The present study investigates the change of gender role attitudes in Germany between 1982 and 2016. Nine waves of the German General Social Survey are used (N = 26,389). In contrast to previous trend studies, which largely ignore age effects, a mechanism-based age-period-cohort model (Winship/Harding 2008) is applied. It becomes clear that age, period and cohort independently have an impact on gender role ideology. Compared to earlier research, new insights concerning the shape of cohort effects come to light: Specific to traditional gender ideology in Western Germany, it is apparent that the trend towards increasingly egalitarian attitudes comes to a halt in men born around 1956 and later and in women born 1966. For Eastern Germany we observe that the cohort-specific trend towards liberalisation in younger cohorts either is diminishing or even tends to reverse. This pattern of effects mainly mirrors the phases of the feminist movement in Western Germany and the rise and decline of the German Democratic Republic, respectively.
{"title":"Gender Role Attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Analysis","authors":"Daniel Lois","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2020-02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2020-02","url":null,"abstract":"The present study investigates the change of gender role attitudes in Germany between 1982 and 2016. Nine waves of the German General Social Survey are used (N = 26,389). In contrast to previous trend studies, which largely ignore age effects, a mechanism-based age-period-cohort model (Winship/Harding 2008) is applied. It becomes clear that age, period and cohort independently have an impact on gender role ideology. Compared to earlier research, new insights concerning the shape of cohort effects come to light: Specific to traditional gender ideology in Western Germany, it is apparent that the trend towards increasingly egalitarian attitudes comes to a halt in men born around 1956 and later and in women born 1966. For Eastern Germany we observe that the cohort-specific trend towards liberalisation in younger cohorts either is diminishing or even tends to reverse. This pattern of effects mainly mirrors the phases of the feminist movement in Western Germany and the rise and decline of the German Democratic Republic, respectively.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"183 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138510289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The problem of declining membership in Germany’s churches has been apparent for almost half a century. However, few scientific studies have investigated the respective influences of demographic and church-specific phenomena, as well as the potential impact if present trends continue. To answer these questions, we use a cohort component model and project the membership of each German Catholic diocese and Protestant regional church until 2060. Thus, for the first time we present a projection of church members for each of the 27 Catholic (arch-) dioceses and the 20 Protestant regional churches, as well as for the entire Evangelical Church and the Roman Catholic Church in Germany. We collected data from dioceses, Protestant regional churches and the Federal Statistical Office. Under the assumptions made, the results suggest a continued decline in membership and that by 2060 the number of church members would be half the number of 2017. Protestant Church membership would have shrunk slightly more than Catholic Church membership. We can conclude that church-specific factors (baptisms, leaving, and joining the church) would have a stronger influence on declining numbers than demographic factors. Moreover, demographic change would have a greater impact on registered church membership than on the total population. The proportion of Christians in the population would sharply decrease. Although in 2017 54.4 percent of the population belonged to one of the two major churches, according to the projection model, only 31.1 percent would be church members in 2060. As our results are not predictions but projections using trend analysis, we show how changed conditions would affect the projected development in five scenarios.
{"title":"German Churches in Times of Demographic Change and Declining Affiliation: A Projection to 2060","authors":"D. Gutmann, Fabian Peters","doi":"10.12765/CPOS-2020-01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/CPOS-2020-01","url":null,"abstract":"The problem of declining membership in Germany’s churches has been apparent for almost half a century. However, few scientific studies have investigated the respective influences of demographic and church-specific phenomena, as well as the potential impact if present trends continue. To answer these questions, we use a cohort component model and project the membership of each German Catholic diocese and Protestant regional church until 2060. Thus, for the first time we present a projection of church members for each of the 27 Catholic (arch-) dioceses and the 20 Protestant regional churches, as well as for the entire Evangelical Church and the Roman Catholic Church in Germany. We collected data from dioceses, Protestant regional churches and the Federal Statistical Office. Under the assumptions made, the results suggest a continued decline in membership and that by 2060 the number of church members would be half the number of 2017. Protestant Church membership would have shrunk slightly more than Catholic Church membership. We can conclude that church-specific factors (baptisms, leaving, and joining the church) would have a stronger influence on declining numbers than demographic factors. Moreover, demographic change would have a greater impact on registered church membership than on the total population. The proportion of Christians in the population would sharply decrease. Although in 2017 54.4 percent of the population belonged to one of the two major churches, according to the projection model, only 31.1 percent would be church members in 2060. As our results are not predictions but projections using trend analysis, we show how changed conditions would affect the projected development in five scenarios.