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News coverage of Confucius Institutes in the pre-Trump era 前特朗普时代孔子学院的新闻报道
IF 2.4 4区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-02-13 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1870025
M. Akhtaruzzaman, N. Berg, D. Lien, Ying Wu
Abstract A novel dataset is presented that reveals a general pattern of declining favourability in news stories about Confucius Institutes (CIs) from 2006 through 2015 in six English-speaking countries: the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, India and Kenya. There are significant differences in mean favourability and time trends across countries, however. Decreasing trends in favourability are observed in the US and Canada, in particular, whereas Kenya and India’s time trends are nil or possibly increasing. We report empirical models of favourability conditional on GDP per capita, trade with China and the number of CIs across country-year observations. Consistent with Pew polling data, our data reveal an interesting pair of conflicting income effects. High-income countries tend to be more negative and less positive on CIs than low-income countries overall. Within-country positive shocks to real GDP per capita, however, are positively associated with favourability after cross-country differences in income levels are absorbed by country fixed effects. The number of CIs in a country has mixed effects on the favourability of news coverage about CIs across country-year observations. Despite billions of dollars spent on public diplomacy by the Chinese government, our findings suggest that its return on investment in public diplomacy in the form of CIs may not be as expected.
摘要:本文提出了一个新的数据集,揭示了2006年至2015年六个英语国家(美国、英国、加拿大、澳大利亚、印度和肯尼亚)对孔子学院的新闻报道支持率下降的总体模式。然而,各国在平均有利度和时间趋势方面存在显著差异。特别是在美国和加拿大,观察到有利的趋势下降,而肯尼亚和印度的时间趋势为零或可能增加。我们报告了基于人均GDP、对华贸易和国别年度观察的ci数量的实证模型。与皮尤民调数据一致,我们的数据揭示了一对有趣的相互冲突的收入效应。总体而言,高收入国家在ci方面往往比低收入国家更消极,更不积极。然而,在收入水平的跨国差异被国家固定效应所吸收之后,国内对实际人均国内生产总值的积极冲击与有利程度呈正相关。一个国家的ci数量对跨国家-年度观察的ci新闻报道的有利程度有不同的影响。尽管中国政府在公共外交上花费了数十亿美元,但我们的研究结果表明,其以CIs形式进行的公共外交投资回报可能不如预期。
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引用次数: 1
Is the Confucian ethic a hindrance to economic development in China? 儒家伦理是否阻碍了中国的经济发展?
IF 2.4 4区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-02-13 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1864840
Jie Zhang
Abstract Opinions differ among academics concerning the relationship between the Confucian ethic and China’s economic development. This research reveals that the Confucian ethic originated from the practical demand for guaranteeing the smooth operation of households. Later, it developed into a coordinator between the government and individuals, thus bringing about the institutional compromise between the family system and bureaucracy, which is the foundation of the market system specific to China. In the future, the successful development of a market economy will be largely dependent on whether an institutional equilibrium between the government and market forces can be reached, and this will be strongly related to the Confucian ethic. This paper holds that Confucianism involves inherent conflicts between the macro and the micro level. At the macro level, Confucianism sets very high standards for wealth and morals, but at the micro level it pays little attention to how to create wealth. Accordingly, for the ongoing market reform, it is rational to continue introducing Protestant ethics-oriented Western systems since they are more advantageous in terms of increasing wealth accumulation. However, this process lacks stability and inclusiveness and is thus prone to the separation of wealth from morals. This is exactly where Confucianism should step in. This paper concludes that the long separation of wealth accumulation from the Chinese cultural traditions has become the biggest obstacle to China’s economic growth. In the face of intensified social and economic conflicts, the only appropriate option is to revive tradition and root the reform in China’s own cultural soil.
