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Ravenstein Revisited: The Analysis of Migration, Then and Now 拉文斯坦再访:对移民的分析,当时和现在
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2020-05-07 DOI: 10.12765/CPOS-2020-10
P. Rees, N. Lomax
In 1876, 1885 and 1889, Ernst Ravenstein, an Anglo-German geographer, published papers on internal and international migration in Britain, Europe and North America. He generalized his findings as “laws of migration”, which have informed subsequent migration research. This paper aims to compare Ravenstein’s approach to investigating migration with how researchers have studied the phenomenon more recently. Ravenstein used lifetime migrant tables for counties from the 1871 and 1881 censuses of the British Isles. Data on lifetime migrants are still routinely collected but, because of the indeterminate time interval, they are rarely used to study internal migration. Today, internal migration measures from alternative sources are used to measure internal migration: fixed interval migrant data from censuses and surveys, continuous records of migrations from registers, and “big data” from telecommunications and internet companies. Ravenstein described and mapped county-level lifetime migration patterns, using the concepts of “absorption” and “dispersion”, using migration rates and net balances. Recently, researchers have used lifetime migrant stocks from consecutive censuses to estimate country to country flows for the world. In the last decade, an Australian-led team has built an international database of internal migration flow data and summary measures. Methods were developed to investigate the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), in order to design summary internal migration measures comparable across countries. Indicators of internal migration were produced for countries covering 80 percent of the world’s population. Ravenstein observed that most migrants moved only short distances, anticipating the development of “gravity” models of migration. Recent studies calibrated the relationship between migration and distance, using gravity models. For mid-19th century Britain, Ravenstein found the dominant direction of internal migration to be towards the “centres of commerce and industry”. Urbanization is still the dominant flow direction in most countries, though, late in the process, suburbanization, counter-urbanization and re-urbanization can occur. Ravenstein focussed on place-specific migration, whereas today researchers describe migration flows using area typologies, seeking spatial generality. Ravenstein said little about migrant attributes except that women migrated more than men. In recent decades, the behaviour of migrants by age, sex, education, ethnicity, social class and partnership status have been studied intensively, using microdata from censuses and surveys. Knowledge about processes influencing internal and international migration has rarely been built into demographic projections. Scenarios that link migration with sub-national or national inequalities and with climate or environmental change are influencing the design of policies to reduce inequalities or slow global warming. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal
1876年、1885年和1889年,英德地理学家恩斯特·拉文斯坦(Ernst Ravenstein)发表了关于英国、欧洲和北美国内和国际移民的论文。他将他的发现概括为“移民法则”,这为后来的移民研究提供了依据。本文的目的是将Ravenstein研究移民的方法与研究人员最近研究这一现象的方法进行比较。拉文斯坦使用了1871年和1881年不列颠群岛人口普查中各郡的终身移民表。关于终生移徙者的数据仍然定期收集,但由于时间间隔不确定,很少用于研究国内移徙。今天,来自其他来源的国内移民指标被用来衡量国内移民:来自人口普查和调查的固定间隔移民数据,来自登记册的连续移民记录,以及来自电信和互联网公司的“大数据”。Ravenstein使用“吸收”和“分散”的概念,使用迁移率和净平衡,描述和绘制了县级终身迁移模式。最近,研究人员利用连续人口普查的终身移民存量来估计世界各国之间的流动。在过去十年中,一个由澳大利亚领导的团队建立了一个国内移民流动数据和汇总措施的国际数据库。研究人员开发了研究可修改面积单位问题(MAUP)的方法,以便设计各国间可比较的汇总内部迁移措施。为占世界人口80% %的国家编制了国内移徙指标。拉文斯坦观察到,大多数移民只移动了很短的距离,并预测了移民“重力”模型的发展。最近的研究使用重力模型校准了迁移和距离之间的关系。对于19世纪中期的英国,拉文斯坦发现,国内移民的主要方向是向“商业和工业中心”迁移。在大多数国家,城市化仍然是主要的流动方向,尽管在这一进程的后期,可能会出现郊区化、反城市化和再城市化。Ravenstein专注于特定地点的迁移,而今天的研究人员使用区域类型学来描述迁移流动,寻求空间普遍性。拉文斯坦几乎没有谈到移民的特征,只是说女性比男性更多地移民。近几十年来,利用人口普查和调查的微观数据,对按年龄、性别、教育、种族、社会阶层和伙伴关系状况分列的移徙者的行为进行了深入研究。关于影响国内和国际移徙进程的知识很少被纳入人口预测。将移徙与次国家或国家不平等以及与气候或环境变化联系起来的设想正在影响减少不平等或减缓全球变暖的政策设计。*本文属于“内部移民作为欧洲区域人口变化的驱动因素:更新拉文斯坦”特刊。
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引用次数: 9
Nationalizing Sex: Fertility, Fear, and Power 国家化的性:生育、恐惧和权力
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2020-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1739195
Leslie King
Richard Togman’s Nationalizing Sex reviews ‘natalist’ policies (governmental attempts to raise or lower birth rates) around the world from roughly the seventeenth century to the present day. Togman...