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45600622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Although demand for long-term care (LTC) in Germany is expected to increase over the coming decades, the LTC sector will struggle to provide sufficient capacity. Evaluating the impact of different risk factors on future LTC demand is necessary in order to make informed policy decisions. With regard to LTC need, dementia and lower extremity injuries (LEI) are common risk factors. Both are used to demonstrate their maximum attainable efficacy in mitigating the future increase in overall LTC need, both at home and in nursing homes.We use a multi-state projection model for which the estimation of the underlying transition and mortality rates is based on longitudinal health claims data from AOK, Germany’s largest public health insurance provider, between 2004 and 2010. We project six different scenarios of LTC for ages 75+ in Germany for the period from 2014 to 2044, including counterfactual scenarios that remove the effects of LEI, dementia, or both. Our multi-state projections distinguish between home-based and institutional LTC.Removing the effect of LTC risk factors mitigates the increase in total LTC demand and postpones demand until a later age. Removing dementia markedly shifts future care demand from institutional LTC to LTC at home and even increases demand for LTC at home at older ages beyond the baseline projection due to the dual function of dementia as a risk factor for both LTC demand and mortality. Removing LEI has less of an effect on overall and sectoral LTC demand. Removing both risk factors at the same time results in the greatest impact, which is even more marked than that of both individual scenarios combined, thus indicating a synergistic relationship between dementia and LEI on LTC risk.The type of LTC demand (home-based or institutional) shows considerable plasticity when specific risk factors are removed. We demonstrate the degree to which LTC demand can be affected in favour of LTC at home, using dementia and LEI as examples of potentially modifiable risk factors, and thus show how the efficacy of potential intervention targets for policy-makers can be assessed.This study provides evidence on the degree of plasticity of future long-term care demand at home and in institutions that would hypothetically be attainable when completely removing specific cognitive or physical risk factors of care need (dementia or lower EI). It is based on large-scale health claims data, which contain longitudinal individual level data on morbidity and long-term care status. A close link exists between the cognitive risk factor of dementia and the type of LTC, as its absence shifts care demand to home-based care at older ages. The study also demonstrates the usefulness of counterfactual projections based on health claims data in assessing the hypothetical maximum efficacy of different intervention strategies.
{"title":"The Impact of Dementia and Extremity Injuries on the Plasticity of Long-term Care Demand: An Analysis of Counterfactual Projection Scenarios Based on German Health Insurance Routine Data","authors":"Alexander Barth","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2019-19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2019-19","url":null,"abstract":"Although demand for long-term care (LTC) in Germany is expected to increase over the coming decades, the LTC sector will struggle to provide sufficient capacity. Evaluating the impact of different risk factors on future LTC demand is necessary in order to make informed policy decisions. With regard to LTC need, dementia and lower extremity injuries (LEI) are common risk factors. Both are used to demonstrate their maximum attainable efficacy in mitigating the future increase in overall LTC need, both at home and in nursing homes.We use a multi-state projection model for which the estimation of the underlying transition and mortality rates is based on longitudinal health claims data from AOK, Germany’s largest public health insurance provider, between 2004 and 2010. We project six different scenarios of LTC for ages 75+ in Germany for the period from 2014 to 2044, including counterfactual scenarios that remove the effects of LEI, dementia, or both. Our multi-state projections distinguish between home-based and institutional LTC.Removing the effect of LTC risk factors mitigates the increase in total LTC demand and postpones demand until a later age. Removing dementia markedly shifts future care demand from institutional LTC to LTC at home and even increases demand for LTC at home at older ages beyond the baseline projection due to the dual function of dementia as a risk factor for both LTC demand and mortality. Removing LEI has less of an effect on overall and sectoral LTC demand. Removing both risk factors at the same time results in the greatest impact, which is even more marked than that of both individual scenarios combined, thus indicating a synergistic relationship between dementia and LEI on LTC risk.The type of LTC demand (home-based or institutional) shows considerable plasticity when specific risk factors are removed. We demonstrate the degree to which LTC demand can be affected in favour of LTC at home, using dementia and LEI as examples of potentially modifiable risk factors, and thus show how the efficacy of potential intervention targets for policy-makers can be assessed.This study provides evidence on the degree of plasticity of future long-term care demand at home and in institutions that would hypothetically be attainable when completely removing specific cognitive or physical risk factors of care need (dementia or lower EI). It is based on large-scale health claims data, which contain longitudinal individual level data on morbidity and long-term care status. A close link exists between the cognitive risk factor of dementia and the type of LTC, as its absence shifts care demand to home-based care at older ages. The study also demonstrates the usefulness of counterfactual projections based on health claims data in assessing the hypothetical maximum efficacy of different intervention strategies.