摘要关于儒家伦理与中国经济发展的关系,学术界众说纷纭。研究表明,儒家伦理的产生源于保障家庭正常运转的现实需求。后来,它发展成为政府和个人之间的协调人,从而带来了家庭制度和官僚制度之间的制度妥协,这是中国特有的市场制度的基础。在未来,市场经济的成功发展将在很大程度上取决于政府和市场力量之间能否达到制度平衡,这将与儒家伦理密切相关。本文认为,儒家思想涉及到宏观与微观的内在冲突。在宏观层面上,儒家对财富和道德设定了很高的标准,但在微观层面上,它很少关注如何创造财富。因此,对于正在进行的市场改革,继续引入以新教伦理为导向的西方制度是合理的,因为它们在增加财富积累方面更有利。然而,这一过程缺乏稳定性和包容性,因此容易出现财富与道德的分离。这正是儒家应该介入的地方。本文认为,财富积累与中国文化传统的长期分离已成为中国经济增长的最大障碍。面对愈演愈烈的社会和经济冲突,唯一合适的选择是复兴传统,将改革植根于中国自己的文化土壤。
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引用次数: 3
Roles of commodity futures derivatives and financial crises in global food security 商品期货衍生品和金融危机在全球粮食安全中的作用
IF 2.4 4区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-02-10 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2021.1872854
Victor Edem Sosoo, David Iheke Okorie, Hai-qiang Chen
Abstract Commodity futures have been largely blamed for the price hikes in 2007/mid-2008 and 2010/2011 and the decreased food security around the world, especially in less developed countries. There still exist serious disagreements between most economists and policymakers as to whether this is the case. We run time-series regressions for all samples and subsamples for lower-income, middle-income, and high-income countries respectively. The empirical results show that commodity futures have a more significant negative impact on food security in low-income countries than in middle-income and high-income economies. Financial crises, however, have a significant impact on food security in all the regional divisions as a whole and are seen to exasperate the negative effect of some of the commodity futures on food security. We also find evidence that a certain degree of speculation in some commodities stabilises prices of those commodities as expected by theory. Our results have important policy implications as policymakers must control these speculations but should also be careful not to overregulate the market.
摘要商品期货在很大程度上被认为是2007/2008年年中和2010/2011年价格上涨以及世界各地,特别是欠发达国家粮食安全下降的原因。对于情况是否如此,大多数经济学家和政策制定者之间仍然存在严重分歧。我们分别对低收入、中等收入和高收入国家的所有样本和子样本进行了时间序列回归。实证结果表明,与中等收入和高收入经济体相比,商品期货对低收入国家粮食安全的负面影响更为显著。然而,金融危机对整个区域各部门的粮食安全产生了重大影响,并被视为加剧了一些商品期货对粮食安全的负面影响。我们还发现,有证据表明,对某些商品的一定程度的投机会稳定这些商品的价格,正如理论所预期的那样。我们的研究结果具有重要的政策意义,因为政策制定者必须控制这些投机行为,但也应小心不要过度监管市场。
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引用次数: 3
The economics of soft power: Reliance on economic resources and instrumentality in economic gains 软实力经济学:经济收益对经济资源和工具的依赖
IF 2.4 4区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-25 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1865620
Daniele Carminati
Abstract Soft power is commonly presented as an alternative or a complement to harder forms of power, such as military and economic might. However, while it is safer to say that soft power does not depend on military capabilities, it is not as straightforward to separate soft power from its economic counterpart. Juxtaposing various soft power rankings with a country’s economic assets may reveal how soft power relies on economic resources. Moreover, when closely scrutinised, it is possible to appreciate how dynamics of attraction are also closely intertwined with economic gains. In an increasingly connected world, soft power could prove to be instrumental in achieving economic success. Economic effects are expected to be more consistent, observable, and attainable when compared to political ones, such as spreading democracy. Far from arguing that soft power is unable to assist in achieving political goals in the long term, this paper aims instead to highlight how a narrow culture-centred analysis of soft power greatly limits the understanding of this power in the real world, and results in the underestimation of its value and impact. China’s quest to connect the world through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a topical case through which to further explore the soft–economic power nexus.
摘要软实力通常被认为是对军事和经济实力等硬实力的替代或补充。然而,虽然说软实力不取决于军事能力更安全,但将软实力与经济实力区分开来并不是那么简单。将各种软实力排名与一个国家的经济资产并列,可以揭示软实力对经济资源的依赖程度。此外,当仔细观察时,可以发现吸引力的动态与经济收益是如何紧密交织在一起的。在一个日益互联的世界里,软实力可能对实现经济成功起到重要作用。与传播民主等政治影响相比,经济影响预计将更加一致、可观察和可实现。本文并没有认为软实力无法长期帮助实现政治目标,而是旨在强调对软实力的狭隘文化中心分析如何极大地限制了对现实世界中这种力量的理解,并导致低估其价值和影响。中国寻求通过其“一带一路”倡议倡议(BRI)连接世界,这是进一步探索软实力与经济实力关系的一个热门案例。
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引用次数: 4
Willingness to pay to reduce future risk: a fundamental issue to invest in prevention behaviour 为减少未来风险而付费的意愿:投资于预防行为的一个基本问题
IF 2.4 4区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1827500
Jim Engle-Warnick, J. Heroux, C. Montmarquette
Abstract At the core of the decision to invest in prevention are individuals who face immediate real costs against future and uncertain benefits. In this paper, we elicit subjects’ willingness to pay to reduce future risk. In our experiments, subjects are given a cash endowment and a risky lottery. They report their willingness to pay to exchange the risky lottery for a safe one. Subjects play the lottery either immediately, eight weeks later, or 25 weeks later. Thus, both the lottery and the future are sources of uncertainty in our experiments. In two additional treatments, we control for future uncertainty with a continuation probability (a stopping rule), constant and independent across periods, that simulates the chances of not being able to return to play the lottery after 8 and 25 periods. We find evidence for a present bias in both the time-delay sessions and the continuation probability sessions, suggesting that this bias robustly persists in environments including both risk and future uncertainty. Therefore, eliciting prevention behaviour is a major challenge.