理查德·托格曼(Richard Togman)的《国家化的性》(Nationalizing Sex)回顾了大约从17世纪到现在世界各地的“出生主义”政策(政府试图提高或降低出生率)。Togman……
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引用次数: 0
From Living Apart to Living Together: Do Children Born before the Current Partnership Matter? 从分开生活到一起生活:在目前的伴侣关系之前出生的孩子重要吗?
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2020-03-31 DOI: 10.12765/CPOS-2020-07EN
Roselinde van der Wiel, C. Mulder, H. D. Valk
This study examines the association between having children born before the current partnership and women’s and men’s likelihood of transitioning from living apart together (LAT) to co-residing. LAT partnerships are common among individuals with pre-partnership children, but have so far been under-researched. Our study not only focuses on those in LAT relations, but also takes the different pathways to becoming a single parent into account. Event-history analysis was performed using waves 1-4 from the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study. The results indicate that separated and widowed mothers were less likely to transition to co-residence with their LAT partner than childless women who had previously been in a co-residential union. Mothers who had previous out-of-union children were found to be even less likely to enter co-residence. Results were mostly similar for men and women. The only exception was the effect of being widowed with children; for men this resulted in higher chances of transitioning to co-residence with a new partner whereas for women the chances were lower. The findings suggest that individuals’ parenthood and union histories are associated with the development of their later partnerships, and that these patterns vary by gender. Given contemporary and future patterns of partnership separation, our study provides insights for better understanding how LAT relations develop for different sub-populations.
本研究考察了在目前的伴侣关系之前出生的孩子与女性和男性从分居到共同居住的可能性之间的关系。LAT伙伴关系在有婚前子女的个人中很常见,但迄今尚未得到充分研究。我们的研究不仅关注那些处于单亲关系中的人,还考虑了成为单亲的不同途径。事件历史分析使用来自荷兰亲属小组研究的波1-4。结果表明,分居和丧偶的母亲比以前在同居联盟中没有孩子的妇女更不可能与他们的LAT伴侣过渡到共同居住。以前有过非婚生孩子的母亲更不可能进入同居。男性和女性的结果基本相似。唯一的例外是有孩子的寡妇;对男性来说,这导致他们更有可能转变为与新伴侣同居,而对女性来说,这一机会则更低。研究结果表明,个人的为人父母和结合史与他们后来的伴侣关系的发展有关,而这些模式因性别而异。鉴于当前和未来的伙伴关系分离模式,我们的研究为更好地理解LAT关系如何在不同亚群体中发展提供了见解。
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引用次数: 3
From Living Apart to Living Together: Do Children Born before the Current Partnership Matter? 从分居到同居:在目前的伴侣关系之前出生的孩子重要吗?