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"187 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2019-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138510286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Although demand for long-term care (LTC) in Germany is expected to increase over the coming decades, the LTC sector will struggle to provide sufficient capacity. Evaluating the impact of different risk factors on future LTC demand is necessary in order to make informed policy decisions. With regard to LTC need, dementia and lower extremity injuries (LEI) are common risk factors. Both are used to demonstrate their maximum attainable efficacy in mitigating the future increase in overall LTC need, both at home and in nursing homes.We use a multi-state projection model for which the estimation of the underlying transition and mortality rates is based on longitudinal health claims data from AOK, Germany’s largest public health insurance provider, between 2004 and 2010. We project six different scenarios of LTC for ages 75+ in Germany for the period from 2014 to 2044, including counterfactual scenarios that remove the effects of LEI, dementia, or both. Our multi-state projections distinguish between home-based and institutional LTC.Removing the effect of LTC risk factors mitigates the increase in total LTC demand and postpones demand until a later age. Removing dementia markedly shifts future care demand from institutional LTC to LTC at home and even increases demand for LTC at home at older ages beyond the baseline projection due to the dual function of dementia as a risk factor for both LTC demand and mortality. Removing LEI has less of an effect on overall and sectoral LTC demand. Removing both risk factors at the same time results in the greatest impact, which is even more marked than that of both individual scenarios combined, thus indicating a synergistic relationship between dementia and LEI on LTC risk.The type of LTC demand (home-based or institutional) shows considerable plasticity when specific risk factors are removed. We demonstrate the degree to which LTC demand can be affected in favour of LTC at home, using dementia and LEI as examples of potentially modifiable risk factors, and thus show how the efficacy of potential intervention targets for policy-makers can be assessed.This study provides evidence on the degree of plasticity of future long-term care demand at home and in institutions that would hypothetically be attainable when completely removing specific cognitive or physical risk factors of care need (dementia or lower EI). It is based on large-scale health claims data, which contain longitudinal individual level data on morbidity and long-term care status. A close link exists between the cognitive risk factor of dementia and the type of LTC, as its absence shifts care demand to home-based care at older ages. The study also demonstrates the usefulness of counterfactual projections based on health claims data in assessing the hypothetical maximum efficacy of different intervention strategies.
{"title":"The Impact of Dementia and Extremity Injuries on the Plasticity of Long-term Care Demand: An Analysis of Counterfactual Projection Scenarios Based on German Health Insurance Routine Data","authors":"Alexander Barth","doi":"10.12765/CPOS-2019-19EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/CPOS-2019-19EN","url":null,"abstract":"Although demand for long-term care (LTC) in Germany is expected to increase over the coming decades, the LTC sector will struggle to provide sufficient capacity. Evaluating the impact of different risk factors on future LTC demand is necessary in order to make informed policy decisions. With regard to LTC need, dementia and lower extremity injuries (LEI) are common risk factors. Both are used to demonstrate their maximum attainable efficacy in mitigating the future increase in overall LTC need, both at home and in nursing homes.We use a multi-state projection model for which the estimation of the underlying transition and mortality rates is based on longitudinal health claims data from AOK, Germany’s largest public health insurance provider, between 2004 and 2010. We project six different scenarios of LTC for ages 75+ in Germany for the period from 2014 to 2044, including counterfactual scenarios that remove the effects of LEI, dementia, or both. Our multi-state projections distinguish between home-based and institutional LTC.Removing the effect of LTC risk factors mitigates the increase in total LTC demand and postpones demand until a later age. Removing dementia markedly shifts future care demand from institutional LTC to LTC at home and even increases demand for LTC at home at older ages beyond the baseline projection due to the dual function of dementia as a risk factor for both LTC demand and mortality. Removing LEI has less of an effect on overall and sectoral LTC demand. Removing both risk factors at the same time results in the greatest impact, which is even more marked than that of both individual scenarios combined, thus indicating a synergistic relationship between dementia and LEI on LTC risk.The type of LTC demand (home-based or institutional) shows considerable plasticity when specific risk factors are removed. We demonstrate the degree to which LTC demand can be affected in favour of LTC at home, using dementia and LEI as examples of potentially modifiable risk factors, and thus show how the efficacy of potential intervention targets for policy-makers can be assessed.This study provides evidence on the degree of plasticity of future long-term care demand at home and in institutions that would hypothetically be attainable when completely removing specific cognitive or physical risk factors of care need (dementia or lower EI). It is based on large-scale health claims data, which contain longitudinal individual level data on morbidity and long-term care status. A close link exists between the cognitive risk factor of dementia and the type of LTC, as its absence shifts care demand to home-based care at older ages. The study also demonstrates the usefulness of counterfactual projections based on health claims data in assessing the hypothetical maximum efficacy of different intervention strategies.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2019-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47397272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-14DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1683219
Andrea Monti, Sven Drefahl, Eleonora Mussino, J. Härkönen