摘要投资于预防的核心决策是那些面临眼前实际成本和未来不确定收益的个人。在这篇论文中,我们引出了受试者为降低未来风险而支付的意愿。在我们的实验中,受试者被给予现金捐赠和风险彩票。他们表示愿意花钱把有风险的彩票换成安全的彩票。受试者立即、8周后或25周后进行抽奖。因此,彩票和未来都是我们实验中不确定性的来源。在另外两种处理中,我们用连续概率(一种停止规则)控制未来的不确定性,该概率在不同时期是恒定和独立的,模拟了在8个和25个时期后无法返回玩彩票的机会。我们在时滞会话和连续概率会话中都发现了存在偏差的证据,这表明这种偏差在包括风险和未来不确定性的环境中仍然存在。因此,激发预防行为是一项重大挑战。
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引用次数: 2
Exposure to conspiracy theories in the lab 在实验室中暴露于阴谋论
IF 2.4 4区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1818930
Loukas Balafoutas, Alexander Libman, Vasileios Selamis, B. Vollan
Abstract Conspiracy theories are widespread in the modern information era. Being exposed to conspiracy theories may affect behaviour, for example, by spreading mistrust among people and within organisations, even if it does not necessarily generate widespread beliefs in the conspiracy narrative. Our paper investigates the effect of exposure to conspiracy theories on strategic sophistication. We present evidence from a laboratory experiment, in which we prime half of our participants with exposure to a conspiracy theory. We find that such exposure leads to increased strategic sophistication. Using a causal mediation analysis we confirm that the effect on sophistication arises independently of whether people believe in the content or not.
摘要阴谋论在现代信息时代广泛存在。接触阴谋论可能会影响行为,例如,在人与人之间和组织内部传播不信任,即使这不一定会在阴谋论中产生广泛的信念。我们的论文研究了暴露于阴谋论对战略复杂性的影响。我们提供了一个实验室实验的证据,在这个实验中,我们让一半的参与者暴露在阴谋论中。我们发现,这种风险敞口会导致战略复杂性的提高。通过因果中介分析,我们证实了对复杂性的影响与人们是否相信内容无关。
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引用次数: 1
How an All-or-Nothing insurance behaviour challenges economic policies: an experimental approach 要么全有要么全无的保险行为如何挑战经济政策:一种实验方法
IF 2.4 4区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1815397
Anne Corcos, François Pannequin, C. Montmarquette
Abstract Based on experimental data, this paper confirms, in a controlled environment, converging theoretical and empirical results that, when individuals insure, they choose to insure themselves with a full cover. This insurance behaviour creates an opportunity for the public authority to drive people to enter the insurance market where they would buy full insurance. This paper also sheds light on the risks of an opportunistic insurers’ behaviour. This heuristic challenges the efficiency of separating contracts designed to address adverse selection issues. Indeed, a strong preference for full contracts may encourage low-risk individuals to turn to (full) contracts designed for high-risk individuals, yielding advantageous selection opportunities for insurers. However, if this heuristic strengthens the high-risks’ reluctance for partial insurance, it may increase the efficiency of the separating contracts, and the low-risk individuals suffer less from adverse selection.