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2020-03-31 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2020-07
Roselinde Van der Wiel,Clara H. Mulder,Helga A.G. De Valk
This study examines the association between having children born before the current partnership and women’s and men’s likelihood of transitioning from living apart together (LAT) to co-residing. LAT partnerships are common among individuals with pre-partnership children, but have so far been under-researched. Our study not only focuses on those in LAT relations, but also takes the different pathways to becoming a single parent into account. Event-history analysis was performed using waves 1-4 from the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study. The results indicate that separated and widowed mothers were less likely to transition to co-residence with their LAT partner than childless women who had previously been in a co-residential union. Mothers who had previous out-of-union children were found to be even less likely to enter co-residence. Results were mostly similar for men and women. The only exception was the effect of being widowed with children; for men this resulted in higher chances of transitioning to co-residence with a new partner whereas for women the chances were lower. The findings suggest that individuals’ parenthood and union histories are associated with the development of their later partnerships, and that these patterns vary by gender. Given contemporary and future patterns of partnership separation, our study provides insights for better understanding how LAT relations develop for different sub-populations.
本研究考察了在目前的伴侣关系之前出生的孩子与女性和男性从分居到共同居住的可能性之间的关系。LAT伙伴关系在有婚前子女的个人中很常见,但迄今尚未得到充分研究。我们的研究不仅关注那些处于单亲关系中的人,还考虑了成为单亲的不同途径。事件历史分析使用来自荷兰亲属小组研究的波1-4进行。结果表明,与之前共同居住的无子女妇女相比,分居和丧偶的母亲更不可能与他们的LAT伴侣过渡到共同居住。以前有过非婚生孩子的母亲更不可能进入同居。男性和女性的结果基本相似。唯一的例外是有孩子的寡妇;对于男性来说,这导致了与新伴侣同居的可能性更高,而对于女性来说,这一可能性更低。研究结果表明,个人的为人父母和结合史与他们后来的伴侣关系的发展有关,而这些模式因性别而异。鉴于当前和未来的伙伴关系分离模式,我们的研究为更好地理解LAT关系如何在不同亚群体中发展提供了见解。
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引用次数: 0
Updating Ravenstein: Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in the Wider South East of England 更新Ravenstein:内部移民是英格兰东南部地区人口变化的驱动因素
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2020-03-23 DOI: 10.12765/CPOS-2020-05EN
T. Champion
Key among Ravenstein’s “laws”, derived from extensive analysis of mid-19th century migration patterns in the British Isles, are that the majority of migrants go only a short distance and that migration proceeds stepwise as a sequence of localised population shifts towards the principal centres of commerce and industry. This paper tests these two laws in the 21st century context of counterurbanisation by reference to migration taking place within the Wider South East (WSE) of England, being the region dominated by deconcentration pressures emanating from London. It comprises two sets of empirical analyses using migration data for the period 2001-2016. Firstly, these data are aggregated to a set of broadly concentric rings around this core and analysed to reveal how much of the net outward shifts of population produced by this migration arises from net movement taking place between adjacent rings as a type of cascade as opposed to leapfrogging directly from the core into a non-adjacent ring. Cascading is found to predominate at this scale, confirming the continued importance of shorter-distance moving. Secondly, the migration data are rendered into a Travel to Work Area (TTWA) framework to examine the extent to which these subdivisions of the WSE perform a type of entrepôt role in helping to shift population outwards from London. Drawing on Ravenstein’s concepts of counties of “transfer” and “absorption”, two measures are developed for revealing how the net inflow to a particular TTWA from rings closer to the core compares numerically with the net outflow from that TTWA to the rings further away from it. The derived transfer and absorption rates are then used to classify the TTWAs into four groups according to whether their scores on each are above or below average. It is found that a TTWA’s role varies according to two main dimensions: the concentric zone to which it belongs and the radial sector out of London in which it is located, notably whether the sector has a coastal or landward border. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in Europe: Updating Ravenstein”.