Estimating the number of individuals living in a country is an essential task for demographers. This study assesses the potential bias in estimating the size of different migrant populations due to over-coverage in population registers. Over-coverage—individuals registered but not living in a country—is an increasingly pressing phenomenon; however, there is no common understanding of how to deal with over-coverage in demographic research. This study examines different approaches to and improvements in over-coverage estimation using Swedish total population register data. We assess over-coverage levels across migrant groups, test how estimates of age-specific death and fertility rates are affected when adjusting for over-coverage, and examine whether over-coverage can explain part of the healthy migrant paradox. Our results confirm the existence of over-coverage and we find substantial changes in mortality and fertility rates, when adjusted, for people of migrating age. Accounting for over-coverage is particularly important for correctly estimating migrant fertility.
{"title":"Over-coverage in population registers leads to bias in demographic estimates","authors":"Andrea Monti, Sven Drefahl, Eleonora Mussino, J. Härkönen","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2019.1683219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2019.1683219","url":null,"abstract":"Estimating the number of individuals living in a country is an essential task for demographers. This study assesses the potential bias in estimating the size of different migrant populations due to over-coverage in population registers. Over-coverage—individuals registered but not living in a country—is an increasingly pressing phenomenon; however, there is no common understanding of how to deal with over-coverage in demographic research. This study examines different approaches to and improvements in over-coverage estimation using Swedish total population register data. We assess over-coverage levels across migrant groups, test how estimates of age-specific death and fertility rates are affected when adjusting for over-coverage, and examine whether over-coverage can explain part of the healthy migrant paradox. Our results confirm the existence of over-coverage and we find substantial changes in mortality and fertility rates, when adjusted, for people of migrating age. Accounting for over-coverage is particularly important for correctly estimating migrant fertility.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"178 1","pages":"451 - 469"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2019-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77367648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-08DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1676461
J. Raymer, Qing Guan, R. Norman, W. Ledger, G. Chambers
This study estimates the future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments in Australia, focusing on assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs), intrauterine insemination (IUI), and ovulation induction. A multistate cohort component population projection model is used to determine future fertility rates from 2016 to 2026 by age and education level. These are combined with information on recent trends in use and success rates to indirectly estimate future age-specific probabilities of fertility treatment utilization. The number of ART cycles is expected to increase by 61 per cent between 2016 and 2026 if treatment success rates remain at 2015 levels, or by 34 per cent if recent improvements in ART success rates continue. The model also predicts that numbers of IUI cycles and ovulation induction cycles will decrease by 17 and 3 per cent, respectively. This research confirms the importance of including both technological improvements and socio-demographic changes when predicting future fertility treatment utilization.
{"title":"Projecting future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments","authors":"J. Raymer, Qing Guan, R. Norman, W. Ledger, G. Chambers","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2019.1676461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2019.1676461","url":null,"abstract":"This study estimates the future utilization of medically assisted fertility treatments in Australia, focusing on assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs), intrauterine insemination (IUI), and ovulation induction. A multistate cohort component population projection model is used to determine future fertility rates from 2016 to 2026 by age and education level. These are combined with information on recent trends in use and success rates to indirectly estimate future age-specific probabilities of fertility treatment utilization. The number of ART cycles is expected to increase by 61 per cent between 2016 and 2026 if treatment success rates remain at 2015 levels, or by 34 per cent if recent improvements in ART success rates continue. The model also predicts that numbers of IUI cycles and ovulation induction cycles will decrease by 17 and 3 per cent, respectively. This research confirms the importance of including both technological improvements and socio-demographic changes when predicting future fertility treatment utilization.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"22 1","pages":"23 - 38"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2019-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78373668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-07DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1672880
J. Cleland, K. Machiyama, J. Casterline
Survey data on fertility preferences have played a central but controversial role in fertility research and advocacy for family planning. We summarize evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 Asian and African populations on the relationship between preferences and subsequent childbearing. While we found no consistent association between women's desire to delay childbearing and subsequent fertility, the baseline desire of women to stop childbearing was a powerful predictor of subsequent fertility in all populations and increased in strength as overall contraceptive use in the study populations rose. Partners’ desire also exercised some influence but was of modest importance in most populations. However, the correspondence between desire to stop and behaviour was found to be far from perfect. Weak implementation of preferences by contraception is likely to be the major cause of this preference–behaviour discrepancy. Uncertainty and instability in preferences may also contribute to the discrepancy, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.