摘要基于实验数据,本文证实,在受控环境下,理论和实证结果的趋同表明,当个人投保时,他们选择为自己投保全套保险。这种保险行为为公共当局创造了一个机会,促使人们进入保险市场,在那里他们可以购买全额保险。本文还揭示了机会主义保险公司行为的风险。这种启发式方法挑战了分离旨在解决逆向选择问题的合同的效率。事实上,对完整合同的强烈偏好可能会鼓励低风险个人转向为高风险个人设计的(完整)合同,从而为保险公司带来有利的选择机会。然而,如果这种启发式方法加强了高风险个体对部分保险的不情愿,它可能会提高合同分离的效率,并且低风险个体较少受到不利选择的影响。
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引用次数: 1
Introduction 介绍
IF 2.4 4区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1837553
M. Villeval
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引用次数: 0
Does technology transfer from the US to China harm American firms, workers, and consumers? A historical and analytic investigation 从美国到中国的技术转让会伤害美国公司、工人和消费者吗?历史分析调查
IF 2.4 4区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2021.1933768
Victor Menaldo, Nicolas Wittstock
Abstract Decades of spectacular economic growth have made China into an important geopolitical player. As Chinese companies improve their capabilities across several areas of advanced technology, including artificial intelligence, some US policymakers and pundits lament the country’s ‘unfair trade practices’ and serial ‘theft of American intellectual property’, particularly through so-called forced technology transfer. China hawks claim these practices hurt US companies, workers, and consumers. Do Chinese technology practices harm economic efficiency? What are their distributional consequences? To address these questions, we explore the different modalities of international technology transfer and flesh out their economic consequences. We also investigate the recent history of technology transfer, providing examples from the industrialisation experiences of European countries and the Asian Tigers. We surmise that current Chinese processes are neither novel nor alarming from the standpoint of either economic efficiency or distribution: US firms are collecting record royalty payments for their intellectual property from China and generating gangbuster profits due to their access to Chinese labour, suppliers, and the country’s growing consumer market. American consumers benefit from US–China economic interdependence and so do some workers. The consequences for the US economy as a whole are positive. While we are agnostic about whether these practices threaten America’s national security, we offer ideas for how to prevent China from acquiring its most sensitive military technology.
摘要几十年的惊人经济增长使中国成为重要的地缘政治参与者。随着中国公司在包括人工智能在内的几个先进技术领域提高能力,一些美国政策制定者和专家哀叹中国的“不公平贸易行为”和一系列“盗窃美国知识产权”,特别是通过所谓的强制技术转让。中国鹰派人士声称,这些做法伤害了美国公司、工人和消费者。中国的技术实践会损害经济效率吗?它们的分配结果是什么?为了解决这些问题,我们探讨了国际技术转让的不同方式,并充实了其经济后果。我们还调查了技术转让的近期历史,提供了欧洲国家和亚洲之虎工业化经验的例子。我们推测,从经济效率或分销的角度来看,目前中国的流程既不新颖,也不令人担忧:美国公司正在从中国收取创纪录的知识产权使用费,并由于能够接触到中国劳动力、供应商和该国不断增长的消费市场而产生巨额利润。美国消费者从美中经济相互依存中受益,一些工人也从中受益。对整个美国经济的影响是积极的。虽然我们不知道这些做法是否威胁到美国的国家安全,但我们为如何阻止中国获得其最敏感的军事技术提供了思路。
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引用次数: 2
Clientelism and identity 客户主义和身份
IF 2.4 4区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-03 DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2020.1837335
James P. Habyarimana, Daniel Houser, Stuti Khemani, Viktor Brech, Ginny Seung Choi, Moumita Roy
Abstract Electoral clientelism or vote buying has been regarded as undermining democratic institutions and weakening the accountability of the state towards its citizens, especially the poor. Social identity as a form of political mobilisation may contribute to this, enabling support to be won with clientelist transfers. This paper reports data from a novel laboratory experiment designed to examine whether clientelism can be sustained as a political strategy, and whether identity impacts the nature or efficacy of clientelism. Specifically, we design a voting and leadership game in order to examine whether individuals vote for clientelist allocations by a leader even at the expense of more efficient and egalitarian allocations. We find group identity does not significantly impact the prevalence of clientelist plans. Leaders are more likely, however, to choose allocations that provide fewer benefits (lower rents) to themselves when they are part of the majority in-group than when they are in the minority.
选举庇护主义或贿选被认为是破坏民主制度和削弱国家对公民,特别是穷人的问责制。作为一种政治动员形式的社会认同可能有助于此,使其能够通过客户主义转移赢得支持。本文报告了一项新的实验室实验的数据,该实验旨在检验裙带关系是否可以作为一种政治策略持续存在,以及身份认同是否会影响裙带关系的性质或效力。具体来说,我们设计了一个投票和领导博弈,以检验个人是否投票给领导的客户分配,即使牺牲更有效和平等的分配。我们发现群体认同并不显著影响客户主义计划的流行。然而,当领导者属于多数群体时,他们更有可能选择给自己提供较少利益(较低租金)的分配,而不是当他们属于少数群体时。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Economic and Political Studies-EPS
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