indicator of onshore Chinese banking sector volatility. Our results suggest that further offshore exchange market movements arising out of news such as increasing trade friction with the United States will generate greater volatility in the Chinese banking sector. Far from being a shock absorber for the Chinese financial system, the CNH market appears to be a shock transmitter of risk from offshore economic policy uncertainty to the Chinese banking system.
{"title":"Offshore fears and onshore risk: exchange rate pressures and bank volatility contagion in China","authors":"Jennifer T. Lai, P. McNelis","doi":"10.1080/20954816.2020.1762830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/20954816.2020.1762830","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper shows that signals from the offshore China spot market for the Chinese renminbi of the Hong Kong SAR (listed as CNH) directly affect the volatility of share prices of Chinese banks and the overall risks of Chinese banking stability. This is especially so amid heightened uncertainty about global trade or the People’s Republic of China. Thus, the CNH market volatility is a leading indicator of onshore Chinese banking sector volatility. Our results suggest that further offshore exchange market movements arising out of news such as increasing trade friction with the United States will generate greater volatility in the Chinese banking sector. Far from being a shock absorber for the Chinese financial system, the CNH market appears to be a shock transmitter of risk from offshore economic policy uncertainty to the Chinese banking system.","PeriodicalId":44280,"journal":{"name":"Economic and Political Studies-EPS","volume":"8 1","pages":"374 - 393"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/20954816.2020.1762830","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44008632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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