{"title":"Fertility preferences and subsequent childbearing in Africa and Asia: A synthesis of evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 populations","authors":"J. Cleland, K. Machiyama, J. Casterline","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2019.1672880","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2019.1672880","url":null,"abstract":"Survey data on fertility preferences have played a central but controversial role in fertility research and advocacy for family planning. We summarize evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 Asian and African populations on the relationship between preferences and subsequent childbearing. While we found no consistent association between women's desire to delay childbearing and subsequent fertility, the baseline desire of women to stop childbearing was a powerful predictor of subsequent fertility in all populations and increased in strength as overall contraceptive use in the study populations rose. Partners’ desire also exercised some influence but was of modest importance in most populations. However, the correspondence between desire to stop and behaviour was found to be far from perfect. Weak implementation of preferences by contraception is likely to be the major cause of this preference–behaviour discrepancy. Uncertainty and instability in preferences may also contribute to the discrepancy, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"88 1","pages":"1 - 21"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2019-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82341929","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Francisco Rowe, M. Bell, Aude Bernard, E. Charles‐Edwards, P. Ueffing
The classical foundations of migration research date from the 1880s with Ravenstein’s “Laws of migration”, which represent the first comparative analyses of internal migration. While his observations remain largely valid, the ensuing century has seen considerable progress in data collection practices and methods of analysis, which in turn has permitted theoretical advances in understanding the role of migration in population redistribution. Coupling the extensive range of migration data now available with these recent theoretical and methodological advances, we endeavour to advance beyond Ravenstein’s understanding by examining the direction of population redistribution and comparing the impact of internal migration on patterns of human settlement in 27 European countries. Results show that the overall redistributive impact of internal migration is low in most European countries but the mechanisms differ across the continent. In Southern and Eastern Europe migration effectiveness is above average but is offset by low migration intensities, whereas in Northern and Western Europe high intensities are absorbed in reciprocal flows resulting in low migration effectiveness. About half the European countries are experiencing a process of concentration toward urbanised regions, particularly in Northern, Central and Eastern Europe, whereas countries in the West and South are undergoing a process of population deconcentration. These results suggest that population deconcentration is now more common than it was in the 1990s when counterurbanisation was limited to Western Europe. The results show that 130 years on, Ravenstein’s law of migration streams and counter-streams remains a central facet of migration dynamics, while underlining the importance of simple yet robust indices for the spatial analysis of migration.* This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in Europe: Updating Ravenstein”.