拉文斯坦的“法律”来源于对19世纪中期不列颠群岛移民模式的广泛分析,其中的关键是,大多数移民只走很短的路,而且随着一系列本地化人口向主要的商业和工业中心转移,移民会逐步进行。本文在21世纪反城市化的背景下,通过参考英格兰大东南部(WSE)内发生的移民来检验这两条法律,该地区受到来自伦敦的分散压力的主导。它包括两组使用2001-2016年期间移民数据的实证分析。首先,将这些数据汇总到围绕该核心的一组大致同心的环中,并进行分析,以揭示这种迁移产生的人口净向外转移在多大程度上是由相邻环之间发生的净流动引起的,这是一种级联,而不是直接从核心跳到非相邻环中。级联在这个尺度上占主导地位,证实了短距离移动的持续重要性。其次,移民数据被提供到工作区旅行(TTWA)框架中,以检查WSE的这些细分部门在多大程度上发挥了一种中心作用,帮助人口从伦敦向外转移。根据Ravenstein关于“转移”和“吸收”县的概念,制定了两种衡量标准,以揭示从更靠近核心的环到特定TTWA的净流入与从该TTWA到离它更远的环的净流出在数字上的比较。然后,根据TTWAs的得分是高于还是低于平均水平,使用导出的转移率和吸收率将其分为四组。研究发现,TTWA的作用根据两个主要维度而变化:它所属的同心区和它所处的伦敦以外的辐射区,特别是该区是否有沿海或陆地边界。*这篇文章属于“内部移民作为欧洲区域人口变化的驱动因素:更新拉文斯坦”的特刊。
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引用次数: 2
Updating Ravenstein: Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in the Wider South East of England 更新拉文斯坦:内部移民作为英格兰大东南部地区人口变化的驱动因素
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2020-03-23 DOI: 10.12765/cpos-2020-05
Tony Champion
Key among Ravenstein’s “laws”, derived from extensive analysis of mid-19th century migration patterns in the British Isles, are that the majority of migrants go only a short distance and that migration proceeds stepwise as a sequence of localised population shifts towards the principal centres of commerce and industry. This paper tests these two laws in the 21st century context of counterurbanisation by reference to migration taking place within the Wider South East (WSE) of England, being the region dominated by deconcentration pressures emanating from London. It comprises two sets of empirical analyses using migration data for the period 2001-2016. Firstly, these data are aggregated to a set of broadly concentric rings around this core and analysed to reveal how much of the net outward shifts of population produced by this migration arises from net movement taking place between adjacent rings as a type of cascade as opposed to leapfrogging directly from the core into a non-adjacent ring. Cascading is found to predominate at this scale, confirming the continued importance of shorter-distance moving. Secondly, the migration data are rendered into a Travel to Work Area (TTWA) framework to examine the extent to which these subdivisions of the WSE perform a type of entrepôt role in helping to shift population outwards from London. Drawing on Ravenstein’s concepts of counties of “transfer” and “absorption”, two measures are developed for revealing how the net inflow to a particular TTWA from rings closer to the core compares numerically with the net outflow from that TTWA to the rings further away from it. The derived transfer and absorption rates are then used to classify the TTWAs into four groups according to whether their scores on each are above or below average. It is found that a TTWA’s role varies according to two main dimensions: the concentric zone to which it belongs and the radial sector out of London in which it is located, notably whether the sector has a coastal or landward border. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in Europe: Updating Ravenstein”.
拉文斯坦通过对19世纪中期不列颠群岛移民模式的广泛分析得出了“定律”,其中的关键是,大多数移民只走了很短的一段距离,而且随着当地人口向主要商业和工业中心的转移,移民是逐步进行的。本文在21世纪逆城市化的背景下对这两项法律进行了测试,参考了英格兰大东南地区(WSE)内发生的移民,该地区受到来自伦敦的分散压力的影响。它包括两组实证分析,使用2001-2016年期间的移民数据。首先,将这些数据汇总成围绕核心的一组大致同心圆环,并对其进行分析,以揭示由这种迁移产生的人口净向外迁移中有多少来自相邻环之间的净迁移,这是一种级联,而不是直接从核心跨越式地进入非相邻环。级联在这个尺度上占主导地位,证实了短距离移动的持续重要性。其次,迁移数据被呈现到工作区域旅行(TTWA)框架中,以检查WSE的这些细分在帮助人口从伦敦向外转移方面发挥entrepôt作用的程度。根据Ravenstein的“转移”和“吸收”概念,研究人员开发了两种方法,用于揭示从靠近核心的环向特定TTWA的净流入与从该TTWA向远离它的环的净流出的数值比较。然后,根据ttwa的得分高于或低于平均水平,利用所得的转移率和吸收率将ttwa分为四组。研究发现,TTWA的作用根据两个主要维度而变化:它所属的同心区和它所在的伦敦外的放射状区域,特别是该区域是否有沿海或内陆边界。本文属于特刊“内部移民作为欧洲区域人口变化的驱动因素:更新拉文斯坦”。
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引用次数: 0
Linked Lives across Borders: Economic Remittances to Ageing Parents in Romania 跨国界的生活联系:罗马尼亚年迈父母的经济汇款