{"title":"Impact of Internal Migration on Population Redistribution in Europe: Urbanisation, Counterurbanisation or Spatial Equilibrium?","authors":"Francisco Rowe, M. Bell, Aude Bernard, E. Charles‐Edwards, P. Ueffing","doi":"10.12765/CPoS-2019-18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2019-18","url":null,"abstract":"The classical foundations of migration research date from the 1880s with Ravenstein’s “Laws of migration”, which represent the first comparative analyses of internal migration. While his observations remain largely valid, the ensuing century has seen considerable progress in data collection practices and methods of analysis, which in turn has permitted theoretical advances in understanding the role of migration in population redistribution. Coupling the extensive range of migration data now available with these recent theoretical and methodological advances, we endeavour to advance beyond Ravenstein’s understanding by examining the direction of population redistribution and comparing the impact of internal migration on patterns of human settlement in 27 European countries. Results show that the overall redistributive impact of internal migration is low in most European countries but the mechanisms differ across the continent. In Southern and Eastern Europe migration effectiveness is above average but is offset by low migration intensities, whereas in Northern and Western Europe high intensities are absorbed in reciprocal flows resulting in low migration effectiveness. About half the European countries are experiencing a process of concentration toward urbanised regions, particularly in Northern, Central and Eastern Europe, whereas countries in the West and South are undergoing a process of population deconcentration. These results suggest that population deconcentration is now more common than it was in the 1990s when counterurbanisation was limited to Western Europe. The results show that 130 years on, Ravenstein’s law of migration streams and counter-streams remains a central facet of migration dynamics, while underlining the importance of simple yet robust indices for the spatial analysis of migration.* This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in Europe: Updating Ravenstein”.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"12 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2019-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41266057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We present new population projections out to 2100 for the countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole under a wide range of fertility and migration scenarios. As policy-based projections rather than forecasts, they aspire not to maximize predictive success regarding future demographic developments, but to accurately show the impact of different migration and socio-economic policy choices on population numbers. Our chief aim is to clarify those policy choices for European citizens and policymakers. We show that demographic policies have the potential to markedly increase or decrease future populations across the EU. Migration policy offers greater scope for influencing future population numbers than policies aimed at influencing national fertility rates. In countries with particularly low fertility rates or high emigration levels, egalitarian economic and family support policies have the potential to limit future population decreases to a significant extent, especially in combination. In most cases, EU nations are well placed to stabilize or slowly reduce their populations by continuing status quo policies or with moderate changes. Thus they are well placed to achieve one of the necessary conditions for creating ecologically sustainable societies.
{"title":"Policy-based Population Projections for the European Union: A Complementary Approach","authors":"Philip Cafaro,Patrícia Dérer","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2019-14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2019-14","url":null,"abstract":"We present new population projections out to 2100 for the countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole under a wide range of fertility and migration scenarios. As policy-based projections rather than forecasts, they aspire not to maximize predictive success regarding future demographic developments, but to accurately show the impact of different migration and socio-economic policy choices on population numbers. Our chief aim is to clarify those policy choices for European citizens and policymakers. We show that demographic policies have the potential to markedly increase or decrease future populations across the EU. Migration policy offers greater scope for influencing future population numbers than policies aimed at influencing national fertility rates. In countries with particularly low fertility rates or high emigration levels, egalitarian economic and family support policies have the potential to limit future population decreases to a significant extent, especially in combination. In most cases, EU nations are well placed to stabilize or slowly reduce their populations by continuing status quo policies or with moderate changes. Thus they are well placed to achieve one of the necessary conditions for creating ecologically sustainable societies.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"195 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2019-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138510267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We present new population projections out to 2100 for the countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole under a wide range of fertility and migration scenarios. As policy-based projections rather than forecasts, they aspire not to maximize predictive success regarding future demographic developments, but to accurately show the impact of different migration and socio-economic policy choices on population numbers. Our chief aim is to clarify those policy choices for European citizens and policymakers. We show that demographic policies have the potential to markedly increase or decrease future populations across the EU. Migration policy offers greater scope for influencing future population numbers than policies aimed at influencing national fertility rates. In countries with particularly low fertility rates or high emigration levels, egalitarian economic and family support policies have the potential to limit future population decreases to a significant extent, especially in combination. In most cases, EU nations are well placed to stabilize or slowly reduce their populations by continuing status quo policies or with moderate changes. Thus they are well placed to achieve one of the necessary conditions for creating ecologically sustainable societies.
{"title":"Policy-based Population Projections for the European Union: A Complementary Approach","authors":"Philip Cafaro, Patrícia Dérer","doi":"10.12765/CPOS-2019-14EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/CPOS-2019-14EN","url":null,"abstract":"We present new population projections out to 2100 for the countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole under a wide range of fertility and migration scenarios. As policy-based projections rather than forecasts, they aspire not to maximize predictive success regarding future demographic developments, but to accurately show the impact of different migration and socio-economic policy choices on population numbers. Our chief aim is to clarify those policy choices for European citizens and policymakers. We show that demographic policies have the potential to markedly increase or decrease future populations across the EU. Migration policy offers greater scope for influencing future population numbers than policies aimed at influencing national fertility rates. In countries with particularly low fertility rates or high emigration levels, egalitarian economic and family support policies have the potential to limit future population decreases to a significant extent, especially in combination. In most cases, EU nations are well placed to stabilize or slowly reduce their populations by continuing status quo policies or with moderate changes. Thus they are well placed to achieve one of the necessary conditions for creating ecologically sustainable societies.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2019-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42401849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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