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2020-02-18 DOI: 10.12765/CPOS-2020-03
Ionuț Földes
Economic support is widespread among multigenerational Romanian family units separated by national borders and plays an important role for non-migrating family members. From a political economy perspective, remittances are characteristic of such long-term kin networks, which in turn are shaped by socio-structural contexts. This study aims to analyse transfers of remittances in cash and in kind from emigrant Romanian adult children to elderly parents back home. Both forms of upward support are investigated under the lens of family practices across distance. Data from a survey (Intergenerational solidarity in the context of work migration abroad. The situation of elderly left at home) are used to examine the influence on remittances of family commitments over time and of needs and opportunities. The sample includes 2109 parent-child dyads with data provided by elderly parents from all regions of Romania. Results of the logistic regression models show that stronger familial commitments increase the likelihood of remittances in cash and remittances in kind. Findings indicate the importance of filial support before migration and of various forms of intergenerational reciprocity. Our results stress that remittances in cash are more likely to be variable compared with remittances in kind. Both forms of support are part of a much broader set of family practices and intergenerational relationships but express different understandings of filial responsibility.
经济支助在被国界分隔的多代罗马尼亚家庭单位中很普遍,对非移徙家庭成员起着重要作用。从政治经济学的角度来看,汇款是这种长期亲属网络的特征,而这种网络又受到社会结构背景的影响。本研究旨在分析罗马尼亚移民成年子女向国内年迈父母的现金和实物汇款。这两种形式的向上支持进行调查的镜头下的家庭实践跨越距离。数据来自一项调查(海外工作移民背景下的代际团结)。研究人员利用留守老人的情况来考察长期以来家庭承诺以及需求和机会对汇款的影响。样本包括2109对亲子二联体,数据由来自罗马尼亚所有地区的老年父母提供。逻辑回归模型的结果显示,较强的家庭承诺增加了现金汇款和实物汇款的可能性。研究结果表明,迁移前子女的支持和各种形式的代际互惠的重要性。我们的结果强调,与实物汇款相比,现金汇款更有可能是可变的。这两种形式的支持都是更广泛的家庭习俗和代际关系的一部分,但表达了对孝道责任的不同理解。
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引用次数: 2
The ‘Population Problem’ in Pacific Asia 亚太地区的“人口问题”
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2020-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1720177
J. Cleland
In 2018 total fertility was close to 1.0 in South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan; it was slightly higher, at 1.3–1.4, in Hong Kong and Japan, and higher again at around 1.6 births per woman in China....
2018年,韩国、新加坡和台湾的总生育率接近1.0;香港和日本的生育率略高,为1.3-1.4,中国内地的生育率更高,约为每名妇女生育1.6个孩子....
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引用次数: 1
Analytical Family Demography 分析性家庭人口统计
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2020-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1720175
Steve Smallwood
Having reviewed volume 39 of this series (Smallwood 2017), it seems fitting that I should review volume 47, also edited by Robert Schoen, in his fourth outing in that role. The topic of this editio...
在回顾了该系列的第39卷(Smallwood 2017)之后,我似乎应该回顾一下同样由罗伯特·舍恩(Robert Schoen)编辑的第47卷,这是他第四次担任该角色。本期的主题是……
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引用次数: 3
The Hidden Affliction: Sexually Transmitted Infections and Infertility in History 隐藏的痛苦:历史上的性传播感染和不孕症
IF 0.8 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2020-02-14 DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1720179
L. Hall
Infertility is a particularly cryptic issue, even in the present: looked at historically, this is even more the case. While one too often encounters blithe assumptions that in ‘The Past’ women were...
不孕不育是一个特别神秘的问题,即使在现在:从历史上看,情况更是如此。虽然人们经常会遇到轻率的假设,认为在《过去》中,女性是……
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引用次数: 10
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Comparative Population Studies
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